期货研究报告 2026年01月26日 周报 原油期货：地缘风险仍在、油价偏强 师秀明 投资咨询从业资格号：F0255552 shixiuming@nzfco.com 报告导读： | 原油 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 周度环比变化率 | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SC原油期货 | 元/桶 | 441.90 | 438.80 | 3.10 | 0.71% | 日度 | | 阿曼原油现货 | 美元/桶 | 62.63 | 62.79 | -0.16 | -0.25% | 日度 | | 布伦特原油期货 | 美元/桶 | 66.29 | 64.20 | 2.09 | 3.26% | 日度 | | WTI原油期货 | 美元/桶 | 61.29 | 59.44 | 1.85 | 3.11% | 日度 | | 美国原油产量 | 千桶/日 | 13580 | 13753 | -173 | -1.26% | 周度 | | 美国原油库存 | 千桶 | 426049 | 422477 | 3572 | 0.85% | 周度 | ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 周一，燃料油跳空高开高走，日内最大达涨幅超5%，相关能化品一并走强。美国总统特朗普22日表 示，一支"庞大舰队"正在前往中东地区海域。美国福克斯新闻网此前报道，随着与伊朗紧张关系升级， 美国正在向中东地区增派兵力，其中包括至少一艘航空母舰，同时将在该地区部署更多的导弹防御系 统。据参考消息网援引路透社1月23日报道，一名伊朗高级官员23日说，伊朗将把任何袭击都当作"针对 我们的全面战争"对待。作为全球高硫燃料油主要出口地，中东局势升温再次引发市场供应端的担忧情 绪，燃料油价格随之大涨，短期继续关注伊朗局势进展。 基本面来看，供应方面，哈萨克斯坦部分油田由于电力分配系统出现问题后暂停生产，预计时间持续1- 2周，这将减少通过里海管道联盟的原油出口。需求方面，IEA最新月报将全球原油石油需求上调了19.4 万桶/日至93万桶/日，预计2026年全年全球原油市场过剩量约为370万桶/日，供应过剩程度略有收窄。 国内炼厂需求方面，我国1月高硫燃料油进口量预计在80万吨，同比下降28万吨。当前市场缺乏单边趋 势的强劲驱动，供应充足和高库存的现实，限制了油 ...

