Core Insights - Hainan Free Trade Port has successfully implemented "zero tariff" policies, with a total import value of 750 million yuan in the first month since its closure on December 18, 2025 [2] - The duty-free shopping amount reached 4.86 billion yuan, reflecting a significant growth in consumer enthusiasm and market vitality [5] Group 1: Customs and Trade Efficiency - The "zero tariff" policy and the expedited clearance model have optimized both the efficiency and cost of imports, significantly supporting the industrial upgrade of the free trade port [2][3] - The "expedited clearance" policy has streamlined the import declaration process from 105 items to 33, greatly enhancing customs clearance efficiency [3] - In the first month, 47,000 tons of goods were imported under the expedited clearance model, showcasing the effectiveness of the new customs procedures [3] Group 2: Business Growth and Foreign Trade - A total of 5,132 new foreign trade enterprises have registered in Hainan within the first month, indicating a strong attraction for businesses to establish operations in the region [4] - The average approval time for enterprise registration has been reduced by nearly 60%, facilitating a smoother process for businesses [4] - The number of inbound and outbound passengers at Hainan's air ports reached 311,000, marking a 48.8% increase year-on-year, further demonstrating the region's growing appeal [4] Group 3: Duty-Free Market Performance - The duty-free shopping market reported a total of 4.86 billion yuan in sales, a 46.8% increase compared to the previous year, with 745,000 shoppers participating [5] - The number of items purchased in the duty-free market reached 3.494 million, reflecting a 14.6% increase, indicating robust consumer demand [5] - The customs has implemented a smart regulatory system that enhances efficiency from product entry to passenger pickup, ensuring a smooth operation of the duty-free market [6]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union is considering imposing tariffs on $930 billion worth of goods imported from the U.S. as a countermeasure to U.S. tariff threats, which has led to a decline in global risk assets [1][3]. Group 1: EU's Response to U.S. Tariff Threats - EU member states are discussing the possibility of imposing tariffs or restricting U.S. companies' access to the EU market in response to U.S. tariffs [3]. - The EU's proposed tariff list was initially drafted last year but was postponed to avoid a full-blown trade war, with the suspension set to expire on February 6 [3]. - European leaders are planning a special summit to address the U.S. tariff threats and to discuss collective responses [3][4]. Group 2: Collective Statement from European Countries - Eight European countries issued a joint statement condemning the U.S. tariff threats, emphasizing the need for unity and coordination in response [4][5]. - The statement reaffirms support for Denmark and Greenland, asserting a commitment to dialogue based on principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity [5]. Group 3: U.S. Justification for Tariffs - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin defended the tariffs as a geopolitical decision, claiming that U.S. economic strength is necessary to prevent conflict [6]. - Mnuchin stated that the U.S. must control Greenland, suggesting that European leaders will eventually accept this notion for the benefit of all parties involved [6]. Group 4: Political Reactions in the U.S. - There is bipartisan opposition in the U.S. Congress against President Trump's strategy regarding Greenland, with some lawmakers labeling the idea of U.S. control over Greenland as disastrous [7].

Core Insights - In 2025, Zhejiang Yiwu's foreign trade imports and exports are projected to exceed 800 billion yuan, reaching 836.5 billion yuan, marking a historical high [1] - Imports are expected to reach 105.8 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 32.3%, crossing the 100 billion yuan milestone [1] Trade and Commerce - Yiwu International Trade City hosts nearly 80,000 business units, offering over 2.1 million types of products, and engages in trade with 233 countries and regions globally [1] - The opening of Yiwu (Suxi) International Hub Port and the official launch of the Yiwu Global Digital Trade Center have expanded Yiwu's open channels and accelerated the cultivation of a digital trade ecosystem [1] E-commerce Growth - In 2025, the number of cross-border e-commerce import orders in Yiwu is expected to surpass 10 million, setting a new historical record [1]

当地时间18日，丹麦、芬兰、法国、德国、荷兰、挪威、瑞典和英国共同签署联合声明。声明指出，美国威胁加征关税破坏跨大西洋关系，并有可能导致危 险的恶性循环。各国将继续以团结协调的方式应对，决心捍卫主权。声明表示，"作为北约成员国，我们致力于加强北极安全，这是跨大西洋的共同利益"。 ○欧盟多国考虑对930亿欧元输欧美国商品加征关税 总台记者当地时间18日获悉，欧盟多国正考虑对价值930亿欧元的输欧美国商品加征关税，或限制美国企业进入欧盟市场，以反制美国总统特朗普为得到格 陵兰岛而对欧洲8国加征关税。 ○北约秘书长与美国总统通话 讨论格陵兰岛问题 当地时间18日，北约秘书长吕特在社交媒体发文表示，他当天与美国总统特朗普就格陵兰岛和北极的安全局势进行了沟通，并称北约将继续推进这项工作。 伊朗称已查明骚乱幕后推手 ○伊朗总统：袭击最高领袖等同"发动全面战争" 伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬18日晚在社交媒体上发文说，袭击伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊"无异于对伊朗人民发动全面战争"。 经济观察网 据央视新闻客户端消息，○欧洲多国发表联合声明：美威胁加征关税破坏跨大西洋关系 ○欧盟多国考虑对930亿欧元输欧美国商品加征关税 ○伊朗总统：袭击最 ...

