2025年 椰子糖行业词条报告 头豹分类/制造业/农副食品加工业/制糖业 Copyright © 2025 头豹 解码椰子糖产业链，从海南椰林到全球糖果的甜蜜经济 头豹词条报告 系列 于利蓉 · 头豹分析师 2025-11-13 未经平台授权，禁止转载 行业分类： 制造业/制糖业 摘要 椰子糖是指以椰子原汁、白砂糖、淀粉糖浆等为主要原料，按照一定工艺加工而成的糖块。其天然健康属性驱动市场扩容，高端化、多元化产品趋势明显，智能制造与供应 链透明化推动产业升级。全球椰子糖市场高度集中，CR4企业市场占比大于75%，属于极高寡占型市场，其中，春光食品2015-2024年连续十年全球椰子糖销量第一，占据 椰子糖行业绝对龙头地位。未来，数字营销和电商平台的发展将推动椰子糖市场规模持续增长。 行业定义 椰子糖是指以椰子原汁、白砂糖、淀粉糖浆等为主要原料，按照一定工艺加工而成的糖块，包括硬质糖果、酥质糖果、凝胶糖果（软糖）、 乳脂糖果（含焦香糖果（太妃糖）、奶糖糖果（奶糖））、充气糖果等产品。 行业分类 椰子糖按照产品形态分类，可以分为硬质椰子糖、酥质椰子糖、凝胶椰子糖、乳脂椰子糖、奶糖椰子糖和充气椰子糖。 椰子糖行业基于 ...

Group 1: Agricultural Modernization and Rural Revitalization - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasizes accelerating agricultural modernization and promoting comprehensive rural revitalization [1] - Guangxi and Gansu are actively implementing the spirit of the plenary session to enhance agricultural production capacity and quality [1] Group 2: Guangxi Sugar Industry - Guangxi is currently in the sugarcane harvest season, with a stable planting area of over 11 million acres and a sugar production of around 6 million tons, making it China's largest sugarcane planting base [2] - The sugar industry in Guangxi is evolving from simple sugar production to a diversified model that includes comprehensive utilization and deep processing, with over 30 by-products developed from sugarcane waste [2] - Future plans for Guangxi's sugar industry include transitioning towards high-end, green, and intelligent development [2] Group 3: Gansu Agricultural Development - In Gansu, the introduction of new herbal harvesting machines has significantly improved efficiency, reducing the time to harvest one acre of medicinal herbs to about one hour [3] - Gansu has invested 367 million yuan in agricultural machinery innovation during the 14th Five-Year Plan, resulting in over a hundred new agricultural machinery products [3] - The mechanization rate in Gansu's hilly areas has reached 67%, with plans to develop modern cold and drought-resistant specialty agriculture and cultivate competitive agricultural brands [4]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report [2][3] - Report Date: November 26, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [5] Group 2: Data Analysis Futures Market - SR09: Closing price at 5,324, down 12 (-0.22%), volume 2,135 (down 1,537), open interest 19,534 (up 659) [6] - SR01: Closing price at 5,379, down 8 (-0.15%), volume 153,464 (up 18,087), open interest 394,080 (down 12,249) [6] - SR05: Closing price at 5,309, down 16 (-0.30%), volume 41,612 (up 12,801), open interest 190,753 (up 11,365) [6] Spot Market - Sugar prices in different regions: Liuzhou at 5,615, Kunming at 5,480 (down 20), Wuhan at 5,960, Nanning at 0, Bayuquan at 6,015, Rizhao at 5,800, Xi'an at 6,100 [6] - Basis: Liuzhou at 236, Kunming at 101, Wuhan at 581, Bayuquan at 636, Rizhao at 421, Xi'an at 721 [6] Spread Analysis - SR05 - SR01: Spread at -70, down 8; SR09 - SR05: Spread at 15, up 4; SR09 - SR01: Spread at -55, down 4 [6] Import Profit Analysis - Brazil import: ICE主力 at 14.77, premium at (0.19), freight at 37.75, in - quota price at 4,059, out - of - quota price at 5,158, spread with Liuzhou at 457, with Rizhao at 642, with futures at 221 [6] - Thailand import: ICE主力 at 14.77, premium at 0.89, freight at 18.00, in - quota price at 4,108, out - of - quota price at 5,221, spread with Liuzhou at 394, with Rizhao at 579, with futures at 158 [6] Group 3: Market Research Important Information - Brazil: Expected 11 - month first - half sugarcane crushing at 18.85 million tons (down 14.9% yoy), sugar production at 1.075 million tons (up 18.9% yoy), and sugar - making ratio at 41.94% [8] - Yunnan: 7 sugar mills have started crushing in 2025/26 season (3 more than last year), planned capacity at 24,100 tons/day (up 13,100 tons/day), 4 more mills to start soon [9] - New season starts: Menglian Changyu Sugar Industry's