（文章来源：第一财经） 合盛硅业公告，预计2025年年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润为-33亿元到-28亿元，与上年同期相 比，将出现亏损。2025年，公司所处行业整体经历阶段性供需结构调整，产品价格面临下行压力。受光 伏产业链供需关系变化影响，工业硅市场需求同比显著收缩，销售价格随之下行。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon inventory has shifted to accumulation, and short - term attention should be paid to downstream production cuts. With a supply - demand logic leaning towards the bearish side, a strategy of shorting on rallies can be adopted, such as shorting when the price rebounds to 8800 - 9000 and taking profit at 8200 - 8300 [6]. - The polysilicon futures price fluctuates within a range, and attention should be paid to the details of the rectification measures next Tuesday. The supply - demand situation shows weak supply and strong demand, and the futures price is expected to remain above the full - cost line of 45,000 yuan/ton. It is not recommended to participate in futures, and options can be considered [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Trends This Week - Industrial silicon futures prices have fallen from highs and fluctuated widely, with spot prices remaining flat. The futures price closed at 8605 yuan/ton on Friday, and the SMM - reported prices of Xinjiang 99 - silicon and Inner Mongolia 99 - silicon were unchanged from the previous period [2]. - Polysilicon futures prices fluctuated within a range. Some funds may have traded on the expectation of a platform rectification plan next Tuesday, and the futures price closed at 50,200 yuan/ton on Friday. There is an expectation of price loosening in the upstream of the polysilicon spot market, and attention should be paid to the next restocking node of downstream enterprises in late January [2]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Fundamentals 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply side: The weekly industry inventory has slightly increased. Xinjiang's production has increased, while Sichuan and Inner Mongolia's production has decreased. The overall weekly output has slightly decreased month - on - month. The Southwest has entered the dry season, and local production has dropped to a very low level. Some factories in Xinjiang are still in a heat - preservation state, and some have slightly resumed production. The social inventory has increased by 0.3 million tons, and the factory inventory has increased by 0.42 million tons, with a total industry inventory increase of 0.7 million tons [3]. - Demand side: Downstream demand is weak. In the polysilicon field, there is short - term production reduction, and if further production cuts are implemented, the demand for industrial silicon will decrease. In the organic silicon field, production has decreased this week, and there are plans for further production cuts. Although the logic of price support is difficult to succeed, the cancellation of export tax rebates may lead to pre - emptive exports and some consumption increments. In the aluminum alloy field, manufacturers purchase reasonably at low prices and are more cautious at other times. Overseas demand in the export market has not improved [4]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Supply side: Short - term weekly output has decreased month - on - month. In January 2026, silicon material manufacturers reduced production passively due to inventory pressure. The inventory of silicon material manufacturers has increased month - on - month, and downstream procurement is relatively cautious. The current factory inventory is around 320,000 tons, and the industry inventory is about 500,000 tons, close to five months of consumption [4]. - Demand side: The silicon wafer production schedule has increased month - on - month. The silicon wafer inventory is relatively reasonable in January, and the price increase has been passed on to downstream, supporting the increase in production. The cancellation of export tax rebates may lead to a peak season for component and cell exports in the first quarter, boosting terminal demand [5]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Industrial silicon: With inventory accumulation and a supply - demand situation of both weak supply and demand, the upside of the futures price is limited. However, short - term sentiment speculation and the preference of funds for low - valuation varieties limit the downside. A strategy of shorting on rallies can be adopted, with a predicted next - week futures price range of 8200 - 9000 yuan/ton [6][7]. - Polysilicon: The futures price fluctuates within a range. The supply - demand situation is of weak supply and strong demand, and the futures price is expected to remain above the full - cost line of 45,000 yuan/ton. The release of the rectification plan next Tuesday will support the futures price. It is not recommended to participate in futures, and options can be considered. The predicted next - week futures price range is 45,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [7]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short industrial silicon at high prices. For polysilicon, consider options instead of futures [6][7]. - Inter - period: No recommendation [8]. - Hedging: It is recommended that upstream industrial silicon factories conduct short - hedging [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, with inventory accumulation and expected