Core Viewpoint - The Cuban National Oil Company has stated that there is no interruption in fuel supply to gas stations in Cuba, refuting claims of a suspension in fuel supply [1] Group 1 - The Cuban National Oil Company issued a statement on social media confirming that fuel supply to gas stations remains uninterrupted [1] - The company addressed rumors regarding a pause in fuel supply, labeling them as false [1]

Core Viewpoint - The sanctions imposed by the U.S. on Russian oil companies have significantly widened the price gap between Urals crude oil and Brent crude oil, indicating a substantial impact on Russia's oil revenue and economic stability [1][4]. Group 1: Price Impact and Revenue Decline - The discount on Urals crude oil has increased from approximately $15 per barrel to over $24 per barrel, leading to a projected 20% year-on-year decline in Russia's energy revenue by 2025 [4]. - In December, the price of Urals crude oil fell to $39.2 per barrel, marking the lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic [4]. - A former Russian energy executive reported that Urals crude oil sold to India has been priced as low as $22 to $25 per barrel, barely covering production costs [5]. Group 2: Fiscal Pressure and Deficit - Russia's fiscal deficit is expected to reach 2.6% of GDP by 2025, five times the planned level, marking the longest deficit period in Putin's tenure [5]. - The Russian government anticipates a significant budget deficit in early 2026 due to reduced energy revenues and increased government spending [6]. - If Urals crude oil prices deviate by $10 from budget expectations, Russia's fiscal revenue could decrease by 1.5 to 1.8 trillion rubles [6]. Group 3: Changes in Export Dynamics - The structure of Russian oil exports has shifted, with a 23% increase in crude oil exports to China in December, while exports to India dropped by 29% [6]. - The number of oil tankers with undisclosed destinations has increased, indicating a rise in floating storage of crude oil [7]. - The use of transshipment points like Egypt and Singapore has surged, as these locations serve as intermediaries for Russian oil exports [9]. Group 4: Long-term Economic Implications - The share of energy revenue in Russia's fiscal budget has decreased from over 50% at its peak to about 24%, the lowest in at least a decade [10]. - The ongoing sanctions are creating a "slow and cumulative squeezing effect" on Russia's fiscal stability, potentially harming long-term economic growth and increasing macroeconomic imbalances [10]. - The reliance on oil revenue remains high, and the current market conditions have left Russia in a vulnerable position [12].

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control announced a relaxation of sanctions on the Venezuelan oil industry, allowing certain transactions related to Venezuelan oil activities [1] - U.S. entities can engage in transportation, export, sale, and storage of oil sourced from Venezuela with the Venezuelan government and its state-owned oil company, provided that contracts comply with U.S. law [1] - Transactions must ensure that funds are paid into a foreign government deposit fund or other accounts designated by the U.S. Treasury, as per an executive order signed by President Trump on January 9 [1] Group 2 - The executive order aims to "protect" Venezuelan oil revenues held in U.S. Treasury accounts from being seized or entangled in legal proceedings [1] - U.S. Vice President Pence stated that Venezuela can only sell oil if it aligns with U.S. interests, indicating that the U.S. controls Venezuela through financial means [1] - The U.S. has implemented multiple rounds of stringent sanctions on the Venezuelan oil sector while adjusting policies through licensing documents issued by the Office of Foreign Assets Control [1]

中国外交部发言人郭嘉昆30日主持例行记者会。 （文章来源：中国新闻网） 郭嘉昆：我们注意到有关报道，中方一贯反对非法单边制裁，关于中国能源政策及相关具体问题，建议 向主管部门进行询问。 有记者提问：委内瑞拉立法机构全国代表大会在例行会议上通过一项法案，允许私人和外国投资委内瑞 拉石油行业，美国此前也解除了一些相关制裁。中国企业是否考虑重新评估或扩大在委内瑞拉能源领域 的投资？ ...

