Industry Overview - The Chinese isobutylene isoprene rubber (IIR) industry has experienced rapid growth but remains in a "large but not strong" phase [1][13] - In the first five months of 2025, China's IIR production reached 135,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 105.02%, while consumption was 228,600 tons, up 52.77% [1][13] - The industry is undergoing capacity expansion and technological upgrades, leading to a significant increase in overall production [1][13] - Domestic breakthroughs in halogenated butyl rubber (HIIR) technology have improved the self-sufficiency of high-end products, reducing reliance on imports [1][13] Demand Drivers - The domestic tire industry is recovering, particularly with the rapid development of new energy vehicles and high-end radial tires, significantly increasing the demand for high-performance IIR [1][13] - Emerging application fields such as pharmaceutical packaging and sealing materials are also growing rapidly, further expanding the market space for IIR [1][13] Industry Development Stages - The IIR industry in China has gone through three main stages: 1. **Initial Stage (1966-1999)**: The first domestic IIR production facility was established in 1999, ending complete reliance on imports [4] 2. **Capacity Expansion Stage (2000-2020)**: Significant capacity expansion occurred, with major players developing their production capabilities [5] 3. **Market Maturity Stage (2021-Present)**: The industry has seen optimization in processes and increased support from the government for technological innovation [6] Industry Chain - The upstream of the IIR industry includes raw materials such as isobutylene and isoprene, while the midstream involves the manufacturing of IIR [8] - The downstream applications include tires, pharmaceutical bottle stoppers, waterproof materials, and sealing adhesives [8] Key Enterprises - Major players in the IIR industry include: - **Sinopec Beijing Yanshan Petrochemical**: The first to achieve IIR industrialization in China with a capacity of 135,000 tons/year [17][18] - **Zhejiang Xinhui New Materials**: The largest domestic producer with an annual capacity exceeding 250,000 tons [17][20] - **Jingbo Zhongju New Materials**: A subsidiary of Jingbo Group with a capacity of about 120,000 tons/year [17][24] Future Trends - The industry is expected to shift towards high-end and functional products, with halogenated IIR gradually replacing traditional IIR due to superior properties [24] - There is a strong focus on green and sustainable development, with companies adopting cleaner production processes and developing bio-based and degradable rubber products [25] - Market competition is intensifying, with leading companies likely to increase their market share while smaller firms may face consolidation or exit [26]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the context of anti - involution narratives and expectations of incremental policies, the overall stock and commodity markets remain strong, while long - term bonds are under pressure. The market is affected by factors such as trade negotiations, central bank policies, and supply - demand relationships in different sectors [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Equity Index - There is an obvious high - low rotation among sectors. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions in IM futures and switch to a small amount of short positions in put options on MO with a strike price of 6000 in the 08 contract, and reduce positions, maintaining a moderately bullish stance. On the unilateral strategy, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term and pay attention to the capital situation and incremental policies [2]. Treasury Bonds - The risk assets suppress long - term bonds. With the tightening of the capital market, the short - selling sentiment in the bond futures market has increased, and the redemption pressure on bond funds may start to rise, which still suppresses the bond market. In terms of the curve strategy, it is possible to continue to bet on the steepening [2]. Precious Metals - Gold is supported by the weakening of the US dollar's credit and its commodity attributes, and it oscillates above the 60 - day moving average. Silver has further upside potential due to the general rise of domestic industrial products and capital inflows, and long positions can be held. Gold continues to correct as the European Central Bank pauses rate cuts for the first time in a year and the risk - aversion sentiment eases [2]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC main contract rebounds slightly. With the increasing expectation of anti - involution, the price continues to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to hold short positions in the 08 contract or short the 10 contract at high prices [2]. Steel and Iron Ore - The iron ore has insufficient upward momentum as the molten iron output slightly decreases and the port inventory slightly increases. It is recommended to go long on coking coal and short on iron ore. The steel price continues to oscillate strongly, and long positions can be held [2]. Coking Coal and Coke - The