12月8日，泡泡玛特（9992.HK）港股盘中股价跌超9%，引发市场关注。截至收盘，泡泡玛特港股报 200.40港元/股，跌8.49%，总市值为2691亿港元，较上个交易日蒸发约250亿港元，股价较8月高点回落 超40%。 | 日期 | 卖空量 卖空额 卖空均价 | | --- | --- | | 305.12万 6.23亿 204.020 | 12-08 | | 161.70万 3.51亿 217.340 | 12-05 | | 155.26万 3.32亿 214.040 | 12-04 | 德银12月1日研报指出，为应对需求激增，泡泡玛特将Labubu产能从上半年的1000万只大幅提升至年底 月均5000万只。该行警示，对于依赖独特设计与稀缺性驱动的潮流玩具品牌而言，大规模量产往往是热 度消退的前兆。 当前，市场看空泡泡玛特的情绪正持续升温。同花顺iFinD数据显示，自12月2日以来，泡泡玛特卖空股 数从111.06万股升至305.12万股，卖空金额从2.41亿港元升至6.23亿港元，飙升158%。其中12月8日，泡 泡玛特卖空金额较上一交易日大幅飙升77%，未平仓卖空股数超8400万股。此前，11月21 ...

此前，摩根士丹利报告指出，泡泡玛特正在从过去两年的"爆发式增长"阶段，过渡到未来的"可持续增 长"阶段。该机构预测，泡泡玛特2026年Labubu的收入增速将显著放缓，增长引擎将由单一爆款转向非 Labubu IP的多元化驱动。摩根士丹利将泡泡玛特目标价由382港元下调至325港元，以反映全球消费板 块的不利轮动等因素，亦从侧面反映出市场对潮玩行业高增长可持续性的担忧。 部分机构仍看好泡泡玛特的发展前景。近日，浦银国际发布研报称，作为全球潮玩行业的领先企业，泡 泡玛特拥有稳固的基本面与高确定性的长期增长逻辑。当前该公司估值水平已进入具备较高吸引力的区 间。 华源证券认为，黑色星期五、感恩节、圣诞节接踵而来，海外销售旺季将至，泡泡玛特IP影响力有望持 续释放。华源证券表示，泡泡玛特老IP持续运营，新IP逐步发力，产品形态从盲盒、毛绒拓展至可动玩 偶、饰品等，带动品牌影响力持续破圈。公司作为中国潮玩行业的头部企业，具备IP玩具全产业链运营 能力，通过出众的IP创造、运营能力及渠道端多样的消费者触达能力持续高质量发展，且伴随公司海外 业务逐步扩大、产品海外影响力不断提升，有望打开第二增长极。华源证券持续看好公司在潮 ...

消息面上，据每日经济新闻报道，摩根士丹利（简称"大摩"）近期报告指出，泡泡玛特正在从 过去两年的"爆发式增长"阶段，过渡到未来的"可持续增长"阶段。该机构预测泡泡玛特2026年 Labubu的收入增速将显著放缓，增长引擎将由单一爆款转向非Labubu IP的多元化驱动。 该公司曾在2025年第三季度交出一份颇为亮眼的业绩，整体收益同比激增245%-250%。业绩大 增主要是得益于泡泡玛特此前推出的Mini Labubu、SP不眠剧场等新品，叠加二季度预售发货的 收入确认，直接推动业绩增长。此外，核心IP Labubu延续全球热度，成为关键增长动力。 资料图。本文来源 ：界面新 闻 记者 宋佳楠 泡泡玛特跌超8%，大摩预测明年Labubu收入增速 将显著放缓 12月8日，知名潮玩公司泡泡玛特在港股早盘低开低走，一度跌超8%，创近8个交易日以来新 低。截至午间休市，其股价为201港元，较昨日收盘价下跌18港元，跌幅达8.22%。 11月下旬，伯恩斯坦驻香港亚洲消费股高级研究分析师胡美林指出，围绕泡泡玛特Labubu系列 玩具的狂热情绪，正逐渐重现20世纪90年代"豆豆娃"从鼎盛走向崩盘的"繁荣-萧条"周期。她认 ...

