白糖产业日报 2025-12-02 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 一定冲击，但价格相对坚挺，给与广西糖价一定支撑。另外市场前期利空基本消化，悲观情绪有所缓和， 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 预计后市糖价震荡为主。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5382 | -23 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 338486 | -12087 | | | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 0 | ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Yuegui Co., Ltd. experienced a stock price increase of 5.18%, reaching 21.11 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 799 million yuan and a turnover rate of 8.60%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 16.932 billion yuan [1] - Yuegui Co., Ltd. is primarily engaged in the production and sale of mechanism sugar (white sugar, brown sugar), pulp (unbleached pulp, bleached pulp), and mechanism paper (cultural paper, specialty paper), as well as the mining, processing, and sale of sulfur iron ore, sulfuric acid, reagent acid (refined sulfuric acid), iron ore powder (sulfur iron ore slag), and phosphate fertilizer (ordinary calcium phosphate) [1] - The revenue composition of Yuegui Co., Ltd. includes sulfur concentrate at 37.15%, mechanism sugar at 21.46%, pulp at 13.92%, and other products such as sulfuric acid (5.79%), iron ore powder (4.79%), and various other items [1] Group 2 - Tianhong Fund has a fund that ranks among the top ten circulating shareholders of Yuegui Co., Ltd., specifically the Tianhong CSI Food and Beverage ETF (159736), which newly entered the top ten with 1.5864 million shares, accounting for 0.35% of the circulating shares [2] - The Tianhong CSI Food and Beverage ETF (159736) was established on September 9, 2021, with a current scale of 5.525 billion yuan, and has experienced a loss of 1.25% this year, ranking 4158 out of 4206 in its category [2] - The fund manager of Tianhong CSI Food and Beverage ETF is Sha Chuan, who has a cumulative tenure of 7 years and 321 days, with the fund's total asset size at 27.853 billion yuan and a best return of 135.24% during the tenure [3]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report - Date: December 2, 2025 - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 2. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Futures Market - SR601 closed at 5405 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.04%, with a position reduction of 10,944 lots [7] - SR605 closed at 5333 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.04%, with a position increase of 3246 lots [7] - US Sugar 03 closed at 15.21 cents/pound, up 0.07 cents or 0.46%, with a position reduction of 2136 lots [7] - US Sugar 05 closed at 14.70 cents/pound, up 0.02 cents or 0.14%, with a position increase of 1719 lots [7] Market Analysis - New York raw sugar futures edged up slightly, with the main March contract rising 0.46% to 15.21 cents/pound. The London ICE white sugar futures' main March contract fell 0.23% to $435.50/ton. The market is waiting for the production data of Brazil's central - southern region in the first half of November, and raw sugar is mainly oscillating [7] - Zhengzhou sugar's main contract maintained oscillation. The 01 contract closed at 5405 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.04%, with a reduction of 10,944 lots. Domestic new sugar prices were lowered. The new sugar price in Nanning is 5530 yuan/ton, and in Kunming is 5500 yuan/ton. The number of sugar mills starting production in the south is increasing, and new sugar prices are falling. Speculative short - sellers in Zhengzhou sugar 01 are gradually leaving the market, driving up the futures price, and it is expected to end in a weak oscillation [8] 3. Industry News Thailand's Sugar Policy - Thailand's Sugarcane and Sugar Board announced that the benchmark price of sugarcane for the 2025/26 crushing season is set at 890 Thai baht/ton (corresponding to a sugar content of 10%), with a price floating standard of 53.40 Thai baht per 1% sugar content and a sugar production and sales subsidy of 381.43 Thai baht/ton [9] StoneX's Forecast - StoneX predicted a global sugar surplus of 3.7 million tons in the 2025/26 annual