每经记者 陈鹏丽 每经编辑 张海妮 尽管是"五一"小长假，第137届中国进出口商品交易会（以下简称广交会）第三期展会现场依然客流如织，人气高涨。 美国的"对等关税"并未影响中国参展商的心情和外国采购商的热情，但热闹之下，也有一些微妙的变化。比如，本届广交会，欧美客户数量减少，取而代之 的是其他国家采购商的"补位"。同时，中国参展商为求更多出路，纷纷加大订单争夺力度。 5月1日，中国对外贸易中心宣布，为帮助外贸企业积极应对外部风险挑战，本届广交会对出口展参展企业减免50%展位费。此举让参展商们受到鼓舞，因为 在他们看来，这说明了中国有很多措施应对当前的关税变局。 5月2日，《每日经济新闻》记者专访了中国大型文具出口商贝发集团股份有限公司（以下简称贝发集团）董事长邱智铭。在贝发集团的营收构成中，美国市 场占了近30%的份额。邱智铭不逃避"对等关税"给公司带来的影响，但他也表示，贝发集团手中有"牌"可打，公司有能力，也有信心化解关税影响。 "美国人每人每年用我们3~5支笔。他们不用我们的，就要花高几倍的价格去买国际品牌。"邱智铭说，"我们的预期是，二季度会受到影响，三季度会恢复， 四季度会逆势增长。全年预计依然能够 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4][10] Core Views - The company is expected to experience a gradual recovery in its traditional core business and new business segments, leading to long-term stable growth [10] - Despite short-term performance pressures, the company has shown signs of improvement that are anticipated to be released in the future [10] Financial Summary - Total shares outstanding: 923.83 million [2] - Market price: ¥31.32 [2] - Market capitalization: ¥28,934.31 million [2] - Revenue forecast for 2023A: ¥23,351 million, with a growth rate of 17% [4] - Projected revenue for 2024A: ¥24,228 million, with a growth rate of 4% [4] - Projected net profit for 2025E: ¥1,693 million, with a growth rate of 21% [4] - Projected EPS for 2025E: ¥1.83 [4] Business Performance - The company reported a revenue of ¥5.645 billion in writing tools, showing a slight decline of 0.07% year-on-year [8] - The online business segment, particularly Morning Glory Technology, achieved a revenue of ¥3.08 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.57% [10] - The retail segment, including Jiuwu Miscellaneous Society, reported a revenue of ¥4.01 billion, with an increase of 8.03% year-on-year [9] Profitability Metrics - The overall gross margin improved slightly to 20.65%, an increase of 0.48 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The net profit margin decreased to 6.28%, down 1.08 percentage points from the previous year [7] - The projected net asset return rate for 2025E is 15% [4]

Group 1 - The investment rating for the industry is not explicitly stated in the provided content [2] - The core viewpoint of the report highlights that the company, 卡游, is a leading enterprise in the domestic collectible card game market, achieving significant revenue growth and expanding its product lines into stationery and other toy categories [4][6][18] - The report indicates that the collectible card game segment has the fastest growth rate in the entertainment toy industry, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 56.6% from 2019 to 2024, and the market size is projected to reach 263 billion RMB in 2024, accounting for 25.8% of the overall entertainment toy market [4][33][37] Group 2 - The company has a diversified IP matrix with 70 IPs, including popular franchises like Ultraman and My Little Pony, which contribute significantly to its revenue [44][46] - The company has established a strong operational capability in IP management, covering the entire process from market research to product design and marketing [49] - The company has a robust sales channel strategy, primarily relying on distributors, with a gradual shift towards direct sales and online platforms [64][66] Group 3 - The financial performance of the company shows a rapid revenue increase, with a reported revenue of 100.6 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 277.8% [4][18] - The revenue breakdown indicates that collectible card games accounted for 81.5% of total revenue in 2024, although this represents a slight decline from previous years [18][57] - The company plans to use IPO proceeds to expand production facilities, enhance IP resources, and strengthen digital operations [23][25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future investment returns [8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.245 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.39%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 318 million yuan, down 16.23% year-on-year [5]. - The company is actively expanding into the "second dimension IP" sector, focusing on products that appeal to younger consumers, enhancing the emotional value of its offerings [7]. - The report projects revenue growth for 2025-2027 at 7.5%, 6.4%, and 5.5% respectively, with net profits expected to grow by 7.6%, 9.2%, and 8.5% in the same period [8]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's gross margin was 20.65%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.86 percentage points to 6.07% [6]. - The company’s revenue from various product lines showed mixed results, with writing tools and office supplies experiencing slight declines, while the "Morning Light Living Hall" and "Morning Light Technology" segments saw growth [5]. - The company expects revenues of 26.056 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected net profit of 1.502 billion yuan, reflecting a recovery trend after a challenging 2024 [10].