expectation of production - restriction documents is rising, the resumption of coal mines is lagging, the spot market is strong, and the transaction is picking up. The third round of price increases by mainstream coking plants has started, and there is still an expectation of price increases. It is recommended to take profits on long positions step by step at high prices [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The short - term sentiment fades, and high copper prices suppress demand. - Aluminum: The market sentiment is bullish, and the aluminum price oscillates at a high level, but the expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season is still strong. - Other non - ferrous metals also have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions based on factors such as macro - sentiment, inventory, and supply - demand [2]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: The macro - sentiment eases, and the demand expectation recovers, pushing up the oil price. - Other energy and chemical products such as urea, PX, PTA, etc., have different market trends and trading suggestions according to factors such as supply - demand, macro - environment, and cost [2]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, palm oil, etc., have different market trends and trading suggestions based on factors such as supply - demand, weather, and policy [2]. Special Commodities - Glass: The document on air pollution prevention boosts market sentiment, and the spot transaction is strong. - Rubber: The macro - sentiment is positive, and supply disruptions due to rainy weather in overseas production areas and conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia drive up the rubber price. - Other special commodities also have corresponding market trends and trading suggestions [2]. New Energy - Polysilicon futures oscillate and rise to a new high, but attention should be paid to the risk of a pullback due to the increase in warehouse receipts. - Recycled lithium: The market sentiment is boosted, but the fundamental change is not significant. It is recommended to be cautious and stay on the sidelines [2].

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Core Viewpoint - The Chinese ethylene-propylene rubber (EPM) industry is experiencing significant growth driven by technological advancements and increasing demand, particularly in the automotive sector, with production and consumption showing substantial year-on-year increases in early 2025 [1][11]. Industry Overview - Ethylene-propylene rubber (EPM) is a synthetic rubber produced from the polymerization of ethylene and propylene monomers, characterized by its excellent aging resistance, ozone resistance, heat resistance, and chemical corrosion resistance [2][4]. Industry Development History - The development of the Chinese EPM industry has gone through four stages: 1. Initial stage (1960-1977) with early research and small-scale production [4]. 2. Rapid development stage (1978-2014) marked by the introduction of foreign technology and significant production capacity increases [4][5]. 3. Industrial upgrade stage (2015-2020) where domestic companies improved production efficiency and reduced import dependency [5][6]. 4. High-end transformation stage (2020-present) focusing on technological breakthroughs and product quality enhancement [6]. Industry Chain - The upstream of the EPM industry chain includes raw materials (ethylene, propylene, catalysts, solvents) and production equipment [9]. The midstream involves the manufacturing of EPM, while the downstream applications span automotive parts, rubber products, polymer modification, and electrical cables [9]. Current Industry Status - In the first five months of 2025, China's EPM production reached 128,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.09%, while consumption was 201,800 tons, up 19.82% [1][11]. The automotive sector, particularly with the rise of electric vehicles, is a key driver of demand [1][11]. Key Enterprises - The EPM industry is highly concentrated, with major players including: - Arlanxeo (Changzhou) with a capacity of 160,000 tons/year, leading in high-performance EPDM [19][20]. - Jilin Petrochemical with a capacity of 85,000 tons/year, focusing on domestic technology and cost optimization [19][20]. - Shanghai Sinopec Mitsui with a capacity of 75,000 tons/year, leveraging Sino-Japanese technology [19][20]. - SK Global Chemical and Yan'an Energy Chemical with capacities of 50,000 tons/year and 25,000 tons/year, respectively [19][20]. Industry Development Trends 1. **Technological-Driven High-End Transformation**: The industry is shifting from scale expansion to technological breakthroughs, with innovations in catalyst systems and production processes [26]. 2. **Structural Upgrade in Market Demand**: There is a significant transition in demand from traditional to emerging applications, particularly in the automotive and electrical sectors [27]. 3. **Green and Sustainable Development**: The industry faces challenges related to rising costs and stricter environmental regulations, prompting investments in technology upgrades and recycling initiatives [28].

