Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to a significant increase in gold prices, rising from 3400 to 3446, driven primarily by market sentiment and news events [2][3] - The gold market is expected to maintain a bullish trend, with key support levels at 3420 and 3380, indicating that as long as these levels hold, the bullish sentiment will persist [4] - The strategy for the upcoming week is to remain bullish on gold, focusing on low-entry positions while avoiding chasing highs, with a target of 3500 if the geopolitical situation escalates [2][5] Group 2: Silver Market Outlook - The silver market has shown a correction after reaching a peak of 37, with a recommendation to avoid chasing highs and consider light short positions around 36.5 [6] - The support level for silver is identified at 35.2, and a break below this level could indicate a shift in market sentiment [6] - Domestic silver prices should not be pursued above 9000, with a suggestion to consider short positions above 8900 to capture potential adjustments [6] Group 3: Oil Market Trends - The oil market has been on a strong upward trend, reaching a high of 77.5, with expectations for continued bullish momentum [7] - Key support levels for oil are set at 72 and 68, with a strategy to buy on dips as long as these levels hold [7] - Domestic fuel oil has also shown bullish behavior, with a recommendation to maintain long positions, targeting new highs above 3200 [7]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical tensions and the decline of the US dollar index have led to a strong performance in gold prices, with COMEX gold rising 3.65% to $3,452.60 per ounce this week [23][25] - The market is increasingly pricing in the possibility of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with expectations of two cuts this year, the first likely in September [3][43] - The uncertainty in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran and Israel, is contributing to a shift towards safe-haven assets like gold and silver [5][17] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - COMEX silver increased by 0.66% to $36.37 per ounce, while SHFE gold rose 1.42% to ¥794.36 per gram [23][25] - SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 201,954.41 troy ounces, while SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 1,090,806.40 ounces [25] - The gold-silver ratio rose by 2.97% to 94.93 this week [25] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper fell 0.24% to $9,647.50 per ton, while aluminum rose 2.10% to $2,503.00 per ton [49] - SHFE copper decreased by 1.17% to ¥78,010.00 per ton, and aluminum increased by 1.84% to ¥20,440.00 per ton [49] - The supply of copper is expected to tighten due to maintenance plans at domestic smelters and the ongoing geopolitical situation [7][8] Copper - The supply side is affected by a downward adjustment in the annual production forecast for the Kamoa-Kakula project and ongoing maintenance at the Cobre copper mine [7][44] - Domestic copper rod enterprises' weekly operating rate rose to 73.21%, but actual purchases are subdued due to high prices [7] - SHFE copper inventory decreased by 5.08% to 101,900 tons, while LME inventory fell by 13.54% to 114,500 tons [74] Aluminum - The aluminum industry operates at over 95% capacity, with minor maintenance plans causing limited supply disruptions [9][78] - Demand for aluminum products has softened, with a decrease in operating rates for various aluminum products [9][78] - SHFE aluminum inventory decreased by 6.91% to 110,000 tons, while LME inventory fell by 2.92% to 353,200 tons [11][78] Zinc - Zinc prices are under pressure due to weak demand, with domestic zinc ore processing fees rising [79] - SHFE zinc inventory decreased by 3.29% to 45,466 tons, while LME inventory fell by 4.36% to 131,000 tons [79]

Group 1 - Israel launched attacks on multiple targets in Iran, causing global stock indices to decline, with WTI crude oil futures surging nearly 14% and COMEX gold futures rising by 2% [1] - A-shares closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.75%, the Shenzhen Component down 1.10%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.13%. Sectors such as gold, oil, nuclear pollution prevention, and military industry saw significant gains [1] - The 62nd session of the "Digging Gold" competition concluded, with the champion achieving a return of 55.64%, the runner-up 48.48%, and the third place 46.61%. Participants capitalized on opportunities in blockchain, rare earth permanent magnets, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1][3] Group 2 - The competition is currently in a structural market phase, and participants can join a competition group to exchange valuable information and market insights [2] - The champion's successful investments included medical beauty stocks, agricultural chemicals, and rare earth permanent magnets, indicating strong market trend awareness [5] - Participants utilized "Fire Line Quick Review" to identify opportunities in innovative pharmaceuticals and silver sectors, with notable stocks performing well [6][8] Group 3 - The upcoming 63rd session of the competition will allow participants to simulate trading with a virtual capital of 500,000 yuan, with registration from June 14 to June 20 and the competition running from June 16 to June 20 [9] - Weekly cash rewards are available for positive returns, with the first place receiving 688 yuan and subsequent places receiving varying amounts [9][10] - Participants can gain access to "Fire Line Quick Review" for five days upon successful registration, with additional benefits for top performers [12]

