Group 1 - The ongoing overheating of the military industry is exacerbating the decline of Russia's civilian industries, particularly in bank loans and labor attraction [1] - Major industrial companies in Russia are placing employees on leave or laying them off due to a slowdown in the war economy, stagnant domestic demand, and depleted exports, affecting sectors from railways and automobiles to metals, coal, diamonds, and cement [1] - The largest cement manufacturer in Russia, Cemros, has extended its four-day workweek policy until the end of the year to preserve all employees amid declining cement demand, which is expected to be less than 60 million tons this year, similar to the pandemic period [4] Group 2 - The Russian economy's non-military sectors have shrunk by 5.4% since the beginning of the year, with GDP growth forecasted to slow significantly to between 0.7% and 1.0% for the year [4] - Labor issues are emerging even in state-owned enterprises, with reports of over 60 workers at a power plant staging a strike due to months of unpaid wages, highlighting legal protections for workers in Russia [4] - The energy sector, a pillar of the Russian economy, is facing increased sanctions from the West and ongoing direct sanctions from Ukraine, impacting its operational capacity [5] Group 3 - Continuous attacks from Ukraine are causing a decline in Russian refining capacity, forcing the country to sell more oil at lower prices, with major oil export ports nearing historical maximum levels [7] - In August, profits from energy sales in Russia dropped to the lowest level since 2022, averaging €546 million per day [10] - Goldman Sachs predicts a 10% decline in Russian oil production by next year, from 9.3 million barrels per day to 8.4 million barrels per day, due to ongoing pressures on refining capacity and high benchmark interest rates [11]

Core Insights - The article discusses the economic influence of Gen Z and millennials, highlighting their consumption trends and preferences, which are shifting the market dynamics [3][5][14] - It also emphasizes the current favorable conditions for home buyers, particularly in mid-October, as a prime time to purchase homes due to lower competition and better pricing [28][29][40] Group 1: Economic Influence of Gen Z and Millennials - Gen Z and millennials represent nearly 48% of the global population, making their consumption trends crucial for investors [5] - This demographic is increasingly focused on value-based shopping, favoring non-branded local brands over luxury items [6][10] - They are digital natives, engaging primarily in e-commerce and digital experiences rather than traditional retail [7][11] - Their investment preferences are shifting towards digital assets like bitcoin, contrasting with older generations' preference for gold [12][14] Group 2: Housing Market Trends - The week of October 12th to 18th is identified as the best time to buy a home, with more listings and less competition [28][29] - Buyers can expect to save approximately $15,000 compared to peak prices seen in the summer, which averaged around $440,000 [34] - The housing market is experiencing a seasonal slowdown, but lower mortgage rates are expected to stimulate activity in the fall [40][41] - Current mortgage rates are below 6.5%, providing additional relief for potential buyers [41][42]

Core Insights - The diamond market is experiencing a significant downturn, with declining sales and imports indicating a broader trend of reduced consumer demand for diamonds [2][20][27]. Group 1: Company Performance - De Beers reported a 21% year-on-year decline in revenue for the first half of 2024, amounting to $2.2 billion (approximately 159.7 billion RMB), with natural rough diamond sales dropping by 22% to 11.9 million carats [4][5]. - The company has revised its 2024 natural diamond production forecast downwards from 26-29 million carats to 23-26 million carats due to market conditions [6][7]. - De Beers' revenue and sales have been on a downward trend since before 2023, with projections indicating that 2024 figures could be half of those in 2022 [12][8]. Group 2: Market Trends - Global natural diamond production is expected to reach 118 million carats in 2023, a 20% decrease from 148 million carats in 2018, reflecting a shrinking demand [15][16]. - China's diamond import value fell to $5.972 billion in 2023, a 29.55% decrease year-on-year and a 39.6% drop compared to 2021, indicating a significant decline in consumption [17][20]. - The Shanghai Diamond Exchange reported a total transaction value of $3.109 billion in 2023, down 29.7% year-on-year and less than half of the 2021 figures, further illustrating the market's downturn [22][23]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The rise of lab-grown diamonds is significantly impacting the natural diamond market, with lab-grown diamond sales in China projected to reach 4 million carats by 2025, increasing market penetration from 6.7% in 2021 to 13.8% [34][29]. - The price of lab-grown diamonds has decreased from 80% of natural diamond prices in 2016 to 35% in 2020, indicating a growing price advantage for lab-grown options [46][29]. - De Beers has attempted to enter the lab-grown diamond market with its Lightbox brand but has faced challenges due to its lack of competitive production capacity compared to Chinese firms [47][48].

