1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The sharp decline in the raw sugar price has dragged down the domestic white sugar price, causing it to open lower and decline. However, the expected increase in demand limits the decline. In the later stage, both supply and demand will be strong, leading to more volatile prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the arrival of goods at ports and summer consumption [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5,766 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 302,138 lots, a decrease of 7,673 lots. The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 23,575, a decrease of 174. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -21,701 lots, an increase of 9,455 lots. The estimated effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,342 yuan/ton, an increase of 46 yuan. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,511 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan. The estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 4,392 yuan/ton, an increase of 46 yuan. The estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,576 yuan/ton. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,895 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price in Nanning is 6,070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan. The spot price in Liuzhou is 6,150 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares. The national sugar production cumulative value is 304.83 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 111.621 million tons. The national cumulative sugar sales volume is 81.138 million tons, a decrease of 81,430 tons. The national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points. The monthly sugar import volume is 350,000 tons, an increase of 220,000 tons. The total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 2.2566 million tons, an increase of 704,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,603 yuan/ton, a decrease of 72 yuan. The price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,553 yuan/ton, a decrease of 72 yuan. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 434 yuan/ton, a decrease of 86 yuan. The price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 369 yuan/ton, a decrease of 86 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 3%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 6.41%, a decrease of 1.98 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 6.42%, a decrease of 1.97 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 7.44%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points. The 60 - day historical volatility of sugar is 8.71%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of June 30, a sugar factory in Tiandong has cleared its inventory of "Dongxing" brand sugar, becoming the 6th sugar factory in South China, Guangxi to clear its inventory in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, an increase of 4 compared to the same period last year. Currently, only 3 sugar factories have not cleared their inventory. Internationally, with the arrival of the monsoon season, the prospects of major sugar - producing countries in Asia have improved, and the expectation of loose supply has suppressed the decline of raw sugar prices [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Guangxi is actively exploring a new model of sugar industry cooperation with Vietnam, focusing on sugarcane cultivation and processing, with significant increases in sugarcane imports expected for the 2024/2025 season [1] - Guangxi has implemented measures to enhance sugarcane production quality and efficiency, including a three-year action plan for the transformation and upgrading of sugar enterprises, leading to notable achievements in high-quality sugar industry development [1][2] - Guangxi is a major player in China's sugar industry, accounting for approximately 60% of the country's sugarcane planting area and sugar production, with ongoing efforts to restore sugarcane cultivation areas and increase planting [1] Group 2 - The Guangxi government has allocated nearly 2 billion yuan to support the revitalization of sugarcane seed industry and promote the adoption of advanced cultivation techniques [2] - A new mechanized harvesting model for sugarcane has been introduced, along with the establishment of 235 mechanized harvesting service points, aimed at modernizing sugarcane production [2] - Guangxi is extending its sugar industry value chain by developing new products such as sugarcane vinegar and sugarcane beer, and has established the largest environmentally friendly sugarcane residue production base in the country [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that Guangxi's sugar production for the 2024/2025 season is expected to exceed 6.465 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 283,600 tons [1] - The area planted with sugarcane in Guangxi is projected to be 11.35 million acres, which represents an increase of 110,000 acres compared to the previous year [1]

行业 白糖日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 2 日 研究员：王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635732 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：洪辰亮 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 二、行业要闻 三、数据概览 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：期货行情 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - Internationally, as Brazil is about to reach its supply peak, global inventories are expected to enter a stockpiling phase. The selling pressure after the start of Brazil's new sugar - crushing season has dragged down the raw sugar price center, and the expected increase in Brazil's production and the new sugar production in the Northern Hemisphere are suppressing raw sugar prices. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress and actual increase [4]. - Domestically, the fast production and sales speed is expected to support sugar prices. However, the large - scale entry of imported sugar into the domestic market may drag down sugar prices. Coupled with the recent weak trend of raw sugar, sugar prices will maintain a weak trend in the short term [4]. - Raw sugar has fallen recently due to the expected increase in global supply. The change in Brazil's sugar production remains an important indicator for the market. In China, the faster - than - expected production and sales rhythm supports spot prices. But considering the short - term weak operation of raw sugar, the profit from out - of - quota imports has risen again, and the supply pressure of refined sugar is about to materialize. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to passively follow the raw sugar price fluctuations in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Disk**: For SR2511, the closing price is 5,775, down 32 with a decline of 0.56%, the trading volume is 190,361 with an increase of 0.80%, and the open interest is 309,811 with a decrease of 0.82%. For SR2507, the closing price is 5,790, down 20 with a decline of 0.34%, the trading volume is 218 with a decrease of 80.64%, and the open interest is 10,034 with a decrease of 1.11%. For SR2509, the closing price is 5,653, down 35 with a decline of 0.62%, the trading volume is 17,336 with a decrease of 5.00%, and the open interest is 53,130 with an increase of 1.89% [3]. - **Spot Price**: In different regions, the prices are as follows: 6150 in Liuzhou, 5895 - 6090 in Kunming, 6175 in Zhanjiang, 6160 in Nanning, 6420 in Bayuquan, 6420 in Rizhao, and 6420 in Xi'an [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The SR07 - SR11 spread is 137 with a change of 15, the SR09 - SR11 spread is 122 with a change of 15, and the SR07 - SR09 spread is 241 with a change of 15 [3]. - **Import Profit**: For Brazilian imports, the ICE main contract price is 16.19, the premium is - 0.06, the freight is 36.25, the in - quota price is 4342, the out - of - quota price is 5548, the spread with Liuzhou is 602, the spread with Rizhao is 612.00, and the spread with the futures disk is 242. For Thai imports, the ICE main contract price is 16.19, the premium is 0.83, the freight is 18, the in - quota price is 4378, the out - of - quota price is 5595, the spread with Liuzhou is 555, the spread with Rizhao is 565.00, and the spread with the futures disk is 195 [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Trading Strategy** - **Unilateral**: It is expected to maintain a sideways trend in the short term [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Take profit on the 9 - 1 spread [7]. - **Options**: Use out - of - the - money ratio spread options [10]. 3.3 Relevant Attached Figures - The attached figures include Guangxi's monthly inventory, Yunnan's monthly inventory, new industrial inventory, the cumulative production and sales rate of domestic sugar, Liuzhou's white sugar spot price, the spot price spread between Liuzhou and Kunming, the September basis of white sugar, and the 5 - 9 spread of Zhengzhou sugar [11][13][16][19]

