Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent appreciation of the Chinese Yuan against the US Dollar, primarily driven by the decline in US interest rates, and its implications for various financial markets including US bonds, US stocks, and Chinese assets [3][4][19]. Group 1: Currency Trends - Over the past year, the Chinese Yuan has appreciated significantly against the US Dollar, mainly due to the decrease in US interest rates [3]. - The decline in US interest rates has narrowed the interest rate differential between the US Dollar and the Yuan, facilitating the Yuan's appreciation [4]. - The US Dollar Index, which measures the Dollar's value against a basket of major currencies, reflects the Dollar's performance in the international currency market [6]. Group 2: Impact of Interest Rates on Currency - The cycle of interest rates is closely related to currency exchange rates; during periods of US interest rate hikes, the Dollar tends to appreciate, while during rate cuts, it depreciates [7][8]. - The Federal Reserve's significant interest rate hikes from 2021 to 2022 resulted in a 25%-30% appreciation of the Dollar against other currencies [8]. - Following the Fed's first rate cut in September 2024, the Dollar has depreciated against other currencies, including the Yuan [9]. Group 3: Effects on Financial Markets - Rising interest rates typically lead to a bear market in bonds, as higher rates decrease bond market values [11]. - The bond market has shown a slow bullish trend since the Fed's rate cut in September 2024, with bond index funds beginning to recover [12]. - The overall US stock market has also seen an upward trend since the onset of the rate cut cycle in September 2024 [16]. Group 4: Influence on Chinese Assets - Changes in US interest rates affect the exchange rate, which in turn impacts A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [18]. - The previous US interest rate hike cycle led to significant depreciation of other currencies, causing capital outflows and increased volatility in weaker markets like Hong Kong [18]. - Since the rate cut cycle began in September 2024, the Yuan's appreciation has attracted capital inflows into Chinese assets, boosting both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [19][20]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - Interest rates are short-term factors that can create opportunities for undervalued buying and overvalued selling in the market [22]. - A rising Dollar often leads to asset price declines, presenting buying opportunities during bear markets, while a falling Dollar can lead to price increases, creating selling opportunities during bull markets [22]. - Long-term investment strategies should focus on the intrinsic value and valuation of stocks, as interest and exchange rate fluctuations primarily provide opportunities for buying low and selling high [27].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing internal disputes at Chunhou Fund Management Co., Ltd. are significantly impacting its business operations and fund performance, with a notable decline in total fund size and potential fund terminations due to low asset values and investor numbers [1][2][3]. Group 1: Company Background - Chunhou Fund was established in 2018, located in Shanghai, with a registered capital of 100 million yuan. Its business scope includes public offering securities investment fund management, fund sales, and other activities permitted by the China Securities Regulatory Commission [2]. - The company has been facing internal conflicts, particularly between its major shareholders, which has drawn market attention [2]. Group 2: Management Changes - Qi Jieping, a key figure at Chunhou Fund, has been unable to fulfill her duties as a fund manager since May 2025 due to personal reasons, leading to the reassignment of her responsibilities to other managers within the firm [1]. - Qi Jieping's contract was set to expire in January 2025, and her departure has been complicated by the company's ongoing equity disputes [1]. Group 3: Financial Performance - As of the end of 2024, Chunhou Fund's total fund size was 23.142 billion yuan, a significant decrease from 32.422 billion yuan at the end of 2023 [3]. - By September 30, 2025, the total fund size further declined to 19.912 billion yuan, indicating a continued downward trend [4]. - Several funds managed by Chunhou Fund have issued warnings regarding potential liquidation due to their net asset values falling below 50 million yuan for 30 consecutive working days [3].