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广发期货日评-20250918
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 05:06
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market may price in the probability of the Fed restarting rate cuts ahead of the September FOMC meeting. If volatility continues to decline, consider a long straddle options strategy for stock index futures [2]. - In the bond market, sentiment has improved, and Treasury bond futures have strengthened. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield may peak at 1.8% without incremental negative news, but downward movement is limited in the short - term. T2512 is expected to trade between 107.5 - 108.35 [2]. - Gold may enter a high - level consolidation phase, and the long straddle options strategy should be closed with profit. Silver's volatility has declined, and it is trading between 40.5 - 42.5 dollars. Consider selling out - of - the - money put options at high prices [2]. - The main contract of the container shipping index (European line) is in a weak oscillation. Consider a spread arbitrage between the December and October contracts [2]. - Coal supply contraction expectations have resurfaced, and coking coal has driven up steel prices. Iron ore prices are supported by resuming shipments, rising hot metal production, and restocking demand [2]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper is expected to trade between 79000 - 81500. Alumina may oscillate widely around 2900 in the short - term. Aluminum and aluminum alloy are expected to trade within certain ranges [2]. - In the energy and chemical market, the short - term crude oil market lacks strong drivers. The urea supply pressure may ease after the maintenance season, but demand restricts the upside. PX and PTA are expected to oscillate in the short - term [2]. - In the agricultural products market, palm oil is supported by falling production. Sugar is expected to be shorted in the short - term, and cotton should be observed on a wait - and - see basis [2]. - In the special and new energy products market, glass and rubber should be observed for the sustainability of spot sales. Industrial silicon is in a strong oscillation, and lithium carbonate is expected to trade between 70,000 - 75,000 [2]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: The export chain has risen, and A - share major indices are in the green. Consider a long straddle options strategy if volatility declines [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Bond market sentiment has improved. T2512 is expected to trade between 107.5 - 108.35. Use a range - trading strategy and be cautious about chasing up in the short - term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold may enter high - level consolidation, and the long straddle options strategy should be closed with profit. Silver is trading between 40.5 - 42.5 dollars. Consider selling out - of - the - money put options at high prices [2]. Black - **Steel**: Coal supply contraction expectations have resurfaced, and coking coal has driven up steel prices. Short - term long positions are recommended [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipments have resumed, hot metal production has risen, and restocking demand supports prices. Consider long positions in the 2601 contract between 780 - 850 and short hot - rolled coils [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Coal production area减产 expectations have increased, and downstream restocking demand has improved. Consider long positions in the 2601 contract between 1150 - 1300 and short coke [2]. - **Coke**: The second round of price cuts has been implemented, and the third round is difficult. Consider long positions in the 2601 contract between 1650 - 1800 and short coke while long coking coal [2]. Non - Ferrous - **Copper**: The 25bp rate cut was in line with expectations, and the price is expected to trade between 79000 - 81500 [2]. - **Alumina**: Supply - side disturbances in Guinea have increased. It is expected to oscillate widely around 2900 in the short - term [2]. - **Aluminum and Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum is expected to trade between 20600 - 21000, and aluminum alloy between 20200 - 20600 [2]. - **Zinc**: The price is stronger overseas than in China, and social inventories are increasing. It is expected to trade between 21800 - 22800 [2]. - **Tin**: Supply is tight, and it is in high - level oscillation between 265000 - 285000 [2]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel is in a weak oscillation between 120000 - 125000, and stainless steel is slightly weakening between 12800 - 13400 [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The short - term market lacks strong drivers. Wait and see on a single - side basis. Resistance levels are set for WTI, Brent, and SC. Consider expanding opportunities on the options side after volatility increases [2]. - **Urea**: Supply pressure may ease after the maintenance season, but demand restricts the upside. Consider selling out - of - the - money put options at high prices [2]. - **PX and PTA**: PX is expected to oscillate between 6600 - 6900 in September. PTA is expected to be tight in September but weak in the medium - term, oscillating between 4600 - 4800 [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Short - fiber, bottle - chip, ethanol, etc. each have their own supply - demand situations and corresponding trading suggestions [2]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Production has declined, supporting its strong performance. Observe if the main contract can stay above 9500 [2]. - **Sugar**: Overseas supply is expected to be ample. Short - sell in the short - term and watch the 5600 resistance level [2]. - **Cotton**: Old - crop inventories are low before new - cotton is widely available. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]. Special and New Energy - **Glass and Rubber**: Observe the sustainability of spot sales. Rubber trading sentiment has weakened, and prices have slightly declined [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Spot prices have slightly increased, and it is in a strong oscillation between 8000 - 9500 [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro - environment is favorable, and it is in a tight - balance in the peak season. It is expected to trade between 70,000 - 75,000 [2].
