Core Viewpoint - The opening of the Nantong Jiming International Plastic City marks a significant development in the Hai'an commercial logistics park, transitioning from futures delivery to spot trading, and aims to become a leading plastic trading market in East China [3][4]. Group 1: Project Overview - The total investment for the Jiming International Plastic City is 2 billion yuan, covering a planned area of 194 acres, and has attracted over 100 quality trading companies [3]. - The project aims to create a one-stop platform integrating trading display, warehousing, and financial services, filling gaps in the regional industrial chain and promoting the development of downstream industries such as injection molding and molds [3][4]. Group 2: Strategic Importance - The plastic city is positioned as the first physical spot market for bulk production materials in Hai'an, which is expected to effectively reduce raw material costs for key local industries such as new materials and chemical fibers [3][4]. - Hai'an's commercial logistics park is recognized as Jiangsu's only provincial-level professional logistics park, focusing on building a national logistics hub and enhancing multi-modal transport and bonded logistics [3][4]. Group 3: Future Development Plans - The city government emphasizes the importance of platform operation, management, and service to meet comprehensive enterprise needs and to create a significant plastic industry cluster [4]. - Future initiatives include optimizing infrastructure for smart logistics and warehousing, and promoting the integration of futures and spot trading with manufacturing [4][6]. Group 4: Founder's Insights - The founder of the plastic city attributes its establishment in Hai'an to the region's advantageous transportation, excellent business environment, and innovative city spirit [6]. - The project aims to leverage technology to empower traditional industries and introduce advanced models such as smart logistics and circular economy [6].

供应端：压力逐渐增加 2025年是近几年PE产能扩张压力最大的一年，也是此轮产能扩张周期的最后一年。上半年PE产能扩张 压力较小，除了一季度多套新装置集中投产之外，二季度几无新装置投产。不过，下半年PE仍将面临 吉林石化、裕龙石化、湛江巴斯夫等多套新装置投产压力，预计届时总产能将突破4000万吨/年。 成本端：利润存在压缩空间 今年PE利润情况较去年明显改善，其中煤制PE利润丰厚，一度达到2000元/吨，虽然近期有所回落，但 是依然在1500元/吨附近。油制PE一改近几年长期亏损的状态，基本扭亏为盈。综合来看，目前PE处于 近五年利润最好的状态，但考虑到PE曾经长期处于亏损状态，并且今年产能扩张压力较大，后期随着 供应压力陆续兑现，利润也存在压缩空间。 进出口：结构或逐渐改变 目前PE进出口格局变化不大，依然是净进口状态。其中，每月进口量在120万吨左右，每月出口量在5 万～10万吨。随着PE新装置陆续投产，国内供应将逐渐转向过剩，届时PE进出口格局或逐渐改变。作 为对比，PP曾经每月净进口30万吨左右，但是随着产能扩张逐渐兑现，进口大幅减少，出口明显增 加。目前PP进口和出口基本抵消，后期PE也有望像PP一 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index has recently surpassed the annual high set on March 18, 2025, and is approaching the high from October 8, 2024, indicating a significant market movement [1] - There is a noticeable divergence among various sectors, with banking, agriculture, personal care, military, chemical, transportation, and petrochemical industries showing a higher proportion of stocks exceeding their March 18, 2025 closing prices [1] - Conversely, sectors such as steel, electronics, home appliances, telecommunications, computers, and electrical equipment have a lower proportion of stocks exceeding their March 18, 2025 levels [1] Group 2 - In the secondary industry analysis, financial (banking, insurance, diversified finance), military (naval equipment, ground weaponry), agriculture (animal health, agricultural products, planting, feed), precious metals, personal care products, and chemical pharmaceuticals show a higher proportion of stocks exceeding their March 18, 2025 closing prices [4] - Sectors like home appliances, electrical equipment, TMT (television broadcasting, communication services, consumer electronics, semiconductors, optical electronics), general steel, and machinery (engineering machinery, automation equipment) have a lower proportion of stocks exceeding their March 18, 2025 levels [4] - Comparing to the October 8, 2024 closing prices, banking, motorcycles, military (ground weaponry, aerospace equipment), chemicals (plastics, non-metallic materials), and new consumption (entertainment products, personal care products, retail, accessories) show a higher proportion of stocks exceeding their previous levels [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Macro and Stock Index - Domestic economic data shows marginal improvement, and six departments including the central bank have issued guidelines to support consumption, with a 500 - billion - yuan re - loan for service consumption and elderly care, promoting the entry of long - term funds into the market. The international Middle - East situation is short - term eased but still has the risk of recurrence. IC/IM maintains a deep discount. Short - sellers should choose the near - month contract to avoid basis fluctuations in the far - month contract, while long - term investors can focus on basis convergence opportunities. The long - IM and short - IH arbitrage portfolio may still have room, but beware of the callback pressure of small - cap stocks at high levels [2]. Crude Oil - The conflict between Israel and Iran has eased, and the risk premium of crude oil has shrunk significantly. The price has fallen sharply and is seeking support at the 500 - yuan/barrel level of the SC main contract. WTI main contract should focus on the support around $65/barrel [3]. Gold - Fed