越打越富的神话已经破灭，实际情况是，战争的消耗远远超出了收入。2025年前9个月，俄罗斯的国防支出已达到1422.5亿美元，相当于每小时2090万美 元。军费占GDP的比例为6.7%，远高于许多国家。油气收入也下降了22%，预计2026年经济增长仅为1%，通货膨胀率将低于6%，但经济结构严重失衡。卖 黄金说明俄罗斯的常规财政手段已经用尽，经济的缓冲层已变得越来越薄弱。虽然特朗普提出的和平方案偏向俄罗斯，但乌克兰方面并未接受，冲突依然在 拖延。等到俄罗斯黄金储备卖光之后，油气收入难以恢复到高峰，民生问题将更加严重。俄罗斯的财政计划表明，2026年至2028年，税收将大幅增加，但赤 字依然巨大，军费也维持在高位。俄罗斯的总黄金储备为2300吨，通过调整税收和加强与亚洲市场的联系，俄罗斯正在缓解危机，但核心问题是，战争的消 耗已严重超载。经济的冷却持续，企业活动也显得越来越疲弱。储备的消耗或将迫使俄罗斯做出更大调整，但到底何时能结束，仍是未知数。财政状况的紧 张加剧，2025年俄罗斯56个地区的赤字已达到1692亿卢布。国家财富基金的规模也从2022年的1135亿美元缩水至516亿美元。卖黄金的策略风险极大，进一 ...

美国作家马克·吐温有句妙语：历史不会重演，但总会押韵。如今，随着欧洲各国承诺将国防开支提高 至国内生产总值（GDP）的5%，我们是否正在重演20世纪30年代的情景——当年西方列强正是依靠国 防支出走出大萧条？ 两次世界大战之间的时期，世界由西方列强（包括日本）主导，世界上其他大部分地区仍处于殖民统治 之下。第一次世界大战并未化解欧洲列强之间的旧怨，德国因战争赔款而愤懑不平，并因此引发了摧毁 德国社会的恶性通货膨胀。20世纪20年代的"咆哮年代"以1929年的股市崩盘告终，30年代则成为全球经 济停滞的年代。1934年，富兰克林·罗斯福总统以"新政"复兴美国经济的承诺当选。而在日本与德国， 军国主义背景下的右翼势力开始崛起。1934年，希特勒打着纳粹民族主义的旗号上台，宣称要重振德 国，并为一战的耻辱与失去的领土复仇。德国的军费开支从1933年占GDP的1%-2%，上升到1936年的 13%，到1945年几乎达到GDP的100%。日本的军费则从GDP占比的3%-4%，上升到1937年-1938年的 9%-10%。美国的反应较慢，1930年-1938年间军费平均开支仅占GDP的1%-2%，但到1945年已经迅速攀 ...

欧尔班还表示，欧盟持续推动构建战争经济及长期军备计划的决策令人不安。 匈牙利总理欧尔班11月22日表示，他反对欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩为乌克兰筹集1350亿欧元资金的要 求，并强调"匈牙利人的钱属于匈牙利人"，不会牺牲匈牙利国民和企业的利益来援助乌克兰。 （文章来源：央视新闻） ...

Group 1 - The ongoing overheating of the military industry is exacerbating the decline of Russia's civilian industries, particularly in bank loans and labor attraction [1] - Major industrial companies in Russia are placing employees on leave or laying them off due to a slowdown in the war economy, stagnant domestic demand, and depleted exports, affecting sectors from railways and automobiles to metals, coal, diamonds, and cement [1] - The largest cement manufacturer in Russia, Cemros, has extended its four-day workweek policy until the end of the year to preserve all employees amid declining cement demand, which is expected to be less than 60 million tons this year, similar to the pandemic period [4] Group 2 - The Russian economy's non-military sectors have shrunk by 5.4% since the beginning of the year, with GDP growth forecasted to slow significantly to between 0.7% and 1.0% for the year [4] - Labor issues are emerging even in state-owned enterprises, with reports of over 60 workers at a power plant staging a strike due to months of unpaid wages, highlighting legal protections for workers in Russia [4] - The energy sector, a pillar of the Russian economy, is facing increased sanctions from the West and ongoing direct sanctions from Ukraine, impacting its operational capacity [5] Group 3 - Continuous attacks from Ukraine are causing a decline in Russian refining capacity, forcing the country to sell more oil at lower prices, with major oil export ports nearing historical maximum levels [7] - In August, profits from energy sales in Russia dropped to the lowest level since 2022, averaging €546 million per day [10] - Goldman Sachs predicts a 10% decline in Russian oil production by next year, from 9.3 million barrels per day to 8.4 million barrels per day, due to ongoing pressures on refining capacity and high benchmark interest rates [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the deteriorating economic situation in Russia, exacerbated by the ongoing war and recent comments from Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov, which have led to significant market reactions [1][4][7] - The Moscow Exchange (MOEX) index experienced its largest single-day drop in three years, falling 4.05% to 2563.3 points, marking the lowest level since December 2024, with major companies like Gazprom and Sberbank seeing declines of 4.1% and 4.9% respectively [1][4] - Analysts express concerns that the war-driven economic boom in Russia is over, with taxpayers facing increasing burdens due to rising taxes, contradicting the notion of "getting richer through war" [4][7] Group 2 - The military spending has led to a militarized economy in Russia, raising doubts about the Kremlin's ability to transition back to a peacetime economy, as many businesses and workers are reliant on defense contracts [4][7] - The market's reaction to Ryabkov's statements reflects a broader fear regarding the future of the war, particularly in light of potential military support for Ukraine from the U.S. [7][9] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the uncertainty surrounding U.S. military aid to Ukraine contribute to the volatility in the Russian stock market and overall economic outlook [7][9]

