1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand sides have no significant changes. The production has slowed down after weeks of growth but remains at a relatively high level. Downstream demand from polysilicon and organic silicon can support it in the short - term. The inventory is high with limited marginal reduction. The relative valuation is low compared to polysilicon, and the price is expected to be strong in the short - term, with subsequent focus on supply - demand improvement and policy changes [16]. - For polysilicon, the price continues to oscillate. The market focuses on capacity integration policies and downstream price transfer. The inventory reduction space is limited, and the price may experience a phased decline before the policy is implemented. Attention should be paid to position and risk control [18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Demand**: Polysilicon weekly output is 31,300 tons, DMC output is 48,600 tons (down 300 tons week - on - week), 1 - 8 month aluminum alloy cumulative output is 12.324 billion tons (up 2.163 billion tons or 21.29% year - on - year), and 1 - 7 month industrial silicon cumulative net export is 409,400 tons (up 5,400 tons or 1.33% year - on - year) [14]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon inventory is 692,000 tons (down 2,400 tons week - on - week), including factory inventory of 257,600 tons (down 3,800 tons), market inventory of 185,000 tons (up 2,000 tons), and registered warehouse receipt inventory of 249,400 tons (down 600 tons) [14][15]. - **Price**: As of September 19, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygenated) industrial silicon in East China is 9,100 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton week - on - week), 421 is 9,600 yuan/ton (equivalent to a futures price of 8,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the futures main contract (SI2511) closes at 9,305 yuan/ton (up 560 yuan/ton) [15]. - **Cost**: The average production cost in Xinjiang is 8,458.33 yuan/ton, Yunnan is 9,393.75 yuan/ton, Sichuan is 9,090.48 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia is 9,000 yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply**: The weekly output of industrial silicon is 94,700 tons (down 800 tons week - on - week) [15]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - **Industrial Silicon**: As of September 19, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygenated) industrial silicon in East China is 9,100 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton week - on - week), 421 is 9,600 yuan/ton (equivalent to a futures price of 8,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the futures main contract (SI2511) closes at 9,305 yuan/ton (up 560 yuan/ton) [23]. - **Polysilicon**: As of September 19, 2025, the average price of SMM - statistical N - type polysilicon re -投料 is 52.65 yuan/kg (up 1.1 yuan/kg week - on - week), N - type dense material is 51.15 yuan/kg (up 1.1 yuan/kg week - on - week), and the futures main contract (PS2511) closes at 52,700 yuan/ton (down 910 yuan/ton). The basis of the main contract is - 50 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of - 0.09% [26]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon - **Total Output**: As of September 19, 2025, the weekly output is 94,700 tons (down 800 tons week - on - week). In August 2025, the output is 370,500 tons (up 49,300 tons month - on - month), and the cumulative output from January to August is down 538,600 tons or 17.44% year - on - year [31]. - **Production in Main Producing Areas**: No specific quantitative changes in the main producing areas are mentioned other than the overall production [30][33][35]. - **Production Cost**: As of September 19, 2025, the electricity price and silica price in the main producing areas are flat week - on - week. The average production cost in Xinjiang is 8,458.33 yuan/ton, Yunnan is 9,393.75 yuan/ton, Sichuan is 9,090.48 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia is 9,000 yuan/ton [43][46]. - **Visible Inventory**: As of September 19, 2025, the industrial silicon inventory is 692,000 tons (down 2,400 tons week - on - week), including factory inventory of 257,600 tons (down 3,800 tons), market inventory of 185,000 tons (up 2,000 tons), and registered warehouse receipt inventory of 249,400 tons (down 600 tons) [49]. 3.4 Polysilicon - **Output**: As of September 19, 2025, the weekly output is 31,300 tons (basically flat week - on - week), close to the same period in 2024. In August, the output is 131,700 tons (up 25,400 tons month - on - month), and the cumulative output from January to August is 811,100 tons (down 36.67% year - on - year) [54]. - **Operating Rate and Scheduling**: In August, the operating rate is 45.78% (up 6.55 percentage points month - on - month). SMM predicts the output in September to be 126,700 tons, with a decreasing operating rate [57]. - **Inventory**: As of September 19, 2025, the factory inventory is 242,100 tons (Bai Chuan Ying Fu's statistics), and the SMM - statistical inventory is 204,000 tons [60]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of September 19, 2025, the production cost is 41,405.50 yuan/ton, and the gross profit is 9,194.50 yuan/ton [63]. - **Silicon Wafer**: The weekly output is 13.92GW (slightly up week - on - week), the output in August is 56.04GW (up 3.29GW month - on - month), and the cumulative output from January to August is 429.12GW (down 8.77% year - on - year). The inventory is 16.87GW (slightly up week - on - week), and the predicted output in September is 57.53GW (slightly up) [66][69]. - **Battery Cell**: The output in August is 58.27GW (up 0.08GW month - on - month), and the operating rate is 56.89% (down 2.17 percentage points month - on - month). The cumulative output from January to August is 446.87GW (up 0.96% year - on - year). The inventory is 5.94GW (recovering), and the predicted output in September is 60.04GW (slightly up) [74][77]. - **Module**: The output in August is 49.2GW (up 2.1GW month - on - month), and the operating rate is 49.09% (up 3.17 percentage points month - on - month). The cumulative output from January to August is 379.6GW (up 1.31% year - on - year). The inventory is 34.5GW (slightly up), and the predicted output in September is 50.3GW (higher than August) [82][85]. 3.5 Organic Silicon - **Output**: As of September 19, 2025, the DMC output is 48,600 tons (down 300 tons week - on - week). In August, the output is 219,600 tons (up 13,100 tons month - on - month), and the cumulative output from January to August is 1.653 billion tons (up 17.58% year - on - year) [92]. - **Price and Profit**: As of September 19, 2025, the average price of organic silicon is 10,800 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the DMC gross profit is - 1,959.38 yuan/ton [95]. - **Inventory**: As of September 19, 2025, the DMC inventory is 45,800 tons (down 1,500 tons week - on - week) [98]. 3.6 Silicon - Aluminum Alloy and Export - **Aluminum Alloy**: As of September 19, 2025, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 is 21,220 yuan/ton (down 250 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 is 20,920 yuan/ton (down 150 yuan/ton week - on - week). The cumulative output from January to August is 12.324 billion tons (up 2.163 billion tons or 21.29% year - on - year). The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy is 57.4%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy is 55.9% [103][106]. - **Export**: From January to July, the cumulative net export of industrial silicon is 409,400 tons (up 5,400 tons or 1.33% year - on - year) [109].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For polysilicon, the long - term price upward trend is certain, recommended to buy on dips in the medium - long term; short - term is volatile, and there may be a deep correction in futures prices. For industrial silicon, the short - term price may correct, but the decline is limited, and it is recommended to participate in long positions after a sufficient correction [4][6] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Polysilicon**: In September, silicon wafer production is expected to increase by 6GW to 58GW, corresponding to a polysilicon demand of about 116,000 tons. The polysilicon production is expected to remain around 130,000 tons. The total inventory in the polysilicon industry is close to 400,000 tons, and the downstream inventory is about 180,000 - 200,000 tons. Long - term price is likely to rise, short - term is volatile. Operation strategies include buying on dips for far - month contracts, and conducting reverse arbitrage for 2511 and 2512 contracts [4][5] - **Industrial silicon**: This week, DMC weekly production increased by 0.62% to 48,900 tons, polysilicon weekly production decreased by 0.60% to 31,200 tons, primary aluminum alloy operating rate increased by 1 percentage point to 57.6%, and recycled aluminum alloy operating rate remained flat at 55.5%. Industrial silicon weekly production increased by 