12 月政治局会议传递的信号 20251209 中国政策重心转向高质量发展，不再片面追求经济增速，更强调结构调 整和增长质量，预计"十五"期间经济增长中枢在 4.5%左右，2026 年 增长目标或设在 5%左右。 财政政策将维持积极态势，赤字率或小幅提升至 4%-4.2%，专项债规 模预计与预算持平或略增，但特别国债和超长期特别国债的使用将适度 收缩。 货币政策延续适度宽松基调，但除非外部环境剧变，否则宽松力度有限， 结构性政策工具将继续发力，重点支持科技、绿色等领域，以促进物价 合理回升和金融稳定。 国际经贸方面，中国将灵活应对外部环境变化，若外需承压，将加大逆 周期调节力度。尽管中美关系波动可控，但需警惕欧洲和日本可能出现 的贸易摩擦对中国出口的影响。 消费刺激策略将从耐用品消费扩展到养老消费等新领域，以维持当前消 费水平并开辟新的增长点。政府侧重通过提升服务业供给来挖掘消费潜 力，而非直接刺激需求。 Q&A 摘要 如何解读 2026 年中央政治局会议传递的经济信号？ 2026 年中央政治局会议传递的主要经济信号可以从逆周期与跨周期相结合的 视角进行解读。在中美博弈、社会稳定、结构转型和经济增长四个层次中 ...