Group 1: Price Performance - The latest price of London Gold is 3391.40 with a change of 61.70 [1] - The latest price of London Silver is 36.18 with a change of -0.02 [1] - The latest price of London Platinum is 1269.00 with a change of 51.00 [1] - The latest price of London Palladium is 1072.00 with a change of 10.00 [1] - The latest price of LME Copper is 9680.00 with a change of -97.50 [1] Group 2: Trading Data - The latest trading data for certain items are - (not specified), 1226.15, 937.91, 14729.08, 1347.54, 2, 2 respectively [1] - The changes in trading data are - (not specified), -3.67, 3.72, 0.00, 0.00, 1.00, 0.00 respectively [1] Group 3: Precious Metal Ratios and Related Information - Information about COMEX silver inventory,上期所白银库存, gold ETF持仓, silver ETF持仓, 上金所白银库存, 上金所黄金递延费支付方向, 上金所白银递延费支付方向 is presented but specific values are not fully shown [1] - The report also mentions升贴水、库存、ETF持仓变化 [2] Group 4: Data Source - The data in the report is sourced from Bloomberg, Yong'an Yuandian Information, and Wind [3]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index is struggling to maintain the 3400-point level, with significant support from major financial institutions such as banks, brokerages, and insurance companies [1] - Market sentiment remains cautious, with trading volumes not keeping pace, leading to increased volatility and sector rotation among hot sectors like innovative drugs, CPO, IP economy, precious metals, rare earth permanent magnets, and automotive parts [1] Key News - Ant Group concept stocks surged in Hong Kong, with Yunfeng Financial rising by 100% at one point and closing up approximately 60%, following news that Ant Group plans to apply for stablecoin licenses in Singapore and Hong Kong [2] - The innovative drug sector continues to rise, with stock prices increasing while price-to-earnings ratios are decreasing, indicating a potential value reassessment as corporate earnings growth outpaces stock price increases [2][4] Precious Metals - Gold stocks in A-shares experienced a sudden surge, with Hengbang Co. and Chaohongji both hitting the daily limit, driven by heightened demand for gold as a safe haven amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [4] - Platinum and silver have also seen significant price increases, with platinum rising nearly 40% this year, surpassing gold's performance, and silver reaching a 13-year high above $36 per ounce [4][5] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand structure for platinum shows that 40% is used in automotive catalysts, 25% in jewelry, 20% for industrial purposes, and 9% for investment [6] - Silver's demand structure indicates that industrial demand accounts for 58.5%, jewelry for 17.9%, investment for 16.4%, and other uses for the remainder [7] - The supply-demand gap for platinum is expected to widen, with the World Platinum Investment Council projecting the lowest total supply in five years by 2025, while investment demand is significantly increasing [8] - The global industrial demand for silver is anticipated to exceed 55% by the end of 2025, with a projected supply gap of 8,800 tons, driven by the energy revolution and technological advancements [8] Investment Implications - The rise of white metals like silver and platinum is expected to boost the precious metals sector, with companies involved in the silver and platinum supply chain likely to benefit from this trend [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Global market shows a differentiated pattern, with the Fed's rate - cut expectations constrained by inflation resilience and the ECB hinting at the end of the easing cycle. The equity market is supported by loose funds, but external disturbances and volume - energy sustainability should be watched [3]. - Crude oil may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but its upside is limited in the long - term without major geopolitical impacts on supply [4]. - Gold is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation, and investors should pay attention to US CPI, PPI data, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting [5][6]. - Silver will maintain a high - level oscillation, and US inflation data will affect its short - term direction [7]. - Most chemical products are expected to have a weak or bearish