Group 1 - India's procurement of Russian oil has decreased significantly, with its ranking among Russian oil buyers dropping to third place behind Turkey by December 2025 [1] - The sanctions imposed by Western countries on Russia aim to cut off its main revenue sources, putting pressure on the Putin regime, while China has emerged as a key buyer of Russian oil at historically low prices [1][3] - India's previous imports of Russian oil accounted for 40% of its total oil imports, but recent developments indicate a sudden reduction in purchases, surprising the market [1][3] Group 2 - The demand for Russian Ural crude oil from India has plummeted, leading to a surge in Russian oil inventories to 13 million barrels, the highest in nearly a decade, creating significant economic pressure on Russia [3] - Despite the apparent reduction in oil transactions, Indian companies are still seeking Russian oil supplies, indicating that the decrease may be due to compliance issues rather than a complete withdrawal from Russian partnerships [3][5] - China's imports of Ural crude oil have increased to 400,000 barrels per day, filling the gap left by India's reduced demand and providing essential economic support to Russia [3][5] Group 3 - The attractiveness of low-priced Ural crude oil for China, especially after significant price reductions, presents a "bargain" opportunity for meeting its energy needs [5] - The restructuring of Russia's oil export supply chain is underway, with new exporters emerging to adapt to U.S. sanctions, and India is keen to maintain its energy cooperation with Russia amid strong domestic demand [5][7] - India's strategy to reduce dependence on Russian oil reflects a tactical adjustment rather than a complete abandonment, suggesting potential for renewed cooperation in the future as global economic conditions evolve [7]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4132.61 points, down 0.09%, with a trading volume of 14,518.60 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14,316.64 points, down 0.85%, with a trading volume of 17,963.43 billion yuan [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 3,319.15 points, down 0.91%, with a trading volume of 8,384.91 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The gold sector showed strong performance, with stocks such as Hunan Gold, Shengda Resources, Sichuan Gold, and China Gold hitting the daily limit [1] - Resource sectors including oil, coal, and gas were active, with stocks like Heshun Petroleum and Intercontinental Oil & Gas also reaching the daily limit [1] - The virus prevention concept saw a surge, with stocks like Maike Biology, Kaipu Biology, Zhijiang Biology, and Hualan Vaccine hitting the daily limit [1] - Other sectors with notable gains included mining, small metals, non-ferrous metals, insurance, fertilizers, securities, and titanium dioxide [1] - Sectors that experienced declines included electric machinery, automotive parts, semiconductors, communication equipment, satellite internet, robotic actuators, and commercial aerospace [1]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index slightly up by 0.06% to 26,765.52, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell by 0.15% to 9,147.21, and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped significantly by 1.24% to 5,725.99 [1][2]. Sector Performance - Technology stocks experienced a downward trend, with major players like XPeng Motors down over 4%, NIO, Li Auto, SMIC, Kuaishou, and Baidu down over 3%, while Tencent and JD.com showed slight gains [4]. - Precious metals surged, with international gold prices surpassing $5,100 per ounce, leading to a significant rise in gold and silver stocks, notably China Silver Group which increased by over 19% [7][8]. - Energy stocks, including oil and coal, performed well, with China National Offshore Oil Corporation rising over 4% and China Shenhua Energy increasing by over 4% [9][10]. - The commercial aerospace sector faced declines, with Asia Pacific Satellite down over 11% and other related stocks following suit [6]. Individual Stock Movements - Notable gainers included China Silver Group (+19.12%), Shenglong International (+14.46%), and China Shenhua Energy (+4.42%) [11][12]. - Conversely, significant losers included Asia Pacific Satellite (-17.53%) and XPeng Motors (-4.17%) [5][6]. Investment Insights - Long-term outlook for energy stocks remains positive due to geopolitical uncertainties and rising oil demand forecasts, with IEA projecting an increase of 930,000 barrels per day in global oil demand by 2026 [9][10]. - The coal sector is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance over the next 3-5 years, with high-quality coal companies showing strong cash flow and dividend potential [10]. Capital Movements - Southbound funds recorded a net sell of HKD 826 million, with the majority coming from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock connect [16]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the Hong Kong market has the potential for valuation recovery and sentiment improvement, although upward momentum may be constrained by high global interest rates and limited expectations for rate cuts [18].

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index up by 0.06% closing at 26,765.52 points, while the Tech Index fell by 1.24% to 5,725.99 points, and the National Enterprises Index decreased by 0.15% to 9,147.21 points [1][2]. Sector Performance - Traditional cyclical stocks such as oil, coal, and non-ferrous metals performed strongly, indicating a shift in market focus towards value assets. In contrast, previously popular sectors like commercial aerospace and brain-computer interface technologies experienced a pullback [2][11]. Oil Sector - Oil stocks saw significant gains, with China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) rising by 4.01%, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) increasing by 3.68%, and China Oilfield Services Limited up by 3.23%. This strength is attributed to a recent extreme cold wave in North America, which caused a 63% spike in U.S. natural gas prices from January 20 to 22, subsequently boosting prices of light hydrocarbons and supporting domestic petrochemical prices [4][5]. Coal Sector - Coal stocks also showed robust performance, with Mongolian Energy up by 5.80%, China Shenhua Energy rising by 4.42%, and China Qinfa up by 3.74%. The increase in coal prices is linked to heightened demand due to cold weather, with daily coal output from the Bohai Rim ports averaging 1.682 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 14.2 tons or 9.19% [6][7]. Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - Non-ferrous metal stocks were active, with Rusal rising by 12.31%, China Nonferrous Mining increasing by 9.87%, and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining up by 7.44%. Citigroup's report indicates a structural bull market in aluminum, predicting a 61,000-ton structural deficit by early 2026 and raising the price target for aluminum from $2,950 to $3,400 per ton [8][9]. Gold Market - Morgan Stanley's research indicates that gold prices have surpassed their forecast of $4,750 per ounce for the second half of the year, with expectations of further increases due to geopolitical risks, central bank purchases, and ETF inflows. A bullish scenario suggests a target price of $5,700 per ounce for the second half [10]. Weakness in Tech Sectors - Commercial aerospace stocks faced collective declines, with Asia Pacific Satellite down by 11.53%, Goldwind Technology down by 7.14%, and JunDa Co. down by 6.56%. This adjustment is attributed to short-term profit-taking pressures [11]. Brain-computer interface stocks also showed weakness, with Nanjing Panda Electronics down by 6.15% and Brainstorming Technology down by 5.35%, partly due to a recent share placement announcement [13][14]. Individual Stock Movements - Zhizhuo (02513.HK) surged by 13.02% following a significant increase in subscription service users after the launch of its flagship model GLM-4.7, indicating strong market interest in its AI capabilities [15]. Lao Pu Gold (06181.HK) rose by 7.80% due to increased customer traffic during a promotional event, with expectations of substantial revenue growth during the upcoming Spring Festival [16].

