在俄罗斯副外长里亚布科夫宣称阿拉斯加"特普会"后俄乌战争的"和平进程"已"失去动力"后，俄罗斯股市随即迎来 了三年来最大的单日跌幅，莫斯科交易所（MOEX）指数下跌4.05%至2563.3点，创下2024年12月以来的最低水 平，主要的俄罗斯大公司股价纷纷下跌，诸如俄气下跌4.1%，俄罗斯石油公司下跌2.5%，俄罗斯储蓄银行下跌 4.9%，俄罗斯外贸银行下跌4.7%，俄罗斯航空公司下跌近5%，俄罗斯电信下跌超过5%。 分析师认为，里亚布科夫的言论引发了恐慌性抛售，导致俄股大跌，市场对这场战争的未来做出了直接反应。而 在此之前，媒体就对俄罗斯经济表达了担忧，或者准确说，是对畸形繁荣的俄罗斯战争经济表达了担忧。 俄罗斯的情况现在很困难，相比战场上的僵局，"油荒"加剧的俄罗斯国内经济让克里姆林宫更加担忧。 《世界报》发文称，客观而言，俄罗斯正进入开战后最糟糕的经济阶段，战争带动的经济繁荣已经成为过去时， 俄罗斯纳税人将被迫承担越来越多的税负，克宫的不断加税已经证明了这一点，这不符合"越打越富"的论断。 彭博社则认为，庞大的战争支出让俄罗斯经济进一步陷入军事化状态，或者说，战争已经绑架了俄罗斯经济，导 致即便是战争结 ...

Schiavone的分析显示，当前主要股指仍稳稳站在所有关键移动平均线上方，市场尚未出现需要转向风 险规避的明确信号或催化剂。他表示，当下的策略是"在市场风向改变前，继续追逐风险"。 投资者情绪和头寸状况成为反向的潜在能量，近期的普遍担忧导致许多投资者处于低配状态，而这种担 忧本身可能在市场反转时成为推动上涨的"燃料"。 这一观点也得到了市场流动性状况的支持。Schiavone指出，投资者手中握有高额现金，数万亿美元资 金停泊在货币市场，这意味着潜在买家仍在排队入场，这种缓慢的买家扩张构成了市场的持续利好。 他将当前市场与2010年至2011年的情形进行类比，当时在第一轮量化宽松（QE1）之后，标普500指数 因流动性充裕而在不到一年内上涨了30%，无视疲弱的宏观数据，因为流动性压倒了基本面因素。 流动性压倒基本面，历史重演？ 高盛资深宏观交易员Paolo Schiavone在其最新研报中指出，尽管全球债券市场出现了一些趋势性变化， 但风险资产并未显示出转向避险的信号。他认为，一个"不断扩大的买家宇宙"正在为市场提供支撑，在 流动性压倒基本面的背景下，追逐风险仍是当前的主导策略。 关注"四大资产负债表" 从更 ...

Group 1 - The Russian government plans to increase the value-added tax (VAT) from 20% to 22% in the 2026 budget to fund the war efforts, which will significantly impact consumer prices as VAT is a core component of the tax system covering nearly all goods and services [3] - The government aims to balance the need for increased military spending with social obligations, promising to fulfill all social policy commitments while prioritizing defense and security [3] - Military and security expenditures now account for 40% of total state spending, a significant increase of nearly 25 percentage points compared to pre-conflict levels, indicating a substantial financial commitment to the war [3] Group 2 - The Russian economy experienced a temporary boost due to war-related activities, with the military-industrial complex benefiting from increased government orders, although this has led to rising economic pressures on ordinary citizens [4] - The Russian Prime Minister forecasts a GDP growth of 1.3% in 2026, with an overall growth of approximately 7% over the next three years, while inflation rates are expected to decrease to 4% by the end of 2026 [8] - Despite the government's assurance that VAT on essential goods like food, medicine, and children's products will remain at 10%, prices for these necessities continue to rise due to supply chain disruptions and currency depreciation [8]

