Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On January 29, 2026, the number of overhauled plastic production units changed little, with the plastic operating rate remaining at around 89%, a neutral level. As of the week ending January 23, the downstream PE operating rate dropped 1.4 percentage points to 39.53% week-on-week. The overall downstream PE operating rate was still at a relatively low level compared to the same lunar period in previous years. Near the end of the month, petrochemical inventory was being depleted rapidly and was at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. Cold weather increased the demand for diesel for heating, alleviating demand concerns, and the escalating geopolitical situation in Iran led to a rise in crude oil prices. New production capacities were put into operation in January 2026. Recently, the plastic operating rate has slightly declined. The concentrated demand for plastic mulch has not yet started, and with the temperature dropping, terminal construction has slowed down, leading to reduced demand in the north. Some industries have entered the off - season, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline. With low valuations, cold weather, and the Iran geopolitical situation, the sentiment in the chemical sector has improved, and plastics are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. However, the improvement in the plastics supply - demand pattern is limited, and the sustainability of the plastics rebound should be treated with caution. It is expected that the L - PP spread will narrow [1]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - On January 29, the plastic operating rate remained at around 89%, a neutral level. As of the week ending January 23, the downstream PE operating rate dropped 1.4 percentage points to 39.53% week - on - week. The overall downstream PE operating rate was at a relatively low level compared to the same lunar period in previous years. Near the end of the month, petrochemical inventory was being depleted rapidly and was at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. Cold weather and the Iran geopolitical situation led to a rise in crude oil prices. New production capacities were put into operation in January 2026. Recently, the plastic operating rate has slightly declined. The concentrated demand for plastic mulch has not yet started, and with the temperature dropping, terminal construction has slowed down, leading to reduced demand in the north. Some industries have entered the off - season, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline. With low valuations, cold weather, and the Iran geopolitical situation, the plastics market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the sustainability of the rebound should be treated with caution. It is expected that the L - PP spread will narrow [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastic 2605 contract fluctuated upwards with reduced positions. The lowest price was 6956 yuan/ton, the highest was 7084 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 7049 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.42%. The open interest decreased by 18370 lots to 512824 lots [2] - Spot: Most prices in the PE spot market rose, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 100 yuan/ton. LLDPE was priced at 6820 - 7170 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8600 - 9280 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6870 - 8190 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 29, the number of overhauled units changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 89%, a neutral level [1][4] - Demand: As of the week ending January 23, the downstream PE operating rate dropped 1.4 percentage points to 39.53% week - on - week. The overall downstream PE operating rate was at a relatively low level compared to the same lunar period in previous years [1][4] - Inventory: On Thursday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory increased by 2.5 tons week - on - week to 47.5 tons, 8.5 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. Near the end of the month, petrochemical inventory was being depleted rapidly and was at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [1][4] - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose above $69/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $700/ton week - on - week, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $685/ton week - on - week [4]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 29 日 LLDPE：美金递盘暂少，月底成交平平 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 6967 | 0.99% | 626151 | 10434 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -167 | | -149 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -48 | | -31 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华 北 | 6800 | | 6750 | | | | 东 华 | 6900 | | 6850 | | | | 华 南 | 7000 | | 6900 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 期货偏强，上游前期库存转移，企业报价企稳反弹，月底代理开单及中游销售较弱。标品 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 28 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 1 月 28 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨多跌少，沪铝涨近 6%，集运欧线涨超 4%，沥青涨近 4%，铸造铝合金、沪金、氧化铝涨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On January 28, the plastic operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level. As of the week of January 23, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 39.53%, still at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years. Near the end of the month, petrochemical inventory reduction was fast, and the current petrochemical inventory was at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Driven by low valuation, cold weather and the geopolitical situation in Iran, the sentiment of the chemical sector improved, and plastics followed the market sentiment to fluctuate strongly in the short term. However, the improvement of the plastics supply - demand pattern was limited, the spot follow - up was limited, the basis weakened, and the sustainability of the plastics rebound should be treated with caution. Due to the new production capacity of plastics put into operation recently, the operating rate was higher than that of PP, and the concentrated demand for mulch film had not started yet, so the L - PP spread was expected to decline [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - On January 28, the change in maintenance devices was small, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased, with the overall still at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years. Petrochemical inventory reduction was fast, and the inventory was at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Cold weather increased diesel heating demand, and the geopolitical situation in Iran led to a rise in crude oil prices. New production capacities were put into operation in January 2026. The concentrated demand for mulch film had not started, and the downstream