2.75% to 95,500 tons. Social inventory increased by 20,000 tons to 539,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory increased by 3,100 tons to 176,700 tons, and downstream raw material inventory decreased by 2,700 tons to 221,600 tons. The short - term price may correct, and it is recommended to avoid short - term long positions, sell out - of - the - money put options or participate in long positions after a sufficient correction, and conduct reverse arbitrage for 11 and 12 contracts [6][7] Chapter 2: Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Market Performance**: This week, industrial silicon futures fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 8,745 yuan/ton. Spot prices generally rose by 100 yuan/ton [10] - **Downstream Demand**: DMC production increased, polysilicon production slightly decreased, and aluminum alloy operating rate increased. DMC weekly production was 48,900 tons, polysilicon weekly production was 31,200 tons, primary aluminum alloy operating rate was 57.6%, and recycled aluminum alloy operating rate was 55.5% [13] - **Production**: This week, industrial silicon weekly production was 95,500 tons, a 2.75% increase. The number of furnaces in Xinjiang increased by 7, and it is expected that industrial silicon production will increase slightly in the future [25] - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased by 20,000 tons to 539,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory increased by 3,100 tons to 176,700 tons, and downstream raw material inventory decreased by 2,700 tons to 221,600 tons [26] - **Product Prices**: Industrial silicon spot prices strengthened, organic silicon - related product prices were stable, organic silicon intermediate operating rate increased slightly, and aluminum alloy operating rate increased slightly. Xinjiang refined coal prices and charcoal prices rose [31][35][41][45][48] Chapter 3: Polysilicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Price**: This week, polysilicon spot prices decreased. N - type re - feedstock price was 49.1 - 54 yuan/kg, N - type dense material price was 48.1 - 52 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon price was 48 - 49 yuan/kg. The lower limit of rod - shaped silicon price decreased by 1,000 yuan/ton compared with last week, and granular silicon price remained stable [54][61] - **Silicon Wafer and Battery**: Silicon wafer and battery prices strengthened. Leading enterprises raised silicon wafer quotes, and battery prices increased accordingly. It is expected that battery quotes may continue to rise [62][68] - **Component**: Some component prices increased. Domestic photovoltaic component prices increased, and the cost - side supported the price increase. Some projects have accepted higher prices [69] - **Fundamental Data**: Component domestic orders are average, inventory is moderately high, and the production schedule in September is slightly increased to 45GW. Battery export demand is good, inventory is moderately high, and the production schedule is increased to 57GW. Silicon wafer enterprise operating rate increased, weekly production reached 13.88GW, inventory is 16.55GW, and the production in September is expected to be 58GW. Polysilicon production decreased slightly this week, and factory inventory increased to 234,200 tons. The production in September is expected to be flat compared with August, around 130,000 tons [77][83][88][93]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the document regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon remained in a "weak reality" situation in August with both supply and demand increasing, and its price was expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton. The market should pay attention to the second - wave fermentation of the "anti - involution" sentiment and the impact of downstream polysilicon capacity integration [15]. - Polysilicon continued the "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. The short - term focus was on capacity integration policies and downstream price - passing progress. If there was substantial progress in capacity integration in September, the price was expected to rise, with high volatility in the range of 47,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Monthly Key Points Summary** - In August, polysilicon production was 131,700 tons (SMM), a monthly increase of 25,400 tons; cumulative production from January to August was 811,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.67%. DMC production was 219,600 tons (Baichuan Yingfu), a monthly increase of 13,100 tons; cumulative production from January to August was 1.653 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.58%. From January to July, the cumulative production of aluminum alloy was 10.628 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.409 million tons or 15.28%. From January to July, the cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 409,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5,400 tons or 1.33%. At the end of August, industrial silicon inventory was 688,200 tons (Baichuan Yingfu) [13]. - As of August 31, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - permeable) industrial silicon in East China was 8,950 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 600 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,400 yuan/ton, with a discounted futures price of 8,600 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 750 yuan/ton. The average production cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang was 8,395.83 yuan/ton, 9,393.75 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 9,090.48 yuan/ton in Sichuan. In August 2025, industrial silicon production was 370,500 tons (Baichuan Yingfu), a monthly increase of 49,300 tons; cumulative production from January to August was 2.5505 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 538,600 tons or 17.44% [14]. - **Fundamental Assessment** - **Industrial Silicon**: In August, both supply and demand of industrial silicon increased, but it was still in a "weak reality" pattern. The price was expected to fluctuate weakly, with an estimated price range of 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton [15]. - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon continued the "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. The short - term focus was on capacity integration policies and downstream price - passing progress. The price was expected to be highly volatile in the range of 47,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton [17]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Industrial Silicon**: As of August 31, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - permeable) industrial silicon in East China was 8,950 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 600 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,400 yuan/ton, with a discounted futures price of 8,600 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 750 yuan/ton [22]. - **Polysilicon**: As of August 31, 2025, the average price of N - type polysilicon re -投料 was 49 yuan/kg, a monthly increase of 2.5 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 48 yuan/kg, a monthly increase of 2.5 yuan/kg [25]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon - **Total Production**: In August 2025, industrial silicon production was 370,500 tons (Baichuan Yingfu), a monthly increase of 49,300 tons; cumulative production from January to August was 2.5505 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 538,600 tons or 17.44% [30]. - **Production in Main Producing Areas**: The document shows the production trends of industrial silicon in main producing areas such as Xinjiang, Yunnan, Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu through charts [32][34][37]. - **Production Cost**: As of August 31, 2025, the electricity price and silicon coal price in main producing areas remained flat month - on - month. The average production cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang was 8,395.83 yuan/ton, 9,393.75 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 9,090.48 yuan/ton in Sichuan [46]. - **Visible Inventory**: At the end of August, industrial silicon inventory was 688,200 tons (Baichuan Yingfu), remaining at a high level. Factory inventory was 261,400 tons, market inventory was 174,500 tons, and registered warehouse receipt inventory was 252,300 tons [49]. 