Core Viewpoint - In June, China's manufacturing sector showed resilience despite entering a traditional off-season, with the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to 49.7%, the highest level in three months, indicating an expansion in manufacturing activity [1][2]. Manufacturing PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, with 11 out of 21 surveyed industries in the expansion zone, reflecting a broader improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1][3]. - The continuous rise in PMI over the past two months suggests that macroeconomic recovery is underway, supported by recent policy measures [3][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - In June, the production index and new orders index were recorded at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, indicating accelerated manufacturing activity and improved market demand [4][5]. - The easing of external pressures, particularly in US-China trade relations, has contributed to a stabilization in manufacturing operations and a rebound in market demand [4][5]. Export and Inventory Trends - The new export orders index rose to 47.7%, showing improvement, although it remains below the expansion threshold, indicating that domestic demand is slightly outperforming external demand [5][6]. - The finished goods inventory index increased by 1.6 percentage points to 48.1%, while raw materials inventory rose by 0.6 percentage points to 48.0%, suggesting a growing willingness among enterprises to replenish stocks [5][6]. Price Trends in Manufacturing - The indices for major raw material purchase prices and factory gate prices both increased by 1.5 percentage points to 48.4% and 46.2%, respectively, indicating an overall improvement in manufacturing market prices [5][6]. Sector Performance - Key sectors such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods all maintained PMIs above 50, indicating continued expansion, while high-energy-consuming industries showed slight improvement with a PMI of 47.8% [5][6]. Enterprise-Level Insights - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 51.2%, indicating continued expansion, while medium-sized enterprises saw a recovery with a PMI of 48.6%. However, small enterprises experienced a decline with a PMI of 47.3% [6]. - The overall economic resilience suggests that, barring significant external shocks, China's manufacturing sector is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory in the second half of the year [6].

重点行业PMI稳中有升 产需指数同步扩张 国家统计局数据显示，从分类指数看，在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，生产指数、新订单指数和供应商配送时间指数均高于临界点，原材料库存指数 和从业人员指数低于临界点。 6月30日，国家统计局发布最新数据，6月份，制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为49.7%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，制造业景气水平继续改善。据了解，4月份，制 造业PMI为49%，比上月下降1.5个百分点。5月份，制造业PMI为49.5%，比上月上升0.5个百分点。6月份，制造业PMI继续上升至49.7%。 国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河解读表示，6月份，制造业PMI升至49.7%，在调查的21个行业中有11个位于扩张区间，比上月增加4个，制造 业景气面有所扩大。 中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬对21世纪经济报道记者表示，6月制造业PMI较上月回升0.2个百分点，好于季节性。其中，6月生产指数较上月回升0.3个百 分点，6月是传统生产淡季，但今年"淡季不淡"，企业生产仍在加快扩张。 前海开源基金首席经济学家、基金经理杨德龙对21世纪经济报道记者表示，我国制造业PMI连续两个月出现回升，这反映出当前随 ...

本文字数：2337，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 祝嫣然 今年二季度，受到美国关税政策变化的影响，制造业运行短期有所波动，但我国经济展现出了较强的 韧性，在短期放缓后迅速回稳。 国家统计局6月30日发布的6月份制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.7%，比上月上升0.2个百分点， 连续两个月回升，制造业景气水平继续改善。非制造业商务活动指数为50.5%，比上月上升0.2个百 分点。 中国物流与采购联合会特约分析师张立群表示，6月份PMI指数小幅回升，表明一系列增量政策的效 果继续显现。订单类指数回升反映扩大内需政策效果有所显现；生产指数、采购量指数上升反映企业 生产经营活动有回暖趋势。同时应注意到PMI指数仍处荣枯线下，生产经营活动预期指数仍在下降， 反映需求不足的企业占比仍在扩大，市场引导的需求收缩对制造业生产投资的制约仍然突出。 2025.06. 30 张立群强调，当前宏观经济政策逆周期调节与市场引导的需求收缩正处相互角力的关键阶段，必须坚 持不懈持续加大扩内需各项政策力度，特别要显著加强政府公共产品投资力度，扩大投资规模，有效 有力带动制造业企业订单显著增加，带动制造业生产投资持续活跃。 产需指 ...