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The improvement of A-share market efficiency provides a solid foundation for the development of passive investment, with the scale of passive equity funds in the domestic public fund market exceeding 50% in 2025 [5]. - The effectiveness of the A-share market is lower than that of Hong Kong and US stocks, and the effectiveness of small-cap and technology stock indices is weaker than that of large-cap stock indices. The effectiveness of the A-share market shows an overall upward trend [5]. - There is a significant negative correlation between the excess return of active funds and index effectiveness. As the difficulty of obtaining Alpha increases, the demand for diversified Beta and Smart Beta on the equity side increases, highlighting the importance of asset allocation [5]. - There is a balance point between the scale ratios of active and passive funds. In the choice of funds, it is recommended to allocate ETFs in the large-cap style market, select active equity funds in the mid-cap style market, and choose quantitative funds for small-cap style allocation [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 A-share Equity Fund Market: Passive Investment Proportion Exceeds 50% - In 2025, the scale of domestic passive equity funds exceeded that of active equity funds for the first time, and this trend continues. The reasons include the difficulty of obtaining sustainable excess returns from active funds, the improvement of A-share market efficiency, and the development of domestic investment advisory services [9]. 3.2 Rise in Passive Investment Proportion Due to Market Efficiency Improvement - As market efficiency improves, it becomes more difficult to obtain Alpha, leading to the rise of Beta investment. Passive investment includes pure passive investment and factor-based passive investment (Smart Beta) [14]. - There is a balance point between active and passive funds, and the scale ratio of passive investment will not increase indefinitely. Ideal asset allocation should be an organic combination based on the market cycle, asset categories, and strategy capacity [15]. 3.3 Market Efficiency and Testing Methods 3.3.1 Origin and Connotation of the Efficient Market Theory - The study of market efficiency can be traced back to 1889, and Eugene Fama formally defined and improved the efficient market theory, dividing market efficiency into three levels: weak, semi-strong, and strong [18][19][20]. 3.3.2 Testing Methods for the Efficient Market Theory - **Weak Form Tests**: By testing whether the price sequence residual is white noise, it can be determined whether the stock price is likely to follow a random walk, which is used to judge market efficiency. The Ljung - Box test is commonly used for white noise testing [21][25][27]. - **Semi - Strong Form Tests**: Economists generally use the event study method to test the reaction speed of stock prices to public information [29]. - **Strong Form Tests**: This tests whether investors can obtain excess returns using insider information. It studies the returns of professional investors or insiders [30][31]. 3.4 Exploration of Market Efficiency in A-share, Hong Kong, and US Stocks - Since 2013, the efficiency of A-share has been slightly lower than that of Hong Kong and US stocks, and the efficiency of small-cap and technology stock indices is weaker than that of large-cap stock indices. After 2018, the efficiency of the A-share market has increased rapidly [34][38][40]. - There is a significant negative correlation between the excess return of active funds and index efficiency. As market efficiency improves, the difficulty of obtaining Alpha in A-shares increases [43]. 3.5 Fund Investment Choices under the Background of Improved Market Efficiency 3.5.1 ETF: Emphasizing Multi-Asset ETFs and Equity Smart Beta - As the demand for diversified Beta increases, the importance of asset allocation becomes prominent. ETFs are becoming increasingly important in the strategic position of asset allocation, and the proportion of ETFs in the holdings of public FOFs continues to rise, with diversified demand [47][50]. - Strategy ETFs (Smart Beta factor ETFs) show relatively independent trends, providing a source of differentiated Beta in the equity market and playing an important role in asset allocation [52]. - Industry ETFs are mostly market - capitalization weighted, with large-cap stocks contributing more to returns. Since it is difficult to obtain excess returns from large-cap stocks, investment is recommended to be based on long - term allocation [55][56]. 3.5.2 Active Equity and Quantitative Investment: Obtaining Alpha Returns from Small and Mid - Cap Stocks - Active equity funds are more exposed to mid - cap stocks. The trading environment of mid - cap stocks is more friendly to actively managed funds, with lower pricing efficiency and lower difficulty in obtaining excess returns compared to large - cap stocks, and relatively sufficient liquidity [61][62]. - Quantitative funds may be a better choice for investing in small - cap stocks. Quantitative strategies can improve the objectivity and winning rate of decision - making, and have advantages in terms of stock coverage and trading execution [69][70][71].