report, the highest since the 2017/18 season. Global sugar inventories are expected to increase by 5% to 77.3 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio will rise to 39.9%, close to the 20 - year historical average [9] - StoneX lowered its sugar production forecast for Brazil's central - southern region in the 2026/27 crushing season from 42.1 million tons to 41.5 million tons, while raising its ethanol production forecast by 100 million liters to a record 36.1 billion liters. The expected sugarcane crushing volume remains unchanged at 620.5 million tons, an increase of 3.6% compared to the previous season [9] Yunnan's Sugar Production - As of the end of November, 10 sugar mills in Yunnan had started production, 5 more than the same period last year. However, due to machine running - in at the beginning of production, the average sugar yield was about 10%, down 1 percentage point year - on - year. The new sugar production in Yunnan in November is expected to be about 40,000 tons, compared with 38,600 tons in the same period of the previous season [10] 4. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including spot price trends, 2601 contract basis, SR1 - 5 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, and Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind, Pan - Sugar Technology, and Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange [11][14][21] - The report also provides trading volume, long - position and short - position data of top 20 futures companies in the sugar futures market, with a total trading volume of 199,924 lots, a decrease of 17,021 lots; total long - positions of 248,086 lots, a decrease of 8,209 lots; and total short - positions of 268,090 lots, a decrease of 10,255 lots [21]

人民财讯12月1日电，中粮科技（000930）12月1日公告，为积极拓展功能糖等产业，补足西北区域淀粉 糖布局空白，公司拟投资8.8亿元建设平凉25万吨/年淀粉糖及1万吨/年阿洛酮糖新建项目，建设周期为 自董事会批复项目之日至投料试车共20个月。 ...

2025年12月01日 本周重要气象提示——中国 12月是我国南方地区进入集中开榨期，晴朗的天气有利于甘蔗糖分的积累和甘蔗的砍运。 截至11月27日，广西已经有21家糖厂开榨，同比减少36家，日榨产15万吨，同比减少31.6万吨。 当前广西、云南地区整体天气较为干燥，有利于糖分积累。 本周重要气象提示——巴西 南华浩淞白糖期货气象分析报告 ——巴西中南部降水偏少不利于甘蔗拔节 边舒扬（投资咨询资格证号：Z0012647） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 当前巴西中南部进入甘蔗的压榨后期，对于当前需要收获的甘蔗而言，需要晴朗少雨的天气，有利于机 械收割，减少甘蔗含水量，提升蔗糖分。需要昼夜温差大，有利于甘蔗糖分转化与累积。 巴西中南部现在逐步进入雨季，压榨量开始下降，不过近期降水又有所减少。 巴西中南部近期降水减少，对于新榨季的甘蔗生长造成一定影响，不利于甘蔗的拔节。 本周重要气象提示——印度 当前印度甘蔗处于工艺成熟期，正是糖分积累的冲刺阶段，甘蔗停止营养生长，茎秆蔗糖浓度达到年度 峰值，汁液浓稠度最佳，即将步入榨糖黄金窗口期。印度马邦、卡邦已于11月开始压榨。 理想的降雨条件是日降雨量＜1 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Industry Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: November 30, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Xu Liang Z0002220 [2] - Reviewer: Tang Yun Z0002422 [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The SR2501 contract will enter the delivery month in one month. Last week, the 01 - 03 spread widened. The strong performance of the 01 contract is due to the fact that the price of new sugar is higher than that of old sugar and much higher than the futures price, leading to the need for futures - spot convergence. With the recent recovery in the overseas market, it is possible for the futures price to converge through a small rebound. [5] - Both the SR2603 and SR2605 contracts currently show a contango structure, mainly because the 25/26 sugar season is expected to have an increase in production. However, the contango is not significant. Last week, the spread between near - term and far - term contracts narrowed due to the decline in the near - term contract. In the long run, the 03 contract will face pressure during the off - season of consumption and the peak inventory period, and the 05 contract will be affected by imported sugar. Therefore, the contango pattern is difficult to break, and the spread may widen in the future. [5] Market Information Domestic Market - Spot quotes: The price at the Liuzhou middleman's platform is 5610 - 5620 yuan/ton, and the price quoted by Kunming middlemen is 5400 - 5510 yuan/ton. [3] - In October, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 210,000 tons year - on - year. [3] International Market - ISO adjusted the global surplus forecast for the 25/26 season to 162,500 tons, considering