Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Under the expectation of a weakening fundamental situation, domestic methanol is expected to continue its weak performance in the short term. Inland, multiple olefin plants plan to undergo maintenance in November, traditional downstream acetic acid operations are at a low level, and a large methanol-to-hydrogen plant in northern Shandong has stopped for maintenance, resulting in significant negative impacts on demand. With the current high domestic methanol operation rate and upstream methanol factories still focused on inventory clearance, the supply-demand contradiction is unlikely to ease in the short term. Considering the current low methanol prices and the cautious short - selling by traders, which provides support for the bottom price, the expected decline is limited. In ports, under the pressure of high overseas supply expectations and high port inventory, the port methanol market is expected to continue its weak decline this week. Attention should be paid to subsequent impacts of sanctions, Iranian shipments, and coastal MTO operation rates. Overall, methanol prices are expected to fluctuate weakly this week, with MA2601 expected to trade between 2070 - 2110 [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For methanol 2601, the fundamental situation is expected to be weak, with the price expected to fluctuate weakly between 2070 - 2110. The basis shows that the spot price in Jiangsu is 2080 yuan/ton, with a basis of -2 for the 01 contract, indicating the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. As of November 6, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 126.61 tons, with a slight decrease of 1.68 tons from the previous period. The overall available and tradable methanol in coastal areas decreased by 3.28 tons to 80.55 tons. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average. The main positions are net short, with an increase in short positions [4]. 2. Long and Short Concerns - **Long Factors**: Some plants have stopped production, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya; Iranian methanol operation rates have decreased, and port inventories are at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen started production on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into operation later this month; northwest CTO plants are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - **Short Factors**: Some previously shut - down plants have resumed production, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua; there is an expected concentrated arrival of ships at ports in the second half of the month; formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and MTBE operation rates have significantly declined; coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling; some plants in production areas have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: In the spot market, the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region remained unchanged at 694 yuan/ton, CFR China Main Port decreased by 2 US dollars/ton to 242 US dollars/ton, and the import cost decreased by 17 yuan/ton to 2132 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract decreased by 19 yuan/ton to 2082 yuan/ton. The basis increased by 19 yuan/ton to -22 yuan/ton [8]. - **Operation Rate Data**: The national weighted average operation rate decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. Operation rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions all decreased, with decreases of 2.39%, 1.22%, and 3.55% respectively [8]. - **Inventory Data**: East China port inventory increased by 0.62 tons to 78.8 tons, and South China port inventory decreased by 0.30 tons to 49.81 tons [8]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, and others. The maintenance periods vary, and some plants have experienced temporary shutdowns due to equipment failures or other reasons [57]. - **Overseas Plants**: Some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting or have unstable operations, while plants in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and other countries are generally operating normally. Some plants in Qatar and other regions are under maintenance [58]. - **Olefin Plants**: Some domestic olefin plants are under maintenance or have reduced operations, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy and Qinghai Salt Lake. Some plants are expected to be put into operation, such as the third - phase project of Inner Mongolia Baofeng [59].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The methanol market is currently in a weak and volatile state. Although there has been a slight reduction in port inventory, the market is still constrained by high inventory levels, and the fundamental improvement is not significant. There is significant supply pressure, and the impact of potential winter gas restrictions in Iran on production and the timing are uncertain. Given the high inventory and potential positive factors such as winter gas restrictions, an overly bearish view is not advisable. It is recommended to adopt a weak and volatile trading strategy, with a small long - position allocation after a rebound driver emerges. The hedging strategy is to wait and see [3][85]. Summary by Directory 1. Spot Market - Methanol spot market prices have continued to decline recently, with recent basis quotes around 01 - 45 yuan/ton, and the basis quote for November paper goods at 01 - 5 yuan/ton [6]. 