1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of synthetic rubber will follow crude oil and remain in a high - level oscillation. In the medium term, due to the high supply and the supply growth rate exceeding the demand growth rate, there is still significant fundamental pressure. The current main contradiction in the market may be the geopolitical conflict from a macro perspective [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情研判 - **Futures - end static valuation**: The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,400 - 12,000 yuan/ton. The dynamic valuation is expected to oscillate. The upper valuation of the futures price is around 12,000 - 12,100 yuan/ton, and when the main BR2507 contract has a premium of about 100 yuan/ton over the market price in Shandong, there is a risk - free arbitrage opportunity. The theoretical bottom valuation range is 11,400 yuan/ton [4]. - **Butadiene fundamentals**: The price of Asian butadiene remains stable, and the domestic butadiene market has seen improved short - term transactions, with prices oscillating around 9,500 yuan/ton. The industry's operating rate is still high year - on - year and has increased month - on - month. Short - term imports are neutral. Demand from butadiene rubber remains neutral, and there is also rigid demand from styrene - butadiene rubber, ABS, and SBS. Inventories of production enterprises and ports have increased slightly. Overall, butadiene is expected to oscillate with support [4]. - **Butadiene rubber fundamentals**: The processing profit of butadiene rubber has gradually returned above the break - even line, and the supply - side operating rate is expected to remain high year - on - year and increase month - on - month. The apparent demand this week remains high, but the substitution demand is expected to decline. Inventories have been at a high level year - on - year. The current fundamentals have a weak driving force, and spot prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [4]. - **Butadiene rubber futures**: In the short term, the escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has pushed up international energy prices, and synthetic rubber, as a crude oil chemical product, may oscillate at a high level following oil products. In the medium term, the fundamentals are under pressure. Overall, the market is mainly affected by the geopolitical conflict, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term and face pressure after returning to fundamentals in the medium term [4]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral positions are short - term bullish; the spread between NR - BR is expected to narrow [4] 3.2丁二烯基本面 - **Pricing stage**: Butadiene is currently in the supply - demand pricing stage and has a low correlation with the raw material end [7]. - **Capacity expansion**: To support the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene rubber, and butadiene rubber, butadiene capacity has been continuously expanding, with the speed and amplitude slightly faster than those of downstream industries at certain stages [9]. - **New capacity in 2024 and 2025**: In 2024, a total of 380,000 tons of new capacity were put into operation, and in 2025, 860,000 tons are expected to be added, mainly through the C4 extraction process [11]. - **Supply - side operating rate**: The overall operating rate of butadiene is high, with some fluctuations due to enterprise maintenance. The total weekly production capacity is 1.4167 million tons, and the operating rate is 69.95%, with a weekly output of 991,000 tons [15]. - **Net imports**: Short - term imports are neutral, with data showing monthly import and export volume changes [16]. - **Demand - side capacity**: The capacity of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber is expanding, with new projects being put into operation in multiple regions. For example, in 2024 - 2026, new capacity of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber will be added in Zhejiang, Shandong, and other places [19]. - **Demand - side operating and maintenance**: The operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber vary among enterprises, with some in normal operation, some under reduced load, and some under maintenance [24]. - **ABS and SBS capacity**: The capacity of ABS and SBS has also been increasing. In 2024, the ABS capacity increased by 2.06 million tons, and in 2025, it is expected to increase by 1.5 million tons. For SBS, the capacity increased by 160,000 tons in 2024 and is expected to increase by 250,000 tons in 2025 [28]. - **ABS and SBS fundamentals**: The operating rate, net profit, inventory, and capacity utilization of ABS and SBS show certain trends and fluctuations [29][30]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of butadiene production enterprises and ports have increased slightly, and the total inventory shows an upward trend [32][33][34] 3.3合成橡胶基本面 - **Butadiene rubber supply - production**: The weekly production of high - cis butadiene rubber shows certain trends and fluctuations, and the operating rate of enterprises also varies [39]. - **Butadiene rubber supply - cost and profit**: The theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin of butadiene rubber show different trends over time [41][42][43]. - **Butadiene rubber supply - import and export**: The monthly import and export volumes of butadiene rubber show certain trends [44][47]. - **Butadiene rubber supply - inventory**: The inventories of butadiene rubber enterprises, traders, and futures are at a relatively high level year - on - year [50][51]. - **Butadiene rubber demand - tires**: The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong Province and the operating rates of domestic semi - steel and all - steel tires show certain trends [54][55]