new season begins on November 23 [10] Logical Analysis - International: Brazil's sugar production may be lower than expected, supply pressure eases, international sugar prices show signs of bottoming, short - term slightly bullish [11] - Domestic: New season production increases, but import restrictions and high production costs support prices, current price may not fall much further [11] Trading Strategies - Single - side: Consider short - term long positions at low prices [12] - Arbitrage: Long January, short May [13] - Options: Sell put options at low levels [13] Group 4: Related Charts - Charts include Guangxi and Yunnan inventory, sales - to - production ratio, Liuzhou sugar price, price spreads, and basis for different contract months [14][18][21][27][28][31]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of developing new quality productivity as a key strategy for achieving high-quality economic development in Guangxi's Chongzuo City, particularly in Fusui County, in line with the spirit of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session [1][12]. Group 1: Understanding New Quality Productivity - New quality productivity is essential for transforming the county's economic model, moving from traditional extensive growth to high-quality, innovative development [2][3]. - It serves as a tactical adjustment for the county's industrial structure, focusing on key technological innovations and optimizing resource allocation [2][3]. - The development of new quality productivity is crucial for enhancing the county's innovation capabilities and core competitiveness [3]. Group 2: Seizing Historical Opportunities - To cultivate new quality productivity, it is vital to understand the existing industrial landscape and identify key areas for technological upgrades [4]. - Recognizing and leveraging local development advantages is necessary to avoid homogeneous competition and build a sustainable industrial foundation [4]. - The county should capitalize on emerging industries such as low-altitude economy and artificial intelligence to create new growth drivers [4]. Group 3: Addressing Transformation Challenges - There are challenges in technology transfer capabilities and a lack of alignment between local industry needs and academic research [5]. - Structural issues persist, with a high proportion of traditional resource-based industries and a small scale of strategic emerging industries [5]. - Attracting and retaining top talent remains a significant challenge for the county [5]. Group 4: Promoting Innovation and Open Cooperation - The county should focus on precise innovation strategies tailored to local industries, addressing specific challenges through targeted innovation nodes [7]. - Open cooperation should aim to establish the county as a leader in niche markets, leveraging its geographical advantages for cross-border industrial development [8]. Group 5: Implementing Industrial Renewal Plans - The county's industrial upgrade requires a dual approach, enhancing traditional industries while fostering new strategic sectors [9]. - Emphasis should be placed on digital transformation and the development of specialized industrial parks to support long-term growth [9]. Group 6: Building a New Factor Attraction System - The county must create a factor configuration system that aligns with new development concepts, focusing on talent attraction and integration with local industries [10]. - Digital economy integration with traditional sectors is essential for improving efficiency and driving growth [10]. Group 7: Enhancing Public Services and Governance - Improving public service quality is crucial for boosting local development momentum, with a focus on optimizing the business environment [11]. - The county should adopt smart governance practices to streamline administrative processes and enhance service delivery [11].