证券之星消息，1月6日新沃基金管理有限公司发布《新沃通宝货币市场基金暂停部分代销机构大额申购 及定期定额投资业务的公告》。公告中提示，为维护现有基金份额持有人的利益，保证基金的平稳运 行，自2026年1月8日起新沃通宝货币市场基金暂停部分代销机构大额申购及定期定额投资业务，申购、 定投上限金额为50.0万元，下属分级基金调整明细如下： 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article reflects on the investment performance over the past decade, highlighting that 2025 is expected to yield high average returns for investors, with a personal return of 18.39% for the year [1][3]. Investment Performance Summary - The annual returns from 2014 to 2025 show fluctuations, with 2025 achieving an 18.39% return, while the average annualized return over the years is 20.79% [2]. - Monthly performance in 2025 indicates a cumulative return of 18.39% by December, with notable monthly variations [2]. Investment Strategy Insights - The investment strategy has been conservative, focusing on low-risk investments, which has limited the ability to capture higher returns during bullish market conditions [3][4]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding risk and the need to balance between conservative and aggressive strategies, suggesting that maintaining a high equity position is crucial for better performance [5][7]. Future Investment Directions - The author contemplates future investment strategies, suggesting a focus on non-linear investments such as convertible bonds, which provide a safety net and align with a conservative investment style [5][8]. - There is a recognition that traditional low-risk strategies are becoming less effective, prompting a need for adaptation and exploration of new opportunities [4][6]. Market Trends and Considerations - The article discusses the challenges in the convertible bond market, particularly regarding the effectiveness of the downshift strategy, indicating that market conditions are evolving and require patience and strategic positioning [8][9]. - The potential for gold as a negative correlation asset is highlighted, suggesting it could be a valuable addition to a diversified investment portfolio [9].

1. 《招商 A 股流动性研究体系与 流动性指数——A 股市流动性研 究之四》，2016 年 8 月 人民币升值趋势叠加历年岁末年初是外资布局 A 股跨年行情的窗口，短期来看， 外资有望阶段性净流入贡献增量资金，外资的流入比较有利于 A 股的大盘风格。 从历史看，1 月融资资金往往在后半月转弱，保险资金多在年初净流入。整体来 看，1 月市场更可能呈现结构性增量资金流入的格局，有望助力 A 股延续上行 趋势，继续演绎春季攻势，风格层面推荐大盘风格。 定期报告 相关报告 证券研究报告 | 策略研究 2026 年 1 月 6 日 历年 1 月各类资金变化特征及其影响如何？ ——金融市场流动性与监管动态周报（0106） 2. 《A 股机构投资者全景图—股 票市场SCP范式研究之一》，2017 年 10 月 3. 《A500 ETF 大量净流入，融资 规模延续上行——金融市场流动 性与监管动态周报（1230）》 | 招商 A 股流动性指数 | | | --- | --- | | 流动性指标 | 数值/金额（亿 元） | | 资金供给 | | | 公募基金发行 | 100.40↑ | | ETF 净申购 | 368.77 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Xinyuan Consumer Selected Mixed Securities Investment Fund" is on the verge of liquidation due to significant underperformance, with a net value drop from 1 yuan to approximately 0.52 yuan, resulting in a cumulative loss of nearly 50% since its inception in March 2023. In 2025, it recorded a loss of 19.65%, making it the worst-performing active equity fund in the market during that year [1][13]. Fund Performance and Structure - As of the end of Q3 2025, the fund's combined asset size was only 0.29 billion yuan, far below the 2 billion yuan "survival line" stipulated in its contract, risking automatic termination by March 2026 if not rectified [1][11]. - The average return for active equity funds in 2025 exceeded 30%, with over 90% of products achieving positive returns, highlighting the stark contrast of Xinyuan's performance [1][18]. Investment Strategy and Style Drift - Despite its name indicating a focus on "consumption," the fund's actual investment trajectory has deviated significantly, showing a pattern of style drift and chasing hot sectors, leading to poor timing in buying high and selling low [3][15]. - The fund's top ten holdings shifted dramatically from a focus on consumer stocks to a heavy allocation in pharmaceuticals shortly after its launch, which was a sector in decline at that time [3][15]. Managerial Changes and Impact - The fund has experienced three managerial changes since its inception, with each manager exhibiting different investment styles, contributing to a lack of strategic continuity [6][19]. - The first manager, Liu Junwen, focused on pharmaceuticals but left with a return of approximately -27%. The second manager, Wang Chong, shifted focus to entertainment and consumer sectors but also recorded a similar return [6][21]. Trust and Investor Behavior - The fund's institutional holding ratio dropped from over 95% before 2025 to 42.94% by mid-2025, indicating a significant loss of trust among institutional investors [9][22]. - The shrinking fund size has exacerbated operational difficulties, making it more susceptible to liquidity shocks and risk concentration [10][23]. Industry Implications - The failure of Xinyuan Consumer Selected reflects deeper issues within the public fund industry, including product homogeneity and misleading naming practices that attract investments without delivering on promises [11][24]. - The emphasis on short-term performance and rapid fund launches without adequate research support has led to a reactive investment approach, particularly during market style shifts [11][25]. - The ongoing regulatory push for high-quality fund development emphasizes the fiduciary duty of fund managers, suggesting that poorly performing funds like Xinyuan may face accelerated exits from the market as part of a self-purification process [12][26].

