行业概览 2025/11 2025年中国乙脑病毒疫苗行业洞察报告：国 家免规政策升级驱动市场扩容，"辽宁成大- 成都生物制品研究所-康泰生物"三强地位形 成稳态，新兴市场如何破局（精华版） EPI Upgrades Accelerate Market Expansion and Reshape Competitive Dynamics in China's JE Vaccine Industry in 2025 2025年の中国日本脳炎ワクチン産業において、EPI制度の高度化が市場拡 大を加速させ、競争環境を再編する 报告标签：乙脑疫苗、减毒活病毒疫苗、灭活病毒疫苗，mRNA病毒疫苗 主笔人：梁坤媛 报告提供的任何内容（包括但不限于数据、文字、图表、图像等）均系头豹研究院独有的高度机密性 文件（在报告中另行标明出处者除外）。 ，任何人不得以任何方式擅自 复制、再造、传播、出版、引用、改编、汇编本报告内容，若有违反上述约定的行为发生，头豹研究 院保留采取法律措施、追究相关人员责任的权利。头豹研究院开展的所有商业活动均使用"头豹研究院 "或"头豹"的商号、商标，头豹研究院无任何前述名称之外的其他分支机构，也未授权 ...

四年前，它是疫情中的科技明星，市值巅峰近2000亿美元、一度手握180亿美元现金。 四年后，它的市值相比高点缩水9成多，不得不向Ares Management举债15亿美元。 平时关注医药行业的朋友可能已经看出来——它是一家美国上市公司（以下简称M公司）。曾经拥有"疫 苗领跑者"、"疫苗之王"等美名的它，如今却成了收缩管线、全球裁员的求生者。它的故事，某种程度上 也演绎了"成功"被简单外推的投资后遗症，理应成为投资者引以为戒的一记清醒剂。 成立于2010年的公司，因新冠疫苗而声名鹊起。疫情期间，该公司的mRNA新冠疫苗率先获批紧急使用， 使得其2021年的总收入高达185亿美元（其中新冠疫苗收入177亿美元）。 更令彼时的资本市场充满期待的，是借助mRNA技术，M公司的新冠疫苗得以在数周内就完成了序列设计 和工艺放大，此举大大缩短了疫苗走向临床的时间。而如果mRNA技术可以平移，就会开启疫苗研发的新 纪元，M公司的商业价值也有望迎来指数级的增长。 但乐观的憧憬并未如期上演。参考媒体报道，后疫情时代的M公司，走上了公司快速扩张但营收快速缩水 之路。一方面，公司在全球五大洲密集布局生产基地与研发中心；员工规模从疫 ...

刚过去的2025年，医药股显著反弹，但智飞生物（300122）却逆势下跌近三成，这已是公司连续第四年下跌。股价疲弱的背后是去年以来智飞生物业绩大 幅下滑直至亏损。 财务数据显示，2024年智飞生物营收和净利润均大幅下降。其中，当年公司实现营收261亿元，同比大降51%；实现净利润20.2亿元，同比大降75%。2025 年前三季度，公司实现营收76.3亿元，同比大降66%；净利润亏损12亿元，由盈转亏。 根据2025年中报，智飞生物账龄在1年以上的应收账款合计占比从期初的约24%上升至期末的近45%。 值得注意的是，HPV疫苗保质期是3年。这意味着2026年智飞生物会面对大批疫苗保质期到期的问题，公司将面临计提坏账的风险。 面对资金压力，智飞生物开始大额融资。 今年1月5日晚，智飞生物发布公告，准备申请总额不超过102亿元、期限不超过3年的中长期贷款，用于置换公司存量融资以及补充日常营运资金。 此外，去年6月26日，智飞生物公告，拟通过发行公司债券募资不超过60亿元，用于满足生产经营与投资的资金需求，优化债务结构。 截至2025年三季度末，公司负债总额167.9亿元，资产负债率36.18%。如果加上102亿元的 ...

