Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the upcoming public offering of the Guangfa Hengsheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Themed ETF, which aims to raise up to 3 billion RMB and will be available for subscription from June 9 to June 20, 2025 [1] - The ETF closely tracks the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Themed Index, which focuses on 30 pure technology companies listed in Hong Kong, covering key sectors such as software services, semiconductors, and professional retail [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index, including Xiaomi, Tencent, and Alibaba, account for over 76% of the index, indicating high concentration and growth potential [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Themed Index has recorded a 28.91% increase over the past three years, significantly outperforming the Hang Seng Index (+9.88%) and the Hang Seng Technology Index (+14.88%) [2] - Guangfa Securities notes that as the dividend sector adjusts, funds are moving away from defensive assets, which could benefit the technology sector with potential incremental capital inflow [3] - Key catalysts in the technology industry for June include the conclusion of the 232 investigation and significant developments in consumer electronics, AI domestic models, and commercial aerospace, which are expected to create at least pulse-level opportunities [3] Group 3 - Guotai Junan Securities highlights that each market cycle has a leading industry, with the current AI industry cycle potentially driving the Hong Kong stock market upward [4] - The fundamentals indicate high capital expenditure growth and the gathering of scarce assets in Hong Kong's technology sector, which is expected to benefit from the AI narrative and accelerate earnings release [4] - Despite potential disruptions from the trade environment, policy efforts are expected to drive fundamental recovery, with continued optimism for the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in the technology sector [4]

Group 1: USD Outlook - The USD index has shown a downward trend since the beginning of the year, primarily influenced by tariff policies, with a peak at 109 in early 2025 and a drop below 100 in April[1][7]. - Short-term fluctuations in the USD index are expected, with limited downward space before potential Fed rate cuts, while medium to long-term pressures include ongoing US debt issues, recession risks, and de-dollarization narratives[1][7]. - Key factors suppressing the USD include the continuous evolution of US debt issues, recession risks compounded by high interest rates, and the narrative of de-dollarization[1][7]. Group 2: HK Stock Market Strategy - Following a joint statement from China and the US on May 12, the Hang Seng Index rose nearly 3%, but the upward trend did not sustain, leading to a "wait and see" market attitude[2][10]. - Southbound capital inflows continue but at a slower pace, with over HKD 16.5 billion net inflow into the banking sector, while the technology sector faced a net outflow exceeding HKD 20.5 billion[2][10]. - The current valuation of the Hang Seng Index is slightly below pre-tariff levels, indicating a gradual recovery in market sentiment[2][10]. Group 3: US Economic Outlook - The outlook for the US economy remains unclear due to fluctuating tariff policies and their impact on inflation, with a potential rise in overall inflation post-tariff implementation[3][14]. - The US federal budget deficit for the first half of 2025 has exceeded USD 1.3 trillion, marking the second-highest deficit for a half-year period in history[3][14]. - The combination of rising interest rates and upcoming debt ceiling negotiations presents significant challenges for US fiscal policy in the latter half of 2025[3][14]. Group 4: US Stock Market Outlook - Major US indices have recovered from significant declines, reflecting investor confidence in the US economic fundamentals and policy adjustments[4][17]. - The anticipated tax cuts from the "Beautiful America Act" are expected to create structural opportunities in the US stock market, particularly benefiting traditional energy and local automotive sectors[4][17]. - Despite the challenges posed by fluctuating tariff policies, the US stock market is projected to exhibit a volatile upward trend in the second half of 2025[4][17]. Group 5: US Treasury Yield Trends - US long-term treasury yields have risen above 5%, with the 20-year and 30-year yields maintaining levels above 5.0% since late May[5][21]. - The increase in yields is attributed to the downgrade of the US credit rating by Moody's and concerns over the debt ceiling, which may lead to increased treasury supply and liquidity withdrawal[5][21]. - The expectation of delayed Fed rate cuts due to inflation concerns is likely to keep treasury yields elevated for an extended period[5][21].