higher production expectations in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. [4] - In the first three weeks of November, Brazil exported 2.5637 million tons of sugar, with an average daily export of 183,100 tons, a 3% year - on - year increase. [4] - ISMA estimates that India's sugar production in the 25/26 season will be 34.35 million tons (including ethanol), with 3.4 million tons of sugar used for ethanol production. [4] - India's NFCSF has urged the government to raise the minimum domestic sugar sales price to 41 rupees per kilogram, adjust the ethanol price, and approve more sugarcane for ethanol production. [4] - The market expects that the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of November will increase by 14.9% to 1.885 million tons, and sugar production will increase by 18.9% year - on - year to 107,500 tons. [4] - India has opened an export quota of 1.5 million tons, lower than the market's expectation of 2 million tons. Currently, the possibility of exports is low because the domestic sugar price in India is higher than the overseas price. [4] - As of November 19, 147 sugar mills in Maharashtra, India, have started crushing, processing 1.1277 million tons of sugarcane and producing 86,810 quintals of sugar, with an average sugar recovery rate of 7.4%. In the same period last year, only 91 mills were operating, processing 135,000 tons of sugarcane with a sugar recovery rate of 4.2%. [4] Price and Spread Data Futures Weekly Price and Spread | Contract | Closing Price on December 1, 2025 | Change Rate | Spread | Closing Price on December 1, 2025 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SR01 | 5400 | 0% | SR01 - 05 | 73 | 0 | | SR03 | 5360 | 0% | SR05 - 09 | - 16 | 0 | | SR05 | 5327 | 0% | SR09 - 01 | - 57 | 0 | | SR07 | 5337 | 0% | SR01 - 03 | 40 | 0 | | SR09 | 5343 | 0% | SR03 - 05 | 33 | 0 | | SR11 | 5339 | 0% | SR05 - 07 | - 10 | 0 | | SB | 15.21 | 0% | SR07 - 09 | - 6 | 0 | | W | 435.6 | 0% | SR09 - 11 | 4 | 0 | | | | | SR11 - 01 | - 61 | 0 | [6] Spot Weekly Price and Spread | Location | Price on November 28, 2025 | Change | Spread | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Nanning | 5450 | - 30 | Nanning - Liuzhou | 10 | 0 | | Liuzhou | 5440 | - 30 | Nanning - Kunming | 10 | 0 | | Kunming | 5440 | - 30 | Nanning - Zhanjiang | 50 | - 30 | | Zhanjiang | 5400 | 0 | Nanning - Rizhao | - 350 | 0 | | Rizhao | 5800 | - 30 | Nanning - Urumqi | 200 | - 30 | | Urumqi | 5250 | 0 | Kunming - Rizhao | - 360 | 0 | [7] Weekly Basis | Basis | Basis on December 1, 2025 | Change | Basis | Basis on December 1, 2025 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Nanning - SR01 | 70 | - 10 | Kunming - SR01 | 55 | - 75 | | Nanning - SR03 | 110 | 6 | Kunming - SR03 | 95 | - 59 | | Nanning - SR05 | 143 | 12 | Kunming - SR05 | 128 | - 53 | | Nanning - SR07 | 133 | 11 | Kunming - SR07 | 118 | - 54 | | Nanning - SR09 | 127 | 13 | Kunming - SR09 | 112 | - 52 | | Nanning - SR11 | 131 | 12 | Kunming - SR11 | 116 | - 53 | [8][10] Weekly Import Price Change | Import Source | In - quota Price on November 26, 2025 | Weekly Change | Out - of - quota Price | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Brazil | 4157 | 125 | 5271 | 164 | | Rizhao - Brazil | 1643 | - 90 | 529 | - 109 | | Liuzhou - Brazil | 1248 | - 129 | 134 | - 168 | | Zhengzhou Sugar - Brazil | 1222 | - 127 | 108 | - 166 | | Thailand | 4206 | 86 | 5334 | 112 | | Rizhao - Thailand | 1594 | - 90 | 466 | - 109 | | Liuzhou - Thailand | 1199 | - 90 | 71 | - 116 | | Zhengzhou Sugar - Thailand | 1173 | - 88 | 45 | - 114 | [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural products sector [1][4]. Core Views - The beef price is expected to continue rising, indicating a potential reversal in the beef cycle in 2025 [2][3]. - The pig industry is undergoing a "de-involution," which is likely to support long-term pig prices [1][3]. - The poultry sector is anticipated to benefit from seasonal demand recovery, with limited supply fluctuations [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Overview and Data Summary - The report highlights a steady increase in beef prices, with the average market price at 66.54 yuan/kg as of November 28, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.24% and a year-on-year increase of 8.83% [2][3]. - The average price of live pigs was reported at 11.19 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 4% [1][3]. 