short - term trend, with supply - demand contradictions and inventory changes being important influencing factors [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16]. - Rubber may have a weak rebound after the short - term negative factors are realized, but it is still affected by the oversupply situation [17][18]. - Methanol's futures price is in an oscillation range, and the progress of Sino - US negotiations and macro sentiment should be watched [19]. - Agricultural products show different trends. Corn may oscillate in the short - term, peanuts may decline slightly but have limited downside, cotton may be strong in the short - term, and the prices of other agricultural products are also affected by supply - demand and seasonal factors [20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31]. - Metal prices have different trends. Copper may touch the bubble price line, aluminum may oscillate in a range, alumina shows a weak adjustment, and other metals are also affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and global economic situation [32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - Black metal products' prices also vary. Stainless steel may oscillate at a low level, and steel products like rebar and hot - rolled coil can be considered for light - position long positions at low prices, while iron ore and coal may oscillate in the short - term [41][42][43][44][45][46] Summary by Industry Macro - Index - Market analysis: Global markets are differentiated. The Fed's rate - cut expectations are constrained, and the ECB hints at the end of the easing cycle. The central bank maintains a "broad credit, stable currency" policy. The equity market is supported by loose funds, with capital flowing to non - banking finance and technology sectors. Index futures show short - covering and a decline in the PCR indicator [3]. - Reference view: Pay attention to Sino - US negotiations and the Fed's policy implementation. Short - term holding along the 5 - day moving average is advisable. Be wary of the risk of insufficient volume energy [3]. Crude Oil - Macro and geopolitics: The second - round Sino - US negotiations reach a "framework agreement in principle," and the oil price may oscillate strongly. Focus on the key level of $65 per barrel for WTI [4]. - Market analysis: OPEC lowers global demand growth forecasts, and US policies cause concerns about demand. Although US crude oil inventories decline, refined product inventories increase. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East increase supply uncertainty, and OPEC+ plans to increase production [4]. - Reference view: Watch whether WTI can break through $65 per barrel in the short - term. In the long - term, the upside is limited without major geopolitical impacts [4]. Gold - Macro and geopolitics: US economic resilience pressures short - term gold prices, but multiple factors support it in the long - term. Policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks limit the downside space, and the Fed's policy also affects the price [5]. - Market analysis: Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold futures warehouse receipts are stable with a slight increase. The spot price has a discount compared to the futures price [6]. - Operation suggestion: Gold is expected to oscillate. Investors should watch US CPI, PPI data, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting [6]. Silver - Market price: On June 11, the international spot silver price oscillated narrowly [7]. - Market analysis: Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver futures warehouse receipts increased significantly. Global economic growth expectations are lowered, and trade tensions ease, reducing the safe - haven demand for silver [7]. - Operation suggestion: Silver will maintain a high - level oscillation. Pay attention to US inflation data [7]. Chemicals PTA - Spot information: The East China spot price decreased, and the basis is positive [8]. - Market analysis: Oil price fluctuations affect PTA costs. PTA device maintenance and restart coexist, with an overall increase in the operating rate and a decrease in inventory days. Polyester and textile loads decline, and weak orders may intensify supply - demand contradictions [8]. - Reference view: It may oscillate bearishly in the short - term [8]. Ethylene Glycol - Spot information: The East China spot price is flat, and the basis is positive [9]. - Market analysis: The supply side shows a slight decline in the overall operating rate and an increase in coal - based production. Demand is weak due to the off - season. Inventories in the East China main port increase, and future arrivals may limit the upside [9]. - Reference view: The price may be under pressure and oscillate in the short - term [9]. PVC - Spot information: The East China 5 - type PVC spot price increased, and the ethylene - calcium price difference decreased [10][11]. - Market analysis: The production capacity utilization