集运早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/9/18 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 导致 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 (%) | 基 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持命量 | 持合变动 | | 期货 | EC2510 | | 1109.7 | -5.13 | 330.5 | 43546 | | 49609 | 2092 | | | EC2512 | | 1672.0 | -0.11 | -231.8 | 16859 | | 20437 | 678 | | | EC2602 | | 1578.8 | 0.43 | -138.6 | 3152 | | 7105 | 386 | | | EC2604 | | 1285.0 | 0.10 | 155.2 | 1492 | | 8334 | 101 | | | EC2606 | | 1468.7 | -0.20 | -28.5 | | 121 | 924 | -33 | | | 月差 | | 前一日 | 前两日 | 前三日 | 目标 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Container Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 16, 2025 - Analyst: Yu Junchen [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The container shipping index (European line) futures opened higher and fluctuated, with a decline near the close. Except for EC2510, all other contract prices rose to varying degrees. In the short term, the near - month contract futures prices are likely to fluctuate and decline, and high - short opportunities should be monitored [3]. EC Risk Management Strategy Position Management - For those with existing positions but full capacity or poor booking volume, worried about falling freight rates (long spot exposure), it is recommended to short container shipping index futures (EC2510) to lock in profits at an entry range of 1250 - 1350 [2]. Cost Management - For those facing increased blank sailings by shipping companies or approaching the peak season, and wanting to book cabins based on orders (short spot exposure), it is recommended to buy container shipping index futures (EC2510) at an entry range of 1000 - 1100 to lock in booking costs in advance [2]. Market Analysis Core Contradiction - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) were affected by factors such as reaching short - term lows, sentiment, and the commodity market. The spot cabin quotes (except Maersk) were basically stable, but Maersk's European line spot cabin quotes continued to decline, and the cargo volume in the container shipping market was still relatively insufficient [3]. Long - Bias Interpretation - On September 14, Hamas suspended negotiations on a cease - fire and the exchange of detainees in the Gaza Strip with Israel [4]. Short - Bias Interpretation - Maersk's new weekly European line spot cabin quotes continued to decline, with the 20 - foot container price falling below $900. The basis of EC contracts showed different degrees of decline [5]. Price and Spread Data EC Contracts - On September 16, 2025, EC2510 closed at 1169.7, up 0.57% daily and down 7.80% weekly; EC2512 closed at 1673.8, up 1.06% daily and down 0.54% weekly; EC2602 closed at 1572.1, up 3.64% daily and 2.93% weekly; EC2604 closed at 1283.7, up 2.69% daily and 2.15% weekly; EC2606 closed at 1471.6, up 2.77% daily and 2.59% weekly; EC2608 closed at 1625.9, up 1.84% daily and 1.11% weekly [5][6]. Price Spreads - The price spreads between different EC contracts also showed corresponding changes, such as EC2510 - 2602 being - 402.4, down 48.6 daily and 143.7 weekly [5]. Shipping Quotes Maersk Quotes - For Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam routes, the 20GP and 40GP quotes showed different trends. For example, on October 1, the 20GP opening quote was $882, down $99 from the previous week, and the 40GP opening quote was $1470, down $157 from the previous week [8]. Global Freight Index - SCFIS: European line decreased by 8.06% to 1440.24 points; SCFIS: US - West line increased by 37.67% to 1349.84 points; SCFI: European line decreased by 12.24% to $1154/TEU; SCFI: US - West line increased by 8.27% to $2370/FEU; XSI: European line decreased by 5.75% to $2083/FEU; XSI: US - West line increased by 10.0% to $2487/FEU; FBX composite freight index decreased by 2.82% to $1967/FEU [9]. Port Data Global Port Waiting Time - The waiting times at ports such as Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Yantian showed different changes on September 15 compared to September 14. For example, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port decreased by 0.251 days to 1.401 days [14]. Ship Speed and Waiting Ships - The speeds of 8000 +, 3000 +, and 1000 + container ships decreased slightly on September 15 compared to September 14, and the number of container ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchor remained at 10 [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Today, the container shipping index (European line) futures opened with a significant upward movement and then continued to fluctuate upwards. Except for EC2510, all other contracts saw varying degrees of price increases. The short - term price of the futures is likely to continue a volatile trend, and intraday short - term operations are recommended for unilateral trading. The partial contract price correction today is due to a short - term rebound from last week's low and the emotional bullishness caused by Hamas suspending negotiations with Israel [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 EC Risk Management Strategy Advice - For position management, if one has existing positions but the shipping capacity is full or the booked cargo volume is poor, and is worried about a decline in freight rates (long spot exposure), to prevent losses, one can short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) to lock in profits at an entry range of 1250 - 1350 [2]. - For cost management, if shipping companies increase blank sailings or the peak season is approaching, and one wants to book cabins according to orders (short spot exposure), to prevent an increase in transportation costs due to rising freight rates, one can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at an entry range of 1000 - 1100 to determine the booking cost in advance [2]. 