各位看官老爷，麻烦右上角点击一下 "关注"，精彩内容不错过，方便随时查看。 文|面包夹知识 阿拉斯加的夏季，注定不同寻常。8月15日， 美国总统特朗普和俄罗斯总统普京在安克雷奇举行了近三小时的闭门会谈。 就在这场全球瞩目的会晤结束后，特朗普做出了一项让外界意想不到的表态： 美国暂时不会因为中国购买俄罗斯石油而加征关税。 要知道，就在会晤之前，特朗普政府还不断放风， 威胁要对中国和印度等俄罗斯石油买家祭出所谓的"次级关税"。 编辑|面包夹知识 «——【·前言·】——» 这种制裁的力度被媒体解读为"杀伤力最强"的选项，一旦实施，将可能对中俄两国经济造成沉重打击。然而， 随着美俄首脑的握手，特朗普的态度却骤然 转变。 特朗普甚至在接受采访时声称，这次会晤的情况"非常顺利"，自己愿意"暂时搁置"对中国的关税惩罚。但他话锋一转，又留下一句意味深长的补充， "两三 周后可能不得不考虑"。 为什么特朗普会在美俄会晤后迅速调整政策？这种"暂停制裁"的决定，究竟是短暂的缓和，还是新的博弈开始？而中国继续购买俄罗斯石油，美国未来真的 会保持克制吗？ «——【·暂停制裁背后的考量·】——» 就在数周前，特朗普还在白宫公开放话， 如 ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the U.S. Treasury Secretary's proposal for a 200% tariff on China, which was discussed during the G7 summit in Canada, but faced significant resistance from European leaders [3][4][6] - The proposal was intended to penalize countries purchasing Russian energy, but its primary target was China, aiming to indirectly suppress Chinese exports [6][7] - European countries, including Germany, France, and Italy, expressed their refusal to support the proposal due to their economic reliance on China, with annual trade exceeding $800 billion [9] Group 2 - The potential implementation of such high tariffs could lead to a spike in Europe's inflation rate, which is currently at 4.2%, possibly rising to double digits [9] - The U.S. strategy of linking the Russia-Ukraine conflict with trade issues against China has been perceived as a miscalculation by European leaders, who view it as an unnecessary provocation [9][10] - The U.S. and Europe are unlikely to reach a consensus on the tariff issue, with Europe likely to maintain good trade relations with China despite verbal support for the U.S. [11] Group 3 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary's insistence on European participation in sanctions against China reflects a desire to showcase Western unity, especially ahead of a meeting between Trump and Putin [10] - The ongoing tensions highlight a broader economic dilemma, where the U.S. seeks to leverage Europe while Europe resists becoming an economic scapegoat [10][11] - Long-term implications suggest that unilateral U.S. sanctions could drive countries towards alternative economic systems, potentially diminishing reliance on the dollar [11]

特朗普与普京将于当地时间15日在美国阿拉斯加州最大城市安克雷奇举行会晤。俄罗斯总统助理乌沙科夫14日称，双方会晤的主要部分将在安克雷奇市 埃尔门多夫-理查德森联合军事基地举行。此次会晤前景如何？对俄乌战场将造成什么样的影响？ 0:00 / 1:50 俄欧乌在领土问题上仍坚持各自固有立场 中国社科院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所研究员 张弘：在美俄峰会举行之前，欧洲、乌克兰和特朗普政府举行的会议透露许多重要信息。首先，欧洲和乌克 兰仍然坚持冻结冲突，反对任何形式的领土换和平，也不同意俄罗斯提出的领土交换方案。这显示出他们在领土问题上仍然坚持固有的立场，只承认俄乌实 际控制线，却不承认俄罗斯对新领土的所有权。 美仍有可能对俄实施极端的关税制裁 中国社科院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所研究员 张弘：显然，欧洲、乌克兰、美国以及俄罗斯在俄乌和平问题上分歧仍然十分严重——欧洲希望能够通过与 美国的对话，影响特朗普政府，希望特朗普政府在谈判中加大对俄罗斯的施压力度，以促成有利于欧洲和乌克兰的方案。总而言之，短期之内要想实现重大 的和平突破，有很大的难度。 中国社科院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所研究员 张弘：其次，特朗普政府透露出仍然有可能对俄实施关 ...

