季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 商 品 研 究 2025 年 09 月 17 日 铜：美联储决议前，价格谨慎 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 80,870 | -0.09% | 80900 | 0.04% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 10,117 | -0.71% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 70,647 | 1,776 | 175,014 | -4,242 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 16,815 | -218 | 292,000 | -2,646 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 33,692 | 3,049 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 150,950 | -1,675 | 10.47% | -0.79% ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View - Copper prices are driven by multiple logics and are expected to rise [1] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract yesterday was 80,940, a daily decline of 0.15%, and the night - session closing price was 81,380, a night - session increase of 0.54%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 10,189 yesterday, a daily increase of 1.24% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract yesterday was 68,871, a decrease of 22,685 from the previous day, and the open interest was 179,256, a decrease of 7,620. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 17,033, a decrease of 3,558, and the open interest was 295,000, an increase of 3,191 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper futures inventory yesterday was 30,643, an increase of 5,083. The LME Copper inventory was 152,625, a decrease of 1,325, and the注销仓单 ratio was 11.25%, a decrease of 2.21% [1] - **Price Spreads**: The LME Copper basis was - 61.93 yesterday, an increase of 11.49 from the previous day; the bonded - area warrant premium was 55, a decrease of 1; the bonded - area bill premium was 58, a decrease of 1; the price of Shanghai 1 bright copper was 74,300, an increase of 100; the spot - to - near - month futures spread was 80, a decrease of 5; the near - month contract to the consecutive - first contract spread was 60, a decrease of 240; the cost of the calendar spread arbitrage of buying the near - month and selling the consecutive - first contract was 226 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: Investors almost consider the Fed's interest - rate cut this week a certainty, and the Nasdaq has reached a record closing high for six consecutive trading days. The Trump administration announced that the import tariff on Japanese cars will be lowered to 15% starting from 00:01 on the 16th, Eastern Time [1] - **Industry News**: Anglo American agreed to merge with Teck Resources, which will be the largest mining merger in more than a decade. Peru's copper production in July increased by 2% year - on - year to 228,007 tons, and the production in the first seven months of 2025 was about 1.56 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia of Freeport McMoRan remains shut down due to rescue efforts for 7 trapped workers. Panama is preparing to negotiate with First Quantum Minerals on the resumption of the CP copper mine, and the negotiation is expected to start at the end of this year or early next year [1][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 1, with the range of [-2, 2] and classifications including weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [3]

Core Viewpoint - The proposed merger between Anglo American and Teck Resources, valued at $53 billion, could create the world's largest copper mine by the early 2030s, surpassing BHP's Escondida mine in Chile [2] Group 1: Merger Details - The merger focuses on integrating Teck's Quebrada Blanca (QB) mine with Anglo American's Collahuasi mine, which together could produce approximately 1 million tons of copper annually [3] - The integration plan includes a 15-kilometer conveyor belt connecting high-grade ore from Collahuasi to QB's processing facilities, expected to deliver an additional 175,000 tons of copper annually from 2030 to 2049 at lower costs and shorter timelines compared to independent development [4] Group 2: Production and Financial Impact - If completed, the merged entity would rank among the top five copper producers globally, with an annual output of 1.35 million tons, compared to Escondida's production of 1.28 million tons last year [4] - The companies anticipate generating $800 million in annual pre-tax synergies, leading to an additional $1.4 billion in EBITDA from shared procurement and operational efficiencies [5] Group 3: Operational Challenges - The successful operation of QB is critical, as it has faced issues such as cost overruns, pit instability, plant shutdowns, and waste storage challenges [6] - Analysts emphasize that before the combined facilities can rival Escondida, the operational restoration of QB is essential [7] - Wood Mackenzie estimates Teck's post-tax valuation at $10.8 billion, with $13.8 billion attributed to copper and $1.1 billion to zinc, factoring in potential operational setbacks at QB [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Financial Markets**: The A - share market has rebounded unexpectedly, with capital logic overriding fundamental logic. In the US, economic stagflation risks are accumulating, and large - cap technology stocks are expected to drive the index up. For US Treasury futures, the market is expected to oscillate and bottom out. For US stock index futures, they are expected to run strongly with high volatility [1][14][18]. - **Commodity Markets**: In the agricultural products market, the outlook for various products such as palm oil, sugar, and cotton is complex, with different influencing factors. In the black metal market, prices of products like coking coal and steel are expected to oscillate. In the non - ferrous metal market, copper prices are likely to remain high and oscillate, and different non - ferrous metals have different investment suggestions based on their supply - demand situations. In the energy and chemical