来源：中信证券研究 China Themes 中国主题 2026年投资展望 展望2026年，预计中国宏观经济呈现结构分化下的温和修复态势，全年经济增速或达4.9%，出口保持 韧性，投资逐步回暖，商品消费短期承压。2026年大类资产环境或呈现流动性边际宽松与经济温和修复 的特征，我们推荐商品>股票>债券。我们首推China Themes（中国主题）报告，聚合2026年大类资产展 望、宏观政策及产业投资看点，并梳理各行业重点公司，供投资者参考。 ▍大类资产：2026年大类资产环境或呈现流动性边际宽松与经济温和修复的特征，我们推荐商品>股票 >债券。权益方面，我们预计2026年万得全A全年涨幅5%-10%；港股预计迎来业绩触底反弹+第二轮估 值修复的戴维斯双击行情；美股在中期选举年"财政+货币"双宽松背景下，料将延续基本面增长动能。 债券方面，我们预计10年期中债收益率全年运行区间为1.5%-1.8%，节奏先下后上；10年期美债收益率 或维持3.9%-4.3%的区间波动。商品方面，原油供需格局由过剩转向平衡，布伦特原油全年或在58-70美 元/桶区间震荡；黄金在流动性宽松与地缘风险支撑下延续强势但涨幅趋缓，有望冲击 ...

Core Viewpoint - The individual insurance sector has shown strong performance in new policy premium growth, with leading companies like China Life, Ping An, Taikang, and Xinhua experiencing a growth rate of 40-60% in new individual insurance premiums as of January 1, 2026 [1][2] Market Environment - The continuous decline in bank deposit rates and the scarcity of medium to long-term deposit supply have made insurance products more attractive as low-risk savings alternatives, leading to a "deposit migration" effect [1] - A significant amount of fixed-term deposits will mature in 2026, further enhancing the appeal of insurance products [1] Product Structure - The introduction of a dynamic adjustment mechanism for the guaranteed interest rate in 2025 has led to a rapid rise in participating insurance products, which combine guaranteed returns with floating dividends [1] - From September to December 2025, participating insurance products accounted for 46% of newly launched life insurance, becoming a core driver of new policy growth [1] Policy Environment - The "reporting and operation integration" policy in the life insurance sector has curbed vicious price competition, shifting the focus of industry competition towards value-added services [1] - Regulatory adjustments have reduced the risk factors associated with equity investments for insurance companies, laying a foundation for improvements in the asset side of the industry [1] Future Outlook - The liability side of insurance companies is expected to maintain high prosperity, with strong demand for participating and savings-type insurance continuing [1] - The asset side is anticipated to benefit from a slow bull market in equities, with institutions predicting that new equity allocations by insurance funds in A-shares could reach between 300 billion to 770 billion yuan in 2026 [1] - The industry is entering a phase of "dual resonance" development on both the liability and asset sides [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment landscape in 2025, highlighting a year of significant growth across various asset classes, with exceptions in digital currencies, government bonds, and oil. The author reflects on the unpredictability of market movements and the challenges in making accurate predictions in such a dynamic environment [4][5]. Group 1: Economic and Market Trends - The Chinese government aims to reduce local government hidden debt from 14.3 trillion RMB to 7 trillion RMB by the end of 2025, indicating progress in debt management [6]. - China achieved a trade surplus of 1 trillion USD in 2025, a significant increase compared to previous years, where a quarterly surplus now matches the annual surplus of a decade ago [10]. - The prices of major commodities, excluding oil, have risen, alleviating the "no profit prosperity" situation for upstream and midstream manufacturing sectors [13]. Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - The external environment has shifted dramatically, with the U.S. under Trump's administration becoming more aggressive in foreign policy, impacting China's focus on external challenges [7][8]. - The article notes a divergence in industrial strategies between China and the U.S., particularly in sectors like semiconductors and AI, with China rapidly advancing in domestic production capabilities [15][16]. Group 3: AI and Employment Concerns - A significant prediction is made regarding a potential backlash against AI in the U.S., driven by concerns over job losses and the concentration of wealth among tech oligarchs [22][23]. - The article references a report by Bernie Sanders, highlighting the potential for AI to displace nearly 100 million jobs in the U.S. over the next decade, raising ethical and economic concerns about the future of work [24][25]. Group 4: Private Equity and Credit Markets - The private equity and private credit markets in the U.S. have grown significantly, with 72% of non-financial corporate loans now sourced from private markets, indicating a shift away from traditional public financing [46][54]. - The article warns of potential bubbles forming in private credit markets, where valuation practices may