operating rate was expected to decline. Plastics followed the market sentiment to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the sustainability of the rebound should be treated with caution, and the L - PP spread was expected to decline [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastic 2605 contract increased in position and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6885 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6992 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 6967 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.31%. The position increased by 10434 lots to 531194 lots [2]. - **Spot**: The PE spot market mostly rose, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 100 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6820 - 7170 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8600 - 9280 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6850 - 8190 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On January 28, the change in maintenance devices was small, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level [1][4]. - **Demand**: As of the week of January 23, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 39.53%. The agricultural film orders were basically stable, at a neutral level in the same period in recent years, and the raw material inventory of agricultural film was basically stable. The packaging film orders increased slightly, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE was still at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years [1][4]. - **Inventory**: On Wednesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 40,000 tons to 450,000 tons, 110,000 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. Near the end of the month, petrochemical inventory reduction was fast, and the current petrochemical inventory was at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose above $67 per barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene decreased by $5 per ton to $700 per ton, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $685 per ton [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - PVC is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to high开工, high inventory, weak demand, and limited cost support. The V2605 daily K - line should pay attention to the support near 4860 [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of PVC is 4913 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2 yuan; the trading volume is 1121915 lots, a decrease of 38791 lots; the open interest is 1039839 lots, a decrease of 20469 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 998443 lots, a decrease of 29378 lots; the short positions are 1137859 lots, an increase of 10911 lots; the net long positions are - 139416 lots, a decrease of 40289 lots [3]. 3.2. Spot Market - The prices of ethylene - based PVC in East China and South China are 4890 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan) and 4930 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively; the prices of calcium - carbide - based PVC are 4716.92 yuan/ton (down 15.77 yuan) and 4731.88 yuan/ton (down 26.25 yuan) respectively. The CIF prices of PVC in China and Southeast Asia are 680 and 660 US dollars/ton respectively (both unchanged), and the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 670 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The basis of PVC is - 201 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan [3]. 3.3. Upstream Situation - The mainstream average prices of calcium carbide in Central China, North China, and Northwest China are 2750 yuan/ton (unchanged), 2715 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 2541 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan) respectively. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 150 yuan/ton (unchanged). The CFR mid - prices of VCM in the Far East and Southeast Asia are 402 US dollars/ton (unchanged) and 433 US dollars/ton (up 5 US dollars) respectively; the CFR mid - prices of EDC in the Far East and Southeast Asia are 189 US dollars/ton (unchanged) and 194 US dollars/ton (unchanged) respectively [3]. 3.4. Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 78.74%, a decrease of 0.89 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 80%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 75.74%, a decrease of 3.05 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 57.65 million tons, an increase of 1.49 million tons, including 52.74 million tons in East China (an increase of 1.12 million tons) and 4.91 million tons in South China (an increase of 0.37 million tons) [3]. 3.5. Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 91.45, a decrease of 0.45. The cumulative new housing construction area is 58769.96 million square meters, an increase of 5313.26 million square meters; the cumulative real - estate construction area is 659890.29 million square meters, an increase of 3824.09 million square meters; the cumulative real - estate development investment is 44895.98 billion yuan, an increase of 2871.41 billion yuan [3]. 3.6. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 19.9%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 20.93%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.9%, a decrease of 1.83 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.91%, a decrease of 1.82 percentage points [3]. 3.7. Industry News - From January 17th to 23rd, the PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.89% to 78.74%. The downstream product operating rate of PVC increased by 0.95% to 44.86%, among which the pipe operating rate increased by 1.6% to 37%, and the profile operating rate increased by 1.61% to 31.52%. As of January 22nd, the PVC social inventory was 117.75 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.92%. From January 16th to 22nd, the average cost of calcium - carbide - based PVC nationwide increased to 5175 yuan/ton, and the average cost of ethylene - based PVC decreased to 4924 yuan/ton; the profit of calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased to - 800 yuan/ton with deeper losses, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC increased to - 49 yuan/ton [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the text 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The output and capacity utilization rate of PE are expected to continue the upward trend, while the downstream demand is likely to remain weak The short - term L2605 is predicted to show a fluctuating trend, with the daily K - line focusing on the support around 6900 and the resistance around 7030 [2] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Futures Market - The closing prices of polyethylene futures main contracts, 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts all increased The trading volume was 559,235 hands (a week - on - week increase of 62,270 hands), and the open interest was 531,194 hands (a week - on - week increase