rate increased, but downstream demand is still weak. Inventories decreased. The futures price oscillated at a low level without significant fundamental improvement [10][11]. - Reference view: The fundamentals are weak, and the futures price will oscillate at a low level [11]. PP - Spot market: The spot prices in different regions fluctuate slightly [12]. - Market analysis: The production capacity utilization rate increased, and production volume rose. Demand is in the off - season, and downstream orders decreased. Inventories of production enterprises increased. The futures price oscillated at a low level [12]. - Reference view: Demand is weak, and the futures price may oscillate at a low level [13]. Plastic - Spot market: The spot prices in different regions have different changes [14]. - Market analysis: The production capacity utilization rate increased slightly. The downstream average operating rate changed little. Inventories of production enterprises increased. The futures price may oscillate [14]. - Reference view: The fundamentals are weak, and the futures price may oscillate in the short - term [14]. Soda Ash - Spot information: The heavy - soda prices in different regions are stable [15]. - Market analysis: The overall operating rate and production volume increased. Factory inventories increased slightly, and social inventories decreased. Demand is average, and the market lacks new drivers [15]. - Reference view: The futures price is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [15]. Glass - Spot information: The 5mm glass prices in different regions are stable [16]. - Market analysis: The operating rate and production volume decreased slightly. Inventories increased, and demand is weak. The futures price may oscillate weakly in the short - term [16]. - Reference view: The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [16]. Rubber - Market price: The prices of different types of rubber and raw materials are provided [17]. - Market analysis: Sino - US trade negotiations and typhoons affect the price. The supply is abundant as domestic and Southeast Asian rubber trees are in the tapping season. Downstream tire operating rates decline, and trade - war concerns suppress demand, but there is a rebound expectation after the negative factors are realized [17]. - Reference view: Pay attention to downstream operating rates. It may start a weak rebound after short - term negative factors are realized [18]. Methanol - Spot information: The East China spot price increased, and prices in other regions vary [19]. - Market analysis: The futures price increased slightly. Port inventories increased. Supply pressure is high, and demand from MTO devices recovers, while traditional downstream demand is in the off - season [19]. - Reference view: The futures price is in an oscillation range. Watch Sino - US negotiations and macro sentiment [19]. Agricultural Products Corn - Spot information: Corn purchase prices in different regions are provided [20]. - Market analysis: Good weather in US corn - growing areas and Sino - US trade relations affect imports. The domestic market is in the transition period between old and new grains, with tight supply in the short - term. Wheat substitution and weather are key factors. Downstream demand is weak [20][21]. - Reference view: The corn futures price may oscillate between 2300 - 2400 yuan/ton in the short - term [21]. Peanut - Spot price: Peanut prices in different regions are provided [22]. - Market analysis: The domestic peanut planting area is expected to increase in 2025. The market is in the inventory - consumption period, with low imports and low inventory levels. Demand is in the off - season, but low inventories may support the price [22]. - Reference view: The peanut price may decline slightly in the short - term, but the downside is limited. Band - trading is advisable [22]. Cotton - Spot information: The Chinese cotton spot price index and Xinjiang cotton arrival price are provided [23]. - Market analysis: Sino - US relations ease, boosting the market. In the long - term, cotton supply is expected to be abundant. In the short - term, low imports and low commercial inventories support the price, but downstream demand is weak [23]. - Reference view: The cotton price may be strong in the short - term. Watch whether it can fill the previous gap [23]. Pig - Spot market: The average price of live pigs in major production and sales areas increased slightly [24]. - Market analysis: Farmers resist low - price sales, reducing supply. Demand is weak due to warm weather, and terminal consumption lacks improvement [24]. - Reference view: The live - pig futures price may oscillate weakly. Watch the slaughter situation [24]. Egg - Spot market: The national average egg price is stable [25]. - Market analysis: Farmers' enthusiasm for replenishing chickens decreases, and old - hen culling increases, supporting the price. Demand may increase in the tourism and catering industries