2. Basis and Spread - **Basis of Each Contract**: The basis quotes for methanol have strengthened this week, with the basis quote for November paper goods around 01 - 5 yuan/ton [15]. - **Basis of Each Region**: Coastal basis has fluctuated, and inland basis has also been volatile. The inland market prices, especially those in the northwest region, have fluctuated this week [22][31]. - **Regional Spread**: The spread between East China and inland regions has weakened. The current spread is still in a reverse - arbitrage trend. The PP - 3MA spread has weakened this week, and attention can be paid to potential opportunities to short PP and long MA in the future [40][49][55]. 3. Industrial Chain Profit - **Production and Operation**: Recently, there have been many newly - added maintenance devices, and the methanol operating rate is slightly lower than last year. As maintenance devices gradually resume production, methanol production has increased slightly [60][64]. - **Downstream Operation**: The dimethyl ether operating rate has fluctuated, the formaldehyde operating rate has rebounded, the operating rate of methanol - to - olefins in the northwest has been high and volatile, the operating rate of methanol - to - olefins devices has fluctuated this week, and MTO profits have slightly increased [69][72][75]. 4. Market Outlook - The methanol market is expected to remain in a weak and volatile state. Although there is high inventory pressure, there are also positive factors such as potential winter gas restrictions. It is recommended to adopt a weak and volatile trading strategy, with a small long - position allocation after a rebound driver emerges. The hedging strategy is to wait and see [3][85].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro sentiment was released after the meeting, and the Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high in nearly 10 years. Driven by the macro sentiment, the main methanol price first declined and then rose last week. However, from the perspective of the methanol's fundamental situation, the outlook for the 01 contract is not optimistic [2]. - The current shipping volume from Iran is around 800,000 tons. Affected by sanctions, the expected shipping volume in October is around 800,000 tons. The temperature in Iran is still warmer than last year, and the mainstream expectation for plant shutdown is mid - November. Considering Iran's price concessions, the expected shipping volume from Iran has been adjusted [2]. - On the non - Iranian side, the operation rate of Tebah has dropped significantly due to port fees, and it is estimated that the non - Iranian shipping volume will decline to below 500,000 tons, but the actual situation needs further assessment. Chile and New Zealand may fill the gap [2]. - In the domestic market, Baofeng made external procurement inquiries in the second half of the week but did not make actual purchases. Yangmei is expected to shut down for 40 days starting early November. Luxi MTO reduced external procurement due to profit reasons, and Luqing's methanol - to - hydrogen unit was shut down for maintenance for one month, both of which were unplanned [2]. - Overall, the inventory accumulation at ports has started to level off. Due to unloading and sanctions, the inventory endpoint in October has been lowered, but the inventory endpoint for the 01 contract has increased. The import cost is about 100 yuan lower than the 01 contract's futures price [2]. - The short - term trading focus is on the Sino - US negotiation. In October, Iran's shipping volume remained high, reaching 800,000 tons, and the market has little expectation for early gas restrictions this year [8]. - The long - term controversy lies in how to reduce the port inventory. Currently, the inventory problem of the 2601 contract cannot be solved, and the 2605 contract is expected to be stronger than the 2601 contract, with a reverse spread for the 1 - 5 spread. The process is affected by macro sentiment [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The macro - led methanol price movement contrasts with the weak fundamental situation of the 01 contract. Iran's shipping volume, non - Iranian supply, domestic plant operations, and port inventory all impact the market [2]. - Recommendations include reducing the short - put position for the 01 contract and selling call options for the 01 contract [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: No specific content provided. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations** - **Basis Strategy**: This week, the price of the methanol 01 contract was 2279. With high shipping volume from Iran and no vessel pick - up due to port closures, the 01 basis weakened [11]. - **Calendar Spread Strategy**: As Iran's shipping volume continued to accelerate, reaching 800,000 tons, and with little expectation for early gas restrictions this year, the 1 - 5 spread showed a reverse spread [12]. - **Trend Judgment**: Methanol is expected to trade in a range in the short term, with the 2601 contract operating between 2250 - 2350. The recommendation is to reduce the short - put position for the 2601 contract and sell call options [13]. 1.3 Methanol Inland Inventory Situation - Information on inland inventory includes the inventory of northwest methanol (excluding MTO), MTO inventory in the northwest, and inventory of methanol plants in the south and north lines, as well as national plant inventory and net plant inventory [22][26][27]. 