研究中心能化团队 2025/6/20 | | | 指标 | 5/20 | 6/12 | 6/17 | 6/18 | 6/19 | 日度变化 | 周度変化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 主力合约收盘价 | 12070 | 11035 | 11485 | 11740 | 11770 | 30 | 735 | | | | 主力合约持仓量 | 16991 | 21103 | 16181 | 16777 | 15134 | -1643 | -5969 | | | 居面 | 主力合约成交量 | 94802 | 121876 | 111310 | 104964 | 81102 | -23862 | -40774 | | | | 仓単数量 | 10290 | 12820 | 12290 | 12290 | 6630 | -5660 | -6190 | | | | 虚实比 | 8.26 | 8.23 | 6.58 | 6.83 | 11.41 | 5 | 3 | | | | 顺丁基差 | 330 | 515 | 115 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to recent geopolitical factors causing an upward trend in crude oil prices, the market's concern about the increase in production costs driving up the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber is gradually rising. Producers' inventory generally decreases, while traders' inventory generally increases. The supply price may remain firm under the influence of cost factors, but the downstream end shows obvious resistance to high prices, and it is expected that the production - sales pressure will be difficult to ease. [2] - This week, the capacity utilization rates of domestic tire enterprises showed mixed trends. Enterprises' production scheduling gradually returned to normal levels. Some enterprises moderately increased production to meet order demands, while a few enterprises suspended production due to power plant maintenance. In the short term, the capacity utilization rate is expected to remain basically stable. The production scheduling of all - steel tire enterprises is temporarily stable, and the resumption of production of semi - steel tire enterprises undergoing maintenance has a certain pulling effect on the overall capacity utilization rate. The r2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,400 - 11,900 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber was 11,770 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton; the position volume of the main contract was 15,134, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,643. The 7 - 8 spread of synthetic rubber was 140 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in warehouses was 800 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 4,370 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong and Shanghai was 11,750 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 11,800 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was 180 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 170 yuan/ton. [2] - Brent crude oil was 76.7 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.25 US dollars/barrel; naphtha CFR Japan was 633.13 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 7.5 US dollars/ton; Northeast Asian ethylene price was 820 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 10 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1,070 US dollars/ton, with no change. WTI crude oil was 75.14 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.3 US dollars/barrel; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,500 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 14.77 million tons/week, with no change; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 68.98%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.96 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 21,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 6,000 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 45.12%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.88 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 139,400 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 17,900 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 65.03%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.22 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 576 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 306 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 33,900 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons; the manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 27,650 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 650 tons; the trader's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 6,210 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 530 tons. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 77.98%, with a week - on - week increase of 4.12 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 61.24%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.23 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 11.82 million, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.26 million; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 54.15 million, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.24 million. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 41.74 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.13 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.28 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.44 days. [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of June 19, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 33,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 200 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 0.56%. [2] - As of June 19, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 71.54%, a week - on - week increase of 1.56 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.52 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.39%, a week - on - week increase of 2.