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock index opened lower and continued to decline, closing down 2.08% at 27,387.11 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 2.1% to 5,718.18 points [1] - Major technology stocks experienced declines, with Alibaba down 2.37%, Tencent down 2.57%, and JD Group down 1.92% [1] - Gold stocks plummeted, with Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining down over 14% and Shandong Gold Mining down over 14% [1] - Lithium mining stocks also fell, with Ganfeng Lithium down nearly 11% and Tianqi Lithium down over 10% [1] - Education and storage chip concepts rose, with New Oriental up 5.52% and China Spring up 22.76% [1] Company Insights - Guoquan (02517.HK) expects revenue of approximately 7.75 billion to 7.85 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 19.8% to 21.3%, with net profit projected at 443 million to 463 million yuan, up 83.7% to 92.0% [2] - Hengrui Medicine (01276.HK) has received acceptance for a new indication application for its innovative drug, which may provide a new treatment option for patients with unresectable liver cancer [2] - Gilead Sciences-B (01672.HK) reported positive top-line results for its oral FASN inhibitor in treating acne [2] - Baiaosaitu-B (02315.HK) anticipates revenue of 1.369 billion to 1.389 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 39.61% to 41.65%, with net profit expected to rise by 384.26% to 443.88% [2] - Nocera (09969.HK) expects total revenue of approximately 2.365 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year growth of about 134%, and aims to achieve profitability with a net profit of around 633 million yuan [2] Financial Projections - Dazhong Public Utilities (01635.HK) projects net profit between 350 million to 500 million yuan in 2025, an increase of 50.12% to 114.46% [3] - Chunli Medical (01858.HK) expects net profit of 245 million to 288 million yuan in 2025, a rise of 96.01% to 130.41% [3] - Yujian Xiaomian (02408.HK) anticipates net profit between 100 million to 115 million yuan in 2025, an increase of approximately 64.7% to 89.5% [4] - China Railway (00390.HK) has recently won several major projects with a total bid amount of approximately 43.292 billion yuan [5] - Sunny Optical Technology (02382.HK) expects net profit between 4.5886 billion to 4.7235 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 70.0% to 75.0% [6] - New天绿色能源 (00956.HK) expects to complete a cumulative power generation of 15.2104 million MWh in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.71% [7] Institutional Views - Guoyuan International suggests that Hong Kong stocks may continue to outperform U.S. stocks due to fiscal cliff and geopolitical factors, benefiting from a trend of diminishing dollar credit [8] - Huatai Securities believes that technology and cyclical "consumables" are likely to lead the rebound in Hong Kong stocks, supported by improved macro data and stable funding conditions [9] - CITIC Securities anticipates that the spring market for Hong Kong stocks will continue, with large-cap stocks showing relative gains and growth sectors supported by policy performing better [9]

1月30日，外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。 有外媒记者提问，委内瑞拉立法机构全国代表大会在例行会议上通过一项法案，允许私人和外国投资委 内瑞拉石油行业，美国此前也解除了一些相关制裁。中国企业是否考虑重新评估或扩大在委内瑞拉能源 领域的投资？ 郭嘉昆资料图。 图源：外交部网站 "我们注意到有关报道，中方一贯反对非法单边制裁，关于中国能源政策及相关具体问题，建议向主管 部门进行询问。"郭嘉昆说。 来源：北京日报客户端 责任编辑：刘万里 SF014 1月30日，外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。 有外媒记者提问，委内瑞拉立法机构全国代表大会在例行会议上通过一项法案，允许私人和外国投资委 内瑞拉石油行业，美国此前也解除了一些相关制裁。中国企业是否考虑重新评估或扩大在委内瑞拉能源 领域的投资？ 图源：外交部网站 郭嘉昆资料图。 "我们注意到有关报道，中方一贯反对非法单边制裁，关于中国能源政策及相关具体问题，建议向主管 部门进行询问。"郭嘉昆说。 来源：北京日报客户端 责任编辑：刘万里 SF014 ...

