在美国对部分国家实施新一轮关税政策后，市场对美国经济前景愈发担忧。投资者普遍认为，进口商品关 税成本最终将转嫁至美国消费者，抬高生活成本，抑制消费意愿；与此同时，企业面临更高的运营成本和 利润压缩，经济增长动能可能减弱。在这样的背景下，市场对美联储降息的期待不断升温。 值得关注的是，最新公布的3月通胀数据显示，美国通胀压力正持续缓解，为降息提供了政策空间。美国 劳工部公布数据显示，3月CPI同比上涨2.4%，为过去7个月最低，低于预期的2.5%，也较前值2.8%明显 回落；环比下降0.1%，为2024年6月以来首次为负，创2020年5月以来最低纪录。 3月核心CPI同比上涨2.8%，为连续第二个月回落，创下自2021年3月以来新低，低于市场预期的3%，也 低于前值3.1%；环比上涨0.1%，低于预期的0.3%，同样创下2024年6月以来的最低水平。 尽管通胀数据趋缓带来乐观预期，但市场普遍认为仍需保持谨慎。关税政策等外部变量可能在未来数月重 新点燃通胀压力，从而干扰美联储的政策路径。总之，美联储在通胀与经济增长之间正面临艰难权衡，未 来政策走向仍需密切关注经济数据与外部政策变动的动态演变。 欢迎长按识别下方二 ...

棱镜 . 以下文章来源于棱镜 ，作者肖望 腾讯新闻出品栏目，《棱镜》聚焦泛财经深度记录。 "避风港"为何失灵？ 作者 | 肖望 编辑 | 孙春芳 来源 | 棱镜 （ID：lengjing_qqfinance） 9 90元/克！这是4月11日一早金饰品牌周大福公布的首饰金价，创下历史新高。两天时间 内大涨近60元/克，连见多了世面的周大福店员也不由得连连感叹：太疯狂了。 首饰金价破千仅一步之遥，另一边周六福品牌的999 .9足金饰品价已抢先一步，挂牌1 010 元/克。 金饰价格创历史新高，背后是国际金价的深"V"型反转：4月3日至4月7日，国际金价连续 三个交易日暴跌，区间跌幅达到7.08%；但从4月8日至4月11日，金价又快速反弹，并创 下历史新高3263美元/盎司。上海黄金交易所报价也从4月7日开盘的7 03元/克拉涨至762 元/克，5天上涨近60元/克，涨幅约8. 40%。 这样的波动幅度，在黄金市场中并不常见。而高盛、瑞银等国际投行还进一步上调了对黄 金的价格预期。 投资者对黄金的押注热情高涨，甚至有投资者贷款炒金，试图抓住黄金的"历史机遇"，短 短五天里就经历了巨亏到大赚的两极反转。 黄金大跌源于 ...

高盛最新报告对美国经济前景发出严峻警告：美国经济今年逼近0增长，将通胀预期大幅上调至3.5%左 右。高盛还认为美元目前依然被高估约20%。 据上证报消息，美东时间4月9日美股盘中，美国总统特朗普在社交平台发帖表示，已授权对部分国家实 施90天的关税暂停措施，在此期间大幅降低关税至10%。 在特朗普宣布暂停部分关税90天之后，高盛虽然撤销了发布不到两小时的经济衰退预测，但在最新报告 中，高盛称，这并不意味着前景乐观。 美国经济逼近0增长，衰退风险高企 高盛预计，根据3月消费者价格指数(CPI)和生产者价格指数(PPI)数据，核心个人消费支出(PCE)价格指 数同比上涨2.52%，但在关税基准情景下，预计未来六个月将加速至3.5%左右。 报告称，关键问题在于长期通胀预期的稳定性。多项调查显示通胀预期明显上升，而基于市场的通胀指 标仍与美联储2%的目标一致。美联储官员需要更多数据来评估是否应将关税驱动的价格上涨视为一次 性水平变化或更持久的通胀上升。 高盛基准情景预测美联储将在6月、7月和9月各降息25个基点，以应对劳动力市场更严重下滑的风险。 如果增长比预期稍好，且通胀的担忧仍存在，美联储今年可能不会降息。 如果 ...