制裁已显成效：俄利率高达17%，通胀持续攀升，融资渠道与财政收入萎缩，战争经济濒临 极限。欧盟强调，将继续施压直至俄方同意与乌克兰进行公正和谈。 （Rosneft）和天然气工业石油公司（Gazpromneft）被全面禁止交易，其他相关企业面临资 产冻结。欧盟还将追查第三方违规购油行为，包括中国境内的炼油厂、石油贸易商等。 2、金融漏洞：新增俄罗斯及第三国银行的交易禁令，首次将加密货币平台纳入限制，禁止加 密货币交易，并严控与俄替代支付系统关联的外资银行及特殊经济区实体交易。 3、技术封锁：新增对俄军事工业复合体的直接出口限制，45家俄境内及第三国企业被列入清 单，重点切断无人机等关键技术获取渠道。 过去一个月，俄罗斯持续升级对乌克兰的袭击规模，面对俄方行动，欧盟以新一轮制裁作为 回应。 本次制裁聚焦三大领域： 1、能源领域：禁止俄罗斯液化天然气（LNG）进入欧洲市场，并将原油价格上限降至47.6美 元/桶。新增118艘"影子船队"船舶至制裁清单，总数超560艘。俄罗斯石油公司 同步推进资金支持：欧盟正利用被冻结俄资产的现金余额，向乌克兰提供"赔偿贷款"（资产 本体不动），待俄支付赔款后乌方偿还贷款，具体方案将 ...

路透社称，乌克兰最高拉达（议会）预算委员会主席罗克索拉纳·皮德拉萨表示，战争成本持续上升，2025年战争单日开支达到1.72亿美元，而2024年约为 1.4亿美元。她说，这笔支出涵盖士兵薪资、武器采购以及战场伤亡人员的抚恤金，"因此我们需要筹集所有需要的资源、所有需要的资金"。 此前，据乌克兰总统网站8月22日发布的消息，乌总统泽连斯基当天在首都基辅会晤到访的北约秘书长吕特，讨论对乌安全保障、武器援助和结束俄乌冲突 等议题。泽连斯基称，对乌安全保障应"真正有效"。泽连斯基表示，由北约和美国提出的"乌克兰优先需求清单"计划已启动，现已筹集15亿美元资金。该计 划由一些北约欧洲成员国出资，向美国购买武器援助乌克兰。泽连斯基说，他和吕特还讨论了为乌克兰国内武器生产、尤其是无人机生产提供资金支持事 宜。今年乌国内武器生产的资金缺口为60亿美元。 责任编辑：何俊熹 路透社援引什梅加尔的话称，这笔资金对于维持防线、生产更多无人机和其他武器、保护领空以及阻止俄罗斯发动进一步攻势至关重要。"RBC.UA"新闻网 称，什梅加尔补充说，当前战争经济形势下，若乌克兰国防开支少于俄罗斯，将要付出领土和生命代价。 路透社提到，2022 ...

