宏观 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 07 月 14 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陈江月 执业证书：S1030520060001 电话：0755-83199599-9055 邮箱：chenjy@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 政策预期抬升带动风险偏好上扬 [Table_ReportType] 宏观周报（7 月第 2 周） [Table_S 核心观点： ummary] 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 5) 风险提示：基本面超预期弱化、贸易谈判不及预期。 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] 数据来源：万得资讯 1) 权益：上周市场放量上涨。关税方面，美国宣布将关税暂缓 期延长至 8 月 1 日，短期不确定性减弱，降低关税突然大幅上 调的风险，带动亚太股市情绪回暖。基本面方面，CPI 小幅 好于预期，核心的支撑点在于，食品价格降幅小于季节性、油 价、金价上涨带动、促消费政策刺激下国内需求持续释放带动。 PPI 显著低于预期，主要的拖累在于，中下游制造行业受到关 税不确定性、618 促销、部分行业产能利用率偏低等影响，价 ...

A H 股市场周度观察（7 月第 2 周） 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2025 年 07 月 12 日 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email：zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 港股： 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 分析师：张文宇 【市场走势】本周市场整体上涨，小市值板块整体涨幅较大。而中大盘价值板块走势 相对承压。指数方面，本周中证 2000 指数上涨 2.32%，创业板指上涨 2.36%，而上 证 50 指数仅上涨 0.60%，涨幅相对较小。成交额方面，本周日均成交额达到 1.50 万 亿，环比增加 3.80%。 相关报告 1、《OBBB 法案通过后，特朗普开始 【深入剖析】本周市场整体上涨，其中地产链板块涨幅较大。房地产本周上涨 6.06%， 钢铁上涨 3.90%，建材上涨 3.07%，建筑上涨 2.71%。近期各大行业发文"反内卷"， 引发市场对于限产的预期，部分周期板块上周强势表现延续至本周。另一方面，近期 市场对于地产与城市更新的政策预期上升，带来地产链板块整体上涨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizes the acceleration of artificial intelligence (AI) innovation and development to strengthen the industrial foundation and enhance the supply of computing power, algorithms, and data [1] Group 1: AI Industry Development - The focus is on accelerating the innovation and development of the AI industry, particularly in key sectors such as equipment manufacturing, electronic information, raw materials, and consumer goods [1] - There is a call to refine application demands and mature solutions in these key industries to facilitate the integration of large models into the entire manufacturing process [1] Group 2: New Generation Intelligent Products - The development of new generation intelligent terminal products, such as humanoid robots, is highlighted as a priority [1] - Emphasis is placed on common technology research and foundational data construction, with a focus on continuous iteration and optimization in applications [1] Group 3: Standards and Testing - The need to accelerate the establishment of standards for data collection, cleaning, labeling, and product testing in the humanoid robot field is underscored [1]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June increased by 0.1% year-on-year, ending a four-month decline, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, indicating a mixed price trend in the economy [3][4][16] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7% year-on-year, marking a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month and reaching a 14-month high, reflecting improvements in supply-demand structures in certain industries [3][17] - The persistent low prices in the market are attributed to an oversupply situation, which could lead to a negative cycle affecting corporate expectations and investment, potentially dragging the economy into a "low inflation trap" [5][18] Group 2 - The decline in PPI is primarily driven by seasonal factors and the construction progress of infrastructure projects, along with an oversupply of raw materials like steel and cement, which has negatively impacted production material prices [4][17] - Key factors contributing to the current supply-demand imbalance include a decline in real estate investment, high tariff barriers affecting exports, and weak consumer income expectations leading to insufficient consumption willingness [4][18] - The overall economic recovery is influenced by a combination of supportive incremental policies and complex external environments, with expectations for CPI to show a trend of low-to-high throughout the year [8][10]

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】6 月通胀数据点评 从实际库存角度观察 PPI 事 项 6 月，CPI 同比上涨 0.1%，预期持平，前值下降 0.1%；核心 CPI 同比上涨 0.7%， 前值上涨 0.6%。PPI 同比下降 3.6%，预期下降 3.2%，前值下降 3.3%。 主要观点 6 月物价数据简评：四个要点 1、预计二季度 GDP 平减指数同比约-0.9%，一季度为-0.8%。二季度 CPI 同 比-0.03%，较一季度的-0.1%略有好转；不过，PPI 同比-3.2%，较一季度的-2.3% 有所回落，商品房售价同比也较一季度有所下行。预计二季度名义 GDP 增速 约 4.4%，一季度为 4.6%。 2、本月 PPI 低于预期，也弱于 PMI 价格和高频价格的指引，可能有两个因 素：第一，高频的原材料价格向 PPI 相关行业的传导需要时间，并且若在需求 偏弱背景下，企业的实际交易价格可能低于市场报价。第二，PMI 价格中并未 包含采矿和公用事业，而"绿电增加"导致本月电热供应 PPI 环比跌 0.9%。 3、CPI 环比-0.1%，重点关注：1）毕业季租房需求有所增加，房租上涨 0.1 ...

智通财经7月10日电，据"山西发布"消息，7月9日，山西省委常委会召开扩大会议，传达学习贯彻习近 平总书记考察山西重要讲话重要指示精神。会议强调，要坚定有序推进转型发展，坚定扛牢党中央交给 的建设国家资源型经济转型综合配套改革试验区战略任务，进一步统一思想，保持定力，加快在转型发 展中实现高质量发展、可持续发展。要抓好能源转型，坚决扛牢保障国家能源安全政治责任，纵深推进 能源革命综合改革试点，加快构建新型能源体系，高水平打造全国重要能源原材料基地。要扎实推进传 统产业转型升级，聚焦制造业振兴升级主攻方向，围绕发展新质生产力因地制宜布局新兴产业和未来产 业，强化教育科技人才支撑，逐步形成体现山西特点、具有比较优势的现代化产业体系。要坚持适度多 元发展，用好能源资源、历史文化等比较优势，着力营造市场化、法治化、国际化营商环境，充分激发 各类经营主体活力，推动我省资源优势更好转化为发展优势。 山西：加快构建新型能源体系 高水平打造全国重要能源原材料基地 ...

