Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 34 CNY, indicating a potential upside from the current price of 28.79 CNY [4][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 115.78 billion CNY in 2024, a decrease of 8.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 8.45 billion CNY, down 19% year-on-year. However, in Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 33.02 billion CNY, reflecting a 1.4% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 4.87 billion CNY, down 17.7% year-on-year, but with a significant increase in non-recurring profit [5][6]. - The company has a diversified product portfolio, with liquid milk accounting for 59.98%, milk powder and dairy products 26.92%, and frozen products 12.54% of total revenue [2]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 12.2 CNY per 10 shares, resulting in a dividend yield of approximately 4.24% [5]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company experienced a significant decline in performance due to a combination of factors including a decrease in birth rates and intensified industry competition, leading to a goodwill impairment of 3.04 billion CNY [6]. - The company expects gradual improvement in performance from 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of 10.71 billion CNY, 12.18 billion CNY, and 13.40 billion CNY, representing year-on-year growth rates of 26.7%, 13.8%, and 10% respectively [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are projected to be 1.68 CNY, 1.91 CNY, and 2.11 CNY, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 17, 15, and 14 [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry [1] Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is gaining attention due to increased external uncertainties and positive domestic policy signals, with a focus on boosting domestic demand as a key driver for economic growth [12][16] - The liquor sector is expected to show a "front low, back high" performance trend for the year, with a focus on inventory digestion in the first half and gradual demand recovery in the second half [17][32] - The consumer goods sector, particularly those related to the catering supply chain and benefiting from fertility policy catalysts, is highlighted for potential investment opportunities [39] Summary by Sections 1. Policy Expectations and Industry Focus - Increased external uncertainties have led to a heightened focus on domestic demand as a crucial element for economic growth [12] - Recent government policies aimed at boosting consumption have positively influenced market confidence, with a comprehensive action plan to enhance consumer spending [13][16] 2. Liquor Sector - Liquor sales during the Spring Festival saw a year-on-year decline of approximately 10%, with a focus on inventory management during the off-peak season [17] - High-end liquor demand remains stable, while mid-range and regional brands are experiencing varied performance based on market conditions [19] - Major liquor companies are engaging in share buybacks and increasing shareholdings to bolster market confidence [24][30] 3. Consumer Goods Sector - The report emphasizes the importance of sectors related to the catering supply chain, with specific attention to the seasoning, beer, dairy, and snack segments [39] - The seasoning sector is expected to benefit from a recovery in restaurant consumption, while the beer sector is poised for growth due to the resurgence of dining scenarios [40] - Dairy demand is anticipated to rise following the introduction of fertility subsidies in various regions, which could positively impact dairy company performance [39]

Core Insights - New Dairy achieved a revenue of 10.665 billion yuan and a net profit of 538 million yuan in 2023, marking a 24.8% increase in net profit [1] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.625 billion yuan and a net profit of 133 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 48.46% [1] - The company is in the second year of its five-year strategic plan, focusing on boosting dairy consumption amid a slowing industry growth and intensified competition [1][3] Financial Performance - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 5.25%, an increase of 1.69 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Operating cash flow improved significantly, reaching 160 million yuan [3] - The asset-liability ratio decreased by 2.38 percentage points compared to the beginning of 2025, indicating improved financial health [3] Strategic Initiatives - New Dairy continues to implement its "Fresh Cube Strategy," focusing on core product categories, with low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt showing mid-single-digit growth [3] - High-end fresh milk and low-temperature modified milk achieved double-digit growth, with the "24-hour" fresh milk high-end series seeing over 15% revenue growth [3] - The company is actively involved in the "Quality Milk Project," enhancing quality from farm to table and participating in the establishment of 31 standards [3] Innovation and Development - In 2024, New Dairy filed 37 patent applications, including 14 invention patents, and received 19 patent grants, with 8 being invention patents [3] - The company has built a resource library of over 2,000 unique strains of lactic acid bacteria, leveraging key technologies for product innovation [3] Distribution and Retail Expansion - The "Fresh Go" system allows for nationwide delivery coverage across 141 cities and regions, with a standardized delivery process [4] - New Dairy has surpassed 500 image stores in 2024, enhancing its retail presence [4] - The company aims to achieve revenue growth and improved net profit margins in 2025, focusing on long-term value creation [4]

