行业研究 市场研究部 2025 年 3 月 11 日 交运行业周报（2025/3/3-3/9） 行情综述 上周沪深 300 指数上涨 1.39%，申万交运行业指数小幅小幅小涨 0.15%，落后大盘 1.24 个百分点，在 31 个申万一级行业中排名第 26。上周二级细分行业中，物流板块（+0.70%）、航空机场板块 （+0.48%）和航运港口板块（+0.45%）实现上涨，铁路公路板块 （-1.00%）出现回落。上周三级行业中，涨幅最大的三个板块为公 路货运（+6.53%）、仓储物流（+1.09%）和航运（+1.05%）；跌 幅最大的三个板块为高速公路（-2.56%）、港口（-0.61%）和原材 料供应链服务（-0.19%）。 个股：上周交运板块 132 家上市公司中，71 家实现上涨，涨幅前三 为华光源海(+15.14%)、传化智联（+9.52%)和怡亚通(+8.21%)；跌 幅前三为皖通高速（-8.70%)、粤高速 A（-8.35%)和普路通(-5.76%)。 估值方面：截至 2025 年 3 月 9 日，申万交运板块 PE（TTM） 16.35 倍，位于近 5 年的 66.06%分位点。 投资建议 根据 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an initial investment rating of "Buy" for the company [4][49]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading player in the highway operation sector, focusing on nationwide highway network development and has a strong cash dividend yield [5][8]. - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.81% in revenue and 12.65% in net profit from 2016 to 2023, indicating robust growth [5][18]. - The company emphasizes investor returns, having distributed a total of 14.066 billion yuan in cash dividends from 2017 to 2023, with an average annual payout ratio of 45.50% [5][25]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - The company, a subsidiary of China Merchants Group, has established a national highway network with over 14,700 kilometers of operational highways covering 22 provincial regions [5][12]. - It has invested in 26 highway companies, with 16 being listed on A and H shares, enhancing its market presence [5][30]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of 12,379 million yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 27.21% [4][48]. - The projected net profit for 2024 is 5,795 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 14.36% compared to the previous year [4][49]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 15.1x, 15.5x, and 14.9x respectively [4][49]. Business Segments - The company operates in three main segments: investment and operation, traffic technology, and smart transportation, with the investment and operation segment contributing 80.67% of revenue in the first half of 2024 [15][36]. - The traffic technology segment has shown a revenue CAGR of 9.14% from 2018 to 2023, indicating a growing importance in the overall business model [36][41]. Growth Drivers - The company is expected to benefit from the integration of new assets and the recovery of transportation demand as the macroeconomic environment improves [7][46]. - The ongoing expansion of road assets and the completion of key projects, such as the Beijing-Tianjin-Tanggu expressway upgrade, are anticipated to drive revenue growth [7][46].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an initial investment rating of "Buy" for the company [4][49]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the highway operation sector, focusing on nationwide highway network development and has a strong cash dividend yield [5][8]. - The company has a robust growth trajectory, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.81% in revenue and 12.65% in net profit from 2016 to 2023 [5][18]. - The company emphasizes investor returns, having distributed a total of 14.066 billion yuan in cash dividends from 2017 to 2023, with an average annual payout ratio of 45.50% [5][25]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, a subsidiary of China Merchants Group, operates over 14,700 kilometers of highways across 22 provincial regions in China and holds stakes in 26 highway companies, including 16 listed firms [5][12][29]. - The average remaining toll collection period for the company's controlled highways is 12.96 years, with over 80% of assets having more than 10 years left, providing ample time for traffic growth and revenue generation [30]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenue growth, with expected revenues of 12,379 million yuan in 2024, 12,989 million yuan in 2025, and 13,649 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 27.21%, 4.92%, and 5.08% respectively [4][48]. - The projected net profit for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 5,795 million yuan, 5,665 million yuan, and 5,878 million yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 15.1x, 15.5x, and 14.9x [6][49]. Business Segments - The company operates in three main segments: investment and operation, traffic technology, and smart transportation, with the investment and operation segment contributing 80.67% of revenue in the first half of 2024 [15][36]. - The traffic technology segment has shown a steady increase in revenue contribution, rising from 29.32% in 2018 to 34.19% in 2023, indicating a growing importance of this segment in the overall business model [41][42]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic highway operation sector, continuously enhancing its asset scale and operational efficiency, which is expected to drive further revenue and profit growth [8][49]. - The company has a diversified revenue structure, with significant contributions from core assets such as the Yongtaiwen Expressway and the Jingtaix Expressway, which accounted for 20.35% and 14.77% of revenue in 2023 respectively [30].