Core Viewpoint - Morning Glory Co., Ltd. reported a decline in both revenue and net profit for the first quarter of 2025, marking the first such occurrence since 2021, with revenue at 5.245 billion yuan, down 4.39% year-on-year, and net profit at 318 million yuan, down 16.23% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, Morning Glory achieved total revenue of 24.228 billion yuan, an increase of 3.76% year-on-year, while net profit was 1.396 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.58% year-on-year [1] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a decline in revenue across major business segments, including writing instruments, student stationery, and office supplies, with respective revenues of 803 million yuan, 848 million yuan, and 2.790 billion yuan, each declining over 5% year-on-year [2] Business Segments - The company categorizes its operations into traditional core businesses and new businesses, with the former including writing tools, student stationery, and office supplies, while the latter encompasses office direct sales and retail stores [2] - The office direct sales business, which has been a revenue pillar, accounted for over 50% of total revenue, but its gross margin fell to 7.08% in the first quarter of 2025, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points year-on-year [2] New Business Developments - The retail store business, represented by Jiuwu Miscellaneous Store and Morning Glory Life Hall, is seen as a key area for brand and product upgrades, with 792 retail stores nationwide as of the end of the first quarter of 2025 [2] - Jiuwu Miscellaneous Store reported revenue of 388 million yuan in the first quarter of 2025, an increase of 11.37% year-on-year, but faced a net loss of 12.4428 million yuan in 2024 [3] Strategic Focus - Morning Glory's management indicated plans to enhance investment in IP (intellectual property) products and increase the proportion of proprietary brands to cater to changing consumer preferences, particularly among younger demographics [3] - The company aims to leverage its independent toy brand "Qizhi Haowan" to focus on IP incubation and brand collaboration, targeting the "two-dimensional IP" market [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 11.397 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.69%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 62.82 million RMB, down 18.32% year-on-year due to a provision for asset and credit impairment losses of 120 million RMB [1][2] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.212 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 0.98%, with a net profit of 48.87 million RMB, down 1.14% year-on-year [1] - The company is expected to focus on core clients and business scenarios in office procurement, which is anticipated to lead to stable growth in business scale [1] - The company plans to enhance IP collaboration in new stationery products, which is expected to contribute to growth [1] - After the impairment provisions, the company is expected to recover its profitability in 2025 [1] Revenue and Profitability - The B2B office supplies and new stationery business generated a revenue of 11.352 billion RMB in 2024, up 3.00% year-on-year, with a net profit of 22 million RMB, down 9.8% year-on-year excluding goodwill impairment [2] - The SaaS software and services segment reported a revenue of 45 million RMB in 2024, down 41.93% year-on-year, with a net loss of 110 million RMB, slightly narrowing from a loss of 112 million RMB in 2023 [2] Financial Metrics - The gross profit margin for 2024 increased by 0.21 percentage points to 8.59%, attributed to a higher proportion of high-margin businesses and improved operational efficiency [3] - The operating expense ratio decreased by 0.50 percentage points to 6.46%, with the sales expense ratio increasing by 0.10 percentage points to 4.99% due to higher marketing expenses [3] - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is projected at 222.91 million RMB, 280.47 million RMB, and 339.96 million RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.31 RMB, 0.39 RMB, and 0.47 RMB [4][6] Valuation - The target price for the company is set at 8.37 RMB, based on a PE ratio of 27 times for 2025, reflecting an increase from the previous target price of 7.03 RMB [4][8] - The current market capitalization is approximately 5.028 billion RMB, with a closing price of 6.97 RMB as of April 25 [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the leisure services sector is "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The consumer market is showing steady recovery, with March retail sales reaching 40,940.