此次会晤前景如何？对俄乌战场将造成什么样的影响？ 特朗普与普京将于当地时间15日在美国阿拉斯加州最大城市安克雷奇举行会晤。俄罗斯总统助理乌沙科 夫14日称，双方会晤的主要部分将在安克雷奇市埃尔门多夫-理查德森联合军事基地举行。此次会晤前 景如何？对俄乌战场将造成什么样的影响？ 中国社科院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所研究员 张弘：显然，欧洲、乌克兰、美国以及俄罗斯在俄乌和平问 题上分歧仍然十分严重——欧洲希望能够通过与美国的对话，影响特朗普政府，希望特朗普政府在谈判 中加大对俄罗斯的施压力度，以促成有利于欧洲和乌克兰的方案。总而言之，短期之内要想实现重大的 和平突破，有很大的难度。 美仍有可能对俄实施极端的关税制裁 中国社科院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所研究员 张弘：其次，特朗普政府透露出仍然有可能对俄实施关税制 裁。特朗普表示，如果美俄就俄乌停火不能达成一致的话，美国仍然有可能对俄罗斯的能源实施极端的 关税制裁，这有可能重创俄罗斯的经济。美国希望在俄乌和平没有达成之前，对俄罗斯保持较高的压 力，以促成俄乌停火。 乌克兰欧洲仍坚持要求安全保障 中国社科院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所研究员 张弘：第三，乌克兰和欧洲仍然坚持有安全保障的和 ...

特朗普的关税大棒向多国接连砸下，原本以为印度会成为第一个对美国妥协的国家，结果印度还是唯一一个支棱起来的国家。 这其实也不难理解，从美国加征关税的那一刻，莫迪已经别无退路。特朗普要求莫迪完全放开印度市场，尤其是农业相关领域，这可以说是直指印度经济死 穴，更是要毁了莫迪上位的基石。 印度近半人口从事农业相关工作，一旦完全放开市场，0关税让美国农产品进入印度市场。在美国成熟工业体系下庄园农场，将对印度农业市场造成毁灭性 冲击，这会对印度结构单薄的经济体系造成沉重打击。 印度的反抗让特朗普恼羞成怒，以印同俄贸易为由，加征二级关税，送去罚单，更是在公开场合大骂印度是个"死亡经济体"。 7月末，特朗普在社交平台上表态，印度和俄罗斯一样，都是"死亡经济体"，我不在乎他们怎么做，我们和印度基本没什么生意。 其实这也不能怪特朗普，印度仗着自己是美国印太战略的重要支撑点，不仅有着巨大的对美贸易顺差，还一直在私底下搞些小动作，让美对俄的制裁方案成 为一张废纸。在中国举起反关税大旗后，跟在后面和美国叫板，美国能忍，但特朗普忍不了。 当然，印度政府也出台了一些扶持性政策，比如为了保护本国工业，设置高额关税。但也正是因为如此，招来了特 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump threatens to significantly increase tariffs on India due to India's purchase of Russian oil, which may lead to significant changes in US - India relations and have an impact on the complex relations among India, Pakistan, Russia, and China [7][8]. - For the egg sector, in July, the laying - hen inventory continued to increase, and the supply of small - sized eggs kept rising. Although the market has been trading on the logic of price increase in the peak season since July, the spot performance has repeatedly fallen short of expectations. With the arrival of the peak season in August, the spot price declined instead of rising over the weekend, and the near - month contracts dropped significantly after entering the delivery month, pulling down the pricing of far - month contracts. Given the high inventory of laying hens and eggs, the spot price remains under pressure. However, the peak - season contracts on the futures market have reached the lowest price since listing. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of old - hen culling, and short positions should be held with caution [10]. - Regarding the stock index futures, there is a higher probability of the market rising after a period of oscillation. Recently, the index has shown a certain degree of correction. Historically, the turning points of bull markets in similar macro - environments were mainly due to two factors: policy shifting from stable growth to structural adjustment and intensified external disturbances. Currently, the Politburo meeting has reduced the intensity of stable - growth policies, and it is necessary to continuously monitor whether there will be continuous efforts in structural adjustment. Although the future direction between China and the US is somewhat uncertain as the 90 - day suspension period is approaching, the probability of a significant shift to a hawkish stance is not high. If the internal and external factors do not change fundamentally, considering the current loose liquidity and positive market expectations, the market is likely to continue to rise after the recent consolidation. If all factors turn negative, the market may continue to adjust in this area for a longer time [11]. - In the crude oil market, the short - term price is dominated by macro - pessimistic sentiment, while the supply - demand situation is gradually strengthening. Last Friday, the US non - farm payrolls data was significantly lower than expected, causing crude oil to decline in resonance with other major assets, and the gold - oil ratio strengthened significantly. In the short term, attention should be paid to the impact of the market's pricing of the US and European recessions on oil prices. Looking at the micro - supply - demand situation in the crude oil market, positive factors are gradually accumulating. For example, due to the approaching US sanctions, Russia's Urals crude oil exports may shrink as India's purchases decline; Iran's actual external supply is still decreasing; the export increase of OPEC + is still significantly lower than its production increase, and the apparent production increase in July was also lower than expected; there is a risk of a decline in US shale oil production. Overall, after the recent macro - pessimistic sentiment fades, there is still a chance for the oil price to reach $80 per barrel (about 580 - 600 yuan per barrel in the domestic market) in the third quarter. In terms of strategy, priority should be given to the positive spread trading opportunities of the domestic SC crude oil futures, and previous long positions can be held as appropriate [13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trump's Tariff Threats - Trump threatens to significantly increase tariffs on India because India buys a large amount of Russian oil and resells most of it on the open market for profit. Previously, he also threatened to impose additional punitive tariffs on India. The situation may lead to significant changes in US - India relations and have an impact on the complex relations among multiple countries [7][8]. 3.2 Sector - Specific Analysis 3.2.1 Egg Sector - In July, the inventory of laying hens continued to increase, and the supply of small - sized eggs kept rising, indicating a loose supply of laying hens. The market's expectation of price increase in the peak season has not been fulfilled, and the spot price declined in August. With high inventory, the spot price is under pressure, and attention should be paid to the culling of old hens [10]. 