downstream production cuts, the supply - demand logic is bearish. It is recommended to short at high prices, with a predicted price range of 8200 - 9000 yuan/ton next week [6][7] - For polysilicon, pay attention to the market sentiment boost next Tuesday. The supply is weak and demand is strong, and the price is expected to stay above the cost line of 45,000 yuan/ton. The predicted price range next week is 45,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. Futures participation is not recommended, but options can be considered [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - The reference prices of industrial silicon in mainstream consumption areas and the transaction prices in three major ports/warehouses have remained stable from December 25, 2025, to January 16, 2026 [10] 2. Industrial Silicon Supply Side - Smelting and Raw Material Ends - This week, the weekly industrial silicon inventory increased slightly. The social inventory increased by 0.3 million tons, and the factory inventory increased by 0.42 million tons, with a total increase of 0.7 million tons. The start - up in Xinjiang increased, while that in Sichuan and Inner Mongolia decreased [3][11] - The cost in the southwest region during the dry season is estimated to be 10,000 - 10,500 yuan/ton (converted to the futures price), and the local start - up has dropped to a very low level. Some factories in Xinjiang are still in the heat - preservation state, and some have slightly resumed production [3] 3. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Polysilicon - This week, the polysilicon futures fluctuated within a range, and the spot price was stable. The upstream spot price may be loosened, and attention should be paid to the next restocking node of downstream in late January [2] - The short - term weekly polysilicon output decreased. In January 2026, silicon material manufacturers cut production passively to relieve high - inventory pressure. The current manufacturer inventory is around 320,000 tons, and the industry inventory is about 500,000 tons, close to five months of consumption [4] - The silicon wafer production schedule increased week - on - week in January. The silicon wafer inventory is relatively reasonable, and price increases can be passed on to the downstream, supporting the increase in production. The component export tax rebate will be cancelled in April, which is expected to boost terminal demand [5] 4. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Silicone - This week, the weekly production of silicone decreased, and there are plans for further production cuts in the future to support prices. However, considering the off - season demand and medium - to - high inventory, the price - support logic is difficult to work. The export tax rebate for silicone will be cancelled after April 1, and the pre - emptive export may bring some consumption increments [4] 5. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum alloy ingot manufacturers stock up on industrial silicon reasonably. They are more active in purchasing at low prices and more wait - and - see at other times. The overseas demand in the export market has not improved [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon is expected to experience a supply - demand double decline and fluctuate weakly. The supply of polysilicon is shrinking, and it will operate with fluctuations [16][18]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Demand**: Polysilicon weekly output was 22,000 tons, down week - on - week. DMC output was 43,600 tons, a decrease of 400 tons week - on - week. From January to November, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy was 17.456 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.895 million tons or 19.88%. From January to November, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 651,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12,400 tons or 1.95% [14]. - **Inventory**: As of January 16, 2026, the industrial silicon inventory was 510,400 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons week - on - week. Factory inventory was 263,000 tons, down 3,900 tons week - on - week; market inventory was 191,000 tons, unchanged; registered warehouse receipt inventory was 56,400 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons week - on - week [14]. - **Price and Cost**: The spot price of 553 (non - oxygenated) industrial silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,650 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 8,850 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The futures main contract (SI2605) closed at 8,605 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton week - on - week. The cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang was 8,487.50 yuan/ton, Yunnan was 9,720.00 yuan/ton, Sichuan was 9,600.00 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia was 8,960.00 yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply**: The weekly output of industrial silicon was 78,400 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons week - on - week [15]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Industrial Silicon**: As of January 16, 2026, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygenated) industrial silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,650 