美股 AI：新高之后是否还会继续？20250517 摘要 • 2 月至 4 月美股下跌 18%后反弹，受业绩指引低于预期、资本支出削减、 关税影响及降息预期等多重因素影响，但季报发布后，互联网、软件、半 导体等公司业绩超预期推动反弹。 • 未来几个月美股 AI 板块走势需关注宏观经济增速、降息预期和关税措施等 关键变量。目前，受益于业绩指引超预期和 AI 商业化加速，预计二季度及 后续仍有望保持强势。 • 软件公司在 2025 年第一季度表现乐观，超预期比例高，而半导体和算力 相关公司业绩则普遍不及预期，主要受 AI 算力增速放缓和 NVIDIA 交付周 期影响。 • 近期美股上涨主要由微观企业业绩超预期和宏观经济预期修复驱动，但中 观产业层面变化不显著，AI 领域尚未出现新的叙事逻辑，部分投资者踏空。 • 美股未来走势可能横盘整理或继续上涨，继续上涨需中观产业层面出现变 化，收入增速加速是关键。AI 相关公司中，收入加速增长的公司股价表现 显著优于其他公司。 Q&A 最近一周，美股 AI 板块的表现显著超出市场预期，许多公司创下新高。背后的 推动因素主要包括宏观经济变量的变化以及市场对 AI 应用前景的乐观 ...

宏观•要闻 央行即将公布5月1/5年期贷款市场报价利率（LPR） 中国人民银行将于5月20日公布1/5年期贷款市场报价利率（LPR），截至目前，1年期LPR为3.1%，5年期以上LPR为3.6%，LPR已连续6个月"按兵不动"。 值得一提的是，为实施好适度宽松的货币政策，加力支持实体经济，从2025年5月8日起，公开市场7天期逆回购操作利率由此前的1.50%调整为1.40%， 预计 将带动LPR下行约0.1个百分点 。 北京市委书记尹力调研并出席金融工作座谈会 5月16日上午，北京市委书记尹力围绕"服务国家金融管理中心建设，推动首都金融高质量发展"调查研究，并召开金融工作座谈会。中央金融办分管日常工作 的副主任王江，中国人民银行行长潘功胜，国家金融监督管理总局局长李云泽，中国证监会主席吴清，北京市委副书记、市长殷勇分别参加。 北京市和中国证监会领导来到北京证券交易所，察看企业上市审核流程展示，了解北交所努力打造服务创新型中小企业主阵地等情况。尹力指出，要深化北 交所改革，不断完善制度设计，实现健康快速发展。落实好北交所深改19条，推动上市企业扩围提质。 美国主权信用评级遭下调 国际信用评级机构穆迪5月16日宣 ...

Investment Rating - The report highlights Wind River's VxWorks as a leading real-time operating system for embedded systems, indicating a strong investment potential in the embedded operating system market. Core Insights - Wind River's VxWorks has a proven track record of successful deployments across various sectors, including aerospace, industrial, medical, and automotive applications, powering billions of smart devices and systems [3][8]. - The operating system supports both current and future embedded hardware through extensive collaboration with ecosystem partners, optimizing for advanced processors and system-on-chip (SoC) [4]. - Wind River provides a comprehensive development environment with tools that accelerate the development of safety-critical and mission-critical systems, including an integrated development and debugging environment [5]. - The operating system supports modern programming frameworks and languages, enhancing development efficiency and enabling the use of AI/ML frameworks [6]. - VxWorks offers full source code access for flexible configuration and expansion, allowing engineers to customize the OS according to specific project needs [7]. - The operating system is utilized in safety certification projects, meeting various safety standards such as DO-178C and ISO26262, which is crucial for industries requiring high reliability [8]. - VxWorks supports virtualization and OCI containers, enabling the integration of multiple embedded operating systems on a single device, maximizing existing intellectual property investments [9][10]. - Advanced security features are integrated into VxWorks, addressing current and emerging threats while providing a modular design for future-proofing [11]. - Wind River offers extensive technical support options, ensuring developers have access to real-time assistance and self-service resources [12].

