Core Viewpoint - Tesla is preparing for a potential significant decline in quarterly revenue, with expectations of an 11% year-over-year drop to $22.6 billion in Q2, marking the largest quarterly sales decline since 2012 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Tesla's automotive business, which contributed 90% of revenue and 94% of gross profit in 2024, is currently facing challenges, with Q2 deliveries reported at 384,000 vehicles, a 13% year-over-year decline [4] - Deutsche Bank predicts Q2 revenue will reach $22.2 billion, driven by a higher mix of the new Model Y Juniper, leading to a 4% increase in average selling price (ASP) to $41,600 [4] - Gross margin for the automotive business, excluding carbon credits, is expected to improve from 12.5% in Q1 to approximately 14% in Q2, with overall GAAP gross margin projected at 16.9%, surpassing market expectations of 16.4% [4] - Barclays forecasts a 10% decline in delivery volume for 2025, with consensus EPS expectations dropping from over $3.20 to $1.84 [6] Group 2: Future Outlook - Tesla's delivery target for 2025 is set cautiously at 1.58 million units, lower than the market expectation of 1.62 million, primarily due to delays in the low-cost Model Q [6] - The upcoming Model Y long-wheelbase version is expected to contribute approximately 50,000 units in Q4 [9] - The Robotaxi business is seen as a new growth engine, with plans to expand the fleet to over 1,000 vehicles in the next 6 to 9 months, targeting cities like San Francisco and Phoenix [10][11] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Valuation - Tesla's stock price is heavily reliant on investor confidence in its long-term vision, with approximately 95% of its current valuation tied to future potential rather than current financial performance [3] - Despite the challenges, Tesla's stock remains highly valued at 142 times expected profits, compared to the Nasdaq index at 100 times [7] Group 4: Policy and Competitive Landscape - The potential end of the EV tax credit in the U.S. by September 2025 could lead to a significant drop in sales, as about 20% of Tesla's global sales benefit from this subsidy [12] - Competition from Xiaomi's SU7 is noted, although Tesla's Model 3 sales in China have not been significantly impacted since the SU7 launch [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Tesla deployed 9.6 gigawatt-hours of energy storage products in the second quarter [1]

Group 1 - Tesla deployed 9.6 gigawatt-hours of energy storage products in the second quarter [1]

Group 1 - Fluence Energy Inc. (FLNC) saw a significant stock price increase of nearly 19%, reaching an intraday high of $5.98, the highest since May 13 [1] - The company is part of the "Trump Tariff Losers Index," indicating its stock performance is noteworthy within this context [1] - Analysts from JPMorgan believe that the Senate's budget reconciliation draft, which differs from the House's already passed version, is favorable for the energy storage sector [1] Group 2 - In contrast, solar stocks have experienced substantial declines, with Sunrun down 42.7%, SolarEdge down 39.2%, Enphase Energy down 25.8%, First Solar down 17.7%, and SPWR down 13.1% [1]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in May, with Powell indicating that rate cuts may depend on inflation trends, while also mentioning that tariff policies could impact the economy [3] - The Fed's stance suggests a cautious approach, balancing between not wanting to cut rates immediately and being wary of potential economic downturns due to tariffs [3] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 410,000 barrels per day in June, leading to a drop in oil prices to $58 per barrel for WTI and below $62 for Brent [3] - Short-term oil price fluctuations are anticipated to remain between $55 and $60, with long-term trends dependent on Chinese demand [3] Group 3: Tesla's Financial Performance - Tesla's automotive business profits have plummeted by 70%, while energy storage deployment has more than doubled, with Powerwall installations exceeding 1 GWh in a single quarter [4] - Rising supply chain costs in China by 15% and a decrease in Shanghai factory utilization to 75% pose challenges for Tesla [4] - Key factors to monitor include the production progress of the 4680 battery and regulatory risks associated with the Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, which are critical for stock performance [4] Group 4: US-China Trade Relations - The US has canceled tariff exemptions on small packages from China, indicating a complex negotiation stance, while China is assessing the situation [5] - A potential easing of trade tensions could benefit export stocks, but an escalation in conflict may strengthen sectors like rare earths and semiconductors [5]