1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for LLDPE and PP are both "Oscillation" [3][4] 2. Core Views - LLDPE is experiencing a low - level recovery, but the rebound is limited. Short - term market trends lack obvious driving forces and are expected to be mainly oscillatory [2][3] - PP has insufficient driving forces, and the rebound is also limited. The short - term market is expected to oscillate [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 LLDPE Analysis Supply - This week, China's polyethylene production totaled 686,800 tons, a 0.52% increase from last week. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene producers was 83.67%, a 0.43 - percentage - point increase from the previous period [3] Demand - The average operating rate of LLDPE/LDPE downstream products in China decreased by 0.2% from the previous period. The overall operating rate of agricultural film decreased by 1.1%, while the operating rate of PE packaging film increased by 0.6%. In November, China's polyethylene imports were 1.0622 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.93% and a month - on - month increase of 5.04% [3] Inventory - The sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 395,400 tons, a 24,700 - ton increase from the previous period, a 6.66% month - on - month increase. The inventory of polyethylene social sample warehouses was 475,100 tons, a 3,600 - ton increase from the previous period, a 0.77% month - on - month increase and a 19.11% year - on - year increase [3] Basis - The current basis of the main contract is around 160, with the futures price at a discount [3] Profit - The costs of coal - to - and ethane - to - polyethylene production increased by 59 yuan/ton and 248 yuan/ton respectively compared to the previous period. The costs of oil - to - and ethylene - to - polyethylene production decreased by 5 yuan/ton and 129 yuan/ton respectively. The cost of methanol - to - polyethylene production remained the same as last week [3] Valuation - The absolute spot price is low, and the main contract is at a discount [3] Macro - Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, posing a risk of rising international oil prices. The macro sentiment is positive, and the RMB has appreciated [3] 3.2 PP Analysis Supply - This week, China's polypropylene production was 779,200 tons, a 13,400 - ton decrease (1.69% decline) from last week and a 38,700 - ton increase (5.23% increase) compared to the same period last year. The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene was 75.47%, a 1.27% month - on - month decrease [4] Demand - The average operating rate decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 52.60%. After New Year's Day, cold weather in northern China affected outdoor construction, leading to a decline in the demand for ton bags, woven bags, and outdoor pipe network construction. The CPP sample enterprise average operating rate decreased by 2.18% from last week [4] Inventory - The total commercial inventory of Chinese polypropylene was 743,500 tons, a 9,300 - ton increase from the previous period, a 1.26% month - on - month increase. The inventory of Chinese polypropylene producers was 467,700 tons, a 23,000 - ton decrease from the previous period, a 4.69% month - on - month decrease [4] Basis - The current basis of the main contract is around - 254, with the futures price at a premium [4] Profit - This week, the profits of oil - to -, coal - to -, methanol - to -, externally - sourced propylene - to -, and PDH - to - polypropylene production all recovered. The average weekly profit of Chinese polypropylene import samples was - 288.03 yuan/ton, a 55.30 - yuan increase from last week, a 16.11% month - on - month increase [4] Valuation - The absolute spot price is low, and the main contract is at a premium [4] Macro Policy - Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, posing a risk of rising international oil prices. The macro sentiment is positive, and the RMB has appreciated [4] 3.3 Main Weekly Data Changes Review - PP futures price increased from 6348 yuan/ton to 6514 yuan/ton, a 2.61% increase; PE futures price increased from 6472 yuan/ton to 6674 yuan/ton, a 3.12% increase [5] - PP production decreased by 12.21%; PE production increased by 0.52% [5] - PP spot price increased from 6140 yuan/ton to 6260 yuan/ton, a 1.95% increase; LLDPE spot price increased from 6310 yuan/ton to 6410 yuan/ton, a 1.58% increase [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Polyolefins are expected to have limited upward range and are likely to experience weak oscillations. Key factors to watch include downstream demand, the situation in Venezuela, and crude oil price fluctuations [8][9] - Plastics still face supply - demand contradictions and are expected to trade in a range [10] - Polypropylene (PP) faces significant upward pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [53] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Plastic 3.1.1 Weekly Market Review - On January 9, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6,674 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.12%. The average price of LDPE was 8,933.33 yuan/ton, up 2.88% from the previous week. The average price of HDPE was 7,022.50 yuan/ton, up 2.52%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 6,848.89 yuan/ton, up 3.37%. The LLDPE South China basis was 174.89 yuan/ton, down 0.94% week - on - week, and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 249 yuan/ton (- 47) [12] 3.1.2 Key Data Tracking - **Month - spreads**: On January 9, 2026, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 249 yuan/ton (- 47), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 41 yuan/ton (- 4), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 290 yuan/ton (+ 51) [17] - **Spot Prices**: Provided detailed spot price data for different varieties (HDPE, LDPE, LLDPE) in various regions, including minimum, maximum, and mainstream prices, as well as their price changes [20][21] - **Cost**: Last week, WTI crude oil closed at $58.78 per barrel, up $1.45 from the previous week, and Brent crude oil closed at $63.05 per barrel, up $2.25. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,070 yuan/ton (unchanged) [23] - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 472 yuan/ton, up 158 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the profit of coal - based PE was 34 yuan/ton, up 98 yuan/ton [28] - **Supply**: This week, the operating rate of Chinese polyethylene production was 83.67%, up 0.43 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly polyethylene output was 68.68 tons, up 0.51% week - on - week. The maintenance loss this week was 9.87 tons, down 0.36 tons from the previous week [34] - **2026 Production Plan**: Multiple companies have planned new production capacity in 2026, with a total planned capacity of 550 tons [37] - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many enterprises' polyethylene production lines have been shut down for maintenance, and some of the restart times are undetermined [38] - **Demand**: This week, the overall domestic agricultural film operating rate was 37.89%, down 1.06% from the previous week; the PE packaging film operating rate was 48.96%, up 0.55%, and the PE pipe operating rate was 29.50%, down 0.50% [40] - **Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 31.5%, with a 2% difference from the annual average. The production ratio of low - pressure film is significantly different from the annual average, currently accounting for 6.9%, with a 3% difference [44] - **Inventory**: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 48.48 tons, down 0.16 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33% [46] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 11,365 lots, an increase of 12 lots from the previous week [50] 3.2 PP 3.2.1 Weekly Market Review - On January 9, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6,514 yuan/ton, up 166 yuan/ton from the previous weekend, a week - on - week increase of 2.61% [54] 3.2.2 Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Prices**: Provided price data for PP granules, PP powder, and other related products on January 9, 2026, as well as their price changes compared with the previous day, week, month, and year [59] - **Basis**: On January 9, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Business Society was 6,376.67 yuan/ton (+ 3.35%). The PP basis was - 137 yuan/ton (+ 41), and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 40 yuan/ton (- 19) [61] - **Month - spreads**: On January 9, 2026, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 212 yuan/ton (- 54), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 49 yuan/ton (- 29), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 261 yuan/ton (+ 83) [69] - **Cost**: Same as the plastic cost data, WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil prices increased, and the anthracite price remained unchanged [73] - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 516.36 yuan/ton, up 110.86 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the profit of coal - based PP was - 428.77 yuan/ton, up 141.48 yuan/ton [78] - **Supply**: This week, the operating rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 75.47%, down 1.27 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly output of PP granules was 77.92 tons, down 1.69% week - on - week, and the weekly output of PP powder was 6.75 tons, down 2.88% [82] - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many PP production lines of enterprises have been shut down for maintenance, and some of the restart times are undetermined [86] - **Demand**: This week, the average downstream operating rate was 52.58% (- 0.18). The operating rate of plastic weaving was 42.92% (- 0.22%), the operating rate of BOPP was 63.24% (unchanged), the operating rate of injection molding was 58.04% (- 0.08%), and the operating rate of pipes was 38.13% (- 0.34%) [88] - **Import and Export Profits**: This week, the polypropylene import profit was - 349.72 US dollars/ton, down 19.02 US dollars/ton from the previous week, and the export profit was - 8.91 US dollars/ton, down 5.17 US dollars/ton [94] - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic polypropylene inventory was 46.77 tons (- 4.69%); the inventory of the two major state - owned oil companies decreased by 16.14% week - on - week, the inventory of traders increased by 15.52%, and the port inventory increased by 7.24% [96] - **Finished Product and Raw Material Inventory**: The finished product inventory of large - scale plastic weaving enterprises was 941.95 tons, down 2.15% week - on - week, and the BOPP raw material inventory was 10.64 days, up 2.11% [100] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 15,445 lots, unchanged from the previous week [104]

Core Viewpoint - Dazhongnan's stock price has shown a positive trend in early January 2025, with significant trading volume and a notable increase in net profit year-on-year despite a slight decline in revenue [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On January 12, Dazhongnan's stock rose by 2.33%, reaching 3.52 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 160 million CNY and a turnover rate of 2.46% [1]. - Year-to-date, the stock price has increased by 5.71%, with a 4.76% rise over the last five trading days and a 6.34% increase over the last 20 days, although it has decreased by 1.40% over the last 60 days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Dazhongnan reported a revenue of 939 million CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 3.83%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.06 million CNY, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 158.98% [2]. - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's A-share listing amount to 172 million CNY, with no dividends paid in the last three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of December 31, 2025, the number of shareholders for Dazhongnan was 108,300, a decrease of 3.42% from the previous period, with an average of 17,338 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 3.55% [2]. - The second-largest circulating shareholder is Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 14.65 million shares as a new shareholder [3].