在市场需求和企业原材料采购活动同步扩张的支撑下，主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数均较上月明显回升。制造业市场价格总体 水平有所改善。从不同规模企业看，制造业大中型企业景气度均有所提高，特别是大型企业扩张势头有所加快，对制造业整体支撑作用显著。 央视网消息：国家统计局、中国物流与采购联合会6月30日联合发布的数据显示，6月份中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.7%，比上 月上升0.2个百分点，制造业景气水平继续改善。 6月份制造业采购经理指数升至49.7%，在调查的21个行业中有11个位于扩张区间，比上月增加4个，制造业景气面有所扩大。从产需两端 看，生产指数和新订单指数分别为51%和50.2%，比上月上升0.3和0.4个百分点，新出口订单指数也连续2个月上升。制造业生产活动加快，市 场需求有所改善。在产需回升的带动下，企业采购意愿也有所增强，采购量指数为50.2%，较上月上升2.6个百分点。 国家统计局服务业调查中心企业景气处处长霍丽慧称："从重点行业来看，装备制造业、高技术制造业和消费品行业的PMI都是连续两个 月位于扩张区间，其中装备制造业的生产指数和新订单指数本月均高于53%，相关行业产需两端还 ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI index in June shows a slight recovery, indicating the effectiveness of a series of incremental policies, despite ongoing challenges in demand and production activities [1][4][11]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for June is reported at 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking two consecutive months of improvement [1]. - The new orders index has returned to the expansion zone at 50.2%, increasing by 0.4 percentage points after two months below 50% [4]. - The production index stands at 51%, reflecting stable expansion in production activities, with a 0.3 percentage point increase from last month [5]. - The procurement volume index has also returned to the expansion zone at 50.2%, up 2.6 percentage points [5]. - Large enterprises show a PMI of 51.2%, indicating accelerated expansion, while medium and small enterprises remain below the critical point at 48.6% and 47.3%, respectively [7]. Price Trends - In June, both the purchasing price index and the factory price index have stabilized, with the purchasing price index at 48.4% and the factory price index at 46.2%, both up 1.5 percentage points from the previous month [6]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.5%, reflecting continued expansion, with a 0.2 percentage point increase [11]. - The construction industry shows a business activity index of 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, indicating a recovery in construction activities [12]. Future Outlook - The manufacturing sector is expected to maintain a steady growth trend in the second half of the year, supported by ongoing policy measures aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing external trade [8].

【导读】国家统计局最新公布，6月份 PMI为49.7% 来源：统计微讯 【数据发布】2025年6月中国采购经理指数运行情况 中国物流与采购联合会 一、中国制造业采购经理指数运行情况 国家统计局服务业调查中心 6 月份， 制造业采购经理指数（ PMI ）为 49.7% ，比上月上升 0.2 个百分点，制造业景气 水平继续改善。 从企业规模看，大型企业 PMI 为 51.2% ，比上月上升 0.5 个百分点，高于临界点；中型企 业 PMI 为 48.6% ，比上月上升 1.1 个百分点，低于临界点；小型企业 PMI 为 47.3% ，比 上月下降 2.0 个百分点，低于临界点。 从分类指数看，在构成制造业 PMI 的 5 个分类指数中，生产指数、新订单指数和供应商配送 时间指数均高于临界点，原材料库存指数和从业人员指数低于临界点。 生产指数为 51.0% ，比上月上升 0.3 个百分点，表明制造业企业生产活动加快。 新订单指数为 50.2% ，比上月上升 0.4 个百分点，表明制造业市场需求有所改善。 原材料库存指数为 48.0% ，比上月上升 0.6 个百分点，低于临界点，表明制造业主要原材 料库存量降幅继续收 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) - In June, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7%, with 11 out of 21 surveyed industries in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 from the previous month, indicating an overall expansion in manufacturing sentiment [2] - The production index and new orders index were at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing improvements of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points, suggesting accelerated production activities and improved market demand [2] - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points, indicating significant support for the manufacturing sector, while small enterprises saw a decline in PMI to 47.3%, down 2.0 percentage points [3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index - The non-manufacturing business activity index reached 50.5%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [4] - The construction industry showed a notable increase with a business activity index of 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, reflecting a recovery in construction activities, particularly in civil engineering [4] - The business activity expectation index for the non-manufacturing sector was at 56.0%, indicating optimism among service industry enterprises regarding future developments [4] Group 3: Comprehensive PMI Output Index - The comprehensive PMI output index rose to 50.7%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points, indicating an acceleration in overall production and business activities across enterprises [5] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index contributed to the comprehensive PMI output index, standing at 51.0% and 50.5%, respectively [5]

