炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 作者丨叶麦穗 编辑丨包芳鸣 白银成为今年"领涨先锋"，年内累计涨幅逼近120%，特别是从下半年开始呈现加速上涨态势。 截至12月11日16：20，现货白银价格突破62美元/盎司，盘中最高至62.884美元/盎司，再度刷新历史新 高。与此同时，COMEX白银盘中突破63美元/盎司，一度摸高63.25美元/盎司；上海期货交易所的白银 主力合约价格最高涨至14655元/千克，涨幅超过5%，上述两个品种价格也刷新历史新高。至此，白银 也成为今年顶流投资品之一。 截至北京时间11日19：25左右，现货白银报62.386 美元/盎司。 年度涨幅近120% 最新消息显示，美联储决定将基准利率下调25个基点至3.50%—3.75%区间，为年内连续第三次降息， 年内累计已下调75基点。美联储主席鲍威尔在会后的新闻发布会上表示，美联储将 "观望" 后再采取进 一步行动，但基本排除加息可能。 白银通常与黄金同向波动，但由于其市场规模更小，对美元的变化更为敏感，波动性也更强。由于白银 的价格远低于黄金，吸引了寻求更低成本避险资产的投资者，同时在工业领域的应用也 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver has emerged as a leading investment asset in 2023, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 120%, particularly accelerating in the second half of the year [3][4]. Price Movements - As of December 11, 2023, the spot silver price surpassed $62 per ounce, reaching a high of $62.884 per ounce, marking a new historical peak [1][2]. - COMEX silver also broke through $63 per ounce, hitting a peak of $63.25 per ounce, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange silver contract reached a high of 14,655 yuan per kilogram, with an increase of over 5% [1][4]. Market Drivers - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75% has been a significant factor, marking the third consecutive rate cut this year, totaling a 75 basis point reduction [4]. - Analysts suggest that strong industrial demand for silver, particularly in sectors like AI servers, photovoltaics, and electric vehicles, is driving prices higher [5][6]. Supply and Demand Outlook - The Silver Institute predicts a structural supply deficit of approximately 95 million ounces in the global silver market by 2025, continuing a trend of supply shortages for the fifth consecutive year [8]. - Demand from the photovoltaic industry is expected to significantly increase, with the International Energy Agency forecasting an addition of 4000 GW of solar capacity from 2024 to 2030, potentially raising silver demand by nearly 150 million ounces annually [8]. Future Market Expectations - Analysts anticipate that silver prices will continue to experience strong fluctuations due to investor sensitivity to news and data, especially after a substantial increase of nearly 120% this year [8]. - Despite potential short-term volatility, the long-term outlook for silver remains bullish, supported by macroeconomic factors such as geopolitical tensions and uncertainties in global economic policies [9].

Core Viewpoint - The renewable energy sector is experiencing significant growth, with various sub-sectors such as energy storage, controllable nuclear fusion, ultra-high voltage, and photovoltaic equipment showing strong performance in the market [1][4][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - Renewable energy concept stocks surged in the morning session, with the wind power equipment sector leading the gains, and the sector index rising over 3% [4]. - The A-share market showed slight fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index around 3882.72, down 0.46%, and the ChiNext Index slightly up by 0.30% [2][3]. - Over 4300 stocks declined, but trading volume remained stable [1]. Group 2: Sector Highlights - The energy storage, controllable nuclear fusion, ultra-high voltage, and photovoltaic equipment sectors also saw significant increases, with companies like Xingyuan Environment hitting a 20% limit up shortly after opening [6][9]. - The global wind energy council predicts that by 2030, the global wind power installed capacity is expected to reach 981 GW, with an annual addition of 164 GW, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 8.8% [8]. - The International Energy Agency states that by 2030, new photovoltaic installations will account for 70% of all new power sources, driven by declining costs and emerging markets [9]. Group 3: Storage and Silver Market Insights - In the storage sector, domestic installations reached 31.77 GW/85.11 GWh in the first three quarters of 2025, maintaining a high growth rate of 19.3% (power) and 28.41% (capacity) year-on-year [9]. - The silver market is also experiencing a surge, with international silver prices recently breaking $62 per ounce, marking a significant increase of over 114% this year [10]. - The World Silver Association highlights the growing demand for silver in digitalization and AI applications, as well as in solar energy and electric vehicles, indicating its critical role in high-growth industries [10].