高盛董事会批准了至多400亿美元的 股票回购计划。 ...

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs (GS.N) reported first-quarter equity trading revenue of $4.19 billion, exceeding expectations of $3.8 billion [1] Group 1 - The company's equity trading revenue significantly surpassed market expectations, indicating strong performance in this segment [1]

智通财经4月14日电，高盛董事会批准了至多400亿美元的股票回购计划。 ...

高盛第一季度FICC销售和交易收入44亿美元，预估44.7亿美元。董事会批准了一项规模高达400亿美元 的股票回购计划。 ...

智通财经4月14日电，高盛第一季度净营收150.6亿美元，同比增长6%，预估为147.6亿美元。 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs and UBS have raised their gold price forecasts, expecting prices to reach $3,700 and $3,500 per ounce by the end of the year, respectively, driven by stronger-than-expected central bank demand and gold's role as a hedge against economic recession and geopolitical risks [1][3] - Goldman Sachs analysts predict that central banks may purchase an average of 80 tons of gold per month this year, up from their previous estimate of 70 tons, reinforcing their bullish stance on gold [3] - UBS anticipates strong demand across various segments, including central banks and retail investors, due to changing global trade and geopolitical conditions, which necessitate the allocation of safe-haven assets [3][4] Group 2 - Recent inflows into gold-backed ETFs have unexpectedly surged, reflecting new demand from investors seeking to hedge against recession risks and declines in risk asset prices [3] - Goldman Sachs economists estimate a 45% probability of a U.S. economic recession, which could accelerate ETF inflows and push gold prices to $3,880 per ounce by year-end [3] - The liquidity situation may weaken, potentially amplifying gold price movements, partly due to limited growth in mine supply and significant gold holdings by central banks and ETFs [4]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **Equities** market and the **bond market** dynamics, highlighting the uncertainty in the current economic environment [1][12]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Impact of Tariffs**: The current tariff situation remains complex, with tariffs on China at **145%** and most other countries facing **10%** tariffs, leading to ongoing uncertainty in economic activity and financial markets [4][10]. 2. **Market Sentiment**: There is a bearish sentiment in the market characterized by lower USD and equities, while yields are rising sharply, indicating a breakdown in the typical relationship during risk-off periods [5][6]. 3. **Recession Risks**: The probability of a recession is estimated at **45%**, with a negative demand shock affecting GDP growth [4][10]. 4. **Investor Behavior**: Individual investors have been actively buying stocks, driven by employment stability, but significant selling is expected only if job losses rise substantially [26]. 5. **Inflation Expectations**: Consumer expectations for inflation are at their highest since the **1990s**, which could influence market dynamics [66]. 6. **Gold Performance**: Gold has seen a **21%** increase year-to-date, with forecasts for prices to reach **$3,700/toz** by year-end due to strong central bank demand and recession risks [68]. Additional Important Points 1. **Market Volatility**: Current volatility levels are comparable to those seen during the COVID-19 pandemic and the Global Financial Crisis, indicating heightened market fear [6][19]. 2. **Hedge Fund Positioning**: Hedge funds are currently positioned with low leverage, suggesting a cautious approach in the market [23]. 3. **S&P 500 Predictions**: A survey indicated that **44%** of clients expect the S&P 500 to reach levels between **4,500-4,800** this year, while **39%** anticipate it to remain below **5,100** [22]. 4. **Sector Performance**: Industrials are trading at the **91st percentile** of historical valuations, while cyclical stocks are favored for potential exposure [60]. 5. **Concentration in S&P 500**: The market cap concentration in the top 10 S&P 500 constituents has remained stable, raising concerns about complacency regarding their earnings amidst economic challenges [62]. Conclusion The current market environment is characterized by significant uncertainty due to tariffs, inflation expectations, and recession risks. Investors are advised to remain cautious and consider the implications of these factors on their investment strategies.