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.45 percentage points. [2] - In May 2025, the sales volume of the heavy - truck market in China was about 83,000 (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 5% compared with April and a year - on - year increase of about 6% compared with 78,200 in the same period last year. From January to May this year, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy - truck market in China was about 435,500, a year - on - year increase of about 1%. [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Some traders placed orders for replenishment, but the lack of actual positive factors hindered sales. Production enterprise inventories decreased slightly, while trading enterprise inventories increased [2]. - The supply of raw material butadiene was relatively sufficient, weakening the cost support for butadiene rubber. Recently, many domestic butadiene rubber producers had maintenance and shutdowns [2]. - In terms of demand, the production schedules of previously overhauled enterprises gradually returned to normal levels. Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased month - on - month. In the short term, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises was expected to fluctuate slightly. The BR2508 contract was expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,400 - 11,900 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber was 11,740 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 255 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract was 16,777, with a month - on - month increase of 596 [2]. - The 7 - 8 spread of synthetic rubber was 120 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 40 yuan/ton. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber was 5,170 tons, unchanged from the previous period [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber was - 205 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 (Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong was 11,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The mainstream price of BR9000 (Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong and Shanghai was also 11,600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of BR9000 (Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong was 11,650 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil was at $76.45 per barrel, up $3.22. WTI crude oil was at $74.84 per barrel, up $3.07. Naphtha CFR Japan was at $625.63 per ton, up $1.5. The Northeast Asian ethylene price was $810 per ton, up $10. The CFR China butadiene price was $1,070 per ton, up $20 [2]. - The market price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,400 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton. The weekly butadiene production capacity was 147,700 tons, unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 68.98%, up 0.96 percentage points [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene was 21,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons. The operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 45.12%, down 1.88 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of butadiene rubber was 17,900 tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 65.03%, down 2.22 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber was 306 yuan/ton, and the social inventory of butadiene rubber was 33,900 tons, a decrease of 100 tons [2]. - The manufacturer's inventory of butadiene rubber was 27,650 tons, a decrease of 650 tons. The trader's inventory of butadiene rubber was 6,210 tons, an increase of 530 tons [2]. - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 77.98%, up 4.12 percentage points. The operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 61.24%, down 2.23 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 11.82 million, a decrease of 1.26 million. The monthly output of semi - steel tires was 54.15 million, a decrease of 1.24 million [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 41.74 days, a decrease of 0.13 days. The inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.28 days, an increase of 0.44 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of June 11, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 33,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35% [2]. - As of June 12, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.98%, a month - on - month increase of 5.93 percentage points and a year，on - year decrease of 10 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 58.70%, a month - on - month increase of 3.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.95 percentage points [2]. - In May 2025, the heavy - truck market in China sold about 83,000 vehicles, a 5% decrease from April and a 6% increase from the same period last year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market were about 435,500 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 1% [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply of raw material butadiene is relatively sufficient, weakening the cost support for butadiene rubber production. Recently, many domestic butadiene rubber producers have carried out maintenance and shutdowns. Some traders have placed orders for replenishment, but the lack of actual positive factors has hindered sales. Producer inventories have slightly decreased, while trader inventories have increased. [2] - In terms of demand, the production schedules of previously overhauled enterprises have gradually returned to normal levels. Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased month - on - month. In the short term, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises is expected to fluctuate slightly. The BR2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,000 - 11,600 in the short term. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber was 11,485 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The position of the main contract was 16,181 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,138 yuan/ton. The 7 - 8 spread of synthetic rubber was 160 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses was 5,170 tons, unchanged from the previous period. [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different producers in different regions showed various changes, with prices ranging from 11,600 - 11,650 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was 215 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. [2] - The price of Brent crude oil was 73.23 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1 dollar/barrel. The price of WTI crude oil was 71.77 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.21 dollars/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 800 dollars/ton, an increase of 10 dollars/ton. The price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was 624.13 dollars/ton, an increase of 3.63 dollars/ton. The intermediate price of butadiene (CFR China) was 1,050 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton. [2] Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 14.77 million tons/week, unchanged from the previous period. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 68.98%, an increase of 0.96 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 21,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 45.12%, a decrease of 1.88 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of butadiene rubber was 13.94 million tons, an increase of 1.79 million tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 65.03%, a decrease of 2.22 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber was - 576 yuan/ton, an increase of 306 yuan/ton. The social inventory of butadiene rubber was 3.39 million tons, a decrease of 0.01 million tons. The producer inventory of butadiene rubber decreased by 650 tons, and the trader inventory increased by 530 tons to 6,210 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 77.98%, an increase of 4.12 percentage points, and the operating rate of full - steel tires was 61.24%, a decrease of 2.23 percentage points. The monthly output of full - steel tires was 1,182 thousand pieces, a decrease of 126 thousand pieces, and the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 5,415 thousand pieces, a decrease of 124 thousand pieces. The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong were 41.74 days, a decrease of 0.13 days, and the inventory days of semi - steel tires were 46.28 days, an increase of 0.44 days. [2] Industry News - As of June 11, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 3.39 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 million tons or 0.35%. [2] - As of June 12, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.98%, a month - on - month increase of 5.93 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.00 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 58.70%, a month - on - month increase of 3.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.95 percentage points. [2] - In May 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale basis), a month - on - month decrease of 5% compared to April and a year - on - year increase of about 6%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 435,500 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 1%. [2]

BD 乖 灰安期货 永安合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/6/17 | | | 指标 | 5/15 | 6/9 | 6/12 | 6/13 | 6/16 | 日度变化 | 周度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 主力合约收盘价 | 12260 | 11270 | 11035 | 11390 | 11565 | 175 | ટતેર | | | | | 22783 | 22981 | 21103 | 19801 | 18319 | -1482 | -4662 | | | | 主力合约持仓量 | | | | | | | | | | 探讨 | 主力合约成交量 | 126864 | 104086 | 121876 | 206269 | 159100 | -47169 | 55014 | | | | 仓単数量 | 11680 | 11630 | 12820 | 12520 | 12520 | 0 | 890 | | | | 虚实比 | 9.75 | 9.88 | 8.23 | 7.91 | 7.32 | ...

Report Information - Report Title: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] - Report Date: June 16, 2025 [2] Key Data Highlights BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of the main contract was 11,390 on June 13, up 355 from the previous day and 90 from May 14. The trading volume was 206,269, an increase of 84,393 from the previous day and 46,762 from May 14. The open interest decreased by 1,302 to 19,801 compared to the previous day and 5,079 from May 14 [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts was 12,520 on June 13, a decrease of 300 from the previous day but an increase of 720 from May 14 [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: The butadiene basis (two - oil) was 410 on June 13, a decrease of 155 from the previous day but an increase of 110 from May 14. The 6 - 7 month spread was -70, a decrease of 250 from the previous day and 85 from May 14 [3]. - **Market Price**: The Shandong market price was 11,700 on June 13, an increase of 150 from the previous day and 100 from May 14. The Qilu ex - factory price was 11,800, an increase of 200 from the previous day and 200 from May 14 [3]. - **Profit**: The spot processing profit was -37 on June 13, a decrease of 3 from the previous day but an increase of 508 from May 14. The import profit was -84,605, a decrease of 1,618 from the previous day and 1,455 from May 14 [3]. BD (Butadiene) - **Market Price**: The Shandong market price was 9,350 on June 13, an increase of 150 from the previous day but a decrease of 400 from May 14. The CFR China price was 1,080, unchanged from the previous day and a decrease of 40 from May 14 [3]. - **Profit**: The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 264 on June 13, an increase of 188 