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9% [11][12] - The rural consumption growth rate continues to outpace urban areas, driven by the rural revitalization strategy [14][24] - The service consumption and cultural tourism markets are driving steady growth, with a significant increase in travel during the Qingming holiday [26][29] - The new energy vehicle market is experiencing rapid growth, with a retail penetration rate of 51.1% in March, supported by government subsidies [31][32] - The online retail market is showing strong growth momentum, with total online retail sales reaching 1.3 trillion yuan in March, a year-on-year increase of 8.9% [34][35] Summary by Sections Social Retail - In March 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 40,940.5 billion yuan, with a cumulative increase of 4.6% year-on-year for the first three months [12][22] - Rural consumption in March was 5,345.1 billion yuan, growing 5.3% year-on-year, indicating stronger resilience compared to urban areas [14][24] - Essential goods such as grain and oil saw a significant increase of 13.8% in retail sales, while beverage sales increased by 4.4% [21][24] Travel and Services - The service consumption market continued its strong momentum, with a year-on-year increase of 4.9% in service retail sales compared to goods retail [26] - During the Qingming holiday, 126 million people traveled, spending 57.549 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.3% and 6.7% respectively [29][30] Low Carbon and New Energy - In Q1 2025, the cumulative retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 2.414 million units, a year-on-year increase of 37% [31] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 51.1% in March, with government policies stimulating demand through subsidies [31][32] E-commerce - The total online retail sales in March reached 1.3 trillion yuan, with physical goods sales at 1.13 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [34] - The adjustment of operational models in response to high tariffs has led to a shift towards semi-managed logistics, reducing costs significantly [35]

新华社天津4月22日电题：忘字多、好字少，如何让孩子们"爱上写字"？ 新华社"新华视点"记者刘惟真 "匍匐""尴尬""亵渎""喷嚏""邋遢"……这些常见字，不少中小学生看了都认识，提笔时却写不出来。 常写错字、好字难寻，当前，一些中小学生书写能力不强，不少人都面临提笔忘字的情况。如何让孩子 们认识汉字之美，爱写字、写好字？ 部分中小学生书写能力不强 如今，随着手机、电脑的普及，不少人在生活中都存在"汉字失写症"。特别是一些中小学生只在完成课 堂作业时动笔写字，大多数时候靠拼音输入法打字，有时使用拍照、语音转文字等技术手段代替笔记。 天津一名小学生家长周先生说，孩子有时提笔忘字，对一些汉字的笔画结构、偏旁部首记忆模糊，经常 需要上网查某个字怎么写。 长期在文具行业工作的天津市鸵鸟墨水有限公司总经理黄强介绍，中小学生曾是墨水行业的重要用户群 体，但目前其书写频率降低，使用钢笔进行书写训练的学生更是寥寥无几，传统墨水的销量明显下降。 学生书写不佳的情况也日益普遍。在广东惠州一所小学任教的王女士说，班上不少学生写字较差，有的 下笔浅、写字小，有的歪七扭八、超格出线，还有的丢笔画、多笔画、乱连笔，字迹很难认清。 湖北省 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Company and Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance and strategies of **晨光股份 (Morning Glory Co., Ltd.)**, a leading player in the traditional stationery and IP product market, particularly focusing on the **潮玩 (trendy toys)** segment and its distribution channels [1][2][4]. Key Points and Arguments Importance of Traditional Channels - Traditional channels, such as school-side stores and grocery stores, are crucial for brands like **卡游 (Kawoo)** and **布鲁可 (Blukoo)** to reach younger consumers and facilitate immediate purchases, especially as the main consumer demographic for trendy toys is aged 25-35, accounting for over 70% of the market [1][2]. - The rapid expansion of trendy toy brands heavily relies on traditional distribution channels, with over 80% of sales for brands like Blukoo and Kawoo coming from these channels [2][3]. Distribution Network and Market Coverage - **晨光股份** has established a comprehensive distribution network, with nearly 70,000 retail terminals using its branding by the end of 2024, covering approximately 50% of the nation's primary schools despite a decline in the total number of schools from 257,000 in 2010 to 