Group 1: Northbound Capital Analysis - In Q2 2025, Northbound capital actively increased positions in both traditional economy sectors and new tracks, with significant additions in non-ferrous metals, transportation, public utilities, non-bank financials, and construction decoration [2][22] - Major reductions were observed in food and beverage, home appliances, and machinery sectors, indicating a shift from core assets to traditional economy and from old tracks to new tracks [2][22] - The absolute holding amounts showed significant decreases for companies like BOE A (-38.39%), Luxshare Precision (-38.29%), and Wuliangye (-30.22%) [23][24] Group 2: Dollar Outlook - The report suggests that the downtrend of the dollar is expected to continue at least until mid-2025, with recent upticks being merely a "rebound" rather than a "reversal" [3][29] - Factors contributing to the dollar's decline include deteriorating U.S. fiscal conditions and a loss of attractiveness as a global reserve currency [3][27] - The report anticipates a potential rebound in Q3 2025, but maintains that the overall downtrend remains dominant [29] Group 3: Credit Bond ETF Strategy - Since May, the credit bond market has exhibited independent trends, driven by rapid growth in credit bond ETF scales and expectations for future space [4][30] - The trading activity of component bonds has significantly increased, with higher turnover rates compared to non-component bonds [30][31] - The report indicates that the valuation of component bonds may further compress, with potential trading opportunities in non-component bonds due to liquidity premiums [32] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - Daikin Heavy Industries is positioned as the only supplier in the Asia-Pacific region capable of delivering offshore products to the European market, with a strong order backlog [11][35] - The company has transitioned to a DAP (Delivered at Place) product model, enhancing its service offerings and increasing order value [11][35] - Revenue projections for Daikin Heavy Industries are set at 6.51 billion, 8.40 billion, and 9.74 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profit estimates adjusted to 1.05 billion, 1.37 billion, and 1.76 billion yuan respectively [11][36] Group 5: Chemical Industry Analysis - Xin'an Chemical is recognized as a leading player in the glyphosate and silicone markets, with expectations for improved market conditions in the silicone sector [12][20] - The company has a glyphosate production capacity of 80,000 tons and is expanding its product range under a "1+2+N" strategy [12][20] - Revenue forecasts for Xin'an Chemical are projected at 15.5 billion, 17.3 billion, and 18.8 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profits expected to reach 299 million, 651 million, and 802 million yuan [12][20]

Core Insights - The report highlights a potential narrowing of the decline in PPI in the second half of 2025, with June CPI showing a slight improvement to 0.1% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of -0.1% [2] - Global manufacturing PMI has rebounded above the growth line, indicating an overall recovery in manufacturing activity, particularly in developed economies [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of various sectors, particularly those expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policies and improving economic conditions [4] Macroeconomic Overview - June CPI in China improved to 0.1% year-on-year, while PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, indicating a mixed inflationary environment [2] - Global manufacturing PMI showed a notable increase, with developed markets improving while some emerging markets like Vietnam and Indonesia showed marginal declines [2] Sector Analysis Fixed Income - The report discusses the impact of "anti-involution" policies on PPI and CPI, suggesting a potential stabilization in prices, with CPI expected to rise slightly to around 0.5% by Q4 2025 [5] - The report notes that the demand side remains critical for price elasticity, with industry self-discipline and private enterprise willingness being key factors [5] Machinery and Equipment - The report indicates a recovery in excavator sales, with June sales reaching 18,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, driven by strong export growth [8] - The growth in second-hand excavator exports is expected to stimulate domestic replacement demand, benefiting leading companies in the sector [8] Agriculture - The report highlights ongoing "anti-involution" efforts in the pig farming industry, which may lead to inventory release and improved profitability for high-quality pig farming companies [9] - The report suggests that the pig farming sector may gradually transition to a phase of high-quality competition, with recommendations for companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [9] Renewable Energy and Equipment - The report anticipates strong growth for offshore wind energy, with a significant increase in orders expected to drive performance for leading companies in the sector [19] - The report emphasizes the importance of technological advancements and capacity expansion in the offshore wind sector [19] Electronics and Chemicals - The report forecasts a substantial increase in net profit for Shengquan Group in the first half of 2025, driven by strong demand for electronic materials [20] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the company's growth trajectory, supported by favorable market conditions [20] Company-Specific Insights - Zhaojin Mining is rated as a "buy" with a target price of 23.44 HKD, driven by expected production growth and favorable gold price trends [15] - Harbin Electric is also rated as a "buy," with anticipated recovery in equipment demand across various energy sectors [15] - MGM China is highlighted for its strong performance in the non-gaming segment, benefiting from increased tourist traffic and successful entertainment events [17]

