2025 年贸易行业分析 联合资信 工商评级二部 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 一、行业运行情况 （一）进出口贸易运行情况 2024 年，中国进出口贸易总额稳步增长，累计出口同比上升明显，海外需求韧 性较强；受国内需求较弱叠加全球大宗商品价格下跌影响，累计进口同比增速下滑。 2025 年一季度，在外部困难挑战增多的情况下，中国外贸进出口实现平稳开局，美 国加征高额关税对我国外贸出口的制约预计二季度会逐步显现。 根据海关总署数据，2024 年中国进出口商品金额总值 61622.89 亿美元，同比上 升 3.8%。其中，累计出口金额 35772.22 亿美元，同比上升 5.9%，自 5 月以后累计出 口同比整体呈明显上升趋势，主要受半导体行业周期性回暖及消费电子、汽车、船舶 等产品竞争力提升等因素综合影响；累计进口金额 25850.67 亿美元，同比上升 1.1%， 自 8 月以来累计进口同比缓慢下滑，主要系国内需求端较弱叠加全球大宗商品价格下 跌所致；2024 年全年贸易顺差 9921.55 亿美元，较 2023 年增加 1700.53 亿美元，贸 易顺差有明显增长。 2025 年一季度，在 ...

Core Points - The UK and India have reached a significant bilateral trade agreement after three years of negotiations, which is considered the most important trade deal for the UK post-Brexit [1][2][4] - The agreement is expected to increase the annual bilateral trade volume by £25.5 billion (approximately 246.3 billion RMB) by 2040 [2] - Both countries are eager for this agreement to support their economies, with the UK aiming to reduce trade barriers and India seeking to boost its export trade [2][4] Negotiation Background - Trade negotiations began in January 2022 under former Prime Minister Boris Johnson and continued through various administrations, with a renewed focus under the Labour government [4] - The UK government has emphasized that reaching this trade agreement is a top priority, especially after the elections [4] - The agreement is seen as a major economic milestone for both nations, with UK Prime Minister Starmer and Indian Prime Minister Modi highlighting its ambitious and mutually beneficial nature [4][6] Key Provisions - Under the agreement, 90% of tariffs on Indian exports to the UK will be reduced, with 85% of goods achieving zero tariffs within ten years [4] - Tariffs on various UK exports to India, including high-end cars and whisky, will also see significant reductions, with whisky tariffs dropping from 150% to 75% [6] - The agreement is expected to provide UK consumers with lower prices and more choices in various goods, including clothing and seafood [5] Economic Context - India is currently the world's fifth-largest economy and is projected to become the third-largest in the coming years, making it an attractive partner for the UK [7] - The agreement is seen as a strategic move for both countries to diversify their trade relationships amid global economic uncertainties [7] - The negotiations faced challenges, including India's request for easier immigration access for its citizens to the UK, which was not included in the final agreement [6]

