TMT｜2026 年度科技投资展望 20251230 2025 年科技领域的发展可以分为几个关键阶段。1 月至 3 月，我们提出了春 季科技进攻的思路，并在 1 月建议进行科技抄底。3 月时，我们对科技年报和 一季报进行了展望。在 4 月市场低迷期间，我们再次明确了科技方向作为进攻 方向的重要性。到 9 月份，我们对 AI 产业动态进行了分析，并展望了四季度行 情，坚定了对 AI 投资的信心。 对于 2026 年的科技投资，您有哪些核心观点和判断？ 展望 2026 年，我们认为通信、电子、计算机和传媒四个行业将位于涨幅榜的 前 1/3，甚至有可能进入前 10 名。特别是通信板块，有望位于涨幅榜的前五名。 这一判断基于全球 AI PC 产业变革带来的基础设施建设高潮，以及国内外算力 需求持续增长。 具体来说，海外算力板块在 2026 年的业绩增速预计为 AI 领域 2026 年预计出现大模型大战，各大厂商争夺流量。流量分配方 式可能变化，生成式引擎优化（GEO）兴起，多模态 AI 应用带来娱乐方 式变革。 商业航天及太空算力发展超预期，通过部署在晨昏轨道上的卫星，可以 24 小时不间断地接收太阳能，从而显著提高 ...

Core Viewpoint - The resilience of Huaqiangbei, known as "China's first electronics street," continues to evolve amidst various market challenges and opportunities, showcasing the adaptability of the Chinese supply chain [2][27]. Group 1: Robotics Market - In early 2025, the popularity of humanoid robots surged, leading to rental prices skyrocketing to 20,000 yuan per day [3]. - By December 2025, the rental market for humanoid robots had collapsed, with rental prices dropping over 70% from their peak, and rental shops disappearing from the market [6][5]. - Experts suggest that the fluctuations in the humanoid robot rental market reflect a transition from speculative hype to rational application, indicating a need for sustainable use cases in the industry [6][7]. Group 2: Tariff Impact - Following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs by the U.S. in April 2025, many merchants in Huaqiangbei reported stability due to diversified market strategies that mitigated risks from tariff barriers [8][11]. - The market has seen a shift towards attracting international customers, with many finding products in Huaqiangbei to be significantly cheaper than in their home countries [9][10]. Group 3: Charging Battery Market - A regulatory crackdown in July 2025 led to the removal of non-3C certified charging batteries from the market, resulting in a price increase for compliant products [14][15]. - The compliance shift has positioned safety and certification as new competitive advantages for Huaqiangbei's charging battery market, enhancing brand value [15]. Group 4: Memory Products - The global storage market has experienced a "super cycle," with prices for memory products doubling since April 2025, driven by high demand from AI data centers [16][19]. - The price of DDR4 memory has surged from over 100 yuan to 300-400 yuan, with expectations that prices will remain high into 2026 due to ongoing demand [17][19]. Group 5: AI Glasses Market - 2025 marked significant growth in the AI glasses market, with numerous brands entering the space, leading to a "white mirror war" in Huaqiangbei, where affordable AI glasses are being produced [20][22]. - The emergence of low-cost AI glasses is expected to lower entry barriers for consumers, fostering market education and user adoption [22]. Group 6: AI Mobile Phones - The introduction of the "Doubao AI phone" by ByteDance and ZTE faced challenges, with limited availability in Huaqiangbei, highlighting the difficulties of experimental products in gaining traction [24][26]. - The situation reflects the broader challenges faced by AI mobile phones, which must overcome issues related to technology maturity, ecosystem collaboration, and user acceptance to achieve mass production [26]. Group 7: Overall Resilience - Huaqiangbei's ability to adapt to external pressures and market changes illustrates the strength of the Chinese supply chain, characterized by a dynamic response network and collaborative ecosystem among merchants [27][28]. - The ongoing evolution of Huaqiangbei demonstrates that resilience is not merely about enduring challenges but also about leveraging them to enhance operational efficiency and market positioning [27].

