寻找确定性——2025年5月策略观点 分析师：张宇生 执业证书编号：S0930521030001 2025年5月6日 证券研究报告 4、风险提示 2 核心观点 1 核心问题一：指数韧性来自于内部确定性。4月A股市场先抑后扬，赚钱效应表现一般。短期来看，外部情绪风险扰动最严重的时 候或许已经过去，内部政策与中长期资金的确定性是指数保持韧性的主要驱动因素。 核心问题二：未来还会有哪些变化？外部变化可能会趋于复杂。关税政策下美国经济和通胀均压力增大，同时面临美元指数持续下 行、美债到期规模新高等问题，此外本轮特朗普政府恐怕难以通过2018年的减税手段来对冲关税对美国内部的冲击，因此关税问 题后续变化值得期待。不过，关税之外，美国对华或许还有其他"遏制"手段，参考2018年，或许以科技、制造业管制和投资限 制为主。不过国内仍有政策刺激空间，关注扩大内需、鼓励外贸、刺激投资与地产等方向。未来市场的主导因素将从风险偏好逐步 转向基本面。 核心问题三：有哪些确定性主线？1）内需消费，扩内需一直是近期国内政策的重点，未来有望持续迎来政策催化，此外，消费行 业业绩整体更具韧性，建议关注家居用品、食品加工、厨卫电器、小家电等行业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the financial performance of Supor in Q1 2025, highlighting revenue growth and stable profitability, driven by domestic sales recovery and strong export performance [3][4][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Supor reported Q1 2025 revenue of 5.786 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 7.59% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 497 million yuan, up 5.82% year-over-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 484 million yuan, reflecting a 4.98% increase [3]. Group 2: Sales and Market Dynamics - Domestic sales showed recovery, with the introduction of national subsidies in 2025 positively impacting small kitchen appliances, leading to a 2.5% year-over-year increase in retail sales [4]. - Export sales are expected to grow slightly above 5%, with the company capitalizing on pre-tariff shipping opportunities to the U.S. [4]. Group 3: Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 23.9%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year-over-year [5]. - The net profit margin was 8.6%, down 0.14 percentage points year-over-year, indicating stable profitability [5]. - The company effectively controlled its expense ratios, with sales, management, and R&D expenses showing slight reductions [5]. Group 4: Cash Flow and Financial Health - As of the end of Q1 2025, the company's net cash decreased to 2.6 billion yuan, down 2.4 billion yuan year-over-year, but still represented 20% of total assets, indicating a solid operational safety cushion [6]. - Operating cash flow for Q1 2025 was 584 million yuan, reflecting a 44% year-over-year decline [6].

证券代码：002959 证券简称：小熊电器 小熊电器股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 | 整方向，强化对核心用户的抓取，聚焦优势人群、优势用户和优势品 | | --- | | 类，收缩竞争激烈的刚需品类；还进行了降本增效工作，控制退货等 | | 费用，降低不必要的损耗。 | | 问：面对外部消费环境和消费者购买习惯的变化，公司未来三年 | | 的增长抓手？ | | 答：公司会在原先战略方面做一定调整。海外方面，尽管美国市 | | 场存在不确定性，但日韩、东南亚和欧洲等市场潜力大，仍会作为未 | | 来增长的重要路径。虽短期可能受关税影响，但长期坚定海外增长策 | | 略。 | | 国内市场已进入稳定期，去年行业稍有下滑，今年受家电消费补 | | 贴影响会有改善，但预计会有结构性的品牌差异。公司未来几年在国 | | 内会追求经营质量，而非规模增长，提高内部能力，维持合理的收入 | | 增长。具体举措上，公司会回归品牌建设，提升用户体验，进行更精 | | 细化管理。过去在制造能力、工厂和数字化建设上投入较多，目前已 | | 完成阶段性投入，接下来会进一步挖潜提高经营质量。 | | 问：公司 2025 年经营重点？ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 3.17%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 101 million yuan, down 21.91% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 107 million yuan, a decrease of 15.08% year-on-year [4][11]. - The revenue decline has narrowed compared to previous periods, with domestic sales expected to benefit from national subsidies for small kitchen appliances [11]. - The gross margin slightly increased by 0.32 percentage points to 26.33%, aided by national subsidies for high-priced products, while the operating profit was 102 million yuan, down 16.13% year-on-year [11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2 billion yuan, a decline of 3.17% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 101 million yuan, down 21.91% year-on-year, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 107 million yuan, down 15.08% year-on-year [4][11]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 26.33%, with sales expenses increasing by 3.28% year-on-year, leading to a sales expense ratio of 13.13% [11]. Market Position - The company maintains a strong market position, with a market share of 44.61% in online sales of soymilk machines, 43.44% in blenders, and 11.31% in rice cookers for Q1 2025 [11]. - The domestic small kitchen appliance market saw a total sales increase of 2.50% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with specific categories like rice cookers and soymilk machines showing positive growth [11]. Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a high-quality small appliance manufacturer, adapting to changes in demand and channels, and is expected to achieve net profits of 334 million yuan, 370 million yuan, and 401 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 21.79, 19.67, and 18.19 [11].