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 金融传媒行业领涨 A 股小幅震荡 ——市场分析 相关报告 《市场分析：成长行业领涨 A 股震荡上行》 2025-07-08 《市场分析：金融电力行业领涨 A 股小幅震 荡》 2025-07-07 投资要点： ◼ A 股市场综述 周三（07 月 09 日）A 股市场冲高遇阻、小幅震荡整理，早盘股指高 开后震荡上行，盘中沪指在 3512 点附近遭遇阻力，午后股指震荡回 落，盘中文化传媒、中药、酿酒以及银行等行业表现较好；保险、 有色金属、船舶制造以及风电设备等行业表现较弱，沪指全天基本 呈现小幅震荡整理的运行特征。创业板市场周二震荡上扬，创业板 成分指数全天表现强于主板市场。 ◼ 后市研判及投资建议 《市场分析：金融游戏行业领涨 A 股震荡上 扬》 2025-07-04 联系人： 李智 电话： 0371-65585629 地址： 郑州郑东新区商务外环路10号18楼 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道 1788 号 T1 座 22 楼 证券研究报告-市场分析 发布日期：2025 年 07 月 09 日 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][12]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 5.1-5.7 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 193%-228% [3]. - The second quarter of 2025 is expected to yield a net profit of 2.79-3.39 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 131%-180% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 21%-47% [3]. - The acceleration of overseas offshore engineering deliveries has led to record quarterly earnings, driven by the delivery of existing orders and a shift to higher value-added DAP delivery models [3][4]. - The company is expected to enhance its long-term profitability through self-built vessels and localized operations, with the KING ONE vessel anticipated to launch in the second half of 2025 [4]. - The European offshore wind market is recovering, with significant tendering expected from 2025 to 2027, which is likely to boost the company's market share [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - The company forecasts a net profit of 5.1-5.7 billion RMB for 25H1, with a significant increase in Q2 profits [3]. Operational Analysis - The company has seen a substantial increase in overseas project deliveries, contributing to record quarterly profits [3]. - The shift to a DAP delivery model has improved profit margins per ton [3]. - The strengthening of the Euro has positively impacted the company's foreign exchange gains [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit estimates for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted to 10.0 billion RMB, 14.0 billion RMB, and 19.1 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22, 15, and 11 [5].

Q&A 大金重工 20250708 摘要 2025 年上半年，公司海外业务实现突破性增长，主要得益于海外项目 交付量的大幅增加以及出口产品采用 DAP 交付模式，有效提升了整体盈 利水平。 国际形势变化导致外汇市场波动，特别是欧元和美元汇率变化，对公司 以欧元结算的对外业务产生积极影响，增加了汇兑收益。 二季度，公司在海外单桩、海塔及陆塔的发运量均环比增长，其中 TPLS 单桩保持高收益，WAK 单桩利润有所提升，海工装备成为利润增长的主 要贡献者。 下半年海外订单交付节奏预计优于上半年，发运总量将超过上半年，盈 利水平保持稳定，但确收节奏受航运时间影响。 2025 年初至今，公司在欧洲单桩和海塔订单方面表现出色，签单量排 名市场第一，并积极参与英国 AR7 项目扩容和德国第二轮拍卖。 截至目前，公司累计订单接近 50 万吨，计划 2025 年交付 15-20 万吨， 2026 年交付 20 万吨，且 2026 年订单盈利能力乐观，尤其是 TPLS 类 产品。 公司通过海外建厂，尤其针对深远海漂浮式项目，可降低 30%的成本， 自有特种运输船预计在 2026 年下水，提升运力并带来超额收益。 2025 年上半 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·风电设备 大金重工（002487） 2025 半年度业绩预告点评：业绩同比高增， 下半年排产订单持续向上 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 4,325 | 3,780 | 6,752 | 8,383 | 10,009 | | 同比（%） | (15.30) | (12.61) | 78.63 | 24.16 | 19.40 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 425.16 | 473.88 | 1,102.04 | 1,507.70 | 1,995.54 | | 同比（%） | (5.58) | 11.46 | 132.56 | 36.81 | 32.36 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.67 | 0.74 | 1.73 | 2.36 | 3.13 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 50.87 | 45.64 | 19.62 | 14.34 | 10.84 ...