6月份，制造业PMI升至49.7%，在调查的21个行业中有11个位于扩张区间，比上月增加4个，制造业景 气面有所扩大。 6月份制造业采购经理指数继续回升 非制造业商务活动指数扩张有所加快 ——国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河解读2025年6月中国采购经理指数 2025年6月30日国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。对此， 国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河进行了解读。 6月份，制造业采购经理指数、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为49.7%、50.5%和 50.7%，比上月上升0.2、0.2和0.3个百分点，三大指数均有所回升，我国经济景气水平总体保持扩张。 一、制造业采购经理指数继续回升 二、非制造业商务活动指数扩张有所加快 6月份，非制造业商务活动指数为50.5%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，非制造业总体继续保持扩张。 (一)服务业景气度基本稳定。服务业商务活动指数为50.1%，比上月略降0.1个百分点。从行业看，电信 广播电视及卫星传输服务、货币金融服务、资本市场服务、保险等行业商务活动指数均位于60.0%以上 高位景气区间，业务总量增长较快。随 ...

美军炸弹落伊朗，A股周一谁笑谁哭？ 特朗普的社交媒体帖子宣告"和平时刻"降临，千里之外的A股股民账户却在为战争买单倒计时。 6月22日清晨，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体投下一枚"信息炸弹"：美军成功打击伊朗三处核心核设施，所有军机安全返航，文末不忘附上一句"现在是和平 的时刻"。 此次突袭堪称现代战争史上的"静默闪电战"。 从特朗普宣称"考虑动武"到炸弹落地，仅隔48小时，期间美军完成了一场精密部署：战机转入地下掩体、核潜艇悄然离港、隐身轰炸机进入待命状态。当 GBU-57"巨型钻地炸弹"砸向福尔多地下核设施时，伊朗防空系统竟未监测到任何交火信号。 这次行动标志着美国从中东代理人战争转向直接干预的战略转折。与6月13日以色列发动的"狮子勇气行动"不同，此次美军亲自摧毁伊朗核命脉，动用了 可穿透60米钢筋混凝土的终极武器。 美DKF 中专利多少 | 2017-01-11 | 11:20:50 | P 俄罗斯恐将出手! 发出"最强硬表态" 若哈梅内伊遇刺 将作出"非常负面"的反应 线不接受伊朗政权发生重建的仙鹰军用言潘多拉魔盒 時刻之战或扩大军军国战争? 河南家公用自由 發表可算產產品含分時買票， 伊朗良發型箱 "不 ...

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2025-06-03 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 分析师:崔超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523120001 Email:cuichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《2.2%以上，城投开抢？——信用周 报 20240526》 - 2025.05.26 固收点评 景气边际回升，政策仍需发力 ——5 月 PMI 解读 主要数据 5 月制造业 PMI 为 49.5%，前值 49.0%；非制造业商务活动指数 50.3%，前值 50.4%；综合 PMI 为 50.4%，前值 50.2%。 政策宽松力度不及预期，货币政策超预期收紧。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 核心观点 5 月中美达成关税暂缓执行协议，中美贸易回暖，进口指数和新 出口订单指数回升，带动国内供需回暖，制造业 PMI 环比升高。考虑 到新订单指数仍处于景气线下，企业扩产意愿不强，价格水平继续走 低，外需边际改善对景气水平的提振或有限。美国逆全球化政策对中 国经济存在长期且负面影 ...