- 160000 BR主力合约盘面概览 BR价格结构 17000 140000 12500 - 120000 15000 12000 1000000 13000 80000 11500 60000 11000 11000 40000 9000 10500 20000 7000 10000 08合约 10台约 现货 09合约 -- 7/24 -- 7/23 -- 7/22 --- 7/17 --- 6/24 丁苯-BR基差 顺丁-BR基差 BR08-09 2500 600 800 2000 400 600 1 200 200 400 1000 200 500 -200 0 -400 -20Q -500 -600 -400 -1000 -800 -600 -800 - -1500 -1000 - 2024 - 2023 -- 2024 -- · 2025 2025 2023 - 2023 - · 2024 · · 2025 顺丁山东市场价(贴近下游) 顺丁浙江传化市场价(贴近现货) BR09-10 600 - 18000 18000 16000 16000 400 14000 14000 200 12000 12 ...

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Zeon and Yokohama Rubber to establish a pilot plant for bio-based butadiene marks a significant step towards sustainable synthetic rubber production, aiming for commercial viability by 2034 [1][8]. Group 1: Industry Overview - Butadiene is the most widely used rubber raw material globally, serving as a core monomer for various synthetic rubbers such as Styrene-Butadiene Rubber (SBR) and Polybutadiene Rubber (BR) [2]. - SBR and BR have production capacities of 6.8 million tons/year and 5.2 million tons/year, respectively, making them the top two synthetic rubbers used in automotive tires [3]. Group 2: Technological Developments - Zeon is pursuing two main technological routes for bio-based butadiene production: 1. Ethanol-based catalytic synthesis, which faces challenges such as catalyst carbon deposition and cost-effectiveness of high-purity ethanol [5]. 2. Direct biosynthesis using enzyme catalysis or microbial metabolism, which is currently limited to laboratory stages due to complexities in metabolic pathways and high costs of engineered bacteria [6]. - The pilot plant will validate the efficiency of new catalysts in converting bio-based ethanol to butadiene, with the goal of producing polybutadiene rubber prototypes for tire testing [8]. Group 3: Market Trends - Major companies in the synthetic rubber and tire industry are increasingly investing in bio-based butadiene, primarily using ethanol as a raw material, indicating a shift towards sustainable practices [4][7]. - The project is expected to complete process validation by 2030 and achieve industrialization by 2034, contributing to reduced reliance on petroleum and advancing carbon neutrality in the tire industry [8].

Report Information - Report Title: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Report Date: July 22, 2025 - Data Sources: Mysteel, Wind [7][17] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the report. Summary by Relevant Catalogs BR (Butadiene Rubber) Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract on July 21 was 11,995, up 275 from the previous day and 370 from June 19 [3][13]. - The open interest of the main contract was 14,993, down 2,221 from the previous day and 9,436 from June 19 [3][13]. - The trading volume of the main contract was 87,016, down 3,349 from the previous day but up 12,030 from June 19 [3][13]. - The warrant quantity remained at 9,700, with no change from the previous day but an increase of 500 from June 19 [3][13]. - The virtual - real ratio was 7.73, down 1 from the previous day and 6 from June 19 [3][13]. Basis and Month - to - Month Spread - The butadiene basis was - 145, down 125 from the previous day and 170 from June 19 [3][13]. - The butadiene basis (two - oil) decreased, with a decrease of 70 compared to previous data [3][13]. - The styrene - butadiene basis was 305, down 75 from the previous day and 120 from June 19 [3][13]. - The 8 - 9 month spread was 0, with a daily change of 0 and an increase of 5 compared to previous data [3][13]. - The 9 - 10 month spread was 25, down 5 from the previous day and unchanged from June 19 [3][13]. Spot Market - The Shandong market price was 11,850, up 150 from the previous day and 200 from June 19 [3][13]. - The Chuanhua market price was 11,800, up 200 from the previous day and 250 from June 19 [3][13]. - The Qilu ex - factory price was 12,000, up 300 from the previous day and 300 from June 19 [3][13]. - CFR Northeast Asia remained at 1,425, with no change [3][13]. - CFR Southeast Asia was 1,730, with no change from the previous day but a decrease of 20 from June 19 [3][13]. Processing and Import - Export - The spot processing profit was - 372, down 233 from the previous day and 269 from June 19 [3][13]. - The futures processing profit was - 227, down 108 from the previous day and 99 from June 19 [3][13]. - The import profit was - 85,993, down 2,208 from the previous day and 2,358 from June 19 [3][13]. - The export profit was - 733, down 138 from the previous day and 161 from June 19 [3][13]. BD (Butadiene) Price - The Shandong market price was 9,825, up 375 from the previous day and 460 from June 19 [3][13]. - The Jiangsu market price was 9,600, up 150 from the previous day and 300 from June 19 [3][13]. - The Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,600, up 200 from the previous day and 300 from June 19 [3][13]. - CFR China was 1,050, with no change from the previous day but a decrease of 20 from June 19 [3][13]. Processing and Import - Export - The carbon - four extraction profit data after July 18 was not available [3][13]. - The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 646, up 150 from the previous day and 510 from June 19 [3][13]. - The import profit was 933, up 157 from the previous day