格隆汇7月31日｜另类资产管理公司KKR公布第二季度业绩，总收入同比增长22%，达到50.9亿美元； 调整后每股收益为1.18美元，高于分析师预期的1.14美元。管理资产规模增加14%，达到6860亿美元， 略高于分析师预期的6837亿美元。KKR联合首席执行官Joseph Bae和Scott Nuttall表示，我们在全球范围 内积极进行投资、变现和筹资，这些领域的势头正在反映在公司的财务结果中，我们对下半年的发展持 乐观态度。 ...

Group 1 - KKR reported a 9% increase in adjusted net income for Q2, reaching $1.1 billion, or $1.18 per share, surpassing LSEG's estimate of $1.13 per share [1] - Fee-related income grew by 17% to $887 million, driven by management fees and capital markets business, despite high market volatility due to trade tariff promises from President Trump [2] - KKR's total assets under management reached $686 billion, a 14% year-over-year increase, with $28 billion in new capital raised during the quarter [3] Group 2 - KKR announced the acquisition of HealthCare Royalty Partners, focusing on royalty rights from pharmaceutical sales [3] - The company is collaborating with Capital Group to seek SEC approval for a fund that combines public markets and private equity, targeting the growing demand from affluent retail investors [3] - KKR raised $6.5 billion for an asset-backed financing fund, aiming to identify debt purchase opportunities similar to its deal with PIMCO for Harley-Davidson [3]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of diversified asset allocation strategies in navigating market volatility and achieving stable investment returns over the long term [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Context - The rise of diversified asset solutions post-2008 financial crisis addresses three core investor pain points: the quest for yield in a low-interest environment, high asset price volatility, and frequent economic cycles [1] - The classic 60/40 stock-bond portfolio has achieved positive returns in 27 out of 36 years since 1990, with a 75% annual positive return rate, supporting the notion that asset allocation is the "only free lunch" in investing [1] Group 2: Company Strategy - Morgan Asset Management's global multi-asset product line has surpassed 3 trillion RMB, reflecting its commitment to long-term investment strategies that go beyond short-term speculation [2] - The company integrates global perspectives with local insights, utilizing over 1,300 investment experts across more than 70 locations to analyze market trends [2] Group 3: Product Innovations - Morgan Asset Management is launching the Morgan CSI A50 ETF in 2024, which will feature a mandatory quarterly dividend mechanism, contributing to a trend of increased dividends in broad-based ETFs [3] - The firm has introduced a range of Fund of Funds (FOF) products aimed at providing stable returns through diversified asset allocation, enhancing the overall investment experience for clients [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution and trends in Fund of Funds (FOF) investment, emphasizing the importance of multi-asset and multi-strategy configurations in portfolio construction, as well as the significance of fund selection and investment objectives in achieving stable returns [2][10]. Group 1: Portfolio Construction - The importance of asset allocation is well-known, with classic investment theory suggesting that 90% of fund performance comes from asset allocation. However, many domestic investors initially understood asset allocation as merely the proportion of equities, bonds, and cash, which requires high foresight and predictability [4]. - The diversification of investment tools has allowed for a more mature multi-asset allocation environment in China since 2022, with an increasing number of tools available for FOF investment, including QDII funds and commodity funds [4][5]. - A key aspect of multi-asset allocation is to maintain low correlation between different asset classes, ideally negative correlation, to enhance net value stability. However, investors should be cautious of sudden high correlations during extreme market conditions [7]. - A new direction in asset allocation is multi-strategy configuration, which has been effectively applied in quantitative private equity. This approach combines various effective strategies to achieve more stable excess returns [7][8]. Group 2: Fund Selection - The two main pillars of FOF investment are asset allocation and fund selection. Despite the increasing importance of asset allocation, the significance of fund selection remains high. The ability to select funds is fundamentally about acquiring the alpha capability of fund managers [11]. - The alpha capability of excellent fund managers has shown a trend of recovery since 2025, with active management of public equity funds significantly outperforming mainstream market indices [11][12]. - When assessing a fund manager's alpha capability, it is crucial to separate industry beta and thematic beta, as these represent structural risks rather than true alpha [12]. Group 3: Investment Objectives - Common investment objectives for public funds include pursuing absolute returns, outperforming benchmarks, and leading in peer rankings. Each of these objectives holds different importance for investors, managers, and peer institutions [15]. - Absolute return is considered the ultimate goal for any investment product, especially after recent market fluctuations. Regulatory bodies have begun to suggest that average absolute returns should be a key performance indicator for fund managers [16]. - Outperforming benchmarks is essential for establishing trust with investors and is a core competency for fund companies. Recent market changes have highlighted the need for funds to consistently exceed benchmarks to ensure healthy industry development [17][18]. - Leading in rankings should not be an explicit goal, as it can lead to herd behavior among fund managers. Instead, focusing on absolute returns and benchmark outperformance will naturally result in favorable rankings over time [19].

