Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract decreased slightly, with a weekly decline of about 0.47%. Brazil exported 4.205 million tons of sugar in October, a 13% year - on - year increase. From the 2025/26 sugar season (April - March of the following year) to October 2025, Brazil's cumulative sugar exports were 21.9568 million tons, a 5.27% year - on - year decrease. With strong production increase expectations in India and Thailand, the rebound of the raw sugar price is weak. China's sugar market is less affected by the decline due to import quotas and policies. Guangxi sugar mills are mainly focused on inventory reduction, and the new sugar season is expected to start in mid - to late November, providing some sales opportunities for old sugar. The overall market lacks driving factors, and the price will remain low in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract in the short term [5]. 3. Directory Summaries 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract decreased slightly this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.47% [5]. - **Market Outlook**: Brazil's sugar exports in October increased year - on - year, but the current sugar season is ending, and exports are expected to decline seasonally. With strong production increase expectations in India and Thailand, the raw sugar price rebounds weakly. China's market is less affected by the decline. Guangxi sugar mills are reducing inventory, and the new sugar season may start late, providing sales opportunities for old sugar. The market lacks driving factors, and the price will be low in the short term. Attention should be paid to the import data for October [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract in the short term [5]. - **Future Concerns**: Domestic production and sales, and new - season production estimates [6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **International Raw Sugar Spot Price**: This week, the international raw sugar spot price was 14.17 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.72 cents per pound from last week [15]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar Futures**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract decreased slightly this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.47%. The latest price was 5457 yuan, up 17 yuan or 0.31%. The trading volume was 140,737 lots, and the open interest was 371,961 lots, a decrease of 486 lots [17]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar Futures Top 20 Positions**: This week, the net position of the top 20 in the Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 58,458 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts was 7,382 [23]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar Futures Contract Spread**: This week, the spread between the 1 - 5 contracts of Zhengzhou sugar futures was + 60 yuan per ton, and the spot - Zhengzhou sugar basis was + 303 yuan per ton [27]. - **Spot Market Price**: As of November 7, the price of Liuzhou sugar in Guangxi was 5,760 yuan per ton, and the spot price of Kunming sugar in Yunnan was 5,650 yuan per ton [31]. - **Imported Sugar Cost and Profit**: This week, the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 1,754 yuan per ton, a decrease of 6 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar outside the quota was 541 yuan per ton, an increase of 32 yuan per ton from last week. The estimated profit of Thai sugar within the quota was 1,530 yuan per ton, an increase of 18 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of Thai sugar outside the quota was 456 yuan per ton, an increase of 24 yuan per ton from last week [37]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - **Supply - Production**: As of the end of October 2025, the national sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03% year - on - year [42]. - **Supply - Industrial Inventory**: As of August 2025, the domestic sugar industrial inventory was 1.1623 million tons, a decrease of 450,000 tons or 27.91% month - on - month, and an increase of 60,100 tons or 5.45% year - on - year [45]. - **Supply - Import Volume**: In September 2025, China's sugar import volume was 550,000 tons, a 27.78% year - on - year increase and a decrease of 280,000 tons month - on - month. From January to September 2025, the cumulative sugar import volume was 3.16 million tons, a 7.89% year - on - year increase [49]. - **Demand - Sales Rate**: As of the end of October 2025, the sugar mills in the 2024/25 sugar season had all stopped production. The national sugar production in this sugar - making season was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03% year - on - year [55]. - **Demand - Finished Sugar and Soft Drink Production**: In September 2025, China's monthly production of finished sugar was 539,100 tons, a 35.4% year - on - year increase. The monthly production of soft drinks was 15.9167 million tons, a 1.9% year - on - year decrease [59]. 