3.2.2 Stock Index Futures - There is a high probability of the market rising after oscillation. The current macro - environment and policy trends need to be continuously monitored. If the internal and external factors remain stable, the market is likely to rise; otherwise, it may continue to adjust [11]. 3.2.3 Crude Oil Sector - Short - term price is affected by macro - pessimistic sentiment, while the supply - demand situation is improving. Positive factors in the supply - demand side are accumulating, and there is a chance for the oil price to rise in the third quarter. Priority should be given to positive spread trading opportunities [13]. 3.2.4 Other Commodity Sectors - A series of commodity sectors, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products, are analyzed in the report, with specific trends and trading suggestions provided for each sector. For example, gold shows a trend affected by the weak non - farm payrolls data, copper is supported by strong spot prices, and zinc is in a range - bound oscillation [15][18][20].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. President Trump has set a 10-day deadline for Russia to make progress towards a peace agreement with Ukraine, threatening new sanctions if not met [1][2] Oil Price Movement - On July 29, light crude oil futures for September delivery rose by $2.50 to $69.21 per barrel, a 3.75% increase, while Brent crude futures increased by $2.47 to $72.51 per barrel, a 3.53% rise [1] - Following the overnight surge of over 3%, oil prices experienced a slight pullback during the Asian trading session on July 30 [1] Geopolitical Tensions - Trump's announcement of potential new tariffs, including a 100% tariff on Russian oil, has surprised analysts and could tighten Russia's supply to global markets [2][3] - The geopolitical tension is causing oil futures to attempt to break out of a consolidation phase [2] Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - Prior to Trump's comments, oil prices were already on the rise due to signs of inventory tightening and strong summer demand in the Northern Hemisphere [4] - The WTI crude oil futures price broke above the 200-day moving average of approximately $68.17 per barrel, leading to a technical buying surge [4] - Commodity trading advisors increased their bullish positions on WTI crude, with net long positions rising to 55% on July 29 from 18% short positions on July 28 [4] Trade Agreements and Their Impact - The trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU has provided support for oil prices, alleviating concerns over a potential trade war [4] - Optimism exists around these trade agreements, which, while not perfect, are seen as better than the worst-case scenarios [4] Potential Impact of Sanctions on Major Buyers - The proposed "secondary tariffs" on countries purchasing Russian oil could significantly impact markets, particularly for China and India, the largest buyers of Russian oil [5] - The U.S. has warned China about potential massive tariffs if it continues to buy Russian oil, while India has indicated compliance with secondary sanctions [5] - The risk of Russia retaliating by cutting off major oil pipelines could further pressure oil prices [5]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump announced a potential increase in tariffs on Russia if a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine is not reached within 10 days, indicating a strong stance on sanctions against Russia [1] Group 1: Tariff Implications - The proposed tariffs could significantly impact Russia, although the actual effect remains uncertain [1] - The announcement of the tariff increase comes amid threats of secondary sanctions on Russian oil [1] Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, WTI crude oil futures rose by over $0.60, reaching a daily high of $68.45, with an overall increase exceeding 2.5% for the day [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is President Trump's announcement regarding potential tariffs on Russia if a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine is not reached within 10 days [2] - Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on Russia's oil, which may or may not have an impact on the country [2] - The market response to the tariff threat saw WTI crude oil futures rise over $0.60, reaching a daily high of $68.45, with an overall increase of more than 2.5% [3] Group 2 - Despite the tariff threat, there has been no response from Russia as of yet [3] - The sentiment in the market indicates that if sanctions are imposed on Russia, there is little concern regarding oil prices [3]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump announced a potential increase in tariffs on Russia if a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine is not reached within 10 days, indicating a significant shift in U.S. trade policy towards Russia [1] Group 1: Tariff Implications - The proposed tariffs could have a direct impact on Russia's economy, particularly in the oil sector, although the actual effect remains uncertain [1] - The announcement of tariffs has led to a short-term increase in WTI crude oil futures, which rose over $0.60 to a daily high of $68.45, reflecting a broader market response to geopolitical tensions [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The overall increase in WTI crude oil prices expanded to over 2.5% for the day, indicating heightened market volatility and investor sentiment in response to the news [1]