基金赚钱了，基民却跑了？ 近一个月，公募行业延续业绩回暖态势。Wind数据显示，截至7月25日，万得普通股票型基金指数、万 得偏股混合型基金指数均上涨超过8%，年内回报率同步修复在14%以上。同期，超过九成主动权益类 产品年内回报为正。 然而，亮眼业绩背后，投资者兑现收益、落袋为安的意愿也在增强。据第一财经统计，主动权益基金二 季度被净赎回超过1070亿份，较一季度环比增加56%。与过往"长期亏损致清盘"的经验不同，其中部分 绩优基金也遭遇净赎回，甚至因规模持续低于清盘线而拉响警报。 业内人士分析称，"落袋为安"的投资者情绪是核心推手。业绩回暖助投资者回本，反而加剧了阶段性赎 回，尤其在医药等深跌反弹板块，基民"见好就收"心态强烈，"见好就收""落袋为安"的心态强烈。 站在当前时点，长城基金高级宏观策略研究员汪立对第一财经表示："目前，资金市带动下的板块快速 轮动仍未结束。从更长的时间来看，预计A股从资金市逐步转向以基本面为核心的基本面行情或将是下 半年的更长主线。" 汪立认为，在整体政策与事件影响偏积极的背景下，预计短期大盘或将沿着当下趋势震荡走强，但因热 点轮动的速度明显加强，追高盈利的难度会明显增加。 ...

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Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the construction materials and coal industries performed well during the period, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.67% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 2.33% [2][9] - In the recent 12 periods, the comprehensive and pharmaceutical industries showed strong performance, suggesting potential investment opportunities in these sectors [9] - Active equity funds focusing on electronics and coal industries also demonstrated superior performance during this period [14] Group 2 - Among various fund types, actively managed stock funds increased by 1.55%, while mixed funds rose by 1.63%, and bond funds saw a slight decline of 0.16% [2] - The average return of convertible bond funds was notably high at 12.46% year-to-date, indicating a strong performance in this category [17] - QDII funds, particularly those focused on Asia-Pacific and emerging markets, led the performance with an increase of 2.56% during the period [19][21]

Core Viewpoint - Multiple funds have issued premium risk alerts, particularly QDII funds, indicating a significant increase in premium risk notifications since July, with a notable impact on investor decisions [1][3]. Group 1: Premium Risk Alerts - As of July 28, five funds issued premium risk alerts, contributing to over 70 notifications in July alone, with six out of ten being QDII funds [1][3]. - The Guotai S&P 500 ETF (QDII) and the Invesco Great Wall S&P Consumer ETF (QDII) have issued 21 premium risk alerts since July [1][3]. - The premium rates for the aforementioned funds reached 7.95% and 20.64% respectively as of July 28 [3]. Group 2: Market Performance and Fund Returns - The three major U.S. stock indices have shown year-to-date gains of 5.54%, 9.31%, and 8.62% respectively [4]. - The performance of QDII funds has been notable, with the Huatai-PineBridge Hong Kong Advantage Selected Mixed Fund (QDII) achieving a year-to-date return of 135.58%, ranking first among all market products [4]. - Other QDII funds in the healthcare and innovation sectors have also reported year-to-date returns exceeding 80% [4]. Group 3: Market Valuation and Investment Considerations - The forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 index has reached 23.3, indicating limited valuation attractiveness [5]. - Market analysts suggest that while the U.S. market may continue to trend upward, uncertainties remain, and significant investments should be approached with caution due to high premium risks [5]. - Investors are advised to monitor premium rates closely, with alerts for rates exceeding 5% and heightened caution for rates above 10% due to potential liquidity risks [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Last week (July 21 - July 25, 2025), bond yields oscillated upwards. The ChinaBond Composite Wealth Index (CBA00201) fell 0.39%, and the ChinaBond Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00203) fell 0.44%. Interest - rate bonds and credit bonds across all tenors and ratings saw yield increases, and most credit spreads widened. The bond market adjusted due to the release of negative factors, the US Treasury yield curve flattened, and the secondary market for REITs declined while trading activity picked up [3][10]. - As of July 25, the total scale of 39 bond ETF products in the market exceeded 500 billion yuan, reaching 510.505 billion yuan, a nearly 200% increase from the beginning of the year, with science - innovation bond ETFs as the core growth driver [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Weekly Market Observation 