PPI环比下降0.4%，降幅与上月相同。董莉娟表示，影响PPI环比下降的主要原因，一是国内部分原材料 制造业价格季节性下行，二是绿电增加带动能源价格下降，三是一些出口占比较高的行业价格承压。 受环比下降及对比基数变动影响，PPI同比降幅比上月扩大0.3个百分点，但随着各项宏观政策加力实 施，部分行业供需关系有所改善，价格呈企稳回升态势。全国统一大市场建设纵深推进，带动部分行业 价格同比降幅收窄。6月份，汽柴油车整车制造、新能源车整车制造价格环比分别上涨0.5%和0.3%，同 比降幅比上月分别收窄1.9个和0.4个百分点。提振消费相关政策加力扩围，带动部分生活资料价格同比 回升。此外，新动能积聚，带动部分高技术行业价格同比上涨。 （文章来源：人民日报） 记者从国家统计局获悉：今年6月份，扩内需、促消费政策持续显效，居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比 由上月下降转为上涨0.1%；扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比继续回升，上涨0.7%。工业生产者出厂 价格指数（PPI）环比下降0.4%，同比下降3.6%。 CPI同比上涨0.1%，为连续下降4个月后转涨。国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟分析，这主要受工 业消费品价格有 ...

Group 1: PPI Trends - In June, the PPI decline expanded to 3.6%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from May, marking the lowest level since July 2023[6] - The decline in PPI is primarily driven by the midstream sector, with midstream raw material processing PPI dropping to -5.9% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.3 percentage points to the overall decline[10] - The capacity utilization rate in the raw material processing industry was significantly below the historical 50th percentile in Q1 2025, indicating potential overcapacity in the sector[10] Group 2: CPI Recovery - In June, the CPI unexpectedly turned positive, rising by 0.1% year-on-year, with both food and non-food CPI increasing by 0.1 percentage points[16] - The core CPI also saw a year-on-year increase, reaching 0.7%, the highest in 14 months, driven mainly by a recovery in consumer goods prices[16] - The recovery in CPI is attributed to three factors: a seasonal rise in vegetable prices, reduced energy drag from international oil prices, and a rebound in industrial consumer goods prices[20] Group 3: Risks and Outlook - Geopolitical risks and unexpected increases in international oil prices are significant risk factors that could impact future economic conditions[23] - Despite the CPI's recovery, there remains a risk of a phase-down if short-term factors dissipate, indicating that further support for CPI is needed[21]

Group 1: CPI Trends - In June, China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year, ending a four-month decline [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.7% year-on-year, marking a 14-month high [1][3] - The improvement in CPI indicates a positive signal of demand recovery in the market [1][3] Group 2: Factors Influencing CPI - The rise in CPI was supported by a rebound in industrial consumer goods prices, with the year-on-year decline narrowing from 1.0% to 0.5% [2] - International commodity price fluctuations contributed to significant increases in gold and platinum jewelry prices, which rose by 39.2% and 15.9% respectively, impacting CPI positively [2] - The increase in international oil prices, influenced by geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand, also played a role in lifting domestic energy prices [2][5] Group 3: Core CPI and Consumer Goods - Core CPI has shown a continuous increase for four months, rising from -0.1% in February to 0.7% in June [3] - Prices of durable consumer goods, such as entertainment products and household textiles, increased by 2.0% year-on-year [3] - The decline in automobile prices has slowed, with fuel and new energy vehicles seeing the smallest price drops in nearly two and a half years [3] Group 4: Food Prices and Their Impact - Food prices decreased by 0.3% year-on-year in June, with the decline narrowing compared to the previous month [4] - Fresh fruit prices rose by 6.1%, contributing approximately 0.12 percentage points to the CPI increase [4] - The price of beef turned positive after 28 months of decline, while pork prices fell by 8.5%, marking a shift after previous increases [4] Group 5: PPI Trends and Future Outlook - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pressure in the industrial sector [4][5] - Factors such as high temperatures and increased rainfall have affected construction progress, contributing to a decline in raw material prices [5] - Analysts expect that with continued macroeconomic policy support, domestic prices may gradually recover, leading to a mild rebound in CPI and a narrowing of PPI declines [6]

【导读】港交所：上半年总集资金额同比上升322%！5只新股齐上市首日均实现上涨 中国基金报记者 郭玟君 7月9日，恒生指数收跌1.06%，报23892.32点，恒生科技指数跌1.76%，恒生中国企业指 数跌1.28%。全日市场成交额为2339亿港元，较前一交易日的2132.89亿港元有所增加。南 向资金净买入额为92.56亿港元。 恒基地产跌8.64%，阿里巴巴跌3.83%，紫金矿业跌3.38%，领跌蓝筹。恒基地产大跌主要 是由于公司披露，拟发行本金总额为80亿港元的可换股债券。 | 序号 | 名称 | 代码 | 现价 | 消歧跌 | 涨跌幅 ^ | 成交额 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 恒县地产 | 0012 | 25.900 c | -2.450 | -8.64% | 11.58亿 | 15.88% | | 2 | 阿里巴巴-W | 9988 | 102.900 c | -4.100 | -3.83% | 139.51亿 | 26.98% | | 3 | 紫等处,不 | 2899 | 20.000 c | ...