Core Viewpoint - QDII funds are experiencing significant premium risks at the beginning of 2026, with over 20 funds issuing premium risk alerts due to trading prices exceeding net asset values [1][2] Group 1: Premium Risk Alerts - More than 20 QDII funds have issued premium risk alerts covering various products including Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and others [1] - On January 6, both Huaxia Fund and Invesco Fund's Nasdaq 100 ETF issued a premium risk alert, indicating that market prices are significantly higher than the reference net asset value [1] - This marks the third premium risk alert for these two funds in 2026, with multiple alerts also issued by other funds like the Huatai-PB Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF and the China-Korea Semiconductor ETF [1] Group 2: Market Conditions and Analysis - As of January 6, over half of the 200 cross-border ETFs in the market are in a premium state, with the highest premium rate exceeding 22% and over 20 products having a premium rate greater than 4% [2] - The surge in QDII product premiums is attributed to rising overseas markets and limited purchase quotas, leading investors to buy in the secondary market, thus driving up premiums [2] - High premiums pose significant risks, especially when liquidity is low, as large investments may face difficulties in selling, leading to potential losses [2] Group 3: Growth of QDII Funds - QDII funds have rapidly developed as a tool for investors to expand overseas asset allocation, with the total scale of QDII funds exceeding 810 billion yuan, doubling in size compared to the end of 2023 [2]

2025年新引进机构34家，注册资本金2718.8亿元，平均每家近80亿元。新引进资管机构10余家。驻区资 管机构资管规模超过21万亿元，约占北京市一半、全国八分之一。 新京报讯（记者戴轩）日前，西城区"两会"开幕，西城区区长郅海杰介绍，2025年西城全年地区生产总 值预计增长5%左右，区级一般公共预算收入完成438亿元，社会消费品零售综合预计增长3.5%左右。 2026年，西城区经济社会发展的主要预期目标中，地区生产总值增长5%左右，区级一般公共预算收入 增长3%左右，城镇调查失业率控制在5%以内，居民人均可支配收入稳定增长。 西城区金融街党工委委员、金融街服务局副局长王平介绍了金融业发展的相关情况。2025年前三季度， 西城区金融业实现增加值2307.7亿元，同比增长9%，占北京市金融业34.4%，占西城区GDP 49.1%。 回顾"十四五"，2021—2024年，西城区金融业增加值年均增速约6.8%，创造了全区45%以上的GDP和北 京市35%左右的金融业增加值，贡献了全区50%以上的区级税收和北京市近70%的金融业税收。 截至2025年12月，西城区累计纳入市"两区"项目数1061个，落地项目总金额达 ...

Group 1 - In the first two trading days of the year, 455 public funds have seen net value growth exceeding 5%, with several products surpassing 10% [1] - The best-performing products are primarily mixed and equity funds, with a significant focus on technology assets such as semiconductors, digital industries, and healthcare innovation [1] - Specific funds like Huatai Bairui's ETF for Korean semiconductor stocks and Yongying's semiconductor fund have shown impressive returns of 8.21% and 9.27% respectively, ranking them among the top in their categories [1] Group 2 - The current capital market is experiencing a stable upward trend due to liquidity, industrial cycles, and confidence, with A-share core asset valuations significantly lower than overseas markets [2] - Analysts predict that the technology sector will remain a key investment theme through 2026, with high-growth industries like artificial intelligence and semiconductors driving market momentum [2] - There are warnings about potential risks, including the transmission of overseas market risks to domestic markets and the possibility of overvaluation if significant market increases occur without corresponding improvements in macroeconomic conditions [2] Group 3 - Investment potential is seen in aerospace precision guidance and commercial aerospace, along with opportunities in robotics and advanced manufacturing [3] - Analysts recommend focusing on technology and healthcare theme funds, particularly in semiconductors and innovative pharmaceuticals, which have shown strong short-term and long-term returns [3] - The market environment is favorable for innovative industries, suggesting that investors should optimize their allocations to seize growth opportunities [3]