Group 1: 137th Canton Fair Achievements - The 137th Canton Fair achieved record numbers in participating enterprises and foreign buyers, showcasing the resilience and vitality of China's foreign trade despite a complex external environment [1][2] - Over 455 million products were displayed, including 1.02 million new products, 880,000 green low-carbon products, and 320,000 smart products, highlighting the acceleration of new trade dynamics driven by technological innovation and green development [1][2] - The number of foreign buyers reached over 280,000 from 219 countries and regions, marking a 17.3% increase compared to the previous spring fair, indicating strong global confidence in Chinese manufacturing and the market [1][2] Group 2: Trade Negotiations and Policies - The Canton Fair implemented a 50% reduction in booth fees for export exhibitors to support enterprises in facing external risks, which received positive feedback from participating companies [2] - The fair generated an export intention transaction of $25.44 billion, a 3% year-on-year increase, with over 60% of transactions coming from countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [2] Group 3: International Consumption Season - The 2025 International Consumption Season was launched on May 1, focusing on enhancing the implementation of tax refund policies for departing tourists, with significant sales growth observed during the "May Day" holiday [3][4] - Retail and catering sales during the holiday increased by 6.3% year-on-year, while inbound tourism sales surged by approximately 90% [3] Group 4: Cross-Border E-commerce and Trade Relations - The U.S. cancellation of the small package tax exemption for China is expected to negatively impact businesses and consumers in both countries, but the momentum of cross-border e-commerce remains strong [5] - China is committed to expanding its participation in international trade agreements, including the CPTPP, to enhance its trade relations and align with high-standard international economic rules [6]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the successful conclusion of a bilateral trade agreement between the UK and India after three years of negotiations, which aims to significantly reduce tariffs on a wide range of goods [1][3][5] - The agreement stipulates that 90% of UK imports to India will see a reduction in tariffs, with 85% of these tariffs eliminated over a period of 10 years [1][5] - Specific tariff reductions include a decrease in whisky and gin tariffs from 150% to 75%, eventually dropping to 40% in 10 years, and a reduction in automotive tariffs from 100% to 10% under a quota system [1][3] Group 2 - The UK and India both have a strong need for this trade agreement, as the UK seeks to expand its export markets in response to increased tariffs from the US, while India aims to boost its global trade share [2][3] - The agreement is seen as a significant milestone in strengthening economic and strategic relations between the two countries, with potential for increased trade, investment, and cooperation opportunities [3][4] - The UK government projects that the agreement will contribute an additional £4.8 billion to the UK GDP annually and increase bilateral trade by £25.5 billion by 2040 [4][5] Group 3 - The agreement is welcomed by industry organizations, highlighting its potential to create substantial opportunities for foreign trade amid rising global trade uncertainties [3][4] - The UK and Indian governments have adopted a pragmatic approach in negotiations, setting aside previously contentious issues such as immigration, which were not included in the final agreement [3][4] - The deal is expected to enhance India's market share in labor-intensive products, such as clothing and footwear, due to the significant reduction in tariffs on Indian exports to the UK [5]

泰国联合商业集团：泰国出口受到美国关税的压力。 ...

特区政府发言人表示，内地经济持续稳步增长、特区政府积极通过推动旅游业及盛事项目以刺激消费市 道，就业收入上升会继续支持零售业。 特区政府发言人说，随着4月初全球贸易摩擦因美国大幅增加进口关税而急剧升温，全球经济下行风险 显著上升。贸易政策极大不确定性将抑制国际贸易往来和投资气氛，从而困扰香港经济的短期前景。尽 管如此，内地经济持续稳步增长，加上特区政府各项推动经济增长和开拓更多元化市场的措施，将会为 本港不同经济活动带来支持。 统计处当天还发布最新零售业销货额数字。数据显示，与2024年同期相比，2025年首季度零售业总销货 价值的临时估计下跌6.5%。与2024年第四季度比较，经季节性调整的零售业总销货价值的临时估计上 升3.8%，经季节性调整的零售业总销货数量的临时估计则上升2.2%。 据新华社香港电(谢妞)香港特区政府统计处近日发布经济数据，2025年第一季度本地生产总值预先估计 数字同比上升3.1%，比去年第四季度上升0.6个百分点，创5个季度新高。经济按季增长2%，是两年来 最大增速。 今年第一季度，香港货品出口总额同比上升8.7%，与2024年第四季度的1.3%相比升幅明显；货品进口 在2025年 ...

新华财经北京5月6日电 （王晓伟）美国商务部经济分析局（BEA）数据显示，3月贸易逆差从2月份修 正后的1232亿美元跃升14.0%，达到创纪录的1405亿美元。美国3月贸易逆差扩大至纪录高位，因企业 在加征关税前增加商品进口，这拖累了美国第一季GDP，导致三年来首次出现负增长。 逆差、进出口额上升：截至3月的三个月，平均商品和服务贸易逆差增加141亿美元至1314亿美元；平均 出口额增加40亿美元至2757亿美元；平均进口额增加181亿美元至4071亿美元。 同比变化：与2024年3月结束的三个月相比，平均商品和服务贸易逆差增加632亿美元；平均出口额增加 137亿美元；平均进口额增加769亿美元。 进出口商品和服务细分数据 商品出口：3月商品出口额增加13亿美元至1832亿美元，其中工业用品和材料、天然气、非货币黄金、 汽车及零部件等有不同程度增长，资本货物有所下降。 服务出口：3月服务出口额减少0.9亿美元至95.2亿美元，旅行服务出口下降明显，运输和金融服务有增 有减。 贸易逆差扩大：3月美国商品和服务贸易逆差为1405亿美元，较2月修正后的1232亿美元增加173亿美 元，增幅达14.0%。 进出口 ...