Chairman Powell reiterated "not in a hurry to cut interest rates", but Trump's dissatisfaction has led to concerns about the Fed's policy continuity and independence. The weakening dollar supports gold, while the easing of the Middle - East situation weakens its short - term safe - haven demand. The current gold price is in a shock range, and attention should be paid to the US GDP and PCE data [4][5]. Silver - The internal policy divergence of the Fed has intensified, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts has decreased, suppressing the short - term upward movement of precious metals. The demand growth in key areas of silver is slowing down, but it may have room for a supplementary rise compared with gold. Pay attention to the support at $34.8 - 35.0/ounce [6]. Chemicals - PTA and ethylene glycol may fluctuate in the short term. PVC, PP, and plastics still fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term due to weak fundamentals. Soda ash is recommended to be treated with a bottom - shock idea, and glass is recommended to be treated with an interval - shock idea [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15]. Agricultural Products - Corn is in an upward channel but may face short - term callback pressure, and attention should be paid to the support at 2350 yuan/ton. Peanuts are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Cotton's upside space is limited. Bean II and soybean meal may test the platform support in the short term. Soybean oil may fluctuate in the short term. Hogs may fluctuate, and eggs may oscillate at a low level [19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28]. Metals - Shanghai copper is waiting for new signals. Shanghai aluminum can be operated in the short term by aggressive investors or waited by conservative investors. Alumina shows a weak adjustment trend. Cast aluminum alloy may fluctuate in the short term. Lithium carbonate may continue to be under pressure, and industrial silicon and polysilicon may oscillate at the bottom [29][30][31][32][33][34]. Black Metals - Stainless steel may fluctuate weakly at a low level. Rebar and hot - rolled coils can be considered to go long lightly at low levels. Iron ore may oscillate in the short term, and coal may also oscillate in the short term [35][36][37][38][39]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Macro and Stock Index - **Macro Situation**: Domestic economic data improves marginally, and policies support consumption and long - term funds entry. Internationally, the Middle - East situation is unstable [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Different stock index futures have different trading volumes, basis rates, and capital flows. The style differentiation continues [2]. - **Reference Views**: Provide suggestions for short - sellers, long - term investors, and arbitrageurs, and remind of risks [2]. Crude Oil - **Macro and Geopolitical Situation**: The conflict between Israel and Iran eases, and the risk premium of crude oil shrinks [3]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical factors lead to price fluctuations, and the price is sensitive to external factors. The summer peak season supports the price to some extent [3]. - **Reference Views**: Focus on the support level of WTI [3]. Gold - **Macro and Geopolitical Situation**: Powell's statement and Trump's dissatisfaction affect the dollar and gold. The easing of the Middle - East situation weakens the safe - haven demand for gold [4]. - **Market Analysis**: Gold price is supported by the weak dollar and interest - rate cut expectations, and shows a short - term bearish signal [4][5]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Focus on key economic data and the support level of gold [5]. Silver - **Market Price**: The price of spot silver shows a narrow - range shock [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Policy divergence in the Fed, slowing demand growth in key areas, and geopolitical factors affect silver price [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Silver may have room for a supplementary rise, and pay attention to the support level [6]. Chemicals PTA and Ethylene Glycol - **Spot Information**: The prices of PTA and ethylene glycol in East China are the same, with a decline and a certain basis [7][8]. - **Market Analysis**: Middle - East geopolitical easing affects the cost. There are device overhauls and restarts, and the demand is weak [7][8]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval fluctuation [7][8]. PVC - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of PVC are stable [9]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization rate changes, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory decreases [9]. - **Reference Views**: Fluctuate with market sentiment due to weak fundamentals [9]. PP - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions of PP decline [10]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization rate rises, demand decreases, and inventory increases [10]. - **Reference Views**: Fluctuate with market sentiment due to weak fundamentals [10][11]. Plastics - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions of plastics have different trends [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization rate decreases slightly, demand has a small change, and inventory decreases [12]. - **Reference Views**: Fluctuate with market sentiment due to weak fundamentals [12]. Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are stable [13]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases slightly, inventory increases, and demand is average [13]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term bottom - shock [13][14]. Glass - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are stable [15]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply decreases slightly, inventory decreases slightly, and demand is weak [15]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [15]. Rubber - **Market Price**: The prices of different types of rubber and raw materials are provided [16]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by crude oil and trade policies, the supply is loose, and the demand is affected by the trade war [16]. - **Reference Views**: Bottom - shock and focus on downstream开工率 [16][17]. Methanol - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions change [18]. - **Market Analysis**: Futures price rises, port inventory increases, supply increases, and demand has different trends [18]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term shock and focus on Iranian supply and domestic inventory [18]. Agricultural Products Corn - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are provided [19]. - **Market Analysis**: The USDA report has limited support, and the domestic market is affected by supply and demand factors [20]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term callback and focus on the support level [20]. Peanuts - **Spot Price**: The prices in different regions are provided [21]. - **Market Analysis**: The expected increase in planting area may put pressure on the price, and the current supply - demand is weak [21]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [21]. Cotton - **Spot Information**: The prices of domestic and foreign cotton are provided [22]. - **Market Analysis**: The USDA report is positive, and the domestic supply is expected to be loose, with short - term supply - demand contradictions [22]. - **Reference Views**: Limited upside space [22]. Bean II - **Spot Information**: The import costs of soybeans from different countries are provided [23]. - **Market Analysis**: The Middle - East conflict eases, and the weather affects the market [23]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term test of the support level [23]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are provided [24]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by macro - policies, international factors, and domestic supply - demand [24][25]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term test of the support level [25]. Soybean Oil - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are provided [26]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by international and domestic supply - demand factors [26]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [26]. Hogs - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions change [27]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors affect the price, and the price may oscillate [27]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term oscillation, and focus on the slaughter situation [27]. Eggs - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions decline [28]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is still excessive, and demand is weak in the off - season [28]. - **Reference Views**: Low - level oscillation, and focus on farmers' culling willingness [28]. Metals Shanghai Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of electrolytic copper rises, and the import index falls [29]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical and policy factors affect the market, and the copper market is in a complex situation [29]. - **Reference Views**: Wait for new signals [29]. Shanghai Aluminum - **Spot Information**: The price of aluminum rises [30]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical risks, supply - demand situation, and inventory level affect the price [30]. - **Reference Views**: Different strategies for different types of investors [30]. Alumina - **Spot Information**: The price of alumina falls [31]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is excessive, demand is average, and inventory is high [31]. - **Reference Views**: Weak adjustment [31]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Spot Information**: The price is stable [32]. - **Market Analysis**: Cost support and supply - demand contradictions affect the price [32]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [32]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Information**: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate rise [33]. - **Market Analysis**: Cost, supply, and demand factors lead to weak fundamentals and high inventory [33]. - **Reference Views**: Considered as an oversold rebound, and short - selling opportunities for aggressive investors [33]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of industrial silicon fall [34]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases, demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [34]. - **Reference Views**: Bottom - shock, and short - selling opportunities for aggressive investors [34]. Polysilicon - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of polysilicon are stable [34]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases, demand decreases, and inventory is high [34]. - **Reference Views**: Bottom - shock, and consider profit - taking for short - sellers [34]. Black Metals Stainless Steel - **Spot Information**: The price of cold - rolled stainless steel rises [35]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost support is weak, supply is high, and demand is weak [35]. - **Reference Views**: Weak shock at a low level [35]. Rebar - **Spot Information**: The price of rebar in Shanghai falls [36]. - **Market Analysis**: The market shows a shock trend, with cost and demand factors [36]. - **Reference Views**: Consider going long lightly at low levels [36]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Spot Information**: The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai is stable [37]. - **Market Analysis**: The market is stabilizing, with cost and demand factors [37]. - **Reference Views**: Consider going long lightly at low levels [37]. Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The prices of iron ore indexes and varieties are provided [38]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors, and external factors affect the price [38]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term shock, and focus on inventory and production resumption [38]. Coal - **Spot Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke change [39]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors affect the prices of coking coal and coke [39]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term shock, and focus on inventory and policies [39].

广发期货投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 r泉期货 GE ENTURES 中国成品油市场周度数据 苗扬 投资咨询号: Z0020680 万吨 F F END THE DE F 3500 3400 3300 3200 3100 3000 2900 2800 2700 2600 2500 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2020 -2021 - 2022 == 2023 == 2023 == =2024 = -2025 元/咖 PECE 3 T = 3 PHONE 2000 1500 1000 500 0 -500 -1000 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2021 = 2022 = -2023 - =2024 · -2025 HERE FEST FOR S 米 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 万吨 III Savis Ranger 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1月 2月 3月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The special engineering plastics industry is experiencing significant growth driven by national policies and increasing demand from high-tech sectors such as new energy vehicles, 5G communication, and aerospace. The market size in China is projected to grow from 7.2 billion yuan in 2018 to 16 billion yuan in 2024, and further to 21.2 billion yuan by 2027 [1][19]. Industry Overview - Special engineering plastics are a third generation of plastics, crucial for national economic development and high-end manufacturing upgrades. They include materials like polyimide (PI), polyamide-imide (PAI), and polyether-ether-ketone (PEEK), which exhibit high thermal stability and are used in electronics, automotive, and aerospace applications [4][19]. - The industry has evolved through four stages: the initial phase (1950-1979) focused on imports, the development phase (1980-1999) saw increased domestic production, the rapid growth phase (2000-2010) involved technological advancements, and the current mature phase (2011-present) emphasizes innovation and sustainability [6][7][8]. Market Dynamics - The domestic market for special engineering plastics is expected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.5% for key raw materials like naphtha, which is projected to increase from 35.8 million tons in 2018 to 80.7 million tons by 2024 [12]. - The global market for special engineering plastics is also expanding, with a forecasted growth from $9.853 billion in 2018 to $15.376 billion in 2024, and expected to reach $16.493 billion by 2025 [16][19]. Key Companies - Notable companies in the industry include Kingfa Technology, Water Holdings, and Prit, which are actively involved in the research, production, and sales of special engineering plastics. These companies are focusing on innovation and expanding their market presence [2][23][24]. - Kingfa Technology reported a revenue of 59.536 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 26.35% [26]. Water Holdings achieved a revenue of 0.922 billion yuan, with a growth of 10.55% [28]. Development Trends - The industry is moving towards functionalization, high performance, and scalability, with a focus on developing materials that meet specific application needs in sectors like aerospace and electronics [30][31][33]. - There is a growing emphasis on sustainability, with initiatives aimed at developing recyclable materials and optimizing production processes to reduce environmental impact [35]. Application Areas - Special engineering plastics are increasingly used in high-tech applications, including aerospace components, automotive parts, and electronic devices, driven by the demand for materials that can withstand extreme conditions [13][19][30].