Macro Strategy - The macro short cycle shows slight signs of turning, but it is still uncertain whether the current cycle has completed its bottoming process. December PPI year-on-year was -1.90%, showing improvement from November's -2.20%, while CPI was 0.80%, remaining in positive territory for the third consecutive month. However, the absolute value is low, keeping the annual CPI growth at 0% [2][3] - The macro short cycle composite index, derived from PMI, PPI, CPI, and 10-year government bond yields, indicates a slight turning point in December, but further observation is needed to confirm the bottoming of the current cycle [2] Stock Market - A-shares achieved a "good start" in the first week of 2026, with major indices showing gains: Shanghai Composite Index up 3.82%, Shenzhen Component Index up 4.40%, and ChiNext Index up 3.89%. The market's positive performance is attributed to early policy support in the "two new" sectors and improving macro indicators [3][4] - The primary industry sectors saw more gains than losses, with aerospace equipment II and wind power equipment leading the way with increases of 24.49% and 20.01%, respectively. The banking sector was the only one to decline, down 1.90% [5] Investment Recommendations - For the long term, 2026 is the starting year of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with a supportive policy environment for industrial upgrades. The market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" trend, with a focus on sectors related to "anti-involution," insurance, securities, and aerospace as guided by the "14th Five-Year Plan" [6] - The new cycle in 2026 is anticipated to benefit upstream cyclical industries, with a positive outlook for sectors such as artificial intelligence and aerospace [6] Vaccine Industry - Recent developments in the vaccine industry include significant progress in multiple pipelines. Notable advancements include the approval of a 24-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide conjugate vaccine by CanSino and the initiation of clinical trials for various vaccines by other companies [9] - The vaccine sector is actively pursuing product iteration and technological advancements, with a focus on filling market gaps and expanding mRNA technology pipelines. This innovation trend supports the long-term construction of product lineups [9] - The vaccine industry is currently facing performance pressures, with a high proportion of Me-too pipelines leading to intense competition and price declines. Companies are adjusting their pipeline strategies to focus on innovative vaccines and multi-valent products [13][14]

证券研究报告 2026 年 01 月 11 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 疫苗行业周报 疫苗研发多管线取得新进展 核心要点： 国内外疫苗动态 相关研究： 1. 《HPV疫苗集采落地，普惠接 种有望快速推进》20251227 2. 《2025年68项预防性疫苗获 批进入临床，呈现稳步增长态势》 20260104 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 -10 0 10 20 30 25/01 25/04 25/07 25/10 沪深300_累计 疫苗_累计 | % | 1 个月 | 3 个月 | 12 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 相对收益 | 0 | -6 | -26 | | 绝对收益 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：许雯 证书编号：S0500517110001 Tel：021-50293534 Email：xw3315@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 （1）康希诺：24 价肺炎球菌多糖结合疫苗（CRM197/破伤风类毒素）获批临 床。康希诺的 PCV24 覆盖当前肺炎球菌主要流行血清型 ...