Core Insights - The cargo volume of Russian Railways decreased by 5.4% in August 2025 compared to the same period last year, marking the third consecutive quarter of decline [1][3] - The ongoing war and sanctions have severely impacted the Russian economy, with the railway company handling 87% of the country's freight transport, indicating a direct correlation with key industrial sectors' production vitality [3][12] Group 1: Cargo Volume and Economic Impact - In August 2025, the cargo volume was only 92.2 million tons, down from 97.2 million tons in August 2024, with a total transport volume of 738.8 million tons for the first eight months of the year, reflecting a 7.1% year-on-year decline [3] - The transportation crisis highlights the effectiveness of Western sanctions and suggests a diminishing capacity for Russia to sustain a prolonged war, which is critical information for policymakers considering continued support for Ukraine [4] Group 2: Sector-Specific Declines - Significant declines were observed in strategic sectors: construction materials transport fell by 15%, black metal shipments dropped by 17.3%, coal decreased by 3.6%, oil transport declined by 4.9% due to refinery maintenance issues, and grain transport plummeted by 30.7% due to poor harvests and export restrictions [5] Group 3: Labor Shortages and Infrastructure Challenges - Labor shortages have worsened as thousands of railway workers were conscripted, leading to a shortfall of 2,500 engineers and 3,000 locomotive crew members, resulting in approximately 200 train services being canceled daily [9] - Ukrainian drone attacks continue to target Russian railway infrastructure, disrupting both military supply lines and civilian cargo transport [11] Group 4: Financial Struggles and Future Outlook - Due to financial difficulties, Russian Railways has been forced to place employees on unpaid "leave," indicating the company's dire situation [14] - The ongoing decline in transport metrics serves as a leading indicator of economic recession, suggesting that the Russian economic foundation is deteriorating under the pressures of sustained warfare and international isolation [12]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing war in Russia has led to severe economic consequences, including widespread business bankruptcies, labor shortages, and increasing debt levels among the population, despite seemingly positive employment statistics. Group 1: Economic Impact - In the first half of 2024, 141,000 legal entities declared bankruptcy, with over 70% from manufacturing, construction, and trade sectors [6] - 43% of construction companies have halted operations due to funding chain disruptions caused by the lack of building materials from Austria and Germany [8] - By the end of 2024, 66% of the labor population had personal debts totaling 38.5 trillion rubles, with a 10.5% overdue loan rate in Q1 2025 [9] Group 2: Military Spending - In 2024, Russia's direct defense spending surged to 10.8 trillion rubles, tripling since 2021, with military industrial subsidies accounting for a significant portion of economic department expenditures [17] - The total military expenditure for 2025 is projected to be at least 16.55 trillion rubles, averaging over 453 billion rubles daily [20] - The military personnel costs alone for 2025 are estimated to exceed 19.7 trillion rubles, indicating a substantial financial commitment to sustaining military operations [27] Group 3: Casualties and Compensation - As of November 2024, confirmed soldier fatalities reached 77,143, with estimates suggesting actual numbers could exceed 90,000 due to reporting delays [34] - The average compensation for each deceased soldier's family is approximately 14.5 million rubles, leading to a projected expenditure of at least 1.044 trillion rubles in 2025 for compensations alone [39] Group 4: Inflation and Economic Stability - Despite a reported inflation rate of 8.8% in 2025, essential food prices have surged significantly, with bread and milk prices increasing by 12-15% and vegetables by over 20% [78] - The introduction of a "war tax" on businesses and individuals has been implemented to address government deficits, indicating a shift in fiscal policy to manage economic strain [82][84] Group 5: Future Economic Outlook - GDP growth predictions for 2025 range from 1% to 2%, with potential stagnation or contraction in subsequent years, significantly below global growth rates [92] - The prolonged conflict and its associated economic burdens are expected to diminish public morale and support for the war, potentially leading to a critical juncture in the conflict [95][97]

德国联邦国防军士兵参加军事演习。 据外媒报道，德国国防部长皮斯托里乌斯和联邦国防军其他高级官员正在联合审核有关坦克和装甲 车采购计划，订单总额预计高达250亿欧元（约合292亿美元）。有评论人士称，这是德国军备升级的又 一最新举措，旨在为组建新的旅级战斗队做准备。不过，德国此举将会受国内外各类因素掣肘，结果充 满不确定性。 加大采购力度 德国计划采购1000辆"豹"-2主战坦克和2500辆"拳击手"轮式装甲车。前者将由KNDS防御系统公司 和莱茵金属公司联合生产，已大量装备欧洲多国陆军，是欧洲地面军事力量的重型装备代表；后者将由 上述两家公司的合资企业埃太科公司生产，被德国军工界视为"世界顶级装甲车"。知情人士称，德国联 邦议院可能在年内批准上述采购计划。 皮斯托里乌斯表示，上述重型装甲平台将"重新武装联邦国防军"，使其成为欧洲最强大的常规军 队。有分析指出，这项大规模军购订单，将为德国联邦国防军组建新的旅级战斗队奠定装备基础。在今 年6月的北约海牙峰会上，德国承诺组建至少7个旅级战斗队，以满足北约军力目标。 德国联邦军事采购办公室主任安妮特·莱尼克—埃姆登在接受采访时表示，德国联邦国防军必须在 2028年之 ...