1.1. Pan - Fixed - Income Market Review and Observation - **Bond Market Review**: Last week, bond yields oscillated upwards. Interest - rate bonds across all tenors declined, with medium - and long - term yields rising significantly more than short - term ones. Credit bond yields across all tenors and ratings increased, and most credit spreads widened. The 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Treasury yields rose 3.38bp, 6.64bp, 9.14bp, and 7.07bp respectively [3][10]. - **Bond Market Adjustment**: The bond market adjusted due to the release of negative factors. The central bank's net open - market injection was 10.95 billion yuan last week. The money market was tight at first and then loose, with DR007 and R007 rising 14.56bp and 18.65bp respectively. The bond market adjusted significantly due to factors such as improved fundamental expectations, a higher issuance rate of 30 - year special Treasury bonds, and the stock - bond seesaw effect. In the short term, the broad - money direction is unlikely to change, and the money market may be a disturbing factor. The central bank's support means limited liquidity risk, but the stock market may continue to affect the bond market [10][11]. - **US Treasury Yield Curve**: The US Treasury yield curve flattened. At the beginning of the week, yields declined due to risk - aversion, then rebounded as tensions eased. On Thursday, lower - than - expected initial jobless claims data pushed up short - term yields. In the future, the FOMC meeting may keep interest rates unchanged, and strong economic data may further dampen rate - cut expectations. Short - term yields can be traded on the dips, while caution is advised for long - term bonds [12]. - **REITs Market**: The secondary market for REITs declined, but trading activity picked up. The CSI REITs Total Return Index fell 1.56% last week. After the decline in July, the valuations of REITs projects adjusted, and the cash distribution rate increased. Individual bonds in sectors such as consumption and affordable housing have increased cost - effectiveness [13]. 1.2. Public Fund Market Dynamics - As of July 25, the total scale of 39 bond ETF products in the market reached 510.505 billion yuan, a nearly 200% increase from the beginning of the year. Science - innovation bond ETFs were the core growth driver, with the first batch of 10 products reaching over 100 billion yuan in scale in the first week after listing. The bond ETF market has diverse product types, and there is still room for development in terms of supply, product innovation, and investor structure [4][14][15]. 2. Pan - Fixed - Income Fund Index Performance Tracking | Index Classification | This Week | Last Month | YTD | Since Strategy Inception | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Short - Term Bond Fund Selection | - 0.08% | 0.07% | 0.59% | 4.00% | | Medium - and Long - Term Bond Fund Selection | - 0.30% | - 0.13% | 0.68% | 6.32% | | Low - Volatility Fixed - Income + Fund Selection | - 0.11% | 0.40% | 1.62% | 2.90% | | Medium - Volatility Fixed - Income + Fund Selection | 0.14% | 1.02% | 2.33% | 2.85% | | High - Volatility Fixed - Income + Fund Selection | 0.42% | 1.34% | 4.68% | 4.42% | | Convertible Bond Fund Selection | 2.24% | 4.77% | 11.60% | 15.09% | | QDII Bond Fund Selection | 0.33% | 0.42% | 3.17% | 8.16% | | REITs Fund Selection | - 1.61% | - 3.99% | 26.83% | 35.47% | 2.1. Pure Bond Index Tracking - **Short - Term Bond Fund Selection Index**: Aims at liquidity management, selects 5 funds with stable long - term returns, strict drawdown control, and significant absolute - return capabilities, and uses 50% Short - Term Pure Bond Fund Index + 50% General Money - Market Fund Index as the benchmark [17]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Bond Fund Selection Index**: Aims at stable returns by investing in medium - and long - term pure bond funds, selects 5 funds, adjusts duration and the ratio of credit and interest - rate bond funds according to market conditions [19]. 