3.4 Polysilicon - **Production**: In August, polysilicon production was 131,700 tons (SMM), a monthly increase of 25,400 tons; cumulative production from January to August was 811,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.67% [54]. - **Operating Rate and Scheduling**: In August, the operating rate of polysilicon was 45.78% (Baichuan Yingfu), a monthly increase of 6.55 percentage points. SMM predicted that the production in August would be 126,700 tons, with a month - on - month decrease in the operating rate [57]. - **Inventory**: As of August 31, 2025, polysilicon inventory was 233,000 tons (Baichuan Yingfu) and 213,000 tons (SMM), with a certain reduction in factory inventory [60]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of August 31, 2025, the production cost of polysilicon was 41,322.29 yuan/ton (Baichuan Yingfu), and the gross profit was 6,153.90 yuan/ton, showing a continuous month - on - month improvement [63]. - **Silicon Wafer**: In August, silicon wafer production was 56.04 GW (SMM), a monthly increase of 3.29 GW; cumulative production from January to August was 429.12 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 8.77%. As of August 31, 2025, silicon wafer inventory was 18.05 GW (SMM), a slight month - on - month decrease; the predicted production in September was 57.53 GW, a continuous month - on - month increase [66][69]. - **Battery Cell**: In August, battery cell production was 58.27 GW (SMM), a monthly increase of 0.08 GW; the operating rate was 56.89%, a monthly decrease of 2.17 percentage points. Cumulative production from January to August was 446.87 GW, a year - on - year increase of 0.96%. As of September 1, 2025, the inventory of photovoltaic battery export factories was 7.81 GW (SMM), a month - on - month increase; the predicted production in September was 60.04 GW, a slight month - on - month increase [74][77]. - **Module**: In August, module production was 49.2 GW (SMM), a monthly increase of 2.1 GW; the operating rate was 49.09%, a monthly increase of 3.17 percentage points. Cumulative production from January to August was 379.6 GW, a year - on - year increase of 1.31%. As of September 1, 2025, the finished product inventory of photovoltaic modules was 33.9 GW (SMM), a month - on - month decrease; the predicted production in August was 50.3 GW, an increase compared to August [82][85]. 3.5 Organic Silicon - **Production**: In August, DMC production was 219,600 tons (Baichuan Yingfu), a monthly increase of 13,100 tons; cumulative production from January to August was 1.653 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.58% [92]. - **Price and Profit**: As of August 31, 2025, the average price of organic silicon was 10,750 yuan/ton (SMM), a monthly decrease of 1,650 yuan/ton. The gross profit of DMC was - 1,859.38 yuan/ton (Baichuan Yingfu), showing a month - on - month weakening [95]. - **Inventory**: As of August 31, 2025, DMC inventory was 49,300 tons (Baichuan Yingfu), a monthly increase of 3,600 tons [98]. 3.6 Silicon Aluminum Alloy and Export - **Aluminum Alloy**: As of August 31, 2025, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 was 21,140 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 110 yuan/ton; the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 20,770 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 680 yuan/ton. From January to July, the cumulative production of aluminum alloy was 10.628 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.409 million tons or 15.28%. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 56.4%, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 55.3% [103][106]. - **Export**: From January to July, the cumulative net export of industrial silicon in China was 409,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5,400 tons or 1.33% [109].

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 9 月 2 日） 一、研究观点 点评 1 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2511 收于 8495 元/吨，日内涨幅 0.89%，持 仓减仓 6966 手至 28.5 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9364 元/吨，较上 一交易日下调 7 元/吨。最低交割品#421 价格回调至 8600 元/吨，现货 升水扩至 290 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2511 收于 52285 元/吨， 日内涨幅 6.03%，持仓政策 5412 手至 15.04 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅 料价格涨至 49000 元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格跌至 49000 元/吨，现货 贴水扩至 1500 元/吨。工业硅南北复产和晶硅增量成为边际驱动，整体 运行重心有望小幅抬升。前期反内卷消息充分计价后，多晶硅交易重 心逐步偏移至基本面逻辑。因终端电站收益率限制，组件环节对涨价 的接受度见顶，硅料跟随下游市场情绪降温。在具体政策举措出台之 前，市场仍位于政策提振和基本面拖累的博弈之间，多晶硅进入顶底 明显的区间模式，政策动态对盘面有阶段性扰动效应。重点关注 930 工 信部节能专项监察结果以及产业链库存去化 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Hoshine Silicon Industry (合盛硅业), reported a rare operating loss due to a phase imbalance in supply and demand, marking its first loss since disclosing operational performance data [2][3][6]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Hoshine Silicon achieved revenue of 9.775 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.34% [2][3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -397 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 140.6% [2][3]. - The company experienced a significant loss of 657 million yuan in the second quarter, contributing to the overall loss for the first half [2][5]. Historical Context - Historically, Hoshine Silicon's net profit has been positive from mid-2015 to mid-2024, with a peak of 3.545 billion yuan in mid-2022 [4]. - The company had previously faced fluctuations in performance but had never reported a loss until now [3][4]. Market Conditions - The loss was attributed to a phase imbalance in the supply and demand of industrial silicon and polysilicon, alongside declining market prices [2][6]. - The global economy showed weak recovery amid geopolitical tensions and trade frictions, impacting the industry [6]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - Hoshine Silicon reported a significant increase in operating cash flow, reaching 3.524 billion yuan, up 1987.93% from the previous year [8]. - The company's debt-to-asset ratio decreased to 62.83%, down 1 percentage point from the end of 2024 [8]. Competitive Position and Future Outlook - Despite the cyclical downturn, Hoshine Silicon maintained its leading position in industrial silicon and organic silicon markets [2][8]. - The company is focusing on high-value downstream product development and has made advancements in silicon carbide technology, achieving domestic leadership in product yield [9]. - As of the second quarter of 2025, 243 funds increased their holdings in Hoshine Silicon, indicating positive market sentiment towards its future prospects [2][9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views Rubber Industry - New rubber listing is slow, overseas ship arrivals are few, inventory may continue to decline, fundamentals remain strong, and there is still upward potential. The 01 contract range is expected to be between 15,000 - 16,500. Pay attention to the raw material supply during the peak production period in the main producing areas. If the raw material supply is smooth, consider short - selling at high prices [1]. Industrial Silicon Industry - The cost of industrial silicon is rising, and there are news of capacity clearance. In August, supply and demand both increased, maintaining a tight balance. In the long - term, if some capacity is cleared, supply pressure will decrease. It is recommended to buy on dips, but be aware of the pressure from inventory and warehouse receipts [2]. Polysilicon Industry - In August, polysilicon supply and demand both increased, but the supply growth rate was higher, still facing inventory accumulation pressure. Future warehouse receipts are expected to increase. The price will mainly fluctuate at a high level, with the lower limit of the price range rising to 47,000 yuan/ton and the upper limit between 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to buy on dips, and consider short - selling by buying put options at high prices when volatility is low [4]. Log Industry - The current main contract is the 2511 contract, and the market value fluctuates around the delivery cost and receiving value. The fundamentals are expected to improve marginally. The demand remains firm, and the inventory continues to decline. It is recommended to consider buying the 2601 contract on dips [5]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Soda Ash**: The market is in a weak and volatile state. There is no growth expectation for demand, and the inventory may be further pressured. It is recommended to hold short positions [6]. - **Glass**: The market is also in a weak and volatile state. The market has a negative feedback loop, with the near - term 09 contract facing weak reality and the far - term 01 contract facing weak expectations. High - level short positions can be closed for profit and wait for new driving factors [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Rubber Industry Spot Prices and Basis - Yunnan state - owned whole - grade rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai remained at 14,900 yuan/ton. The basis of whole - milk rubber (switched to the 2509 contract) decreased by 21.51% to - 1045 yuan/ton. Thai standard mixed rubber increased by 1.02% to 14,850 yuan/ton [1]. Inter - monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 3.14% to - 982 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 5.88% to - 90 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 3.37% to 1075 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, Thailand's production increased by 44.23% to 392,600 tons, Indonesia's production decreased by 12.03% to 176,200 tons, India's production increased by 30.82% to 62,400 tons, and China's production increased by 6.8 tons to 103,200 tons. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel tires decreased by 0.36% to 72.77%, and that of all - steel tires decreased by 0.92% to 63.84%. In July, domestic tire production decreased by 8.16% to 94.364 million, tire exports increased by 10.51% to 66.65 million, and natural rubber imports increased by 2.47% to 474,800 tons [1]. Inventory Changes - Bonded area inventory decreased by 0.50% to 616,731 tons, and the warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 3.47% to 44,857 tons [1]. Industrial Silicon Industry Spot Prices and Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passed S15530 industrial silicon decreased by 0.54% to 9,250 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 12.26% [2]. Inter - monthly Spreads - The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 40.00% to - 35 yuan/ton, the 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 33.33% to - 10 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Data - National industrial silicon production increased by 3.23% to 338,300 tons, Xinjiang's production decreased by 15.21% to 150,300 tons, Yunnan's production increased by 153.86% to 41,200 tons, and Sichuan's production increased by 31.05% to 48,500 tons. The national开工率 increased by 2.47% to 52.61%. Organic silicon DMC production decreased by 4.54% to 199,800 tons, polysilicon production increased by 5.10% to 101,000 tons, and industrial silicon exports increased by 8.32% to 74,000 tons [2]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang's inventory decreased by 0.83% to 119,100 tons, Yunnan's factory inventory decreased by 0.94% to 31,600 tons, and social inventory decreased by 0.37% to 541,000 tons [2]. Polysilicon Industry Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type re - feed material and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 49,000 yuan/ton and 46,000 yuan/ton respectively. The N - type material basis decreased by 314.52% to - 665 yuan/ton [4]. Futures Prices and Inter - monthly Spreads - The main contract price increased by 2.00% to 49,665 yuan/ton. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract decreased by 180.00% to - 80 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - Weekly polysilicon production increased by 6.53% to 31,000 tons, and monthly polysilicon production increased by 5.10% to 101,000 tons. Monthly polysilicon imports increased by 47.48% to 120 tons, exports decreased by 3.92% to 210 tons, and net exports decreased by 32.44% to 100 tons [4]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory decreased by 14.46% to 213,000 tons, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 3.68% to 180,500 GW [4]. Log Industry Futures and Spot Prices - The log 2509 contract decreased by 0.25% to 790 yuan/cubic meter, the 2511 contract increased by 0.86% to 821.5 yuan/cubic meter, and the 2601 contract increased by 1.03% to 836.5 yuan/cubic meter. The prices of main benchmark delivery spot products remained unchanged [5]. Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate decreased to 7.149, and the import theoretical cost decreased to 814.95 yuan/cubic meter [5]. Monthly Data - Port shipments decreased by 1.51% to 1.733 million cubic meters, and the number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 11.32% to 47 [5]. Inventory and Demand - As of August 22, the national coniferous log inventory was 3.05 million cubic meters, and the daily average log delivery volume was 64,500 cubic meters [5]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry Glass - related Prices and Spreads - North China, East China, Central China, and South China glass quotes remained unchanged. The glass 2509 contract decreased by 1.52% to 970 yuan/ton [6]. Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest soda ash quotes remained unchanged. The soda ash 2505 contract increased by 0.29% to 1379 yuan/ton, and the 2509 contract decreased by 0.29% to 1187 yuan/ton [6]. Supply - Soda ash开工率 decreased by 6.79% to 82.47%, and weekly soda ash production decreased by 6.79% to 719,000 tons. The daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [6]. Inventory - Glass factory inventory decreased by 1.64% to 62,566,000 heavy boxes, soda ash factory inventory decreased by 2.26% to 1.8675 million tons, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 0.89% to 500,700 tons [6]. Real Estate Data - The year - on - year growth rate of new construction area increased by 0.09% to - 0.09%, the construction area decreased by 2.43% to 0.05%, the completion area decreased by 0.03% to - 0.22%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% to - 6.55% [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Glass and Soda Ash - Macro - warming and coking coal accident news drove the soda ash futures to rebound. Fundamentally, weekly production rebounded significantly, and the inventory continued to build up. With current weekly production, demand was significantly in excess. Recently, spot sales were weak. In the medium - term, after the second - quarter PV glass installation rush, PV glass capacity growth slowed, float glass capacity remained flat, and there was still pressure on supply - demand in the future, with potential for further cold - repair. Overall, there was no growth expectation for soda ash demand. Without actual capacity exit or load reduction, inventory would face more pressure. Track policy implementation and soda ash plant load adjustment [1]. Natural Rubber - Persistent rainy weather in internal and external production areas disrupted upstream supply, keeping raw material prices high. The de - stocking rate of spot inventory in Qingdao slowed, and with the incremental release of alternative plantings in Yunnan, China's social inventory increased, intensifying market bearish sentiment. In terms of demand, although agents' purchase volume might slightly increase at the end of the month to meet monthly targets, downstream buyers mainly continued regular restocking. Adverse external factors might slow down trading in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region and potentially halt some mining and engineering operations, negatively affecting replacement demand. Affected by the Fed's dovish stance, market sentiment improved, driving up rubber prices, but prices were expected to fluctuate within a range. The reference range for the 01 contract was 15,000 - 16,500. Monitor raw material supply during the peak production season in major producing areas and consider short - selling if supply is smooth [3]. Polysilicon - In August, polysilicon supply and demand both increased, but the supply growth rate was higher, still facing inventory build - up pressure. Due to the previous sharp price increase above the full - cost level and the addition of two new delivery brands on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, future warehouse receipts were expected to increase. Currently, the price would mainly fluctuate at a high level, with the lower limit of the price range rising to 47,000 yuan/ton and the upper limit between 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. Consider buying on dips. When the price is high, buy put options during low - volatility periods to short. Technically, the futures price might choose a direction to break out in a converging triangle, and consider buying straddle options when volatility is low. Pay attention to position control and risk management [5]. Industrial Silicon - From the cost side, raw material prices started to rise, and electricity prices in the southwest region would gradually increase during the dry season, raising the cost center of industrial silicon. Although industrial silicon production increased month - on - month, there were also news of capacity clearance, with small furnaces potentially shutting down. In August, supply and demand both increased, maintaining a tight balance. If some capacity is cleared in the long - term, supply pressure will ease. Strategically, consider buying on dips. However, note that as production increases, inventory and warehouse receipt pressure are emerging. The main price fluctuation range might be 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and hold long positions established at the previous low of 8,000 - 8,500 [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Prices and Spreads - Glass: North China, East China, Central China, and South China quotes remained unchanged. Glass 2505 rose 0.87% to 1280 yuan/ton, and Glass 2509 rose 0.20%. The 05 basis decreased 8.53% [1]. - Soda Ash: North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest quotes were stable. Soda Ash 2505 rose 1.02% to 1393 yuan/ton, and Soda Ash 2509 was flat. The 05 basis decreased 48.28% [1]. Supply - Soda Ash: The operating rate on August 22 was 88.48%, up 1.33% from August 15, and weekly production was 77.14 tons, up 1.33% [1]. - Glass: Float glass daily melting volume and PV glass daily melting volume remained unchanged [1]. Inventory - Glass factory inventory increased 0.28% to 6360.60 ten - thousand heavy boxes. Soda ash factory inventory rose 0.89% to 191.06 tons, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased 6.37% to 49.63 tons. Glass factory soda ash inventory days remained unchanged [1]. Real Estate Data - New construction area increased 0.09% month - on - month, construction area decreased 2.43%, completion area decreased 0.03%, and sales area decreased 6.50% [1]. Natural Rubber Prices and Spreads - Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai rose 1.37% to 14,850 yuan/ton. The whole latex basis (switched to the 2509 contract) decreased 8.21%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber was flat at 14,600 yuan/ton. The non - standard price difference decreased 27.32% [3]. - In terms of month - to - month spreads, the 9 - 1 spread decreased 5.24%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased 5.