Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Insights - The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) has invested billions in MP Materials to accelerate the independence of U.S. rare earth magnets, but global production remains highly concentrated in China in the short term [9][14][45] - Nickel prices have decreased due to a significant drop in demand and production halts in Indonesia, which may impact local mining operations [12][20][23] - Cobalt prices have risen due to supply tightening from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which accounts for approximately 75% of global electric vehicle battery supply [13][31] - Lithium carbonate prices have increased, but future price movements will depend on downstream demand recovery [7][38][44] - Antimony prices have remained stable, with domestic supply still tight, and production expected to decline in the coming months [32][36] Summary by Sections Rare Earth Industry - MP Materials announced a partnership with the DoD to enhance domestic production capabilities, with a new magnet manufacturing facility expected to be operational by 2028 [45][46] - The DoD has committed to a minimum price of $110 per kilogram for NdPr products, ensuring stable cash flow for MP Materials [46][47] Nickel Industry - As of July 11, LME nickel spot price was $14,955 per ton, down 1.09% from July 4, with total LME nickel inventory increasing by 1.83% [20] - Domestic NPI smelting costs remain under pressure, affecting the acceptance of high-priced raw materials [20][23] Cobalt Industry - As of July 11, cobalt prices have shown mixed trends, with electrolytic cobalt at 249,300 yuan per ton, down 0.99%, while cobalt oxide increased by 1.54% [24][31] - The extension of a temporary export ban by the Congolese government is expected to tighten global cobalt supply [31] Lithium Industry - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate reached 63,800 yuan per ton, up 2.36% as of July 11 [7][38] - Market sentiment is cautious, with inventory levels remaining high, limiting upward price movement [38][44] Antimony Industry - Domestic antimony ingot prices have stabilized, with supply constraints expected to support future pricing [32][36]

证券代码：300618 证券简称：寒锐钴业 公告编号：2025-034 南京寒锐钴业股份有限公司 关于完成工商变更登记的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 公司于 2025 年 4 月 17 日、2025 年 5 月 8 日召开第五届董事会第十一次会议和 2024 年年度股东大会，审议通过了《关于变更注册资本及修订<公司章程>的议案》。公司已 完成通过集中竞价方式累计回购的 1,292,148 股回购股份的注销手续，注销完成后，公 司总股本由 309,617,139 股减少至 308,324,991 股，公司注册资本由人民币 309,617,139 元减少至人民币 308,324,991 元。公司将《公司章程》中有关注册资本的内容进行了修 改。具体内容详见公司于 2025 年 4 月 18 日、2025 年 5 月 8 日在巨潮资讯网披露的《第 五届董事会第十一次会议决议公告》《2024 年年度股东大会决议公告》。 近日，公司工商登记变更手续已办理完毕，并取得了南京市市场监督管理局换发 的《营业执照》，具体情况如下： 一、本次变更登记情况 | ...

证券代码：300618 证券简称：寒锐钴业 公告编号：2025-032 南京寒锐钴业股份有限公司 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 南京寒锐钴业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 4 月 17 日召开 第五届董事会第十一次会议，会议以 5 票同意，0 票反对，0 票弃权审议通过《关 于公司及子公司 2025 年度融资及担保额度的议案》，并经 2024 年年度股东大会 审 议 通 过 。 具 体 内 容 详 见 公 司 于 2025 年 4 月 18 日在巨潮资讯网 （http://www.cninfo.com.cn/）披露的《关于公司及子公司 2025 年度融资及担保额 度的公告》（公告编号：2025-010）。 一、担保情况概述 因公司业务发展需要，南京寒锐钴业（香港）有限公司（以下简称"香港寒 锐"）向中国工商银行股份有限公司南京玄武支行（以下简称"工商银行南京玄武 支行"）申请人民币 1 亿元授信，由公司为上述授信提供连带责任担保，担保额 度为人民币 1 亿元，担保期限为主合同确定的债权到期或提前到期之次日起三年。 上述融资涉 ...