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 一、主要财务数据 （一）主要会计数据和财务指标 公司是否需追溯调整或重述以前年度会计数据 证券代码：002242 证券简称：九阳股份 公告编号：2025-017 九阳股份有限公司 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗 漏。 重要内容提示： 1.董事会、监事会及董事、监事、高级管理人员保证季度报告的真实、准确、完整，不存在虚假记载、 误导性陈述或重大遗漏，并承担个别和连带的法律责任。 3.第一季度报告是否经审计 2.公司负责人、主管会计工作负责人及会计机构负责人(会计主管人员)声明：保证季度报告中财务信息 的真实、准确、完整。 □是√否 √是□否 追溯调整或重述原因 (会计政策变更□会计差错更正□同一控制下企业合并□其他原因 ■ 会计政策变更的原因 公司自2024年1月1日起执行财政部颁布的《企业会计准则解释第18号》"关于不属于单项履约义务的保 证类质量保证的会计处理"规定,并对可比期间信息进行追溯调整。2024年第一季度重述前营业成本金额 1,509,291,296.17元，因该会计政策的调整，重述后第一 ...

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 家用电器 证券研究报告 家电行业 2024 年报&25Q1 总结 行业概览：Q1 家电板块营收业绩增长提速，现金流趋势向好。24 年家用电 器（申万）板块整体营收/归母净利润分别达 15832/1199 亿元，同比 +5%/+7%；25Q1 板块整体营收/归母净利润分别达 4237/330 亿元，同比 +13%/+25%。盈利能力方面，24 年板块毛利率/归母净利率为 24.6%/7.6%， 同比-1.4/+0.1pct；25Q1 板块毛利率/归母净利率分别为 23.6%/7.8%，分别 同比-1.6/+0.7pct。现金流方面，24 年/25Q1 板块经营活动现金流净额分别 为 1664/288 亿元，分别同比-19%/+116%。 白电板块：Q1 板块营收增速环比提速，净利率优化兑现。白电核心个股 2024 年营收/归母净利润分别同比+6%/+13%；25Q1 营收/归母净利润分别同 比+16%/+28%。收入端，美的集团 25Q1 收入增速领先行业；业绩端，受益 于白电龙头综合费用率优化、数字化变革等因素带动，美的集团、海尔智 家、格力电器、海信家电 25Q1 归母净利润同比 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with a slight improvement in Q1 2025, while maintaining a stable cash dividend policy [1][2][4] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 4.1 billion (YoY -18%) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 500 million (YoY -55%) [1] - For Q1 2025, revenue was 1.2 billion (YoY -1%), with net profit around 180 million (YoY +0.5%) [1] - The cash dividend for 2024 is set at 0.5 per 10 shares (including tax), with a cash dividend rate of 48% [1] Product and Brand Analysis - Revenue from personal care appliances, life appliances, and other products in 2024 was 3.96 billion, 60 million, and 110 million respectively, with declines of 17%, 39%, and 36% [2] - The Broye brand showed resilience with a revenue of 880 million in 2024 (YoY +2%), increasing its share of total revenue by 4.2 percentage points to 21.4% [2] Cost and Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 54.6% and 56.2% respectively, with slight year-on-year declines [3] - The sales expense ratio increased significantly in 2024, attributed to higher promotional costs and employee compensation [3] - The net profit margin improved in Q1 2025 to 15.6% (YoY +0.3 percentage points) [3] Cash Flow and Inventory Management - Operating net cash flow for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 300 million and 320 million respectively, down from 1.31 billion and 240 million in the previous year [3] - Inventory turnover days increased to 106 and 96 days for 2024 and Q1 2025, indicating a reasonable inventory level [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company revised down its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 680 million and 760 million, reflecting a 13% and 12% reduction respectively [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 23, 20, and 19 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] - The company is positioned as a leader in the personal care small appliance industry, focusing on "R&D innovation" and "brand operation" as core competitive advantages [4]