贵州毕节:破解“土地癌症”的“黄金果”
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-09-18 03:59
贵州毕节:破解"土地癌症"的"黄金果" 图为村民把采收的成熟刺梨装袋。罗大富 摄 图为村民正在搬运堆放刺梨。罗大富 摄 图为村民正在搬运堆放刺梨。罗大富 摄 图为贵州省毕节市高新区一家刺梨加工企业里,工人正在将刺梨卸载。罗大富 摄 来源:中国新闻网 图为村民正在采收成熟的刺梨。罗大富 摄 图为村民正在采收成熟的刺梨。罗大富 摄 编辑:徐世明 广告等商务合作,请点击这里 本文为转载内容,授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有,未经书面授权,任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview"),看更多精彩财经资讯。 ...
砥砺奋进七十载 天山南北谱华章丨从果园到景区 吐鲁番葡萄串起“甜蜜产业链”
Yang Guang Wang· 2025-09-18 00:53
Core Insights - Xinjiang Turpan is a significant grape production area in China, actively promoting industrial upgrades to develop a composite industry that includes processing and cultural tourism, injecting strong momentum into rural revitalization [1][2] - The local government is enhancing the infrastructure of the Frog Lane area, aiming to create a pedestrian street that integrates dining, accommodation, transportation, tourism, shopping, and entertainment by March 2024 [1] - The average income in the Grape Valley is projected to reach 25,318 yuan in 2024, up from 18,900 yuan in 2022, indicating continuous improvement in local economic conditions [2] Industry Developments - The local agricultural industry is focusing on integrating characteristic advantages to enhance agricultural efficiency and increase farmers' income [2] - The rise of online platforms for local farmers, such as live streaming, has enabled them to market their unique agricultural products nationwide, significantly boosting sales [1] - The revitalization of the Frog Lane has led to the emergence of various cultural and tourism-related businesses, benefiting local residents and promoting the integration of culture and tourism [1]
【杨凌】以“链”聚力 乘势而上
Shan Xi Ri Bao· 2025-09-17 22:37
Group 1: Company Overview - Shaanxi Yiyang Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd. is a leading enterprise in the modern seed industry chain within the Yangling Demonstration Zone, focusing on the production and distribution of wheat seeds to various provinces [2][4] - The company has established a complete industrial chain, producing 300,000 kg of wheat seed and 20,000 kg of corn parent seeds annually, while collaborating with 17 enterprises to promote standardized planting across seven demonstration bases [4][5] Group 2: Industry Development - The Yangling Demonstration Zone is enhancing its agricultural innovation by focusing on five key industrial chains, including modern seed industry, biomedicine, and smart agriculture, while also promoting collaboration among upstream and downstream enterprises [2][5] - A total of 1 billion yuan has been allocated to the Dryland Seed Industry Development Fund to support the establishment of a national innovation base for dryland agriculture [5] Group 3: Technological Advancements - Shaanxi Haisefu Biological Engineering Co., Ltd. is utilizing AI technology to enhance the production of natural vanillin, significantly improving efficiency in selecting effective strains [9][10] - The company achieved a revenue of nearly 400 million yuan in 2024, marking a 17% increase year-on-year, with over 70% of its products exported to Europe and the United States [10]
金龙鱼为何盯上“小众”蛋鸡赛道?公司回应
Xin Jing Bao· 2025-09-17 15:01
Core Viewpoint - The company, Jinlongyu, is expanding into the egg-laying hen business due to the low market concentration in the industry, leveraging its existing resources and sales channels to provide high-quality egg products [2] Company Summary - Jinlongyu has launched various egg products, including antibiotic-free eggs, selenium-enriched eggs, and eggs suitable for raw consumption [2] - The company has established a chicken farm in Chongqing, which began production this year, with a current stock of 750,000 hens [2] - The primary sales channels for the company's egg products include traditional supermarkets and local chain stores [2] Industry Summary - The egg-laying hen industry is characterized by low market concentration, presenting opportunities for companies like Jinlongyu to gain a competitive advantage [2] - The company aims to utilize its existing feed raw materials and downstream sales channels to enhance its market position in the egg industry [2]
中粮糖业(600737):行业景气度下行,业绩短期承压
Zhongyuan Securities· 2025-09-17 11:05
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company, indicating a potential increase of 5% to 15% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [19] Core Views - The company's performance aligns with forecasts, with a narrowing decline in earnings for Q2 2025. For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 11.767 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.32%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 445 million yuan, down 48.42% year-on-year [5][6] - The industry is experiencing a downturn, with increased production year-on-year. The international sugar prices have shown significant volatility, while domestic sugar prices have remained relatively stable due to a slowdown in import supply [7] - The company's main business revenue has declined, but breakthroughs have been achieved in specific product categories. The sugar business revenue was 10.594 billion yuan, accounting for 90.03% of total revenue, with a year-on-year decrease of 22.12% [7][8] Financial Performance Summary - For Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 6.730 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 5.80%, and a net profit of 268 million yuan, down 36.54% year-on-year [5] - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 8.49%, a decrease of 1.93 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 3.85%, down 2.01 percentage points year-on-year [10] - The company’s debt-to-asset ratio stood at 48.04% as of mid-2025, an increase of 6.56 percentage points compared to the end of 2024 [10] Future Earnings Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.298 billion yuan, 1.892 billion yuan, and 2.029 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.61 yuan, 0.88 yuan, and 0.95 yuan [10][11] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 27.67 for 2025, 18.98 for 2026, and 17.70 for 2027, indicating that the company is within a reasonable valuation range [10][11]
中原证券给予中粮糖业“增持"评级,2025年中报点评:行业景气度下行,业绩短期承压
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-17 09:57
每经头条(nbdtoutiao)——海拔4306米现"秦始皇密令",获官方"身份认定"!古文字学家刘钊:秦人 寻仙采药足迹确至青藏高原 (记者 曾健辉) 每经AI快讯,中原证券9月17日发布研报称,给予中粮糖业(600737.SH,最新价:16.85元)"增持"评 级。评级理由主要包括:1)公司业绩符合预告,2025Q2业绩同比降幅缩窄;2)行业景气度下行,产 量同比增加;3)公司主营业务收入下滑,细分品类领域取得突破;4)公司盈利水平下降,费用率相对 平稳;5)首次覆盖给与公司"增持"评级。风险提示:农产品价格波动、汇率波动、国际局势变化等风 险。 每日经济新闻 免责声明:本文内容与数据仅供参考,不构成投资建议,使用前请核实。据此操作,风险自担。 ...