2.2. Fixed - Income + Index Tracking - **Low - Volatility Fixed - Income + Selection Index**: Has an equity central position of 10%, selects 10 funds with an equity central position of less than 15% in the past three years and recently, and uses 10% CSI 800 Index + 90% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index as the benchmark [24]. - **Medium - Volatility Fixed - Income + Selection Index**: Has an equity central position of 20%, selects 5 funds with an equity central position between 15% - 25% in the past three years and recently [24]. - **High - Volatility Fixed - Income + Selection Index**: Has an equity central position of 30%, selects 5 funds with an equity central position between 25% - 35% in the past three years and recently, and focuses on funds with strong stock - picking ability in the equity segment [27]. 2.3. Convertible Bond Fund Selection Index - Selects bond - type funds with an average convertible - bond investment ratio of at least 60% in the latest period and at least 80% in the past four quarters as the sample space, and selects 5 funds based on an evaluation system [29][33]. 2.4. QDII Bond Fund Selection Index Tracking - Selects 6 QDII bond funds with stable returns and good risk control based on credit and duration [35]. 2.5. REITs Fund Selection Index Tracking - Selects 10 REITs funds with stable operations, reasonable valuations, and certain elasticity based on the underlying asset type [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the week from July 21 - July 25, 2025, ETF funds had the highest average weekly increase of 2.40%. Other types of funds ranked by average weekly returns from high to low were: quantitative funds (2.25%), active equity funds (1.76%), QDII funds (1.12%), FOF funds (0.65%), bond funds (-0.04%), and REITs funds (-1.87%) [2][8]. - Year - to - date, QDII funds led with an average return of 18.73%, followed by REITs funds (16.80%), active equity funds (13.86%), quantitative funds (12.69%), ETF funds (12.46%), FOF funds (6.94%), and bond funds (1.68%) [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Cross - Category Fund Product Return Overview - This week, ETF funds had the highest average weekly increase of 2.40%, followed by quantitative funds (2.25%), active equity funds (1.76%), QDII funds (1.12%), FOF funds (0.65%), bond funds (-0.04%), and REITs funds (-1.87%) [2][8]. - Year - to - date, QDII funds had an average return of 18.73%, REITs funds 16.80%, active equity funds 13.86%, quantitative funds 12.69%, ETF funds 12.46%, FOF funds 6.94%, and bond funds 1.68% [8]. 3.2 Active Equity Funds - **Performance of Major Broad - based Indexes in A - share and Hong Kong Markets**: This week, all major broad - based indexes in the A - share market rose, with the overall increase lower than last week. The Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index had the best performance with a 4.63% increase, followed by the CSI 500 Index (3.28%), and the SSE 50 Index had the smallest increase of 1.12%. In the Hong Kong market, major broad - based indexes also rose, with the increase lower than last week. The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 2.27% and 2.51% respectively [12]. - **Performance of Shenwan Primary Industry Indexes**: Most Shenwan primary industry indexes rose this week. The building materials, coal, and steel industry indexes performed relatively well, with weekly increases of 8.20%, 7.98%, and 7.67% respectively. The public utilities, communication, and banking industry indexes performed weakly, with weekly increases of - 0.27%, - 0.77%, and - 2.87% respectively [15]. - **Overview of High - performing Active Equity Funds**: The average weekly return of active equity funds was 1.76%. Jinxin Industry Preferred Hybrid A had the best performance with a weekly return of 11.66%. High - performing funds mostly held stocks in the electronics, non - ferrous metals, and coal industries [17]. - **Overview of Industry - specific Active Equity Funds**: The average weekly return of industry - specific active equity funds was 1.51%, slightly weaker than the overall level of active equity funds. Cyclical industry funds performed brightly this week, with an average return of 4.86%. TMT industry funds had an average weekly return of 2.12%, ranking second. Pharmaceutical industry funds had a relatively weak performance with an average weekly return of - 0.15%. The average returns of other three types of industry funds were: mid - stream manufacturing (1.87%), consumption (1.56%), and financial real estate (1.35%) [19]. - **Overview of Non - industry Active Equity Funds**: The average weekly return of non - industry funds was 1.78%, slightly better than the overall level of active equity funds. The value - style funds significantly outperformed this week, with an average weekly return of 2.43%. The average returns of the other two styles were: growth (1.33%) and balanced (1.80%) [22]. 