Core Viewpoint - The renewable energy sector is experiencing significant growth, with various sub-sectors such as energy storage, controllable nuclear fusion, ultra-high voltage, and photovoltaic equipment showing strong performance in the market [1][3][5]. Renewable Energy Sector - Renewable energy concept stocks surged in the morning session, particularly in wind power equipment, which led the gains with the sector index rising over 3% [3]. - Major companies like Goldwind Technology and others saw substantial increases, with Goldwind hitting the daily limit [3][5]. - The global wind energy council predicts that by 2030, the global wind power installed capacity is expected to reach 981 GW, with an annual addition of 164 GW, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 8.8% [7]. Photovoltaic and Energy Storage - The International Energy Agency states that by 2030, new photovoltaic installations will account for 70% of all new power sources, driven by declining costs and emerging markets [8]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic energy storage installations in China reached 31.77 GW/85.11 GWh, maintaining a high growth rate with a year-on-year increase of 19.3% in power and 28.41% in capacity [8]. - The market for energy storage is expected to exceed expectations, with significant orders being signed for large-scale storage projects [8]. Precious Metals Sector - Precious metal stocks opened strongly, with the sector index rising over 3% in the morning [9]. - The international silver price has recently surged, with the London silver spot price exceeding $62 per ounce, marking a historical high and a year-to-date increase of over 114% [9]. - The World Silver Association highlights the growing demand for silver in digitalization and artificial intelligence applications, as well as in solar energy and electric vehicles, indicating its critical role in high-growth industries [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in silver prices, which have reached a ten-year high following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, with a year-to-date increase of over 116% [2][3]. Group 1: Reasons for Silver Price Increase - The rise in silver prices from late November to early December is attributed to renewed expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and low inventory levels at the London Metal Exchange (LME) [6]. - From December last year to March this year, concerns over U.S. government tariff policies led to a significant outflow of silver from Europe to the U.S., resulting in a 16% decrease in LME silver inventory, totaling 4,330 tons [6]. - The influx of funds into silver ETFs has created a situation where LME inventories are insufficient to meet ETF demand, leading to a "short squeeze" in the London silver market [6]. - The current silver price increase is driven by both supply-demand dynamics and market sentiment, with the photovoltaic industry being a major demand driver, increasing its share of total silver demand from 8.1% in 2021 to 17% in 2024 [7]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global mined silver production is projected to be 820 million ounces in 2024, significantly lower than historical peaks, with supply constraints due to silver being a byproduct of other metals [7]. - The silver market has experienced a supply deficit for five consecutive years, leading to a substantial decline in inventories [7]. - The U.S. has classified silver as a critical mineral, heightening supply chain concerns and exacerbating market tensions due to increased hoarding behavior among traders [7]. Group 3: Differences from Previous Price Surges - The current silver market differs from past surges in 1980 and 2011, as the strategic resource status of silver has been reinforced by U.S. tariff and resource policies [9]. - The U.S. Geological Survey added silver to its list of critical minerals in November 2023, indicating potential policy risks that could impact physical silver trade and regional inventory management [9]. - Unlike previous surges driven by speculative behavior or lack of industrial demand, the current increase is supported by a combination of supply-demand imbalance, policy easing, and robust industrial demand, particularly from the photovoltaic sector [10]. Group 4: Short-term and Mid-term Outlook - Analysts express a cautious short-term outlook due to potential volatility in silver prices, driven by speculative trading, while maintaining a positive mid-term view based on fundamental factors [12]. - The silver market is expected to experience high volatility, with the potential for significant price fluctuations, especially if the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts do not meet expectations or if there is a slowdown in photovoltaic installations [12]. - Despite the current high gold-silver ratio of around 70, which is above historical averages, there remains potential for silver price appreciation due to ongoing supply-demand gaps [13].