3.2 Core Contradiction - The container shipping index (European line) futures showed an upward trend today. In the EC2510 contract, long positions decreased by 7 to 26383, short positions increased by 406 to 27849, and trading volume decreased by 8913 to 21070 (bilateral). The price correction of some contracts is due to a short - term rebound from last week's low and the emotional impact of Hamas suspending negotiations with Israel. The SCFIS European line's decline has slightly converged, and the futures price is likely to continue a volatile trend. Unilateral operations are best done intraday [3]. 3.3 Bullish Interpretation - On the 14th local time, Hamas senior official Tahir Nunu stated that Hamas has suspended negotiations with Israel regarding a cease - fire in the Gaza Strip and the exchange of detainees [4]. 3.4 Futures Basis and Price - The futures underlying SCFIS European line continues to decline. The basis of EC2510 on September 16 was 277.14 points, with a daily decrease of 5.50 points and a weekly decrease of 6.32 points. For example, the closing price of EC2510 was 1163.1 points, with a daily increase of 0.48% and a weekly decrease of 9.35% [5]. 3.5 Spot Freight Quotes - According to the "European Line Freight Rate Note" on September 22, the total quote for 20GP of Maersk's ships departing from Shanghai to Rotterdam was $997, and for 40GP was $1669, both remaining the same as the previous period [8]. 3.6 Global Freight Rate Index - The SCFIS European line index was 1440.24 points, a decrease of 126.22 points (- 8.06%) from the previous value; the SCFIS US - West line index was 1349.84 points, an increase of 369.36 points (37.67%) [9]. 3.7 Global Major Port Waiting Times - On September 15, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 1.652 days, an increase of 0.173 days from the previous day; the waiting time at Shanghai Port was 1.632 days, an increase of 0.014 days [14]. 3.8 Ship Speed and Waiting Ships in Suez Canal - On September 15, the average speed of 8000 + container ships was 15.666 knots, a decrease of 0.14 knots from the previous day; the number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchor was 10, a decrease of 1 from the previous day [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The container shipping index (European line) futures continued to fluctuate downward. As of the close, all contract prices declined to varying degrees. The EC2510 contract saw a reduction in long positions by 948 lots to 26,451 lots and a reduction in short positions by 1,167 lots to 27,579 lots, with trading volume decreasing by 5,185 lots to 30,843 lots (bilateral). The mainstream shipping companies continued to lower freight rates during the current off - season, and the short - term futures prices are likely to maintain a relatively downward trend. It is recommended to adopt a quick - in - quick - out strategy, while also being cautious of potential rebounds after the futures prices reach short - term lows [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - For position management, if one has already obtained positions but the shipping capacity is full or the booked cargo volume is poor, and there are concerns about freight rate drops, with a long spot exposure, to prevent losses, one can short the container shipping index futures based on the company's positions to lock in profits. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a selling range of 1300 - 1400 [2]. - For cost management, if shipping companies increase the frequency of blank sailings or the peak season is approaching, and one hopes to book cabins according to order situations, with a short spot exposure, to prevent freight rate increases and rising transportation costs, one can buy the container shipping index futures at present to determine the cabin - booking cost in advance. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a buying range of 1000 - 1100 [2]. Core Contradictions - The container shipping index (European line) futures continued to decline. The reduction in long and short positions in the EC2510 contract and the decrease in trading volume, along with the continuous reduction of freight rate quotes by shipping companies, indicate that short - term futures prices are likely to remain in a downward trend. A quick - in - quick - out trading strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to potential rebounds [3]. Bullish Interpretations - MSC, Maersk, and HMM have successively announced their Golden Week blank sailing plans [4]. Bearish Interpretations - ONE followed up by lowering the European line quotes for late September in the online cabin - booking quotes of shipping companies. - The attack on Qatar by Israel has led to a tense situation in the region, which may have an impact on the container shipping market [5]. EC Basis and Price Information - The basis of EC contracts shows different degrees of daily and weekly changes. For example, the basis of EC2510 was 408.86 points, with a daily increase of 46.20 points and a weekly increase of 157.70 points [5]. - The closing prices of EC contracts also declined to varying degrees. For example, the closing price of EC2510 was 1157.6 points, with a daily decline of 5.02% and a weekly decline of 7.45% [6]. Container Shipping Spot Cabin Quotes - On