from the previous day but a decrease of 472 from May 14. The import profit was 482, an increase of 287 from the previous day and 181 from May 14 [3]. Downstream Products - **Profit**: The butadiene - styrene production profit was 488 on June 13, unchanged from the previous day and an increase of 200 from May 14. Some downstream product profit data such as ABS and SBS (791 - H) were marked as unavailable [3]. Variety Spreads - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: The RU - BR spread was -5,926 on June 13, an increase of 1,592 from the previous day and 5,304 from May 14. The NR - BR spread was -7,696, an increase of 1,477 from the previous day [3]. - **Intra - Variety Spreads**: The butadiene standard - non - standard price difference was 250 on June 13, a decrease of 150 from the previous day but an increase of 50 from May 14. The butadiene - styrene 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,050, an increase of 50 from the previous day and 50 from May 14 [3]

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: June 15, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Yang Honghan [1] - Investment Advisory Qualification Number: Z0021541 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Bullish [2][4] Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of synthetic rubber is bullish due to the escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, which drives up international energy prices. However, in the medium - term, the supply in the synthetic rubber industry chain remains high, and the supply growth rate exceeds the demand growth rate, so there is still fundamental pressure [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Outlook - **Futures Static Valuation**: The fundamental static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures is 11,100 - 11,900 yuan/ton. The dynamic valuation is expected to fluctuate. The upper valuation limit of the market is around 11,800 - 11,900 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation limit is 11,100 yuan/ton [4]. - **Butadiene Fundamentals**: Asian butadiene prices are stable, and domestic butadiene prices fluctuate around 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton. The supply - side operating rate is still high year - on - year but has decreased month - on - month. The short - term import volume is neutral. The demand from butadiene rubber has declined, while the rigid demand from styrene - butadiene, ABS, and SBS remains. The inventory of production enterprises has increased slightly, and port inventory has decreased. It is expected to show a pattern of support during fluctuations [4]. - **Butadiene Rubber Fundamentals**: The processing profit of butadiene rubber is approaching the break - even point. The supply - side operating rate is expected to remain high year - on - year but decline month - on - month. The apparent demand this week remains high, and alternative demand supports the total demand. The inventory is at a high level year - on - year. The fundamentals have a weak driving force, and the spot is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4]. - **Butadiene Rubber Futures**: In the short term, the synthetic rubber may follow the upward trend of oil products. In the medium term, the fundamental pressure is still high. The current main contradiction in the market is the geopolitical conflict, and it is expected to be bullish in the short term and face pressure after returning to fundamentals in the medium term [4]. - **Strategy**: Bullish in the short - term for single - side trading; the spread between NR and BR is expected to narrow [4]. 2. Butadiene Fundamentals - **Pricing Stage**: Butadiene is currently in the supply - demand pricing stage, with a low correlation with the raw material end [7]. - **Capacity Expansion**: To match the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and butadiene rubber, butadiene capacity is continuously expanding, with the speed and amplitude slightly faster than downstream industries at certain stages [9]. - **New Capacity**: In 2024, the total new capacity was 380,000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 860,000 tons [11]. - **Supply - side Operating Rate**: The overall operating rate is high year - on - year but has decreased month - on - month due to the concentrated maintenance of some ethylene plants [4]. - **Demand - side**: The demand from butadiene rubber has declined, while the rigid demand from styrene - butadiene, ABS, and SBS remains [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of production enterprises has increased slightly, and port inventory has decreased [4]. 3. Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Butadiene Rubber Supply - Output**: The output is affected by the operating rate. Some enterprises are under maintenance, and the overall operating rate is expected to remain high year - on - year but decline month - on - month [4][40]. - **Butadiene Rubber Supply - Cost and Profit**: The processing profit is approaching the break - even point, and the cost is mainly determined by butadiene prices [4][42]. - **Butadiene Rubber Supply - Import and Export**: The import and export volumes show certain trends over time, but specific data are not deeply analyzed in the report [45][46]. - **Butadiene Rubber Supply - Inventory**: The inventory is at a high level year - on - year, including enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory [50][51]. - **Butadiene Rubber Demand - Tires**: The inventory and operating rate of tires in Shandong Province are used to reflect the demand for butadiene rubber. The inventory and operating rate of semi - steel and all - steel tires show different trends [54][55].