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **LLDPE & PP**: PE is expected to fluctuate, while PP is expected to trend downward in the short - term. PP's short - term production is at a high level due to the return of maintenance and smooth new production. PE's basis strengthens after the decline in the futures price, and the import volume in June decreased significantly with a slight increase expected in July. Both are affected by the off - season in demand [2]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand balance of styrene may gradually weaken. It is expected to continue to decline in the short - term due to increased supply, weak downstream demand, and geopolitical factors. It should be treated bearishly [7]. - **Urea**: In the short - term, attention should be paid to export progress, supply - side maintenance, and demand - side changes. It is advisable to consider going long at low prices based on the rebound logic driven by news, but strict stop - losses are required [11]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: For caustic soda, it is recommended to wait and see as it may face further inventory pressure after the return of maintenance devices. For PVC, it is advisable to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a medium - term short - selling strategy due to prominent supply - demand contradictions [39]. - **Methanol**: The market is affected by the easing of the Iranian situation, with a decline in the futures price and a strengthening basis. Attention should be paid to the actual shipping after the restart of Iranian devices. The inland supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season [49]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: PX, PTA, and other products are expected to fluctuate. For example, PX is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and it is advisable to wait and see in the short - term [52]. - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, lacking a strong trend. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and capture opportunities in option trading when volatility narrows [56]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs LLDPE & PP - **Price Changes**: L2601, L2509, PP2509 prices increased slightly, while PP2601 decreased slightly. The basis and spreads of some varieties also changed [2]. - **Inventory &开工率**: PE enterprise and social inventories decreased, and the device and downstream weighted开工率 decreased slightly. PP enterprise and trader inventories decreased, the device开工率 increased, and the downstream weighted开工率 decreased slightly [2]. Styrene - **Price Changes**: The prices of styrene's upstream raw materials, spot, futures, and overseas quotes changed to varying degrees. The import profit decreased significantly [4][5][6]. - **开工率 & Profit**: The开工率 of domestic and Asian pure benzene, styrene, and some downstream products changed. The integrated profit of styrene decreased significantly, while the non - integrated profit increased [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of pure benzene ports, styrene ports, and some downstream products changed [7]. Urea - **Price Changes**: The futures prices of urea contracts increased, and the spreads between contracts changed. The prices of upstream raw materials and spot in different regions also changed [11]. - **Position & Volume**: The long and short positions of the top 20 traders changed, and the trading volume increased [11]. - **Supply & Demand**: The daily and weekly production of urea, the开工率 of production enterprises, and the inventory of urea all changed. The inventory of some enterprises decreased [11]. PVC & Caustic Soda - **Price Changes**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda's futures and spot changed slightly. The export profit of caustic soda increased, while that of PVC decreased [35][36]. - **Supply**: The开工率 of the chlor - alkali industry and the profit of different production methods changed [37]. - **Demand**: The开工率 of caustic soda's downstream industries and PVC's downstream products changed [38][39]. Methanol - **Price Changes**: The futures prices of methanol contracts increased, and the basis and regional spreads changed [49]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise, social, and port inventories of methanol changed [49]. - **开工率**: The upstream and downstream开工率 of methanol changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [49]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price Changes**: The prices of upstream raw materials, polyester products, and their futures and cash flows changed. The spreads and processing fees of some products also changed [52]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of different links in the polyester industry chain, including PX, PTA, MEG, and downstream products, changed [52]. Crude Oil - **Price Changes**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil, as well as the prices and spreads of refined oil products, changed [56]. - **裂解价差**: The cracking spreads of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in different regions changed [56]. - **Market Drivers**: Oil prices are driven by factors such as inventory changes, Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and geopolitical factors. The market is in a multi - empty stalemate [56].