September 22, Maersk's 20GP total quote for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route increased by $5 to $997, and the 40GP total quote increased by $10 to $1669 compared to the previous period. - In mid - to - late September, ONE's 20GP total quote for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route decreased by $190 to $1354, and the 40GP total quote decreased by $300 to $1643 compared to the previous period [8]. Global Freight Rate Indexes - SCFIS European route dropped by 11.68% to 1566.46 points; SCFIS US - West route dropped by 3.30% to 980.48 points. - SCFI European route decreased by 12.24% to $1154 per TEU; SCFI US - West route increased by 8.27% to $2370 per FEU [9]. Global Port Waiting Times - The waiting times at ports such as Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Yantian increased on September 11 compared to the previous day, while the waiting times at ports such as Jakarta, Long Beach, and Savannah decreased [16]. Ship Speed and Waiting Ship Numbers in Suez Canal - The average speeds of 8000 + and 3000 + container ships increased slightly on September 11 compared to the previous day, while the average speed of 1000 + container ships decreased slightly. The number of container ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorage increased from 8 to 21 [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term weak and volatile pattern of the container shipping market continues, and shipping companies are gradually announcing blank sailings for the Golden Week [2]. - Today, the futures prices of each contract of the container shipping index (European line) continued the weak and volatile trend. The prices of EC contracts showed mixed changes. The EC2510 contract is likely to continue to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see for the time being [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - For those with purchased shipping space but full capacity or poor booking volume, worried about falling freight rates, it is recommended to short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1350 - 1450 to lock in profits [2]. - For shipping companies with increased blank sailing efforts or approaching the peak season, to prevent rising freight rates and increased transportation costs, it is recommended to buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1150 - 1250 to determine booking costs in advance [2]. Core Contradictions - The futures prices of each contract of the container shipping index (European line) continued the weak and volatile trend. As of the close, the prices of EC contracts showed mixed changes. The long positions of the EC2510 contract decreased by 780 lots to 27,222 lots, the short positions decreased by 1300 lots to 30,668 lots, and the trading volume increased by 1140 lots to 29,546 lots (bilateral) [2]. - CMA CGM has continuously lowered the European line quotes for September, and the futures price weakened and fluctuated as expected following the decline of the spot cabin quotes on the European line. However, there are still uncertainties, including the uncertainty of US tariffs and the gradually announced blank sailing plans of major shipping companies for the Golden Week, which support the futures price from the supply side [2]. Bullish Interpretations - On August 29th local time, the US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that most of the global tariff measures implemented by former President Trump were illegal. These additional tariff measures can remain in effect until October 14th to allow the US government to appeal to the Supreme Court [3]. - On September 1st local time, due to the expected slowdown in demand during the Golden Week holiday, MSC plans to adjust the shipping capacity on the Asia - Europe route from Week 39 to Week 41, canceling a total of four voyages [3]. Bearish Interpretations - MSK's new weekly cabin opening quotes continued to decline, with the decline basically remaining the same [4]. - CMA CGM's spot cabin quotes on the European line in early September continued to decline [4]. EC Basis Daily Changes - On September 5, 2025, the basis of EC2510 was 472.90 points, with a daily increase of 22.30 points and a weekly decrease of 232.30 points; the basis of EC2512 was 97.60 points, with a daily increase of 25.20 points and a weekly decrease of 321.60 points; and so on for other contracts [5]. EC Price and Spread - On September 5, 2025, the closing price of EC2510 was 1300.7 points, with a daily decline of 1.69% and a weekly increase of 1.22%; the closing price of EC2512 was 1676.0 points, with a daily decline of 1.48% and a weekly increase of 6.68%; and so on for other contracts. Also shows the price differences between different contracts [5]. Container Shipping Spot Cabin Quotes - On September 15, for Maersk's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $1092, an increase of $5 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $1827, an increase of $11. On September 18, the total quote for 20GP was $1040, an increase of $5, and the total quote for 40GP was $1740, an increase of $10 [7]. - For CMA CGM's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam in the next two weeks, the total quote for 20GP was $1210, a decrease of $100 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $2020, a decrease of $200 [7]. Global Freight Rate Index - The SCFIS for the European route was 1773.6 points, a decrease of 216.6 points or 10.88% compared to the previous value; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1013.9 points, a decrease of 27.48 points