Group 1 - Generation Z, as the "natives" of the internet and new consumption, increasingly values community identity and emotional expression, leading to the rise of emotional consumption where emotional connections are prioritized over storytelling [1] - The success of LABUBU is attributed to a combination of unique artistic design, effective commercial operation, scarcity in collectible value, viral social media marketing, celebrity influence, and alignment with Generation Z's psychology [2] - The company has established a closed-loop ecosystem centered around IP, utilizing blind boxes as an engine, data as a link, and community as the soil for growth, which enhances user retention and value accumulation [2] Group 2 - The company is accelerating its international expansion, aiming to transform its IP into a globally recognizable cultural symbol while exploring diversified business avenues such as theme parks and home decor to find new profit curves [2] - The shift from relying on cost advantages and scale to leveraging unique IP and emotional connections marks a significant transition in the global competition landscape for Chinese brands [3]

Core Insights - The rise of LABUBU reflects the growing popularity of trendy toys among young consumers, driven by emotional value and the healing economy [1][10] - The phenomenon has led to a surge in counterfeit products, highlighting the strong vitality of Chinese trendy toy IPs and their global influence [1][10] Group 1: Market Dynamics - LABUBU has become a top trendy toy, significantly boosting consumer enthusiasm, with high foot traffic observed in stores like the Pop Mart in Beijing [3][5] - The popularity of LABUBU has resulted in a shortage of genuine products, giving rise to counterfeit versions known as "LAFUFU," which are being actively marketed [5][6] - The market for trendy toys in China is estimated to be worth around 600 billion yuan, accounting for 20% of the global market, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 33% [13][14] Group 2: Intellectual Property Protection - The emergence of counterfeit products has prompted companies like Pop Mart to take defensive measures, such as registering trademarks for "LAFUFU" to protect their IP [6][9] - Pop Mart has registered over 1,500 copyrights and is involved in numerous legal disputes related to trademark and copyright infringements [7][9] - Customs authorities have intensified efforts to combat counterfeit LABUBU products, seizing over 38.67 million items in the first half of the year [9][10] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - LABUBU resonates with consumers aged 18 to 29, fulfilling their emotional and identity needs, as evidenced by personal stories of attachment to the product [10][12] - The design of LABUBU, characterized by its unique and imperfect features, appeals to consumers seeking authenticity and emotional connection [10][12] - The trend reflects a broader shift in consumer preferences towards emotional and spiritual fulfillment rather than mere material satisfaction [12][13] Group 4: Cultural Impact - The success of LABUBU signifies a shift in China's cultural narrative, moving from "Made in China" to "Created in China," showcasing the country's cultural and supply chain advantages [13][14] - LABUBU's global appeal has been recognized, with the character being awarded titles and gaining traction in international markets [13][14] - The growth of the trendy toy industry is indicative of China's rising cultural soft power and the increasing recognition of Chinese stories and designs worldwide [14][16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant rise in the popularity of the Chinese toy brand "Labubu" both domestically and internationally, highlighting the efforts of customs authorities in protecting intellectual property rights against counterfeit products [2][4]. Group 1: Trade and Market Insights - In the first four months of the year, China's exports of dolls and animal toys exceeded 13.31 billion yuan, marking a 9.6% increase [2]. - The surge in demand for "Labubu" has led to a notable increase in counterfeit products being seized at various ports [2][6]. Group 2: Intellectual Property Protection - Customs authorities have been actively involved in intellectual property protection since 1994, with a total of 11,000 batches and 38.675 million items suspected of infringement being seized in the first half of the year [2]. - The customs law allows for proactive inspections and detentions of suspected infringing goods at entry and exit points, supporting innovation and protecting intellectual property [2]. Group 3: Counterfeit Market Dynamics - The counterfeit "Labubu" products are often marketed on second-hand platforms with misleading labels such as "national version" and "high quality," typically sold at significantly lower prices [4]. - Customs has reported a high volume of smuggling cases involving counterfeit "Labubu" products across various regions, with Shanghai, Guangdong, and Zhejiang being hotspots for such activities [6][7]. Group 4: Enforcement Actions - Customs has been employing various methods to combat the smuggling of counterfeit products, including tracking and seizing large quantities of fake toys and related materials [7]. - Collaborative efforts with platforms like Amazon have led to the identification and apprehension of suppliers involved in the production and distribution of counterfeit "Labubu" products [7].