during the summer vacation, but the plum - rain season suppresses consumption [25]. - Reference view: The egg futures price is undervalued. It is advisable to wait and see [25]. Rapeseed Meal - Spot market: The rapeseed meal price in Fangchenggang increased [27]. - Market analysis: Domestic and near - term imported rapeseed supplies are abundant, while far - term imports are tight. Demand is weak due to a small price difference with soybean meal and the off - season. Watch Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade relations [27]. - Reference view: Watch the performance of rapeseed meal futures at the upper pressure level [27]. Rapeseed Oil - Spot market: The rapeseed oil price in Fangchenggang is stable [28]. - Market analysis: Domestic and near - term imported rapeseed supplies are abundant, while far - term imports are tight. Demand is neutral, and inventories may remain high in the short - to - medium - term [28]. - Reference view: The rapeseed oil futures price may oscillate near the platform [28]. Soybean No. 2 - Spot information: Import costs of US, Brazilian, and Argentine soybeans are provided [29]. - Market analysis: Sino - US trade talks boost market confidence. Good weather in US soybean - growing areas and the peak season of Brazilian soybean exports affect the price [29]. - Reference view: The soybean No. 2 futures price may oscillate strongly in the short - term [29]. Soybean Meal - Spot information: Soybean meal prices in different regions are provided [30]. - Market analysis: Pay attention to Sino - US trade talks. Internationally, trade talks boost confidence, and tariffs and weather are key factors. Domestically, oil - mill production is high, and downstream demand is weak, but inventory accumulation is slow [30]. - Reference view: The soybean meal futures price may oscillate strongly in the short - term [30]. Soybean Oil - Spot information: Soybean oil prices in different regions are provided [31]. - Market analysis: Internationally, supply pressure and falling oil prices put pressure on soybean oil. Domestically, oil - mill production is high, and demand is in the off - season, with inventory accumulation pressure increasing [31]. - Reference view: The soybean oil futures price may oscillate in the short - term [31] Metals Copper - Spot information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper increased, and the import copper ore index also rose [32]. - Market analysis: US economic data reduces recession concerns and rate - cut expectations. Global tariffs and domestic policies affect the market. Raw material issues and inventory changes make the market more complex [33]. - Reference view: The copper price may touch the bubble price line. Consider removing defenses based on signals [33]. Aluminum - Spot information: The Shanghai spot aluminum price increased [34]. - Market analysis: The cost of alumina increases, supporting the theoretical cost of electrolytic aluminum. Supply is expected to be in surplus, and demand is in the off - season. Inventories decline, and the spot market is at a premium, but demand limits the upside [34]. - Reference view: The aluminum futures price may oscillate in a range [34]. Alumina - Spot information: The national average alumina price decreased slightly, and prices in different regions vary [35]. - Market analysis: Sino - US trade talks boost market sentiment. Supply slightly decreases as smelters' profits improve. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventories start to accumulate. The price is under pressure [35]. - Reference view: The alumina futures price shows a weak adjustment trend [35]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Spot information: The national and East China spot prices of cast aluminum alloy are stable [36]. - Market analysis: The high price of scrap aluminum supports the cost. Supply is in surplus as the industry expands. Demand from new - energy vehicles and electronics is resilient but limited by tariffs and the global economy. Inventories are high and may continue to accumulate [36]. - Reference view: The cast aluminum alloy futures price may be strong [37]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate are stable [38]. - Market analysis: The upstream raw - material market shows signs of stabilization, supply is stable but the structure is adjusting, and demand is weak. The price may oscillate at the bottom [38]. - Reference view: Conservative investors can wait and see, while aggressive investors can trade in the range [38]. Industrial Silicon - Spot information: The prices of different grades of industrial silicon are stable [39]. - Market analysis: Supply increases slightly, and demand is weak as downstream industries cut production or have low operating rates. Inventories are digested slowly, and the price is under pressure. Technically, it may rebound [39]. - Reference view: The industrial silicon futures price may oscillate strongly at the bottom [39]. Polysilicon - Spot information: The prices of different types of polysilicon are stable [40]. - Market analysis: Supply shows no obvious contraction, and demand is weak overall, with some differentiation. Exports decline. The market's supply - demand contradiction is not alleviated [40]. - Reference view: The polysilicon futures price may oscillate. Watch the previous low - point support [40] Black Metals Stainless Steel - Spot information: The price of cold - rolled stainless steel coil increased [41]. - Market analysis: Technically, it may change from a one - sided decline to a low - level oscillation. Fundamentally, the raw - material market is quiet, and cost supports the price, but weak demand restricts the upside [41]. - Reference view: It may oscillate widely at a low level. Wait and see for now [41]. Rebar - Spot information: The price of rebar in Shanghai is stable [42]. - Market analysis: Technically, it is stabilizing. Fundamentally, external talks are going well, raw - material prices are stabilizing, costs are dynamic, and demand is in the off - season, but inventories are low and the valuation is low [42][43]. - Reference view: The overall valuation is low. Consider light - position long positions at low prices [43]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Spot information: The price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai is stable [44]. - Market analysis: Technically, it is stabilizing. Fundamentally, external talks are going well, raw - material prices are stabilizing, costs are dynamic, apparent demand recovers, and inventories are low with a low valuation [44]. - Reference view: The overall valuation is low. Consider light - position long positions at low prices [44]. Iron Ore - Spot information: The iron ore price index and futures price are provided [45]. - Market analysis: Supply pressure eases as global shipments increase and domestic production rises slightly. Demand weakens as steel - mill operating rates decline, but current iron - water production is still high. Port inventories increase, and demand in the off - season is expected to be weak. Sino - US tariff easing boosts sentiment, but steel - billet exports are uncertain. Non - mainstream ore production cuts support the price, but reduced steel - mill profits may suppress demand [45]. - Reference view: The iron ore futures price may oscillate in the short - term. Watch port inventory

Core Insights - The report highlights the recent performance of the domestic financial market, with significant movements in major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index, indicating a positive market sentiment [2][7] - The report notes a 15.61% year-on-year increase in the national futures market transaction volume from January to May, although May saw a decline of 4.51% compared to the previous year [4] - The report emphasizes the collaboration between companies and technological advancements, such as the partnership between Fengzhushou and ByteDance's cloud service platform [6] Domestic Financial Market - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3402.32, up by 0.52%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.83% to 10246.02 [2] - The market experienced a strong rebound on June 11, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a high of 3413 points before a slight pullback [7] - The overall trading volume for the day was 1.26 trillion, a decrease of 159.9 billion from the previous trading day [7] Industry Developments - The report mentions that China has been Africa's largest trading partner for 16 consecutive years, with plans to implement zero tariffs on 100% of products for 53 African countries [4] - Several automotive companies announced a unified payment term of 60 days, impacting related stocks such as BYD and Seres [5] - The gaming industry in Zhejiang is receiving support for international expansion, with companies like Perfect World and Zhejiang Shuzhi Culture being highlighted [5] Company Focus - Fengzhushou (301382) is collaborating with ByteDance's Volcano Engine to launch the P8-SDWAN device [6] - Guangting Information (301221) plans to acquire 100% of Kaima Technology for a transaction value of 360 million [6] - Huadong Pharmaceutical (000963) received clinical trial approval for a foam formulation of 0.3% Roflumilast [6] - Chutianlong (003040) is developing a digital RMB smart contract platform in collaboration with eight second-tier operating institutions and Huawei [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [83] Core Insights - The supply of silver is gradually becoming rigid, with a cost center trend on the rise. The global silver supply from 2016 to 2024 is expected to have a CAGR of -0.5% [2][8] - Industrial demand for silver continues to grow, with a projected 3.6% year-on-year increase in 2024, driven primarily by the photovoltaic sector [2][33] - The silver price is expected to rise due to its industrial properties, with the gold-silver ratio likely to gradually