Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Fluctuating repeatedly [4] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation [4] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation [4] - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range oscillation [4] - Silicomanganese: Wide - range oscillation [4] - Coke: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Coking coal: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Logs: Fluctuating repeatedly [4] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trend intensities for various black - series commodities, and presents their fundamental data and relevant macro and industry news [4][6][10] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The futures closed at 793.0 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan/ton (-0.19%). The open - position decreased by 22,928 hands. Among spot prices, PB decreased by 3.0 yuan/ton, and others remained stable. Some basis and spreads changed slightly [6] - **News**: In July 2025, China exported 983.6 million tons of steel, up 1.6% month - on - month; imported 10462.3 million tons of iron ore, down 1.3% month - on - month [6][7] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 [7] Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: RB2510 closed at 3,231 yuan/ton, up 0.03%; HC2510 closed at 3,440 yuan/ton, down 0.35%. Open - positions decreased. Spot prices in some regions decreased slightly. Basis and spreads changed [10] - **News**: In late July 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily output of crude steel decreased by 7.4%, pig iron by 4.5%, and steel increased by 0.5%. Weekly data on August 7 showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand [11][12] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both [12] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices decreased. Spot prices of silicon manganese decreased, and the price of manganese ore increased. There were changes in basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads [14] - **News**: There were price changes in silicon - iron and silicon - manganese products. Some steel mills' procurement prices and quantities changed [15][16] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both [16] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of JM2509 and J2509 increased. Some spot prices remained stable, while the price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke to the factory increased. Basis and spreads changed [18] - **News**: In July 2025, China exported 983.6 million tons of steel, up 1.6% month - on - month [19] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both [20] Logs - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of different contracts had small changes in closing prices, trading volumes, and open - positions. Spot prices of most log types remained stable [22] - **News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [24] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [24]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View No clear core view is presented in the given content. The report mainly offers day - to - day data on various metals including gold, silver, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and tin. 3. Summary by Metal Categories Gold (AU) - On July 4, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai Gold (AU) main contract was 777.06 yuan/gram, down 4.22 yuan from the previous trading day, 4.22 yuan from last week, and 6.18 yuan from last month [1]. - The closing price of the COMEX gold main contract was 3336.00 dollars/ounce, down 32.70 dollars from the previous trading day, 5.60 dollars from last week, and up 5.00 dollars from last month [1]. - The London gold spot price was 3341.08 dollars/ounce, up 3.98 dollars from the previous trading day, 11.63 dollars from last week, and down 6.90 dollars from last month [1]. Silver (AG) - On July 4, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai Silver (AG) main contract was 8919 yuan/kilogram, down 25 yuan from the previous trading day, up 127 yuan from last week, and up 69 yuan from last month [1]. - The closing price of the COMEX silver main contract was 0.25 dollars/ounce, down 0.91 dollars from the previous trading day, up 37.04 dollars from last week, and up 0.88 dollars from last month [1]. - The London silver spot price was 0.57 dollars/ounce, up 0.29 dollars from the previous trading day, up 1.08 dollars from last week, and up 36.88 dollars from last month [1]. Copper (CU, BC) - On July 4, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai Copper (CU) main contract was 79730 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan from the previous trading day, down 830 yuan from last week, and up 800 yuan from last month [1]. - The closing price of the International Copper (BC) main contract was 70990 yuan/ton, down 770 yuan from the previous trading day, down 260 yuan from last week, and up 690 yuan from last month [1]. - The LME copper 3M closing price (15:00) was 9871.50 dollars/ton, down 113.50 dollars from the previous trading day, down 24.50 dollars from last week, and up 128.50 dollars from last month [1]. Aluminum and Alumina (AL, AO) - On July 4, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum (AL) main contract was 20635 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan from the previous trading day, down 45 yuan from last week, and up 565 yuan from last month [1]. - The closing price of the Alumina (AO) main contract was 3024 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan from the previous trading day, up 38 yuan from last week, and up 123 yuan from last month [1]. - The LME aluminum 3M closing price (15:00) was 2597.50 dollars/ton, down 14.50 dollars from the previous trading day, up 14.50 dollars from last week, and up 134.00 dollars from last month [1]. Zinc (ZN) - On July 4, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai Zinc (ZN) main contract was 22410 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan from the previous trading day, unchanged from last week, and up 25 yuan from last month [1]. - The LME zinc 0 - 3 premium was - 9.75 dollars/ton, down 9.49 dollars from the previous trading day, up 8.05 dollars from last week, and up 22.61 dollars from last month [1]. - The refined zinc spot import profit and loss was - 