Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the combination of policy tools aimed at both short-term economic stabilization and long-term high-quality development, addressing deep-seated structural contradictions while optimizing resource allocation mechanisms to respond to uncertainties with certainty in high-quality development [1][4] - The implementation of more proactive macroeconomic policies has effectively stabilized market expectations and boosted economic confidence, as evidenced by the continuous recovery in fiscal revenue growth and accelerated fiscal spending from January to April [1][2] - The fiscal revenue data shows a year-on-year increase of 1.9% in April for national general public budget revenue, with tax revenue also growing by 1.9%, indicating a marginal improvement in the tax revenue structure, particularly in the equipment manufacturing sector [2][3] Group 2 - Fiscal expenditure is highlighted as a crucial means to ensure people's livelihoods and promote socio-economic development, with a reported expenditure of 93,581 billion yuan from January to April, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.6% [3] - The increase in spending is particularly focused on social security, health, and education, which enhances the accessibility and equity of basic public services, thereby improving the overall well-being and happiness of the population [3] - The government's proactive measures include issuing long-term special bonds worth 1.3 trillion yuan and local government special bonds of 4.4 trillion yuan to support local investment, alongside other financial tools aimed at stabilizing capital market expectations and facilitating industrial policy implementation [4]

Economic Performance and Tax Revenue - China's economy is showing a positive trend, providing strong support for tax revenue growth [1][3] - In April, national tax revenue increased by 1.9%, marking the first month of positive growth after a period of decline [1][3] - The growth in tax revenue aligns with improved economic indicators such as industrial added value and retail sales [1] Industry-Specific Tax Revenue - Certain industries, particularly equipment manufacturing, are maintaining strong tax revenue performance, reflecting their robust development [2] - In April, the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry grew by 9.8%, contributing 55.9% to the growth of large-scale industry [2] - Tax policies supporting technological innovation and manufacturing have resulted in significant tax reductions and refunds, totaling 424.1 billion yuan in the first quarter [2] Macroeconomic Policy and Fiscal Measures - The central government is implementing more proactive macroeconomic policies to sustain economic recovery and tax revenue growth [3][4] - Fiscal spending in the first four months of the year has been the fastest since 2020, aimed at boosting economic activity and ensuring livelihood support [3] - Continued emphasis on expanding domestic demand and supporting new productive forces is crucial for maintaining economic stability [3] Fiscal and Tax System Reforms - To promote fiscal revenue growth, reforms in the fiscal and tax system are necessary, particularly to enhance local financial autonomy [4] - There is a focus on improving the efficiency of fund usage and policy effectiveness through better fiscal management practices [4] - The interaction between economic performance and tax revenue is emphasized, with a positive cycle expected as proactive policies are implemented [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the trends in China's public finance for the first four months of 2025, indicating a narrowing decline in public fiscal revenue and a significant increase in public fiscal expenditure, with a focus on the recovery of tax revenues and the role of non-tax revenues in supporting fiscal income [1][2][3]. Fiscal Revenue Summary - In the first four months of 2025, the total public fiscal revenue reached 80,616 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1]. - Central government revenue fell by 3.8%, but April saw a growth of 1.6%, marking the first month of positive growth this year [1]. - Local government revenue increased by 2.2%, consistent with the first quarter [1]. - Tax revenue totaled 65,556 billion yuan, down 2.1%, with April showing a 1.9% year-on-year increase, the first positive monthly growth this year [1][2]. - Non-tax revenue reached 15,060 billion yuan, up 7.7%, driven by asset activation [1]. Tax Revenue Breakdown - Key tax categories showed varied performance: domestic VAT and consumption tax grew by 1.8%, while personal income tax increased by 7.4% [2]. - Import VAT and consumption tax fell by 6.5% and 12.1%, respectively, while corporate income tax decreased by 3.1% [2]. - Manufacturing and service sectors exhibited strong tax revenue performance, with equipment manufacturing and digital economy sectors showing significant growth [2]. Fiscal Expenditure Summary - Total public fiscal expenditure reached 93,581 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, achieving 31.5% of the budget, the fastest pace since 2020 [3]. - Major expenditure areas included social security and employment (up 8.5%), education (up 7.4%), and health (up 3.9%) [3]. - Cultural, tourism, and media expenditures grew by 3.2%, while commercial services surged by 29.5% [3]. - The issuance of special government bonds has accelerated, supporting early project implementation and boosting demand [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the sustained high growth in tax revenue from the equipment manufacturing industry, which continues to play a significant supporting role in the economy [1] Group 2 - In the equipment manufacturing sector, tax revenue from railway, shipbuilding, aviation, and aerospace equipment manufacturing increased by 33.2% [1] - Tax revenue from computer and communication equipment manufacturing grew by 6.8% [1] Group 3 - In the service industry, the implementation of the old-for-new consumption policy has expanded, leading to a continuous release of demand in cultural and tourism consumption, with tax revenue in the cultural, sports, and entertainment sector increasing by 8.6% [1] - The rapid cultivation of new productivity and the positive momentum in the development of the digital economy resulted in a 12.2% increase in tax revenue from information transmission, software, and information technology services [1] - Tax revenue from scientific research and technical services grew by 12.7% [1]