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased 5.21% [3]. Fundamental Data - In June, Thailand's production increased 44.23% to 392.60 thousand tons, India's production increased 30.82% to 62.40 thousand tons, and China's production decreased 6.59% to 96.40 thousand tons. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires decreased 1.06% to 72.07%, and that of all - steel tires decreased 1.67% to 63.09%. In July, domestic tire production decreased 8.16% to 9436.40 thousand pieces, and tire exports increased 10.51% to 6031.00 thousand pieces. In June, natural rubber imports decreased 2.47% to 46.34 tons [3]. Inventory Changes - Bonded area inventory decreased 0.50% to 616731 tons. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased 3.47% to 44857 tons. The inbound rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse in Qingdao decreased 3.71%, and the outbound rate decreased 3.28% [3]. Polysilicon Prices and Spreads - Spot prices of N - type polysilicon materials remained unchanged. The N - type material basis (average price) decreased 7.28%. Futures prices: the main contract rose 0.34% to 21580 yuan/ton. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract decreased 26.67%, and the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract increased 36.00% [5]. Fundamental Data - Weekly: Silicon wafer production increased 1.57% to 12.29 GM, and polysilicon production decreased 0.68% to 2.91 tons. - Monthly: Polysilicon production increased 5.10% to 10.10 tons, imports increased 47.48% to 0.12 tons, exports decreased 3.92% to 0.21 tons, and net exports decreased 32.44% to 0.10 tons. Silicon wafer production decreased 10.35% to 52.75 GM, imports decreased 53.06% to 0.03 tons, exports decreased 24.68% to 0.46 tons, and net exports decreased 21.43% to 0.43 tons. Silicon wafer demand increased 0.21% to 58.54 GM [5]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory increased 2.89% to 24.90 tons, silicon wafer inventory decreased 12.07% to 17.41 GM, and polysilicon warehouse receipts increased 1.24% to 6540.00 [5]. Industrial Silicon Prices and Spreads - The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon rose 1.08% to 9320 yuan/ton, and its basis rose 33.66%. The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon rose 2.37% to 8650 yuan/ton, and its basis rose 53.47%. In terms of month - to - month spreads, the 2509 - 2510 spread decreased 75.00%, and the 2510 - 2511 spread increased 100.00% [6]. Fundamental Data - Monthly: National industrial silicon production increased 3.23% to 33.83 tons, Xinjiang's production decreased 15.21% to 15.03 tons, Yunnan's production increased 153.86% to 4.12 tons, and Sichuan's production increased 31.05% to 4.85 tons. The national operating rate increased 2.47% to 52.61%, Xinjiang's decreased 18.21% to 52.59%, Yunnan's increased 133.76% to 32.89%, and Sichuan's increased 56.81% to 36.96%. Organic silicon DMC production decreased 4.54% to 19.98 tons, polysilicon production increased 5.10% to 10.10 tons, recycled aluminum alloy production increased 1.63% to 62.50 tons, and industrial silicon exports increased 8.32% to 7.40 tons [6]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory increased 2.65% to 12.01 tons, Yunnan's increased 1.59% to 3.19 tons, Sichuan's increased 0.89% to 2.28 tons. Social inventory decreased 0.37% to 54.30 tons, warehouse receipt inventory decreased 0.23% to 25.52 tons, and non - warehouse receipt inventory decreased 0.49% to 28.78 tons [6]. Logs Prices and Spreads - Log futures prices: Log 2509 rose 0.31% to 803.5, Log 2511 rose 0.61% to 820.0, and Log 2601 rose 0.67% to 831.5. The 9 - 11 spread decreased to - 16.5, the 9 - 1 spread decreased to - 28.0. The 09 contract basis decreased to - 53.5, the 11 contract basis decreased to - 70.0, and the 01 contract basis decreased to - 81.5. Spot prices of various types of radiation pine and spruce in ports remained unchanged [7]. Supply - Monthly: The volume of logs in transit in ports decreased 1.51% to 173.3 million cubic meters, and the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased 11.32% to 47.0 [7]. Inventory - Weekly: China's main port log inventory decreased 0.33% to 305.00 million cubic meters, Shandong's increased 0.32% to 186.00 million cubic meters, and Jiangsu's increased 1.22% to 99.50 million cubic meters [7]. Demand - Weekly: China's average daily log outbound volume increased 2% to 6.45 million cubic meters, Shandong's decreased 3% to 3.49 million cubic meters, and Jiangsu's increased 4% to 2.42 million cubic meters [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Glass and Soda Ash - In the context of macro - warming and driven by news of coking coal accidents, the soda ash futures market rebounded. Fundamentally, weekly production increased significantly, but the demand was obviously in excess under the current weekly production. In the medium - term, after the second - quarter rush for photovoltaic installation, the growth of photovoltaic glass capacity slowed down, and the float glass capacity remained flat. There is still pressure on supply and demand in the future, and there may be further cold - repair expectations. Without actual capacity withdrawal or load reduction, the inventory will be further pressured. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policies and the load - regulation of soda ash plants [1]. Natural Rubber - Due to continuous rainy weather in both domestic and foreign production areas, upstream supply fell short of expectations, and raw material prices remained high. The de - stocking rate of spot inventory in Qingdao slowed down, and with the incremental release of alternative plantings in Yunnan, China's social inventory increased, intensifying the market's bearish sentiment. In terms of demand, although agents may slightly increase their purchases to meet monthly tasks at the end of the month, downstream demand mainly continues with regular replenishment. Affected by external factors, trading in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region may slow down, and mining and engineering operations in some other regions may be suspended, which is negative for the replacement demand. Overall, affected by the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve, market sentiment improved, driving up rubber prices, but rubber prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. The reference range for the 01 contract is 15,000 - 16,500. Follow - up attention should be paid to the raw material supply during the peak production season in the main production areas, and short positions can be considered if the raw material supply goes smoothly [3]. Polysilicon - In August, both supply and demand of polysilicon increased, but the supply growth rate was relatively large, and there was still pressure on inventory accumulation. Due to the previous sharp rise in prices above the full - cost level and the addition of two new delivery brands by the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, it is expected that the number of warehouse receipts will further increase. Currently, attention can be paid to the constraints of energy consumption and green - electricity ratio in promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity. The price will mainly fluctuate at a high level, with the lower limit of the price fluctuation range rising to 47,000 yuan/ton and the upper limit possibly between 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to try long positions on dips. When the price is high, put options can be bought during low - volatility periods to try short positions. Technically, the futures price may choose a direction to break through in a converging triangle, and straddle options can be bought when the volatility is low. Investors are advised to pay attention to position control and risk management in advance [5]. Industrial Silicon - From the cost perspective, raw material prices started to rise, and the electricity price in the southwest region will gradually increase during the dry season, causing the cost center of industrial silicon to rise. Although the production of industrial silicon increased month - on - month recently, there were also news of production - capacity clearance, and small furnaces may be shut down. In terms of supply and demand, both supply and demand increased in August, maintaining a tight balance. If some production capacity is cleared in the long - term, the supply pressure will be reduced. It is recommended to try long positions on dips. However, it should be noted that as production increases, inventory and warehouse - receipt pressure are emerging. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and long positions established at the previous low level of 8,000 - 8,500 yuan/ton should be held [6]. Logs - No overall core view is explicitly stated in the log report, but data on price, supply, inventory, and demand are presented. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Prices and Spreads - Glass:华北报价1140元/吨,华东报价1190元/吨,华中报价1090元/吨,华南报价1230元/吨,价格 remained unchanged. Glass 2505 rose 0.87% to 1280 yuan/ton, and Glass 2509 rose 0.20% to 999 yuan/ton. The 05 basis decreased by 8.53% to - 140 yuan/ton [1]. - Soda Ash:华北报价1350元/吨,华东 and华中报价1250元/吨,西北报价1020元/吨, all unchanged. Soda Ash 2505 rose 1.02% to 1393 yuan/ton, and Soda Ash 2509 remained unchanged at 1226 yuan/ton. The 05 basis decreased by 48.28% to - 43 yuan/ton [1]. Supply - Soda Ash: The operating rate on August 22 was 88.48%, up 1.33% from August 15, and the weekly output was 77.14 tons, up 1.33% [1]. - Float Glass: The daily melting volume remained unchanged at 15.96 tons [1]. - Photovoltaic Glass: The daily melting volume remained unchanged at 89,290 tons [1]. Inventory - Glass Factory: The inventory on August 22 was 63.606 million weight - boxes, up 0.28% from August 15 [1]. - Soda Ash Factory: The inventory on August 22 was 1.9106 million tons, up 0.89% from August 15. The inventory in delivery warehouses was 496,300 tons, up 6.37% [1]. Real Estate Data - New Construction Area: The current value is - 0.09%, up 0.09% from the previous value [1]. - Construction Area: The current value is 0.05%, down 2.43% from the previous value [1]. - Completion Area: The current value is - 0.22%, down 0.03% from the previous value [1]. - Sales Area: The current value is - 6.55%, down 6.50% from the previous value [1]. Natural Rubber Prices and Spreads - Spot: Yunnan state - owned whole - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai rose 1.37% to 14,850 yuan/ton. The whole - latex basis (switched to the 2509 contract) decreased by 8.21% to - 1,055 yuan/ton. Thai standard mixed rubber remained unchanged at 14,600 yuan/ton. The non - standard price difference decreased by 27.32% to - 1,305 yuan/ton [3]. - Raw Materials: The FOB mid - price of cup rubber in the international market rose 0.71% to 49.50 Thai baht/kg, and the FOB mid - price of glue rose 0.45% to 55.00 Thai baht/kg [3]. - Futures Month - to - Month Spreads: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5.24% to - 1005 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 5.00% to - 100 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 5.21% to 1110 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamentals - Production: In June, Thailand's production was 392,600 tons, up 44.23%; India's production was 62,400 tons, up 30.82%; Indonesia's production was 176,200 tons, down 12.03%; China's production was 103,200 tons, down 6.80% [3]. - Tire Production: In July, domestic tire production was 94.364 million pieces, down 8.16%; tire exports were 66.65 million pieces, up 10.51% [3]. - Import: In June, the total import of natural rubber was 474,800 tons, up 2.47%. In July, the import of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) was 630,000 tons, up 5.00% [3]. Inventory - Bonded Area: The inventory was 616,731 tons, down 0.50% [3]. - Futures Warehouse: The inventory of natural rubber in the SHFE was 44,857 tons, down 3.47% [3]. - Warehouse Rates: In Qingdao, the inbound rate of dry rubber in bonded warehouses decreased by 3.71%, and the outbound rate increased. The inbound rate of dry rubber in general trade decreased by 0.72%, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.32% [3]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - N - type Reclaimed Feedstock: The average price remained unchanged at 49,000 yuan/ton. The N - type material basis (average price) decreased by 7.28% to - 2,580 yuan/ton [5]. - N - type Silicon Wafers: The average price of 210mm wafers and 210R wafers remained unchanged at 1.58 yuan/piece and 1.38 yuan/piece respectively [5]. - Cells and Components: The average prices of single - crystal Topcon cells (210R), Topcon components (210mm for distributed), and N - type 210mm components for centralized projects remained unchanged [5]. Futures Prices and Month - to - Month Spreads - The main contract rose 0.34% to 21,580 yuan/ton. The current - to - first - continuous spread decreased by 26.67% to - 190 yuan/ton, the first - to - second - continuous spread increased by 36.00% to 170 yuan/ton, and the second - to - third - continuous spread remained unchanged [5]. Fundamentals - Weekly: The silicon wafer production was 12.29 GM, up 1.57%; the polysilicon production was 29,100 tons, down 0.68% [5]. - Monthly: The polysilicon production was 101,000 tons, up 5.10%; the import was 12,000 tons, up 47.48%; the export was 21,000 tons, down 3.92%; the net export was 10,000 tons, down 32.44%. The silicon wafer production was 52.75 GM, down 10.35%; the import was 30,000 tons, down 53.06%; the export was 460,000 tons, down 24.68%; the net export was 430,000 tons, down 21.43%. The silicon wafer demand was 58.54 GM, up 0.21% [5]. Inventory - Polysilicon: The inventory was 249,000 tons, up 2.89%; the number of warehouse receipts was 6,540, up 1.24% [5]. - Silicon Wafers: The inventory was 17.41 GM, down 12.07% [5]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - East China Oxygen - Passed SI5530: The price rose 1.08% to 9,320 yuan/ton, and the basis rose 33.66% to 675 yuan/ton [6]. - East China SI4210: The price remained unchanged at 9,000 yuan/ton, and the basis rose 127.27% to 125 yuan/ton [6]. - Xinjiang 99 Silicon: The price rose 2.37% to 8,650 yuan/ton, and the basis rose 53.47% to 775 yuan/ton [6]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 75.00% to - 35 yuan/ton; the 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 100.00% to 0 yuan/ton; the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 4.29% to - 365 yuan/ton; the 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 100.00% to 10 yuan/ton; the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 140.00% to - 20 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamentals - Production: National industrial silicon production was 338,300 tons, up 3.23%. Xinjiang's production was 150,300 tons, down 15.21%; Yunnan's production was 41,200 tons, up 153.86%; Sichuan's production was 48,500 tons, up 31.05% [6]. - Operating Rate: The national operating rate was 52.61%, up 2.47%. Xinjiang's operating rate was 52.59%, down 18.21%; Yunnan's operating rate was 32.89%, up 133.76%; Sichuan's operating rate was 36.96%, up 56.81% [6]. - Other Productions: Organic silicon DMC production, polysilicon production, and recycled aluminum alloy production also had corresponding changes [6]. - Exports: Industrial silicon exports were 74,000 tons, up 8.32% [6]. Inventory - Xinjiang Factory: The inventory was 120,100 tons, up 2.65% [6]. - Yunnan Factory: The inventory was 31,900 tons, up 1.59% [6]. - Sichuan Factory: The inventory was 22,800 tons, up 0.89% [6]. - Social Inventory: The inventory was 543,000 tons, down 0.37% [6]. - Warehouse Receipt Inventory: The inventory was 255,200 tons, down 0.23% [6]. - Non - Warehouse Receipt Inventory: The inventory was 287,800 tons, down 0.49% [6]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log Futures: Log 2509 rose 0.31% to 803.5 yuan/ton; Log 2511 rose 0.61% to 820 yuan/ton; Log 2601 rose 0.67% to 831.5 yuan/ton. The 9 - 11 spread decreased to - 16.5 yuan/ton, the 9 - 1 spread decreased to - 28 yuan/ton. The 09 contract basis decreased to - 53.5 yuan/ton, the 11 contract basis decreased to - 70 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract basis decreased to - 81.5 yuan/ton [7]. - Spot: The prices of various types of radiation pine and spruce in Rizhao and Taicang ports remained unchanged [7]. Outer - Market Quotes - The CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiation pine remained at 116 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, and the CFR price of 11.8 - meter spruce remained at 128 euros/JAS cubic meter [7]. Cost - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate decreased to 7.158 yuan, and the import theoretical cost decreased to 815.94 yuan [7]. Supply - In July, the shipping volume in the port was 1.733 million cubic meters, down 1.51% from June. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 47, down 11.32% [7]. Inventory - China: The inventory was 3.05 million cubic meters, down 0.33% [7]. - Shandong: The inventory was 1.86 million cubic meters, up 0.32% [7]. - Jiangsu: The inventory was 995,000 cubic meters, up 1.22% [7]. Demand - China: The daily average outbound volume was 64,500 cubic meters, up 2% [7]. - Shandong: The daily average outbound volume was 34,900 cubic meters, down 3% [7]. - Jiangsu: The daily average outbound volume was 24,200 cubic meters, up 4% [7].

