基础化工/塑料 万凯新材（301216.SZ） rPET、草酸项目取得新进展，打造多元业绩增长点 2025 年 12 月 03 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/12/2 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 18.20 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 21.99/9.37 | | 总市值(亿元) | 105.59 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 99.79 | | 总股本(亿股) | 5.80 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 5.48 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 205.0 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -30% 0% 30% 60% 90% 120% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 万凯新材 沪深300 相关研究报告 《Q3 业绩同环比增长，反内卷及新材 料布局打开成长空间 —公司信息更 新报告》-2025.10.29 《公司盈利拐点确立，多元增长极打 开成长空间—公司信息更新报告》 -2025.8.28 《聚酯瓶片主业底部向上，多元增长 极共塑未来 —公司首次覆盖报告》 -2025.8.21 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 1 / 4 ...

Group 1 - In the first eight months of 2025, the plastic production in Jilin Province reached 634,000 tons, a decrease of 36.2% compared to the same period in 2024, with a growth rate 34.6 percentage points lower than 2024 and 47.8 percentage points lower than the national average [1] - The total plastic production in Jilin accounted for 0.7% of the national output of 97,073,062.5 tons during the same period [1] - In August 2025, Jilin's plastic production was 75,000 tons, down 37.1% year-on-year, with a growth rate 12.0 percentage points lower than 2024 and 49.9 percentage points lower than the national average [2] Group 2 - The August 2025 production represented 0.6% of the national output of 12,657,053.7 tons for that month [2] - The term "primary form plastic" was previously known as plastic resin and copolymer before 2004 [6] - Since 2011, the threshold for large-scale industrial enterprises in China has been raised from an annual main business income of 5 million yuan to 20 million yuan [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views The report provides daily observations on the plastic L and PP markets, including market conditions, important news, logical analyses, and trading strategies. Market conditions show fluctuations in contract prices and spot market prices for both L and PP. Important news covers various corporate developments, such as production expansions, acquisitions, and strategic partnerships. Logical analyses consider multiple factors like domestic and international economic indicators, production and inventory data, and their impacts on the polyolefin market. Trading strategies include suggestions on holding, buying, or selling L and PP contracts, as well as options for arbitrage and options trading [1][2][5]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - **L Plastic**: Contract prices fluctuated, with some days showing increases and others decreases. LLDPE market prices also varied, with fluctuations in different regions and ranges from 10 - 110 yuan/ton. Market sentiment was often affected by factors such as futures trends, factory price adjustments, and downstream demand. For example, on 25 - 12 - 03, L2601 contract closed at 6817 points, down 14 points or - 0.20%, and LLDPE market prices partially declined [1]. - **PP Polypropylene**: Contract prices also had ups and downs. PP market prices showed narrow - range fluctuations, with some days having slight increases or decreases. The market was influenced by factors like futures performance, factory price changes, and downstream procurement behavior. For instance, on 25 - 12 - 03, PP2601 contract closed at 6398 points, down 12 points or - 0.19%, and the domestic PP market prices had a narrow - range fluctuation [1]. Important News - **Corporate Developments**: Many companies announced significant events, such as齐翔腾达's plan to extend its industrial chain in the MMA and PMMA fields,科思创's acquisition by XRG, and万华绿能's establishment in the energy sector. These events could potentially impact the supply and demand of related products in the market [1][21][40]. - **Industry - wide Information**: Information about the global and domestic chemical industries was also reported, including the performance of the基础化工板块, the development of the global特种建筑化学品 market, and the status of China's chemical industry in terms of production and technology [37][18][60]. Logical Analysis - **Economic Indicators**: Various economic indicators were considered, such as domestic automobile sales, manufacturing PMI, global stock market value, and currency - related indices. These indicators had different impacts on the polyolefin market, either positive or negative. For example, a decline in domestic automobile sales index was negative for polyolefin prices [2]. - **Production and Inventory Data**: Data on PE and PP production capacity utilization, registered warehouse receipts, and inventory levels were analyzed. Increases or decreases in production capacity utilization and inventory changes could affect market supply and demand relationships. For instance, an increase in PE production capacity utilization might lead to an increase in supply [10]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Suggestions included holding long or short positions in L and PP contracts, with specific stop - loss points recommended. For example, on some days, it was recommended to hold long positions in L主力 01 contract and set stop - loss at a certain point [2]. - **Arbitrage**: There were also suggestions for arbitrage trading, such as holding positions in specific contract combinations and setting stop - loss levels [2]. - **Options Trading**: In most cases, the report recommended a wait - and - see approach for options trading [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - PP downstream demand is in the late peak season, with limited follow - up of orders. The supply has new capacity put into operation and an increase in maintenance devices. The cost side has low - level fluctuations in oil prices. The overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and the short - term upward space of PP is limited [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - PP downstream start - up rate rose 0.26 percentage points to 53.83% week - on - week, at a low level in the same period over the years. The start - up rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawing materials, decreased 0.14 percentage