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 8,850 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The futures main contract (SI2605) closed at 8,605 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton week - on - week. The 553 (non - oxygenated) had a premium of 595 yuan/ton over the futures main contract, with a basis ratio of 6.47%; the 421 had a premium of 245 yuan/ton over the main contract, with a basis ratio of 2.77% [23]. - **Polysilicon**: As of January 16, 2026, the average price of polysilicon N - type re -投料 was 54.85 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg week - on - week; the average price of N - type dense material was 54.35 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1 yuan/kg week - on - week. The futures main contract (PS2605) closed at 50,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,100 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis of the main contract was 4,650 yuan/ton, with a basis ratio of 8.48% [26]. 3. Industrial Silicon - **Total Output**: As of January 16, 2026, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 78,400 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons week - on - week. In December 2025, the output of industrial silicon was 355,900 tons, a decrease of 4,200 tons month - on - month. The cumulative output from January to December 2025 decreased by 652,300 tons or 13.86% year - on - year [31]. - **Output in Main Producing Areas**: Relevant graphs show the output trends of industrial silicon in Sichuan, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu [30][33][35]. - **Production Cost**: As of January 16, 2026, the electricity price and silicon stone price in the main producing areas were unchanged week - on - week. The silicon coal price in the main producing areas was also unchanged week - on - week. The average cost in Xinjiang was 8,487.50 yuan/ton, Yunnan was 9,720.00 yuan/ton, Sichuan was 9,600.00 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia was 8,960.00 yuan/ton [43][46]. - **Visible Inventory**: As of January 16, 2026, the industrial silicon inventory was 510,400 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons week - on - week. Factory inventory was 263,000 tons, down 3,900 tons week - on - week; market inventory was 191,000 tons, unchanged; registered warehouse receipt inventory was 56,400 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons week - on - week [49]. 4. Polysilicon - **Output**: As of January 16, 2026, the weekly output of polysilicon was 22,000 tons, down week - on - week. In December 2025, the output of polysilicon was 115,500 tons, an increase of 900 tons month - on - month. The cumulative output from January to December 2025 was 1.3052 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.46% [54]. - **Capacity Utilization and Scheduling**: In December 2025, the capacity utilization rate of polysilicon was 42.23%, a decrease of 1.95 percentage points month - on - month. It is predicted that the output of polysilicon in January 2026 will continue to decline [57]. - **Inventory**: As of January 16, 2026, the factory inventory of polysilicon was 316,800 tons, and the SMM -口径 inventory was 321,000 tons [60]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of January 16, 2026, the production cost of polysilicon was 42,969.05 yuan/ton, and the gross profit was 16,241.47 yuan/ton [63]. - **Silicon Wafer**: The weekly output of silicon wafers was 10.83 GW, a slight increase week - on - week. In December 2025, the output of silicon wafers was 43.9 GW, a decrease of 10.47 GW month - on - month. The cumulative output from January to December 2025 was 647.09 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 0.46%. The inventory of silicon wafers was 24.78 GW, down week - on - week. It is predicted that the output of silicon wafers in January 2026 will be 45.2 GW, basically unchanged month - on - month [66][69]. - **Battery Cell**: In December 2025, the output of battery cells was 46.76 GW, a decrease of 8.85 GW month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of photovoltaic batteries was 47.11%, a decrease of 8.93 percentage points month - on - month. The cumulative output from January to December 2025 was 669.48 GW, a year - on - year increase of 1.95%. The inventory of photovoltaic battery export factories was 9.04 GW, an increase week - on - week. It is expected that the output of battery cells in January 2026 will be 39.36 GW, a significant decrease month - on - month [75][78]. - **Module**: In December 2025, the output of modules was 38.7 GW, a decrease of 8.2 GW month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of modules was 37.57%, a decrease of 8.14 percentage points month - on - month. The cumulative output from January to December 2025 was 563.2 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 1.21%. The finished product inventory of photovoltaic modules was 30.4 GW, basically unchanged week - on - week. It is predicted that the output of modules in January 2026 will be 32.47 GW, a decrease from December [83][86]. 