Core Viewpoint - The State Council's Work Safety Committee and the Ministry of Emergency Management have emphasized the need for enhanced safety measures during the upcoming "May Day" holiday, highlighting recent accidents as a wake-up call for local governments and enterprises to improve safety responsibilities and emergency preparedness [1] Group 1: Safety Measures and Responsibilities - The Ministry of Emergency Management has pointed out that recent accidents in key industries reveal a lack of deep learning from past lessons and inadequate risk assessments, with some areas showing significant oversight and control issues [1] - There is a call for local governments and enterprises to strengthen their safety responsibilities and improve emergency plans to prevent major accidents and casualties [1] Group 2: Increased Risks During Holiday - The "May Day" holiday is expected to see a surge in public travel and tourism, leading to increased traffic in transportation, dining, entertainment, and accommodation sectors [1] - The transition from spring to summer brings about extreme weather conditions, which heightens various safety risks during this period [1]

Group 1 - The Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region's Wusu City Market Supervision Bureau is enhancing market regulation to create a favorable consumption environment ahead of the May Day holiday [1] - Focus areas include food safety, special equipment, key industry pricing, and consumer rights protection during the holiday period [1] - A total of 76 catering service units were inspected, with no illegal activities found [1] Group 2 - Price regulation efforts are being intensified to stabilize market prices and protect consumer rights during the holiday [2] - On-site price checks are conducted at farmers' markets and major supermarkets, focusing on essential goods such as grains, oils, meats, and vegetables [2] - Consumers are encouraged to report price violations through the "12315" complaint channel, targeting issues like price gouging and deceptive pricing practices [2]

二、全域排查，织密安全防护网络。对照安全生产标准，全面检查经营单位应急预案、消防设施及值班值守情况。针对"五一"客流高峰，指导完善应急方 案并开展多部门联合演练。聚焦网吧、游戏厅等重点领域，严查接纳未成年人、涉赌设备等违规行为，全面加强互联网上网服务营业场所监管，有效制止 未成年人进入网吧等违规经营现象发生。同时，查看经营执照手续是否齐全、管理制度是否合理完善、安全生产是否存在隐患。 三、突出重点，联合执法定点检查。重点对青海湖南岸公路沿线路段旅游客运市场、餐饮、住宿等进行专项检查。执法行动中各部门各司其职，对旅游客 运车辆、驾驶员营运资质、旅游包车经营行为、包价旅游合同、导游资质等方面进行了执法检查，告知旅游组织者必须承租合法合规营运车辆，确保游客 和车辆安全出行。同时，联合执法人员坚持执法检查与教育宣传相结合，现场对景区景点、旅游包车、宾馆、餐饮等从业人员开展安全教育，向旅游包 车、宾馆、餐饮经营者发放宣传单，普及相关法律法规，增强安全驾驶意识和遵章守纪意识。 随着文旅市场复苏，2025年"五一"假期及旅游旺季临近，人员流动与聚集风险加剧。为保障行业安全稳定，海南州文体旅游广电局高度重视、及早谋划， 成立 ...

Core Points - The article discusses the implementation of a new tax refund policy for international travelers in China, allowing for immediate refunds at the point of sale, which enhances the shopping experience and stimulates consumer spending [1][2] - The policy aims to simplify the traditional tax refund process, which was often cumbersome and deterred foreign tourists from making purchases [1] - The initial results of the policy have shown significant increases in sales and tax refunds in cities like Chengdu, with sales and refunds growing by 270% and 225% respectively in the first quarter of 2025 [1] Group 1 - The "immediate refund" service allows international travelers to receive tax refunds on-site after making purchases, significantly improving the shopping experience [1] - The policy has been expanded from pilot locations to nationwide implementation, indicating a strategic move to boost the inbound consumption market [1][2] - The new tax refund process has led to a notable increase in the number of international travelers engaging in tax refunds, with transaction volumes also rising dramatically [1] Group 2 - The policy is expected to stimulate related industries such as accommodation, dining, and transportation, thereby enhancing overall economic vitality [2] - Challenges in implementing the policy include the need for stores to adopt a tax refund management system and coordinate with local tax agencies, but these issues are being addressed through improved regulatory measures [2] - The introduction of policies like visa exemptions and immediate refunds reflects China's commitment to high-level openness and aims to attract more international visitors, fostering cultural exchange and economic cooperation [2]