Core Viewpoint - The American Gem Trade Association (AGTA) has issued a ban on the exhibition of lab-grown diamonds, claiming it aims to "maintain market stability" and promote "natural beauty," which is seen as a reaction to the rapid growth of the lab-grown diamond industry in China [1][7]. Industry Summary - As of April 2024, lab-grown diamonds have surpassed natural diamonds in the U.S. retail market, accounting for over 56.8% of the market share, indicating a significant market shift [3]. - The price of a 1-carat lab-grown diamond with D color, VVS clarity, and 3EX cut is approximately 8,000 yuan, making it difficult for the traditional diamond narrative based on scarcity to sustain itself [3]. - The primary source of this lab-grown diamond boom is Zhecheng, Henan, which produces 6 million carats annually, representing 44% of global capacity [3]. - Zheguang diamonds, produced using high-temperature high-pressure (HTHP) technology, have achieved mass production of D color diamonds, and the introduction of "commemorative diamonds" has further integrated emotional significance into the product [3][5]. - The first month of sales for commemorative diamonds on platforms like JD and Taobao exceeded one million yuan, with custom orders of diamonds over 5 carats making up 70% of sales [3]. Competitive Advantage - Zheguang diamonds have gained international certifications (GIA, IGI) and possess chemical and optical properties indistinguishable from natural diamonds, with a clarity rating of D color [5]. - The production process has a 37% lower electricity consumption compared to traditional methods, and the price of a 1-carat lab-grown diamond is only 5% to 10% of that of a natural diamond [5]. - The incorporation of traditional Chinese design elements into the diamonds has shifted the perception of diamonds from a Western aesthetic symbol to a more culturally inclusive product [5]. Market Impact - The price index for natural diamonds is projected to drop significantly by 34% in 2024, forcing De Beers to reduce its mining output to the lowest levels of the century [5][7]. - The AGTA's ban highlights the dilemma faced by traditional diamond companies, as they struggle to maintain their premium pricing in light of the FTC's recognition of lab-grown diamonds as "real diamonds" since 2018 [7]. - The ban may backfire, as retail sales of lab-grown diamonds are expected to increase by 43% in 2024, while traditional diamond companies face debt crises and bankruptcies [7].

Group 1 - De Beers has historically dominated the diamond industry, controlling 90% of the global rough diamond supply at its peak, and has been a key player in shaping market prices and availability through strategic marketing and supply limitations [2][4][28] - The company's marketing strategy, epitomized by the slogan "A Diamond is Forever," has significantly influenced consumer behavior, with the engagement ring wearing rate in the U.S. rising from 10% in 1939 to 75% today [1][2] - However, De Beers is currently facing significant challenges, with a reported revenue drop from approximately $6.6 billion in 2022 to $4.3 billion in 2023, and a staggering 40% decline in rough diamond sales [15][12][20] Group 2 - The diamond market is experiencing a shift due to increased competition from new mining regions and the rise of synthetic diamonds, which are now accepted by over 80% of U.S. consumers [28][34] - De Beers' market share has decreased to less than 30%, with competitors like Russia's Alrosa gaining ground, leading to a significant reduction in pricing power [28][29] - The overall demand for diamonds is declining, particularly in the context of changing consumer preferences and a decrease in marriage rates, which has historically been a primary driver of diamond sales [50][53] Group 3 - In 2023, De Beers reported a net loss of $314 million, the highest in 15 years, and a 44% drop in rough diamond sales in the first quarter compared to the previous year [15][12][24] - The company has resorted to price cuts and production reductions to manage excess inventory, yet these measures have not resulted in a significant recovery in sales [20][22] - The broader luxury goods market is also struggling, with major brands like Gucci and LVMH experiencing stock price declines, indicating a wider trend affecting the luxury sector [47][49]

Core Viewpoint - Belgium's exports to the U.S. have significantly declined due to a 15% tariff imposed on EU goods, leading to a trade deficit for the first time in years [1] Export Performance - From May to July, Belgium's total exports to the U.S. decreased by 12.1%, with a notable drop of 13.9% in July alone [1] - The automotive sector experienced a drastic decline of 45% in exports, while the chemical and pharmaceutical industries saw reductions of 30% and 20%, respectively [1] - The diamond and technology sectors also faced negative impacts from the tariff [1] Trade Balance - In the previous year, Belgium's total exports to the U.S. amounted to €27 billion, with over half attributed to pharmaceutical products [1] - The trade balance shifted from a surplus of €600 million in 2024 to a deficit of €2.2 billion during the May to July period due to the larger decline in exports compared to imports [1] Market Sentiment - Analysts indicate that Belgian and other EU companies are in a wait-and-see mode due to the unpredictable nature of U.S. trade policies under the Trump administration [1] - Although a 15% tariff agreement was reached, the lack of clarity on exempted products has led to uncertainty among businesses [1]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high, closing up 0.24% at 3884.71 points, while the Shenzhen Component rose 0.15%. The ChiNext Index fell by 0.52%, and the North Star 50 dropped 1.26%. The STAR 50 increased by 0.56%, and the CSI A500 rose by 0.13%. The total A-share trading volume for the day was 1.65 trillion yuan [1]. Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 230 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.4%, with a total bid amount of 230 billion yuan and a successful bid amount of 230 billion yuan. On the same day, 188.3 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 41.7 billion yuan [2]. Industry Trends - The semiconductor industry chain showed strong performance, with companies like Chipone Technology and Demingli hitting the daily limit, while others like Xingsen Technology and Zhaoyi Innovation also saw significant gains. The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a rotation upward, with superhard materials, copper, and nickel leading the gains [3]. Sector Performance - The CPO concept sector led with an average increase of 6.13%, followed by PCB concept at 4.40%, and copper cable high-speed connection at 4.36%. In contrast, the gaming concept sector saw a decline of 0.81% [4]. Company Insights 1. **Wald**: Successfully launched a series of new products including screw processing tools and diamond micro-drills, achieving a certain revenue scale [7]. 2. **Inno Laser**: Focused on laser micro-processing, forming a business layout that covers various downstream industries including consumer electronics and semiconductors [7]. 3. **Mankalon**: Digital operational capabilities have become a core competitive advantage, supporting rapid expansion while maintaining organizational efficiency [8]. 4. **Sifangda**: Continues to engage in technological breakthroughs and product development, laying a solid foundation for long-term growth [8].

