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利润承压、转型紧迫压力笼罩石化产业,行业龙头锚定高端化智能化破卷
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-12-17 13:51
行业探索产品高端化与装置智能化降本的破局之道。 石化行业正深陷"产能过剩、利润承压、转型迫切"的三重困境。今年以来,化工行业整体步入下行通道,据连云港市发改委近日监测的国内16种主要化工品 价格,其综合平均价较年初已下降近14%。 "'内卷式'竞争正在冲击既有市场秩序,导致近三年来'增产增销不增利'。"中国石化联合会副会长傅向升此前表示,石化行业近十年来快速发展,新建炼化 一体化装置接续投产,一些大宗基础产品和通用材料"内卷式"竞争日渐严重。乙烯、苯酚、EVA、PX、PA66等多种石化产品或材料近五年来的产能、产量 累计增幅都在50%以上,有些产品产能远超国内市场消费量。 而同时,建筑、服装等产业消费增速放缓,削弱对大宗化工品的需求,加之全国仍有大量产能200万吨以下的老旧炼油装置在运行,导致石化行业陷入"内 卷"旋涡,产业结构优化与升级改造迫在眉睫。 此一背景下,作为石化龙头企业,中国石化(600028.SH)尝试以旗下茂名石化和中科炼化为实践样本,探索产品高端化与智能化降本的破局之路。 "以前拼原油加工规模,现在拼高端材料话语权。"在中国石化近日召开的上市25周年投资者反向路演活动上,茂名石化总经理杨文德 ...
聚乙烯市场“跌跌不休” 困境在哪里?
Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang· 2025-12-17 11:45
Core Viewpoint - The polyethylene market in December is experiencing a continuous decline due to a combination of increased supply, weakened demand, and reduced costs, leading to a persistent weak market trend [1] Supply Side - Domestic petrochemical main facilities maintained stable operations in December without significant maintenance, and some previously halted facilities resumed operations, contributing to increased production. However, inventory depletion is progressing slowly, keeping supply abundant [2] Demand Side - Demand in December has shown a significant seasonal decline, with colder temperatures causing adjustments in the agricultural film market. Overall industry demand is decreasing, with specific sectors like greenhouse film nearing completion and ground film demand remaining weak. As of December 13, operational rates for various downstream sectors are as follows: agricultural film at 36.0%, packaging film at 54.0%, thin film at 50.0%, hollow film at 51.0%, pipe materials at 30.0%, and injection molding at 50.5% [2] Cost Side - International crude oil prices continued to decline in December, with Brent crude falling below $60 per barrel, closing at $58.92, the lowest since early February 2021. WTI is also nearing the $55 per barrel mark. Year-to-date, WTI prices have dropped approximately 23%, marking the worst performance since 2018, while Brent has decreased about 21%, the worst since 2020. This decline in oil prices is expected to further reduce the cost of oil-based polyethylene, diminishing its support for polyethylene prices [3] Futures Market - The main futures contract for polyethylene has shown a downward trend since December, with the contract changing from 2601 to 2605 on December 5. The lowest price reached was 6475, followed by a slight rebound. However, after the market digested positive economic data from November, no new positive drivers emerged, leading the market to revert to fundamental operations. The short-term outlook for the main contract 2605 is expected to seek bottom support, with a trading range between 6450 and 6750 [3] Overall Market Outlook - In summary, the polyethylene market is unlikely to escape its current difficulties in the short term. Upstream producers and traders are focused on actively selling, and low-price transactions are unlikely to change the overall weak market sentiment. The market lacks core positive stimuli, and a continuation of the weak trend is expected as December concludes [4]
总投资超15亿元的中试基地,全链条贯通!
Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao· 2025-12-17 09:16
Core Insights - Sinopec's Petrochemical Research Institute has successfully completed the full process of lubricating grease production, marking the integration of R&D, pilot testing, and production at its Tianjin base [1][2] - The Tianjin base project is a key collaboration between Sinopec Group and Tianjin Economic Development Zone, focusing on high-quality petrochemical industry development [1] Group 1 - The total investment for the Tianjin base project is 1.589 billion yuan, covering an area of approximately 360 acres with a total construction area of about 70,000 square meters [1] - The project will establish four research and pilot testing platforms: low-carbon oil integration, high-end carbon materials, hydrogen and electrochemistry, and resource recycling, along with two pilot production bases for special lubricating greases and petroleum products [1] Group 2 - Once fully operational, the Tianjin base will serve as a source of innovation for new energy and chemical technologies, a platform for collaborative innovation, and a base for R&D and production of specialty petroleum products and high-end chemicals [2] - The technological achievements from this project are expected to provide solutions for the petrochemical industry's transition to new energy, new materials, and green chemistry, addressing critical technology gaps and enhancing the R&D capabilities of the South Port Industrial Zone and Tianjin's petrochemical industry [2]
从“末梢”到“枢纽”:广湛高铁引领粤西迈入湾区同城时代
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao· 2025-12-17 06:41
"马上就要通车了。"粤西人民期盼已久的广湛高铁,本月通车在即!粤西中心城市湛江将历史性地融入 广州"90分钟"交通圈。 这不仅是地理时空的压缩,更是湛江经济发展动能、区域角色与城市能级的深刻重构。粤港澳大湾区的 资本、技术、人才、信息等高端要素,将以前所未有的速度和效率向湛江、向经济技术开发区(东海 岛)集聚。 这一条时速350公里的高铁,即将成为催化千亿级"产业森林"茂盛生长、驱动这座省域副中心城市迈向 现代化沿海经济带重要发展极的关键变量。 从"粤西门户"到湾区"产业合伙人" 湛江市位于中国大陆最南端、广东省西南部,地处粤琼桂三省(区)交汇处,是全国首批14个对外开放 沿海城市之一,被定位为现代化沿海经济带重要发展极、广东省域副中心城市。 2018年7月,设计时速为200公里/小时的江湛铁路开启了粤西的"动车时代",它的通车结束了湛江、茂 名、阳江三市不通高铁的历史。 图为试运行列车驶过广湛高铁"隔音隧道"(中铁二十五局供图)。 而广湛高铁将真正引领粤西迈入与大湾区的"同城时代",为区域发展注入全新动能。 2025年12月10日,广州白云站,广湛高铁试运行列车G5211次开出,途经广州、佛山、肇庆、云浮、 ...
伍德麦肯兹:五大趋势重塑全球能源资源格局
Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao· 2025-12-17 06:01
其三,英国北海油气资产遭遇严重价值折损。因两年半内五次调整财税体系且监管政策不明,该地区油 气资产隐含长期油价(ILTOP)仅约40美元/桶,较经合组织(OECD)70美元/桶的平均水平折价40%,投资 者信心崩塌,资本投入停滞。 中化新网讯 近日,伍德麦肯兹发布最新《地平线》报告称,2025年,五大趋势重塑了全球能源资源领 域,其背后是地缘格局变动、产业战略重构与技术迭代加速的共同驱动。 其一,美国LNG实现颠覆性逆转。短短10年间,美国从LNG进口国蜕变为全球最大出口国,预计2030 年其LNG产量将占全球30%;同时美国还领跑全球油气生产,产量占全球五分之一,远超沙特和俄罗 斯。 其二,稀土成全球贸易核心焦点。稀土广泛应用于可再生能源、高端武器、半导体等关键领域,仅磁体 用途就占其总需求近半。 其四,欧洲石化产业出现大规模产能清退。为减排推进的去工业化,导致欧洲乙烯产能持续关停,2022 年至2027年相关产能退出每年造成40亿美元的总附加值损失。 其五,AI成为电力需求增长的核心引擎。数据中心半数运营成本来自电力,电价成为AI竞争关键变 量。美国电力市场受AI驱动,2030年前电力需求复合增长率将达2 ...
14亿元大宗交易背后的“心酸往事”:恒逸石化第四期员工持股计划参与者亏损惨重
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-12-17 05:17
从本次卖出价格来看,恒逸石化第四期员工持股计划以及恒逸集团及附属企业之部分员工信托计划均以 大幅亏损收场。 全文请见:14亿元大宗交易背后的"心酸往事":恒逸石化第四期员工持股计划参与者亏损惨重,控股股 东接盘于事无补 12月15日晚,恒逸石化(000703)公告其控股股东及一致行动人通过大宗交易增持公司近14亿元。而公 告后的首个交易日,恒逸石化的股价却出现大幅下跌,盘中最大跌幅超过9%!面对如此重大利好,恒 逸石化的股价为何表现如此之差? 每经资本眼专栏记者调查发现,2025年12月5日,恒逸石化发生五笔大宗交易,成交价均为8.23元,合 计成交量约为1.7亿股。这1.7亿股中约有1.62亿股,来自于恒逸石化第四期员工持股计划以及恒逸集团 及附属企业之部分员工信托计划。 ...