贾东旭 高级宏观分析师 侯倩楠 宏观分析师 联系人： 贾东旭 报告正文 事件：中共中央政治局4月25日召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势。 下一步政策如何定？"坚定不移办好自己的事"，"根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政策"。 会议对外部风险保持高度警惕，对内强调"办好自己的事"的战略定力，将"稳就业"置于"四稳"之首。 针对 当前国际形势，政治局会议首次采用"国际经贸斗争"表述，与"反腐败斗争"措辞一致。在外部环境高度不确 定背景下，会议聚焦内部高质量发展，强调"坚定不移办好自己的事"，"着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳 预期"。 政策工具箱将呈现灵活性与超常规双重特征，会议提出"根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政策，加强超常规 逆周期调节"。 鉴于美国关税政策不确定性加剧对我国经济预测的扰动，叠加会议"强化底线思维，备足政 策预案"的要求，预计后续政策将密切跟踪高频经济数据边际变化，在波动窗口期适时加大调节力度，确保 经济运行在合理区间。 宏观政策有何新动向？财政政策加快债务发行和使用，货币政策创设新的结构性工具。 会议要求强化政策执行效率，明确提出"加紧实施"，"既定政策早出台早见效"。 一方面，政治局会议敦促 既定 ...

截至2025年4月20日，中泰资管风险系统对各大资本市场的系统评分情况如下： 沪深300指数的中泰资管风险系统评分为45.53，较上月47.51略有下降，市场情绪出现一定波动，整体风险 评分仍处于中等偏低风险区间。 沪深300估值较上月有所下降（本月38.93，上月45.01），显示出市场整体估值水平有所回落。从行业分布 来看，部分前期估值较高的行业如电子、计算机等，估值有所调整，而部分防御性板块或低估值板块的估 值相对稳定。 行业间估值分化有所减小。 目前，28个申万一级行业中钢铁、房地产、国防军工、计算机 的行业估值高于历史60%分位数；农林牧渔、纺织服装、公共事业、非银金融等行业的估值低于历史10% 分位数。 市场整体估值的调整，有超预期的关税冲击的影响，也反映了市场对经济复苏节奏和企业盈利 预期的重新评估。 市场预期分数较上月有所下降（本月48.00，上月56.00）。分析师认为，政策层面持续发力，财政政策和 货币政策协同配合，为经济复苏提供了有力支持。财政方面，当月地方基建支出有所改善，土地市场的恢 复虽不均衡，但政府债发行提速，继续支撑政府性基金支出。预计二季度财政仍将保持积极。但全球经济 复苏的 ...

（供稿人：祖丽皮耶 夏清泉） 文旅部门着重对旅游相关经营单位的资质和服务规范进行了检查，确保其合法合规经营，为游客提供优 质服务；应急部门对各场所的应急预案制定与演练情况进行了督导，提升应对突发事件的能力；电力部 门则对用电设施设备进行了全面排查，保障经营场所用电安全。 通过此次多部门联合检查，进一步强化了各经营主体的责任意识，及时发现并整改了一批安全隐患和不 规范经营行为。接下来，裕民县将持续加大市场监管力度，建立健全长效监管机制，以更加饱满的热情 和扎实的工作，迎接八方游客，让游客在裕民县度过一个愉快、安心的旅程，为裕民县旅游产业的高质 量发展保驾护航。 随着旅游旺季的临近，塔城地区裕民县即将迎来大批游客。为切实保障游客的消费安全与权益，营造安 全有序的旅游市场环境，塔城地区裕民县市场监督管理局紧密结合"实干争先年"活动精神，在县级领导 的高度重视与指导下，由局长亲自带队，联合文旅、应急管理局、电力等多部门，于4月23日开展了针 对住宿、餐饮、商超等重点领域的联合检查行动。 此次检查覆盖了县城内多家主要酒店、餐馆以及大型商超。在住宿方面，重点检查了消防安全设施是否 完备有效，如消防器材配备、疏散通道畅通情 ...