points to 44.1%, and orders were flat week - on - week, slightly lower than last year [1][4] - On December 2, new maintenance devices were added, and the start - up rate of PP enterprises dropped to about 81%, at a moderately low level. The production ratio of standard drawing materials rose to about 28.5% [1][4] - At the beginning of the month, petrochemical inventory accumulated significantly and is now at a high level in the same period in recent years. The cost side has low - level fluctuations in oil prices, and the new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year of Guangxi Petrochemical of CNPC was put into operation in mid - October [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission's meeting on price competition gave some boost to bulk commodities, but the overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remained unchanged, and the short - term upward space of PP was limited [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1 Futures - The PP2601 contract decreased positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6391 yuan/ton, the highest was 6426 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6410 yuan/ton, with a gain of 0.08%. The position decreased by 19,931 lots to 469,013 lots [2] 3.2.2 Spot - The spot prices of PP in various regions showed mixed trends. The drawing materials were reported at 6150 - 6480 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 2, new maintenance devices were added, and the start - up rate of PP enterprises dropped to about 81%, at a moderately low level [1][4] - Demand: As of the week of November 28, the downstream start - up rate of PP rose 0.26 percentage points to 53.83% week - on - week, at a low level in the same period over the years. The start - up rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawing materials, decreased 0.14 percentage points to 44.1%, and orders were flat week - on - week, slightly lower than last year [1][4] - Inventory: On Tuesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 35,000 tons to 735,000 tons week - on - week, 75,000 tons higher than the same period last year, at a high level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw materials: Brent crude oil contract 02 fluctuated around $63/barrel, and China CFR propylene price rose by $15/ton week - on - week to $750/ton [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - PVC is expected to move in a range. Although there are some positive factors such as the termination of India's BIS policy on PVC and the meeting on price competition standards, the recent upside space is limited due to factors like high inventory, upcoming traditional demand off - season, and falling quotes from China Taiwan's Formosa Plastics [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Upstream calcium carbide prices in the northwest region are stable. PVC production capacity utilization increased by 1.39 percentage points to 80.22% and remains at a relatively high level in recent years. Downstream PVC production capacity utilization is basically stable. India's termination of the BIS policy on PVC eases concerns about China's exports to India, and the anti - dumping tax is likely to be cancelled. However, Formosa Plastics' December quotes fell by 30 - 60 dollars/ton, and last week's export orders decreased. Social inventory increased slightly and remains high. The real estate market is still in adjustment, and the improvement needs time. The meeting on price competition standards gives some boost to commodities, but factors like the end of maintenance at some enterprises, high futures warehouse receipts, and the upcoming demand off - season limit the upside space [1] Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2601 contract decreased in positions and moved in a range, with a low of 4544 yuan/ton, a high of 4576 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 4575 yuan/ton, up 0.31% and above the 20 - day moving average. The position volume decreased by 47,480 lots to 1,024,038 lots [2] - On December 2, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China rose to 4500 yuan/ton, the V2601 contract's futures closing price was 4489 yuan/ton, the basis was - 75 yuan/ton, weakening by 3 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a relatively low - neutral level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, the operation of some plants such as Henan Lianchuang and Shaanxi Jintai improved, and the PVC production capacity utilization increased by 1.39 percentage points to 80.22%. New production capacities including Wanhua Chemical, Tianjin Bohua, Qingdao Gulf, Gansu Yaowang, and Jiaxing Jiahua are in production or trial - run at different loads [4] - On the demand side, the real estate market is still in adjustment. From January to October 2025, national real estate development investment was 735.63 billion yuan, down 14.7% year - on - year; the sales area of commercial housing was 719.82 million square meters, down 6.8% year - on - year; the new construction area of houses was 490.61 million square meters, down 19.8% year - on - year; and the completed area of houses was 348.61 million square meters, down 16.9% year - on - year. As of the week ending November 30, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 18.17% week - on - week but is still near the lowest level in recent years [5] - In terms of inventory, as of the week ending November 27, PVC social inventory increased by 0.99% week - on - week to 1.0428 million tons, 23.44% higher than the same period last year, and the inventory remains high [6]

研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 塑料产业日报 2025-12-02 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6831 | 28 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6831 | 28 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6886 | 23 9月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6931 | 39 | | | 成交量(日,手) | 248435 | -56638 持仓量(日,手) | 407064 | -27318 | | | 1-5价差 | -55 | 5 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 486290 | -11223 | | | 期货前20名持仓:卖单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 580268 | -15819 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | -93978 | 4596 | | 现货市场 | LLDPE(7042 ...