雷递网 乐天 12月8日 曾经被市场热捧的泡泡玛特（股票代码："9992"）正遭遇一轮做空。 泡泡玛特今日股价为200.4港元，较前一交易日下跌8.49%；以收盘价计算，公司市值为2691亿港元。 泡泡玛特今年8月最高股价曾达到339.8港元，这意味着，泡泡玛特的股价已较最高峰时期下跌41%，市值蒸发高达1870亿港元。 2，核心IP"Labubu"稀缺性消失。 德意志银行最新调研指出，为应对上半年供不应求，公司把Labubu的月产量从1,000万只提高到5,000万只，结果二级市场溢价快速缩水：隐藏款价格较峰 值腰斩，常规款3.0、4.0已跌破官方零售价；新品"The Monsters 1 a.m."系列发售即破发。大规模量产被视为"潮流疲劳"的前兆，引发市场对增长持续性的 担忧。 3，海外销售"高基数"下的降速担忧。 公司三季度美国业务同比增速虽仍高达1,200%，但11月"黑五"期间线下销售环比走弱，市场预计当季美国增速将降至500%以下。市场人士指出，投资者 担忧其在美国"黑五"促销期间的销售表现可能不及预期。 投资者担心海外爆发式红利见顶，成为触发做空情绪的重要导火索。 4，机构下调估值与空头加码。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of HERE (formerly known as Quantum Song) from an adult education company to a pure-play trendy toy company, highlighting its financial performance and strategic direction in the competitive market of emotional consumption and cultural assets [3][5][7]. Financial Performance - In the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, HERE achieved revenue of 127 million RMB, a 93.3% increase quarter-over-quarter, surpassing the previous guidance of 100-110 million RMB [5][6]. - The company raised its revenue guidance for the second quarter to 150-160 million RMB, indicating confidence in short-term growth [5]. - The company reported a net loss of approximately 25.8 million RMB for the quarter, which has widened compared to the previous quarter [13]. IP Portfolio - As of September 30, HERE owns 17 IPs, including 11 proprietary IPs, 4 exclusive licensed IPs, and 2 non-exclusive licensed IPs [5]. - The top three performing IPs are WAKUKU, generating approximately 89.73 million RMB in revenue, ZIYULI with 20.76 million RMB, and SIINONO contributing 12.89 million RMB [5][6]. Market Dynamics - The global collectible toy market reached 57.1 billion USD in 2023 and is expected to grow to 69.6 billion USD by 2028, with the Chinese IP toy market projected to grow from 57.8 billion RMB in 2025 to 91.1 billion RMB by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of over 17% [9][10]. - The market is highly fragmented, with nearly 80% of the Chinese market being occupied by numerous small brands, presenting both opportunities and competitive risks for new entrants like HERE [9][10]. Strategic Approach - HERE's strategy involves a dual approach of online and offline channels to enhance brand visibility and IP recognition, leveraging social media platforms for marketing [11][12]. - The company has expanded its offline presence with flagship stores and pop-up events in major cities, aiming to create an immersive brand experience [12]. Production and Supply Chain - HERE's plush blind box production exceeded 1 million units in August, marking a more than 20-fold increase since the beginning of the year, indicating a robust and flexible production system [6][13]. - The rapid scaling of production capacity is crucial for responding to market demands and supporting the launch of popular products [6]. Challenges Ahead - Despite initial success, HERE faces challenges in maintaining profitability and managing operational costs, which have significantly increased during its expansion phase [13]. - The company must evolve from creating a single hit product to establishing a sustainable system capable of consistently producing successful products [13].

十五运会期间，以国家一级保护野生动物中华白海豚为原型设计的吉祥物"喜洋洋"和"乐融融"，凭软萌造型和趣味演绎，被网友亲切唤作"大湾鸡"，成为 继"冰墩墩"后又一现象级文化IP。 据广州市人民政府副秘书长、十五运会广州赛区执委会副主任朱小燚介绍，"十五运会衍生品的销售已经突破了8亿元，并有望达到10亿元""8亿元也就是 589万件"。 "大湾鸡"成为赛场外的"顶流"，不仅仅是数字所展现出的销售业绩，更折射出广州潮玩产业"文化赋能+全链运作"的硬核实力。 这是广州潮玩产业"产业基础+文化内核+创新机制"三重优势的集中爆发。 事实上，潮玩所属的文化产业，广州可谓产业链较完善，产业门类齐全，发展基础雄厚，新闻媒体、动漫、游戏电竞、数字音乐、直播、文化装备、超高 清视频等产业门类规模居于全国前列。 数据显示，2024年，全市规模以上文化及相关产业法人单位3760家，实现营收6040.80亿元，同比增长4.0%；其中16个文化新业态实现营收2780.88亿元， 同比增长6.9%。2024年文化产业增加值约2100亿元（预测数），占全市GDP比重超6.5%。全年接待游客2.5亿人次，实现文旅消费总额3528.23亿元。 2 ...