3.3 Quantitative Funds - **Overview of Quantitative Fund Returns**: The average weekly return of quantitative funds was 2.25%. Huabao CSI Rare Metals Theme A had the highest weekly return of 10.92%. In terms of strategy types, index - enhanced funds had the best performance with an average weekly return of 2.47%. The average weekly returns of the other two types were: active quantitative (2.21%) and stock long - short (0.10%) [24]. - **Overview of Returns of Major Index - enhanced Quantitative Funds**: Among index - enhanced quantitative funds this week, funds tracking the CSI 500 Index performed best, with an average return of 3.18%. The average weekly returns of funds tracking the CSI 300, CSI 1000, and Guozheng 2000 Indexes were 1.75%, 2.42%, and 2.31% respectively. In terms of excess returns, the proportion of funds achieving positive excess returns was 54.13%, similar to last week. Funds tracking the Guozheng 2000 Index had the highest average excess return of 0.19%. The average weekly excess returns of funds tracking the other three indexes were: CSI 300 Index (0.06%), CSI 500 Index (- 0.10%), and CSI 1000 Index (0.06%) [26]. 3.4 Bond Funds - **Performance of Major Bond Indexes**: This week, major bond market indexes declined overall. The CSI Aggregate Bond Index fell 0.49% to close at 260.12, the CSI Treasury Bond Index fell 0.59% to 246.44, and the CSI Credit Bond Index fell 0.37% to 213.20 [28]. - **Performance of Convertible Bond Indexes**: This week, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 2.14% to close at 463.57, with the weekly trading volume increasing by 14.16%. The median convertible bond price rose 1.66% to 129.66, and the median conversion premium rate rose 0.93% to 26.77% [30]. - **Overview of Bond Fund Returns**: The average weekly return of bond funds was - 0.04%. Galaxy Zhaoyi 6 - month Holding Hybrid A had the best performance with a weekly return of 9.26%. High - performing bond funds were mostly hybrid bond - type, convertible bond - type, and partial - debt hybrid - type [32]. - **Overview of Pure - bond Fund Returns**: The average weekly return of pure - bond funds was - 0.27%. The returns of short - term and medium - long - term pure - bond funds were - 0.10% and - 0.30% respectively. Fullgoal Dingli Pure Bond Three - month Regular Open Bond - type Initiated Fund performed relatively best, with an average weekly return of 1.43% [34]. - **Overview of Hybrid Bond Fund Returns**: The average weekly return of hybrid bond funds was 0.16%. The return of hybrid bond - type first - level funds was - 0.06%, and that of hybrid bond - type second - level funds was 0.32%. Hongta Hongtu Shengshang One - year Regular Open Bond A performed best, with an average weekly return of 5.92% [36]. - **Overview of Partial - debt Hybrid and Flexible Allocation Bond Fund Returns**: The average weekly return of partial - debt hybrid bond funds was 0.33%, and that of flexible allocation bond funds was 0.19%. Galaxy Zhaoyi 6 - month Holding Hybrid A performed best, with a weekly return of 9.26% [38]. - **Overview of Convertible Bond Fund Returns**: The average weekly return of convertible bond funds was 2.37%. Huashang Convertible Bond A performed best, with an average weekly return of 5.69% [41]. 