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged to a ten-year high following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 116%, raising concerns of a potential market crash similar to past events in 1980 and 2011, but analysts believe the current market dynamics are fundamentally different [1][3]. Group 1: Reasons for Silver Price Increase - The recent rise in silver prices is attributed to renewed expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and low inventory levels at the London Metal Exchange (LME) [3]. - From December last year to early this year, silver moved from Europe to the U.S. due to tariff concerns, resulting in a 16% decrease in LME silver inventory, totaling 4,330 tons [3]. - The influx of funds into silver ETFs has led to a situation where LME inventories are insufficient to meet demand, contributing to upward pressure on silver prices [3][4]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry has become the strongest driver of silver demand, increasing its share from 8.1% in 2021 to an expected 17% in 2024 [4]. - Industrial demand for silver is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 6.5% from 2021 to 2024, driven by applications in high-tech sectors such as electric vehicles and AI [4]. - Global silver production is expected to decline to 820 million ounces in 2024, significantly below historical peaks, exacerbating supply shortages [4]. Group 3: Differences from Previous Price Surges - The current silver market is characterized by a strategic resource attribute due to U.S. government policies, marking a significant difference from past surges [6]. - The U.S. Geological Survey has included silver in its list of critical minerals, indicating heightened policy risks compared to gold, which may impact physical silver trade and regional inventory management [6][7]. - Unlike the speculative-driven surges of 1980 and 2011, the current rise is supported by supply-demand imbalances and robust industrial demand, particularly from the photovoltaic sector [7]. Group 4: Short-term and Mid-term Outlook - Analysts express caution regarding short-term volatility in silver prices, suggesting that speculative trading may amplify price fluctuations [9]. - Despite short-term risks, the medium-term outlook remains optimistic, with expectations of continued demand from precious metal ETFs and a supportive supply-demand dynamic [9][10]. - The silver price is anticipated to exhibit a high-volatility, stair-step upward trend, with ongoing supply shortages likely to sustain price support [10].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in silver prices, reaching a historical high of over $62 per ounce, is driven by a combination of factors including renewed expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and low inventory levels in the London market, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 116% [1][3][4]. Group 1: Price Dynamics - The price increase from late November to early December is attributed to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations and low silver inventory in London [5]. - The LBMA silver inventory decreased by 4,330 tons (16%) from December last year to March this year due to concerns over U.S. tariff policies, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [5]. - Despite a recent increase of approximately 2,605 tons in LBMA silver inventory, it remains insufficient to meet ETF demand, contributing to upward pressure on silver prices [5]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Factors - The photovoltaic industry has become the strongest driver of silver demand, increasing its share from 8.1% in 2021 to 17% in 2024, with industrial demand expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 6.5% from 2021 to 2024 [6]. - Global silver production is projected to be 820 million ounces in 2024, significantly lower than historical peaks, with supply constraints exacerbated by the long investment cycles in mining [6]. - The U.S. has classified silver as a critical mineral, intensifying supply chain concerns and leading to increased hoarding behavior among traders [6]. Group 3: Comparison with Historical Trends - The current silver price surge differs from past spikes in 1980 and 2011, as it is supported by fundamental supply-demand dynamics rather than speculative trading [7][8]. - The strategic resource status of silver has been reinforced by U.S. policies, particularly under the Trump administration, which may pose greater risks to physical silver trade compared to gold [7]. - Unlike previous surges driven by speculative behavior, the current increase is characterized by a combination of supply constraints, policy easing, and robust industrial demand [8]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts maintain a positive medium-term outlook for silver prices, despite short-term volatility risks due to speculative trading [10]. - The silver market is expected to experience high volatility, with potential for price corrections if the Federal Reserve's actions do not meet expectations or if solar installation rates slow down [10]. - The long-term trend for silver remains bullish, supported by persistent supply-demand gaps and the potential for further price increases [11].