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar is experiencing its first monthly increase of the year, driven by strong economic data, reduced concerns about US asset prospects, and growing belief that the Federal Reserve may not lower interest rates for some time [1][2] Group 1: Economic Trends - The dollar index is trading at a two-month high and is expected to rise by 3% in July, marking its first monthly growth of the year [2] - The euro to dollar exchange rate has dropped below 1.15, heading towards its largest monthly decline since May 2023 [2] - Strong performance in the US stock market, particularly driven by artificial intelligence, has led to a rotation of investments back towards US assets [2][3] Group 2: Market Sentiment - There has been a significant shift in sentiment among global fund managers, with bearish positions on the dollar being one of the most crowded trades [2] - Speculative short positions on the dollar are slowing down, indicating a potential reversal in market sentiment [1][2] - The trend of favoring international assets over US assets is waning, as indicated by Barclays Bank's analysis [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts express mixed views on the sustainability of the dollar's strength, with some expecting a potential downturn due to external economic pressures [3][4] - The performance of US technology stocks and the AI boom is anticipated to continue driving the US market ahead of others [3] - Concerns about rising tariffs potentially stalling US economic growth are noted, which could impact market dynamics [3][4]

Group 1 - The consensus among global investors has shifted, with a reversal in the previous belief that Trump's tariff policies and fiscal deficits would harm the dollar and US stock market, leading to a preference for European stocks, emerging markets, and gold as safe havens [1] - The US economy showed an unexpected rebound in Q2, resulting in the dollar ending its downward trend and potentially achieving its first monthly increase in 2025 with a rise of 3% [1] - The previously strong performance of European stocks, emerging market assets, and gold has cooled, with gold experiencing its first three-month decline since November last year, and the euro falling below 1.15 against the dollar, marking the largest monthly decline since May 2023 [1] Group 2 - The trend of shorting the dollar and US assets has been one of the most crowded trades in the market, with investors now gradually reallocating to dollar assets, as the US economy and corporate earnings are expected to outperform Europe [2] - Barclays analysis indicates that the previous preference for international assets over US assets was driven by speculative shorting of the dollar, a trend that is now weakening, particularly as trend-following hedge funds have closed their short positions on US Treasuries and reduced exposure to European stocks [2] - A recent trade agreement framework between the US and Europe has alleviated some concerns over global trade tensions, impacting the premium logic associated with non-US assets like the euro, gold, and emerging markets [2] Group 3 - There are doubts about the sustainability of the strong dollar, with some analysts predicting a rotation towards US stocks and currencies, but not expecting this trend to last until the end of the year [3] - Some analysts maintain a long-term bearish outlook on the dollar due to concerns over Trump's borrowing plans and attacks on the independence of the Federal Reserve, although they are open to changing their views if US growth continues to exceed expectations [3] - Caution is advised as historical data shows that the S&P 500 typically performs poorly in August and September, suggesting a good time for reducing positions and adopting a defensive stance [3] Group 4 - A warning has been issued regarding the potential for a sustained dollar rebound to become a key pain point for global investors, as speculative funds withdraw from European stocks and reduce bearish bets on US Treasuries, indicating a significant shift in market sentiment [4] - If the current dollar strength continues, it could pose significant challenges for investors who have benefited from non-US asset allocations this year, potentially exerting further downward pressure on global stock markets, gold, and emerging market assets [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of diversified asset allocation as a strategy to navigate market volatility and achieve stable returns over the long term, highlighting that asset allocation has become a necessary approach in investment rather than an optional one [1][2]. Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategy - The classic 60/40 stock-bond portfolio has achieved positive returns in 27 out of 36 years since 1990, with a 75% annual positive return rate, supporting the notion that asset allocation is the "only free lunch" in investing [1]. - Asset allocation is compared to a balanced diet, where stocks represent "protein," bonds represent "carbohydrates," and commodities like gold serve as "vitamins," indicating that a scientifically balanced approach leads to true wealth health [1]. Group 2: Morgan Asset Management's Approach - Morgan Asset Management has a global multi-asset allocation product line exceeding 3 trillion RMB, emphasizing the responsibility to manage client funds with a long-term perspective rather than short-term speculation [2]. - The firm integrates global insights with local expertise, utilizing over 1,300 investment professionals across more than 70 locations worldwide to analyze market trends and provide timely insights [2]. Group 3: Innovations in Investment Products - Morgan Asset Management is launching the Morgan CSI A50 ETF in 2024, which will feature a mandatory quarterly dividend mechanism, contributing to a trend of dividend distribution among broad-based ETFs [3]. - The firm has introduced a range of Fund of Funds (FOF) products aimed at providing stable returns through diversified asset allocation, enhancing the investment experience for clients [3].