Core Viewpoint - The European Plastics Association has announced that Rob Ingram, CEO of INEOS Olefins & Polymers Europe, will take over as the association's president starting January 1, 2026, focusing on promoting the circular economy within the industry [1] Group 1: Leadership Changes - Rob Ingram will succeed Benny Malmsten, Vice President and Head of Sustainability at Chevron Phillips Chemical [1] - The association has elected three vice presidents from Dow Chemical, Borealis, and Evonik Industries [1] Group 2: Industry Challenges - The European plastics industry is at a critical turning point, with unprecedented pressure on its competitiveness [1] - The market share of European plastic production has significantly declined from 22% in 2006 to an expected 12% by 2024, indicating a rapid and ongoing loss of competitiveness [1] Group 3: Strategic Goals - Ingram emphasizes the need for coordinated action across the entire value chain and urgent policy measures to support this key European strategic industry [1] - The association aims to achieve 65% circularity in plastic products and climate neutrality by 2050 under Ingram's leadership [1] - The member companies of the association account for 90% of the polymer production in the EU27, Norway, Switzerland, and the UK [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report This week, the 05 contract showed an upward trend, but it is expected to undergo a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week. This is due to the expected decrease in maintenance and a slight increase in production scheduling next week, while demand may continue to be sluggish, and overall inventory is at a high level [5][6][54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: This week, the 05 contract was on an upward trend. The opening price on Monday was 4,784 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 4,897 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.36% [5]. - **Supply Side**: In December 2025, PVC production was 2.137356 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.70%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 79.67%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. The output of carbide - based enterprises was 343,410 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.56%, and the output of ethylene - based enterprises was 144,360 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.92%. Supply pressure increased this week. Next week, it is expected that maintenance will decrease and production scheduling will increase slightly [5]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 44.02%, a month - on - month increase of 0.080 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 30.22%, a month - on - month increase of 0.439 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 35.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.20 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films was 66.43%, unchanged month - on - month, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 81.53%, a month - on - month increase of 0.780 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are not competitive. Current demand may continue to be sluggish [5]. - **Cost and Inventory**: The profit of carbide - based production was - 633.67 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 11.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene - based production was - 192.09 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 31.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,127.67 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in profit of 1.00%, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure. Factory inventory was 328,194 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.13%. Carbide - based factory inventory was 244,844 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.06%. Ethylene - based factory inventory was 83,350 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84%. Social inventory was 546,346 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.02%. The inventory days of production enterprises were 5.4 days, a month - on - month increase of 5.46%. Overall inventory is at a high level [6]. 3.2 PVC Futures Market - **Price and Volume Trends**: There are graphical displays of the price trends of the main contract, including opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and trading volume, as well as the moving averages of 5, 10, 20, 60, and 120 periods. There are also displays of the position trends of the top 5 and top 20 seats [12]. - **Basis and Spread Analysis**: There are graphical displays of the basis trends and the spread analysis of the main contract [9][15]. 3.3 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Carbide - Based Raw Materials**: Graphical displays are provided for the price, cost - profit, and operating rate of semi - coke, as well as the price, cost - profit, operating rate, production, and maintenance loss of calcium carbide. There are also displays for the price, production of liquid chlorine and raw salt, and the price, cost - profit, operating rate, production, and inventory of caustic soda [17][21][23][25]. - **Supply Trends**: Graphical displays are provided for the capacity utilization rates of carbide - based and ethylene - based production, the production and maintenance volume of PVC, and the daily production of PVC [29][31]. - **Demand Trends**: Graphical displays are provided for the sales volume of PVC traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rates of PVC, as well as the investment in real estate, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area of housing. There are also displays for the social financing scale increment, M2 increment, new special bonds of local governments, and infrastructure investment year - on - year [34][36][40]. - **Inventory Situation**: Graphical displays are provided for the exchange warehouse receipts, carbide - based and ethylene - based factory inventories, social inventory, and inventory days of production enterprises [44]. - **Ethylene - Based Situation**: Graphical displays are provided for the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC exports, and the FOB price difference of ethylene - based products and the import price difference of vinyl chloride [46]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The monthly supply - demand trends of PVC from November 2024 to December 2025 are presented, including import, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, export, and supply - demand differences [50]. 3.4 Technical Analysis This week, the main 05 contract showed an upward trend, and it is expected to undergo a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week [54].