Core Insights - Despite trends in the global bond market, risk assets are not showing signs of shifting towards safe havens, supported by an expanding buyer universe and liquidity overwhelming fundamentals [1][3] Group 1: Market Conditions - Major stock indices remain above key moving averages, with no clear signals for risk aversion [3] - Investor sentiment and positioning are seen as potential energy for market reversal, with many investors underweight due to recent concerns [3] - A significant amount of cash, amounting to trillions of dollars, is parked in money markets, indicating potential buyers are waiting to enter the market [3] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The current strategy is to continue pursuing risk until a trend change occurs, with momentum trading yielding returns [5] - The largest risk facing the market is the Federal Reserve potentially adopting a less aggressive rate-cutting path than expected [5] Group 3: Upcoming Catalysts - The market is entering a phase termed "Calendar Compression," with multiple key events expected in the coming weeks [6] - Key catalysts include the upcoming earnings season led by the banking sector and the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on October 29 [6] - Expectations for "consecutive rate cuts and accelerating earnings" are noted, with potential benefits for Bitcoin, gold, and long-duration assets if the U.S. government remains shut down [6] Group 4: Macro Perspective - Attention is drawn to the "four balance sheets" of banks, corporations, consumers, and governments, with a focus on the structural deterioration of Western governments' balance sheets post-2008 financial crisis and COVID-19 [7] - The current market environment exhibits characteristics of a "war economy," with a lack of political motivation for fiscal tightening and a global arms race for rearmament [7] Group 5: Interest Rate Outlook - In the context of a "war economy," the path of interest rates is expected to differ from historical patterns, with central banks likely to cut rates significantly [8] - The potential for yield curve control (YCC) measures is noted, with Japan cited as a current case study [8] - The market's term premium has not shown significant widening, contributing to a less favorable outlook for the U.S. dollar [8]