| | | | 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【行情回顾】 | 2 | | | 【市场展望】 | 2 | | | 【策略推荐】 | 2 | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 | 3 | | | 一、行情回顾 | 3 | | | 二、供应概况 | 4 | | | 三、需求概况 | 7 | | | 四、库存与估值 | 9 | | 第三部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 12 | | | 免责声明 | 13 | | 能化板块研发报告 原油 2 月报 2026 年 1 月 30 日 "天气与地缘"双双驱动油价上行 【行情回顾】 2026 年 1 月，国际原油期货上演了"天气与地缘"双驱动的震荡上行行 情。受到地缘政治紧张及欧美寒潮天气影响，油价逆势走强，整体呈现偏强震 荡格局。截至 1 月下旬，两大基准油价较 2025 年末显著上涨 10 美元/桶。 其中，美国 WTI 原油期货价格于 1 月 29 日收于 65.51 美元/桶，当月累计上 涨约 14.1%；英国布伦特原油期货收于 69.71 美元/桶，涨幅更是达到 14.5%。 地缘政治风险是本月核心支撑，市场对主要产油 ...

Group 1 - The State Intellectual Property Office of China has granted a patent to Luoyang Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. for a method and system for controlling the operation of a reactor used in resin production, with the announcement number CN120993759B and an application date of October 2025 [1] - Luoyang Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. was established in 2010, located in Luoyang City, and primarily engages in the petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing industries, with a registered capital of 39.190494 million RMB [1] - The company has made investments in 4 enterprises, participated in 63 bidding projects, holds 3 trademark registrations, and has 52 patents, along with 173 administrative licenses [1] Group 2 - Jiyuan Haiwan Industrial Co., Ltd. was established in 2012, located in a county-level administrative region, and primarily focuses on the manufacturing of chemical raw materials and products, with a registered capital of 100 million RMB [1] - The company has participated in 6 bidding projects, holds 2 trademark registrations, has 34 patents, and possesses 47 administrative licenses [1]

(原油) 昨夜油价纷纷冲高，SC一度涨近7%，随后盘中回吐大幅涨幅。美国总统特朗普称正考虑对伊朗发动 新的重大打击，未作出最终决定。伊外交部长阿拉格齐同日表示，伊朗随时准备对侵犯行为作出回 应。市场担忧伊朗对其邻国发起反击或甚至关闭霍尔木兹海峡。欧盟理事会29日发布公报说，决定 对伊朗内政部长伊斯坎德尔。莫梅尼等15名官员和6个实体实施制裁，并已决定将伊朗伊斯兰革命卫 队列为恐怖组织。泽连斯基表示就能源基础设施达成的停火将从29日夜间开始生效。地缘局势走向 扑朔迷离叠加基本面累库压制仍在,警惕油价大幅波动风险。 【责金属】 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 隔夜贵金属剧烈波动,盘中振幅接近10%。市场聚焦地缘局势变化,俄乌方面普京同意部分停火一 周，美伊依然处于焦灼状态，随时可能发动重大打击。此外特朗普即将公布美联储主席人选并呼吁 太幅降息，美国政府面临再度关门风险。短期市场信息繁杂，市场波动风险高，控制仓位谨慎参 与。 (铜) 周四全日铜价剧烈波动，伦铜盘中最大涨幅超过10%，兑现部分海外机构1.4万美元及以上目标位。 铜价由资金与情绪引导,关注今日国内现货与贴水幅度,现货价差已转为 ...

1月29日，有社交媒体发布信息，称"古巴国家石油公司与旅游部联合通知，因燃油严重 短缺，将暂停向公众供应燃料，并优先保障旅游业、医疗卫生等关键部门"。 古巴官方曾谴责此类不实信息是美国对古巴发动媒体战与网络战、企图破坏古巴稳定的手 段之一。 来源：央视新闻客户端 End 欢迎分享给你的朋友！ 出品 | 中国能源报（c n e n e rg y） 责编丨李慧颖 古巴官方辟谣燃油断供传言：加油站未暂停销售。 当地时间1月29日获悉，针对社交媒体上出现的"古巴燃油供应中断"传言，古巴国家石油 公司当天发表声明予以驳斥， 明确表示国内加油站燃料供应正常，并未暂停销售 ，同时 建议民众通过其官方网站获取最新资讯。该声明也得到古巴能源和矿产部的转发支持。 ...