Group 1 - In July, China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 49.3%, influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and adverse weather conditions [1] - The production index and new orders index for July were 50.5% and 49.4%, respectively, indicating a slowdown in market demand despite continued expansion in manufacturing activities [1] - Major raw material purchase price index rose to 51.5%, marking the first increase above the critical point since March, while the factory price index was at 48.3% [1] Group 2 - Large enterprises' PMI was 50.3%, down 0.9 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises' PMI improved to 49.5%, indicating a continued recovery in sentiment [1] - Key industries such as equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing maintained PMIs above the critical point at 50.3% and 50.6%, respectively [2] - The production and business activity expectation index rose to 52.6%, reflecting increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises [2]

Manufacturing PMI Insights - June manufacturing PMI improved slightly from 49.5% in May to 49.7%, slightly above Bloomberg consensus of 49.6% but still below seasonal levels[1] - Production index rose by 0.3 percentage points to 51.0%, while new orders index increased from 49.8% to 50.2%[3] - New export orders index saw a minor increase from 47.5% to 47.7%, remaining below seasonal averages[5] Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - Non-manufacturing business activity index rose by 0.2 percentage points to 50.5%, with the construction sector showing significant recovery[6] - Service sector index slightly declined to 50.1%, indicating mixed performance across industries[6] Price Trends and Economic Outlook - Both purchasing prices and factory prices showed signs of recovery, with raw material prices index rising by 1.5 percentage points to 48.4%[7] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies post July 9 may disrupt future export and production activities, necessitating stronger monetary and fiscal policies[2] Employment and Business Expectations - Employment index in manufacturing fell by 0.2 percentage points to 47.9%, indicating ongoing challenges in labor market stability[3] - Business activity expectations index decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 52%, reflecting cautious outlook among manufacturers[3]

Group 1: Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Recovery - In June, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7%, with 11 out of 21 surveyed industries in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 industries from the previous month, indicating an overall expansion in manufacturing sentiment [2] - The production index and new orders index were at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing improvements of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting accelerated production activities and improved market demand [2] - The purchasing volume index increased to 50.2%, up by 2.6 percentage points, reflecting enhanced procurement willingness among enterprises due to the recovery in production and demand [2] Group 2: Price Index Recovery - The main raw material purchase price index and factory price index were at 48.4% and 46.2%, respectively, both rising by 1.5 percentage points, indicating an overall improvement in manufacturing market prices [3] - The increase in prices was influenced by rising international crude oil prices, particularly affecting the petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing industries, while the black metal smelting and rolling processing industries saw a decline in price indices due to falling iron ore prices and insufficient terminal demand [3] Group 3: Business Activity Index in Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.5%, up by 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [5] - The service industry business activity index was at 50.1%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points, with certain sectors like telecommunications and financial services showing strong growth, while consumer-related sectors experienced a decline [5] - The construction industry business activity index rose to 52.8%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points, indicating a recovery in construction activities, particularly in civil engineering [5] Group 4: Comprehensive PMI Output Index - The comprehensive PMI output index was at 50.7%, up by 0.3 percentage points, indicating an overall acceleration in production and business activities across enterprises [6] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index were at 51.0% and 50.5%, respectively, contributing to the overall expansion reflected in the comprehensive PMI output index [6]