Core Insights - Silver prices have surged significantly, with a 16% increase in November and a recent breakthrough of $60 per ounce, driven by strong buying interest in the market [1][2] - The year-to-date increase in silver prices has exceeded 110%, with the latest London spot silver price at $60.82 per ounce [2][3] Market Dynamics - The recent structural squeeze in the silver market has led to new price highs, supported by increased financial allocation demand and robust industrial application expectations [3][4] - The financial demand for silver has been bolstered by market volatility ahead of Federal Reserve policy decisions, with significant inflows into silver ETFs and related financial products [3][4] - Industrial demand for silver is expected to strengthen due to advancements in AI, renewable energy, and electronics, particularly in solar and electric vehicle sectors [3][4] ETF and Investment Trends - Global silver ETF holdings have shown steady growth, indicating increased allocation by both institutional and individual investors, with the largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, holding 15,973.16 tons as of December 9, reflecting a 6% increase from the previous month [4] - The recent price surge has attracted significant capital, leading to premium risks in related silver funds, with some funds trading at premiums exceeding 10% [6] Regulatory Actions - To mitigate excessive speculation and market risks, the Shanghai Futures Exchange has adjusted margin requirements and price limits for silver futures contracts [1][6] - The exchange's dual approach of increasing margins and price limits aims to promote rational trading and prevent short-term volatility [6] Supply and Inventory Concerns - Global silver inventories are at historically low levels, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory down by over 50% year-to-date [6] - The London Metal Exchange's silver inventory has decreased by approximately 75% from its peak in 2019, exacerbating liquidity risks [6]

智通财经APP获悉，由于交易员押注美联储将进一步放宽货币政策且供应持续紧张，现货白银在周二突破60美元/盎司这一重要关口后于周三延续涨 势，再度刷新纪录高位。截至发稿，现货白银涨逾1%，报61.30美元/盎司。 多重因素推动白银强势上涨 白银价格今年迄今已上涨逾一倍。作为对比，尽管黄金今年也上涨了60%并突破4200美元大关，但在涨幅力度上仍逊色于白银。这导致金银比价降 至70倍以下，为2021年7月以来首次。 在白银今年上涨逾一倍的同时，也有一些人担忧，白银在如此大幅的上涨之后将走向令人失望的结局。这些看跌情绪基于历史经验，毕竟在1980年 和2011年两度创下纪录高位后，白银曾随后迅速暴跌。 资深策略师Mike McGlone上周表示，白银今年价格翻倍的惊人涨势"有些令人不安"。他指出，鉴于白银的高波动性，其价格可能飙升至每盎司75美 元，也可能回落至每盎司40美元。他指出，白银历来容易出现极端涨势——当前价格已比其五年平均水平高出83%——而从历史来看，这种涨势往 往结局不佳。他警告称，白银年市场波动率约为30%，这意味着明年价格若出现一个标准差的波动，就可能推动白银涨至每盎司75美元的高位，或 跌至每 ...

消息面上，12月10日，现货白银向上触及61美元/盎司，再创历史新高。值得一提的是，今年以来，白 银涨幅已接近110%，表现远超黄金和铂金。目前市场普遍押注美联储将在本周三结束的会议上宣布降 息25个基点。此外，南华期货研究院高级总监周骥分析称，白银兼具工业属性，光伏用银量占全球需求 比重的上升、AI算力服务器用银量较传统设备的增加，使工业刚需爆发形成强支撑。 本文源自：智通财经网 智通财经获悉，中国白银集团(00815)涨近6%，截至发稿，涨5.97%，报0.71港元，成交额742.68万港 元。 ...