Economic Overview - In Q1 2025, Liaoning's GDP reached 760.69 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.2% and rising from 18th to 16th in national rankings [1][3] - The province's economic growth is driven by industrial and consumer sectors, with the secondary industry increasing by 5.4% and high-tech manufacturing growing by 10.9% [2][3] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment in Liaoning grew by 7.8%, retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.7%, and exports rose by 10.5%, all surpassing national averages [3] - Manufacturing investment rose by 13.2%, accounting for 26.7% of total investment, with significant growth in aerospace and electronic equipment manufacturing [4] - Consumer spending was boosted by policies aimed at stimulating consumption, with notable increases in retail sales of new energy vehicles (22.5%) and smart wearable devices (13.1%) [4] Trade Performance - Liaoning's exports reached a record 95.11 billion yuan in Q1, growing by 10.5%, supported by a strong performance from private enterprises [5][6] - The province's trade with Belt and Road countries amounted to 102.65 billion yuan, marking a 5.9% increase, with significant growth in exports to ASEAN and Saudi Arabia [7] City Contributions - Shenyang and Dalian are key economic drivers, with Dalian's GDP at 228.03 billion yuan (6.2% growth) and Shenyang's at 212.18 billion yuan (4.6% growth) [8][11] - Dalian's industrial output increased by 10.9%, with strong growth in equipment manufacturing and high-tech sectors [9] - Shenyang's growth was bolstered by a significant increase in the cultural and tourism sectors, with revenues from cultural and entertainment industries rising by 19% [12][13]

非税持续回落（ 5.9% ， 1-2 月 11% ） ，据财政部介绍， （一季度非税增幅）主要是部分上市中央金融企业分红入库、地方多渠道盘活资产等带动。 此外， 企 业所得税与非税去年以来首现"脱钩"，或显示地方财政压力阶段性缓释 （详见 《 2024 年财政数据的四个反常和启示》 ） ， 积极信号可继续观察。 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 高拓（13705969808） 事项 3月广义财政收入同比-1.7%，1-2月同比-2.9%；3月广义财政支出同比10.1%，1-2月同比2.9%。 报告摘要 一、 收入端：单月增速转正，装备制造、科技等行业税收持续良好表现 3 月，财政收入同比 0.3% （ 1-2 月 -1.6% ），一季度预算收入进度 27.4% ，低于过去三年同期平均水平 。分税收和非税收入看： 税收降幅收窄（ -2.2% ， 1-2 月 -3.9% ），装备制造、科技等行业税收持续良好表现。 一季度， 制造业方面 ，装备制造业保持较高增幅，其中，铁路船舶航空 航天设备制造业、计算机通信设备制造业税收收入分别增长 32.4 ...