1月9日，财政部、税务总局联合发布《关于调整光伏等产品出口退税政策的公告》，产品清单明确将 PVC粉、未塑化PVC、已塑化PVC纳入调整范围，核心影响条款关乎PVC出口：自2026年4月1日起，取 消PVC粉增值税出口退税。 目前，该品类的出口退税率为13%。该政策对PVC市场的深远影响，正引发产业界与资本市场的广泛关 注。 卓创资讯（301299）分析师李敏表示，这一政策将直接抬升出口成本。以当前国内PVC粉价格4500元/ 吨计算，退税取消后出口成本将增加约75美元/吨。 从出口基本面看，近年来中国PVC粉出口已成为弥补国内需求不足的重要支撑。数据显示，2024年出口 总量达261.7万吨，2025年预计突破380万吨，出口量持续攀升的背后，是全球需求增加与国内供大于求 格局的双重推动。 "即便抢出口带动价格短期反弹，大概率也是昙花一现。"阙云云坦言。 市场曾出现猜测，美国PVC货源或借机替代中国产品，填补海外需求缺口。但这一逻辑被基本面数据否 定。 阙云云介绍，美国PVC出口存在明确的区域锁定性：墨西哥和加拿大进口依存度超60%，且其中90%的 进口量来自美国，这意味着美国货源的核心市场是北美地区。"若 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the chemical industry [2][3] Core Insights - The macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry indicates a stable increase in oil demand due to global economic recovery and tariff adjustments, with Brent oil prices expected to remain in the range of $55-70 per barrel [2][3] - The report highlights the potential for price increases in the organic silicon sector, driven by supply constraints and rising demand ahead of the Lunar New Year [2] - The report suggests focusing on key sectors such as industrial silicon, PVC, and phosphorus, as well as companies like Xinjiang Tianye and Xingfa Group, which are expected to benefit from differentiated electricity pricing policies in Shaanxi Province [2][3] Summary by Sections Chemical Macro Outlook - Oil supply is tightening due to OPEC+ production delays and peak shale oil output, while demand is stabilizing with an expected increase in oil prices [3] - Coal prices are expected to stabilize at a low level, alleviating pressure on downstream industries [3] - The U.S. is likely to accelerate natural gas export facility construction, potentially lowering import costs [2][3] Price Trends - Brent crude oil prices increased by 3.7% to $63.02 per barrel, while WTI prices rose by 2.7% to $58.84 per barrel [9] - The PPI for all industrial products decreased by 1.9% year-on-year but increased by 0.2% month-on-month, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity [5] Sector Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the textile chain, agricultural chemicals, export-related chemical products, and companies benefiting from "de-involution" policies [2] - Specific companies to watch include: - For textiles: Lu Xi Chemical, Tongkun Co., and Hengli Petrochemical - For agricultural chemicals: Hualu Hengsheng and Baofeng Energy - For export-related chemicals: Juhua Co. and Wanhu Chemical [2][15] Key Company Valuations - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, indicating their market capitalizations and projected earnings [15][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The polyolefin market maintains a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Production profits are poor, but the cost side provides support. The output is significantly higher than the same period last year, leading to significant pressure on the supply side. The overall downstream operating rate remains at a relatively low level, and due to the seasonal off - peak season, demand remains weak. Technically, with positive macro - sentiment, the polyolefin prices may continue to rise [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Overview - **Inventory**: China's polyethylene production enterprise sample inventory is expected to be around 400,000 tons and may increase. China's polypropylene production enterprise inventory is expected to be around 450,000 tons and may decrease as spot offers rise and some downstream rigid purchases occur [9]. - **Supply**: Newly planned maintenance of plants such as Guangdong Petrochemical and Lanzhou Petrochemical, along with the non - restart of previously maintained plants, is expected to reduce the next - period total polyethylene output to 682,100 tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons from the current period. The estimated total polypropylene output is 774,000 tons, showing a narrow decrease and continuing the downward trend [9]. - **Demand**: The overall operating rate of PE downstream industries has slightly increased, with some rigid consumption in food composite films, daily chemical packaging bags, and barrier films. After the festival, the market consumes with orders, and there may be an increase in the operating rate in some fields in the middle of the month considering downstream inventory preparation. For polypropylene products, orders in various industries have decreased, causing the average industry operating rate to decline [9]. - **Industrial Chain Profits**: The losses of oil - based PE and PP, ethylene - based PE, and propylene - based PP have narrowed, while the loss of PDH - based PP remains large, and the cost side provides support [9]. 