1. Market Performance Overnight Stock Indices - US major stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.38% at 47560.29 points, the S&P 500 down 0.09% at 6840.51 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.13% at 23576.49 points [5] - European major stock indices also closed mixed, with the German DAX up 0.45% at 24153.3 points, the French CAC40 down 0.69% at 8052.51 points, and the UK FTSE 100 down 0.03% at 9642.01 points [6] Bond Yields - US Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 2 - year yield up 4.80 basis points to 3.615%, the 3 - year up 4.84 basis points to 3.652%, the 5 - year up 4.73 basis points to 3.788%, the 10 - year up 2.35 basis points to 4.188%, and the 30 - year up 0.81 basis points to 4.809% [6] Commodities - International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures up 0.45% at $4236.6 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 4.72% at $61.16 per ounce. Brent crude oil futures fell 0.61% to $62.11 per barrel [6] - London base metals all declined, with LME aluminum down 1.47% at $2845.50 per ton, LME copper down 1.42% at $11470.00 per ton, etc. [8] 2. Important Macroeconomic News China - Premier Li Qiang emphasized China's commitment to open - cooperation, stating confidence in achieving annual economic goals, with the economy set to maintain a stable and positive trend [10] Australia - RBA Governor Bullock highlighted upside inflation risks, stating that inflation and employment data will be crucial for the February meeting. The possibility of tightening policy was discussed, and a data - driven approach will be taken for future rate decisions [10] US - ADP's weekly employment report showed that private - sector employers added an average of 4750 jobs per week in the four weeks ending November 22 [10] 3. Futures Market News Energy and Chemical Futures - As of December 5, 2025, polyethylene social sample warehouse inventory was 45.65 million tons, down 2.99 million tons from the previous period, a 6.14% decrease. Chinese polyethylene import warehouse inventory decreased by 6.59% month - on - month and 9.83% year - on - year [13] - Iraq set the official selling price of Basra Medium crude oil for North and South America in January at a $1.15 discount to the Argus sour crude price, and for Asia at a $1.05 discount to the Oman/Dubai average price [13] - EIA's short - term energy outlook report predicted US crude oil production to be 13.85 million barrels per day in December, 13.86 million in November, and 13.71 million in January [14] Metal Futures - Chongqing launched a yellow alert for heavy pollution on December 9, affecting some recycled aluminum enterprises, which have started to reduce production or shut down [17] - A polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform, Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd., was established on December 9, 2025, with a registered capital of 3 billion yuan [17] Black - Series Futures - The General Administration of Market Supervision issued production license implementation rules for 24 industrial products, effective April 1, 2026 [20] - HeSteel Group's first - round inquiry price for silicon - manganese in December was 5700 yuan per ton, lower than the November price. The purchase volume was 14700 tons, also lower than in November [20] - Coking enterprises agreed to implement production cuts of at least 30% to ease supply pressure and stabilize prices, and to reduce or stop purchasing high - priced coal [20] - The Henan Bureau of National Mine Safety Supervision ordered Anyang Dazhong Coal Industry Co., Ltd. to suspend production for 1 day due to major accident hazards [21] - The China Iron and Steel Association warned that the recent rise in iron ore prices is due to capital speculation, and the high inventory and weak demand will suppress price increases [21] Agricultural Futures - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' December report on China's agricultural product supply - demand situation showed that the outlook for soybeans remained unchanged from November. High - protein soybeans in Northeast China are in short supply, while low - protein soybeans have a surplus [23] - As of December 7, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 90.3%, and the first - crop corn sowing rate was 71.3% [24] - China's imported soybean arrivals in December are expected to decline slightly. As of December 6, the average oil - mill operating rate was 57.42%, down 4.79% from the previous week [24] - Argentina reduced export taxes on soybeans, soybean by - products, wheat, barley, corn, and sorghum [25] - Brazil's expected exports of soybeans, soybean meal, and corn in December are 3.33 million tons, 1.83 million tons, and 6.3 million tons respectively, higher than previous forecasts [25] - The USDA maintained its forecast for US 2025/2026 soybean production at 4.253 billion bushels, ending stocks at 290 million bushels, and yield at 53 bushels per acre. It also kept the forecasts for Argentina and Brazil's soybean production unchanged [26] 4. Financial Market News Stock Markets - A - shares: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.37% to 3909.52 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.39%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.61%. Resource and Hainan - related stocks declined, while CPO concepts and some other sectors strengthened [28] - Hong Kong stocks: The Hang Seng Index fell 1.29% to 25434.23 points, with losses in sectors such as non - ferrous metals and semiconductors [28] - As of now, 1465 A - share listed companies have conducted share repurchases this year, with a total repurchase amount of 140.538 billion yuan. About 80% of these stocks have risen this year, and about 81.91% were profitable in the first three quarters [28] - Many state - owned banks have announced and implemented mid - year dividend plans, with the total cash dividend of the six major state - owned banks expected to exceed 200 billion yuan [29] - 23 listed securities firms have implemented mid - year dividends this year, with a total of 10.683 billion yuan distributed. Another 14 have announced plans to distribute 11.133 billion yuan [29] - In 2025, institutional research on the Beijing Stock Exchange increased significantly, with over 95% of companies being surveyed. YiFangDa Fund is authorized to launch an ETF tracking the HKEX Technology 100 Index [30] Overseas News - The UNCTAD reported that global trade will grow by about 7% (an increase of $2.2 trillion) in 2025, reaching a record $35 trillion [35] - The Fed is expected to cut rates for the third time, with market expectations of a 25 - basis - point cut. Trump said he would support a large - scale rate cut and might adjust tariffs [35] - ADP data showed that US private employers added an average of 4750 jobs per week in the four weeks ending November 22, ending four weeks of job losses. US job openings in October were 7.67 million, exceeding expectations [36] - Ukrainian President Zelensky is ready for elections and requests assistance from the US and Europe. The elections can be prepared within 60 - 90 days [37] - The Swiss government withdrew an incorrect announcement about the US tariff cut on Swiss goods. The Bank of Japan will gradually adjust monetary policy, and the RBA maintained the interest rate at 3.60% [37] International Stock Markets - US major stock indices closed mixed, with some large - cap stocks leading the decline. Japan's IPO financing reached the highest level since 2018, and Medline plans to raise up to $5.37 billion through an IPO [40] - SpaceX plans an IPO in mid - to - late 2026, depending on market conditions [42] Commodities - Precious metals rose, while oil prices fell due to concerns about increased US production and expected supply surplus in 2026. Base metals declined, and iron ore prices are under pressure from high inventory and weak demand [43] - EIA's report adjusted the price forecasts for Brent and WTI crude oil in 2025 and 2026 [44] - Russia's November crude oil production was over 100,000 barrels per day below the target, the largest gap in over two years [46] Bonds - The domestic bond market recovered, with bond yields falling and futures prices rising. US Treasury yields rose due to factors such as Fed policy expectations and inflation [47] Forex - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 20 basis points to 7.0693 at 16:30, and the US dollar index rose 0.14%. Non - US currencies mostly declined, except for the Australian dollar and the offshore RMB [48] 5. Upcoming Economic Indicators and Events Economic Indicators - Key indicators to be released include Japan's December Reuters Tankan index, China's November CPI/PPI, etc. [51] Events - Key events include the expiration of 793 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in China, speeches by central bank governors, and rate decisions by the Bank of Canada, etc. [53]