Market Overview - In 2025, the A-share market experienced a structural "small bull" market, with 4,110 out of 5,176 stocks showing positive growth, and 523 stocks rising over 100% [1] - However, 40 stocks fell over 30%, with 7 stocks declining more than 40% [1] Worst Performing Stocks - The largest decline was seen in Shijing Technology, which dropped 50.99% in 2025, primarily due to a significant decrease in completed orders after entering the photovoltaic sector [3] - Kangle Weishi ranked second with a decline of 49.97%, continuing to face losses since 2013, with a net profit loss of 2.29 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [3][4] - Longda Meishi experienced a 48.11% drop, affected by a prolonged downturn in the pig cycle and intensified competition in the prepared food sector [3] Financial Performance - Kangle Weishi reported a revenue of 1.2763 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 106.53%, but still faced a net profit loss of 2.29 billion yuan [4] - The food and beverage sector saw a 9.69% decline in 2025, marking its fifth consecutive year of losses, with a cumulative drop of over 50% since the peak in 2021 [8][10] Industry Trends - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector showed signs of recovery in 2025, with an 11.94% increase, ending a four-year downtrend [10] - The food and beverage sector is expected to benefit from macro policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, with potential recovery in the white liquor and pre-processed food segments [10][11]

A股2025年本周三收官，沪指以红盘报收。截至收盘，沪指上涨0.09%报3968.84点，深成指下跌 0.58%，科创50、创业板均下跌逾1%。回顾全年，沪指上涨18.4%，深成指上涨29.9%，科创50上涨 36%，创业板指数上涨49.6%。数据显示，全年近八成个股上涨，逾500只个股翻倍。展望2026年，大多 业内人士认为，市场反弹将延续，可重点关注科技股和消费股。 通信、有色、电子涨幅居前 2025年注定载入中国资本市场发展史册：A股总市值首破百万亿元大关，实现历史性体量跨越。市值规 模居全球第二，仅次于美股。 纵观全年，A股主要指数均在4月初触底后一路高歌猛进，沪指从年内低位3040点起步，一度冲破4000 点大关，全年涨幅接近20%，创出近6年来最佳年度表现。 从市场风格来看，成长股呈现领涨态势。AI算力、新能源、半导体等科技主线成为2025年市场核心驱 动力。业内认为，这一轮科技成长行情并非偶然，背后是政策、技术、资金三重力量的共振。政策底与 产业底的叠加，为科技企业营造"天时"；关键技术突破打破"卡脖子"困境，构建"地利"；全球资金再配 置下的"中国资产重估"，带来"人和"。 根据统计，从行业来 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the "Shenwan Hongyuan Gold Stock Portfolio" reflects the market outlook and style judgment for the upcoming month, showcasing the research team's capabilities and competitiveness in the market [1][11] - The previous portfolio showed a slight increase of 0.14% from December 1 to December 31, 2025, with the A-share portfolio averaging a 0.80% increase, while the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 Index rose by 2.06% and 2.28%, respectively [6][15] - Since the first release of the gold stock portfolio on March 28, 2017, the cumulative increase has reached 401.73%, with the A-share portfolio up by 293.13%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 Index by 271.65 and 260.01 percentage points, respectively [6][15] Group 2 - The strategy judgment for the current period maintains that the conditions supporting the spring market remain unchanged, with liquidity in the stock market being loose and upcoming events likely to boost risk appetite [14] - The report suggests focusing on cyclical Alpha and thematic rotation opportunities, particularly in basic chemicals and non-ferrous metals, as well as sectors like AI, commercial aerospace, and high-dividend strategies [14] - The top recommended stocks include "Iron Triangle" stocks: Hualu Hengsheng, Lingyi Technology, and CIMC Enric (Hong Kong), along with other stocks such as Xingfa Group, TBEA, Chifeng Gold, WuXi AppTec, China National Glass, Ping An Insurance (Hong Kong), and Alibaba-W (Hong Kong) [6][17][18] Group 3 - The report highlights the performance of the top ten gold stocks, with Hualu Hengsheng benefiting from favorable policies in the domestic chemical industry, and Lingyi Technology experiencing high growth in AI and robotics [17][20] - CIMC Enric is positioned to benefit from the shipbuilding cycle and clean energy equipment orders, while Xingfa Group has a solid base in phosphate and specialty chemicals [18][20] - Other notable stocks include WuXi AppTec, which is seeing strong global demand in the CXO industry, and Alibaba-W, which is accelerating its integration from data centers to application layers in AI [18][22]