下灰鼓期货 永安合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/6/13 | | | 指标 | 5/13 | 6/5 | 6/10 | 6/11 | 6/12 | 日度变化 | 周度変化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 主力合约收盘价 | 12205 | 10960 | 11230 | 11225 | 11035 | -190 | 75 | | | | 主力合约持仓量 | 26422 | 26276 | 21708 | 22765 | 21103 | -1662 | -5173 | | | ： | 主力合约成交量 | 219791 | ਰੇਰੇਵਟਰ | 104597 | 112068 | 121876 | 9808 | 22217 | | | | | 11540 | 11800 | 11570 | 11420 | 12820 | 1400 | 1020 | | | | 仓単数量 | | | | | | | | | | | 虚实比 | 11.45 | 11.13 | 9.38 | 9.97 | 8.23 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Contract Information - The closing price of the main contract was 11,225 on 6/11, a decrease of 5 from the previous day and an increase of 130 compared to 5/12 [3] - The open interest of the main contract was 22,765 on 6/11, an increase of 1,057 from the previous day and a decrease of 4,918 compared to 5/12 [3] - The trading volume of the main contract was 112,068 on 6/11, an increase of 7,471 from the previous day and a decrease of 17,780 compared to 5/12 [3] 3.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of cis - butadiene rubber (BR) and the spread between different months showed various changes. For example, the 6 - 7 month spread was -10 on 6/11, a change of -145 compared to 5/12; the 7 - 8 month spread was 180 on 6/11, an increase of 10 from the previous day and 20 compared to 5/12 [3] - The basis differences between different types of rubbers, such as the difference between cis - butadiene and styrene - butadiene rubber, also changed. The styrene - butadiene basis was 575 on 6/11, a decrease of 45 from the previous day and 80 compared to 5/12 [3] 3.3 Spot Market - The market prices of BR in Shandong and Zhejiang's Chuanhua, as well as the ex - factory price of Qilu Petrochemical, had different trends. The Shandong market price was 11,550 on 6/11, a decrease of 50 from the previous day but an increase of 150 compared to 5/12 [3] - CFR prices in Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia remained stable on 6/11 compared to the previous day, with decreases of 75 and 25 respectively compared to 5/12 [3] 3.4 Processing and Import - Export - The spot processing profit of BR was -136 on 6/11, an increase of 103 from the previous day and 201 compared to 5/12; the disk processing profit was -461 on 6/11, an increase of 148 from the previous day and 181 compared to 5/12 [3] - The import profit of BR was -83,084 on 6/11, an increase of 42 from the previous day but a decrease of 1,377 compared to 5/12; the export profit was -289 on 6/11, an increase of 34 from the previous day but a decrease of 680 compared to 5/12 [3] 3.5 Butadiene (BD) Information - The market prices of BD in Shandong and Jiangsu, as well as the ex - factory price of Yangzi Petrochemical, had different changes. The Shandong market price was 9,300 on 6/11, a decrease of 150 from the previous day and 50 compared to 5/12 [3] - The CFR price of BD in China was 1,080 on 6/11, a decrease of 20 from the previous day and 70 compared to 5/12 [3] - The profit of BD extraction from C4 and butylene oxidative dehydrogenation also changed. The profit of butylene oxidative dehydrogenation was 126 on 6/11, a decrease of 220 from the previous day and 510 compared to 5/12 [3] 3.6 Downstream Profit - The production profits of downstream products such as ABS, SBS, and the production profits of BR and styrene - butadiene rubber also showed different trends. The styrene - butadiene production profit was 488 on 6/11, an increase of 225 from the previous day and 400 compared to 5/12 [3] 3.7 Spread between Varieties - The spreads between different rubber varieties, such as the spread between Thai mixed rubber and cis - butadiene rubber, and the spread between 3L and styrene - butadiene rubber, changed. The spread between Thai mixed rubber and cis - butadiene rubber was 2,280 on 6/11, an increase of 140 from the previous day and 80 compared to 5/12 [3]