Report 1: Natural Rubber 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided 2. Core View The current natural rubber market lacks clear directional guidance, with long and short positions intertwined. The price is expected to fluctuate in a range, with the 01 contract's reference range at 15,000 - 16,500 yuan/ton. Follow-up attention should be paid to the raw material supply situation during the peak production period in the main producing areas. If the raw material supply increases smoothly, consider shorting at high prices [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex in Shanghai on August 19 was 14,850 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or 0.34% from the previous day. The whole milk basis (switched to the 2509 contract) was - 920 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan or 11.41% [1]. - The price of Thai standard mixed rubber on August 19 was 14,650 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 0.34% from the previous day [1]. Monthly Spread - The 9 - 1 spread on August 19 was - 995 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 3.86% from the previous day [1]. - The 1 - 5 spread was - 82 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 10.53% from the previous day [1]. - The 5 - 9 spread was 1080 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or - 4.42% from the previous day [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, Thailand's natural rubber production was 392.6 thousand tons, up 120.4 thousand tons or 44.23% from the previous month. Indonesia's production was 176.2 thousand tons, down 24.1 thousand tons or - 12.03% [1]. - The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.07%, down 2.28 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.00%, down 2.09 percentage points from the previous week [1]. - In July, domestic tire production was 9436.4 million pieces, down 838.5 million pieces or - 8.16% from the previous month. Tire export volume was 6665.0 million pieces, up 634.0 million pieces or 10.51% [1]. Inventory Change - As of August 19, the bonded area inventory (bonded + general trade inventory) was 619,852 tons, down 11,918 tons or 1.89% from the previous day [1]. - The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE (weekly) was 46,469 tons, up 4234 tons or 10.02% from the previous week [1]. Report 2: Polysilicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided 2. Core View Last week, the polysilicon price fluctuated strongly. It is expected to mainly fluctuate at a high level, with the lower limit of the price fluctuation range rising to 47,000 yuan/ton and the upper limit between 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. Consider buying on dips, and buy put options to short at high prices when the volatility is low. Also, consider buying straddle options when the volatility is low [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type reclaimed materials on August 19 was 47,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2]. - The N - type material basis (average price) was - 5260 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 0.38% from the previous day [2]. Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The price of the main contract on August 19 was 52,260 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 0.04% from the previous day [2]. - The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract was - 215 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan or 59.26% from the previous day [2]. Fundamental Data - Weekly polysilicon production was 2.93 million tons, down 0.01 million tons or 0.34% from the previous week. Weekly silicon wafer production was 12.10 GM, up 0.08 GM or 0.67% [2]. - Monthly polysilicon production was 10.10 million tons, up 0.49 million tons or 5.10% from the previous month. Monthly polysilicon imports were 0.08 million tons, down 0.02 million tons or 16.90% [2]. Inventory Change - The polysilicon inventory was 24.20 million tons, up 0.90 million tons or 3.86% from the previous day. The silicon wafer inventory was 19.80 GM, up 0.69 GM or 3.61% [2]. Report 3: Industrial Silicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided 2. Core View Last week, the industrial silicon price fluctuated strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. If the price falls to the low level of 8000 - 8500 yuan/ton, consider buying on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Main Contract Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passed SI5530 industrial silicon on August 19 was 9400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. - The basis of East China SI4210 industrial silicon (based on SI4210) was 325 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 5.80% from the previous day [3]. Monthly Spread - The spread between the 2509 and 2510 contracts on August 19 was - 30 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 50.00% from the previous day [3]. - The spread between the 2510 and 2511 contracts was 10 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 300.00% from the previous day [3]. Fundamental Data - Monthly national industrial silicon production was 33.83 million tons, up 1.06 million tons or 3.23% from the previous month. Xinjiang's production was 15.03 million tons, down 2.70 million tons or 15.21% [3]. - The national industrial silicon operating rate was 52.61%, up 1.27 percentage points or 2.47% from the previous month [3]. Inventory Change - The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory (weekly) on August 19 was 11.70 million tons, up 0.01 million tons or 0.09% from the previous day [3]. - The social inventory (weekly) was 54.50 million tons, down 0.20 million tons or 0.37% from the previous day [3]. Report 4: Glass and Soda Ash 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided 2. Core View Soda Ash The soda ash futures market is weak. The fundamental situation is in obvious surplus, and the demand has no growth expectation. Short positions can continue to be held [4]. Glass The glass market is in a continuous weak operation. The market negative feedback continues, and the overall spot price is difficult to increase further. The long - term industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass - Related Price and Spread - The North China glass quotation on August 19 was 1150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The glass 2505 contract price was 1291 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan or 1.30% from the previous day [4]. - The 05 basis was - 141 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan or 10.76% from the previous day [4]. Soda Ash - Related Price and Spread - The North China soda ash quotation on August 19 was 1350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The soda ash 2505 contract price was 1413 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan or 2.01% from the previous day [4]. - The 05 basis was - 63 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan or 31.52% from the previous day [4]. Supply - The soda ash operating rate on August 15 was 87.32%, up 2.24 percentage points from August 8. The weekly soda ash production was 76.13 million tons, up 1.7 million tons or 2.23% [4]. - The float glass daily melting volume was 15.96 million tons, unchanged from August 8 [4]. Inventory - The glass factory - warehouse inventory on August 15 was 6342.60 million heavy boxes, up 157.9 million heavy boxes or 2.55% from August 8 [4]. - The soda ash factory - warehouse inventory on August 15 was 189.38 million tons, up 2.9 million tons or 1.54% from August 8 [4]. Report 5: Log Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided 2. Core View The log futures price is currently oscillating in a range. The fundamentals are expected to improve marginally, and the spot market is strong in the short - term. It is recommended to participate in buying on dips, focusing on the support level around 800 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures and Spot Price - The log 2509 contract price on August 19 was 810.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.5 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day. The 9 - 11 spread was - 14.