2. Fundamental Tracking 2.1 Swine - The report notes that the pig price is supported by industry adjustments, with a current price of 11.19 yuan/kg [1][3]. - The average wholesale price of pork is 17.83 yuan/kg, down 0.45% week-on-week and down 24.13% year-on-year [1][3]. 2.2 Poultry - The price of broiler chickens is 7.19 yuan/kg, up 0.56% week-on-week, while chick prices are slightly down at 3.47 yuan/each [1][3]. - The report indicates that the supply of yellow chickens remains stable, with prices showing slight increases [1][3]. 2.3 Beef - The beef market is experiencing a new round of price increases, with expectations for a bullish cycle in 2025 [2][3]. - The average price of raw milk is 3.03 yuan/kg, with a year-on-year decrease of 3% [2][3]. 2.4 Feed - The report emphasizes that the feed industry is benefiting from deeper industrialization and clearer division of labor, with leading companies expected to gain competitive advantages [3][4]. 2.5 Other Commodities - Soybean meal prices are stable, with a current price of 3100 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.98% [2][3]. - Corn prices are also on a mild upward trend, currently at 2254 yuan/ton, up 1.21% week-on-week [2][3]. 3. Company Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Key companies such as YouRan Agriculture and Modern Agriculture are rated as "Outperform" with respective prices of 4.36 yuan and 1.34 yuan [4]. - Mu Yuan Co. is highlighted with a projected EPS of 3.57 yuan for 2025, maintaining an "Outperform" rating [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The 25/26 sugar season is expected to see a return to a surplus pattern in the global sugar market, and raw sugar will remain under pressure in the medium to long term. In the short term, the further decline space of raw sugar may be limited, but the surplus pattern restricts its rebound momentum, making it difficult to break out of the low - range oscillation range. The production prospects of Brazil in the 26/27 sugar season are still optimistic [4][5][64]. - Domestic sugar is expected to increase for the third consecutive year. In the short term, there is support, but as new sugar is listed in large quantities, the spot pressure will gradually increase. The medium - to - long - term trend may still be unoptimistic, and there is a possibility of a new low. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies [4][6][65]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 White Sugar Market Review - The overall market traded around the expectation of increased global sugar supply in the 25/26 sugar season, showing an oscillatory downward trend throughout the year. The domestic market generally followed the international market, and the price strength was mainly affected by domestic production and sales progress and policies [12]. - The market can be divided into five stages: the first stage (January) was a bottom - finding and rebound; the second stage (February - March) was a multi - empty game; the third stage (April - June) was a weak decline; the fourth stage (July - September) was a low - level oscillation; the fifth stage (October to present) showed a pattern of domestic strength and international weakness [12][13]. 3.2 International Sugar Market Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Brazil - In the 25/26 sugar season, Brazil's sugar supply remains strong. As of the second half of October, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region has exceeded the same period last year. The sugar production and export volume in October were high, and the full - year sugar production is expected to reach a historical second - high level [16][17][25]. - In the medium - to - long term, the production prospects for the 26/27 sugar season are still optimistic. The weather has improved compared to last year, and the increase in corn ethanol production may lead to a decline in ethanol prices, which may keep the sugar - making ratio at a high level [23]. 