obscure true risks, similar to conditions leading up to the 2008 financial crisis [66][76]. Group 5: Chinese Household Savings and Stock Market Dynamics - Chinese households have accumulated 48.7 trillion RMB in excess savings from 2022 to 2024, driven by a decline in real estate investment and low returns on traditional savings [81][82]. - There is a growing possibility that these savings will flow into the stock market, particularly through insurance companies, as they seek better returns amid low interest rates [88][90]. Group 6: Foreign Investment and Perceptions of China - The article highlights a disconnect between Western investors and the current realities of the Chinese market, with many foreign entities lacking a nuanced understanding of China's economic landscape [109][110]. - It suggests that a shift in perception may occur in 2026, potentially driven by improved economic indicators or a favorable shift in the global investment climate [119][120].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has set two historical records on January 6, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4083.67 points, marking a nearly ten-year high, and achieving a record 13 consecutive trading days of gains, breaking a 33-year-old record [1][3][19]. Market Performance - On January 6, all three major A-share indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 1.50%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.4%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.75% [3][19]. - The market volume reached 2.83 trillion yuan, indicating strong buying enthusiasm among investors [2][17]. - The brain-computer interface sector saw a surge, with nearly 20 stocks hitting the daily limit, while the commercial aerospace sector also performed well, with several stocks reaching their daily limit [3][19]. Fund Inflows - The main driving force behind the current market rally is the continuous inflow of funds from insurance, financing, and foreign investments [2][18]. - As of January 5, 2026, the financing balance reached 2.54 trillion yuan, a historical high, while insurance funds allocated to stocks and funds increased by 1.49 trillion yuan since the beginning of the year [8][23]. - The market anticipates significant inflows from financial institutions due to the "opening red" effect, with a large amount of new premium funds available for market allocation [6][22]. Sector Performance - On January 6, sectors such as non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, basic chemicals, and defense industries led the market [4][20]. - The Wenke Brain-Computer Interface Theme Index surged by 12.97%, while the Commercial Aerospace Theme Index rose by 9.49% over the first two trading days of 2026 [3][19]. Investment Strategies - Institutions recommend a balanced allocation strategy in response to the market's historic performance, focusing on sectors such as AI, resilient external demand, domestic consumption, and high dividend stocks [11][27]. - The "dumbbell strategy" is suggested, emphasizing technology growth sectors like AI and semiconductors for offensive positions, while defensive positions should focus on cyclical assets like non-ferrous metals and chemicals [27][29]. - Investors are advised to avoid short-term speculation and focus on long-term industry directions and value from dividend assets [29].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has achieved significant milestones, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4083.67 points, marking a ten-year high and a record 13 consecutive days of gains, indicating strong investor confidence and a potential shift towards a balanced bull market in 2026 [1][3][7]. Market Performance - On January 6, all three major A-share indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.50%, surpassing last year's high and achieving a new ten-year peak [3]. - The market saw a trading volume of 2.83 trillion yuan, reflecting heightened investor enthusiasm [1]. - The brain-computer interface sector experienced a surge, with nearly 20 stocks hitting the daily limit, while the commercial aerospace sector also saw significant gains [3]. Sector Analysis - Key sectors leading the market included non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, basic chemicals, and defense industries, driven by expectations of global supply chain restructuring and strong performance in the insurance and brokerage sectors [4][6]. - The Wenke Brain-Computer Interface Index rose by 12.97%, and the Commercial Aerospace Index increased by 9.49% in the first two trading days of 2026 [3]. Fund Flow and Investment Strategies - There is a strong expectation for capital inflow into