Core Insights - China's total import and export value reached 45.47 trillion yuan in 2025, marking a historical high and maintaining its position as the world's largest goods trading nation, with a growth rate of 3.8% for the ninth consecutive year since joining the WTO [1] Group 1: Market Diversification - The number of countries and regions trading with China reached 249 in 2025, with trade growth reported with over 190 countries and regions [2] - The number of countries with trade volumes exceeding one trillion, one hundred billion, and ten billion yuan increased by 2, 6, and 10 respectively compared to 2024 [2] - China's foreign trade is breaking away from reliance on a single market, leading to a more balanced development [2] Group 2: Product Diversification - The quality and efficiency of exports are improving, with more "Made in China" products innovatively meeting international market demands [2] - Exports of AI-related products, such as intelligent robots, have seen growth rates exceeding 60% [2] - Chinese products are not only enriching global consumer life but also deeply embedding in global supply chains, supporting international industrial cooperation [2] Group 3: Import Diversification - China has become the main export destination for 79 countries and regions, an increase of 3 compared to 2024 [3] - In 2025, China's imports reached 18.48 trillion yuan, maintaining a global import share of around 10% [3] - A series of stable foreign trade policies have helped companies secure orders and expand markets, providing solid support for trade diversification [3] Group 4: Logistics and Infrastructure - New logistics channels are extending to more markets, facilitating trade diversification [3] - The volume of China-Africa shipping from Yantai Port increased by 49% in 2025, setting a historical record [3] - The launch of the world's first China-Europe Arctic container fast shipping route in Ningbo-Zhoushan Port offers quicker and low-carbon logistics options for high-end manufacturing and cross-border e-commerce [3] Group 5: Resilience Against External Risks - The diversification of trade partners is a key factor in enhancing the resilience of China's foreign trade [4] - Despite external uncertainties and pressures on foreign trade, China's innovative trade development is becoming more robust, promising new opportunities for global economic development [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decision by the U.S. to impose tariffs on goods from several European countries, including France and Germany, has escalated tensions between the U.S. and Europe, highlighting underlying geopolitical and economic frictions [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Decision - The U.S. plans to impose tariffs starting next month on imports from multiple European nations, interpreted as a pressure tactic aimed at influencing Europe's stance on the Greenland issue [1]. - This tariff decision is seen as part of a broader strategy by the U.S. to exert economic pressure on its allies [1]. Group 2: European Response - French President Macron's response on January 18 indicates a strong opposition to the U.S. tariffs, suggesting the potential use of EU-level tools for retaliation [3]. - Macron's invocation of the EU's anti-coercion mechanism signals a readiness to initiate formal investigations and countermeasures against the U.S. [3][5]. - The response reflects a growing sentiment of distrust towards the U.S. within Europe, as well as a desire for a more independent European stance in international relations [3]. Group 3: EU Anti-Coercion Tool - The anti-coercion tool, established by the EU in 2023, provides a legal framework for member states to respond to economic coercion from third countries, including measures like tariffs and investment restrictions [5]. - This tool is a direct response to previous instances of U.S. tariffs imposed on the EU, indicating a shift in Europe's approach to economic pressures from the U.S. [5]. Group 4: Long-term Implications - The current tariff dispute reveals deepening rifts in transatlantic relations, with long-standing differences in trade and industrial policies coming to the forefront [5]. - The friction in economic relations is eroding mutual trust, prompting discussions within Europe about reducing dependency on the U.S. [5]. - The outcome of this dispute will significantly influence the future dynamics of U.S.-EU relations, moving from a "dominant-following" model to one characterized by "competition-balance" [7].