Core Insights - T Company engages in sugar trading with a monthly trading volume of approximately 5,000 tons and employs a rigorous strategy for options hedging [1] - The company utilizes a dual selling strategy for sugar options, capitalizing on low volatility in the VIX index, which ranges from a high of 25.11 to a low of 7.98, with an average volatility of 17.13 [2][3] - The implementation of the dual selling strategy has increased trading opportunities from 6 to 12 times a year due to the introduction of series options [4][13] Trading Strategy - The dual selling strategy aims to profit from declining volatility and time decay, requiring the selling of a sufficiently large range to mitigate directional risk [4] - T Company has set a price fluctuation range of 1,000 CNY/ton to manage extreme market conditions [5] - The company selected strike prices of 5,500 CNY and 6,500 CNY based on a neutral Delta value to balance the options portfolio [8] Market Analysis - The VIX index indicates a stable market environment for sugar futures, which is characterized by narrow price fluctuations, making it an ideal target for options sellers [13] - The company anticipates that the sugar price will remain within the range of 5,500 to 6,500 CNY/ton over the next 14 trading days, allowing for strategic positioning [10] Financial Performance - By executing the dual selling strategy, T Company expects to achieve an annualized return of 14.88%, significantly exceeding its funding cost of 2.5% [11] - The strategy's effectiveness is enhanced by the faster time decay of series options compared to conventional options, allowing for quicker realization of profits [14]

Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Industry Weekly Report - Date: June 29, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) [2] Market Information Domestic Market - Spot Quotes: Nanning intermediary platform offers 6,110 yuan/ton, Kunming intermediary offers 5,830 - 5,950 yuan/ton [3] - In May 2025, China imported 350,000 tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 330,000 tons; imported 64,200 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year-on-year decrease of 150,700 tons [3] International Market - Last week, Zhengzhou sugar rebounded after hitting a new low. The main factor was the oil price increase caused by the Israel-Iran conflict, which drove up the agricultural product sector. However, the rebound of the external market was not strong due to the decoupling of Brazilian gasoline prices from crude oil prices. With relatively low imports in China, the price of domestic sugar is supported [4] Price and Spread Data Futures - Futures closing prices and spreads on June 30, 2025: SR01 at 5,600 yuan/ton with 0% change, SR03 at 5,573 yuan/ton with 0% change, etc. [5] Spot - Spot prices and spreads on June 27, 2025: Nanning at 6,030 yuan/ton with a 50-yuan increase, etc. [6] Basis - Basis and its changes on June 27, 2025: Nanning - SR01 basis at 490 yuan with a 33-yuan increase, etc. [7][10] Import Prices - Import prices and their changes from June 20, 2025: Brazilian import quota price at 4,450 yuan/ton with a 26-yuan decrease, etc. [11] Industry News - In the first three weeks of June, Brazil exported 2.103 million tons of sugar, with an average daily export of 152,000 tons, a 6% decrease compared to June last year [9] - The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories in India estimates that India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season will be 35 million tons [9] - According to Unica data, in late May, the central-southern region of Brazil crushed 47.85 million tons of sugarcane, a year-on-year increase of 5.47%, produced 2.95 million tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 8.86%, and the sugar production ratio was 51.85%, compared to 48.2% in the same period last year [9] - Brazil's Ministry of Mines and Energy increased the mandatory ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% and the biodiesel ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% [9]