or 2.64% [7]. - The SCFI for the European route was $1481 per TEU, a decrease of $187 or 11.21%; the SCFI for the US - West route was $1923 per FEU, an increase of $279 or 16.97% [7]. - The XSI for the European line was $2421 per FEU, a decrease of $31 or 1.26%; the XSI for the US - West line was $2034 per FEU, an increase of $96 or 5.0% [7]. - The FBX comprehensive freight rate index was $1997 per FEU, an increase of $16 or 0.81% [7]. Global Major Port Waiting Times - On September 4, 2025, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 0.360 days, a decrease of 0.098 days compared to the previous day; the waiting time at Shanghai Port was 1.420 days, a decrease of 0.378 days; and so on for other ports [14]. Ship Speed and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Port Anchorage - On September 4, 2025, the average speed of container ships over 8000 TEU was 15.769 knots, a decrease of 0.055 knots compared to the previous day; the average speed of container ships over 3000 TEU was 14.765 knots, an increase of 0.013 knots; the average speed of container ships over 1000 TEU was 13.323 knots, an increase of 0.183 knots [22]. - The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorage was 15, the same as the previous day [22].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The prices of all monthly contracts of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures opened lower and fluctuated. By the close, the prices of all EC contracts declined. The futures prices dropped as expected following the decline in the spot cabin quotes on the European line, especially Maersk's new weekly cabin opening quotes. For the future, it is more likely that EC will continue to fluctuate or decline slightly [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content EC Risk Management Strategy - For those with available cabin space but full shipping capacity or poor booking volume, worried about falling freight rates, it is recommended to short the container shipping index futures to lock in profits. The recommended entry range for selling EC2510 is 1350 - 1450 [1]. - For those hoping to book cabins based on order situations due to increased blank sailings by shipping companies or approaching peak season, it is recommended to buy the container shipping index futures to lock in booking costs. The recommended entry range for buying EC2510 is 1150 - 1250 [1]. Market Information - **Likely Positive Factors**: The US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that most of the global tariff measures implemented by former President Trump were illegal. MSC plans to adjust the shipping capacity on the Asia - Europe route from the 39th to the 41st week, canceling a total of four voyages. Maersk increased the quotes for some newly added cabins in early September [2]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: MSK's new weekly cabin opening quotes continued to decline, and the quotes of MSC and Hapag - Lloyd for spot cabins on the European line in early September continued to fall [3]. Data Analysis - **EC Basis and Price Spread**: The basis, daily and weekly changes of different EC contracts on September 4, 2025, are provided, along with the closing prices, daily and weekly price changes, and price spreads between different contracts [4]. - **Shipping Quotes**: Maersk's shipping quotes from Shanghai to Rotterdam for different container types and departure dates in September are given, showing some increases and decreases. MSC's quotes for the next two weeks decreased, and Hapag - Lloyd's average quotes for the past three weeks also declined [6]. - **Global Freight Index**: The latest values, previous values, changes, and change rates of multiple global freight indexes, including SCFIS, SCFI, XSI, and FBX, are presented [7]. - **Port Waiting Time**: The waiting times at major global ports on September 3, 2025, compared with the previous day and the same period last year, are provided, including Hong Kong, Shanghai, Yantian, Singapore, Jakarta, Long Beach, and Savannah ports [14]. - **Ship Speed and Waiting Vessels**: The average speeds of different types of container ships on September 3, 2025, compared with the previous day and the same period last year, and the number of container ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorage are given [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Today, the futures prices of each contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) opened with a significant upward movement, then fluctuated, and declined near the close. All contracts' prices ended the day higher. The significant increase in today's futures prices was due to the US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals ruling that most of the global tariff measures implemented by former President Trump were illegal, bringing positive macro - sentiment, and the upward trend of US - line freight rates also had a spill - over effect on the market. Additionally, MSC announced a blank - sailing plan for the Asia - Europe route, which was favorable for the futures price from a supply perspective. Looking ahead, Maersk's new weekly opening quotes continued to decline, and the likelihood of EC futures prices oscillating or oscillating downward was relatively high [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - **Position Management**: For those who have already obtained shipping positions but face full capacity or poor booking volumes during the off - peak peak season and are worried about falling freight rates, with a long spot exposure, they can short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) to lock in profits, with a recommended selling entry range of 1350 - 1450 [1]. - **Cost Management**: When shipping companies increase blank - sailing efforts or the market is about to enter the peak season, and they want to book cabins according to orders, with a short spot exposure, they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at present to determine the booking cost in advance, with a recommended buying entry range of 1150 - 1250 [1]. 