3.4 Option and Stock - Related Market - **Option Market**: The implied volatility of the at - the - money options of sugar this week is presented in the relevant chart, but no specific data is provided in the text [61]. - **Stock Market - Nanning Sugar Industry**: The price - to - earnings ratio chart of Nanning Sugar Industry is provided, but no specific analysis is given [65].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: White Sugar Daily Report [2] - Report Date: November 6, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [4] Group 2: Data Analysis Futures Market - SR09: Closing price 5,390, down 3 (-0.06%), volume 4,309 (increase of 1,685), open interest 11,206 (increase of 1,462) [5] - SR01: Closing price 5,448, up 7 (0.13%), volume 155,276 (decrease of 29,200), open interest 372,447 (increase of 4,955) [5] - SR05: Closing price 5,388, down 5 (-0.09%), volume 24,379 (decrease of 6,357), open interest 113,419 (increase of 5,455) [5] Spot Market - Spot prices in different regions: Liuzhou 5,720, Kunming 5,905, Wuhan 6,000, Nanning 0, Bayuquan 6,015, Rizhao 5,820, Xi'an 6,130, all unchanged from the previous day [5] - Basis: Liuzhou 272, Kunming 457, Wuhan 552, Nanning -5448, Bayuquan 567, Rizhao 372, Xi'an 682 [5] Monthly Spread - SR5 - SR01: Spread -60, down 12; SR09 - SR5: Spread 2, up 2; SR09 - SR01: Spread -58, down 10 [5] Import Profit - Brazil: ICE主力 14.12, premium (0.46), freight 42.25, quota - in price 3,893, out - of - quota price 4,941, spread with Liuzhou 779, spread with Rizhao 879, spread with futures 507 [5] - Thailand: ICE主力 14.12, premium 0.89, freight 18.00, quota - in price 3,958, out - of - quota price 5,026, spread with Liuzhou 694, spread with Rizhao 794, spread with futures 422 [5] Group 3: Market Outlook Important Information - In India, protests in Kolhapur, Maharashtra, over sugarcane prices have escalated, disrupting sugarcane harvesting and transportation, and many sugar mills have not started operations [7] - Some sugar groups in China have completed inventory clearance for the 24/25 and 23/24 seasons, and Guangxi is expected to start the 25/26 sugar - making season next week [7] - Processed sugar prices are stable with average trading volume [8] Logical Analysis - Internationally, major sugar - producing regions are increasing production. Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a historically high level, and India may export nearly 2 million tons of sugar in the 2025/26 season. The fundamental situation of raw sugar is weak, and the long - term trend is downward [9] - Domestically, short - term sugar production is expected to increase, and international sugar prices have fallen significantly. However, due to tightened imports of syrup and premixed powder and relatively high previous pricing costs, there is some support for domestic sugar prices. In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and in the long term, prices are expected to be weak but with limited downward space [10] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: International sugar prices have resumed their downward trend. Domestic sugar prices are expected to fluctuate, so it is recommended to operate within the range (sell high, buy low) [11] - Arbitrage: Short foreign sugar and long Zhengzhou sugar [11] - Options: Observe [11] Group 4: Related Attachments - Figures include Guangxi and Yunnan monthly inventory, Guangxi and Yunnan sales - to - production ratios, Liuzhou white sugar spot price, Liuzhou - Kunming sugar spot price difference, white sugar basis for different months, and Zhengzhou sugar spreads for different contract months [13][14][18]

1. Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report - Date: November 6, 2025 - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [2][3] 2. Market Review and Trading Suggestions Futures Market - SR601 closed at 5,441 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan or 0.86%, with an open interest of 367,492 contracts, a decrease of 1,330 contracts - SR605 closed at 5,393 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan or 0.75%, with an open interest of 107,964 contracts, an increase of 5,015 contracts - US Sugar 03 closed at 14.21 cents/pound, down 0.44 cents or 3.00%, with an open interest of 478,904 contracts, an increase of 3,720 contracts - US Sugar 05 closed at 13.82 cents/pound, down 0.41 cents or 2.88%, with an open interest of 166,382 contracts, an increase of 1,289 contracts [7] Market Analysis - On Monday, New York raw sugar futures fell sharply. The ICE London white sugar futures' December contract rose 1.8% to $423.30/ton. Overseas financial markets were volatile overnight. The US Senate failed to pass the government's temporary appropriation bill again, leading to a government shutdown, which cast a shadow over the economic outlook. The US dollar index strengthened, and US stocks and commodities generally declined, dragging down raw sugar - The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar fell yesterday. The 01 contract