Core Viewpoint - Brazil's sugar production is lagging, but the sugar-to-ethanol ratio is rising, leading to strong expectations of reduced production for the new season, while markets anticipate increased production from India and Thailand, which is suppressing sugar prices [1] Group 1: Production and Market Dynamics - Brazil's sugar production progress is slow, with a significant decline in the crushing volume, down 20.24% year-on-year to 76.714 million tons as of mid-May 2025/26 [1] - The sugar production rate in Guangxi has improved, with cumulative sugar sales reaching 4.6453 million tons by the end of May, an increase of 537,100 tons year-on-year, and a production-to-sales ratio of 71.85%, up 5.39 percentage points [1] - The Indian Sugar Mills Association forecasts an ending stock of 4.8 to 5 million tons for the 2024/25 season, sufficient to meet domestic consumption needs in late 2025, despite a decline in production this season [1] Group 2: Import and Export Trends - China has suspended imports of Thai sugar syrup and premixed powder, although Thailand has expressed willingness to rectify the situation [1] - Sugar imports in May reached 350,000 tons, an increase of 333,100 tons year-on-year, indicating a favorable profit window for imports outside of quotas [1] - The import of sugar syrup and premixed powder in May was 64,200 tons, a significant decrease of 150,700 tons year-on-year, marking the second-lowest level for the same period in five years [1] Group 3: Future Production Expectations - Analysts predict a 5% increase in Brazil's sugar production for the 2025/26 season, reaching 46 million tons [1] - Thailand's sugar production for the 2024/25 season is expected to rise to 10.39 million tons [1] - India's early monsoon rains are anticipated to lead to a strong recovery in sugar production for the 2025/26 season, potentially reaching around 35 million tons [1]

Group 1 - The core argument of the article revolves around the historical and contemporary perspectives on high tariffs and trade protectionism, particularly in developing countries [1][2][4] - The article highlights the contradiction that while many economists have proven the ineffectiveness of protected industries, the call for high tariffs persists, especially from advanced nations [3][4] - The article discusses the evolution of trade policies in the U.S. as outlined by Douglas Irwin, focusing on three main goals: Revenue, Restriction, and Reciprocity, with the emphasis shifting over time [5][30] Group 2 - The "Infant Industry Argument" proposed by Alexander Hamilton suggests that nascent industries require temporary protection from foreign competition to develop [6][7] - Friedrich List expanded on Hamilton's ideas, advocating for differentiated and progressive tariffs to protect industries with potential for growth while allowing for eventual transition to free trade [10][11] - Raul Prebisch's "Center-Periphery" theory posits that developing countries must break the unequal trade relationship with industrialized nations through strategies like import substitution and export-oriented growth [13][14][16] Group 3 - Empirical studies by economists like Frédéric Bastiat and Amasa Walker demonstrate that trade protection often leads to inefficiencies and does not guarantee the intended benefits for domestic industries [19][22] - Philippe Aghion's research indicates that protectionist policies can hinder economic dynamism and lead to stagnation, as seen in Japan's economy [28][29] - The article suggests that non-tariff measures may be more effective than tariffs in achieving trade protection goals, as supported by various studies [29][30] Group 4 - The article outlines the historical phases of U.S. trade policy, indicating a potential return to a focus on revenue generation through tariffs as the national debt escalates [33][39] - The shift in U.S. industrial structure towards services and the geographical concentration of manufacturing has implications for future trade policy [37][38] - The increasing national debt and its impact on fiscal policy may drive the U.S. government to prioritize high tariffs as a means of revenue generation [38][39]

Market Overview - The main white sugar futures contract experienced a slight increase, closing at 5790 CNY/ton, up by 63 CNY or 1.1%, with a reduction of 15891 contracts [1] Fundamental Summary - According to Williams, a Brazilian shipping agency, the amount of sugar waiting for shipment at ports was 2.7042 million tons for the week ending June 25, down from 2.8539 million tons the previous week [2] - The Brazilian government announced an increase in the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30%, which may impact the sugar production ratio [3] - Sao Martinho, the world's largest sugar processing company, expects its sugarcane crushing volume for the 2025/26 season to be 22.6 million tons [4] Institutional Perspectives - Hualian Futures noted that the Brazilian National Energy Policy Council will decide later in June whether to raise the ethanol blending ratio, which could boost international sugar prices. China's sugar imports hit a new low in the first five months of 2025, but there was a significant increase in May. With domestic production inventories declining, there is a need for imported sugar to fill the gap, especially as international raw sugar prices have dropped, increasing import profitability. The demand season is gradually improving, and a buy recommendation is suggested with a support level of 5600 CNY/ton for Zheng sugar [5] - Southwest Futures indicated that while Brazilian crushing is expected to accelerate, prices have largely reflected the anticipated increase in production. The escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran has led to a significant rise in crude oil prices, which may increase the ethanol production ratio at Brazilian sugar mills, reducing sugar supply. With low domestic inventories and an expected increase in imports, the supply-demand imbalance is not acute, and the current price basis is high with low valuation. A gradual buying strategy is recommended as the consumption peak season approaches [5]