3.2 Market Sentiment Factors 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - On August 29th local time, the US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that most of the global tariff measures implemented by former President Trump were illegal. These measures could remain in effect until October 14th to allow the US government to appeal to the Supreme Court. This ruling did not affect tariffs imposed under other regulations [2]. - On September 1st local time, due to expected slowdown in demand during the Golden Week holiday, MSC planned to adjust the shipping capacity on the Asia - Europe route from Week 39 to Week 41, canceling a total of four voyages [2]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - Maersk's new weekly opening quotes continued to decline, and the decline remained basically the same [3]. - The SCFIS European Line index accelerated its decline [3]. 3.3 EC Data 3.3.1 EC Basis Daily Changes - On September 3, 2025, the basis of EC2510 was 432.90 points, with a daily decrease of 49.30 points and a weekly decrease of 238.40 points. Other contracts also showed varying degrees of decline [4]. 3.3.2 EC Prices and Spreads - On September 3, 2025, the closing price of EC2510 was 1340.7 points, with a daily increase of 3.82% and a weekly increase of 1.65%. Different contracts had different price changes and spreads [4]. 3.3.3 EC Main Contract Speculation and Closing Price - Relevant data and trends are presented graphically, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [5]. 3.3.4 EC Main Contract Basis - Relevant data and trends are presented graphically, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [5]. 3.4 Container Shipping Spot Quotes - On September 11, Maersk's 20GP total quote for Shanghai - Rotterdam was $1175, up $10 from the previous period, and the 40GP total quote was $1970, up $20. On September 18, the 20GP opening quote was $1020, up $120 from the previous week, and the 40GP opening quote was $1700, up $200 [6]. - In the second week of September, Evergreen's 20GP total quote for Shanghai - Rotterdam was $1455, down $150 from the previous period, and the 40GP total quote was $2210, down $200 [6]. 3.5 Global Freight Rate Indexes - The latest value of SCFIS for the European route was 1773.6 points, down 216.6 points (-10.88%) from the previous value. Different global freight rate indexes showed different changes [7]. - The FBX comprehensive freight rate index was $1997 per FEU, down $11 (-0.55%) from the previous value [7]. 3.6 Global Major Port Waiting Times - On September 2, 2025, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 0.760 days, an increase of 0.321 days from the previous day. Different ports had different waiting time changes [14]. 3.7 Ship Speed and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Ports - On September 2, 2025, the speed of 8000 + container ships was 15.804 knots, a decrease of 0.022 knots from the previous day. The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorages remained at 17 [22].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical conflict and tariff fluctuations make the game difficult, suggesting light - participation or waiting and seeing [4]. - The overall freight rate is still declining, and the market is strongly volatile. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Rate Index - On September 1, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1773.60 points, down 10.9% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1013.90 points, down 2.6% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1098.17 points, up 6.02% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 929.56 points, down 14.23% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1396.85 points, up 44.97% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1445.06 points, up 29.70 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1481 USD/TEU, down 11.21% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1923 USD/FEU, up 16.97% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1156.32 points, down 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1685.80 points, down 4.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 774.39 points, down 3.1% from the previous period [2]. 3.2 PMI Data - The eurozone's August manufacturing PMI flash was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous 49.8), services PMI flash was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous 51), and composite PMI flash rose to 51.1, the highest since May 2024 [2]. - The US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI flash was 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high; the services PMI flash was 55.4; the Markit manufacturing PMI flash was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 [3]. - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2]. 