market, prices of products such as crude oil, carbon emissions, and various chemical products also show different trends and investment opportunities [25][32][56]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US CBO significantly lowered the US economic growth forecast for 2025 to 1.4% from 1.9% in January. The inflation rate is expected to rise to 3.1%, and the unemployment rate is expected to reach 4.5% by the end of the year. The US consumer confidence index in September decreased, and the long - term inflation expectation rose. The market is expected to run strongly with high volatility [12][14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Treasury Futures) - In August, the new credit scale was lower than expected. The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations. The private sector's endogenous financing willingness is still weak, and the M1 growth rate is expected to rise and then fall. The bond market is expected to oscillate and bottom out [15][17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Ministry of Commerce launched anti - discrimination and anti - dumping investigations on the US integrated circuit field. The Ministry of Finance stated that there is still sufficient room for fiscal policy to exert force. The A - share market has rebounded unexpectedly, and it is recommended to focus on sub - sectors [19][20][21]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia may increase the mandatory palm oil blending ratio to 45% before moving to 50%. The palm oil market rebounded last week. It is recommended to wait and see for palm oil and soybean oil [23][25][26]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The 2025/26 sugar - making season in Yunnan may start in mid - to late October. India's sugar production forecast for the 2025 - 26 season remains at 34.9 million tons. Brazilian sugar production in the second half of August is expected to increase by 17.3%. Zheng sugar is expected to have limited downside space and may have a weak rebound in Q4 [27][28][31]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The import coking coal forward market is stable. Coking coal spot prices are weak, and the supply has recovered. Coke's first - round price cut has been implemented, and the second - round is expected. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [32][33]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Cotton spinning mills' immediate profits have rebounded, but consumption terminal support is insufficient. The USDA's September report shows little change in US cotton supply and demand and a decrease in global inventory. Zheng cotton is expected to oscillate, with limited upside space [34][37][39]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Steel inventories have increased. Steel demand has not recovered seasonally as expected, and prices are expected to oscillate due to limited downward space and weak demand [41][43][44]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Oil mills'开机 rates remain high. The USDA slightly adjusted down the US soybean yield forecast, and the ending inventory is higher than expected. The future trend of soybean meal depends on Sino - US relations [44][45][46]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch enterprises' profits show regional differences, with losses deepening in the Northeast and narrowing in North China. The futures price difference between rice and flour is expected to remain weak [47][48]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The成交 rate of imported corn auctions has increased. The market's speculation on old - crop corn is expected to cool down, and a bearish view is maintained in the medium term [49][50]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange adjusted the designated red date delivery warehouses. The futures price is oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on weather changes and pre - festival replenishment [50][51][52]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Canada launched a fast - track review mechanism for major mining projects. The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia is shut down. Copper prices are expected to remain high and oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [53][54][56]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The proportion of lithium iron phosphate battery loading is increasing. It is recommended to switch to a bearish view, paying attention to short - term risks and mid - term short - selling opportunities [57][58]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Leading enterprises raised silicon wafer prices. India lowered the GST on renewable energy components. The polysilicon market is expected to oscillate between policy expectations and concentrated cancellations, and it is recommended to focus on option and arbitrage opportunities [59][60][64]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The operating rate of Xinjiang silicon enterprises has increased. Industrial silicon prices are expected to run between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to focus on range - trading opportunities [65][66]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Two Indonesian mining companies were exposed for "illegal mining". The nickel market is expected to have upward potential, and it is recommended to consider going long at low prices [67][68][69]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The price of waste lead - acid batteries has dropped significantly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider going long at low prices in the mid - term [70][73]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc 0 - 3 spread is at a premium. Zinc concentrate port inventories have increased. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and focus on mid - term positive arbitrage opportunities [74][75]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EUA main contract price is oscillating. The carbon price is expected to run strongly due to the approaching compliance deadline [76][77]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs has increased. A drone attacked a Russian port. Oil prices are oscillating, and short - term geopolitical risks should be noted [78][79][80]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factory export prices have been slightly lowered. The industry is maintaining a 20% production cut, and it is recommended to focus on production cut sustainability and new capacity release [81][83]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The utilization rates of downstream styrene industries have increased. Styrene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the resolution of inventory contradictions after the peak season should be noted [84]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - PX prices have dropped. The supply - demand situation is expected to reduce inventory in the medium - to long - term. It is recommended to try positive arbitrage between months [85][86]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has decreased slightly. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The spot price is expected to turn down, but the downward space is limited [87][88]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. PTA is in a stage of neutral inventory, low valuation, and weak drive, and it is expected to oscillate and adjust [89][90][91]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The import wood pulp spot market is mostly stable. The pulp market is expected to oscillate weakly [92][93]. 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market price is slightly adjusted. The PVC fundamentals are under short - term pressure, but the downward space is limited [94]. 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The urea market is running weakly. The supply pressure is expected to continue, and the 2601 contract may decline further in the medium term [95][96]. 3.2.27 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash price is stable. It is recommended to short at high prices and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [96][97]. 3.2.28 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei is flat. It is recommended to focus on the long - glass 2601 and short - soda ash 2601 arbitrage opportunity [98]. 3.2.29 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The annual container throughput of Ningbo Zhoushan Port has exceeded 30 million TEU. The SCFI composite index has decreased. Freight rates are at risk of decline, and different trading strategies are recommended for different contracts [99][100][101].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 09 月 15 日 铜：宏观情绪驱动，价格上涨 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 81,060 | 1.16% | 80810 | -0.31% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 10,065 | 0.07% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 91,556 | 26,707 | 186,876 | 12,423 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 20,591 | 1,459 | 292,000 | 2,464 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 25,560 | 5,532 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 153,950 | -225 | 13.46% | -0.06% | ...

Group 1: Copper Price Trends - Recent copper prices have reached a five-month high due to macroeconomic policy expectations, supply disruptions, and resilient demand [1] - The domestic copper price in Shanghai has also seen fluctuations, with the main contract reaching a peak of 81,100 yuan/ton [1] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has increased significantly, with the market pricing in three rate cuts by the end of the year [1][2] Group 2: Supply Disruptions - The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia has halted operations due to an accident, impacting a significant annual output of 297,000 tons [2] - If the Grasberg mine remains closed for one month, it could lead to a reduction of approximately 4.5 million tons of refined copper production [2][3] - The long-term structural issues in global copper mining, such as declining ore grades and insufficient capital expenditure, contribute to supply constraints [2] Group 3: Demand Factors - Seasonal demand in traditional consumption areas is expected to support copper prices, particularly during the "golden September and silver October" period [3] - The demand from the renewable energy sector remains strong, with significant production and sales growth in domestic electric vehicles [3] - Global low inventory levels are also supporting copper prices, alongside expectations of continued strong demand from re-industrialization efforts [5] Group 4: Policy and Market Dynamics - Domestic policies tightening on scrap copper are expected to lead to a 5% month-on-month decrease in electrolytic copper production in September [4] - The market is closely monitoring the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision for potential impacts on copper prices [4] - The overall outlook for copper prices remains cautiously optimistic, with potential upward trends supported by macroeconomic policies and demand, despite concerns over future supply [5] Group 5: Corporate Strategies - Major mining companies, including Fortescue Metals Group, are actively exploring new copper assets in response to declining demand for iron ore [6] - Fortescue emphasizes a strategic approach to investments, ensuring long-term benefits while maintaining a healthy balance sheet [6]