3.5 ETF Funds - **Overview of ETF Fund Fund Flows**: This week, ETF funds had a net inflow of 2.007 billion yuan, a 96.43% decline from the previous week. Except for bond - type and cross - border ETFs, which had net inflows, other types of ETFs had net outflows. Bond - type ETFs had a net inflow of 9.969 billion yuan, a 86.41% decline from the previous week. Commodity - type ETFs had a net outflow of 5.544 billion yuan, about 3.5 times the change from the previous week. Stock - type ETFs had a net outflow of 4.496 billion yuan. Among them, scale - index ETFs had the largest outflow of 14.341 billion yuan, with a 49.48% change from the previous week [43]. - **Overview of ETF Funds with Top Net Inflows by Index**: Among the tracked indexes, ETFs tracking the Shanghai 30 - year Treasury Bond, CSI 30 - year Treasury Bond Wealth Index, and AAA Sci - tech Innovation Bonds had the top net inflows, with 5.272 billion yuan, 3.673 billion yuan, and 3.483 billion yuan respectively. Among equity indexes, ETFs tracking the Hong Kong Securities and Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index had the top total net inflows, with 3.762 billion yuan and 3.705 billion yuan respectively [47]. - **Overview of ETF Funds with Top Net Outflows by Index**: This week, the tracked indexes with top net outflows included bond - type, equity - type, and commodity - type indexes. ETFs tracking the Shanghai Market - made Corporate Bonds had a total net outflow of 2.717 billion yuan. Among equity indexes, ETFs tracking the CSI A500, Science and Technology Innovation Composite Index, and Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index had total net outflows of 6.737 billion yuan, 1.583 billion yuan, and 1.512 billion yuan respectively. ETFs tracking the SGE Gold 9999 Index had a total net outflow of 4.777 billion yuan [48]. - **Overview of ETF Funds with Top Net Inflows**: This week, the ETFs with top net inflows were mostly bond - type ETFs. The 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF Boshi had the largest net inflow of 5.272 billion yuan, followed by the Hong Kong Securities ETF with a net inflow of 3.762 billion yuan. Among theme - index ETFs, the Steel ETF and Chemical ETF also had top net inflows [51]. - **Overview of ETF Funds with Top Net Outflows**: This week, the Yinhuari ETF had the largest net outflow of 3.798 billion yuan. Among scale - index ETFs, the CSI A500ETF Invesco had a relatively large net outflow of 3.252 billion yuan. Among bond - type ETFs, the Short - term Financing ETF had a net outflow of 1.266 billion yuan [53]. - **Overview of High - performing ETF Fund Returns**: This week, the average change of ETF funds was 2.40%. The Rare Metals ETF Fund had the highest weekly increase of 11.80%, mainly driven by the tightening global supply of rare metals and increased demand in the new energy field, which pushed up the sector price. High - performing ETF funds were mostly theme - index ETFs, with investment themes such as rare metals and rare earths. In addition, among industry - index ETFs, the Rare Metals ETF Fund also had a top increase of 9.74% [55]. 3.6 FOF Funds This week, the average return of FOF funds was 0.65%. Guotai Industry Rotation Stock (FOF - LOF) A had the best performance with a weekly return of 7.97%. In terms of types, stock - type FOF funds performed best, with an average return of 2.91%. The average returns of the other two types were: hybrid FOF (0.69%) and bond - type FOF (0.01%) [57]. 3.7 QDII Funds This week, the overall average return of QDII funds was 1.12%. Huaxia Nomura Nikkei 225ETF had the highest weekly return of 5.02%. The average returns of different types of QDII funds were: stock - type (1.39%), hybrid (0.79%), bond - type (0.07%), and other types (0.55%) [59]. 3.8 REITs Funds This week, the average change of REITs funds was - 1.87%. Boshi Jinkai Science and Industry Park REIT had the best performance with a weekly change of 8.49% [61].

在此背景下，债基的赎回压力却依然不小。不过，机构对于市场后续发展不悲观。从短期来看，仍要关注风险资产对债市的影响，整体来说，债市的风险依 然可控。 上周，10年期国债收益率上升明显，"反内卷"政策下的权益市场备受资金关注，市场风险偏好提升明显。 | 证券简称 | 周收益率% | 证券简 | | --- | --- | --- | | 富国鼎利三个月定开债 | 1.433 | 长城嘉裕六个儿 | | 博时富宁纯债A | 1.277 | 民生加银家? | | 浦银安盛盛熙一年定开 | 1.175 | 东海锐安9 | | 宏利交利3个月A | 0.48 | 华安众盈中 | | 嘉实稳华纯债A | 0.25 | 汇添富稳丰「 | | 友添届6U大滚动持有A | U.ZUA | 国联女め | | --- | --- | --- | | 长信稳固60天滚动持有A | 0.171 | 招商鑫诚9 | | 新华安享惠泽39个月定开A | 0.136 | 东证融汇添添 | | 华泰柏瑞锦兴39个月定开债 | 0.099 | 招商招利 | | 中欧润逸63个月定开 | 0.099 | 嘉实3个月 | | 二级债基 | | | | ...