5. Silicone - **Output**: As of January 16, 2026, the output of DMC was 43,600 tons, a decrease of 400 tons week - on - week. In December 2025, the output of DMC was 204,800 tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons month - on - month. The cumulative output from January to December 2025 was 2.477 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.93% [93]. - **Price and Profit**: As of January 16, 2026, the average price of silicone was 13,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton week - on - week. The gross profit of DMC was 1,921.88 yuan/ton [96]. - **Inventory**: As of January 16, 2026, the DMC inventory was 43,300 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons week - on - week [99]. 6. Silicon - Aluminum Alloy and Exports - **Aluminum Alloy**: As of January 16, 2026, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 was 24,280 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 23,890 yuan/ton, an increase of 170 yuan/ton week - on - week. From January to November, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy was 17.456 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.895 million tons or 19.88%. The capacity utilization rate of primary aluminum alloy was 58.6%, and the capacity utilization rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 58% [104][107]. - **Exports**: From January to November, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 651,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12,400 tons or 1.95% [110].

Core Viewpoint - The Shandong Economic Development Zone aims to enhance its economic quality and efficiency by focusing on a "3+1" industrial system, which includes new materials, health food and medicine, intelligent manufacturing, and new energy, while implementing a collaborative reform across five chains: industrial, innovation, service, funding, and talent [1] Group 1: Strengthening Resilient Industrial Chains - The development plan addresses issues of scattered industrial layout and weak chain connections by implementing a "three closed-loop, two agglomeration, one leading" strategy to eliminate industrial bottlenecks [2] - A closed-loop system for the silicon materials industry is being established, involving major enterprises and creating a comprehensive supply chain from silicon ore to glass products, targeting a hundred billion-level industry [2] - The molybdenum materials industry is also being upgraded through a closed-loop system, enhancing the production of high-end molybdenum products [2] - The traditional Chinese medicine industry is being developed into a full production process chain, promoting local medicinal materials and establishing a strong brand [2] Group 2: Activating Forward-looking Innovation Chains - The focus is on collaborative innovation through platforms, talent acquisition, and effective transformation to address resource dispersion and talent shortages [4] - Innovation resources are being centralized through the establishment of technology platforms and research centers, leading to significant advancements in key technologies [4] - A talent matching model is being implemented to align skilled personnel with industry needs, resulting in the creation of specialized teams to tackle technical challenges [4] - A closed-loop mechanism for innovation is being established to ensure that research outcomes meet industry demands, fostering a healthy cycle of technology commercialization [4] Group 3: Enhancing Quality Service Chains - Continuous optimization of the business environment is being pursued through innovative service models that enhance efficiency and reduce costs [6] - A dual-party signing model for joint investment is being implemented to facilitate major projects, alongside a comprehensive support system for new enterprises [6] - Customized services are being offered to reduce operational costs for businesses, including tailored facilities and energy supply solutions [6][7] Group 4: Streamlining Diverse Funding Chains - A multi-channel funding supply system is being constructed to meet the financial needs of enterprises at different development stages [8] - A robust investment strategy is being adopted, with a focus on attracting significant projects and ensuring substantial investments [8] - Financial support mechanisms are being established to facilitate easier access to funding for local enterprises [9] Group 5: Solidifying High-end Talent Chains - A comprehensive talent supply system is being developed to attract, utilize, and retain skilled professionals essential for high-quality industrial development [10] - Innovative personnel management practices are being introduced to enhance talent mobility and collaboration across regions [10] - Platforms for practical training and mentorship are being established to develop young professionals into key contributors [10][11]