and 451 from June 19 [3][13]. - The export profit was - 1,468, down 136 from the previous day and 395 from June 19 [3][13]. Downstream Profit - The butadiene rubber production profit was - 227, down 108 from the previous day and 99 from June 19 [3][13]. - The styrene - butadiene rubber production profit was 575, down 50 from the previous day and 100 from June 19 [3][13]. - The ABS production profit data after July 17 was not available [3][13]. - The SBS 791 - H production profit was 530, down 140 from the previous day and 180 from June 19 [3][13]. Spread Inter - Variety Spread - The difference between Thai mixed rubber and butadiene rubber was 2,720, down 80 from the previous day but up 220 from June 19 [3][13]. - The difference between 3L rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,500, down 150 from the previous day and unchanged from June 19 [3][13]. - The difference between RU - BR was - 98, up 2,306 from the previous day and 9,971 from June 19 [3][13]. - The difference between NR - BR was - 2,243, up 2,296 from the previous day and 9,861 from June 19 [3][13]. Intra - Variety Spread - The difference between standard and non - standard butadiene rubber was 100, down 100 from the previous day and 100 from June 19 [3][13]. - The difference between styrene - butadiene 1502 and 1712 was 1,100, down 100 from the previous day and 50 from June 19 [3][13].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [3] - Report Date: July 21, 2025 [3] Group 2: BR Contract Data - On July 18, the closing price of the main BR contract was 11720, with a daily increase of 150 and a weekly increase of 105 [4] - The position volume of the main contract was 17214, a daily decrease of 1197 and a weekly decrease of 9080 [4] - The trading volume of the main contract was 90362, a daily increase of 20978 and a weekly increase of 8066 [4] - The warehouse receipt quantity was 9700, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 1100 [4] - The virtual - real ratio was 8.87, a daily decrease of 1 and a weekly decrease of 6 [4] Group 3: BR Basis and Spread Data - The butadiene - styrene basis was 380, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 105 [4] - The 8 - 9 month spread was 25, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 5 [4] - The 9 - 10 month spread was 30, a daily increase of 15 and a weekly increase of 5 [4] Group 4: BR Spot Price Data - The Shandong market price was 11700, a daily increase of 100 and a weekly increase of 50 [4] - The Chuanhua market price was 11600, a daily increase of 100 and a weekly increase of 100 [4] - The Qilu ex - factory price was 11700, with no daily or weekly change [4] - CFR Northeast Asia was 1425, with no daily or weekly change [4] - CFR Southeast Asia was 1730, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 20 [4] Group 5: BR Processing and Import - Export Data - The spot processing profit was - 139, a daily increase of 49 and a weekly decrease of 103 [4] - The disk processing profit was - 119, with a certain change compared to previous data and a weekly decrease of 48 [4] - The import profit was - 83785, a daily increase of 38 and a weekly decrease of 146 [4] - The export profit was - 202, a daily decrease of 81 and a weekly decrease of 23 [4] Group 6: BD Price and Profit Data - The Shandong market price was 9450, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly increase of 150 [4] - The Jiangsu market price was 9450, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly increase of 150 [4] - The Yangzi ex - factory price was 9400, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 200 [4] - CFR China was 1050, a daily decrease of 10 and no weekly change [4] - The carbon - four extraction profit was N/A, and the data for daily and weekly changes were not available [4] - The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 496, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly increase of 430 [4] - The import profit was 777, a daily increase of 126 and a weekly increase of 132 [4] - The export profit was - 1331, a daily decrease of 39 and a weekly decrease of 259 [4] Group 7: Downstream Product Profit Data - The butadiene - styrene production profit was 575, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 125 [4] - The SBS production profit (791 - H) was 670, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 90 [4] - The ABS production profit data for July 18 and daily change were N/A [4] Group 8: Inter - variety Spread Data - RU - BR was - 2404, a daily increase of 1342 and a weekly increase of 9530 [4] - NR - BR was - 5826, a daily increase of 1287 [4] - Thai mixed - butadiene was 2800, a daily decrease of 20 and a weekly increase of 300 [4] - 3L - butadiene - styrene was 2650, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly increase of 200 [4] Group 9: Intra - variety Spread Data - The butadiene standard - non - standard price difference was 200, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 50 [4] - The butadiene - styrene 1502 - 1712 was 1200, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly increase of 50 [4]