2025/2026榨季全球食糖预期供应过剩 今年下半年以来，白糖价格持续走弱，当前市场已进入新旧糖转换阶段。受大量进口加工糖冲击，新糖 价格直接下探至国内制糖成本线。 国际糖业组织（ISO）最新预测显示，受产量增长推动，预计2025/2026榨季全球食糖供应将过剩163万 吨。具体来看，该榨季全球糖产量预计同比增长3.15%，达到1.8177亿吨；而消费量预计仅增长0.6%， 至1.8014亿吨。此外，2024/2025榨季全球食糖预计将出现292万吨的供需缺口。 巴西方面，10月下半月，巴西中南部地区甘蔗入榨量为3110.8万吨，较去年同期增长14.34%；糖产量为 206.8万吨，同比增长16.40%。尽管该地区甘蔗ATR（总可回收糖分）显著低于往年同期水平，但制糖 比大幅提升有效弥补了这一不足。截至目前，本榨季累计制糖比为51.97%，较去年同期的48.59%提高 3.38个百分点，进一步支撑了全球食糖整体增产格局。 印度方面，维持食糖增产预期。据印度糖厂协会（ISMA）数据，2025/2026榨季食糖总产量预计为3435 万吨。若扣除用于乙醇生产的340万吨食糖，该榨季食糖净产量预计为3095万吨。 ...

行业 白糖日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 25 日 研究员：王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635732 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：洪辰亮 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：期货行情 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 收盘价（元/吨 美分/磅） | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓 ...

数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 根据中国海关数据显示：2025年10月中国食糖进口数量为75万吨，同比增长39%，进口金额为3.16亿美 元，同比增长8.4%。 近一年中国食糖进口情况统计图 上市企业：中粮糖业（600737），广农糖业（000911） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国食糖行业市场全景评估及投资前景规划报告》 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 白糖日报 2025 年 11 月 24 日 白糖日报 第一部分 数据分析 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： liuqiannan_qh@china stock.com.cn | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减量 | 持仓量 | 增减量 | | SR09 | | 5,336 | 15 | 0.28% | 2,917 | 134 | 18,406 | 423 | | SR01 | | 5,370 | 17 | 0.32% | 175,985 | -3844 | 417,739 | 1039 | | SR05 | | 5,319 | 17 | 0.32% | 46,621 | 4626 | 179,121 | 8502 | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | | 白糖 | | 柳州 | 昆明 | 武汉 | 南宁 | 鲅鱼圈 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, and A - shares lack a clear upward mainline. The market trading volume remains low, and short - term market differences are expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment. New driving mainlines are awaited for further index upward movement [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - There are various trends and influencing factors for different commodities, such as metals, energy, and agricultural products, with most prices expected to maintain a volatile trend, and some having specific supply - demand and macro - factor - related outlooks [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The current macro - level is in a vacuum, A - shares lack an upward mainline, trading volume is low, and short - term market differences will be digested in index shock adjustment. New driving mainlines are needed for further upward movement [1]. Treasury Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are good for bond futures, but short - term central - bank interest - rate risk warnings suppress the upward space [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The expectation of a December Fed rate cut has cooled, causing copper price to回调. However, the Fed is still in a rate - cut cycle, and there are still disturbances at the mine end, so the callback range is expected to be limited [1]. - **Aluminum**: Recently, industrial - side driving forces are limited, and macro - sentiment is volatile, so the aluminum price is running in a high - level shock [1]. - **Alumina**: With domestic alumina production capacity continuously releasing, production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, and the price is oscillating around the cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: There are signs of short - term domestic improvement in the fundamentals, but the surplus pattern remains unchanged. With the Fed's internal differences on the December rate cut, the zinc price is expected to maintain a shock trend [1]. - **Nickel**: The Fed has large internal differences on the December rate cut, and the macro - sentiment is volatile. Indonesia has restricted nickel - related smelting project approvals again. Recently, the planned production cut of Indonesian intermediate products may affect about 6000 metal tons in July. If the macro - sentiment improves, the nickel price has a repair expectation. In the long - term, the primary nickel market will continue to be in a surplus pattern [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The Fed's internal differences on the December rate cut are large, and the macro - sentiment is volatile. The price of raw - material nickel - iron has weakened again, and the social inventory of stainless steel has increased. The November production cut of steel mills is limited. The stainless - steel futures are searching for the bottom in shock [1]. - **Tin**: The Fed's internal differences are increasing, and the macro - sentiment is expected to be volatile. The long - term view on tin is bullish due to the significant decline in Indonesian tin export scale, unrepaired tin - ore supply, and expected terminal - downstream demand [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Fed officials have soothed the market, and the probability of a December rate cut has rebounded. Precious - metal prices may fluctuate [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: There is an expectation of medium - long - term capacity reduction. In the fourth quarter, terminal installation has a marginal increase. Northwest production capacity is continuously resuming, and the southwest's start - up is weaker than in previous years, with the impact of the dry season weakening [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The production schedule in November has decreased [1]. - **Organic Silicon**: There has been a joint production cut [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, and there is supply - side resumption and production increase. But there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season [1]. Building Materials and Energy - **Rebar**: The industry off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. In the short - term macro - vacuum period, the basis is acceptable, and it is advisable to participate in spot - futures positive arbitrage or use option strategies to optimize costs or sales profits [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The near - month is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month still has upward opportunities [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The direct demand is okay, and there is cost support, but the supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the sector is under pressure. The price rebound space is limited [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: From a valuation perspective, this round of decline is close to the end. The coke price at 1630 reflects the expectation of 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts, and coking - coal contracts are also close to key support levels. Further decline requires continuous increase in coking - coal supply. Downstream is expected to start a new round of replenishment around mid - December [1]. - **Glass**: It follows the glass trend, but the supply - demand situation is average, and there is significant upward resistance [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The valuation indicates that this round of decline is close to the end, and the driving force may need more time. Downstream is expected to start replenishment around mid - December [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: High - frequency data shows increased production and reduced exports in the origin, and the near - month pressure is still high. Domestic ship - buying is active, and the basis is expected to be weak. The risk lies in a significant production cut in the origin [1]. - **Soybean and Soybean Oil**: The rumor of "US delaying the implementation of preferential cuts for imported bio - fuel raw materials" has been refuted, which has a positive expected difference for US soybeans and US soybean oil. Under high domestic crushing, the basis may be stable or slightly weak [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The industry is optimistic about the replenishment of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil, and the trend remains unchanged, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - **Cotton**: There is a strong expectation of a domestic new - crop harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream start - up remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply pressure has increased year - on - year. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to be under pressure and follow the raw - sugar price [1]. - **Corn**: Short - term factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell, tight logistics in the Northeast, and low downstream inventory have led to a temporary supply shortage. The selling pressure is postponed, and the market's acceptance of high - price corn is limited before the supply pressure is fully released [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term attention should be paid to China's purchase of US soybeans. From December to January, the market is expected to gradually shift to trading the pressure of a bumper South American new crop. MO5 is recommended to be shorted on rallies [1]. Pulp and Wood - **Paper Pulp**: The pulp - futures price has risen above the registration - warehouse - receipt cost of most coniferous - pulp delivery products, and the upward space is limited. After new warehouse - receipts are registered, 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage can be considered [1]. - **Log**: The fundamental situation of logs has weakened, but it has been priced in the market. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the profit - loss ratio of short - selling is low, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. Livestock - **Pig**: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. With demand support and the un - cleared slaughter weight, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + plans to continue a small - scale production increase in December, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude - oil trend in the short - term, the demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The asphalt profit is high [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The cost - end support of butadiene is insufficient, the supply of synthetic rubber is loose, and high - start - up and high - inventory have not been the main factors suppressing the price. The short - term price shows signs of stopping the decline [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas and some domestic device malfunctions have led to a decline in the load of reforming devices. Domestic large - scale PTA devices are undergoing rotational inspections, and domestic PTA production has decreased [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The crude - oil price decline has led to a fall in the ethylene - glycol price. The increase in coal price has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol. The strong expectation of domestic device commissioning suppresses the increase in ethylene - glycol price [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The PTA price has rebounded, and the short - fiber basis has strengthened. The short - fiber price continues to closely follow the cost [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is still weak, and the start - up rates of STDP devices and reforming devices have decreased. The US pure - benzene price has increased by 30 US dollars, and some US devices have reduced their loads [1]. - **Urea**: There is support from anti - involution and the cost end, but the export sentiment has eased, and domestic demand is insufficient [1]. - **PF**: The number of overhauls has decreased, the start - up load is high, the supply pressure is large, and the downstream improvement is limited [1]. - **PP**: The propylene monomer price is high, providing strong cost support. The supply pressure is increasing due to fewer future overhauls and new - capacity release [1]. - **PVC**: The delivery of Guangxi alumina has started, some alumina plants have postponed production, and the delivery rhythm has slowed down. There is a risk of a short squeeze due to low absolute prices and limited near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - **LPG**: The international oil - gas fundamental situation is continuously loose, and the CP/FEI price has weakened. The domestic spot fundamental situation is stable, with price - valuation repair, restarting of combustion demand, and chemical rigid - demand support [1]. Shipping - **Asia - Europe Line**: The macro - positive sentiment has been gradually digested, the peak - season price - increase expectation has been priced in advance, and the shipping - capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1].