九阳股份（002242.SZ） 盈利水平环比上行，期待公司景气回升 事件：公司发布 2025 年一季报。公司 25Q1 实现营业收入 20.0 亿元， 同比-3.2%；归母净利润为 1.0 亿元，同比-21.9%；扣非归母净利润为 1.1 亿元，同比-15.1%。 证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 05 01 年 月 日 核心品类零售端恢复增长态势。根据奥维云数据，2025 年一季度九阳 品牌线上破壁机/空气炸锅品类销额同比+8.1%/+5.0%，市占率同比 提升 2.23pct/0.33pct 至 43.4%/19.8%。 盈利水平环比有所回升。1）毛利率：25Q1 公司毛利率 26.3%，同比 -0.6pct。2）费率端：25Q1 销售/管理费/研发/财务费率分别为 13.1%/4.4%/4.4%/-1.2%，同比变动-0.1pct/持平/+0.2pct/-0.1pct。 3）净利率：25Q1 净利率为 5.0%，同比-1.3pct，环比+4.5pct。 盈利预测与投资建议：考虑到公司 25Q1 利润率环比修复明显，我们 预计公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为 4. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 16.82 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.05 billion yuan, up 7.8% year-on-year [1][4] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, and a net profit of 250 million yuan, which is a significant increase of 43.0% year-on-year, indicating better-than-expected performance [1][2] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - The company's total revenue for 2024 was 16.82 billion yuan, with domestic revenue declining by 4.4% due to weak consumer demand, while overseas revenue grew by 21.7% [2] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 3.83 billion yuan, with overseas revenue increasing by 15.8% to 2.97 billion yuan, while domestic revenue decreased by 4.9% to 860 million yuan [2] Profitability - The company's net profit for 2024 was 1.05 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 6.3%, a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year. In Q1 2025, the net profit margin improved to 6.4% [3] - The gross profit margin for 2024 increased by 0.5 percentage points to 22.4%, attributed to cost reduction and efficiency improvements, along with a significant reduction in hedging-related losses [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to maintain strong growth in overseas sales, with projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 1.16 billion yuan, 1.30 billion yuan, and 1.43 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 10.1%, 12.0%, and 10.2% [4] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios for these years are projected to be 10x, 9x, and 8x, respectively [4]

证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 30 日 [Table_Title] 24 年业绩明显承压，25Q1 净利率同比改善 [Table_Title2] 飞科电器(603868) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 增持 | 股票代码： | 603868 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 增持 | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 52.88/32.0 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿) | 154.03 | | 最新收盘价： | 35.36 | 自由流通市值(亿) | 154.03 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 435.60 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 2024 年年报：2024 年，公司实现营业收入 41.47 亿元，同比下降 18.03%；实现归母净利润 4.58 亿元，同比 下降 55.10%；实现扣非归母净利润 3.58 亿元，同比下降 59.55%。2024 年度利润分配预案为以 2024 年 12 月 31 日的总股本 4.36 亿股为基数，拟向全体股东每 10 股派发 ...