Group 1 - The "National Employment and Social Security Advanced Private Enterprises and Caring for Employees Achieving Win-Win Award Ceremony" was held, recognizing 6 private enterprises and 2 individuals from Guangdong Province for their contributions to employment and social security [1] - Five private enterprises from Guangdong received the title of "National Employment and Social Security Advanced Private Enterprises," including Vipshop (China) Co., Ltd., Huizhou EVE Energy Co., Ltd., Guangdong JY Technology Co., Ltd., Guangdong Micro容 Electronic Technology Co., Ltd., and Jin Sanjiang (Zhaoqing) Silicon Materials Co., Ltd. [1] - Vipshop (China) Co., Ltd. has recruited over 1,000 college graduates through its "Youth with Vipshop" campus recruitment project and has employed 209 disabled employees [1] - Huizhou EVE Energy Co., Ltd. has become a globally competitive lithium battery platform with over 28,000 employees worldwide, including 7,960 employees in the parent company by 2024 [1] - Guangdong JY Technology Co., Ltd. has established three production bases in Meizhou, creating numerous quality job opportunities for local villagers and industrial workers [1] Group 2 - Guangdong Micro容 Electronic Technology Co., Ltd. has provided over 2,800 job opportunities in the past five years through innovative models such as "online live streaming job placement" and "town and village officials leading job placements," achieving a 100% signing rate for labor contracts and social insurance participation [2] - Jin Sanjiang (Zhaoqing) Silicon Materials Co., Ltd. focuses on product innovation and process technology optimization, forming a research and development team composed of PhDs, Masters, and technical experts [2] Group 3 - Guangdong Haida Group Co., Ltd. was awarded the "National Double Love and Double Evaluation Advanced Enterprise Union," creating five service platforms for employees and aiming for high-quality development [4] - Jianfan Biotechnology Group Co., Ltd.'s chairman, Dong Fan, received the "National Caring for Employees Excellent Private Entrepreneur" award, emphasizing the importance of employees as the most valuable asset for enterprise development [4] - Yejie, an engineer at Keshun Waterproof Technology Co., Ltd., was recognized as a "National Employee Who Loves the Enterprise," having worked in the construction waterproofing field for 21 years and receiving multiple honors [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon supply - demand is difficult to improve, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The price increase is mainly due to commodity sentiment, and it may face pressure when the market sentiment changes. Attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [14]. - For polysilicon, after the exchange's risk - control measures, the futures position has declined, trading volume has shrunk, and liquidity has tightened. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It's advisable to observe the actual spot transactions and changes in risk - control measures [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - As of December 31, 2025, in the East China region, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - blown) industrial silicon was 9200 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 150 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9650 yuan/ton, with a discounted futures price of 8850 yuan/ton, also a monthly decrease of 150 yuan/ton [13][22]. - In December 2025, the industrial silicon output was 35.59 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42 tons. The 1 - 12 month cumulative output was 405.52 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 65.23 tons or 13.86% [30]. - The 1 - 12 month cumulative output of polysilicon was 130.52 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.46%. The DMC output from January to December was 247.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.93%. The cumulative output of aluminum alloy from January to November was 1745.6 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 289.50 tons or 19.88%. The cumulative net export of industrial silicon from January to November was 65.14 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.24 tons or 1.95% [13]. - At the end of December, the industrial silicon inventory was 50.33 tons, with factory inventory at 26.62 tons, market inventory at 19.00 tons, and registered warehouse - receipt inventory at 4.71 tons [13][49]. 3.2 Spot - Futures Market - Industrial silicon: As of December 31, 2025, in the East China region, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - blown) industrial silicon was 9200 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 150 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9650 yuan/ton, with a discounted futures price of 8850 yuan/ton, also a monthly decrease of 150 yuan/ton [13][22]. - Polysilicon: As of December 31, 2025, the average price of SMM - statistical N - type polysilicon re - feedstock was 53 yuan/kg, a monthly increase of 0.7 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 51.5 yuan/kg, a monthly increase of 0.5 yuan/kg [16][25]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon - Total output: In December 2025, the industrial silicon output was 35.59 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42 tons. The 1 - 12 month cumulative output was 405.52 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 65.23 tons or 13.86% [30]. - Main production areas: The average production cost in Xinjiang was 8487.50 yuan/ton, 9720.00 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 9775.00 yuan/ton in Sichuan [13][46]. - Production cost: As of December 31, 2025, the electricity price in the main production areas remained flat month - on - month, and the silicon stone price was stable month - on - month. The silicon coal price in the main production areas also remained flat month - on - month [43][46]. - Visible inventory: At the end of December, the industrial silicon inventory was 50.33 tons, with factory inventory at 26.62 tons, market inventory at 19.00 tons, and registered warehouse - receipt inventory at 4.71 tons [13][49]. 