Core Insights - Hainan Free Trade Port has been operational for one month, with significant progress in policy implementation and enhanced openness [1][2] Group 1: Customs and Trade Operations - Customs has simplified the declaration process for eligible imported goods, reducing the number of declaration items from 105 to 33, leading to improved clearance efficiency [1] - The value of imported "zero tariff" goods reached 750 million, primarily including raw oil, mineral products, medical devices, and production equipment for enterprises [1] - The number of beneficiaries of these policies has increased to over 10,000 companies [1] Group 2: Export and Domestic Sales - The declaration items for outbound goods have been reduced by over 60%, facilitating smooth and orderly outbound traffic [1] - The value of domestic sales reached 85.867 million, with tax reductions exceeding 3 million [1] Group 3: Economic Growth and Business Development - The number of inbound and outbound personnel at Hainan's airport reached 311,000, a year-on-year increase of 48.8% [2] - Duty-free shopping revenue amounted to 4.86 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 46.8% [2] - Since the closure, new business scenarios such as self-produced goods and value-added processing have emerged, with industries like petrochemical materials and medical devices further enhancing their supply chains [2] - A total of 5,132 new foreign trade registered enterprises have been established, equivalent to the total for a quarter in 2024 [2]

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2026 年 1 月 18 日 汇率强则港股强 ——宏观与大类资产周报 频率：每周 国内方面，12 月出口增速录得 6.6%，显著好于我们此前的预期，"一带一路" 出口红利延续，我们预计下半年到明年或为出口转弱的窗口期，届时，决策层 大概率出台大规模扩大内需特别是地产相关政策。 海外方面，1）鲍威尔被传讯令美联储独立性受到质疑，但暂不影响降息节 奏，1 月大概率不降息。2）美国 12 月 CPI 与核心 CPI 低于预期，但伊朗问题 对油价形成支撑。 资产方面，1）央行对汇率的态度有所转变，中间价最快本月破 7。央行选择 "结构性降息"而非全面降息，此外表态不会为了出口压制汇率，表明央行对汇 率升值容忍度提升。2）11 月下旬离岸人民币加速升值令恒生止跌，若美元再 度转弱或离岸人民币进一步升值，港股上行趋势将被彻底打开。 货币流动性跟踪（1 月 12 日——1 月 16 日） 央行维持净投放，但资金价格整体上行 ❑ 流动性复盘： 公开市场操作方面，1 月 12 日—1 月 16 日期间，7 天逆回购投放 9515 亿元， 到期 1387 亿元，净投放 8128 亿元；央行进行 ...

Core Insights - In 2025, China's foreign trade has diversified significantly, with the number of countries and regions trading with China reaching 249 [1][3] - China continues to expand equal, open, and cooperative global partnerships, deeply integrating into the global trade development pattern [1] Trade Partners Overview - In 2025, the number of countries and regions with trade exceeding 1 trillion yuan reached 14, an increase of 2 from 2024 [4] - The number of countries and regions with trade exceeding 100 billion yuan reached 137, an increase of 10 from 2024 [4] - At least 60% of countries and regions across all five continents experienced growth in imports and exports with China [6] Trade Concentration - The top ten trade partners of China accounted for 47.7% of China's total foreign trade value in 2025, a decrease of 2 percentage points from 2024, indicating a reduction in concentration [7] Trade Achievements and Cooperation - The China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 version was implemented, with trade between China and ASEAN exceeding 1 trillion yuan in 2025 [10] - Trade with Central Asian countries surpassed 100 billion yuan, with an increasing number of high-quality agricultural products entering the Chinese market [10] - Trade with African countries reached nearly 2.5 trillion yuan, with over 40% growth in exports related to foreign engineering cooperation [11] - China imports over 50% of its automobiles and cosmetics from Europe, while exports of pharmaceuticals and industrial robots to Europe maintained over 20% growth [12] - Cooperation with Latin American countries in manufacturing and agriculture has deepened, with both sectors showing double-digit growth [13] - Under the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), cooperation with Australia and New Zealand has strengthened, with imports of dairy products and seafood increasing by 37.2% and 18.6%, respectively [14]

此外，高质量共建"一带一路"合作不断走深走实，一批互联互通、装备制造、绿色矿产、现代农业等领 域大项目加快实施，有效带动扩大对中亚地区出口，助力中亚国家产业升级和经济振兴。 中新社北京1月18日电 (记者尹倩芸)中国商务部18日公布的数据显示，2025年，中国—中亚进出口总值 历史上首次突破1000亿美元大关，连续5年保持正增长。中国首次跃居中亚各国第一大贸易伙伴，中亚 占中国外贸的比重进一步上升。 据中国海关统计，2025年中国—中亚全年货物贸易进出口达1063亿美元，同比增长12%，增速较上年提 高6个百分点。 一方面，商品结构向新向优。2025年，中国对中亚出口712亿美元，同比增长11%，机电和高新技术产 品增长强劲，"新三样"(电动载人汽车、锂电池和太阳能电池)产品市场份额稳步扩大；自中亚进口351 亿美元，同比增长14%，化工、钢材、农产品等非资源类产品种类进一步丰富。 另一方面，新型业态扩容赋能。2025年，中国—中亚跨境电商进出口保持快速增长，仓储物流建设持续 推进，跨境支付合作全面铺开，中国—中亚贸易畅通合作平台在江苏南京正式挂牌运营，"丝路电商"成 为畅通贸易往来的高效桥梁。 商务部欧亚司 ...