Core Points - In the first half of 2025, China's total goods trade import and export reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [1] - Exports amounted to 13 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2%, while imports were 8.79 trillion yuan, decreasing by 2.7% [1] Group 1: Trade Growth and Trends - The scale of foreign trade has shown stable growth, with the import and export volume maintaining above 20 trillion yuan, marking a historical high for the same period [1] - In the second quarter, the year-on-year growth of imports and exports accelerated to 4.5%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] - The number of foreign trade enterprises with import and export performance reached 628,000, surpassing 600,000 for the first time in history, an increase of 43,000 year-on-year [2] Group 2: Export Dynamics - The export of electromechanical products reached 7.8 trillion yuan, growing by 9.5%, accounting for 60% of total exports [2] - High-end equipment related to new productive forces saw growth exceeding 20%, while "new three types" products representing green and low-carbon growth increased by 12.7% [2] - The export of high-tech products grew by 9.2%, maintaining growth for nine consecutive months, with significant increases in high-end machine tools and marine engineering equipment [12] Group 3: Import Trends - Domestic demand expansion has stabilized imports, with significant growth in imports of petrochemical and textile machinery, as well as key electronic components [2] - The import volume of crude oil and metal ores increased, reflecting a recovery in demand [2] Group 4: Trade Relations - Trade with the United States saw a decline, with total trade value at 2.08 trillion yuan, down 9.3% year-on-year, influenced by "reciprocal tariffs" [3] - Despite challenges, trade with over 190 countries and regions increased, with significant growth in trade with Africa and Central Asia [4] Group 5: Regional Contributions - The five major provinces (Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Shandong) accounted for 64.1% of the national import and export total, growing by 4.8% year-on-year [13] - These provinces contributed nearly 60% of the national export increase [13] Group 6: Container Handling and Logistics - The container handling volume for water transport reached 67.41 million TEUs, an increase of 11.3% [9] - Innovations in regulatory models for import and export goods have been implemented to enhance efficiency [9] Group 7: Future Initiatives - China plans to implement zero tariffs for 53 African countries, aiming to leverage its large market for mutual development [10]

Group 1 - A Boeing 737 aircraft operated by WestJet Airlines experienced a small exhaust pipe fire while parked at Vancouver International Airport, leading to the evacuation of passengers without any reported injuries [2] - A Boeing 737-300 operated by Peace Airlines in Nigeria skidded off the runway during landing, but no damage occurred and all passengers were safe [3] Group 2 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange officially released new rules for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, detailing the criteria for recognizing qualified institutional investors [5] - The new guidelines include standards based on investment experience, compliance operations, investment duration, shareholding scale, and independence [5] Group 3 - SpaceX has agreed to invest $2 billion in xAI, an artificial intelligence startup founded by Elon Musk, marking one of SpaceX's largest external investments [6] Group 4 - Meituan's instant retail service reached a record high of 150 million orders, with an average delivery time of 34 minutes [21][22] Group 5 - This week, a total of 42 companies will have their restricted shares released, with a total market value exceeding 26 billion yuan, led by Tianyue Advanced, Maiwei Biology-U, and Baoli Food [23][24] - Two new stocks are set to be issued this week, with a total of approximately 90.73 million shares and expected fundraising of 1.236 billion yuan [26][27]

Group 1 - A Boeing 737 engine caught fire at Vancouver International Airport, leading to the evacuation of passengers without any reported injuries. The aircraft has been grounded for repairs, but airport operations remain unaffected [1] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has officially released new rules for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, detailing the criteria for recognizing senior professional institutional investors, which includes aspects like investment experience and compliance [2] - The U.S. Senate released a report indicating that a shooting incident at a Trump campaign rally was due to a series of avoidable security lapses, criticizing the Secret Service for its lack of discipline [3] Group 2 - Wang Yi, China's Foreign Minister, met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, emphasizing the strategic value of China-Russia relations and the importance of high-level exchanges [4] - China's Ministry of National Defense responded to Japan's claims of Chinese military aircraft approaching, asserting that their actions were legitimate and necessary for national security [5] - The Tarim Basin's 750 kV power transmission project has been completed, creating the largest ultra-high voltage ring network in China, covering an area of 1.06 million square kilometers [6] Group 3 - A nationwide heatwave is expected to peak in central and eastern China, with temperatures exceeding 40°C in some areas, while rainfall decreases in southern regions [7] - A tourist in Chongqing was fined and restricted from the industry for illegal solicitation, disrupting public order at a popular tourist site [8] - China's railway investment reached 355.9 billion yuan in the first half of the year, marking a 5.5% year-on-year increase [9] Group 4 - China's first primordial gravitational wave