1.4 Methanol Port Inventory Situation - Information on port inventory includes the weekly inventory of Chinese methanol ports, regional port inventories (such as in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, etc.), and related data on port to - arrival volume, stockpiles, and shipping volume [37][39][40] 2. This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Price Range Forecast**: The predicted monthly price range for methanol is 2200 - 2500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a historical percentile of 51.2% over three years [63]. - **Hedging Strategy Table**: Different hedging strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management, including futures trading, option trading, and corresponding hedging ratios and entry intervals [63]. - **Positive Information**: Sanctions have led to some vessels being unable to dock and unload, and importer replenishment has slightly strengthened the basis. Lianhong Phase II's 450,000 - ton MTO unit is expected to start production as early as the end of November [66]. - **Negative Information**: Iran shipped 1.06 million tons in September and 800,000 tons so far in October [67]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - On October 26th, Chinese and US economic and trade officials held discussions and agreed to hold a new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [68]. 3. Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - In the domestic market, the performance of production areas was weaker than that of sales areas. Although traders actively purchased at the beginning of the week, the prices in production areas declined due to factors such as no external procurement from northwest olefin plants and the intention of methanol plants to maintain low inventory [69]. - This week, the 1 - 5 spread strengthened mainly due to sanctions on Iran [71]. 4. Price and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Price Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The report tracks the prices of coal in Erdos and Qinhuangdao ports, as well as the market prices of methanol in Shandong and Taicang. It also includes information on methanol warehouse receipts and valuation [74][76][79]. 4.2 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The production costs and profits of methanol from different raw materials (coal, natural gas, and coke oven gas) in different regions are analyzed, along with the profits of MTO units and traditional downstream industries [85][87][90]. 4.3 Upstream and Downstream Production and Operation Rate Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The operation rates of major methanol enterprises, different production methods (natural gas - to - methanol, coke oven gas - to - methanol), and downstream industries (MTO, traditional downstream) are tracked, as well as the weekly production volumes of different types of methanol [93][97][102]. 4.4 Import and Export Price and Profit Tracking - The import volumes from different countries, the external market structure of methanol, import profits, and price spreads between different regions are analyzed [129][130][131]. 4.5 Overseas Operation Tracking - The capacity utilization rate, production volume, and operation rates of Iranian and non - Iranian methanol plants are tracked [135][136][137]. 5. Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - The supply - demand balance sheet for 2025 shows the daily and monthly production, import, consumption, and inventory data of methanol, including different production types (CTO, non - CTO), demand sectors (MTO, non - MTO), and inventory in ports and inland areas [138]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Projection - This week, in the domestic methanol industry, some plants in North China increased their operation rates, some in Central China recovered, and in the Northwest, there were both restarts and shutdowns for maintenance [139]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Projection - Downstream MTO units such as Xingxing and Chengzhi resumed or increased their operation rates. New demand projects like Lianhong Phase II's MTO unit are ahead of schedule and have started stockpiling. Iran maintains a high shipping volume [140].

Report Information - Report Title: 【MA周报20251012】制裁冲击或难抵高供应压力 [1][2] - Date: 2025-10-12 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Methanol's downward space is limited, with support at the [2200] price level. Although the current supply is high and demand is average, there are strong expectations for winter restrictions on Iranian devices and the peak season of the 01 contract in the future, which will improve the supply-demand situation [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Cost, Supply, and Demand - **Cost and Profit**: The price of动力煤is mainly stable with a weak trend. The production profit of the coal - to - methanol end is at a high level, while the natural gas - to - methanol is under pressure [7]. - **Supply**: Domestic and foreign methanol device starts are recovering. In Iran, some devices have restarted, and in other regions, some devices have experienced maintenance and restarts [7]. - **Demand**: After the holiday, the price of MTO is relatively firm, and the profit of MTO has slightly deteriorated but is still around the same level as last year. The operation of external - procurement MTO factories is stable, and attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of new devices in the fourth quarter [7]. 