Group 1: Telecommunications and Technology Development - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizes accelerating the development of 5G-A and 6G technologies to empower modern industrial systems [1] - There is a focus on meeting enterprise development needs and enhancing market access, fair competition, and credit management systems [1] - The initiative aims to promote cross-regional and cross-industry collaboration in building new infrastructure, supporting the high-end, intelligent, and green development of manufacturing [1] Group 2: Market Insights and Investment Strategies - Changcheng Securities notes a shift in investment forces, with a focus on urban renewal actions supported by central and local government financing [2][3] - The market is optimistic about the medium to long-term outlook despite recent fluctuations, with attention on large consumer, domestic control, and technology sectors [3] - The AI Agent market is projected to open up a trillion-dollar enterprise-level digital labor market, with significant penetration across various industries [4][5] Group 3: AI and Digital Transformation - AI Agents are seen as a key to solving the limitations of generative AI models, driving practical and intelligent applications [4] - The enterprise market for AI Agents is expected to grow significantly, targeting the real labor market rather than traditional IT budgets [5][6] - Various sectors, including industrial, education, finance, and retail, are anticipated to benefit from AI Agent applications, with a projected market expansion into trillions of dollars [6] Group 4: Foldable Screen Technology - The foldable screen smartphone market is experiencing rapid growth, while the foldable screen computer market is gaining attention with new product launches [7] - The global shipment growth rate for foldable smartphones is projected to slow to 2.9% in 2024, indicating a need for innovation in display materials and manufacturing techniques [7] - Key cost components in foldable screens include materials and hinges, with companies exploring advanced materials to enhance product quality [7] Group 5: Communication Industry Trends - The demand for AI-driven computing power is increasing, with a notable rise in the number of funds holding telecommunications stocks [8][9] - The communication sector is expected to see a recovery in overall revenue and profit margins, driven by AI and emerging sub-industries [8] - The AI and telecommunications sectors are experiencing strong revenue growth, with a focus on optimizing capital expenditure structures [9]

Core Insights - The rapid growth of global enterprise data is driven by Generative AI technologies, with significant implications for the industry [1] Group 1 - According to IDC, the global volume of newly generated data is expected to reach 393.9 ZB (zettabytes) by 2028 [1] - The scale and growth rate of enterprise data are particularly notable, highlighting the impact of Generative AI on data generation [1]

周五（5月16日），阿斯麦控股荷兰阿姆斯特丹股价（ASML.NA）收跌2.02%，报668.40欧元，本周累计上涨6.64%。 诺和诺德哥本哈根股价（NOVOB.DC）收跌1.81%，报426.60（丹麦克朗），本周累跌4.00%。 | 名称 = | | 代码 = | | 开盘 | | | 涨跌额 : | 涨跌幅 : | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | GSK plc | | GSK | 1.394.50 | 1.388.50 | 1,403.50 | 1.380.50 | +32.00 | +2.35% | | | 赛诺菲 | SASY | 91.79 | 91.76 | 92.11 | 90.93 | +1.92 | +2.14% | | HE | 阿斯利康制药 | AZN | 10,330.0 | 10,230.0 | 10,376.0 | 10,214.2 | +188.0 | +1.85% | | I | SAP公司 | SAPG | 266.250 | 263.250 | 268.300 | 263.250 | + ...

据知情人士透露，华平投资集团（Warburg Pincus）正设法出售美国软件集团Ensemble Health Partners。 伯克希尔合伙人（Berkshire Partners）也考虑出售Ensemble Health。预计Ensemble Health将获得高达120 亿美元估值（含债务）。Ensemble的多数股东正在聘请顾问来指导可能的出售，这可能导致私募股权集 团出售整个Ensemble Health Partners的业务或部分股权。华平投资集团拒绝置评，伯克希尔合伙人和 Ensemble的商业合作伙伴Bon Secours尚未回应置评请求。（英国金融时报） ...