Investment Strategy and Key Stock Portfolio - The report emphasizes the importance of enhancing macro governance effectiveness and maintaining a positive policy tone, with a combination of more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy expected to continue [4][9] - The focus is on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing investment, with recent policy adjustments such as the relaxation of housing purchase restrictions in Beijing and a reduction in the value-added tax rate for second-hand home sales [4][9] - The report highlights the potential for a pause in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the first half of the coming year, as recent U.S. GDP data exceeded expectations, driven by a rebound in personal consumption [10] Key Stock Recommendations - **Jinfa Technology (金发科技, 600143.SH)**: Positioned to transition from a comprehensive plastic leader to a high-end chemical materials platform, benefiting from strong demand in emerging industries [11][14] - **Hengli Petrochemical (恒力石化, 600346.SH)**: As a leading private refining enterprise, it is expected to benefit from a new cycle of refining prosperity due to its extensive production capacity and diversified product offerings [11][14] - **Satellite Chemical (卫星化学, 002648.SZ)**: Anticipated to enter a new growth phase with improved profitability in aromatics and polyester chains, supported by its cost control and market position [11][14] - **Huidi Technology (汇得科技, 603192.SH)**: Expected to maintain high-quality growth due to strong demand for polyurethane materials and a favorable cost environment [11][14] - **Aikodi (爱柯迪, 600933.SH)**: Positioned to benefit from the recovery of its robotics segment and potential contracts with Tesla, enhancing its growth prospects [11][14] - **TeBao Bio (特宝生物, 688278.SH)**: Anticipated to see significant growth driven by its core product and expanding R&D pipeline [11][14] - **New Dairy (新乳业, 002946.SZ)**: Expected to improve profitability through product innovation and a focus on low-temperature products [11][14] - **Zhongke Lanyun (中科蓝讯, 688332.SH)**: Positioned to benefit from AI-driven growth in the electronics sector, with a comprehensive product line [11][14] - **Hengxuan Technology (恒玄科技, 688608.SH)**: Focused on high-end SOC chips and AIOT applications, with strong competitive positioning [11][14] - **Jereh Group (杰瑞股份, 002353.SZ)**: Expected to see robust growth supported by its diversified business and significant orders in the natural gas sector [11][14] ETF Recommendations - **Southern CSI 1000 ETF (南方中证 1000ETF, 512100.OF)**: Notable growth of 29.27% year-to-date, tracking the CSI 1000 Index [15] - **E Fund CSI Artificial Intelligence Theme ETF (易方达中证人工智能主题, 159819.OF)**: Strong performance with a 70.29% increase year-to-date [15] - **Chemical ETF (化工 ETF, 159870.OF)**: Gained 43.01% year-to-date, reflecting the performance of the chemical industry [15] - **Huatai-PB CSI Major Consumption ETF (汇添富中证主要消费 ETF, 159928.OF)**: Slight decline of 2.40% year-to-date [15] - **Southern CSI Shenwan Nonferrous Metals ETF (南方中证申万有色金属 ETF, 512400.OF)**: Significant growth of 98.26% year-to-date [15]

Core Insights - The article highlights the strong performance of public funds in 2025, particularly those focused on technology and digital economy sectors, with many achieving returns exceeding 125% [2][5] - The leading fund, Yongying Technology Smart Selection A, achieved a remarkable return of 239.78%, significantly outpacing its competitors [2][3] Fund Performance - The top-performing funds are predominantly equity funds with a clear focus on technology themes, particularly artificial intelligence and digital economy [2][3] - The second and third positions are held by China Aviation Opportunity Navigation A and Hengyue Advantage Selection A, with returns of 176.65% and 153.31% respectively [2][3] Investment Strategies - Leading funds have concentrated their portfolios in sectors such as AI computing power, semiconductors, and digital economy, reflecting a strategic alignment with market trends [3][4] - Yongying Technology Smart Selection A's top holdings include major players in the communication and electronics sectors, indicating a focused investment strategy [3][4] Market Trends - The article notes a significant structural characteristic of the A-share market in 2025, termed the "technology bull," which has driven the performance of these funds [2][5] - Factors contributing to this trend include a surge in demand for AI infrastructure, a recovery in the semiconductor industry, and supportive domestic policies for digital economy development [5][6] Performance Sustainability - Despite high returns, there are concerns regarding the sustainability of such performance, as the market may not replicate these results in the future [7][8] - Analysts emphasize the need for fund managers to reassess the long-term value of their holdings in light of high valuation levels in certain tech sectors [8]