美国商务部周二公布数据显示，商品和服务贸易逆差环比扩大14%，达到1405亿美元，远超经济学家调 查预测的1372亿美元中值。 智通财经APP获悉，由于特朗普政府即将实施全面关税政策，企业争相提前进口商品，3月美国贸易逆 差创下历史纪录。 进口总额激增4.4%至创纪录的4190亿美元，而出口仅微增0.2%。需要注意的是，这些数据未经通胀调 整。其中消费品进口增幅创历史新高，资本设备和机动车辆进口量也显著增加。 这份报告揭示了美国企业在4月2日特朗普宣布扩大关税政策前最后的囤货潮。第一季度贸易逆差急剧扩 大，直接导致美国经济出现2022年以来首次收缩。1-3月期间国内生产总值年化下降0.3%，净出口拖累 经济增长近5个百分点，创历史最大跌幅。 经通胀调整后，3月美国商品贸易逆差总额扩大至创纪录的1509亿美元。 目前，特朗普正在推行所谓的双边贸易公平政策，旨在通过关税手段达成三重目标：吸引外资赴美投 资、提振国内制造业产能、强化国家工业安全体系。同时，关税也被视为增加政府财政收入的重要途 径。 3月的报告显示，经季节性调整后，美国对加拿大商品贸易逆差收窄，对墨西哥逆差仍维持在2月创下的 高位水平。对爱尔兰贸易逆 ...

Group 1 - The 137th China Import and Export Fair (Canton Fair) achieved record attendance with 288,938 foreign buyers, marking a 17.3% increase compared to the previous session [1][2] - The fair highlighted China's significant role in the global supply chain, with 187,450 buyers from Belt and Road Initiative countries, representing a 17.4% increase and accounting for 64.9% of total foreign attendees [2] - The fair generated an intended export turnover of $25.44 billion, reflecting a 3% growth, with foreign buyers showing strong interest in high-quality, innovative products [4] Group 2 - Over 30,000 enterprises showcased more than 4.55 million products, including 1.02 million new products and 880,000 green low-carbon products [4] - The fair served as a vital platform for businesses to capture trends, expand networks, and reshape business models, with 99% of suppliers for some companies sourced from the fair [4] - 736 enterprises from 50 countries participated in the import exhibition, with 67% from Belt and Road countries, indicating strong international collaboration [4]

5月1日晚上，在绥芬河市源丰经贸有限责任公司的果蔬大库内，该公司总经理张密忙着安排出口果蔬事 宜。张密告诉记者，公司平时每天出口果蔬200多吨，"五一"假期出口订单增至每天400多吨。公司在假 期里加紧生产，满足市场需求。 为助力果蔬"抢鲜"出口、日用百货出口"加速跑"，绥芬河海关为易腐产品、危化品开辟快捷通道，关员 每天早晨7点到岗，全力保障公路口岸跨境货运高效顺畅。 据介绍，今年前3个月，绥芬河出口规模突破38亿元，同比增长45%。 今年以来，我国外贸经营主体活跃度进一步增强，外贸的"含新量"不断提升。"五一"假期，记者在各地 走访看到，不少外贸企业全力以赴赶订单，口岸、港口一派繁忙景象。 "五一"假期，在黑龙江绥芬河公路口岸，一辆辆满载货物的大货车有序通关出境。5月1日，口岸进出境 货车达353辆，迎来货运高峰期。"'五一'假期，绥芬河口岸过货忙、贸易旺，展现出边境贸易的蓬勃活 力。"绥芬河市商务局局长巩建伯说，该口岸将进一步畅通企业反馈渠道，统筹联动口岸联检部门，保 障企业高效通关。 节日期间，位于德清钟管镇的浙江龙虎锻造有限公司车间依旧焊花闪烁、机械轰鸣。"早在2018年，企 业就将市场向欧洲调整， ...