detection experiment has been completed, successfully capturing clear images of radiation from the Moon and Jupiter, marking a significant advancement in this field [10] - Ukrainian President Zelensky has confirmed the appointment of Yulia Svyrydenko as the new Prime Minister, with discussions on the new cabinet structure scheduled [12] - Elon Musk's SpaceX is set to invest $2 billion in his AI startup xAI, which constitutes a significant portion of the company's recent funding round [17] Group 5 - This week, 42 companies will have their restricted shares released, with a total market value exceeding 26 billion yuan, led by Tianyue Advanced and Maiwei Biological [18] - Two new stocks are set to be issued this week, with a total of approximately 90.73 million shares expected to raise 1.236 billion yuan [22]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The潮玩 (trendy toy) market is benefiting from macroeconomic development, with China's per capita GDP surpassing $12,000, shifting consumer spending from necessities to discretionary items, providing growth momentum for the潮玩 industry [1][2] - The IP toy market in China is projected to reach approximately 57.8 billion RMB by 2025, with an annual growth rate of about 20%, indicating a robust trend in the consumer sector [2] Core Insights and Arguments - IP toys account for about half of the sales in the潮玩 market, with blind boxes being the main driving force [1][2] - The rise of潮玩 brands is largely attributed to consumer-driven marketing, aesthetic appeal, third-party certification (such as going public), and social media dissemination, which reduces marketing costs and fosters a vibrant secondary market [1][4] - The core competitiveness of潮玩 includes aesthetic PUA (Pick Up Artist), third-party certification, and self-promotion, allowing brands like泡泡玛特 (Pop Mart) to attract young consumers and enhance brand credibility through unique designs and social attributes [1][5] Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - The purchase behavior of潮玩 and new consumer products is characterized by randomness, such as the uncertainty of obtaining rare cards or hidden items in blind boxes, which stimulates dopamine release and increases pleasure [8][9] - Blind boxes dominate the潮玩 market, accounting for over half of the sales due to their more appealing presentation compared to directly displayed products [8] Competitive Landscape -潮玩 companies can be categorized into three types: channel-based (e.g.,名创优品), third-party IP-based (e.g.,布鲁可, 卡游), and self-owned IP companies (e.g.,泡泡玛特). Self-owned IP companies are considered to have the most long-term value due to their rarity and sustainability [3][11][15] - Successful潮玩 brands like泡泡玛特 have gained credibility through third-party certification, unlike unsuccessful brands like暴力熊 (Bearbrick) and蒙奇奇 (Monchhichi), which lacked such validation [6][7] Additional Insights - The core competitiveness of self-owned IP companies lies in their ability to sustain operations, which determines whether an IP can remain relevant and profitable over time [13] - Companies using third-party IP for product sales can achieve growth by enhancing their operational and channel capabilities, focusing on exclusive IP acquisition to avoid homogenization and ensure profitability [14]

研究报告 Research Report 13 Jul 2025 餐饮、潮玩及家电行业周报 F&B, Designer Toys and Home Appliance Sector Weekly Report [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 评级 | 股票名称 | | 评级 | | 泡泡玛特 | Outperform 现代牧业 | | | Outperform | | 安踏体育 | Outperform 九毛九 | | | Outperform | | 百威亚太 | Neutral | 澳优 | | Outperform | | 华润啤酒 | Outperform | | | | | 华住酒店集团有限 | Outperform | | | | | 公司 | | | | | | 海底捞 | Outperform | | | | | 康师傅 | Outperform | | | | | 名创优品 | Outperform | | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The return of everyday dining and the rise of home-cooked meals are significant trends, with the market for casual dining exceeding 1.2 trillion RMB, emphasizing high cost-performance [5][58] - The creator economy, particularly in the music streaming sector, is experiencing stable growth, with platforms enhancing their bargaining power through non-music content [22][24] - The casual dining market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.1% from 2023 to 2028, reaching 55.87 billion RMB by 2028 [56][58] Summary by Sections 1. Trend in Casual Dining - The average spending on Chinese dining has decreased from 87.6 RMB in 2023 to 79.2 RMB in 2024, a decline of 9.6% [53][55] - The casual dining market is characterized by a shift towards high cost-performance and practicality, with a significant increase in home cooking frequency [53][56] - The market for affordable casual dining (under 100 RMB per meal) is the largest segment, accounting for 88.7% of the total dining market, with a current size of 36.18 billion RMB [56][58] 2. Creator Economy and Music Streaming - The global music streaming market is projected to reach over 20.4 billion USD in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.3% [27][30] - Subscription users in the music streaming sector are expected to grow to 263 million in 2024, reflecting an increase of 11% year-on-year [30] - Spotify's market penetration in emerging markets is driving user growth, with a CAGR of 35% from 2021 to 2025 [26][30] 3. Trends in Toy and Creator Economy - The online sales of trendy toys in June 2025 reached 1.348 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 16% [12][14] - The sales of blind boxes and plush toys showed strong performance, with blind boxes growing by 109% year-on-year [12][13] - The creator economy is bolstered by the growth of non-music content, enhancing platforms' bargaining power [22][24] 4. Beauty and Personal Care Market - The skincare market on Tmall has seen a concentration increase, with the top 20 brands accounting for 46.2% of the total GMV [66] - Domestic brands have seen a decline in both quantity and market share, while international brands have experienced double-digit growth [66][67]