Core Insights - New Dairy achieved a revenue of 10.665 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decline of 0.66% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 24.80% to 538 million yuan, marking five consecutive years of double-digit growth [1][2] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.625 billion yuan, up 0.42% year-on-year, and a net profit of 133 million yuan, reflecting a significant growth of 48.46% [1] - The company is in the second year of its new five-year strategic plan, focusing on boosting dairy consumption amid a challenging market environment [1][3] Financial Performance - Total assets at the end of 2024 were approximately 8.879 billion yuan, down 0.66% from the previous year [2] - Net assets attributable to shareholders increased by 19.49% to approximately 3.055 billion yuan [2] - Basic and diluted earnings per share rose by 24% to 0.62 yuan [2] Strategic Focus - The company emphasizes the "Fresh Cube Strategy" to enhance core business and drive consumer demand, focusing on fresh dairy products [1][3] - New Dairy is committed to product innovation and channel transformation to adapt to changing consumer trends [3][4] - The company has made significant investments in supply chain excellence and has been recognized for its contributions to quality dairy production [4] Innovation and Technology - New Dairy has maintained a double-digit revenue contribution from new products for four consecutive years, with its "24-hour" fresh milk series seeing over 15% growth [5] - The company is advancing its digital transformation through self-developed platforms to enhance operational efficiency [5][6] - New Dairy is exploring innovative marketing strategies, including live-streaming, to engage with consumers [7] Market Positioning - The company is expanding its direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels, achieving nationwide delivery capabilities and enhancing customer service [6] - New Dairy's brand initiatives focus on health and nutrition, aiming to create immersive consumer experiences [7] - The dairy market in China is expected to continue its steady growth, with a shift towards low-temperature and functional products [7][8] Future Outlook - New Dairy plans to continue leveraging its "Fresh Cube Strategy" to drive revenue growth and improve profit margins [8] - The company aims to strengthen its core business through technology and regional development, contributing to the revitalization of the Chinese dairy industry [8]

你是否曾好奇，全球那些令人瞩目的品牌背后究竟隐藏着什么成功的秘诀？ FBIF2025带来四十余个品牌案例，通过这一系列成功品牌，我们将带你一探究竟，揭密他们如何通过 创新、策略和独特的价值定位在市场上脱颖而出。 准备好从这些案例中汲取灵感了吗？ 全体大会 【案例一 ：东鹏饮料 】 国内纵深，国际横拓——双轮驱动韧性增长 【 分享嘉宾 】 胡亚军 ，集团副总裁， 东鹏饮料 【时间】 5月10日 14:40-15:20 【 场次 】 全体大会 2025年第一季度，东鹏饮料实现营收48.48亿元，同比增长39.23%；净利润达9.8亿元，同比增长 47.62%，展现出强劲的内生动力。在国内经营稳健的基础上，公司加速推进国际化战略。在全球地缘 格局深度调整、中国品牌加速出海的关键时刻，FBIF2025 全体大会将迎来一场对话：FBIF创始人贝拉 将对话东鹏饮料集团副总裁胡亚军先生，围绕 中国民族快消品牌出海的全球化探索之路 展开深度交 流。 作为中国快消出海的重要观察者与实战操盘者，胡亚军先生将分享他对海外市场变化的最新研判，回应 行业关注的"出海难题"背后的真正逻辑，并就东鹏如何从华南起步、布局中东、走向全球的路径 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the consumer goods industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The policy to boost domestic demand is strong, and quality companies are showing signs of recovery, suggesting an active investment approach [3] Summary by Sections Beer Industry - The beer sector is witnessing a stabilization in demand, with leading companies starting to clear inventory risks and actively exploring new channels [12] - The first quarter of 2025 shows a slight improvement in restaurant consumption, with beer sales expected to grow due to low inventory levels and seasonal demand [9][12] - Investment recommendations include focusing on quality beer leaders such as China Resources Beer, Qingdao Beer, and Yanjing Beer, with an emphasis on the upcoming peak season for inventory replenishment [14][17] Snack Industry - The snack sector is experiencing varied sales performance, with a notable growth in konjac-based products, indicating a shift towards high-value offerings [21][22] - Companies are enhancing product quality and competitive pricing to adapt to the current consumer trend towards value [22] - Recommended stocks include Wei Long and Yan Jin Pu Zi, which are expected to maintain strong growth due to their market positioning and product offerings [29] Dairy and Beverage Industry - The dairy sector is expected to see a supply-demand turning point by the end of 2025, driven by policy support and market adjustments [32][41] - Beverage companies, particularly those focusing on functional drinks, are projected to maintain high growth rates, with East Peak Beverage being highlighted for its strong market position and growth potential [45][46] - Investment focus should be on companies that can leverage the recovery in consumer demand and improve operational efficiency [41][45] Restaurant Supply Chain - The restaurant supply chain is showing signs of recovery, with a stabilization in demand and a competitive landscape pushing for efficiency improvements [56] - The first quarter of 2025 is expected to focus on inventory reduction, with profitability likely to improve as the market stabilizes [57] - The recommendation is to monitor the recovery in restaurant demand and the associated supply chain dynamics [50][56]