Core Viewpoint - The imposition of a 50% tariff by the U.S. has severely impacted Indian exporters, particularly in the leather and diamond industries, leading to halted orders and potential job losses [1][3][10] Group 1: Leather Industry - The leather industry in Kanpur, known for its numerous small workshops and factories, is heavily reliant on the U.S. market, which has now paused cooperation due to the new tariffs [3] - Exporters like Azad report that all orders have been canceled, leading to factory shutdowns and idle workers, highlighting the risks of dependence on a single market [3][10] - The Indian Export Organization estimates that 55% of goods exported to the U.S. will be affected, particularly in labor-intensive sectors [10] Group 2: Diamond Industry - The diamond industry, particularly in Surat, Gujarat, is facing significant challenges as the U.S. is its largest buyer, purchasing approximately $9 billion worth of jewelry annually [5] - With the new tariffs, the competitiveness of Indian diamonds has diminished, resulting in a withdrawal of orders [6] - Some factories are hesitant to purchase new raw stones and are reducing working hours, while others are resorting to selling inventory at lower prices to generate cash [8] Group 3: Market Response and Future Outlook - Major manufacturers are beginning to relocate production lines to countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh, which have lower tax rates, indicating a potential long-term shift in the supply chain [8] - The Indian government is urged to provide subsidies, tax refunds, or loan support to mitigate the immediate impact, but long-term strategies must focus on diversifying markets beyond the U.S. [10] - The situation serves as a stark reminder of the vulnerabilities in globalization, where reliance on a single market can lead to significant risks when trade policies change [10]

Core Viewpoint - The diamond industry is experiencing a temporary decline in prices and sales, but long-term trends indicate a steady increase in diamond prices due to limited natural diamond reserves [4][5][8]. Group 1: Price Trends - Natural diamond rough prices have increased by 37% since 2007, with an average annual growth rate of about 3% for finished diamonds over the past 35 years [3][4]. - The global diamond market saw a significant price increase of 40% between 2021 and 2022, followed by a price correction due to high inventory levels in the Indian cutting industry and increased financing costs [4][5]. - Investment-grade diamonds, particularly those over 5 carats, have been less affected by recent price declines, making them attractive to potential investors [8]. Group 2: Supply and Demand - The annual production of diamonds has been declining, from 160-180 million carats in the early 21st century to an estimated 110 million carats by 2024 [5]. - The diamond market is expected to recover, with a projected increase in diamond imports in China, which is the largest jewelry market, accounting for 35% of global jewelry consumption [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The diamond price index is expected to grow by 3%-5% annually over the next decade, with stronger growth anticipated after 2027 [8]. - Data from the Shanghai Diamond Exchange indicates a significant increase in diamond imports in the first half of 2025, reflecting a rebound in global market demand [8].

Core Insights - The long-term outlook for diamond prices remains positive, with expectations of steady growth due to limited natural diamond reserves [2][3]. Industry Overview - Natural diamond rough prices have increased by 37% since 2007, with an average annual growth rate of approximately 3% for finished diamonds over the past 35 years [2]. - Despite a decline in global diamond prices and sales over the past two years, this is seen as a relative decrease following a significant price surge of 40% between 2021 and 2022 [3]. - The current high inventory levels in the Indian cutting industry and increased financing costs have contributed to the recent price corrections [3]. Market Dynamics - The annual production of diamonds has been declining, from 160-180 million carats in the early 21st century to an expected 110 million carats by 2024, due to depleting reserves and a lack of new large discoveries [3]. - Investment-grade diamonds, particularly those weighing over 5 carats, are less affected by price declines and are considered attractive to potential investors [5]. Future Projections - The diamond price index is projected to grow by 3%-5% annually over the next decade, with stronger growth anticipated after 2027 [5]. - China, as the largest jewelry market, currently has a low share of diamond jewelry sales at 9%, compared to 60% in the United States, indicating potential for growth [5]. - A significant increase in diamond imports is expected in 2025, with a projected 93.8% year-on-year increase in weight and a 43.5% increase in total import value [5].