Core Viewpoint - The assessment of Xiansheng Xiangrui's valuation and the rationale behind the acquisition by Beijing Lideman Biochemical Co., Ltd. is deemed reasonable, with a valuation increase rate of 162.23%, which is lower than the average in the biopharmaceutical industry [1][6]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - Xiansheng Xiangrui is projected to achieve a revenue of 582.35 million yuan in 2024, a decrease of approximately 10% year-on-year, with a net profit of 180.14 million yuan, down 14.39% [2]. - The decline in performance is attributed to adjustments in sales models, fiscal constraints in certain regions, and intensified local market competition, although terminal sales are expected to continue growing [2]. - The company is expected to see a non-simulated net profit of 158.76 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.3% [2]. - The market for tuberculosis prevention remains significant, with 696,000 new patients expected in 2024, and the market size for the relevant segment is projected to grow from 2.8 billion yuan in 2024 to 3.5 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.01% [2]. Group 2: Product and Market Position - Xiansheng Xiangrui's core product, TB-PPD, holds an approximate market share of 83.9% in the skin test market for 2024 [3]. - The company’s IGRA product is expected to be approved and sold by 2025, with other pipeline products like Xs02 progressing well and anticipated to launch by 2027 [3]. - The revenue growth forecast for 2025-2030 is a compound annual growth rate of 3.59%, which is cautious and lower than the industry growth rate [3]. Group 3: Valuation Methodology - The selection of comparable companies in the vaccine industry for market-based assessment is justified, as Xiansheng Xiangrui's core products are similar in management and sales models to vaccine companies [4]. - The assessment process involved selecting four comparable companies from 54 listed bioproduct companies, excluding competitors with a high proportion of agency business [4]. Group 4: Asset Divestiture - The decision to divest mRNA-related assets is considered reasonable, as the company had not achieved marketable R&D results from its mRNA technology platform investment of 41.41 million yuan [5]. - The asset was sold for 83.18 million yuan, generating an investment return of 11.62 million yuan, which is beneficial for focusing on core business and protecting shareholder interests [5]. Group 5: Fairness of Transaction Pricing - The total equity valuation of Xiansheng Xiangrui is assessed at 2.674 billion yuan, with a valuation increase rate of 162.23%, which is within a reasonable range compared to the average increase rate of 338.56% in recent biopharmaceutical transactions [6]. - The final transaction price for 70% of the shares is 1.733 billion yuan, aligning closely with the assessment results, confirming the fairness of the pricing [6].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhifei Biological, is facing significant financial distress due to high inventory levels and a substantial loss, prompting it to seek a loan of up to 10.2 billion yuan to manage its operations and replace existing financing [2][5]. Financial Performance - As of Q3 2025, Zhifei Biological reported a loss of 1.2 billion yuan, with inventory reaching 20.246 billion yuan, a 125% increase from the beginning of 2024 [5]. - Accounts receivable stood at 12.814 billion yuan, leading to a total of 33 billion yuan in combined inventory and receivables, over four times the company's revenue for that period [5]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to decline by over 50% to 26.07 billion yuan, with net profit dropping nearly 75% [5]. Industry Context - The HPV vaccine market has shifted from a supply shortage to an oversupply situation, with sales declining since 2024, impacting Zhifei Biological's ability to sell its inventory [6]. - The introduction of competitive products, such as the domestic HPV vaccine priced at 1,500 yuan, has intensified price competition, further squeezing profit margins [6]. - The industry is undergoing structural adjustments, with only 6 out of 17 vaccine companies being profitable in the first half of 2025 [6][7]. Strategic Response - In response to its financial challenges, Zhifei Biological has prioritized inventory reduction, debt management, and cash recovery as core tasks [9]. - The company is also diversifying its product offerings, with plans to increase the number of self-developed products and expand into the GLP-1 market for diabetes and obesity treatments [9]. - The industry is witnessing a shift from price competition to value competition, with a focus on product quality and differentiation as essential for survival [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by Zhifei Biological regarding a loan application of up to 10.2 billion yuan highlights the urgent need to address the company's significant inventory pressure and financial challenges in the context of a struggling vaccine industry [2][5]. Financial Situation - As of Q3 2025, Zhifei Biological reported a loss of 1.2 billion yuan, with inventory levels soaring to 20.246 billion yuan, a 125% increase from the beginning of 2024 [5]. - Accounts receivable reached 12.814 billion yuan, leading to a total of 33 billion yuan in combined inventory and receivables, over four times the company's revenue for that period [5]. - The company's asset-liability ratio is projected to rise from 36.18% to approximately 48% following the loan, nearing historical highs [5]. Industry Context - The HPV vaccine market has shifted from a supply shortage to an oversupply, with sales declining since 2024, exacerbated by price competition from new entrants like Wantai Biological [6]. - The price of the two-valent HPV vaccine has plummeted over 90%, from 329 yuan per dose in 2022 to 27.5 yuan in 2025, significantly impacting profit margins [6]. - The vaccine industry is undergoing structural adjustments, with only 6 out of 17 listed vaccine companies profitable in the first half of 2025 [6][7]. Strategic Response - Zhifei Biological has prioritized inventory reduction, debt repayment, and cash recovery as core tasks, launching vaccination campaigns to stimulate demand [9]. - The company is also focusing on diversifying its product offerings, with plans to increase the number of self-developed products in the next three to five years [9]. - A shift towards developing higher-tier vaccines and creating technological barriers is deemed essential for long-term survival in the competitive landscape [10][11]. Market Dynamics - The industry is experiencing a deep restructuring, with many companies expanding into international markets to seek new growth opportunities [9]. - The reliance on single products and agency models has been identified as a significant risk, emphasizing the need for better inventory management and market forecasting capabilities [11].