Market Overview - The plastic sector experienced a decline of 0.34% on December 2, with Weike Technology leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3897.71, down 0.42%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13056.7, down 0.68% [1] Top Gainers in the Plastic Sector - Ningbo Color Master (301019) saw a closing price of 26.94, with an increase of 11.00% and a trading volume of 186,700 shares, totaling 479 million yuan [1] - Daoming Optics (002632) closed at 15.05, up 10.01%, with a trading volume of 70,100 shares, amounting to 106 million yuan [1] - Guofeng New Materials (000859) closed at 9.23, also up 10.01%, with a trading volume of 1,470,200 shares, totaling 1.321 billion yuan [1] Top Decliners in the Plastic Sector - Weike Technology (301196) closed at 75.49, down 4.32%, with a trading volume of 42,100 shares, totaling 321 million yuan [2] - Foshan Plastics (000973) closed at 13.02, down 3.84%, with a trading volume of 1,276,000 shares, amounting to 1.708 billion yuan [2] - Fula New Materials (605488) closed at 33.79, down 3.32%, with a trading volume of 91,400 shares, totaling 311 million yuan [2] Capital Flow in the Plastic Sector - The plastic sector experienced a net outflow of 134 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 42.5 million yuan [2][3] - Guofeng New Materials (000859) had a net inflow of 117 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 69.87 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Ningbo Color Master (301019) recorded a net inflow of 41.51 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 53.33 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Supply Side - The supply side is expected to remain loose, with limited maintenance scheduled in December, leading to an increase in total supply [1][2] - New capacities from Exxon, Zhejiang Petrochemical, and Yulong Petrochemical totaling 1.3 million tons are coming online, contributing to supply pressure [2] - Overall production is projected to be 684,000 tons in the next period, a slight decrease of 0.08 million tons from the current period [2] Demand Side - Demand is weakening as the northern greenhouse film demand is nearing its end, and southern greenhouse production is limited with few new orders [3] - The packaging film sector is experiencing slow follow-up orders after previous completions, with most factories already having stock, leading to a bearish market sentiment [3] Profit Side - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate downward, further weakening cost support, while oil-based costs are anticipated to decline [4] - Coal-based costs remain stable, but natural gas prices are rising, increasing PDH production costs [4] Valuation - The supply side remains loose, with minimal changes in cost dynamics and weakening demand, resulting in low absolute prices [5]

Core Viewpoint - Dongcai Technology's stock price has shown significant growth this year, with a year-to-date increase of 165.19%, indicating strong market performance and investor interest [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Dongcai Technology achieved a revenue of 3.803 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.18% [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period was 283 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.80% [2]. Stock Market Activity - As of December 2, Dongcai Technology's stock price was 19.73 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 651 million yuan and a turnover rate of 3.20% [1]. - The company has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" three times this year, with the most recent appearance on September 12 [1]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 52,300, up by 60.68% from the previous period [2]. - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder decreased by 29.34% to 19,464 shares [2]. Dividend Distribution - Dongcai Technology has distributed a total of 1.107 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 317 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited was the fifth largest circulating shareholder, holding 19.942 million shares, an increase of 6.6923 million shares from the previous period [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce of China has initiated a final review investigation of anti-dumping measures on imported polyphenylene sulfide (PPS) from Japan, the United States, South Korea, and Malaysia, following a request from Zhejiang Xinheng Special Materials Co., Ltd. [2] Group 1: Anti-Dumping Measures - The Ministry of Commerce announced the initiation of a final review investigation on November 30, 2025, regarding anti-dumping measures applicable to imported PPS from Japan, the United States, South Korea, and Malaysia [2]. - During the investigation period, the anti-dumping duties will continue to be levied according to the rates specified in previous announcements from 2020, 2021, and 2022 [2]. - The anti-dumping tax rates for various companies are as follows: - Japan: 26.9% to 69.1% - United States: 214.1% to 220.9% - South Korea: 26.4% to 32.7% - Malaysia: 40.5% [4] Group 2: Product Description and Applications - Polyphenylene sulfide (PPS) is a high-performance thermoplastic resin characterized by a molecular chain containing phenyl sulfide, known for its excellent properties such as high-temperature resistance, corrosion resistance, radiation resistance, flame retardancy, and electrical insulation [2]. - PPS is widely used in various industries, including textiles, automotive, electronics, machinery, petroleum, chemical, and aerospace [3].