Industry Environment - Traditional luxury brands with similar aesthetics are being surpassed by more agile and culturally rooted competitors, facing a significant challenge in the global luxury market with an expected decline of 2%-5% in 2024 [1] - The luxury market is experiencing varied performance across regions, with the US and China showing weakness, while Europe remains stable and the Middle East and Southeast Asia demonstrate resilience [1] - Brands are responding to market challenges through innovation, diverse experiences, and entry-level products, emphasizing the need for creativity, technology, and customer relationships to attract younger consumers [1] Emotional Economy - The popularity of Labubu highlights the potential of the emotional economy in the toy market, with projected sales exceeding 3 billion yuan in 2024 [2] - There is a growing focus on the emotional needs of the elderly, with a significant increase in searches and sales for senior-friendly toys, reflecting demands for social interaction and cognitive training [2] - The senior toy market is moving towards standardization and technological innovation, aiming to foster intergenerational emotional connections and enhance the well-being of older adults [2] Outdoor Sports - Outdoor sports are becoming increasingly popular among young people, with a surge in sales of related products on e-commerce platforms [3] - The 95 post-90s generation participates in outdoor activities to relieve stress and connect with nature, pushing the industry from niche to mainstream [3] - Despite potential market bubbles, the outdoor equipment market is projected to reach 65.93 billion yuan by 2030, necessitating a balance between marketing and product development for sustainable growth [3] Fashion Trends - The shift from loose silhouettes to fitted tailoring is evident in Martine Rose's spring/summer collection, inspired by childhood experiences and retro styles [4] - The fashion industry is returning to traditional fitted designs to address creative stagnation, with brands like Acne Studios and Saint Laurent also emphasizing tailored cuts [4] Luxury Goods Market - During the Tmall 618 shopping festival, luxury brands saw significant growth, with Tmall's GMV increasing by 10% year-on-year and luxury goods outperforming other categories [5] - The platform's initiatives, such as the "Red Cat Plan," have driven traffic and doubled brand sales through live streaming and AI technology [5] Footwear Market - High-priced running shoes have become a status symbol among China's middle class, serving both health and social purposes [6] - As consumers become more price-conscious, the market is seeing increased competition, necessitating a return to value and technological innovation for sustained growth [6] Brand Communication - Luxury brands like LOEWE and Balenciaga are enhancing their brand narratives through immersive experiences and deep content storytelling in response to fragmented online communication [7] - These brands are leveraging social media to create cohesive content matrices that improve communication efficiency and meet consumer expectations for depth and sincerity [7] Men's Fashion Trends - The Pitti Uomo men's fashion exhibition highlighted the influence of cycling and active lifestyles on men's fashion, showcasing brands that emphasize lightness, functionality, and comfort [8] - Emerging brands are focusing on innovation and sustainability, reflecting a shift in design inspiration towards diverse athletic scenarios [8] Sunscreen Market - The sunscreen clothing market is experiencing rapid growth, projected to reach 95.8 billion yuan by 2026, despite issues like misleading UPF ratings and quality concerns [9] - As consumers become more discerning, brands must focus on genuine needs and improve product quality to succeed in a competitive landscape [9] Toy Industry - The toy industry is evolving with the rise of emotional consumption, as seen in the success of Labubu and the increasing interest in collectible blind boxes [10][11] - The market is becoming more concentrated, with leading companies like 52TOYS and TOPTOY accelerating their development, while the sustainability of industry hype remains in question [10][11] Footwear Trends - Barefoot shoes are gaining popularity as a niche category in the sports shoe market, aligning with the trend of returning to nature and healthy living [12] - Despite challenges like product homogeneity, future winners in this space will rely on technological development and community engagement to convert concepts into value [12] FIFA's Fashion Venture - FIFA is launching its own high-end fashion brand, FIFA1904, in collaboration with VFiles, aiming to expand its cultural influence and revenue streams [13] - This move reflects FIFA's strategy to diversify its commercial operations ahead of the 2030 World Cup, despite concerns over market positioning and identity compliance [13] Women's Sportswear - The sizing of women's sportswear is causing new body image anxieties, with a shortage of larger sizes in the domestic market [14] - Brands are encouraged to address diverse body types and provide more inclusive sizing options to meet the evolving consumer demands [14] Brand Developments - Non-Fungible Group appointed Victor Herrero as co-CEO, reflecting a strategic focus on brand transformation and supply chain management [15] - The new store opening for "Benlai" in Shanghai emphasizes sustainable fashion and community engagement through art installations and eco-friendly initiatives [16] Gender-Neutral Fashion - HOPE brand promotes gender fluidity through its "Style Before Gender" philosophy, focusing on timeless designs and practical aesthetics [25] - The brand's latest collection merges narrative and functionality, establishing itself as a benchmark in Swedish fashion [25]