李强指出，当前国际经贸格局正在发生深刻变化，单边主义、保护主义上升，各种 贸易投资壁垒增多，同时新一轮科技革命和产业变革正在深入推进，对企业来说有挑战 也有机遇。希望中资企业顺时应势、积极行动。要打造过硬品牌，加强前瞻布局，提 升"中国制造""中国创造"的全球竞争力。要深耕本地市场，为消费者提供更多畅销对路 的产品和服务，并以巴西为平台辐射更广阔的拉美市场，努力实现更大发展。要尊重当 地法律制度和文化习俗，依法合规开展经营，积极承担社会责任，努力塑造负责任、有 担当的中国企业形象。 与会企业代表表示，中资企业将立足自身优势和特点，加强合作，有效应对各类挑 战，坚持扎根当地，依法合规稳健经营，持续拓展金融、能源、农业、科技创新等领域 业务，维护海外中国企业良好形象，使中国同巴西等拉美国家建立更加紧密的经贸投资 关系，更好实现互利共赢。 当地时间7月8日，国务院总理李强在里约热内卢出席在巴西中资企业座谈会。新华 社记者 王晔 摄 新华社里约热内卢7月8日电 当地时间7月8日，国务院总理李强在里约热内卢出席在 巴西中资企业座谈会。中国银行、长城汽车、国家电网、金风科技、中粮集团、格力电 器、大华技术、中天科技等企业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the energy and new energy sectors [7] Core Insights - The report highlights a clear signal against "involution" in the market, suggesting an acceleration in market clearing [2] - The photovoltaic industry is at the bottom of its cycle, with future policy strength being a key variable affecting industry trends [4] - The wind power industry is expected to see significant growth in 2025, with strong domestic competitiveness in core components [4] - The new energy vehicle sector continues to grow rapidly, benefiting from low upstream raw material prices and stable profitability [5] Weekly Market Review - From June 29 to July 4, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.40%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.25% and 1.50%, respectively. The Shenwan Electric Power Equipment Index outperformed, rising by 1.99% [2][14] - Within sub-sectors, photovoltaic equipment rose by 5.76%, while wind power equipment fell by 0.86% [14][18] Key Sector Tracking - EVE Energy has submitted an IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with funds primarily allocated for projects in Hungary and Malaysia, and operational capital [3][28] - The photovoltaic industry is focusing on capacity consolidation in the silicon material segment and strengthening price regulation across the supply chain [4] - The wind power industry has over 90% localization in its supply chain, with significant advantages in upstream materials and components [4] Investment Recommendations - For the photovoltaic sector, it is advised to focus on silicon materials, glass, and battery segments that have undergone sufficient corrections [4] - In the wind power sector, companies like Goldwind Technology and Dongfang Cable are recommended for their strong market positions [4] - In the new energy vehicle sector, companies such as CATL and EVE Energy are highlighted for their stable profitability and growth potential [5]

公司报告 | 公司专题研究 大金重工（002487） 证券研究报告 打造"制造+服务"全产业链生态，管桩出海实现利润升维 行业层面：未来 3-5 年欧洲海风市场潜力与政策红利较大，是公司全球化 布局的优质战略高地，市场份额提升空间大。日韩等新兴市场或将为公司 带来新的增长机会。 公司层面：管桩出海布局领先，打造"制造+服务"全产业链生态模式 随着全球风机大型化和深远海开发发展趋势，叠加海外项目的高交付标 准、高附加值特点，对供应商在制造场地规模、港口条件、工艺设备能力、 综合方案解决能力等提出了更高的要求。配套缺口带来的服务机遇，将为 公司订单增长提供支撑。 1）公司是亚太区唯一实现海工产品交付欧洲市场的供应商。自 2019 年率 先成功开拓欧洲海风市场，2022 年开始连续斩获多个海外项目订单，2024 年公司全面进入欧洲海风市场，成功通过绝大多数欧洲头部业主的合格供 应商体系认证，并作为"一供"或"主供"形成实质性业务合作，覆盖欧 洲海风市场头部前五大业主，在手订单充足。 2）公司完成 DAP（目的地交货）产品模式切换，打通"制造+海运+交付" 一站式服务全链条，订单的附加值得以增加。针对海上风电装备运输 ...

最近一段时间，中欧之间的贸易摩擦愈发频繁，先是欧洲以"拉网式"的方式为中国商品设限，紧接着中国商务部启动了对欧洲的"反倾销调查"，首当其冲的 是白兰地。电动汽车的关税谈判尚未定论，中国已明确表示，未来将对欧盟医疗器械进口实施"反制"措施。 | | 中华人民共和国商务部 MINITING OF CONSERICE OF THE PEOPLES REPORTION OF CHINA | | | 中华人民共和国驻加拿大大使馆经济商务处 Economic and Commercial Office of the Embassy of the Reople's Repub | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 河口丁站 | 白页 | 经贸新闻 | 居致众庭 | 加拿大概况 政策法规 工作动态 市场 | | .. | 首页 > 工作动态 | | | | | 一份-1-19 | 我说:中华人民主题的学部 第四:转载 国际 法尔 | | | | | | 2024-01-06 05:46 | | | | | | 商务部贸易救济调查局负责人就对原产于欧盟的选 | | | | | | 口相关白兰地 ...