Core Viewpoint - The total cash dividends of Shenzhen Stock Exchange companies in 2025 exceeded 500 billion yuan, reflecting a steady increase in dividend frequency and providing substantial returns to investors [1]. Group 1: Dividend Growth and Trends - In 2025, Shenzhen companies distributed a total of 547.56 billion yuan in cash dividends, maintaining a level above 500 billion yuan. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the total dividends exceeded 2 trillion yuan, indicating a growing ecosystem of companies willing and able to distribute dividends [5]. - The trend of mid-term dividends is on the rise, with 533 companies distributing 132.93 billion yuan in mid-term dividends in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 25.98%. Nearly 60% of these companies had a payout ratio exceeding 20%, with 105 companies exceeding 50% [5]. - High dividend-yielding stocks are attracting long-term capital, with 166 companies having a dividend yield over 1%, and 108 companies exceeding 1.34%, providing stable cash flow returns [5]. Group 2: Sector Performance and Collaboration - In 2025, the main board had 965 companies distributing a total of 410.11 billion yuan in cash dividends, accounting for 74.90% of the total dividends in Shenzhen, while the growth rate of dividends in the ChiNext board was 8.41% [6]. - Leading companies in the consumer and financial sectors, as well as those in advanced manufacturing, digital economy, and green low-carbon fields, have set examples with significant dividend distributions [8]. Group 3: Policy and Governance Support - The new "National Nine Articles" policy strengthens the regulation of cash dividends and incentivizes high-quality dividend-paying companies. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has issued guidelines to encourage cash dividends and improve dividend levels [8]. - The overall profitability of Shenzhen companies is improving, with total operating income reaching 15.72 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.31%, and net profit of 903.02 billion yuan, up 9.69% [8]. - Companies are enhancing governance by revising articles of association and establishing long-term dividend plans, which increases transparency and predictability of dividends [8].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a strong rally in 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 18.41%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 29.87%, and the ChiNext Index by nearly 50% [1] - The market showed a broad-based increase, with 4107 out of 5176 stocks having positive returns, and 1382 stocks rising over 50%, indicating significant profit-making opportunities [1] - A total of 523 stocks doubled in value this year, a sixfold increase from last year's 90, representing 10% of all A-shares [1] Top Performing Stocks - The top-performing stock, Upwind New Materials, saw its price surge by over 1820%, reaching 127.37 CNY per share, driven by the humanoid robot trend and acquisition news [4] - Other notable stocks include Tianpu Co., which increased by 1645.35%, and Victory Energy, which rose by 488.86% [5] - The majority of doubling stocks were in the machinery, electronics, and power equipment sectors, with Upwind New Materials and Tianpu Co. being the only two stocks to achieve over 16 times their original value [1][5] Underperforming Stocks - The worst-performing stock, Shijin Technology, fell by 50.99% due to challenges in the photovoltaic sector, leading to significant financial losses [2][9] - Other stocks that experienced declines of over 40% include Kang Le Wei Shi, Longda Meishi, and Zhongbai Group [10] Industry Insights - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector had six companies among the top 20 performers, with a positive outlook on storage chip prices driven by AI demand [5] - The consumer sector showed signs of structural change, with emerging trends in emotional consumption and value-driven purchasing [11][12] - The new consumption direction is expected to focus on health, practicality, and emotional engagement, with significant policy support anticipated to boost consumer confidence [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the A-share market in 2026 will revolve around "structural transformation and confidence restoration," with a focus on technology investments and external demand recovery [3][4] - The report emphasizes a "systematic slow bull" market phase, suggesting a gradual upward trend in the market, with the Shanghai Composite Index expected to oscillate between the high point of February 2021 and the 0.809 quantile of 5178-2440 [9] - Investment strategies include focusing on four main lines: consumer services, sectors with growth potential like automotive and pharmaceuticals, traditional industries, and dividend-paying stocks such as banks and transportation [9] Group 2 - Policy risks are highlighted, particularly the impact of new public fund regulations on asset allocation, which may lead to a reallocation of equity fund performance benchmarks in the second half of 2026 [10][12] - Geopolitical risks are identified, with potential impacts from U.S. actions in Venezuela and Japan's political stance affecting market sentiment and inflation expectations [13][14] - Other risks include the pace of U.S. interest rate cuts, domestic economic recovery, and the performance of U.S. tech stocks, all of which could influence market dynamics in the second half of 2026 [15][17][20]