3.4 Polysilicon - Output: In December, the SMM - caliber polysilicon output was 11.22 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.09 tons. The 1 - 12 month cumulative output was 130.52 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.46% [16][54]. - Operating rate and production schedule: The operating rate in November was 44.18%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.91 percentage points. The estimated output in January was 10.78 tons, a month - on - month decrease [57]. - Inventory: At the end of December, the polysilicon inventory was 30.83 tons according to the Baichuan Yingfu caliber and 30.6 tons according to the SMM caliber, with factory inventory accumulating [15][60]. - Cost and profit: At the end of December, the production cost was 42321.68 yuan/ton, and the gross profit was 7888.84 yuan/ton, with relatively good profits [63]. - Downstream: In December, the silicon wafer output was 43.9GW, a month - on - month decrease of 10.47GW; the battery output was 46.76GW, a month - on - month decrease of 8.85GW; the component output was 38.7GW, a month - on - month decrease of 8.2GW [15]. 3.5 Silicone - Output: In December, the DMC output was 20.48 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.47 tons. The 1 - 12 month cumulative output was 247.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.93% [92]. - Price and profit: As of December 31, 2025, the average price of silicone was 13600 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 400 yuan/ton, and the DMC gross profit was 1659.38 yuan/ton [95]. - Inventory: At the end of December, the DMC inventory was 4.4 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.07 tons [98]. 3.6 Silicon - Aluminum Alloy and Exports - Aluminum alloy: As of December 31, 2025, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 was 22820 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 910 yuan/ton; the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 22510 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 1180 yuan/ton. The cumulative output from January to November was 1745.6 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 289.50 tons or 19.88%. At the end of December, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 58.6%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy was 60% [103][106]. - Exports: From January to November, the cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 65.14 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.24 tons or 1.95% [109].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon inventory is accumulating, and the short - term supply has disturbance expectations. The fundamentals show a situation of weak supply and demand. It is necessary to pay attention to the production - cut and price - support actions of upstream factories. It is expected that short - term emotional speculation may drive up the market, but the upside space is limited. It is recommended to short at high levels after a rebound and set a stop - profit at low levels, with the expected price range next week being 8500 - 9300 yuan/ton. Upstream industrial silicon factories are recommended to conduct short - hedging [7][8][9] - The polysilicon market is in a state of high - level shock. The supply and demand are both weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the production - cut situation of silicon material manufacturers in January. The market may focus on the improvement of supply - demand relationship brought about by production cuts. The expected price range next week is 55000 - 65000 yuan/ton [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - The report provides the reference prices of mainstream consumption areas and the transaction prices of three major ports/warehouses for industrial silicon from December 15, 2025, to December 31, 2025, including Si5530, Si4210, and Si3303 [11] 2. Industrial Silicon Supply Side - Smelting and Raw Material Ends - Supply: In the short term, the weekly production of industrial silicon has a slight month - on - month increase. The start - up in the southwest region has decreased due to the dry season, and the cost in the dry season is 10000 - 10500 yuan/ton. In December, the production reduction in the southwest increased, and although some factories in Xinjiang resumed production, the overall production in December decreased month - on - month. The factories in Xinjiang also have heat - preservation measures, which marginally reduce the short - term supply [3] - Inventory: This week, the social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.2 million tons, and the factory inventory increased by 0.68 million tons, with a total industry inventory increase of 0.88 million tons. The current social inventory is 55.7 million tons, and the factory inventory is 20.2 million tons [3][12] 3. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Polysilicon - Supply: The short - term weekly production of polysilicon decreased month - on - month. In December, some manufacturers reduced production, but some also resumed production, with an estimated monthly output of 11.35 million tons. In January 2026, manufacturers are expected to cut production in an orderly manner to relieve high inventory. The current inventory of manufacturers has reached 30 million tons [4] - Demand: The weekly production scheduling of silicon wafers decreased month - on - month. In December, the production scheduling decreased due to the decline in terminal demand. The current silicon wafer inventory is at a relatively reasonable level, which supports the firm price of silicon wafers and is transmitted to the prices of downstream batteries and components [6] 4. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Silicone - Supply: The weekly production of silicone decreased this week, and some monomer plants continued to operate at a reduced load. Since December, silicone enterprises have cut production to support prices, but the actual sustainability remains to be verified [4] - Demand: Currently, it is the off - season for demand, and the silicone inventory is relatively high. The logic of price - support is difficult to be realized [4] 5. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Aluminum Alloys - Aluminum alloy ingot manufacturers make reasonable stockpiling of the industrial silicon market, with high enthusiasm for purchasing at low prices and strong wait - and - see sentiment at other times [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the given report. 2. Core View - On the supply side, the production center continues to shift to the northwest. On the demand side, the production schedule of polysilicon in December remains basically stable, but the terminal demand is weak, and subsequent production schedules may mainly involve production cuts. Due to joint production cuts to support prices, the production schedule of silicone in December is declining. On the inventory side, inventories are continuously accumulating. Overall, for industrial silicon, supply increases while demand decreases, inventory fluctuates, and prices may fluctuate [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Contract Prices and Fluctuations**: SI 2601 has a closing price of 7604, SI 2602 at 90286, SI 2603 at 8680, SI 2604 at 8715, and SI 2605 at 221065. Their price fluctuations are -1.03%, -0.97%, -0.97%, -0.46%, and -0.68% respectively [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between si2601 - si2602 is -35 with a change of -5, and the spread between si2602 - si2603 is -20 with a change of 5. The spread between 421 spot and 553 oxygen - passed spot is 400 [1]. - **Basis**: The basis (East China 553 spot - main contract) is 535 with a change of 165 [1]. Spot Market - **Prices of Different Grades**: In the East China region, 553 (non - oxygenated) is priced at 9200, 553 (hydrogen - passed) at 9250, 421 at 9650, 441 at 9400, and 3303 at 10350. In Huangpu Port, 553 (hydrogen - passed) is 9300 and 421 is 9900. In Tianjin Port, 553 (hydrogen - passed) is 9600 and 421 is 9750. In Kunming, 421 is 10000, and in Sichuan, 421 is 9800. All price changes are 0 [1]. - **Related Product Prices**: DMC price is 13600, 107 glue is 14150, polysilicon (dense material, per kilogram) is 51, and the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 is 22400 with a change of 400 [1]. Warehouse Inventory - **Inventory Data**: The total inventory is 7.95 tons. The inventory at various warehouses such as Zhongchu Wusong, Zhongchu Chengdu Tianyi, etc., shows different levels, and the total inventory has increased by 480 from yesterday [1]. Industry Dynamics - **Project Information**: On November 14, the online approval and supervision platform for investment projects in Jiangxi Province announced the filing information for the annual production project of 137,500 tons of organic silicon new materials by Jiangxi Xinfang High - Tech Yongxiu [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side production schedule has decreased but remains at a high level, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8615 - 8815 [3][4]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side production schedule will decrease in the short - term and is expected to recover in the medium - term. The demand side shows continuous decline in silicon wafer, cell, and module production, with overall demand in continuous recession and cost support remaining stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 55320 - 57680 [7][8]. - The main logic for the market is capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment. The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' shutdown and production reduction plans, while the main bearish factors are slow post - holiday demand recovery and strong supply but weak demand in downstream polysilicon [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply was 87,000 tons, a 1.13% decrease compared to the previous week [3]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 77,000 tons, a 4.93% decrease compared to the previous week, and demand remains sluggish [3]. - Inventory: Polysilicon inventory is 303,000 tons (high), organic silicon inventory is 43,900 tons (low), and aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 71,000 tons (high). Social inventory is 555,000 tons (a 0.36% increase), sample enterprise inventory is 195,600 tons (a 1.61% increase), and major port inventory is 140,000 tons (a 1.45% increase) [3]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 2874 yuan/ton, and cost support has increased during the dry season [3]. - Basis: On December 29, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 485 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - Market: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above MA20 [3]. - Main positions: The main positions are net short, and short positions have decreased [3]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the production was 25,300 tons, a 1.20% increase compared to the previous week. The production schedule for December is expected to be 113,500 tons, a 0.95% decrease compared to the previous month [7]. - Demand: Last week, silicon wafer production was 10.33GW (a 3.18% decrease), and inventory was 216,900 tons (a 0.88% increase). Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. In December, the production schedule for silicon wafers is 45.7GW (a 15.94% decrease compared to the previous month); in November, cell production was 55.61GW (a 6.17% decrease), and last week, the inventory of cell external sales factories was 8.63GW (a 14.21% decrease). Currently, cell production is in a loss state. In December, the production schedule for cells is 48.72GW (a 12.38% decrease); in November, module production was 46.9GW (a 2.49% decrease), and in December, the expected module production is 39.99GW (a 14.73% decrease). Currently, module production is profitable [7]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,600 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,400 yuan/ton [7]. - Basis: On December 29, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 4100 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [7]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 303,000 tons, a 3.41% increase compared to the previous week, and it is at a high level compared to the same period in history [7]. - Market: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below MA20 [7]. - Main positions: The main positions are net short, and short positions have decreased [7]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures closing prices: All contracts showed a decline, with the decline rate ranging from 0.99% to 2.30% [15]. - Basis: The basis of most contracts increased, with the increase rate ranging from 16.67% to 138.48% [15]. - Some contract spreads: The spread between the near - month and the next - month contract decreased by 16.67%, and the spread between the next - month and the second - next - month contract increased by 20.00% [15]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of registered warehouse receipts was 9907, a 5.09% increase compared to the previous period [15]. - Organic silicon: The weekly DMC production was 43,100 tons, a 6.10% decrease compared to the previous week. The daily capacity utilization rate remained unchanged at 65.53%. The daily DMC price remained unchanged at 13,600 yuan/ton. The monthly DMC inventory was 43,900 tons, a 22.02% decrease compared to the previous month [15]. - Aluminum alloy: The daily SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 22,400 yuan/ton, a 1.82% increase compared to the previous day. The daily import ADC12 actual immediate profit was 323 yuan/ton, a 5.21% increase compared to the previous day [15]. - Spot prices: The spot prices of various types of silicon in East China remained unchanged [15]. - Inventory: The weekly social inventory was 555,000 tons, a 0.36% increase compared to the previous week. The weekly sample enterprise inventory was 195,600 tons, a 1.61% increase compared to the previous week. The weekly major port inventory was 140,000 tons, a 1.45% increase compared to the previous week [15]. - Production/operating rate: The weekly production of sample enterprises was 45,700 tons, a 0.02% decrease compared to the previous week. The weekly operating rates of enterprises in Xinjiang increased by 0.58%, while those in Yunnan decreased by 9.21% [15]. - Cost - profit: The cost and profit of various types of silicon in different regions remained unchanged [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Futures closing prices: All contracts showed a decline, with the decline rate ranging from 1.89% to 5.63% [17]. - Basis: The basis of most contracts increased, with the increase rate ranging from 19.09% to 37.45% [17]. - Silicon wafers: The prices of various types of silicon wafers remained unchanged. The weekly silicon wafer production was 12.9GW, a 5.74% increase compared to the previous week. The weekly silicon wafer inventory was 26.5GW, a 22.06% decrease compared to the previous week [17]. - Cells: The prices of various types of cells remained mostly unchanged. The weekly inventory of photovoltaic cell external sales factories was 8.63GW, a 14.21% decrease compared to the previous week. The monthly photovoltaic cell production was 55.61GW, a 6.18% decrease compared to the previous month [17]. - Modules: The prices of various types of modules remained unchanged. The monthly module production was 46.9GW, a 2.49% decrease compared to the previous month. The domestic module inventory was 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease compared to the previous month. The European module inventory was 33.1GW, a 6.50% decrease compared to the previous month [17]. - Polysilicon: The prices of various types of polysilicon remained unchanged. The weekly total inventory was 303,000 tons, a 3.41% increase compared to the previous week [17].