证券代码：300618 证券简称：寒锐钴业 公告编号：2025-033 南京寒锐钴业股份有限公司 关于控股股东部分股份解除质押及质押延期购回的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确和完整，没有 虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 注：上述数据如有误差，均为四舍五入的结果。 二、股东股份质押延期购回的基本情况 | | 是否为 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 控股股 | | | 占公 | | 是否 | | | | | | | | | | 股东 | 东或第 | 本次质押 | 占其所 | 司总 | 是否为 | 为补 | 质押起 | | 原质押 | | 延期后 | | | 质押 | | | 一大股 | 延期数量 | 持股份 | | | | | | | | 质押到 | | 质权人 | | | 名称 | 东及其 | （股） | 比例 | 股本 | 限售股 | 充质 | 始日 | | 到期日 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the "anti-involution" policy is guiding a short-term strength in energy metals, while gold is under pressure due to rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar [1]. - The report suggests that despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact due to central bank purchases and fiscal concerns [1]. - Industrial metals are experiencing mixed trends, with copper facing supply disruptions and aluminum entering a potential inventory accumulation phase [1]. Summary by Sections Weekly Data Tracking - The non-ferrous metals sector showed mixed performance this week, with varying price movements across different metals [10]. - The report notes that the overall non-ferrous metals index increased by 1.0%, with energy metals up by 1.0% and industrial metals up by 1.5% [16]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Global copper inventory increased slightly to 518,000 tons, with supply disruptions from MMG and Hudbay Minerals affecting logistics [1]. The copper price has seen fluctuations due to macroeconomic factors and demand-side pressures [1]. - **Aluminum**: The report indicates a potential inventory accumulation cycle, with production recovering in some regions while demand remains subdued [1]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: The report notes a continued strength in lithium prices, driven by supply constraints and robust demand from electric vehicle sales [1]. The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose to 64,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.5% increase [26]. - **Metal Silicon**: The report discusses a short-term upward trend in silicon prices due to production cuts and recovery expectations in polysilicon plants [1]. Key Stocks - The report recommends several stocks for investment, including Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Luoyang Molybdenum, all rated as "Buy" [5]. Company Announcements - Zijin Mining announced an asset acquisition of the RG gold mine project, with a valuation of 1.2 billion yuan [34]. - Ganfeng Lithium completed the acquisition of Mali Lithium, enhancing its lithium resource integration strategy [34]. Price and Inventory Changes - The report provides detailed price movements for various metals, indicating that gold prices increased by 4.2% over the week, while copper prices saw a slight decline [21][23]. Market Trends - The report emphasizes the ongoing supply-demand dynamics in the non-ferrous metals market, with particular attention to the impact of macroeconomic indicators on metal prices [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4][106]. Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are experiencing fluctuations due to the interplay of the 232 investigation and interest rate cut expectations, with recent price changes showing a mixed trend [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of low inventory levels in supporting copper prices, while also noting the potential impact of the 232 copper import investigation and upcoming interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve [5]. - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, and Western Mining for investment opportunities [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report provides insights into macroeconomic indicators, including U.S. employment data, which may influence market conditions [9]. - The non-ferrous metals sector's performance is analyzed, with the sector underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [11]. 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - Recent price movements show LME copper up by 0.25%, while SHFE copper is down by 0.24% [25]. - Inventory levels for copper have increased, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [25]. 2.2 Aluminum - LME aluminum prices increased by 0.41%, with inventory levels also rising [35]. - The report notes a decrease in aluminum smelting profits, attributed to rising costs [35]. 2.3 Lead and Zinc - Lead prices have seen a slight increase, while zinc prices have decreased [48]. - Inventory levels for both metals are discussed, highlighting market supply conditions [48]. 2.4 Tin and Nickel - Tin prices have decreased slightly, while nickel prices have shown an upward trend [62]. - The report discusses profitability metrics for nickel producers in both domestic and international markets [62]. 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices have shown a slight rebound, with specific price changes noted for lithium carbonate and lithium spodumene [74]. - The report indicates that supply-side adjustments are anticipated, which may affect future pricing [74]. 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices have increased domestically due to export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which may create supply constraints [86]. - The report highlights the profitability of domestic cobalt refining operations [86].

Core Viewpoint - The extension of the cobalt export ban by the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is expected to impact cobalt prices positively, as it aims to address the oversupply in the market and may lead to a supply shortage, thus increasing prices [1][2][4]. Cobalt Market Dynamics - Cobalt is a critical metal for energy transition, widely used in battery manufacturing and alloys, with DRC being the main global supplier [2]. - Prior to the export ban, cobalt prices had dropped significantly, with a reported price of $11.26 per pound in 2024, down 25.48% year-on-year [2]. - Following the initial export ban in February, cobalt prices peaked at 250,000 yuan/ton but later fell to 230,000 yuan/ton due to high historical inventory levels and unclear future policies [2]. Price Movements - After the announcement of the extended export ban, cobalt prices showed a notable increase, with "Longjiang 1 cobalt" rising by 22,000 yuan/ton, reaching a price range of 244,000 to 268,000 yuan/ton [3]. Impact on Companies - Companies primarily dealing with cobalt, such as Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd., Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co., Ltd., and Ganzhou Tengyuan Cobalt Industry New Materials Co., Ltd., saw their stock prices rise significantly following the ban announcement [4]. - The DRC's export ban is expected to exacerbate raw material shortages in major consuming countries like China, with potential supply reductions exceeding 100,000 metal tons [4][5]. Company Responses - Companies like Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. reported a significant increase in cobalt production and sales for 2024, with production up 105.61% to 114,200 tons and sales up 266.23% to 108,900 tons [6]. - Luoyang Molybdenum operates two major mines in DRC, benefiting directly from the price rebound due to the export ban [7]. - Tengyuan Cobalt Industry indicated that they have sufficient safety stock to mitigate the impact of the export ban on their operations, and they maintain good relationships with suppliers to ensure raw material availability [8].