3.2.2 India - The 25/26 sugar season in India is expected to see a significant rebound in sugar production, with a net sugar production increase of 18.6% year - on - year. As of November 15, the sugar production has increased compared to the same period last year [26][29]. - The Indian government has allowed 150 tons of sugar exports in the 25/26 year. Currently, due to low international sugar prices, it is difficult for exports to increase significantly, but continuous attention should be paid to government policies and sugar mills' willingness to export [29]. 3.2.3 Thailand - In the 25/26 sugar season, Thailand's sugar production is expected to continue to increase, with the market generally estimating the output at around 1.1 million tons, an increase of about 100,000 tons year - on - year. Attention should be paid to the impact of weather and Chinese syrup control policies [35]. 3.2.4 Global - The 25/26 sugar season is expected to see a return to a surplus pattern in the global sugar market, with the ISO predicting a supply surplus of 1.63 million tons. However, there are still significant differences in the assessment of the surplus range, and continuous attention should be paid to the final output in the Northern Hemisphere [42]. 3.3 Domestic Sugar Market Supply and Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Production - Domestic sugar is expected to increase for the third consecutive year. The 2025/26 sugar production in Guangxi is estimated to increase by about 500,000 tons to 6.95 million tons. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs predicts that the national sugar production in the 2025/26 year will be 11.7 million tons [47]. 3.3.2 Imports - In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 3.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 480,000 tons. The import profit has reached a new high this year, and the supply pressure in the short term is relatively large [52]. 3.3.3 Substitutes - In 2025, the import control policy for syrups and premixes has become stricter. If the control is effective, the import volume of syrups is expected to further decrease, which will have a certain supporting effect on domestic sugar prices [55]. 3.4 2026 White Sugar Market Outlook - The situation is similar to the core views, with raw sugar facing long - term pressure from the surplus pattern, and domestic sugar prices following raw sugar with a medium - to - long - term downward pressure [64][65].

Group 1 - The U.S. private exporters reported a sale of 312,000 tons of soybeans to China, bringing the total imports of U.S. soybeans by China to 2.254 million tons for the current year [1] - In the domestic salt market, several northern salt companies have raised the price of sun-dried salt by 20-30 yuan per ton [1] - China's salt import volume reached 10.9 million tons in the first ten months of this year, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, with 70,000 tons being edible salt [1] Group 2 - In the sugar market, the cost of Brazilian sugar arriving in China is significantly lower than domestic prices, with quota sugar costing 4,073 yuan per ton, which is 1,602 yuan lower than Guangxi prices [1] - The increase in sugar imports in October was 39%, reaching 750,000 tons, marking a new high for the year, with cumulative imports from January to October at 3.9 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14% [2] - Brazil's sugar exports to China in October reached 620,000 tons, a remarkable increase of 58% compared to October of the previous year [2][4]

博弈难度加大， 短线建议观望 白糖周报 2025/11/29 13352843071 yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 杨泽元（农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 市场回顾：外盘方面，本周原糖价格反弹，截至周五ICE原糖3月合约收盘价报15.12美分/磅，较之前一周上涨0.35美分/磅，涨幅2.37%；价 差方面，原糖3-5月差震荡，报0.47美分/磅，较之前一周下跌0.02美分/磅；伦敦白糖3-5月差震荡，报3.8美元/吨，较之前一周下跌1.8美 元/吨；3月合约原白价差震荡，报100美元/吨，较之前一周上涨2美元/吨。国内方面，本周郑糖价格小幅反弹，截至周五郑糖1月合约收盘 价报5400元/吨，较之前一周上涨47元/吨，涨幅0.88%。广西现货报5450元/吨，较之前一周下跌30元/吨；基差走弱，报50元/吨，较之前一 周下跌77元/吨；1-5价差震荡，报73元/吨，较之前一周上涨22元/吨；配额外现货进口利润报573元/吨，较之前一周下跌63元/吨。 ◆ 行业消息：据沐甜科技报道，截至11 ...