3.2 Views and Strategies - **View**: The polyolefin market maintains a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. With positive macro - sentiment, the price center of polyolefins may continue to move up [11]. - **Futures and Options Strategies**: Go long with a light position and buy call options [11]. 3.3 PP Single - side Strategy - **Strategy**: Short PP. - **Price and Trend**: The price has rebounded from the bottom, reaching 6,484 as of January 8th. - **Logic**: The new PP production capacity is large, and downstream demand is weak, so the medium - to - long - term trend of PP is relatively weak. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see for now [14]. 3.4 Supply - side - **PE Output**: There are data on PE weekly output, weekly operating rate, and maintenance loss volume. Plastic production capacity has maintained high - speed growth in the past five years, with an average annual capacity growth rate of 12%. In 2025, the new capacity was 5.43 million tons, and the capacity base increased to 41.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. In 2026, the planned PE production capacity to be put into operation is 9.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.45%, but the actual production volume may be about half considering the poor production profits [70][91][99]. - **PP Output**: There are data on PP weekly output, weekly operating rate, and maintenance loss volume. PP production capacity has maintained high - speed growth in the past five years, with an average annual capacity growth rate of 11%. In 2025, China's PP realized production capacity was about 4.555 million tons, and the capacity base increased to 49.165 million tons, a 10.2% increase from 2024. In 2026, the planned PP production capacity to be put into operation is 9.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.1%, and the actual production volume may be about half considering the poor production profits [77][97][101]. - **Imports**: There are data on PE and PP import volumes [84]. 3.5 Demand - side - **Downstream Operating Rates**: There are data on the operating rates of PE and PP downstream industries, including sub - industries such as agricultural film, packaging film, plastic weaving, and BOPP [106]. - **Exports**: There are data on PE and PP export volumes [127]. - **Plastic Products**: There are data on plastic product output, rubber and plastic products industry inventory, automobile and home appliance production year - on - year, home appliance export volume, domestic automobile production, and Chinese automobile exports [129].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of PVC remains weak. The cancellation of export tax rebates will directly increase PVC export costs, but there may be a rush to export before April 1st. There is certain negative sentiment in the short - term, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the impact on supply due to intensified competition among upstream enterprises [8]. - It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading. For the 2605 contract, the reference range is 4700 - 4900, and investors can consider the 3 - 5 positive spread arbitrage opportunity [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PVC Contract Spreads - The 1 - 5 spread of PVC contracts is stable and higher than the same period last year. The 5 - 9 spread is also stable compared to the previous period and higher year - on - year. The overall futures monthly spread structure maintains a contango pattern, with expectations stronger than reality [18]. - The 9 - 1 spread is stable compared to the previous period and lower year - on - year. The basis of the main contract rebounds slightly compared to the previous period but is weaker year - on - year [19]. 3.2 Supply End - In 2025, the new PVC production capacity was 2.2 million tons, with a growth rate close to 8%, and the effective production capacity exceeded 29 million tons. In 2026, only Zhejiang Jiahua's 300,000 - ton new production capacity is planned, and the expansion of PVC production capacity is coming to an end. Last week, PVC output was 487,900 tons, a 0.83% increase from the previous week and a 4.03% increase year - on - year, mainly due to the increased load of some devices [25]. - As of now, the effective production capacity of calcium carbide - based PVC is 20.25 million tons, accounting for about 69.8%. Last week, the output was 343,400 tons, a 1.54% increase from the previous week and the same as the same period last year [28]. - As of now, the effective production capacity of ethylene - based PVC is 8.77 million tons, accounting for about 30.2%. Last week, the