closed at 5,441 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan or 0.86%, with a decrease of 1,330 contracts in positions. Domestic spot sugar prices in production areas declined. Nanning sugar was quoted at 5,730 yuan/ton, and Kunming sugar was quoted at 5,580 yuan/ton. The domestic market fundamentals were stable. Zhengzhou sugar followed the decline of raw sugar, indicating that it was difficult to break through the 5,500 yuan/ton resistance level. From a capital perspective, speculative short - sellers significantly increased their positions [7][8] 3. Industry News Brazil - Conab reported that from 2024 to the first half of 2025, adverse climate conditions such as water shortages, unstable rainfall, and high temperatures in the sugarcane - growing season in central - southern Brazil affected the 2025/26 sugarcane production - In 2025/26, Brazil's sugarcane planting area is expected to be 8.97 million hectares, a 2.4% increase from 2024/25. However, the average yield per hectare is expected to be 74.26 tons, a 3.8% year - on - year decrease. The increase in planting area cannot offset the loss caused by the decline in yield per hectare - The estimated sugarcane production in the current season is 666.4 million tons, a 1.6% decrease from 2024/25 and a 0.4% decrease from the previous forecast of 668.8 million tons. Despite the decrease in sugarcane supply, Conab still expects sugar production to be 45 million tons, a 2% year - on - year increase, which would be the second - highest in history after the 2023/24 season's 45.68 million tons - The total production of Brazilian sugarcane ethanol and corn ethanol in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 36.2 billion liters, a 2.8% year - on - year decrease. The decrease is mainly due to a 9.5% reduction in sugarcane ethanol production (expected to drop to 26.55 billion liters), while corn ethanol production is expected to increase by 22.6% to 9.61 billion liters. Among the total, anhydrous ethanol is expected to be 13.58 billion liters, and hydrous ethanol is expected to be 22.16 billion liters [9] India - On November 4, the Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) released the first sugar production forecast for the 2025 - 26 season. The total sugar production (before deducting the amount used for ethanol production) is expected to be 34.35 million tons. After deducting the estimated 3.4 million tons used for ethanol production, the net sugar production is expected to reach 30.95 million tons [10] 4. Data Overview - The report includes various data charts such as spot price trends, 2601 contract basis, SR1 - 5 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading and position data of the top 20 seats of the main Zhengzhou sugar contract [11][13][14][23]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Near the new crops in the Northern Hemisphere and the domestic cane sugar listing, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be mainly volatile and weak. The large current import volume of raw sugar and the gradually released pressure of imported sugar arriving at ports, with an import cost of 5300 - 5400, suppress the futures market. The initial crushing of sugar mills in Yunnan occurred two days ago, and Guangxi sugar mills are expected to start centralized crushing in mid - to late November, which may create new selling pressure. However, as the current futures market is close to the domestic sugar - making cost, the futures market is expected to show a resistant decline before the domestic new sugar is launched [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Domestic Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, on November 5, 2025, the price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5720 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5660 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Dali, Yunnan it was 5520 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; and in Rizhao, Shandong it was 5820 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. Futures Market - The price of SR01 was 5441 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; SR05 was 5393 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan; and the spread between SR01 and SR05 was 48, down 2 [4]. Exchange Rate and International Market - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.1503, up 0.0071; the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB was 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB was 0.084, down 0.0004. The price of the ICE raw sugar main contract was 14.21, unchanged; the price of the London white sugar main contract was 573, up 3; the price of the Brent crude oil main contract was 64.35, unchanged [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - India's sugar production is expected to recover significantly in the 25/26 sugar season [1] - The global sugar supply is expected to be in a shortage situation, with a shortage of 230,000 tons in the 25/26 sugar season and 