国网庆阳供电公司:电力“及时雨”为庆阳辣椒产业丰收护航
近期,庆阳市遭遇持续阴雨天气,采摘后的辣椒面临霉变风险,当地辣椒加工企业生产压力陡增。国网庆阳供电公司 主动靠前服务,组织工作人员深入庆阳市宁县春荣镇谷和春农民专业合作社,以"保姆式"供电保障,为辣椒加工烘干保驾 护航,全力守护农户"致富果"。 走进谷和春农民专业合作社的生产车间,机器轰鸣不断,工人们身着统一工装,在辣椒酱生产线前有条不紊地分拣、 清洗、熬制,一派忙碌景象。作为宁县春荣镇辣椒产业发展的"领头雁",该合作社近年来通过"合作社+农户"模式,推动 辣椒种植从零散分布转向规模化连片种植,从粗放管理转向精细化田间管护,带动周边农户实现稳定增收,成为当地乡 村振兴的重要产业支撑。 然而,今年入秋后的连续阴雨天气,给辣椒产业带来不小挑战。新鲜辣椒含水量高,阴雨天气下晾晒困难,若不能及 时加工烘干,短短几天内就会腐烂变质,直接影响农户收益。为抢赶加工时效,合作社不得不集中启动辣椒酱生产线、 热风烘干设备等大功率用电设施,用电负荷较平日激增,不仅对供电稳定性提出更高要求,也增加了用电安全风险。 "越是产业急需,我们越要守好电力'生命线'。"国网庆阳供电公司得知合作社困境后,第一时间组建专项服务小组, 携带红外测 ...
政策预期不变 后期菜籽粕价格依然有上行波动基础
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-17 09:08
Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that there is an increased pricing power among enterprises, leading to a slight rise in the spot price of rapeseed meal [1] - As of September 16, the spot price of ordinary rapeseed meal in coastal areas ranges from 2590 to 2700 CNY/ton, reflecting an increase of 20 to 30 CNY/ton compared to the previous trading day and an increase of 0 to 20 CNY/ton compared to the same period last week [1] - On September 17, the futures market shows the main contract for rapeseed meal closing at 2460.00 CNY/ton, with a decline of 2.26%, and a trading volume of 394,731 contracts [2] Group 2 - The inventory of rapeseed meal is high, but there is still pressure on circulation; however, low rapeseed inventory and fewer distant ship purchases provide a basis for potential upward fluctuations in the future [4] - On September 17, the number of rapeseed meal futures warehouse receipts was 10,119, a decrease of 110 from the previous trading day [3] - Canadian canola oil prices remained stable, with October shipment at 1080 USD/ton and December shipment at 1060 USD/ton [3]
农产品加工板块9月17日跌0.58%,*ST中基领跌,主力资金净流出7157.46万元
Core Viewpoint - The agricultural processing sector experienced a decline of 0.58% on September 17, with *ST Zhongji leading the drop, while the overall market indices showed positive movements [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3876.34, up by 0.37% [1]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13215.46, up by 1.16% [1]. Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Morning Light Bio (300138) closed at 13.09, with an increase of 0.54% and a trading volume of 59,700 shares, totaling a transaction value of 78.23 million yuan [1]. - Baolingbao (002286) closed at 10.28, up by 0.49%, with a trading volume of 71,000 shares and a transaction value of 72.97 million yuan [1]. - COFCO Sugar (600737) closed at 16.85, up by 0.36%, with a trading volume of 336,400 shares and a transaction value of 566 million yuan [1]. - Other notable stocks include Jin Jian Rice Industry (600127) down by 0.29% and Golden Dragon Fish (300999) down by 0.33% [1]. Group 3: Fund Flow Analysis - The agricultural processing sector saw a net outflow of 71.57 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 10.00 million yuan [3]. - Speculative funds recorded a net inflow of 81.58 million yuan [3].