来源：环球网 【环球网财经综合报道】北京时间12月10日凌晨，美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.38%报 47560.29点，标普500指数跌0.09%报6840.51点，纳指涨0.13%报23576.49点。摩根大通跌超4%，波音跌 近3%，领跌道指。万得美国科技七巨头指数涨0.14%，特斯拉、谷歌涨超1%。 消息面上，ADP最新数据显示，截至11月22日的四周内，美国私营雇主平均每周新增4750个就业岗位， 结束了此前连续四周的就业流失。另外，美国10月JOLTS职位空缺767万人，远超预期的711.7万人。 德国电视一台近日发文称，投资者期待美联储在周三晚的议息会议中降息，以便提振股市，尤其是美国 股市，如道琼斯指数和标普500指数。 但报道也提到，市场观察家警告谨慎对待。许多投资者已经预计降息，因此他们可能会利用这一机会锁 定利润。此外，考虑到美国顽固的通胀，货币宽松政策并未确定。同时，部分市场专家也保持谨慎，投 资组合管理公司QC Partners的Thomas Altmann表示："股价上涨时，投资者会更加谨慎。目前，鲜有人 愿意承担重大新风险。" ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，上大股份（301522.SZ）12月10日在投资者互动平台表示，公司已与航天科技/航天科工集 团下属院所开展合作，已成为其高温合金等材料的合格供应商，产品主要用于固体火箭发动机壳体、液 体火箭发动机热端部件、火箭平衡舵轴等结构件和其他航天器耐高温、高强度关键零部件的制造。公司 参与了多型号相关航天发动机等装备所用特种合金产品的试制验证和批产交付工作。 ...

格隆汇12月10日｜波音公布，11月交付44架飞机，较10月的53架下降17%；11月净新增订单126架。今 年首11个月，波音累计交付了537架飞机。 ...

【经济日报：#日本多行业陷入稀土焦虑#】#日本担忧中国稀土出口管制#近日，有日本经济学界人士指 出，日本政府和产业界十分关注中国稀土相关物项出口管制的工作情况。日本近年来加快实施供应来源 多元化、替代材料研发、国家储备强化，以及回收利用等措施，以摆脱对中国稀土依赖。相关统计显 示，日本进口稀土对中国的依赖度从约90%降至目前的约60%。但与此同时，日本在关键品类上的依赖 仍然高度集中。用于电动汽车驱动电机钕磁体的镝（Dy）、铽（Tb）等重稀土几乎100%依赖中国供 应，一旦受限，日本经济仍将面临较大冲击。分析认为，一旦中国实施出口管制，日本汽车、电子零部 件、风力发电、医疗设备及航空航天五大领域将首当其冲。汽车产业方面，电动汽车和混合动力汽车的 驱动电机依赖钕磁体，日本车企过去曾因稀土短缺暂停部分车型生产，而替代技术尚未商业化；电子领 域中，智能手机、半导体制造设备和硬盘驱动器普遍使用稀土，尤其是荧光材料和磁性材料难以替代， 而中国在精炼环节占据压倒性优势；风力发电设备使用的高性能磁体依赖度也较高，替代技术存在效率 降低和成本上升的问题；医疗设备领域，核磁共振成像（MRI）等装置使用的强磁体对稀土具有不可替 ...

中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理何立峰12月9日下午在京会见美国科恩集团高级顾问艾伦。何立峰表示，今年以来中美两国元首多次通话并在韩国釜山 成功会晤，达成一系列重要共识。双方应在两国元首战略引领下，坚持正确方向，保持合作势头，不断拉长合作清单、压缩问题清单。中国即将迈入"十五 五"规划开局之年，将持续扩大高水平对外开放，欢迎更多美国企业来华投资兴业，力促中美经贸关系平稳健康可持续发展。（新华社） 《民用无人驾驶航空器实名登记和激活要求》和《民用无人驾驶航空器系统运行识别规范》两项强制性国家标准近日批准发布，两项标准将于2026年5月1日 起正式实施。据介绍，两项强制性国家标准的发布实施，将从技术上解决无人机"谁能飞"和"谁在飞"等问题，支撑《无人驾驶航空器飞行管理暂行条例》有 效实施，为无人机行业安全有序发展提供了重要保障。（新华社） 李强同主要国际经济组织负责人举行"1+10"对话会 何立峰会见美国科恩集团高级顾问艾伦时指出中美应不断拉长合作清单为两国经贸关系打开新的合作空间 两项无人机强制性新国标发布将从技术上解决"谁能飞""谁在飞"等问题 12月9日，国务院总理李强在北京钓鱼台国宾馆同主要国际经济组织负 ...