Core Viewpoint - Cobalt prices are experiencing significant volatility, with a recent drop of 6,000 yuan to 250,000 yuan per ton, influenced by extended export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and high inventory pressures [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The DRC, which accounts for 76% of global cobalt production, has extended its export ban, leading to short-term supply constraints and price fluctuations in the cobalt market [3][4]. - The global cobalt market is expected to shift from a surplus of 50,000 tons in 2025 to a shortage of 78,000 tons due to the DRC's export restrictions [4]. - Cobalt is primarily a byproduct of copper mining, and the DRC's policies may prompt a reevaluation of its business environment, potentially increasing Indonesia's market share [3][4]. Group 2: Production and Supply Chain - According to USGS data, global cobalt production is projected to reach 290,000 tons in 2024, with the DRC producing 220,000 tons, a 25% increase year-on-year [4]. - Chinese imports of cobalt intermediate products from the DRC have slightly decreased, but supply risks are anticipated to rise in the latter half of the year due to the DRC's export limitations [6]. - The current price of cobalt has reached the cost line for domestic cobalt salt manufacturers, and a drop below 240,000 yuan per ton could trigger production cuts among high-cost mining companies [6][7]. Group 3: Industry Performance - The profitability within the cobalt supply chain is showing divergence, with upstream producers holding back on sales while downstream sectors remain cautious [5][7]. - Battery manufacturers are increasingly reluctant to absorb rising costs, leading to stable prices in the lithium cobalt oxide market despite stronger cost support [7]. - Companies like Huaneng Cobalt and Tianyuan Cobalt have reported fluctuating profits, with Huaneng Cobalt's net profit in Q1 2025 increasing by 194% year-on-year, while Tianyuan Cobalt's profit has shown a decline in previous years [7][8].

Group 1 - The extension of the cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has led to significant price volatility, with cobalt prices experiencing a sharp drop of 6,000 yuan to 250,000 yuan per ton on June 24 [1][2] - The DRC's export ban, initially imposed for four months on February 24, has now been extended to seven months, causing a consensus in the industry that this will only result in temporary supply constraints [1][2] - The DRC accounts for 76% of global cobalt production, with a projected output of 220,000 tons in 2024, reflecting a 25% year-on-year increase [2][3] Group 2 - The market is currently experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with high inventory levels leading to price corrections, as cobalt prices fell to 230,000 yuan per ton due to domestic producers offloading stock [2][4] - The extension of the export ban is expected to create upward pressure on cobalt prices, potentially leading to a supply shortage in the cobalt industry, with predictions of a shift from a surplus of 50,000 tons to a shortage of 78,000 tons by 2025 [3][4] - The upstream sector is showing reluctance to sell, while the downstream sector remains cautious, with cobalt hydroxide imports from the DRC only slightly declining by 6.8% [4][5] Group 3 - The lithium cobalt oxide market is currently stable, with companies adopting a "just-in-time" purchasing strategy due to insufficient demand, despite rising costs [6] - The shift towards lithium iron phosphate batteries is accelerating, with projections indicating that they will account for 72% of installed capacity by 2024, which may limit cobalt demand growth [6] - Companies like Huanray Cobalt and Huayou Cobalt have shown mixed financial performance, with Huanray Cobalt's net profit declining significantly in recent years, while Huayou Cobalt reported a substantial increase in net profit in early 2025 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The temporary ban on cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has been extended for an additional three months, now lasting a total of seven months, in response to an oversupply in the global cobalt market [1][7]. Industry Impact - The extension of the cobalt export ban has led to a rise in the energy metals sector, with companies like Tengyuan Cobalt (301219.SZ) seeing a stock price increase of 15.42%, and other firms such as Hanrui Cobalt (300618.SZ) and Huayou Cobalt (603799.SH) also experiencing significant gains [1]. - Cobalt prices have increased, with the average price of electrolytic cobalt reported at 244,000 yuan/ton, up by 8,500 yuan from the previous working day [1]. Company Responses - Major Chinese cobalt producers, including Luoyang Molybdenum and Huayou Cobalt, have indicated that their operations in the DRC are not significantly impacted by the export ban extension. Luoyang Molybdenum reported a cobalt production of 114,200 tons last year, a 106% increase year-on-year, while Huayou Cobalt noted that its cobalt capacity is primarily based in Indonesia, minimizing the impact of the DRC ban [2][4]. - Analysts suggest that domestic cobalt refining companies may face pressure due to increased uncertainty in cobalt raw material supply, although they currently have sufficient inventory to continue production [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The DRC is the largest cobalt producer globally, accounting for 76% of the world's cobalt production last year [5]. - Prior to the ban, cobalt prices had already dropped nearly 70% from their peak in Q1 2022, indicating a significant oversupply in the market [6]. - The ban's extension is expected to affect 128,000 tons of cobalt exports from the DRC this year, potentially shifting the global cobalt market from oversupply to a shortage by 2025, which could drive prices up [8]. Future Outlook - Industry experts have mixed views on whether the DRC's export ban will effectively alter the global cobalt supply-demand balance. Some predict short-term price increases driven by market sentiment, while others caution that without sufficient demand, the oversupply may persist [8][9]. - The DRC's strategy may include measures to enhance its pricing power in the cobalt market, although the implications of such strategies on the overall market dynamics remain uncertain [9].