2026年1月5日晚间，A股疫苗龙头智飞生物发布公告， 拟申请总额不超过102亿元、期限最长3年的中长期贷款， 用于置换存量融资及补充日 常营运资金。 2025年三季度，智飞生物已陷入12亿元亏损，更严峻的是，其核心库存产品九价HPV疫苗保质期为3年，2026年将迎来大批疫苗过期节点，可 能引发大规模坏账计提。这场近乎"押上全家族资产"的大额融资，凸显出公司应对200亿元级疫苗库存压力的紧迫性，也折射出中国疫苗行业 在供需失衡与价格战下的调整困境。 上述公告发布后，智飞生物股价略有回升，截至1月9日早盘，近5日涨近4%。 记者丨唐唯珂 编辑丨季媛媛 2025年三季报显示， 公司存货余额高达202.46亿元， 较2024年初的89.86亿元激增125%； 同期应收账款达128.14亿元，两者合计330亿元， 是当期营收的4倍以上，形成庞大的资金占用堰塞湖。更严峻的是，其核心库存产品九价HPV疫苗保质期为3年， 2026年将迎来大批疫苗过期 节点，可能引发大规模坏账计提。 财务数据显示，公司业绩已连续多季度滑坡。2024年营收同比下滑超50%至260.7亿元，净利润骤降近75%；2025年上半年陷入上市以来首次半 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by Zhifei Biological (300122) regarding a loan application of up to 10.2 billion yuan highlights the urgent need to address a significant inventory pressure of approximately 20 billion yuan in the context of a 1.2 billion yuan loss in Q3 2025, reflecting the challenges faced by the Chinese vaccine industry amid supply-demand imbalances and price wars [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Situation - As of Q3 2025, Zhifei Biological reported a staggering inventory balance of 20.246 billion yuan, a 125% increase from 8.986 billion yuan at the beginning of 2024, with accounts receivable reaching 12.814 billion yuan, resulting in a total of 33 billion yuan, which is over four times the revenue for that period [4]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to decline by over 50% to 26.07 billion yuan, with net profit plummeting nearly 75%, and by Q3 2025, the cumulative loss has expanded to 1.2 billion yuan [4]. - The proposed 10.2 billion yuan loan will increase the company's debt ratio from 36.18% to approximately 48%, nearing historical peaks, indicating severe financial strain [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The HPV vaccine market, once a profit engine, has shifted from a supply shortage to overcapacity, with sales declining since 2024, leading to a situation where Zhifei Biological is compelled to purchase vaccines it cannot sell due to prior high-volume procurement agreements [5]. - The competitive landscape has intensified with the introduction of domestic HPV vaccines at significantly lower prices, such as the 1,500 yuan full-course price of Wantai Biological's product, alongside drastic price reductions in other vaccine categories due to centralized procurement policies [6]. - The vaccine industry is undergoing a deep restructuring, with only 6 out of 17 listed vaccine companies remaining profitable in the first half of 2025, while many others face revenue declines exceeding 50% [5][6]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - In response to the crisis, Zhifei Biological has prioritized inventory reduction, cash recovery, and debt reduction, launching vaccination initiatives across various regions, although challenges remain due to the industry-wide supply-demand imbalance [7]. - The company is accelerating the launch of its own products, aiming to increase the proportion of self-developed products in its revenue mix over the next three to five years, with significant products already in the application stage [7]. - The industry is witnessing a divergence in strategies, with many companies exploring overseas markets for growth, while experts emphasize the need for innovation and higher-tier vaccine development to survive the ongoing market reshuffle [8].