辉煌“十四五” 壮美新答卷 | 钦州打造面向东盟的世界级石化产业集群
Guang Xi Ri Bao· 2025-12-17 03:33
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the successful export of 4,100 tons of methyl tert-butyl ether from the China National Petroleum Corporation's Guangxi petrochemical integrated transformation project, marking its entry into the international market [1] - The total investment for the Guangxi petrochemical integrated transformation project exceeds 30 billion yuan, with construction starting in July 2023 and expected to be completed by October 2025 [1] - Upon completion, the project will reduce oil product output by 3.49 million tons annually and increase chemical product output by 3.06 million tons, addressing the domestic supply gap for high-end chemical new materials [1] Group 2 - The city of Qinzhou has focused on coastal port industry development, establishing the green petrochemical industry as its primary pillar, and has been recognized as a national green chemical park [2] - The Qinzhou petrochemical industrial park has attracted significant investments, with a total project investment exceeding 300 billion yuan, and aims to become a world-class green petrochemical base [2][3] - The industrial park has developed a diverse industrial system, integrating oil, coal, gas, and salt, and has formed a unique "4+1" industrial chain [2] Group 3 - The Huayi Qinzhou base, with a total investment exceeding 90 billion yuan, is the largest single industrial project in the region and is expected to create over 6,000 jobs [3] - The Qinzhou petrochemical industrial park has established various innovation platforms to drive high-quality industrial development and is working towards becoming a national-level petrochemical industry technology innovation center [4] - The park aims to achieve a petrochemical industry output value exceeding 250 billion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, supporting the development of a trillion-yuan petrochemical industry cluster in Guangxi [4]
14亿元大宗交易背后的“心酸往事”:恒逸石化第四期员工持股计划参与者亏损惨重,控股股东接盘于事无补
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-12-17 03:01
不久前,恒逸石化全资子公司曾陷入舆情风波,而近期公司发布的增持公告又牵出一段"心酸往事"。 12月15日晚,恒逸石化公告其控股股东及一致行动人通过大宗交易增持公司近14亿元。而公告后的首个交易日,恒逸石化的股价却出现大幅下跌,盘中 最大跌幅超过9%!面对如此重大利好,恒逸石化的股价为何表现如此之差?对此,每经资本眼专栏记者展开调查。控股股东增持股份来源主要为公司第 四期员工持股计划 恒逸石化是全球领先的"炼油—化工—化纤"全产业链一体化龙头企业,构建起国内独有的"涤纶+锦纶"双主业驱动模式。依托"文莱炼化基地—国内聚酯 产业"的境内外协同联动优势,公司已形成上中下游垂直整合、各业务板块均衡发展的柱状产业布局。 2025年12月15日晚间,恒逸石化发布了关于控股股东及其一致行动人增持公司股份进展的公告。该公告显示,2025年12月15日,公司控股股东浙江恒逸 集团有限公司(以下简称"恒逸集团")以大宗交易的方式,增持公司股份约1.22亿股,增持金额约为10亿元(不含手续费);控股股东的一致行动人杭 州恒逸投资有限公司(以下简称"恒逸投资")以大宗交易的方式,增持公司股份约4784万股,增持金额为3.94亿元(不 ...
国内高频 | 工业生产延续弱势(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
赵伟宏观探索· 2025-12-16 16:03
文 | 赵伟、屠强、李欣越 联系人 | 屠强、耿佩璇 图 32: 上周, 高炉开工率延续回落 全国高炉开工率 (247家) · 2019 =2021 2022 == 2020 2023 -2024 2025 85 80 75 70 65 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 资料来源: Wind、申万宏源研究 图 33: 上周, 钢材周表观消费有所回落 五大品种钢材周表观消费量 -- 2019 =2021 = 2022 2023 = 2025 1300 万吨 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12月 资料来源:iFind、申万宏源研究 报告正文 2.国内高频:工业生产延续弱势 2.1 生产高频跟踪:工业生产延续弱势,建筑业开工相对稳定 全国商品房成交持续低位,不同能级城市成交仍较弱。 上周(12月07日至12月13日),30大中城市商 品房日均成交面积环比13.8%、同比+10.2pct至-33.4%。分不同能级城市看,一线、二线、三线成交均较弱, 同比 ...
国内高频 | 工业生产延续弱势(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
申万宏源宏观· 2025-12-16 13:17
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the ongoing weakness in industrial production and real estate transactions in China, with various sectors showing signs of decline or stagnation in activity levels. Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production continues to show weakness, with a notable decline in the operating rates of blast furnaces [4][5] - The weekly apparent consumption of five major steel products has also decreased [5] - In the petrochemical sector, there is a marginal improvement in operating rates for certain products, while downstream consumption remains relatively weak [8][12] Group 2: Construction Industry - The cement industry shows stable production and a slight increase in prices, with the national grinding operating rate remaining steady [15][19] - Cement shipment rates have slightly declined, and the inventory ratio continues to decrease [15][20] Group 3: Real Estate Market - The national average daily transaction area for commercial housing remains low, with significant declines in transactions across different city tiers [29][31] - The transaction volume in first, second, and third-tier cities has shown varying degrees of weakness [29][31] Group 4: Demand and Consumption - Freight volumes have decreased, but port cargo throughput remains higher than the same period last year [34] - Passenger traffic remains high, with flight operations slightly above last year's levels [38] - Movie attendance and box office revenues are significantly higher than in previous years, while automobile sales have seen a decline [42][45] Group 5: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices have generally increased, with notable rises in fruits, vegetables, and eggs, while pork prices have slightly decreased [55][58] - Industrial product prices have shown a significant decline, particularly in energy and chemical sectors [60][62]