在本周开启募集的股票型基金中，被动指数型基金占主导，共16只，占股票型基金总量的 84.21%，另有3只为增强指数型基金。 与权益基金发行回暖不同，债券型基金发行略有降温。本周开启募集的新基中，债券型基金有4 只，占总量的12.9%，较上周的9只环比下降55.56%，其中混合债券型二级基金和中长期纯债型基金各2 只。 公募基金发行持续回暖。 公募排排网数据显示，本周（7月28日至8月3日），全市场有31只公募新基开启募集，较前一周的 23只环比增长34.78%。时隔一周，单周开启认购的新基数量再度回到30只以上，回归高热度态势。此 外，本周开启认购的31只新基平均认购天数为14.97天，显示公募新基发行节奏明显加快。 从新基类型来看，本周开启募集的新基较为集中，以权益基金为主，共26只，占总量的83.87%， 包括19只股票型基金和7只偏股混合型基金，较前一周的14只环比增长85.71%。 | | | 本周开启募集不同类型公募基金统计 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 一级类型 | 二级类型 | 基金数量(只) | 长比 | | 股票型基金 | 被动指数型基金 | 16 | 84 ...

从股指走势到两市成交量，从网友总结的"资产重估牛"到"反内卷牛"，种种迹象都表明，近期A股市场的 情绪已经步入了上升通道。 没错，姜诚选择用"多情景假设"来构建安全边际。在他看来，经济系统、社会发展都很复杂，企业发展也 不例外，任何外部条件的变化，会让企业的发展趋势转弯。因此当个体形成研究结论时，要意识到自己的 研究结论只是概率意义上的判断，即，你所认为的好公司有很大的概率不是好公司。 所谓"多情景假设"，是要对复杂性和随机性都心存敬畏，对可能发生的不同情况都进行展望，且尽可能多 地想象各种或有的不利情况，为比较坏的情况付出对价，构造出有安全边际的状态。这样一来，只要不出 现更为糟糕的情况，损失就会可控，甚至没有损失。一旦结果比预想的糟糕情况要更好，则会有意外惊 喜。 现实生活中，主动和小编讨论基金的朋友也多了起来。交流中我不难发现他们的纠结，既对市场充满了憧 憬有想参与的心，又怕自己刚入场就遭遇市场回调、蒙受损失。 是的，"投资有风险"不是一句空话，越是情绪走高时，越应该花功夫认真琢磨如何构建安全边际。其实最 近小编自己也在重读自家基金经理们的投资文集，期间发现无论是姜诚还是徐志敏，都曾对"安全边际"有 过 ...

所谓可转债，即可转换公司债券，是一种可以转换为股票的债券品种。相比普通债券，可转债具有双重 投资价值：一是纯债价值，可转债具备债券的票面属性，具有定期支付的票息和本金等基本要素；二是 转换价值，可在转股期内按照一定的规则转化为股票，从而力争获得对应份数的股权价值。 因此，我们可以将可转债简单视为"债券+股票期权"。当股市行情向好、看好正股（可转债对应的股 票）未来表现时，可行使转换权力，以期把握住股价上涨带来的收益；而当股市行情欠佳、正股股价走 弱时，则可以耐心持有可转债，追求利息收入。 得益于这种特殊的性质，可转债也展现出了较优的风险收益性价比，或能有效补充中低波动中等收益资 产的空缺，成为资产配置当中重要一员。Wind数据显示，截至7月22日，中证转债指数自2003年以来累 计上涨359.59%，相比中证全债指数、上证指数同期表现具有明显超额，且年化波动率为16.29%，介于 股债两大指数之间。 中证转债指数2003年以来各指标表现 | | 累计涨幅 | 年化涨幅 | 年化波动率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中证转债指数 | 359. 59% | 7.21% | 16. 2 ...