2. Regional Price and Logistics - **Regional Price**: The spot price has differentiated this week. The port price rebounded after following the futures price down, showing an overall upward trend, while the inland price has slightly declined [19]. - **Freight**: After the holiday, as the transportation capacity recovers, the freight rate has dropped significantly [40]. - **Logistics Window**: The domestic methanol trade flows from north to south and from west to east. The opening and closing of the logistics window help to balance regional price differences and supply - demand imbalances [48]. 3. Production - End Profit and Start - Up - **Production - End Profit**: The coal - to - methanol profit is high, while the natural gas - to - methanol profit is under pressure. The profit of different regions and processes varies [66]. - **Domestic Start - Up and Output**: The start - up rate has further recovered this week and is currently at a high level, but there is limited room for further improvement. The production capacity has increased, and the output of different processes also shows different trends [101]. 4. Import and Export - **Import Profit and Price Difference**: Globally, methanol prices are mainly falling. The import profit and price difference between regions vary, and attention should be paid to the price difference between Southeast Asia and China [128]. - **External - Disk Start - Up and Output**: The external - disk start - up rate is rising. Iranian devices have restarted, and the output in different regions also shows different trends [147]. - **Import Volume and Arrival Volume**: Affected by typhoons and high imports from Iran and non - Iran regions, the net import volume in August reached a record high, and the import pressure in subsequent months remains high [178]. 5. Downstream Profit and Load - **Emerging Downstream**: After the holiday, the MTO price is relatively firm, and the profit has slightly deteriorated but is still around the same level as last year. The operation of external - procurement MTO factories is stable, and attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of new devices in the fourth quarter [184]. - **Traditional Downstream**: The downstream demand is relatively flat, and the start - up rate has slightly declined compared with before the holiday. The supply and demand situation of different traditional downstream industries varies [224]. 6. Inventory - **Inland Inventory**: The inland inventory has increased by 1.95 million tons to 33.94 million tons compared with last week, and the enterprise order backlog has decreased by 15.78 million tons to 11.52 million tons. The inventory has seasonally accumulated during the holiday, but the overall increase is not large [8][278]. - **Port Inventory**: The port inventory has increased by 5.1 million tons to 154.32 million tons compared with last week, with an increase of 4.78 million tons in East China and 0.32 million tons in South China [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - The first destocking of methanol at ports showed decent results, but the absolute inventory at ports remains high. Future changes mainly depend on when Iran's winter maintenance plan will be announced. The domestic market is stronger than the port market, with domestic inventory decreasing again. For traditional downstream sectors, acetic acid inventory pressure is high, MTBE exports have improved, and formaldehyde operation remains stable [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Figures include methanol Taicang basis and the main methanol contract, methanol basis in different regions against the main futures, and inter - period spreads between different methanol futures contracts [7][8][22] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures cover Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), Taicang methanol - CFR China import spread, and price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [31][27][32] 3. Methanol Operation and Inventory - Figures show the total methanol port inventory, MTO/P operation rate (including integrated ones), domestic factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operation rate (including integrated ones) [35][36] 4. Regional Price Differences - Figures present price differences such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [38][53][51] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures display the production gross margins of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [52][56]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The domestic methanol market is expected to maintain a downward - prone trend due to weak supply - demand fundamentals, with high supply pressure from device resumption and increasing external imports, as well as sluggish downstream demand [2][9] Summary by Related Aspects Supply - Since the third quarter of this year, methanol supply in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and South America has been abundant. Iranian device restarted with increased operating rate, and India's shift to non - Iranian sources led to more Iranian shipments to China. Excess methanol from Europe also flowed to China, pushing up imports. It's estimated that China's methanol imports in August might be 1.4 - 1.5 million tons and could remain at 1.4 - 1.45 million tons in September [2][4] - Since September, some domestic methanol devices have been under maintenance, causing a decline in weekly operating rate and output. As of September 19, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 79.39%, down 1.81% week - on - week, 1.26% month - on - month, and 1.53% year - on - year. The weekly output was 1.8132 million tons, down 0.1061 million tons week - on - week, 0.0842 million tons month - on - month, and 0.0302 million tons year - on - year. September