3.3 Trade and Policy - Sino - US tariffs continue to be extended, and the negotiation has not made substantial progress. The tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the spot price has slightly decreased [4]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, it is recommended to try long positions lightly around 1300 for the 2510 contract and increase positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to wait and see or try lightly with small positions [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. 3.5 Market Conditions - On September 1, the main contract 2510 closed at 1291.4, up 1.53%, with a trading volume of 29,200 lots and an open interest of 52,300 lots, down 989 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily trading limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the margin is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]. 3.6 Geopolitical Events - On August 31, the Israeli Defense Minister announced that the Israeli army killed the spokesman of the Hamas Qassam Brigades in the Gaza Strip, but Hamas has not confirmed this news. The Israeli army has been expanding military operations against Hamas [5]. - On September 1, the Houthi armed forces launched a missile at an Israeli oil tanker in the northern Red Sea [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating weakly", and the trading strategy is "unilateral: oscillating weakly; arbitrage: 10 - 12 reverse spread rolling operation" [3] Core View of the Report - The freight rate of the container shipping index has been continuously falling and is approaching the cost line. Spot freight rates are bearish, with the September FAK freight rate center in the market at 2000 - 2200. Political and economic factors are neutral, and the container ship order book has reached 10 million TEU. The supply of shipping capacity is neutral, and the demand is also neutral. The OCEAN's September freight rate reduction rhythm has accelerated, which may put pressure on MSK to reduce prices to attract cargo. In the short term, the freight rate may fall below 1300, and the price of the 12 - contract is likely to show an oscillatingly weak operating trend [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Spot Freight Rates**: Bearish. The September prices of GEMINI, OA, PA, and MSC have all decreased, with the market FAK freight rate center in September at 2000 - 2200 [3] - **Political and Economic Factors**: Neutral. There are events such as the threat of revenge from the Yemeni Houthi armed forces, the extension of the exclusion list measures in the US - China trade investigation, the EU's proposed tariff on US goods, the container ship order book reaching 10 million TEU, and the US government's plan to expand national security tariffs [3] - **Shipping Capacity Supply**: Neutral. The subsequent shipping capacity deployment shows different levels in different months, and there is a transfer of ships from the US line to the European line in September [3] - **Demand**: Neutral. The overall loading rate is lower than the same period in the past two years, and the OA alliance's loading rate has a relatively large decline, resulting in a relatively large price reduction recently [3] - **Summary and Strategy**: The OCEAN's freight rate reduction may put pressure on MSK. In the short term, the freight rate may fall below 1300, and the 12 - contract price is likely to be oscillatingly weak. The trading strategy is unilateral oscillating weakness and 10 - 12 reverse spread rolling operation [3] Part Two: Price - **Spot Market**: The demand recovery is slow, the supply is high, a new alliance has been established, and the price is falling in the off - season [5] Part Two: Static Capacity - **Order Volume**: There are data on container ship order volumes in different loading capacities and time periods [15] - **Delivery Volume**: Data on container ship delivery volumes in different loading capacities and time periods are presented [18][20] - **Future Delivery**: Information on future container ship deliveries in different loading capacities, time periods, and quarterly seasonality is provided [24][26][27] - **Shipbreaking Price**: Data on shipbreaking prices of container ships in different loading capacities and new - building prices, including indices and prices in different loading capacities, are shown [31][33] - **Second - hand Ship Price**: Information on second - hand container ship prices, including indices and prices of ships with different loading capacities and ages, is presented [37][39][41] - **Existing Capacity**: Data on the existing capacity of container ships, including total capacity, capacity in different loading capacities, the proportion of ships over 25 years old, idle and retrofit ratios, average age, and shipbreaking average age, are provided [46][49][53] Part Three: Dynamic Capacity - **Ship Schedule**: Data on the total shipping capacity deployment from Shanghai to European base ports, as well as the capacity deployments of different alliances and shipping companies, are presented [60][61][63] - **Desulfurization Tower Installation**: Information on container ships with installed, being installed, and the average age and duration of desulfurization tower installation, as well as average speed and idle capacity, is provided [71][72][79]

集装箱运输市场日报 —— SCFI欧线降幅不减，短期震荡偏弱格局延续 2025/8/29 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 俞俊臣 投资咨询证号：Z0021065 EC风险管理策略建议 1. ONE9月上旬欧线报价继续下调。 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 舱位管理 已入手舱位，但运力偏饱满，或订舱货量不佳，旺季不 | 旺，担心运价下跌 | 多 | 为防止损失，可根据企业舱位，做空集运指数期货来 锁定利润 | EC2510 | 卖出 1350~1450 | | 成本管理 船司空班力度加大，或即将进入市场旺季，希望根据订单 | 情况进行订舱 | 空 | 为防止运价上涨而增加运输成本，可以在当前买入集 运指数期货，以提前确定订舱成本 | EC2510 | 买入 1150~1250 | source： 南华期货 【核心矛盾】 今日集运指数（欧线）期货各月合约价格震荡略偏下行。截至收盘，EC各月合约价格均有所回落。从交 易所排名前20大机构持仓增减去看， ...