Group 1 - The government work report for 2025 proposes a more proactive fiscal policy, with a deficit rate set at around 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, and a deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, up by 1.6 trillion yuan from last year [2][24] - The report emphasizes "appropriate monetary easing," continuing the previous year's stance, and highlights the need for timely adjustments in reserve requirement ratios and interest rates to maintain ample liquidity [2][25] - In the real estate sector, the report aims to stabilize the market and prevent debt defaults among property companies, indicating a focus on maintaining housing market stability [2][26] Group 2 - The report highlights the importance of new technologies in the photovoltaic industry, particularly in addressing the current challenges of slowing demand and oversupply, with a focus on BC and HJT technologies for 2025 [3] - Supply-side reforms are expected to be a major investment theme in the photovoltaic sector, with global demand growth projected at around 10% in 2025, significantly slower than in 2024 [3] - Companies with established positions in the Asia-Pacific and Latin American markets are recommended for investment, as they are likely to benefit from the growing demand in these regions [3] Group 3 - The report indicates a significant increase in AI capital expenditure, with the U.S. government planning to invest $500 billion in AI infrastructure, and China expected to invest at least 500 billion yuan in AIDC over the next three years [4] - The demand for backup power systems driven by AIDC is projected to double, with a significant need for diesel generators in smart computing centers, indicating a robust growth opportunity for domestic manufacturers [4] - The report suggests focusing on domestic OEM manufacturers with pricing power and those linked to leading generator sets, as they are expected to benefit from the increasing demand [4][8] Group 4 - The semiconductor sector is experiencing a price increase for NAND storage, driven by rising demand from the smartphone and PC industries, with expectations for continued price hikes into the second quarter [10][40] - The AI industry's explosive growth is significantly increasing the demand for storage and computing power, particularly for large language models, which require advanced storage systems [10][40] - The report identifies photon chips as a promising solution for enhancing computing capabilities, addressing performance and energy consumption challenges in traditional electronic systems [10][41]

水皮杂谈 一家之言 兼听则明 偏听则暗 跌破万亿 每日看盘 今日A股三大指数缩量盘整，两市共成交9 6 6 4亿，较前个交易日缩量1 8 1 9亿。 其中沪指下跌 0 . 2 4%，收报3 1 6 0 . 7 6点； 深成指几乎平盘，收报9 7 9 6 . 1 8点； 创业板指上涨0 . 3 6%，收报 1 9 8 2 . 4 6点。 市场的活跃度在肉眼可见的继续降低，今天的成交量是自9 2 4政策市以来第一次跌破一万亿， 连续7 3个交易日成交额突破万亿大关后，有史以来持续时间最长的单日成交额超万亿元纪录在 第7 4个交易日被终结。随着成交量的萎缩，各大指数基本上都进入了9 2 7和9 3 0这两个交易日 之间的缺口位置进行补缺。 盘面上，全天两市2 9 9 0家上涨，2 0 0 9家下跌，很勉强在2点4 3分之后拉起来，5 1 0 0 5 0和 5 1 0 3 0 0均在同一时间出现了一波放量，某队维稳的意图明显。中位数涨了0 . 3 3%，微盘股指数 在早盘跳水大跌3 . 0 2%后最终上涨0 . 8 9%。 板块上，采掘行业、贵金属、有色金属、软件开发、医疗器械等涨幅居前，家用轻工、银行、 铁路公路、 ...

今天有一个里程碑式的事件，比特币的价格正式站上了10万美元。 其实半个多月前价格就已经来到97000附近，但随后在整数关口前进行了一段时间的调整，调整的这两个星期成了山寨币的窗口期，大量二线蓝筹蹦蹦跳 跳的完成了100-300%的涨幅。然后就是今天，带头大哥正式进入6位数时代。 多年前币圈曾经喊出过一个振聋发聩的口号，一币一墅，这在当时被当做是遥不可及的妄言妄语，但现如今已经摸得着边了，73万已经可以覆盖别墅的建 安成本，这一轮行情我觉得已经差不多了，等到4年后、8年后我们到时候再看看一个币能换到哪里的别墅。 今天刷到一个新闻，美图公司把持有的加密货币都卖了，盈利7900万美元，打算拿来给股东们特别分红。美团是2021年3月、4月入场的，btc和eth各买了 5000万美元，加起来1个亿。eth的成本是1600+，btc的成本是56000+。 其实这个btc买的不便宜，之后冲高到69000后开始回调，一度都跌到16000，美图浮亏严重。当时很多美图股东都在骂蔡文胜拿公司的钱瞎搞，不过在今 年又变成了"真香"。借着这波行情蔡文胜获利了结，最终盈利接近80%下车，浮盈不算赢，拿钱离场才是真赢。 我最近也开始止盈， ...