NOMURA 野村东方国际证券 一分钟了解日本 -日本"情绪消费"产业 上期我们介绍了在日本经济转型期下应运而生的三类"情绪消 费"。本期. 我们进一步探索在年轻人这三类情绪消费下衍生出 来的细分产业及产品。 特色住宿产业 Emo和Chill消费 "废校民宿"等 改造酒店兴起,利 即时成像相机 用老旧建筑打造 差异化体验 拍立得在手机拍 照冲击下,借助 户外运动产业 情怀与韩流再度 热销 骑行、登山露营 市场持续增长, "Solo 露营"愈 反能量饮料产业 发流行 内容来源 本内容根据野村东方国际证券2025年1月22日发布的证券研究报告《日本新消费研究之现象篇：情绪、情感和自我满足》 分析师 张影秋 （SAC执证编号：S1720522110001） 曾万霖 （SAC执证编号：S1720524050001） 往期推文回顾 一分钟了解日本｜日本"情绪消费"新潮流 本材料虽由野村东方国际证券有限公司（以下简称"本公司"或"我们"）研究部提供，但并非我们发布的证券 研究报告，仅系我们根据本公司已正式发布的研究报告内容制作。我们不保证本材料内容、观点、文字与正 式出具的研究报告保持完整性、一致性，您应通过查阅本公司正 ...

Manufacturing PMI Insights - The official manufacturing PMI for February 2025 is recorded at 50.2%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return above the growth threshold[1] - The average manufacturing PMI for the first two months of 2025 is 49.7%, lower than the average of 50.2% in the last quarter of 2024, suggesting a weaker manufacturing sentiment compared to seasonal norms[1] - The production index and new orders index for February are 52.5% and 51.1%, respectively, indicating that production is expanding faster than demand[2] Economic Trends and Risks - The new export orders index stands at 48.6%, reflecting a slight recovery but still indicating potential risks in external demand due to uncertainties in trade policies[2] - There is a notable divergence in sentiment among manufacturing enterprises, with large enterprises showing a PMI of 52.5%, while medium and small enterprises are at 49.2% and 46.3%, respectively, highlighting a reliance on large firms for recovery[2] - The manufacturing price indices indicate a potential narrowing of PPI declines, with the output price index at 48.5% and the main raw material purchase price index at 50.8%[2] Overall Economic Outlook - The comprehensive PMI average for the first two months of 2025 is 50.6%, down from 51.3% in the last quarter of 2024, suggesting a slower economic recovery trajectory[6] - The construction PMI for February is 52.7%, showing a strong recovery post-holiday, while the service sector PMI is at 50.0%, indicating a decline[5] - The overall economic sentiment remains cautious, with the need for further policy support for small and medium enterprises highlighted as crucial for sustained recovery[2]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for February returned above the threshold, indicating a relatively good state of manufacturing prosperity, with the average PMI for January and February overall better than in 2024 [1][3] Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI for February is 50.2%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, and 0.1 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years [2][3] - The average PMI for January and February is 49.65%, which is higher than the 49.15% in the same period of 2024, reflecting a better recent manufacturing climate [3] Economic Supply and Demand - Both supply and demand sides of the economy are performing well in the short term, with a potential short-term rebound in PPI readings [4] - The production index for February is 52.5%, up 2.7 percentage points from last month, and the average operating rate for six major industrial sectors is 71.0%, which is 2.0 percentage points higher than the same period in 2024 [4] Sector Performance - Among 15 major manufacturing industries, 7 have PMIs above the threshold, with the equipment manufacturing sector performing relatively well, such as electrical machinery at 57.1% and automotive manufacturing at 53.1% [5] - Conversely, some low-value-added industries are underperforming, such as non-metallic mineral products at 43.4% and petroleum processing at 42.6% [5] Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI for February is 50.4%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, driven mainly by seasonal recovery in the construction industry [6] - The service sector PMI decreased to 50.0%, while the construction PMI increased to 52.7%, indicating a seasonal rebound in construction activities post-Spring Festival [6] Future Economic Outlook - The overall economic performance is benefiting from previous consumption-boosting policies, tariff expectations, and the concentrated issuance of special bonds in the fourth quarter [7] - Future attention should be paid to the details of macro policies from the Two Sessions, the effects of consumption promotion on large items, and the impact of tariffs on exports [7]