converge [2][71] Supply Summary - The global silver supply is expected to be approximately 31,574 tons in 2024, a 1.7% increase year-on-year [8] - The structure of silver supply shows that mined silver accounts for 80.8% of total supply, with by-product silver making up about 19.1% [8][14] - The average cash cost of silver production is projected to be $7.64 per ounce in 2024, with a CAGR of 14.6% from 2018 to 2024 [20][24] Demand Summary - Industrial demand for silver is projected to account for about 58.5% of total demand in 2024, with significant contributions from the photovoltaic sector [32][33] - The demand for silver in the photovoltaic sector is expected to grow, with a projected increase of 2.6% in 2024, reaching 6,147 tons [33][37] - Jewelry demand is expected to remain relatively stable, with a projected increase of 2.8% in 2024, reaching 6,491 tons [46] Price Summary - The silver price is anticipated to gradually rise, supported by the industrial demand and a favorable monetary environment [71][78] - The current high gold-silver ratio is expected to trend towards convergence, driven by the industrial attributes of silver [71][73] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Xingye Silver and Shengda Resources, which are expected to benefit from the rising silver price and demand dynamics [80]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Different commodities show various import profit, price difference, and market trends, which are affected by factors such as trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and production and consumption patterns. Attention should be paid to policy changes and market dynamics for investment decisions [1][2][3] Summary by Category Metals - **Non - ferrous Metals**: For non - ferrous metals, understand logistics margins, major importers, and resource dependence. Aluminum and zinc should end their reverse spreads, while for tin, with the smooth resumption of overseas and Myanmar mines and low LME inventory, pay attention to the positive spread. Nickel, zinc, copper, and aluminum all have negative import profits [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - term shipments and arrivals are increasing, iron - water production is fluctuating at a high level. Overseas macro has strong short - term disturbances, and the domestic macro is relatively stable. The ore price center has declined, and there are few short - term opportunities for internal - external spreads, with the core being to profit from the discount of Dalian iron ore futures. In the long run, the global balance sheet is slightly in surplus compared to China's [1] - **Precious Metals**: The RMB exchange rate has an impact on the domestic price of precious metals, causing the internal - external price ratio to decline rapidly. The domestic consumption peak season has passed, while India's Diwali supports gold consumption. The silver spot discount has widened, and the import window is closed [3] Energy - **SC**: The spot discount on arrival has weakened, and the internal - external spread has also weakened [1] - **FU**: In summer, the internal - external spread maintains a weak pattern and has been fluctuating recently [1] - **LU**: The internal - external spread has widened again, and domestic production in June is relatively high [1] - **PG**: Recently, FEI and MB have declined, CP has increased. The internal - external spread has decreased, especially PG - CP. FEI - MB has changed little, FEI - CP has declined, and CP - MB has increased [1] - **PX**: Domestic PX production has declined, and there are still some overseas maintenance. As TA restarts, the PX de - stocking rate is expected to increase. The current internal - external spread has converged significantly, and the valuation is gradually neutral. It is advisable to wait and see [1] Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Due to the trade war and sanctions, the internal and external cotton markets have gradually decoupled. Previously, US cotton was stronger than Zhengzhou cotton due to high US tariffs on China. Now, after tariff cuts, Zhengzhou cotton is stronger. Continuously monitor subsequent tariff policy changes [2] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Oilseeds and oils have a high degree of import dependence. The international supply - demand balance is transmitted to the domestic market through imports. Focus on the difference in internal and external supply - demand rhythms [2]

宏观 股指 市场分析：当日沪深两市成交额 1.45 万亿元，较前日放量 10.57%。银行、创新药等防御性 板块领涨，而半导体、航天航空等高波动板块承压。上证 50 主力合约 IH2506 持仓量环比下 降 2.82%，短期多空分歧加剧。中证 1000 收盘价接近压力位 6226 左右，若突破需成交量配 合；沪深 300 收盘价接近支撑位 3514 左右，短期反弹动能不足。 参考观点：中证 1000 波动率较高，建议关注 6227 附近压力位突破情况；上证 50 建议结合 持仓量变化判断趋势持续性；沪深 300 波动率处于低位，但成交额占比稳定，可作为中长期 配置参考；中证 1000 与沪深 300 的波动率比值（1.56）接近 2024 年均值（1.62），可关注 均值回归机会。 原油 宏观与地缘：上周五美国非农数据超预期，削弱美联储降息紧迫性，同时中美第二轮谈判， 市场对经贸缓和有一定预期，原油价格或偏强震荡，关注 WTI 主力 65 美元/桶关键位置。 市场分析：基本面看，OPEC 大幅调降未来两年全球需求增速，美国贸易战升级，特朗普政 府政策多变，引发市场对全球需求担忧。库存方面，美原油库存虽然下滑， ...