Group 1 - The core idea of the news is the launch of the "Spring Bud Plan" by Kingsoft Office, which aims to establish an industry-education integration community to enhance digital education and AI talent cultivation in China [2][3][4] - Kingsoft Office will invest 1 billion yuan over the next three years to support educational institutions in their digital transformation through the Kingsoft Smart Education platform [2][3] - The plan aims to integrate the education chain, talent chain, industry chain, and innovation chain in the field of information technology, providing a new platform for talent training and technology development [2][4] Group 2 - The "Spring Bud Plan" will benefit 10 million vocational school students by creating a cloud platform that integrates industry and education, facilitating the alignment of technical skills with industry needs [5][6] - Kingsoft Office's WPS 365 education version has a coverage rate of 75% in top-tier universities, serving over 20 million teachers and students [6][7] - The company aims to enhance employment opportunities for students skilled in AI office tools through a collaboration with Zhaopin to create more internship and job opportunities [7]

Market Performance - A-shares experienced a decline across the board, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.68% to 3380.82 points, the Shenzhen Composite Index down by 1.37%, the ChiNext Index down by 1.77%, the STAR 50 Index down by 1.26%, and the Northbound 50 Index down by 0.38% [1] - The beauty and personal care sector led the gains, while sectors such as software development, internet services, power equipment, semiconductors, diversified finance, and securities saw relatively larger declines [1] International Market Context - U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones slightly down, the S&P 500 nearly flat, and the Nasdaq up by 0.72%, marking three consecutive days of significant gains for the Nasdaq [1] - Following the U.S.-China tariff agreement, U.S. stocks surged initially, but only the Nasdaq maintained strong performance, while blue-chip stocks in the Dow and S&P 500 remained relatively weak due to recent positive news for tech stocks [1] - Hong Kong stocks also retreated, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.79% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 1.56% [1] Currency Market - The U.S. dollar experienced fluctuations, dipping before recovering, but saw a decline again during the Asian and European trading sessions [1] - The offshore RMB exchange rate stabilized around 7.2080 after a depreciation on Wednesday [1] Trade Relations and Market Outlook - The impact of U.S.-China trade tensions on international financial markets appears to have subsided, but investor confidence remains cautious, contributing to the stock market's loss of upward momentum [2] - The likelihood of significant upward or downward movements in A-shares is low, with a balanced oscillation pattern expected to prevail [2] - Current macroeconomic policies in China are anticipated to offset external pressures, leading to limited volatility in the stock market [2]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's report highlights the mixed performance of GoDaddy, the improvement in Wix.com, and the continued deterioration of LegalZoom's data in April's internet traffic trends [1][2] - GoDaddy acknowledges pressure on its customer base related to economic outlook but emphasizes stable channel trends and historical resilience during macroeconomic headwinds [2] - LegalZoom faces increased pressure on new business formation, with management now expecting a decline in new business formation for fiscal year 2025, despite noting that dissolution rates have not increased [2] Group 2 - April traffic trends indicate that GoDaddy's homepage traffic accelerated while login page traffic declined, reflecting a mixed trend [3] - Wix.com shows an upward trend despite high baseline comparisons, building confidence in the demand for its portfolio ahead of its Q1 earnings report [3] - LegalZoom's month-over-month comparative trend has further deteriorated, although the baseline comparison remains relatively lenient [3] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley maintains a cautious outlook on the potential for downward adjustments in booking guidance for fiscal year 2025, which could negate acceleration expectations for the second half of the year [2] - The strong performance of the tech portfolio and the acceleration of future innovations create a compelling narrative for investors, despite the ongoing search for sustained improvement in network traffic [2] - Recruitment trends across the three companies remain weak, with hiring levels hovering near historical lows, below pre-pandemic trends [2]