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index slightly up by 0.06% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down by 0.15% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index experienced a significant decline, dropping by 1.24% throughout the day [1] Sector Performance - Major technology stocks mostly declined, with Baidu down over 3%, Xiaomi down 2.8%, and Alibaba and Meituan also experiencing losses, while Tencent and JD.com saw gains [1] - Precious metals prices surged due to a weak US dollar, with international gold prices surpassing $5,100 per ounce, leading to a strong performance in gold and non-ferrous resource stocks [1] - China Silver Group saw a remarkable increase of over 19%, while China Nonferrous Mining rose nearly 10%, and several other gold stocks reached historical highs [1] - Energy sector stocks, including oil and coal, performed actively, with CNOOC rising over 4% to set a new high [1] Declining Sectors - Commercial aviation, military, and photovoltaic stocks faced notable declines, with GCL-Poly Energy dropping 13.5% and AVIC Aerospace falling over 5% [1] - Leading power equipment stocks corrected, with Goldwind Technology down over 7% [1] - Apple-related stocks, automotive stocks, new consumer concept stocks, and lithium battery stocks also experienced downward trends [1]

利比亚 经济监测 在公共财务管理中建立问责 制和透明度的路径 公开披露已获授权 2025年秋季 公开披露已获授权 公开披露已获授权 公开披露已获授权 中东、北非、阿富汗和巴基斯坦（MENAAP）地区 2025年秋季 设定公共财政管理中的问责与透明路径 利比亚经济监测 © 2025 世界复兴银行 / 世界银行 1818 H街西北 华盛顿特区 20433 电话：202-473-1000 互联网：www.worldbank.org 这项工作是世界银行工作人员的成果，并得到了外部贡献。这项工作中表达的调查结果、解释和结论不一定反映世界银行的看法 、其执行董事会或它们所代表的政府的观点。 世界银行不保证本作品中包含的数据的准确性、完整性或时效性，也不对信息中出现的任何错误、遗漏或差异承担责任，或对使 用或未能使用所提供的信息、方法、程序或结论承担责任。本作品中任何地图上显示的边界、颜色、面值和其他信息，均不意味 着世界银行对任何领土的法律地位作出任何判断，也不意味着对这样或那样的边界给予认可或接受。 世界银行的联系，所有这些都专门保留。 本条款中任何内容均不构成或被视为对特权和豁免的限制或放弃 本作品中包含的材料受版权 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Bessent, issued a warning about a potential 500% tariff on countries purchasing Russian oil, indicating that President Trump can impose this without Senate approval [3][5][7] - This tariff proposal traces back to a sanctions bill introduced by Senator Graham, which allows for such high tariffs on countries violating U.S. sanctions against Russia [5][7] - Bessent's announcement serves as a warning to global nations to avoid crossing U.S. "red lines," emphasizing Trump's authority and the lack of congressional constraints on his power [3][7] Group 2 - Concurrently, U.S. and Russian presidential envoys held a constructive meeting in Davos, indicating a shift in Trump's approach towards Russia, showing a willingness to repair relations [10][12] - Despite the positive diplomatic engagement, the warning against purchasing Russian oil appears contradictory, suggesting a strategy to increase leverage in negotiations with Russia [12][14] - The likelihood of actually imposing a 500% tariff is considered low, as it could provoke significant backlash from other nations [14]

1月24日凌晨，纽约商品交易所3月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨1.71美元，收于每桶61.07美元，涨幅为 2.88%。 中国经济网北京1月26日讯今日，上海国际能源交易中心日间盘原油期货主力合约震荡收高，成交放 大，持仓增加。主力2603合约收报457.3元，涨4.07%或17.9元;成交量为136743手;持仓为52435手，日盘 持仓增加7140手。 ...