of 10,434 hands) The 1 - 5 spread was 58 (an increase of 10) The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 20,345 hands (an increase of 1,725 hands) [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 6,869.57 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 28.26 yuan/ton), and in East China was 6,969.53 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 33.72 yuan/ton) The basis was - 97.43 (a decrease of 39.73) [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 60.66 US dollars/barrel (a decrease of 0.53 US dollars/barrel), the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 573.25 US dollars/ton (an increase of 8 US dollars/ton) The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 686 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton), and in Northeast Asia was 701 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton) [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate was 84.67% (an increase of 3.08 percentage points) [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rates of PE packaging film, pipes, and agricultural film were 44.96% (a decrease of 3.19 percentage points), 29% (a decrease of 0.33 percentage points), and 36.32% (a decrease of 0.61 percentage points) respectively [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 13.83% (an increase of 0.07 percentage points), and the 40 - day historical volatility was 15.65% (a decrease of 0.3 percentage points) The implied volatilities of at - the - money put and call options were 15.42% (a decrease of 1.04 percentage points) [2] 3.7 Industry News - From January 16th to 22nd, China's PE output was 698,900 tons (a week - on - week increase of 4.34%), and the capacity utilization rate was 84.67% (an increase of 3.07 percentage points) The average operating rate of PE downstream products decreased by 1.4%, with the agricultural film and PE packaging film operating rates decreasing by 0.6% and 3.2% respectively As of January 21st, the inventory of PE production enterprises was 335,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 4.37%); as of January 23rd, the social inventory of PE was 479,600 tons (a week - on - week increase of 0.48%) From January 16th to 22nd, the cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased by 0.22% to 7,202 yuan/ton, and the profit increased by 1 yuan/ton to - 530 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased by 0.54% to 6,524 yuan/ton, and the profit increased by 27 yuan/ton to 244 yuan/ton [2]

证券之星消息，1月28日塑料板块较上一交易日下跌1.71%，福莱新材领跌。当日上证指数报收于 4151.24，上涨0.27%。深证成指报收于14342.9，上涨0.09%。塑料板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002361 神剑股份 | | - 4941.27万 | 2.62% | -3819.85万 | -2.03% | -1121.42万 | -0.59% | | 002522 浙江众成 | | 3319.09万 | 8.86% | 89.17万 | 0.24% | -3408.26万 | -9.10% | | 002585 双星新材 | | 2042.61万 | 6.34% | 1550.73万 | 4.81% | -3593.34万 | -11.16% | | 605589 圣泉集团 | | 1916.52万 | 3.52% | -3274.13万 | -6.02% | ...

单独看2025年9月份，重庆市规模以上工业企业初级形态的塑料产量达到了2.9万吨，与2024年同期的数 据相比，9月份的产量增长了9.5%，增速较2024年同期高61.9个百分点，增速较同期全国低0.9个百分 点，约占同期全国规模以上企业初级形态的塑料产量1266.54696万吨的比重为0.2%。 摘要：【图】2025年9月重庆市初级形态的塑料产量统计分析 2025年1-9月初级形态的塑料产量分析： 据国家统计局数据，在2025年的前9个月，重庆市规模以上工业企业初级形态的塑料产量累计达到了 22.5万吨，与2024年同期的数据相比，下降了8.2%，增速较2024年同期高40.7个百分点，增速较同期全 国低19.8个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业初级形态的塑料产量10970.31113万吨的比重为0.2%。 图表：重庆市初级形态的塑料产量分月（累计值）统计 2025年9月初级形态的塑料产量分析： 图表：重庆市初级形态的塑料产量分月（当月值）统计 注：初级形态的塑料2004年及以前名称为塑料树脂及共聚物，简称塑料。 从2011年起，我国规模以上工业企业起点标准由原来的年主营业务收入500万元提高到年主营业务收 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Kaisheng New Materials (301069), has highlighted its PEKK product as a high-performance thermoplastic engineering plastic suitable for aerospace and other fields due to its excellent mechanical properties and thermal stability [1] Group 1 - The PEKK product exhibits superior mechanical performance, wear resistance, corrosion resistance, self-lubrication, insulation stability, and high-temperature usage [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 27, new maintenance devices such as Qilu Petrochemical's HDPE Line 2 were added, causing the plastic operating rate to drop to around 89%, currently at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased to 39.53%, still at a relatively low level in the lunar calendar of recent years. The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period of recent years. The cost - end factors like cold weather and the tense situation in Iran have pushed up the crude oil price. New production capacities were put into operation in January 2026. The plastic is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the sustainability of the rebound should be treated with caution. The L - PP spread is expected to decline. [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On January 27, new maintenance devices led to a decline in the plastic operating rate to around 89%, at a neutral level. As of the week of January 23, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 39.53%. The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period of recent years. Cold weather and the tense situation in Iran pushed up the crude oil price. New production capacities were put into operation. The plastic is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the sustainability of the rebound should be treated with caution. The L - PP spread is expected to decline. [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The plastic 2605 contract oscillated with increased positions, with a minimum price of 6,831 yuan/ton, a maximum of 6,920 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 6,899 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.23%. The position increased by 5,747 lots to 520,760 lots. [2] Spot - Most of the PE spot market declined, with price changes ranging from - 60 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,720 - 7,070 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,650 - 9,280 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,840 - 8,190 yuan/ton. [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 27, new maintenance devices led to a decline in the plastic operating rate to around 89%, at a neutral level. - Demand: As of the week of January 23, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 39.53%. The agricultural film orders were basically stable, and the raw material inventory was also stable. The packaging film orders increased slightly, but the overall PE downstream operating rate was still at a relatively low level in the lunar calendar of recent years. - Inventory: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Tuesday decreased by 60,000 tons to 490,000 tons, 20,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period of recent years. - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract dropped to 65 US dollars/barrel. The ethylene price in Northeast Asia remained flat at 705 US dollars/ton week - on - week, and that in Southeast Asia remained flat at 685 US dollars/ton week - on - week. [4]