Report Title - Sugar Weekly Report: Stabilizing Foreign Prices, Declining Zhengzhou Sugar Prices [1] Report Author - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [1] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F3013727 [1] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0014425 [1] Report Structure - Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies [2][5][46] - Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis [2][5][46] - Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking [2][5][46] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Globally, the increase in sugar production in major producing areas is being realized. Datagro has significantly lowered the global sugar surplus forecast, mainly reducing the sugar production forecasts for Brazil and India. International sugar prices show signs of bottoming out and are expected to fluctuate in the short term [3]. - In the domestic market, sugar mills are gradually starting operations, increasing supply and sales pressure. However, considering factors such as tightened imports of syrup and premixes and relatively high previous pricing costs, domestic sugar production costs are high, which provides some support for the futures price. It is expected that the Zhengzhou sugar price will fluctuate within a range in the short term [3]. Key Points by Chapter Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies** - Given the significant decline in Brazil's sugar - making ratio and the bottoming - out signs of international sugar prices, which are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, and considering the high domestic sugar production cost and the current futures price near 5300, it is advisable to consider short - term long positions at low prices [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Go long on the January contract and short the May contract [4]. - Option strategy: Sell put options at low levels [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes** - The ISO predicts a 1.63 - million - ton supply surplus in the 2025/26 sugar season, with production increasing by 3.15% to 181.77 million tons and consumption growing by 0.6% to 180.14 million tons. Datagro has revised down the supply surplus forecast to 1 million tons, mainly due to reduced production in Brazil and India [8]. - Brazil's sugar production is expected to remain at a high level. Although there are some changes in production factors, the overall output is still considerable. For example, the 2025/26 production is expected to be 45.02 million tons [9]. - In Thailand, the new sugar season is expected to see a slight increase in production, with an expected increase in exports [24]. - In India, the 2025/26 sugar season has started. The expected net sugar production is 30.95 million tons, and the government has approved the export of 1.5 million tons of sugar [33]. - **Domestic Market Conditions** - Domestic sugar mills are gradually starting operations. In Yunnan, 4 sugar mills have started operations as of now, and more are expected to start soon. In Guangxi, the number of operating sugar mills is also increasing [37]. - Import profits are relatively high, and in October, the import volume increased significantly. From January to October 2025, the total import volume of sugar was 3.9054 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.8% [45]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Brazil** - By October 31, 2025, in the 2025/2026 season, the cumulative sugar production in central - southern Brazil reached 38.085 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.63% [14]. - In the first two weeks of November, Brazil exported 1.5582 million tons of sugar, with an average daily export volume of 155,800 tons, a 13% decrease compared to November last year [20]. - **Thailand** - In the 24/25 season, sugar production was 10.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million tons. From January to September 2025, exports were 4.8685 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.32 million tons [24]. - **India** - As of November 19, 2025, 147 sugar mills in Maharashtra had started operations, and they had crushed 11.727 million tons of sugarcane, producing 868,100 tons of sugar [33]. - **China** - In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 213,200 tons. From January to October, the total import volume of syrup and premixes was 1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 963,600 tons [45].