Group 1 - In July, Chile's major copper producers reported an increase in output, with Codelco's production rising by 6.4% year-on-year to 118,500 tons [1] - Codelco's cumulative production for the first seven months reached 807,200 tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.2% [1] - The Escondida mine, operated by BHP, produced 114,800 tons in July, marking a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, with a cumulative output of 794,900 tons for the first seven months, up 10.3% compared to the same period in 2024 [1] Group 2 - The Collahuasi mine reported a production of only 34,200 tons in July, representing a significant year-on-year decline of 27.2% [1] - Cumulative production for Collahuasi in the first seven months was 223,700 tons, down 32.4% year-on-year [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The merger of two major copper mining companies boosts copper prices, and the demand for copper is expected to grow rapidly due to the dual - drive of global green energy transformation and data center construction, while the supply of copper mines is limited [1][2] - The Grasberg copper mine accident in Indonesia and the potential supply interruption may further exacerbate the copper concentrate supply gap and support copper prices [3] - The Fed's approaching interest rate cut in September and the long - term strong trend of copper have made the market focus on when copper will break the sideways trend [11] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Markets - On Tuesday, LME copper prices were strong. On Wednesday, September 10, 2025, SHFE copper rose slightly. The main 2510 contract closed at 79,790 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton or 0.18% from the previous day's closing price [1] - The spot market atmosphere is average, with relaxed spot circulation, active shipments by traders, and downstream price - pressing purchases. The spot premium continues to decline, and the refined - scrap price difference of bright copper in major Chinese markets has fallen [1] 2. Macro and Fundamentals - Anglo American and Canada's Teck Resources announced a merger on the 9th. If approved by regulatory authorities, it will be the largest global mining merger in more than a decade, with a combined market value of over $53 billion [2] - Driven by global green energy transformation and data center construction, the demand for copper is expected to grow rapidly, but the supply of copper mines is limited. Chinese mining companies are extending into the copper field, and Barrick Gold is investing in two copper projects and changing its name [2] - The Grasberg copper mine accident in Indonesia has 7 miners trapped underground. The mine has suspended operations for rescue. The 2023 copper production of the Grasberg mining area accounted for 2.5% of the global copper output. If the mine is shut down for more than a week or a month, it will exacerbate the copper concentrate supply gap [3] 3. Market Outlook - The temporary supply interruption of the large - scale Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia will have a certain impact on copper prices. The Fed's approaching interest rate cut in September and the long - term strong trend of copper have made the market focus on when copper will break the sideways trend [11]

Core Viewpoint - Sichuan Hongda Co., Ltd. announced a supplementary announcement regarding the phased investment and related transactions with its associate company, Tibet Hongda Duolong Mining, fulfilling prior agreement commitments [1] Group 1: Investment Details - The investment is a joint effort with the related party Hongda Group, and the equity structure of Duolong Mining remains unchanged [1] - Duolong Mining was established in 2014, with an equity structure of 40% held by Hongda Group, 30% by Hongda Co., and 30% by Shengyuan Mining [1] Group 2: Mining Operations - Duolong Mining holds two exploration rights, with the Duolong Copper Mine designed for an annual copper production capacity of approximately 300,000 tons [1] - Currently, the Duolong Copper Mine is advancing the application for exploration to mining transition, with multiple preliminary tasks progressing steadily [1] - The Duolong West Copper Mine plans to increase exploration investment in 2025, aiming to complete the detailed investigation report compilation and review filing by the end of the year [1] Group 3: Investment Progress - Hongda Co. and Hongda Group will invest in batches according to the progress of the projects [1]

Core Viewpoint - The formal development of the world-class Duolong copper mine in Tibet is approaching, with Hongda Co., Ltd. planning to increase investment in its subsidiary Duolong Mining Co., Ltd. alongside its controlling shareholder, Sichuan Hongda Group [1][4]. Investment and Financials - Hongda Co., Ltd. will contribute 159 million yuan to the investment in Duolong Mining, maintaining the shareholding ratios of 30%, 40%, and 30% among Hongda, Hongda Group, and Xizang Shengyuan Mining Group respectively [3][4]. - As of June 30, 2025, Duolong Mining's total assets are valued at 755 million yuan, with net assets of 535 million yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 29.18% [4]. Resource and Production Capacity - The Duolong copper mine is recognized as "China's only undeveloped world-class copper mine," with proven copper reserves of 20 million tons and ore resources of 1.44 billion tons, averaging a copper grade of 0.48% [4][5]. - The designed mining scale for the Duolong copper mine is 75 million tons per year, with an estimated annual copper production capacity of approximately 360,000 tons [4][5]. Development Challenges - The delay in the development of the Duolong copper mine has been attributed to challenging high-altitude conditions, significant upfront investment, and previous legal issues that led to the freezing of Hongda's shares in Duolong Mining [5][6]. - The judicial freeze on Hongda's 30% stake in Duolong Mining has been lifted, allowing for progress in the mining project [5]. Future Plans - Hongda Co., Ltd. has indicated that due to the large scale and high investment of the Duolong copper mine project, funding will be sourced through shareholder investments and external financing as development progresses [6].