the market, particularly from insurance companies, which saw a significant increase in new premium funds available for market allocation [5][6]. - As of September 2025, insurance funds allocated to stocks and funds reached 5.59 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.49 trillion yuan since the beginning of the year [6]. - The financing balance reached a historical high of 2.54 trillion yuan on January 5, 2026, indicating robust market liquidity [6]. Future Market Outlook - Analysts predict a transition from valuation-driven growth in 2025 to profit-driven growth in 2026, with a more balanced market style emerging [7]. - The market is expected to maintain an upward trend, supported by macroeconomic recovery, with key sectors such as technology, consumer goods, and new energy likely to see rotation and valuation recovery [7][9]. Investment Recommendations - Investment firms suggest a balanced allocation strategy, focusing on growth sectors like AI, while also considering defensive assets such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals [11][12]. - Emphasis is placed on long-term investment in sectors with strong fundamentals, avoiding short-term speculative trading [11][12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that market risk appetite improved in December, and the spring market is expected to continue [1] Group 2 - Investment suggestions for January include focusing on sectors benefiting from the spread of AI technology and applications, such as optical modules, cloud computing infrastructure, robotics, consumer electronics, and intelligent driving [1] - Certain sub-sectors of non-ferrous metals are expected to benefit from the restructuring of global monetary order and supply-demand imbalances [1] - The cyclical market represented by real estate and general consumption remains tilted towards the left side, with attention on chemicals, power grid equipment, engineering machinery, white goods, and commercial vehicles [1] - Long-term capital inflow into the market is a prevailing trend, with a focus on high-dividend leading companies based on quality cash flow, volatility, and dividend certainty [1] - Improved risk appetite in the capital market is expected to boost the performance of the non-bank financial sector, with a focus on insurance and brokerage firms [1]

2025年以来，我国保险业在风险管理经验不断累积的基础上，在物联网、人工智能等新技术的支持 下，持续加力促进风险减量，取得显著成效。 风险识别能力显著提升。例如，应用与人工智能深度融合的智慧遥感技术，实现大范围、高频次的 地域监测，结合图像识别与数据分析能力，可以快速精准监测田间虫情、作物苗情、气候灾情、土壤墒 情，助力田间管理更科学，有效帮助农业保险精准承保和理赔，也有效提升农业风险管理智能化水平。 风险管理端口前移。例如，保险公司以产业链为线索，将制造企业风险管理延伸到能源、电力等重 点领域，通过风险评估、设备巡查、场景勘验等方式，提前识别和化解可能风险点，将管理端口推向风 险产生的"最初一公里"。 多层协同体系得以构建。保险公司作为风险管理枢纽，有效串联起政府部门、专业技术机构、救援 力量等多方主体。例如，一些保险机构组织专业技术人员深入车间厂房排查安全隐患；汛期各方协同开 展的提前预警、避险转移等服务，已经成为灾害应对的"标配"。可以说，政府主导、保险驱动、专业机 构执行、家庭企业广泛参与的"风险共治生态"正在形成并逐步完善。 当然，保险业推进风险减量仍面临一系列深层次挑战。 一是标准之困。风险减量是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The transition from Warren Buffett to Greg Abel marks the beginning of a new era for Berkshire Hathaway, with Abel emphasizing his mission to navigate the company smoothly rather than trying to replicate Buffett's legendary success [1][15]. Group 1: Transition of Leadership - Warren Buffett, who has led Berkshire Hathaway for 60 years, is gradually stepping back as he approaches retirement, with Greg Abel set to take over in 2026 [1][10]. - Buffett's tenure saw Berkshire achieve an astonishing total return of 5,502,284% from 1964 to 2024, compared to the S&P 500's 39,054% [1][10]. - Abel has been recognized for his ability to act decisively in investment opportunities, similar to Buffett's approach [15]. Group 2: Abel's Background and Achievements - Greg Abel, born in 1962, has a history of building strong relationships and has been instrumental in expanding Berkshire's energy sector since becoming CEO of Berkshire Hathaway Energy in 2008 [6][21]. - Under Abel's leadership, Berkshire Hathaway Energy's revenue grew from $2.3 billion in 1997 to $26.4 billion in 2022, with profits increasing from $139 million to $3.9 billion [7][22]. - Abel has also improved the operating profit margin of Berkshire's manufacturing, service, and retail segments from 4.9% in 2017 to 7.6% in 2023 [7][22]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Challenges - Analysts predict that Abel's management style may be more flexible than Buffett's, potentially leading to improved performance [24]. - Following Buffett's announcement of retirement, Berkshire's stock price fell over 10%, highlighting investor concerns about the transition [11][26]. - As of Q3 2025, Berkshire's cash reserves reached a record $381.7 billion, raising questions about how Abel will utilize these funds effectively [27].