143,500 in 2023 [1][4][6]. - The company has a strong presence in 1,200 cities through partnerships and has over 700 large retail stores and thousands of authorized shops on various e-commerce platforms [4]. Inventory Management and Operational Efficiency - The company has improved its inventory turnover days significantly from 78.8 days in 2015 to 28.6 days in 2024, enhancing its inventory management capabilities through digital tools and strategic initiatives [1][7]. Product Optimization Strategy - **晨光股份** has implemented a strategy to optimize its product structure by phasing out low-margin SKUs and developing higher-end products. The price of writing tools has increased from 0.177 RMB in 2011 to 1.28 RMB in 2024, with a gross margin rising to 42.9% [2][8]. - The price of student stationery has also increased from 0.34 RMB in 2011 to 0.67 RMB in 2024, maintaining a gross margin of around 34% [8]. Market Perception and Future Outlook - Despite skepticism regarding the value of traditional stationery sales channels, **晨光股份** is positioned to benefit from its strong channel management capabilities and market presence, especially as the market evolves [10]. - Future profit predictions estimate **晨光股份** will achieve a net profit of 1.61 billion RMB in 2025 and 1.82 billion RMB in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 17.6 and 15.6, indicating a favorable valuation for a company maintaining double-digit growth [11]. Additional Important Insights - The company’s focus on enhancing single-store quality and utilizing digital tools has led to improved operational efficiency and sales performance [7]. - The ongoing transformation in consumer preferences towards trendy toys and IP products highlights the need for companies to adapt their strategies while leveraging traditional channels effectively [2][10].

Economic Overview - In the first quarter, China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year, indicating a stable employment situation with an average urban survey unemployment rate of 5.3% [1] - The urban survey unemployment rate decreased to 5.2% in March, down by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1] Employment Trends - Demand for mechanical engineers and automation engineers in industrial automation increased by 40% and 10% year-on-year, respectively [1] - The demand for algorithm engineers and machine learning positions rose by 44% and 18% year-on-year [1] Talent Acquisition in Technology Sector - Huagong Technology Industry Co., Ltd. plans to recruit 500 PhDs and 2,000 master's degree holders over the next five years to enhance innovation [2] Recruitment Events - The "Million Talents Gathering in South Guangdong" spring recruitment event featured over 20,000 quality job positions from 683 leading enterprises and research platforms, focusing on fields like AI, electronic information, and renewable energy [3] - Guangdong Renhe Robotics Technology Co., Ltd. expressed urgent demand for high-end talents, particularly algorithm engineers and decision-making engineers [3] New Employment Opportunities - The first quarter saw significant growth in job demand in online life services, logistics, elderly care, and resident services, with increases of 43%, 35%, 17%, and 10% year-on-year, respectively [3] - The aging population, with over 220 million people aged 65 and above, has created a substantial gap in the workforce for elderly care services [5] Emerging Job Roles - The development of the long-term caregiver profession aims to attract more talent to the elderly care industry and improve service standards [5] - The cultural, tourism, and sports sectors are also experiencing growth, with the creative industry employing over a million people [8] International Trade and Talent Demand - Increased overseas investments and partnerships have led to a 14% year-on-year rise in job postings related to international business, primarily in East Asia and Southeast Asia [9] Changes in Job Market Dynamics - There is a noticeable shift in recruitment patterns, with companies from regions like the Yangtze River Delta and Shandong increasing their presence [13] - The demand for roles in banking, accounting, logistics, and property management is on the rise, alongside traditional sectors [13]