2月22日，全球最大钴生产国刚果（金）宣布暂停钴产品出口四个月，旨在缓解市场供应过剩 与价格低迷。这一政策引发全球钴供应链震荡，截至2月28日，国内电解钴价已攀升至18.3万 元/吨，较近期低点涨幅超20%。市场供需格局面临短期重塑，但中长期钴价走势仍受需求增长 乏力与替代技术发展的双重制约。 一、刚果金出口禁令冲击全球钴供应链 供应端缺口显著，市场预期分化 刚果（金）财政赤字率达GDP的8.7%，出口收入压力可能迫使该国在三个月评估期内调整政 策。同时，印尼计划2025年新增1.5万吨钴产能，将部分对冲供应缺口。叠加动力电池领域磷 酸铁锂替代加速，钴市场长期需求增长仍存隐忧。 二、产业链分化下的企业应对策略 上游企业：多元化布局缓解供应风险 中国企业在刚果（金）的核心项目暂未受直接影响。洛阳钼业表示其TFM和KFM矿区维持正常 生产，同时印尼镍钴湿法项目可提供替代资源；中伟股份通过参股腾远钴业、提前储备钴金 属，并利用富氧侧吹工艺提升自供比例，有效分散供应链风险。2023年，中伟股份四氧化三钴 出货量超3万吨，全球市占率26%，技术优势助力其稳固市场地位。 下游企业：成本压力倒逼采购策略调整 电池制造商通过 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the cobalt industry, indicating an "Overweight" rating, suggesting that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [3][11]. Core Insights - The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has temporarily suspended cobalt exports for four months due to oversupply, which is expected to lead to a rebound in cobalt prices [2][4]. - The DRC is the largest supplier of cobalt globally, accounting for approximately 76% of the world's cobalt supply. The export restrictions could impact the global supply by approximately 68,000 tons [4][5]. - Demand for cobalt is projected to grow steadily, with an expected increase of 4.3% in 2025, reaching 214,000 tons, driven by applications in power batteries and emerging sectors like drones and robotics [4][5]. - Cobalt prices have significantly decreased from a peak of 580,000 CNY/ton in 2022 to around 159,000 CNY/ton, but have recently started to recover, reaching 177,000 CNY/ton [4][5]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The DRC's export restrictions are anticipated to alleviate the oversupply situation in the cobalt market, which has seen prices decline over the past few years [4][5]. - The global refined cobalt supply is projected to reach 305,900 tons by 2025, with a supply-demand balance indicating a surplus of 91,800 tons after accounting for the DRC's export restrictions [6]. Company Valuations - Key companies in the cobalt sector, such as Huayou Cobalt, Luoyang Molybdenum, and others, are highlighted for their profit elasticity in response to the expected price recovery [4][7]. - The report provides a valuation table for major cobalt companies, indicating their earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the upcoming years [7].