output was 144,500 tons, a 0.82% decrease from the previous week and a 14.96% increase year - on - year [32]. - Last week, the upstream PVC operating rate was 79.67%, a 1.04 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 1.33 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year, at a neutral level in the same period. The maintenance loss was 124,500 tons [36]. - Last week, the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 79.71%, a 0.35 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 1.41 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year, at a neutral level in the same period. The operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 79.56%, a 0.27 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 1.12 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year, at a slightly lower - than - neutral level in the same period [39]. - From January to November 2025, the cumulative PVC import volume was 202,100 tons, a 1.46% increase year - on - year. From January to November, the import volume of plastics and their products in China was 17.63 million tons, a 6.32% decrease year - on - year [42]. 3.3 Demand End - From January to November 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption of PVC was 1.901 million tons, a 0.99% decrease year - on - year. Last week, the PVC production and sales rate was 186%, an 18 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 50 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [49]. - Last week, the comprehensive operating rate of downstream PVC products remained at a low level. This is mainly due to the slowdown of construction in winter, the suspension of construction sites in the north, the entry of municipal and infrastructure project demand into the seasonal off - season, and the decrease in demand for pipes due to the sluggish real estate market [53]. - From January to November 2025, the cumulative export volume of PVC powder was 3.51 million tons, a 47% increase year - on - year. The main export destinations were India, Vietnam, Uzbekistan, etc. India cancelled the BIS certification policy for PVC imports in November, and the anti - dumping duty is expected to end, which is favorable for domestic PVC exports in the long run [61]. - From January to November 2025, the cumulative export volume of Chinese PVC flooring materials was 3.7852 million tons, an 11.02% decrease year - on - year. The main destinations were Europe and the United States. Affected by trade frictions and weak external demand, the export of products continued to shrink [63]. 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the domestic PVC social inventory (41 companies) was 1.1141 million tons, a 3.47% increase from the previous week and a 44.71% increase year - on - year. The enterprise inventory was 328,200 tons, a 6.14% increase from the previous week and a 27.36% increase year - on - year. Both social and enterprise inventories increased [69][76]. 3.5 Valuation - Last week, the price of semi - coke was stable compared to the previous period and at the lowest level in the same period over the years. The price of calcium carbide rebounded slightly compared to the previous period, with the mainstream price in Wuhai area reported at 2,400 yuan/ton [80]. - Last week, the price of ethylene was weakly stable and at the lowest level in the same period over the years. The price of vinyl chloride was weakly stable compared to the previous period and at the lowest level in the same period over the years [84]. - The price of liquid caustic soda decreased slightly compared to the previous period and was at the lowest level in the same period over the years. The price of liquid chlorine first increased and then decreased, and was higher year - on - year [88]. - Last week, the loss of externally purchased calcium carbide - based PVC production decreased slightly but was still at a low level in the same period. The loss of ethylene - based PVC also decreased, and the year - on - year loss decreased [91]. - Last week, the production profit of Shandong chlor - alkali increased slightly compared to the previous period but decreased year - on - year [95].

截至2026年1月9日收盘，聚石化学（688669）报收于27.39元，较上周的23.24元上涨17.86%。本周，聚 石化学1月9日盘中最高价报27.49元。1月6日盘中最低价报22.81元。聚石化学当前最新总市值33.23亿 元，在塑料板块市值排名58/72，在两市A股市值排名4418/5182。 关于收到《行政处罚事先告知书》的公告 广东聚石化学股份有限公司于2026年1月9日收到中国证监会广东监管局下发的《行政处罚事先告知 书》，因公司涉嫌通过虚假贸易业务虚增收入、成本和利润，导致2023年半年度报告存在虚假记载。公 司拟被处以警告并罚款240万元，相关责任人陈钢、刘鹏辉、伍洋、徐建军也被处以警告及相应罚款。 公司已对相关财务数据进行调整，目前经营正常，未触及退市或其他风险警示情形。 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 公司公告汇总：因虚假贸易虚增收入，聚石化学收证监会《行政处罚事先告知书》 公司公告汇总：周侃减持37,000股，伍洋未实施减持，减持计划期满结束 公司公告汇总 董事、高级管理人员减持股份结果公告 ...