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 1.5 yuan from the previous day [5]. - The price of 3.9A small radiata pine at Rizhao Port on August 19 was 720 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day [5]. Cost - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate on August 19 was 7.183, up 0.001 from the previous day. The import theoretical cost was 818.77 yuan, up 0.15 yuan from the previous day [5]. Supply - The port shipping volume in July was 173.3 million cubic meters, down 2.7 million cubic meters or 1.51% from June [5]. - The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan and South Korea was 47.0, down 6.0 or 11.32% from the previous period [5]. Inventory - The main port inventory in China on August 15 was 306.00 million cubic meters, down 2.0 million cubic meters or 0.65% from August 8 [5]. - Shandong's inventory was 185.40 million cubic meters, down 7.2 million cubic meters or 3.74% from August 8 [5]. Demand - The average daily log outbound volume in China on August 15 was 6.33 million cubic meters, down 0.09 million cubic meters or 1% from August 8 [5]. - Shandong's average daily outbound volume was 3.59 million cubic meters, down 0.05 million cubic meters or 1% from August 8 [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, with support at 8,000 yuan/ton, while keeping an eye on potential industry policies [15]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with support levels at 47,000 and 44,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the impact of warehouse receipts on prices and the progress of capacity integration [17]. Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Highlights** - Polysilicon weekly production (Baichuan Yingfu) was 29,200 tons, continuing to rise but still lower than the same period in 2024; DMC production was 51,400 tons, a week-on-week increase of 200 tons [13]. - The spot price of 553 (non-oxygenated) industrial silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton week-on-week; 421 was 9,750 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 8,950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week-on-week. The futures main contract (SI2511) closed at 8,805 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton [14]. - The average production cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang was 8,345.83 yuan/ton, Yunnan 9,393.75 yuan/ton, Sichuan 9,100 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 9,040 yuan/ton [14]. - Industrial silicon weekly production (Baichuan) was 84,700 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1,300 tons; from January to June, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy was 9.097 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.089 million tons or 13.6%; the cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 335,500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15,800 tons or 4.49% [14]. - Industrial silicon inventory (Baichuan Yingfu) was 692,800 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1,200 tons, remaining at a high level [14]. - **Fundamental Assessment** - For industrial silicon, 553 and 421 are at a premium to the futures, costs are basically stable, supply continues to increase this week, demand improves marginally, and inventory remains high [15]. - For polysilicon, the futures are at a premium, supply increases week-on-week, profit is positive, demand improves slightly, and inventory remains high [17]. 02. Spot and Futures Market - **Industrial Silicon** - As of August 15, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non-oxygenated) industrial silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton week-on-week; 421 was 9,750 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 8,950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week-on-week. The futures main contract (SI2511) closed at 8,805 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton [22]. - **Polysilicon** - As of August 15, 2025, the average price of N-type polysilicon reclaimed material (SMM) was 47 yuan/kg, unchanged week-on-week; N-type dense material was 46 yuan/kg, unchanged week-on-week. The futures main contract (PS2511) closed at 52,740 yuan/ton, up 1,950 yuan/ton [25]. 03. Industrial Silicon - **Total Production** - As of August 15, 2025, industrial silicon weekly production (Baichuan) was 84,700 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1,300 tons; in July 2025, production was 321,200 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 9,800 tons; from January to July, the cumulative year-on-year decrease was 464,500 tons or 17.56% [30]. - **Production in Main Producing Areas** - No specific production data for each main producing area was summarized in the text, but there are relevant production trend charts [32][34]. - **Production Cost** - As of August 15, 2025, electricity prices in main producing areas were flat week-on-week, and silica prices were stable week-on-week [43]. - The average production cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang was 8,345.83 yuan/ton, Yunnan 9,393.75 yuan/ton, Sichuan 9,100 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 9,040 yuan/ton [46]. - **Visible Inventory** - As of August 15, 2025, industrial silicon inventory (Baichuan Yingfu) was 692,800 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1,200 tons, remaining at a high level. Factory inventory was 267,300 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1,100 tons; market inventory was 172,500 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1,000 tons; registered warehouse receipt inventory was 253,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1,300 tons [49]. 04. Polysilicon - **Production** - As of August 15, 2025, polysilicon weekly production (Baichuan Yingfu) was 29,200 tons, continuing to rise but still lower than the same period in 2024; in July (SMM), production was 106,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 5,300 tons; from January to July, cumulative production was 679,400 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 41.03% [54]. - **Operating Rate and Scheduled Production** - In July (Baichuan Yingfu), the polysilicon operating rate was 39.23%, a month-on-month increase of 3.91 percentage points. SMM expects August production to be 130,500 tons, with the operating rate continuing to rise [57]. - **Inventory** - As of August 15, 2025, polysilicon factory inventory (Baichuan Yingfu) was 267,900 tons; inventory (SMM) was 242,000 tons, remaining at a high level compared to the same period [60]. - **Cost and Profit** - As of August 15, 2025, polysilicon production cost (Baichuan Yingfu) was 41,453.24 yuan/ton, a slight week-on-week increase; gross profit was 3,784.86 yuan/ton [63]. - **Downstream Products** - **Silicon Wafer**: As of August 15, 2025, weekly production (SMM) was 12.1 GW, a slight week-on-week increase; in July, production was 52.75 GW, a month-on-month decrease of 6.09 GW; from January to July, cumulative production was 373.08 GW, a year-on-year decrease of 10.31%. Inventory was 19.8 GW, a slight week-on-week increase; August production is predicted to be 53.29 GW, a slight month-on-month increase [66][69]. - **Battery Cell**: In July (SMM), production was 58.19 GW, a month-on-month increase of 0.12 GW; the operating rate was 62.4%, a month-on-month increase of 3.32 percentage points. From January to July, cumulative production was 388.6 GW, a year-on-year increase of 1.06%. Inventory was 4.98 GW, a slight week-on-week increase; August production is expected to be 59.15 GW, a slight month-on-month increase [74][77]. - **Component**: In July (SMM), production was 47.1 GW, a month-on-month increase of 0.8 GW; the operating rate was 45.92%, a month-on-month increase of 0.72 percentage points. From January to July, cumulative production was 330.4 GW, a year-on-year increase of 1.47%. Inventory was 34.5 GW, continuing to rise week-on-week; August production is expected to be 46.82 GW, a decrease from July [82][85]. 05. Silicone - **Production** - As of August 15, 2025, DMC production (Baichuan Yingfu) was 51,400 tons, a week-on-week increase of 200 tons; in July, production was 206,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 6,300 tons; from January to July, cumulative production was 1.4334 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.17% [92]. - **Price and Profit** - As of August 15, 2025, the average price of silicone (SMM) was 11,400 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 750 yuan/ton; DMC gross profit (Baichuan Yingfu) was -1,659.38 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decline [95]. - **Inventory** - As of August 15, 2025, DMC inventory (Baichuan Yingfu) was 48,500 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1,400 tons [98]. 06. Silicon Aluminum Alloy and Exports - **Aluminum Alloy** - As of August 15, 2025, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 was 21,130 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 70 yuan/ton; the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 20,410 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 120 yuan/ton; from January to June, the cumulative output was 9.097 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.089 million tons or 13.6% [103]. - The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 56.6%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy was 53% [106]. - **Exports** - From January to June, the cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 335,500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15,800 tons or 4.49% [109].