1015.30 yuan/ton, down 96.61 yuan from the previous trading day, up 194.72 yuan from last week, and down 571.87 yuan from last month [1]. Lead (PB) - On July 4, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai Lead (PB) main contract was 17295 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan from the previous trading day, up 170 yuan from last week, and up 515 yuan from last month [1]. - The LME lead 3M closing price (15:00) was 2064.50 dollars/ton, down 5.00 dollars from the previous trading day, up 28.50 dollars from last week, and up 75.00 dollars from last month [1]. - The refined lead spot import profit and loss was - 817.26 yuan/ton, down 121.99 yuan from the previous trading day, down 58.82 yuan from last week, and up 64.60 yuan from last month [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel (NI, SS) - On July 4, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel (NI) main contract was 122270 yuan/ton, up 480 yuan from the previous trading day, up 1790 yuan from last week, and up 70 yuan from last month [1]. - The closing price of the Stainless Steel (SS) main contract was 12730 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous trading day, up 110 yuan from last week, and up 50 yuan from last month [1]. - The LME nickel 0 - 3 premium was - 155 dollars/ton, up 35 dollars from the previous trading day, up 50 dollars from last week, and up 50 dollars from last month [1]. Tin (SN) - On July 4, 2025, the LME tin 3M closing price (15:00) was 33590 dollars/ton, down 140 dollars from the previous trading day, up 40 dollars from last week, and up 1050 dollars from last month [1]. - The Shanghai refined tin spot import profit and loss was - 12332.95 yuan/ton, down 769.69 yuan from the previous trading day, up 942.29 yuan from last week, and down 3224.39 yuan from last month [1]. - The tin ore processing fee was 12000 yuan/ton [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On June 16, polysilicon fluctuated with a bullish bias. The main contract 2507 closed at 34,320 yuan/ton, up 1.93% intraday, and the open interest decreased by 5,586 lots to 61,698 lots. The price of SMM N-type polysilicon material dropped to 35,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable N-type polysilicon material also dropped to 35,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium over the main contract narrowed to 1,180 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon also fluctuated with a bullish bias. The main contract 2509 closed at 7,370 yuan/ton, up 0.41% intraday, and the open interest decreased by 23,640 lots to 323,000 lots. Baichuan's reference price for industrial silicon spot remained stable at 8,636 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 553 silicon dropped to 7,600 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 245 yuan/ton. - As the cost centers of silicon coal and electrodes have declined and electricity price discounts in the southwest have been implemented, the resumption of production is progressing. Industrial silicon has ended its oversold correction and returned to a downward trend. For polysilicon, there are both production increases and decreases. Most manufacturers have significantly reduced production, while a small number of manufacturers in the southwest still have production increase plans. The crystal pulling end adopts a just-in-time procurement strategy and prefers low-quality mixed-pack silicon materials, with a firm attitude towards price reduction. The inventory turnover of crystalline silicon has extended to one and a half months. Under the heavy pressure of inventory reduction, the continuous price reduction trend is inevitable, and the spot premium is steadily converging. Due to a large number of enterprises delivering to the warehouse, the logic of long squeeze on the futures market has ended, and there is no longer any impetus for a rebound, so it continues to fluctuate weakly [2]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Research View - Polysilicon fluctuated with a bullish bias while industrial silicon also showed a similar trend on June 16. The cost decline and production resumption in industrial silicon have led to a return to the downward trend, and polysilicon is facing production adjustment and inventory pressure [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 115 yuan/ton to 7,280 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 23,640 lots to 323,000 lots. The prices of various grades of industrial silicon spot remained stable. The current lowest deliverable price was 7,600 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened by 40 yuan to 245 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 1,097 to 56,823, and the total social inventory decreased by 2,500 tons to 428,800 tons [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 625 yuan/ton to 34,320 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 5,586 lots to 61,698 lots. The prices of various grades of polysilicon spot remained stable. The current lowest deliverable price was 35,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 625 yuan to 1,180 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 2,600, and the total social inventory decreased by 0.2 million tons to 26.6 million tons [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC in the East China market remained stable at 11,000 yuan/ton, and the prices of other organic silicon products were mostly stable, except that the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,500 yuan/ton to 14,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained unchanged [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost Side Prices**: Charts show the prices of industrial silicon of different grades, brand spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [11][15][17]. - **Inventory**: Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, and weekly inventory changes, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC and polysilicon [20][23]. - **Cost and Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, profit of aluminum alloy processing industry, cost and profit of DMC, and cost and profit of polysilicon [26][28][31]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in the field of non-ferrous metals research and have made significant contributions to the industry [36][37].