韩加君摄（人民视觉） 经济大省因具有产业体系完备、市场规模大、辐射能力强等综合优势，在全国经济大盘中一直扮演着重 要角色。2025年临近收官，经济大省继续发挥"顶梁柱"作用，在"稳"的基础上迸发出"进"的动能。近 日，多地陆续出台"十五五"规划建议，经济大省未来怎么干的"路线图"愈加明晰。 挑大梁 "走在前" 中国经济版图中，广东、江苏、山东、浙江、四川、河南、湖北、福建、上海、湖南等10省份，以占全 国近两成的面积，贡献了全国超六成的GDP，成为稳住全国经济基本盘的"压舱石"和高质量发展"火车 头"。 今年前三季度，GDP总量居前十的经济大省表现突出，9个省份增速全部高于或比肩全国平均水平，展 现出强劲的发展动能。总量方面，经济大省也迎来新突破。如江苏GDP首次在前三季度突破10万亿大 关；上海、湖南首次突破4万亿。至此，经济十强省前三季度GDP全部跨入"四万亿俱乐部"，经济大省 的入门门槛再次拉高。 能核心产业规模超过4400亿元、规模以上工业企业数字化转型数量突破6万家等系列量化目标。 在近期多地公布的"十五五"规划建议中，新兴产业和未来产业成为经济大省的布局重点。浙江提到，加 快人工智能、新材料、新能 ...

近日，有日本经济学界人士指出，日本政府和产业界十分关注中国稀土相关物项出口管制的工作情况。 转自：经济日报 日本近年来加快实施供应来源多元化、替代材料研发、国家储备强化，以及回收利用等措施，以摆脱对 中国稀土依赖。相关统计显示，日本进口稀土对中国的依赖度从约90%降至目前的约60%。但与此同 时，日本在关键品类上的依赖仍然高度集中。用于电动汽车驱动电机钕磁体的镝（Dy）、铽（Tb）等 重稀土几乎100%依赖中国供应，一旦受限，日本经济仍将面临较大冲击。 分析认为，一旦中国实施出口管制，日本汽车、电子零部件、风力发电、医疗设备及航空航天五大领域 将首当其冲。汽车产业方面，电动汽车和混合动力汽车的驱动电机依赖钕磁体，日本车企过去曾因稀土 短缺暂停部分车型生产，而替代技术尚未商业化；电子领域中，智能手机、半导体制造设备和硬盘驱动 器普遍使用稀土，尤其是荧光材料和磁性材料难以替代，而中国在精炼环节占据压倒性优势；风力发电 设备使用的高性能磁体依赖度也较高，替代技术存在效率降低和成本上升的问题；医疗设备领域，核磁 共振成像（MRI）等装置使用的强磁体对稀土具有不可替代性；航空航天领域的发动机及防务装备广泛 使用稀土合金 ...

Core Insights - The integration of AI and technology in manufacturing processes is significantly reducing production costs and enhancing product performance, establishing a modern industrial system foundation [1] Group 1: Smart and Green Initiatives - Nanjing Steel's smart operations center utilizes digital twin technology to enhance production efficiency and reduce costs, showcasing the industry's shift towards intelligent manufacturing [2] - Langbo Technology is improving profitability through increased automation in production lines, enhancing both production efficiency and product quality traceability [2] - Haiyang Technology has implemented smart manufacturing in the curtain fabric industry, reducing resource consumption and emissions through innovative production lines [3] - GCL-Poly's lithium battery division emphasizes green manufacturing, achieving approximately 50% reductions in investment costs and energy consumption through a waste-free production process [3] Group 2: Technological Innovation - The modern industrial system's advancement towards intelligence and sustainability relies on the fusion of technological and industrial innovation, with companies acting as key links in this process [4] - Aviation engine manufacturing involves complex systems requiring advanced materials and manufacturing techniques, with companies like Hangya Technology focusing on precision processing and innovation [4] - The development of R5-grade mooring chains by Yaxing Anchor Chain was driven by understanding downstream demands and collaborating with research institutions [5] Group 3: Balancing Innovation and Market Needs - Companies must adapt to customer application scenarios and maintain competitive costs while ensuring product efficiency and ease of use [6] - The relationship between technology and product development must be balanced, with a focus on commercial viability and problem-solving capabilities [6]