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market saw a net inflow of 15.4 billion HKD from northbound trading on December 8, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect contributing 11.08 billion HKD and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect contributing 4.32 billion HKD [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - The most bought stocks included Xiaomi Group-W (01810), Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (00981), and Pop Mart (09992) [1] - The most sold stocks were Tencent (00700), Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347), and Alibaba Group-W (09988) [1] Group 2: Detailed Stock Transactions - Xiaomi Group-W had a net inflow of 11.73 billion HKD, supported by a Goldman Sachs report predicting more AI developments in its ecosystem [4] - Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation received a net inflow of 4.66 billion HKD, while Hua Hong Semiconductor faced a net outflow of 2.08 billion HKD [4] - Pop Mart saw a net inflow of 4.32 billion HKD, with Citigroup highlighting the untapped value of its core IP Labubu [5] Group 3: Banking Sector Insights - Agricultural Bank (01288) experienced a net inflow of 2.91 billion HKD, while China Construction Bank (00939) faced a net outflow of 31.55 million HKD [5] - Analysts believe that the negative impact of asset risks on banks' financial indicators is diminishing, suggesting potential for valuation increases in the banking sector [5] Group 4: Technology Sector Trends - Meituan-W (03690) had a net inflow of 1.22 billion HKD, while Alibaba-W and Tencent faced net outflows of 1.03 billion HKD and 7.62 billion HKD, respectively [6] - The technology sector is experiencing a divergence, with expectations of a significant increase in the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [6]

Core Insights - Qimengdao (NASDAQ: HERE) was awarded the "Most Investment Value Chinese Concept Stock" at the 10th Zhito Finance Listed Company Awards, recognizing its excellent business model and social responsibility contributions [1] - In Q1 of FY2026, Qimengdao reported a revenue of 127.1 million yuan, a 93.3% increase quarter-over-quarter, exceeding previous guidance [3] - The company has transitioned from a "transformation period" to an "acceleration mode," showcasing strong IP incubation capabilities with 11 proprietary IPs and significant revenue contributions from its key products [3] Financial Performance - Qimengdao's Q1 FY2026 revenue reached 127.1 million yuan, significantly surpassing the guidance range of 100-110 million yuan [3] - The revenue guidance for Q2 FY2026 is projected to be between 150 million and 160 million yuan [3] - The company’s supply chain efficiency improved, with plush blind box production capacity increasing 35 times compared to the beginning of 2025 [3] Strategic Initiatives - Qimengdao's growth strategy is driven by a dual-engine approach focusing on IP content development and omnichannel collaboration [5] - In Q1 FY2026, the e-commerce GMV reached 44.6 million yuan, with Douyin flagship store GMV increasing by 97.2% [5] - The company is expanding its physical presence with new direct-operated stores and pop-up shops in major cities [5] Market Expansion - Qimengdao is capitalizing on international market potential, becoming a leading brand in the collectibles category on the North American TikTok Shop platform [7] - The company has successfully partnered with major sports events, such as the China Open Tennis Tournament, to enhance its brand visibility [7] - Qimengdao has engaged in strategic collaborations with various cultural and media organizations, further solidifying its brand value [7]

美国市场表现成为焦点，此前泡泡玛特在三季度财报中披露美国销售同比增长超1200%，令投资者对海 外扩张充满期待。 但最新迹象显示增长动能正在减弱。伯恩斯坦驻香港亚洲消费股分析师Melinda Hu指出，股价疲软"很 可能是受11月份北美线下销售趋势下滑推动"，她预计公司本季度美国销售增速将放缓至500%以下。 晨星分析师Jeff Zhang警告，潜在的美国销售疲软可能削弱市场对泡泡玛特增长的信心，海外销售势头 此前一直是投资者紧密追踪的关键指标。 泡泡玛特股价周一遭遇重挫，投资者对这家潮玩制造商在美国市场的增长势头产生疑虑。在公司此前公 布美国市场超预期增长后，市场正密切关注其销售动能能否维持。 周一，泡泡玛特港股盘中一度暴跌9%，为逾一个月最大跌幅，较8月高点累计回撤约40%。市场担忧其 在美国"黑五"促销期间的销售可能未达预期，打击了投资者信心。 股价承压之际，做空力量持续集聚。据标普全球数据，截至上周四，泡泡玛特的卖空股份已升至流通股 的6.3%，创2023年8月以来最高水平。 光大证券国际策略师Kenny Ng表示，投资者对泡泡玛特销售势头放缓存在担忧，同时卖方的一些谨慎 观点也打压了股价。 从增长1 ...

据悉，今年9月，TANWAN与成都模玩咖文化传播有限公司签订授权许可协议，获得了影片《THE GARFIELD MOVIE》(加菲猫家族)IP衍生品在大中华区(包括中国大陆及港澳台地区)手办、盲盒、雕 塑、积木、毛绒产品等非功能性潮玩立体物的五年的独家发行运营授权。 贪玩(09890)午后涨超12%，截至发稿，涨11.63%，报14.4港元，成交额6902.13万港元。 消息面上，贪玩近日宣布，附属与COEXIST集团签订《艺术家作品开发合作协议》，并整合逾二百名 顶流、中腰部及新锐潮玩艺术家，共同开展艺术作品的衍生品开发、销售及推广活动。此次合作，标志 着集团依托自身在数字娱乐领域的深厚积累，进一步拓展潮玩产业布局，完善业务生态，开启"经典 IP+艺术家IP"相融合的潮玩新篇章。 ...