Core Viewpoint - Rongtong International successfully launched its first public fund, the Rongtong US Dollar Money Market Fund, in Hong Kong, marking a significant step in its asset management business [1][4]. Group 1: Company Development - Since merging with China Chengtong, Rongtong Fund has established a "dual-driven" development model focusing on state-owned capital operations and resident wealth management [4]. - The launch of the public fund is a crucial step in expanding Rongtong International's international business, enhancing its competitiveness in the global asset management sector [4][5]. Group 2: Product and Market Strategy - The money market fund serves as an essential cash management tool in the Hong Kong market, providing investors with a safe, liquid, and yield-generating investment option [4]. - Rongtong International aims to continuously improve its professional service capabilities and promote product innovation, aligning with global economic trends to offer diversified investment solutions [4]. Group 3: Collaboration and Resource Sharing - The investment advisor for the fund, Chengtong Asset Management, leverages the group's strong resource integration capabilities and professional investment team to ensure the fund's stable operation [5]. - Both Rongtong International and Chengtong Asset Management share resources and complement each other's strengths in asset management and capital operations, enhancing their international business expansion [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the previous consensus among global investors regarding the negative impact of Trump's tariff policies and fiscal deficits on the dollar and US stock market is facing a significant reversal [1] - The US economy showed an unexpected rebound in Q2, leading to a potential monthly increase of 3% for the dollar, marking the end of its downward trend in the first half of the year [1] - The US stock market is reaching new historical highs driven by the AI boom, contrasting with the cooling performance of European stocks, emerging market assets, and gold [4][10] Group 2 - The previously strong performance of European markets and emerging assets is declining, with gold experiencing its first three-month drop since November of last year [4] - The euro has fallen below 1.15 against the dollar, marking the largest monthly decline since May 2023, and the relative advantage of European stocks over US stocks has disappeared [4] - A shift in investor sentiment is occurring, with speculative funds that previously bet on dollar depreciation beginning to withdraw, as trend-following hedge funds close their short positions on US bonds and reduce exposure to European stocks [8][10] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the "rest of the world trade" logic is being re-evaluated, indicating a potential turning point in global asset pricing [7] - The recent trade agreement framework between the US and Europe has alleviated some concerns about global trade tensions, impacting the premium logic associated with non-US assets [8] - There is a divergence in opinions regarding the sustainability of the dollar's strength, with some analysts predicting that the current trend may not last until the end of the year [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The rating agency China Chengxin International has maintained the "AAA" rating for Henan Asset Management Co., Ltd. for its 2023 first phase medium-term notes, indicating strong support from shareholders and good debt repayment indicators [1] Group 1: Rating and Support - The rating reflects the company's strong shareholder support and prominent strategic position [1] - The company's debt repayment indicators are performing well, contributing positively to its business development and credit level [1] Group 2: Economic Challenges - The agency has noted that macroeconomic downturns and capital market fluctuations are putting pressure on the company's asset quality [1] - The company has a significant amount of existing non-performing asset packages, which could impact its operations and overall credit status [1] - Equity investments and debt-to-equity swap projects are susceptible to capital market volatility, posing additional risks [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The credit level of Henan Asset Management Co., Ltd. is expected to remain stable over the next 12 to 18 months [1]