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a rating of "oscillating operation" for the plastics industry [1] Core Viewpoint - The plastics market is expected to oscillate at a low level in the near future due to factors such as increased supply from restarted and newly - commissioned plants, low downstream demand, high inventory pressure, and falling energy prices [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Recommend to close long positions. The restart of maintenance devices has increased the plastics operating rate to about 87%, reaching a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE has decreased to 38.69%, with a decline in agricultural film orders and a slight increase in packaging film orders. Petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. The US tariff increase and restricted ethane imports, along with the cooling of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and falling oil prices, contribute to the expected low - level oscillation of plastics [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastics 2509 contract oscillated with reducing positions, closing at 7271 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The trading volume decreased by 12,263 lots to 461,763 lots [2] - **Spot**: Most PE spot prices fell, with price changes ranging from - 200 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was quoted at 7260 - 7590 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9580 - 9830 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7700 - 8100 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: The restart of maintenance devices in Dushanzi Petrochemical and Tarim Petrochemical has increased the plastics operating rate to about 87%, reaching a neutral level [1][4] - **Demand**: As of the week of June 20, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.06 percentage points to 38.69%. Agricultural film entered the off - season, with a decline in orders and a slight increase in raw material inventory. Packaging film orders increased slightly, and the overall downstream operating rate was at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [1][4] - **Inventory**: Petrochemical inventory decreased to 76.5 tons on Wednesday, 2.5 tons higher than the same period last year. It is at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years [1][4] - **Raw Materials**: Brent crude oil 08 contract fell to $68/barrel. Northeast Asian ethylene prices remained flat at $860/ton, and Southeast Asian ethylene prices remained flat at $850/ton [4]

Group 1 - India has become the world's largest plastic pollution country, emitting 9.3 million tons of plastic waste annually, accounting for 20% of global plastic waste emissions [1] - The plastic industry in India is large, but the recycling rate is only 12%, with 20% of plastic waste incinerated and about 70% unaccounted for, potentially ending up in landfills or on the streets [1] - The Indian government has implemented measures to reduce plastic usage, but faces challenges such as weak regulation, an underdeveloped market for alternatives, and low public awareness [1][4] Group 2 - A 2018 survey indicated that 14 out of the 15 most polluted cities globally are in India, highlighting the severe pollution problem as a consequence of rapid development over the past 20 years [1] - In 2022, India began a comprehensive ban on the manufacture, storage, import, sale, and use of single-use plastic products, but enforcement of such bans has been minimal [4] - A study published in a renowned journal indicated that plastic pollution is a pressing global challenge, with South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and Southeast Asia being the highest emitters, with India being the largest contributor to plastic waste [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. Core Views - The market is significantly affected by the Israel - Iran cease - fire news. Crude oil prices have dropped sharply as the geopolitical risk premium fades. Different energy and chemical products will gradually return to fundamental - driven pricing, with varying trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals [1][2]. - For most products, short - term market trends are influenced by geopolitical factors, and mid - to long - term trends are determined by supply - demand relationships, production capacity changes, and cost factors. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2508 closed at $68.51, down $5.33 (-7.22%); Brent2508 closed at $71.48, down $5.53 (-7.18%); SC2508 closed at 537.7 yuan/barrel after night trading [1]. - **Logic Analysis**: Market prices in response to the cooling of geopolitical conflicts. If geopolitical conflicts ease, crude oil will return to fundamental pricing, with short - term trading on third - quarter peak - season expectations and long - term trading on the contradiction of increased supply - demand surplus under OPEC+ continuous production increases. The expected trading range for Brent in the third quarter is $60 - 72 per barrel [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term volatility, with Brent trading in the range of $66 - 72 per barrel. Pay attention to the certainty of the Middle - East cease - fire [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 closed at 3737 points (-1.16%) at night; BU2512 closed at 3574 points (-1.27%) at night. Spot prices in different regions showed an upward trend [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: After the sharp drop in oil prices, the upward cost - driven factor for asphalt disappeared. The short - term supply - demand situation is weak, and inventory is lower than the same period. The price of the BU main contract is expected to range from 3600 to 3750 [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak and volatile. The spread between asphalt and crude oil will rebound [5]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - **Market Review**: PG2507 closed at 4538 (-0.42%) at night; PG2508 closed at 4522 (-0.18%) at night. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [5]. - **Logic Analysis**: With the decline in oil prices, the supply of LPG decreased slightly last week, and the international shipping volume decreased. The combustion - end demand is expected to be weak, while the chemical - sector demand is expected to increase. Overall, the fundamentals are relatively loose, and the price is expected to decline [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price of LPG is expected to be weak [8]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 closed at 3341 (-0.83%) at night; LU08 closed at 3988 (-0.05%) at night. Singapore paper - cargo spreads changed [8]. - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur fuel oil trading remains active, with high - sulfur cracking supported by geopolitical factors and peak - season power - generation demand. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing, but downstream demand is weak. The price of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be supported, while low - sulfur fuel oil needs to be observed for further trends [10][11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for single - side trading. Consider taking profit on the positive spread of FU9 - 1 [11]. Natural Gas - **Logic Analysis**: US natural gas inventory accumulation was lower than expected. Production increased slightly, demand was at a historical high, and LNG export volume was 14.2 bcf/d. European natural gas prices decreased due to the cease - fire news. The price of natural gas is expected to rise [11][13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on HH at dips and be bullish on TTF [13]. PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 closed at 7076 (-0.70%) at night. Spot prices increased, and PXN was $264/ton, up $8/ton [13][14]. - **Logic Analysis**: Many PX plants have maintenance plans or production cuts, and the Asian PX operating rate has declined recently, resulting in tight supply. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations. Long PX and short PTA for spreads [14][15]. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 closed at 4986 (-0.52%) at night. Spot prices and basis changed [15]. - **Logic Analysis**: Some PTA plants have reduced production or shut down, and the operating rate has decreased. Downstream polyester operating rate has increased, but profits have been compressed. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations. Long PX and short PTA for spreads [15][16]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 closed at 4454 (-1.04%) at night. Spot basis and prices changed [16][17]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic and foreign plants have restarted or increased production, and the operating rate has increased significantly. Downstream polyester operating rate has increased, but terminal demand has weakened. The supply - demand pattern in June and July is still tight, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations [17][18]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2508 closed at 6796 (-0.44%) at night. Spot prices increased, but downstream was mostly waiting and watching [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply has increased and demand has decreased recently, but production and sales are stable, and processing fees have increased. Some large factories have tight supply, and processing fees are expected to be strongly supported. The price is expected to fluctuate widely following raw materials [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations. Short PTA and long PF for spreads [19][20]. PR (Bottle Chips) - **Market Review**: PR2509 closed at 6172 (-0.58%) at night. Spot market trading was okay [19][20]. - **Logic Analysis**: Some bottle - chip plants have increased production, and inventory has risen. Some plants have plans to reduce production or shut down. The price is expected to fluctuate widely following raw materials [20][21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations [20][21]. Styrene - **Market Review**: EB2508 closed at 7486 (-1.28%) at night. Spot prices and basis changed [21]. - **Logic Analysis**: Pure - benzene prices are expected to be stable and slightly strong. Styrene supply has increased, and downstream operating rate is at a seasonal low. The price is mainly guided by cost factors and is expected to fluctuate widely [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations [22]. Plastic PP - **Market Review**: LLDPE prices fluctuated, and PP prices were relatively stable [23]. - **Logic Analysis**: Previous price increases were affected by Middle - East geopolitics. After the cease - fire news, oil prices dropped, and plastic PP is expected to open lower. In the