output is expected to drop to 7.8 million tons, but supply pressure will increase again after the National Day as devices resume production [3] Demand - Although the domestic methanol market has entered the traditional peak consumption season, the recovery of olefin demand has fallen short of expectations. As of September 19, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin devices was 82.88%, up 3.58% month - on - month, and the futures profit was - 183 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton month - on - month [5][7] - The traditional downstream demand for methanol was also under - performing. As of September 19, the formaldehyde operating rate was 31.54%, up 1.06 percentage points week - on - week; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.68%, down 0.11 percentage points week - on - week; the acetic acid operating rate was 75.72%, down 3.84 percentage points week - on - week; the MTBE operating rate was 57.66%, up 1.85 percentage points week - on - week [7] Inventory - As of September 19, the methanol inventory in ports of East and South China was 1.3298 million tons, up 0.0625 million tons week - on - week, 0.3956 million tons month - on - month, and 0.4872 million tons year - on - year. The high import volume and weak downstream demand led to a continuous increase in coastal port methanol inventory [4] Market Performance - Since this week, the main contract MA2601 of domestic methanol futures has continued a weak and volatile trend, with the price center steadily moving down to the range of 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The port inventory continues to rise rapidly, especially in Jiangsu. The overseas methanol production is still at a high level, and the arrival pressure in China in September remains high, awaiting the resumption of downstream MTO Xingxing in early September. The pattern of weak ports and strong inland areas persists, and the window for ports to flow back to southern Shandong has opened. The downside space depends on the inland performance. - The centralized maintenance period of coal - based methanol in the inland areas has passed, and the production of coal - based methanol has further increased. The inventory of inland factories has bottomed out and rebounded, and the inland supply - demand may weaken marginally. Among traditional downstream industries, the operating rates of MTBE and acetic acid continue to decline, and the operating rate of formaldehyde remains low. [2][3] 3. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures showing the basis between methanol spot in different regions and the main futures contract, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts, including methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01. [6][7] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures display the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the profit of East China MTO (PP&EG type), and the import price differences such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China. [6][27] III. Methanol Production and Inventory - The total port inventory of methanol, the operating rate of MTO/P (including integrated plants), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the operating rate of Chinese methanol (including integrated plants) are presented. The port inventory is increasing, with the total port inventory at 1,427,655 tons (+127,905 tons), and the inventory in Jiangsu ports at 760,000 tons (+88,500 tons). The operating rate of downstream MTO is 84.72% (-0.63%). The inland factory inventory is also rising, with the Longzhong inland factory inventory at 341,083 tons (+7,690 tons). [2][3][35] IV. Regional Price Differences - The report shows the price differences between different regions, such as the price differences between northern Shandong and the northwest, Taicang and Inner Mongolia, Taicang and southern Shandong, etc. For example, the price difference between Taicang and Inner Mongolia - 550 is - 363 yuan/ton (-8 yuan/ton). [3][6][40] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production gross profits of traditional downstream industries, including the production gross profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan. [6][51] 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously short - sell on rallies for hedging. - Inter - period: Wait and see. - Cross - variety: Wait and see. [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The port basis of methanol continues to consolidate weakly, and the ports are in a continuous inventory accumulation cycle. The overall overseas methanol operation rate remains high, with only a small amount of maintenance in Iran and the resumption of Petronas in non - Iranian regions, increasing the pressure of arrivals in China. The maintenance of the Xingxing MTO unit has dragged down the demand. The centralized maintenance period of coal - based methanol is gradually over, and the operation rate will gradually increase in late August, which may drive the inventory in the inland to bottom out and rise. The formaldehyde downstream is in the seasonal off - season, waiting for further bottom - up recovery [2]. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - term Structure The report shows figures related to methanol basis and inter - term structure, including methanol Taicang basis and main contract, basis of methanol spot in different regions relative to the main futures, and the spread between different methanol futures contracts [6][8][21]. II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit It presents figures on methanol production profit (such as Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit), MTO profit (East China MTO profit of PP&EG type), and import profit (Taicang methanol - CFR China import spread, and spreads between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China) [25][33]. III. Methanol Operation & Inventory The data includes methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operation rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operation rate (including integrated ones) [35][37]. IV. Regional Spreads The report shows figures on various regional spreads, such as the spread between northern Shandong and northwest, the spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia, and spreads between other regions [39][45][48]. V. Traditional Downstream Profits It presents figures on the production profits of traditional downstream products, including the production profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [49][55]. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously short - sell on rallies for hedging [3] - Inter - term: Wait and see [3] - Cross - variety: Wait and see [3] Market Data Inland - Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 470 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol is 665 yuan/ton (-15 yuan/ton). - Inner Mongolia northern line methanol price is 2080 yuan/ton (-15 yuan/ton), with a basis of 284 yuan/ton (+1 yuan/ton); Inner Mongolia southern line is 2080 yuan/ton (-20 yuan/ton). - Shandong Linyi is 2345 yuan/ton (-9 yuan/ton), with a basis of 149 yuan/ton (+7 yuan/ton); Henan is 2210 yuan/ton (-20 yuan/ton), with a basis of 14 yuan/ton (-4 yuan/ton); Hebei is 2300 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of 164 yuan/ton (+16 yuan/ton). - Longzhong's inland factory inventory is 295,573 tons (+1,885 tons), and the northwest factory inventory is 182,500 tons (-3,000 tons); the inland factory's pending orders are 219,365 tons (-21,435 tons), and the northwest factory's pending orders are 107,000 tons (-15,800 tons) [1]. Port - Taicang methanol is 2302 yuan/ton (-23 yuan/ton), with a basis of - 94 yuan/ton (-7 yuan/ton), CFR China is 262 US dollars/ton (-4 US dollars/ton), and the East China import spread is 17 yuan/ton (+8 yuan/ton). Changzhou methanol is 2425 yuan/ton; Guangdong methanol is 2300 yuan/ton (-25 yuan/ton), with a basis of - 96 yuan/ton (-9 yuan/ton). - Longzhong's total port inventory is 1,021,800 tons (+96,320 tons), Jiangsu port inventory is 548,000 tons (+50,000 tons), Zhejiang port inventory is 139,000 tons (-5,000 tons), and Guangdong port inventory is 213,000 tons (+43,000 tons). The downstream MTO operation rate is 83.12% (-0.77%) [2]. Regional Spreads - The spread between northern Shandong and northwest (-280) is - 45 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton), the spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia (-550) is - 328 yuan/ton (-8 yuan/ton), the spread between Taicang and southern Shandong (-250) is - 293 yuan/ton (-14 yuan/ton); the spread between southern Shandong and Taicang (-100) is - 57 yuan/ton (+14 yuan/ton); the spread between Guangdong and East China (-180) is - 182 yuan/ton (-2 yuan/ton); the spread between East China and Sichuan - Chongqing (-200) is - 133 yuan/ton (-6 yuan/ton) [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The domestic methanol market shows significant regional differences in expectations. The inland market is expected to be in a tight supply - demand balance, with the market likely to fluctuate strongly this week. The port market has obvious supply - demand contradictions, with expected continuous inventory accumulation, and is expected to be in a state of fluctuating with both rises and falls. Overall, methanol prices are expected to fluctuate this week, with MA2601 expected to operate in the range of 2470 - 2520 [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The domestic methanol market has regional differences. Inland supply increases with the resumption of some plants, but low inventory and external procurement demand from CTO enterprises maintain a tight balance. The port is expected to see continuous inventory accumulation due to concentrated shipments from Iran and the shutdown of large olefin plants. Methanol futures are supported but have limited upward momentum, and prices are expected to fluctuate this week [5]. 2. Multi - Short Concerns - **Positive factors**: Some domestic plants are shut down, Iranian methanol production has decreased, the port inventory is at a low level, new acetic acid plants are put into production, and northwest CTO factories are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - **Negative factors**: Some previously shut - down domestic plants have resumed production, there will be concentrated arrivals at the port in the second half of the month, traditional demand is in the off - season, coal - to - methanol has profit margins and is actively selling, and some factories in the production area have accumulated inventory [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Spot price**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2410 yuan/ton, with a 01 - contract basis of - 69, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [5]. - **Inventory**: As of August 7, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 80.33 tons, a cumulative increase of 15.30 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas has increased by 13.20 tons to 49.83 tons [5]. - **Market price changes**: There are price changes in various regions. For