Group 1: Hong Kong Stock Market - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 23,426.6 points, down 1.11% for the week [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 2.36%, while the National Enterprises Index decreased by 1.55% [1] - Notable declines in technology stocks included Xiaomi Group down 6.67%, Meituan down 4.5%, and Tencent Holdings down 0.4% [1] - Economist Hong Hao indicated that the market is at a critical resistance level, and further increases depend on the realization of expectations such as profit growth in tech companies and new economic policies [1] Group 2: Pop Mart Financial Performance - Pop Mart reported a revenue of 13.04 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 106.9%, with adjusted net profit reaching 3.4 billion RMB, up 185.9% [2] - Domestic revenue was 7.97 billion RMB, growing by 52.3%, while overseas revenue reached 5.07 billion RMB, a significant increase of 375.2% [2] - The stock price of Pop Mart rose over 9% to 153.70 HKD, with a market capitalization of 206.41 billion HKD [2] - The Southeast Asia market generated 2.4 billion RMB, accounting for 47.4% of overseas revenue, with a staggering growth of 619.1% [2] Group 3: Mengniu Dairy Financial Performance - Mengniu Dairy reported a revenue of 88.6748 billion RMB for 2024, a decline of 10.1%, with a net profit of only 104.5 million RMB, down 97.8% [3] - In the second half of 2024, Mengniu's revenue was 44 billion RMB, down 7.4%, with a net loss of 2.34 billion RMB [3] - The dairy industry is facing challenges, with overall sales down 2.7%, and Mengniu's specific issues include significant impairment losses related to its acquisitions [3][4] Group 4: CK Hutchison Holdings - CK Hutchison Holdings has postponed its plan to sell overseas port assets, with no agreements expected to be signed this week [5][6] - The company had previously reached a principle agreement to sell 80% of its port assets to a consortium led by BlackRock, covering 43 overseas ports in 23 countries [6][7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The performance of the food and beverage index showed a 0.4% increase from March 24 to March 28, ranking third among primary sub-industries, outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.4 percentage points. The leading sub-industries included meat products (+2.9%), dairy products (+2.1%), and beer (+2.0%) [4][11][12] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw significant performance differentiation among companies, with several reporting improved earnings. For instance, Shuanghui Development experienced comprehensive profit improvement, while Tianwei Foods exceeded previous profit forecasts due to strong demand and reduced raw material costs [4][11] - The outlook for the first quarter of 2025 suggests that the industry is at a bottoming phase, with expectations of gradual performance recovery in subsequent quarters. It is recommended to increase allocations in the liquor, beer, and snack sectors [4][11] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The food and beverage index outperformed the market with a 0.4% increase, ranking third among industries. Key performers included Miaokelando, Guangming Meat, and Jiahe Foods, while Maikui'er, Lianhua Holdings, and Xiwang Foods faced declines [12][13] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased. For example, the price of fresh milk was 3.1 yuan/kg, down 12.5% year-on-year, while pork prices increased by 2.3% year-on-year to 20.9 yuan/kg [18][21] - The price of imported barley fell by 10.4% year-on-year, which may alleviate cost pressures for beer companies [27][28] Company Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, Ganyuan Foods, and Ximai Foods, with each showing strong growth potential and strategic advantages in their respective markets [5][49]

证券研究报告 育儿补贴政策催化，关注乳品估值修复 食品饮料 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 17 日 ——食品饮料行业周报 投资评级：推荐（维持） 最近一年走势 执业证书编号：S0230520050001 邮箱：wangf@hlzq.com 周报》2025.03.05 《促消费政策积极，关注需求修复边际 改善—食品饮料行业周报》2025.02.17 《春节旺季消费边际改善，白酒动销符 合预期—食品饮料行业周报》2025.02.11 华龙证券研究所 摘要： 2025.3.3-2025.3.14 申万食品饮料板块上涨 6.98%，跑赢上证指数 4.01pct，在 31 个申万一级行业中排名第六位，涨幅居前。"两会" 政府工作报告提出，2025 年政府工作任务要大力提振消费，全方位 扩大国内需求。加快补上内需特别是消费短板，使内需成为拉动经济 增长的主动力和稳定锚。3 月 17 日，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公 厅印发《提振消费专项行动方案》，要求各地区各部门认真贯彻落实。 我们认为在扩大内需，提振消费的积极政策导向下，食品饮料板块有 望迎来好转，我们维持行业"推荐"评级。 分析师：王芳 白酒：2025.3.3-2 ...

超配（维持） 食品饮料行业双周报（2025/02/28-2025/03/13） 行 食品饮料行业 2025 年 3 月 14 日 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 两会积极定调，关注需求复苏进程 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 行 业 研 究 业 周 报 邮箱： huangdongyi@dgzq.com.cn 食品饮料（申万）指数走势 资料来源：同花顺,东莞证券研究所 相关报告 证 券 研 究 报 告 ◼ 行情回顾：2025年2月28日-2025年3月13日，SW食品饮料行业指数整体 上涨1.62%，板块涨幅位居申万一级行业第十位，跑赢同期沪深300指数 约3.05个百分点。 ◼ 行业周观点：两会积极定调，关注需求复苏进程。今年政府工作报告提 出，要大力提振消费、提高投资效益，全方位扩大国内需求。此外，国 务院新闻办公室将于2025年3月17日下午3时举行新闻发布会，请有关 ...