Market Overview - The A-share market opened strongly in 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4000 points for the first time since 2016, closing above 4020 points for two consecutive trading days [1][2] - Analysts are optimistic about the market's ability to maintain this level, with many institutions predicting a potential upward trend towards 4500 points in the near future [3][21] Institutional Insights - Major brokerage firms have expressed bullish sentiments, with predictions for the Shanghai Composite Index to reach levels as high as 5000 points, reminiscent of the 2015 bull market [2][3] - Foreign investment banks like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have forecasted annual increases of 15% to 20% for Chinese stocks in 2026 and set target points for major indices [2][3] Sector Performance - The insurance sector has shown significant strength, with major companies like China Ping An and New China Life reaching historical highs, contributing to market stability at the 4000-point level [13][18] - The insurance sector's performance is attributed to its role as a stabilizing force in the market, benefiting from rising stock prices and favorable regulatory conditions [18][19] Fund Flows - Insurance companies have increased their equity investments significantly, with a reported 37.46 trillion yuan in total funds, marking a 16.5% year-on-year growth [19][20] - The influx of long-term capital from insurance funds is expected to enhance market stability and investor confidence, creating a positive feedback loop for further investment [19][22] Trading Activity - Margin trading has seen a gradual increase, with the total margin balance reaching 2.56 trillion yuan by January 2026, reflecting a steady recovery rather than a speculative surge [23][24] - The current trading environment is characterized by a cautious yet optimistic approach from investors, contrasting sharply with the rapid growth seen during the 2015 bull market [23][24]

险企股权变动的另一个原因是险企增加注册资本时引入新股东或原股东持股比例变动。据记者统计， 2025年以来，保险机构共披露了21例有关变更注册资本的公告，其中11例出现了股权变动。 日前，国家金融监督管理总局重庆监管局(以下简称"重庆金融监管局")发布关于三峡人寿保险股份有限 公司(以下简称"三峡人寿")变更股东股权的批复，同意重庆发展投资有限公司(以下简称"重庆发展投 资")受让重庆渝富资本运营集团有限公司(以下简称"重庆渝富资本")持有的三峡人寿约5.62亿股股份。 重庆金融监管局批复显示，受让后，重庆发展投资持有三峡人寿约10.01亿股股份，持股比例为33%； 重庆渝富资本持有三峡人寿约4.05亿股股份，持股比例为13.35%。 这是近年来保险机构股权变动的一个缩影。据《证券日报》记者统计，2025年以来截至目前，保险机构 共披露了33起股权变动案例，涉及26家保险机构，股权变动的原因包括股权转让和增资造成的股东持股 比例变动。 股权转让方面，除传统的不同企业持股划转外，保险机构的股权转让原因还包括国有股东出于股权结构 优化目的实施的无偿划转、被法院以抵债方式裁定抵偿、库存股转让等。 值得注意的是，多家险 ...