Core Viewpoints - The manufacturing PMI for May increased marginally to 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity [2][10][52] - The new export index remains low, while domestic demand, particularly in consumer goods and equipment manufacturing, shows significant improvement [2][21] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI shows overall improvement, with production and new order indices rising by 0.9 and 0.6 percentage points to 50.7% and 49.8%, respectively [2][52] - The production index has recovered above the expansion threshold, while the new order index remains in contraction territory, indicating faster production but weaker demand [2][10] - Industries with high domestic demand, such as equipment manufacturing and consumer goods, have seen PMIs rise by 1.6 and 0.8 percentage points to 51.2% and 50.2% [2][21] - Conversely, export-dependent sectors like textiles and chemicals have underperformed, with production and new order indices below the critical point [2][21] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI decreased slightly to 50.3%, with the construction sector experiencing a notable decline due to weak real estate performance [2][67] - The construction PMI fell by 0.9 percentage points to 51%, while civil engineering activities are accelerating, as indicated by a PMI of 62.3% [29][67] - Service sector PMI saw a marginal increase to 50.2%, driven by improved activity in tourism and dining during the holiday period [40][67] Future Outlook - Uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies remain significant, necessitating close monitoring of fiscal policies' impact on domestic demand [45] - The recent court ruling against Trump's tariffs has created a temporary freeze on tariff enforcement, adding to the external uncertainties [45] - Service consumption and infrastructure investment are expected to be key areas for fiscal support, potentially enhancing domestic demand [45]

Core Viewpoints - The manufacturing PMI for May increased marginally to 49.5%, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity, although it remains below the expansion threshold of 50 [2][10] - The new export index is low, but domestic demand, particularly in consumer goods and equipment manufacturing, shows significant improvement [2][21] - The service sector PMI also saw a slight increase, driven by improvements in life services, particularly during the "May Day" holiday [40][67] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5%, with production and new orders indices increasing by 0.9 and 0.6 percentage points to 50.7% and 49.8%, respectively [2][52] - The production index has recovered above the expansion line, while the new orders index remains in contraction territory, indicating a disparity between production acceleration and weak demand [2][10] - Industries with strong domestic demand, such as equipment manufacturing and consumer goods, showed better performance, with PMIs rising by 1.6 and 0.8 percentage points to 51.2% and 50.2% [21][24] New Orders and Exports - The internal demand orders index rose above the expansion line to 50.1%, while the new export orders index increased by 2.8 percentage points to 47.5%, indicating a divergence in recovery between domestic and export orders [3][24] - The average value of new export orders over April and May remains lower than in March, suggesting ongoing pressure on exports [3][24] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI decreased slightly to 50.3%, primarily due to a decline in the construction sector, which fell by 0.9 percentage points to 51% [67][29] - Despite the decline in construction, civil engineering activities are accelerating, with the civil engineering PMI rising to 62.3% [29][84] - The service sector PMI increased by 0.1 percentage points to 50.2%, supported by active consumer spending during the holiday period [40][67] Future Outlook - Uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies remain significant, with ongoing monitoring of fiscal policies' support for domestic demand [45][45] - The focus will be on the potential for fiscal measures to bolster service consumption and infrastructure investment, which are expected to enhance domestic demand support [45][45]

屠 强 资深高级宏观分析师 联系人： 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 事件： 4月30日，国家统计局公布4月PMI指数，制造业PMI为49%、前值50.5%；非制造业PMI为50.4%、 前值50.8%。 核心观点：4月新出口订单已明显下滑，但内需如基建与消费品行业PMI仍维持韧性。 4月PMI整体与分项读数均有走弱，但相对来看新订单指数更弱，生产仍维持较高水平。 4月制造业PMI 边际下行1.5pct至49%；剔除供应商配货指数的PMI也回落1.5pct。结构上生产、新订单指数均有回落，边 际分别下行2.8、2.6pct。由于PMI为环比指标，反映本月制造业景气度较上月的边际变化；产需对比看， 新订单指数下行至49.2%，而生产指数仍在荣枯线附近（49.8%），反映本月需求偏弱，生产景气水平相 对较高。 需求内部呈现分化特征，其中新出口订单指数降幅较大，但内需订单更具韧性。 生产景气相对较高的情 况下，4月外贸货运量同比上行0.7pct至1.3%，主因前期订单在"抢出口"；而4月新出口订单指数大幅回落 4.3pct至44.7%，或意味着后续出口有较大压力。对比之下，内需订单指数本月下滑2.3pct，但绝对水平仍 在荣枯 ...