Group 1 - The Russian government plans to increase the value-added tax (VAT) from 20% to 22% in the 2026 budget to fund the war efforts, which will significantly impact consumer prices as VAT is a core component of the tax system covering nearly all goods and services [3] - The government aims to balance the need for increased military spending with social obligations, promising to fulfill all social policy commitments while prioritizing defense and security [3] - Military and security expenditures now account for 40% of total state spending, a significant increase of nearly 25 percentage points compared to pre-conflict levels, indicating a substantial financial commitment to the war [3] Group 2 - The Russian economy experienced a temporary boost due to war-related activities, with the military-industrial complex benefiting from increased government orders, although this has led to rising economic pressures on ordinary citizens [4] - The Russian Prime Minister forecasts a GDP growth of 1.3% in 2026, with an overall growth of approximately 7% over the next three years, while inflation rates are expected to decrease to 4% by the end of 2026 [8] - Despite the government's assurance that VAT on essential goods like food, medicine, and children's products will remain at 10%, prices for these necessities continue to rise due to supply chain disruptions and currency depreciation [8]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union has responded to the escalating attacks by Russia on Ukraine with a new round of sanctions targeting key sectors, including energy, finance, and technology [1][2]. Group 1: Sanctions Overview - The sanctions focus on three main areas: 1. **Energy Sector**: Prohibition of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) into the European market, reduction of the oil price cap to $47.6 per barrel, and the addition of 118 "shadow fleet" vessels to the sanctions list, bringing the total to over 560 vessels. Major Russian oil companies, Rosneft and Gazpromneft, face comprehensive trading bans, with other related enterprises at risk of asset freezes. The EU will also investigate third-party oil purchase violations, including those involving refineries and oil traders in China [2]. 2. **Financial Loopholes**: New trading bans on Russian and third-country banks, the inclusion of cryptocurrency platforms in restrictions, and a prohibition on cryptocurrency transactions. There will be strict controls on foreign banks and special economic zone entities associated with Russian alternative payment systems [2]. 3. **Technology Blockade**: Direct export restrictions on Russia's military-industrial complex, with 45 Russian and third-country enterprises added to the sanctions list, aiming to cut off access to critical technologies such as drones [2]. Group 2: Impact and Support Measures - The sanctions have shown effectiveness, with Russian interest rates soaring to 17%, inflation rising, and financing channels and fiscal revenues shrinking, pushing the war economy to its limits. The EU emphasizes continued pressure until Russia agrees to fair negotiations with Ukraine [2]. - Concurrently, the EU is utilizing the cash balances of frozen Russian assets to provide "compensation loans" to Ukraine, which will be repaid once Russia pays reparations. Specific plans for this initiative will be announced soon [2]. Group 3: Coordination Efforts - The EU is urging member states to quickly approve the new sanctions and to coordinate actions with the G7 and the "coalition of willing" [3].

Core Points - Ukraine's Defense Minister Shmyhal stated that if the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues, Ukraine will require at least $120 billion in defense spending by 2026 [1][3] - The funding is crucial for maintaining defense lines, producing more drones and weapons, protecting airspace, and preventing further Russian offensives [3] - Ukraine's defense spending has surged since the conflict began in February 2022, currently accounting for over 31% of its GDP [3] Defense Spending Overview - Ukraine plans to allocate at least $63 billion for defense spending this year, with additional support from Western allies providing physical weapons [3] - The daily cost of the war is increasing, with expenditures reaching $172 million per day in 2025 and approximately $140 million per day in 2024 [3] - These expenditures cover soldier salaries, weapon procurement, and compensation for battlefield casualties, necessitating the mobilization of all required resources and funding [3] International Support and Production - Ukrainian President Zelensky discussed security guarantees and weapon assistance with NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg, emphasizing the need for effective security measures [4] - A "Ukraine Priority Needs List" has been initiated, raising $1.5 billion in funding from NATO European member countries to purchase weapons from the U.S. [4] - There is a funding gap of $6 billion for domestic arms production in Ukraine this year, particularly for drone manufacturing [4]

Core Insights - The cargo volume of Russian Railways decreased by 5.4% in August 2025 compared to the same period last year, marking the third consecutive quarter of decline [1][3] - The ongoing war and sanctions have severely impacted the Russian economy, with the railway company handling 87% of the country's freight transport, indicating a direct correlation with key industrial sectors' production vitality [3][12] Group 1: Cargo Volume and Economic Impact - In August 2025, the cargo volume was only 92.2 million tons, down from 97.2 million tons in August 2024, with a total transport volume of 738.8 million tons for the first eight months of the year, reflecting a 7.1% year-on-year decline [3] - The transportation crisis highlights the effectiveness of Western sanctions and suggests a diminishing capacity for Russia to sustain a prolonged war, which is critical information for policymakers considering continued support for Ukraine [4] Group 2: Sector-Specific Declines - Significant declines were observed in strategic sectors: construction materials transport fell by 15%, black metal shipments dropped by 17.3%, coal decreased by 3.6%, oil transport declined by 4.9% due to refinery maintenance issues, and grain transport plummeted by 30.7% due to poor harvests and export restrictions [5] Group 3: Labor Shortages and Infrastructure Challenges - Labor shortages have worsened as thousands of railway workers were conscripted, leading to a shortfall of 2,500 engineers and 3,000 locomotive crew members, resulting in approximately 200 train services being canceled daily [9] - Ukrainian drone attacks continue to target Russian railway infrastructure, disrupting both military supply lines and civilian cargo transport [11] Group 4: Financial Struggles and Future Outlook - Due to financial difficulties, Russian Railways has been forced to place employees on unpaid "leave," indicating the company's dire situation [14] - The ongoing decline in transport metrics serves as a leading indicator of economic recession, suggesting that the Russian economic foundation is deteriorating under the pressures of sustained warfare and international isolation [12]