medium term, supply - demand is expected to be weak, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [24][25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Open lower. Short - sell on rallies, paying attention to the certainty of the cease - fire and oil prices [25]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **PVC Market Review**: PVC prices were slightly adjusted, and trading was light [27]. - **PVC Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is still dragged down by the real - estate market. The medium - to long - term supply - demand is in surplus, and a short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended [29]. - **Caustic Soda Logic Analysis**: The 09 contract of caustic soda is expected to be weak. Demand is expected to have no significant increase in the medium term, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation. A short - selling strategy is recommended [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell caustic soda and PVC. Hold the 8 - 10 reverse spread for caustic soda [31][32]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass 09 contract closed at 1009 yuan/ton (+0.20%) at night. Spot prices changed slightly [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is increasing, and demand is affected by the real - estate market. The price is expected to be weak in the short term. Pay attention to cost reduction and plant cold - repair [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. Sell out - of - the - money call options [34]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda - ash 09 contract closed at 1170 yuan/ton (-0.3%) at night. Spot prices fluctuated slightly [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is at a high level, and demand from downstream photovoltaic glass is expected to decline. Inventory has increased, and costs have decreased. A short - selling strategy is recommended [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell soda ash. Sell out - of - the - money call options [36]. Urea - **Market Review**: Urea futures closed at 1711 (-2%). Spot prices declined, and trading was weak [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is at a high level, and domestic demand is declining. International prices are strong, and export orders have increased, but the market is still expected to be weak in the short term [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak trend. Sell call options on rebounds [38]. Methanol - **Market Review**: Methanol futures closed at 2469 (-1.71%). Spot prices in different regions varied [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: International supply has tightened, but domestic supply is loose. Downstream demand is stable, and port inventory is increasing. The price is expected to decline in the short term [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak trend. Sell call options [39]. Logs - **Market Review**: Log prices in some regions increased slightly, and the main contract price rose [39][40]. - **Logic Analysis**: Downstream demand is still weak, and the market faces challenges in the medium - to long - term. The futures market is supported by delivery rules. [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for single - side trading. Pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [42]. Double - Coated Paper - **Market Review**: The double - coated paper market was stable with some declines. Trading was general [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: Industry profitability is low, production has decreased, but inventory pressure is still high. Demand is weak, and pulp prices provide limited support [43]. Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: Corrugated and box - board paper prices declined slightly, and trading was weak [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply may be reduced, demand is in the off - season, and prices are expected to decline slightly in the next period [45]. Pulp - **Market Review**: Pulp futures declined. Spot prices of different types of pulp changed [45]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic paper production has increased, and Taiwan's paper production has declined. The price of the SP main contract is expected to be affected negatively [47]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for the SP 09 contract. Hold the 5*SP2509 - 2*NR2509 spread [47]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - **Market Review**: RU09 closed at 13835 (-0.82%); NR08 closed at 12020 (+0.08%). Spot prices of different types of rubber changed [47][48]. - **Logic Analysis**: Vietnam's rubber industry faces challenges from EU regulations. Domestic inventory shows different trends. [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for the RU09 contract. Hold short positions on the NR08 contract. Adjust stop - loss levels [50]. Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: BR08 closed at 11440 (-0.13%). Spot prices of butadiene rubber and related products changed [51]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic butadiene rubber inventory is increasing. Some tire projects are being invested [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell a small amount of the BR08 contract. Hold the BR2508 - NR2508 spread. Sell the BR2508 call 12200 contract [52][53].