example, the price in Hebei has increased by 1.10% week - on - week, while the price in Jiangsu has decreased by 0.42% [8][9]. - **Production profit**: Coal - to - methanol has a profit of 300 yuan/ton, natural gas - to - methanol has a loss of 120 yuan/ton, and coke oven gas - to - methanol has a profit of 485 yuan/ton [20]. - **Operating rate**: The national weighted average operating rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. The operating rate in the northwest region is 81.54%, a decrease of 3.55% from the previous week [8]. - **External market price**: The CFR price in China is 274 US dollars/ton, and the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 334 US dollars/ton [8]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are in maintenance, including those in the northwest, north, east, southwest, and northeast regions, with different maintenance start and end times and losses [55]. - **Foreign plants**: Some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting or have uncertain operating conditions, while most plants in other countries are operating normally, with some in maintenance [56]. - **Olefin plants**: Some olefin plants are operating stably, some are in maintenance, and some have uncertain restart times [57].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamental situation of methanol is becoming more polarized, and it is expected that the regional characteristics of its price trends will become more prominent. The port market is likely to see inventory accumulation this week, with weakening demand, leading to a predicted weak adjustment. The inland market has healthy supply - demand fundamentals, but is affected by the weak port market, and is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillatory adjustment. Overall, the methanol price is expected to oscillate this week, with MA2509 running between 2360 - 2410 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamental situation of methanol 2509 is neutral. The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. The inventory situation is bullish, the disk is neutral, the main position is net short with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish. It is expected that the methanol price will oscillate this week, with MA2509 ranging from 2360 - 2410 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Bullish factors**: Some domestic devices such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya have stopped production; the methanol production in Iran has decreased, and the port inventory is at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen has started production, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production this month; some CTO factories in the northwest have external procurement needs [6]. - **Bearish factors**: Some previously shut - down domestic devices such as Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed production; there is expected to be a concentrated arrival of ships at the port in the second half of the month; the formaldehyde industry has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has significantly declined; coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling; some factories in the production area have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Price data**: In the spot market, the prices of some regions such as Jiangsu and Fujian have decreased, while those in Inner Mongolia have increased. In the futures market, the closing price has decreased. The basis has changed, and the import spread has also changed [8][9][11]. - **Operating rate data**: The national weighted average operating rate of methanol is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from last week. The operating rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions have all decreased [8]. - **Inventory data**: As of July 31, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 650,300 tons, an increase of 63,200 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas has increased by 40,500 tons to 366,300 tons [5]. - **Production profit data**: The profits of coal - based and coke - oven - gas - based methanol production have changed, while the profit of natural - gas - based methanol production remains unchanged [19]. - **Downstream product data**: The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remain unchanged. The production profits and loads of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTO devices have all changed [28][32][35][39][44]. - **Warehouse receipt and forecast data**: The number of methanol warehouse receipts has decreased by 13.10%, and the number of effective forecasts has increased to 202 [51]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic device maintenance**: Many domestic methanol production enterprises in Northwest, North, East, Southwest, and Northeast regions are in various states of maintenance, including planned and unplanned shutdowns, and some devices are in the process of restarting [54]. - **Foreign device operation**: Some methanol production devices in Iran are in the process of restarting or have uncertain operation statuses. Devices in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Qatar, and other countries are generally operating normally, while some devices in the United States and New Zealand have low operating rates [55]. - **Olefin device operation**: Olefin devices in Northwest, East, Central, Shandong, Northeast, and other regions have different operating conditions, including normal operation, shutdown for maintenance, and low - load operation [56].