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report - Report Date: July 20, 2025 - Report Author: Yang Honghan - Report Institution: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the price center of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber is moving up. Butadiene is expected to continue a slight upward trend next week, while cis - butadiene rubber is also showing a strong performance. Mid - term, the fundamentals of both face pressure. The increase in supply of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber may limit price elasticity and upside space [3][5]. - Butadiene is currently in the stage of supply - demand pricing, with a low correlation with the raw material end [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Synthetic Rubber Summary - **Supply**: In late July, the production of cis - butadiene rubber is at the break - even point. Jinzhou Petrochemical and Heze Kexin's cis - butadiene rubber plants restarted this week, and Yanshan Petrochemical is expected to restart in the middle and late next week. After the capacity of the previously restarted plants is released, domestic supply will increase significantly [3]. - **Demand**: For rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to fluctuate slightly next week. Order volume has increased in the middle of the month, which is expected to drive overall production slightly. In terms of substitution demand, the price difference between NR - BR main contracts is maintained at 600 - 1000 yuan/ton, and substitution demand remains high. Overall, the demand side of cis - butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [3]. - **Inventory**: As of July 16, 2025 (week 29), the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 32,300 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.59%. During this period, supported by cost and boosted by macro - sentiment, the inventory of sample production enterprises decreased, while that of sample trading enterprises increased slightly [3]. - **Viewpoint**: Short - term, the price center of cis - butadiene rubber is moving up and showing a strong performance. The reasons include the expected optimization of the supply - side of bulk commodities, the strong performance of the rubber sector, and the marginal improvement of the synthetic rubber industry chain fundamentals. Mid - term, the supply increase may limit price elasticity and upside space [3]. - **Valuation**: The static valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,200 - 11,900 yuan/ton. The dynamic valuation is expected to rise gradually. The upper limit of the fundamental valuation is 11,800 - 11,900 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation bottom range is 11,200 yuan/ton [3]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is strong, with resistance at 11,800 - 11,900 yuan/ton and support at 11,100 - 11,200 yuan/ton. There is no cross - period strategy, and the NR - BR price difference is in a short - term shock range [3]. 3.2 Weekly Butadiene Summary - **Supply**: Some plants stopped for maintenance this week, resulting in a decrease in domestic butadiene supply. This period's output was 100,400 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.38%, and the capacity utilization rate was 67.96%, a decrease of 0.93% from the previous period [5]. - **Demand**: In the synthetic rubber sector, the operating rates of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene is at a high year - on - year level. In the ABS sector, due to high inventory pressure, the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant. In the SBS sector, the operating rate has increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene is for rigid procurement [5]. - **Inventory**: During the period from July 10 - 16, 2025, the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples decreased, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.18%. The inventory of sample enterprises increased slightly, while the inventory of sample ports decreased significantly, with a month - on - month decrease of 15.25% [5]. - **Viewpoint**: Short - term, butadiene is driven by the rebound of bulk commodities and downstream rigid procurement. Spot trading has improved this week, and the price has risen slightly. It is expected to continue the upward trend next week. The overall arrival volume of butadiene in July is expected to be low, and port prices may remain resilient. Mid - term, supply pressure is the main contradiction, and the fundamentals are under pressure. After the macro - sentiment eases, it is expected to enter a weak pattern again [5]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals - **Capacity**: To match the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and cis - butadiene, butadiene capacity is continuously expanding, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries at certain stages [10]. - **Supply - Side - Operating Rate**: The operating rate has fluctuated due to plant maintenance. Some major plants have carried out maintenance this year, affecting the overall supply [14][16]. - **Net Imports**: Relevant data shows the situation of butadiene imports and exports, and import profit is affected by factors such as market price and import cost [17]. - **Demand - Side**: - **Cis - Butadiene and Styrene - Butadiene Rubber**: The capacity of related enterprises is expanding. Some new plants have been put into operation in 2024 - 2025, and the operating rate of some plants is high, with a high demand for butadiene [18][23]. - **ABS and SBS**: The capacity of ABS and SBS has also increased in recent years. The operating rate of ABS has fluctuated, and the inventory pressure is relatively large. The operating rate of SBS has increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene is for rigid procurement [24][27][28]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of butadiene includes enterprise inventory and port inventory. Recently, port inventory has decreased significantly, while enterprise inventory has increased slightly [30][31]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals (Cis - Butadiene Rubber) - **Supply - Output**: The weekly output of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber in China shows certain fluctuations. The operating status of each plant affects overall output [35]. - **Supply - Cost and Profit**: The theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin of cis - butadiene rubber have changed over time, which are affected by factors such as raw material prices and production efficiency [37][38][39]. - **Supply - Import and Export**: The monthly import and export volume of cis - butadiene rubber shows different trends over the years, which is related to domestic and international market supply - demand relationships [40][41]. - **Supply - Inventory**: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber includes enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory. Recently, enterprise inventory has decreased slightly [44][45]. - **Demand - Tires**: The inventory days of all - steel tires and semi - steel tires in Shandong Province, as well as the operating rates of domestic semi - steel and all - steel tires, show certain fluctuations, which are related to market demand and production plans [48][49].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Cost factors support the current price of cis - butadiene rubber, but downstream procurement remains cautious, and shipping resistance may increase. Short - term inventory levels are expected to increase slightly. - The capacity utilization rates of domestic tire enterprises varied last week. The resumption of production of semi - steel tire enterprises after early - month maintenance boosted the overall capacity utilization rate, while the maintenance of some all - steel tire enterprises dragged down its capacity utilization rate. This week, the capacity utilization rate still has room for improvement, which will drive the overall tire enterprise capacity utilization rate. - The BR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,300 - 11,800 in the short term. [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11,525 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest was 20,703 lots, down 2,036 lots. - The 8 - 9 spread of synthetic rubber was 75 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 2,100 tons, unchanged. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from various petrochemical companies in different regions decreased by 40 - 50 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was 75 yuan/ton, down 0.46 yuan/ton. - The market price of butadiene in Shandong was down. The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, Northeast Asian ethylene, and CFR Japan naphtha changed, with Brent down 0.5 dollars/barrel, WTI unchanged, Northeast Asian ethylene unchanged, and CFR Japan naphtha down 13.25 dollars/ton. The CFR China butadiene price was 1,070 dollars/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene was 147,800 tons, unchanged, and the capacity utilization rate was 68.89%, down 2.02 percentage points. - The port inventory of butadiene was 23,600 tons, up 1,270 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 46.14%, up 1.17 percentage points. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 122,500 tons, down 16,900 tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate was 65.54%, down 1.44 percentage points. - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 526 yuan/ton, down 362 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 32,800 tons, down 400 tons. The manufacturer's inventory was 26,500 tons, up 150 tons, and the trader's inventory was 6,270 tons, down 530 tons. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 72.92%, up 2.51 percentage points, and that of all - steel tires was 64.56%, up 0.81 percentage points. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces, and that of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 40.67 days, up 0.22 days, and those of semi - steel tires were 45.76 days, down 0.72 days. [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of July 10, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 32,800 tons, down 0.04 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15%. - As of July 10, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.79%, a month - on - month increase of 1.66 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 14.25 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.55 percentage points. - In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles (wholesale basis), a month - on - month increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of about 29%. From January to June, the cumulative sales were about 533,300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6%. [2]