4.88 million tons in the 24/25 sugar season [3] - The trend strength of sugar is -1, indicating a weak outlook [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - The raw sugar price is 14.12 cents per pound, down 0.1 from the previous period; the mainstream spot price is 5,680 yuan per ton, down 10; the futures main - contract price is 5,441 yuan per ton, down 40 [1] - The 15 - spread is 48 yuan per ton, down 2; the 59 - spread is 0 yuan per ton, up 4; the mainstream spot basis is 239 yuan per ton, up 30 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Pay attention to the changes in China's syrup and premix import policies [1] - Brazil's sugar production in the second half of September increased by 11% year - on - year, but its exports decreased, raising concerns about global consumption. Brazil exported 3.25 million tons in September, a 16% year - on - year decrease [1] - China imported 550,000 tons of sugar in September, an increase of 150,000 tons [1] 3.3 Domestic Market - The CAOC expects China's sugar production in the 25/26 sugar season to be 11.2 million tons, consumption to be 15.9 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons [2] - As of the end of September in the 24/25 sugar season, China produced 11.16 million tons of sugar, an increase of 1.2 million tons; sold 10.48 million tons, an increase of 870,000 tons; and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 93.9%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points [2] - As of the end of September in the 24/25 sugar season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 4.63 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons [2] - In the 25/26 sugar season, the Guangxi Sugar Association expects Guangxi's sugar production to be around 6.7 million tons, with a lower sugar - extraction rate and unchanged sugarcane purchase prices; the Yunnan Sugar Association expects Yunnan's production to be around 2.6 million tons [2] 3.4 International Market - The ISO first predicted a global sugar supply shortage of 230,000 tons in the 25/26 sugar season and 4.88 million tons in the 24/25 sugar season [3] - As of October 1, in the 25/26 sugar season, the cumulative crushing of sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 2.99 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 33.52 million tons, an increase of 280,000 tons [3] - The ISMA/NFCSF expects India's total sugar production in the 25/26 sugar season to be 34.35 million tons (previous forecast: 34.9 million tons), with 3.4 million tons used for ethanol production and a net sugar production of 30.95 million tons [3] - In the 24/25 sugar season, Thailand's cumulative sugar production was 10.08 million tons, an increase of 1.27 million tons [3]

Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report - Date: November 5, 2025 - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [2][3] Market Review and Operation Suggestions Futures Market - SR601 closed at 5,481 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.04%, with a position reduction of 3,969 contracts - SR605 closed at 5,431 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan or 0.26%, with a position increase of 5,201 contracts - US Sugar 03 closed at 14.68 cents/pound, up 0.25 cents or 1.73%, with a position increase of 6,787 contracts - US Sugar 05 closed at 14.24 cents/pound, up 0.19 cents or 1.35%, with a position increase of 1,513 contracts [7] Market Performance - On Monday, New York raw sugar futures rebounded slightly, with the March contract up 1.72% to 14.68 cents/pound - London ICE white sugar futures' December contract rose 1.8% to $423.30/ton - The sugar price rebounded technically after hitting a new low - The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures declined. The 01 contract closed at 5,481 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.04%, with a position reduction of 3,969 contracts - Domestic spot prices in production areas declined slightly. Nanning sugar was quoted at 5,710 yuan/ton, and Kunming sugar at 5,600 yuan/ton - The domestic market was relatively calm. Market research institutions believe that Guangxi is likely to increase production this year - Zhengzhou sugar's rebound was weak, mainly because large speculative short - sellers stopped reducing positions [7][8] Industry News India - India Ratings and Research said that the increase in sugarcane prices in Uttar Pradesh will increase sugar mills' costs by 8%. Therefore, price increases for sugar and ethanol are crucial for maintaining profits - The Uttar Pradesh government decided to raise the sugarcane guidance price (SAP) for the 2025 - 26 crushing season by 30 rupees per quintal, which may increase the production cost of sugar mills in the state by about 8%. Unless sugar and ethanol prices rise, it will pressure the profitability of sugar mills - This move raises the standard guidance price to 400 rupees per quintal, which was frozen for two years. It is expected to increase the production cost of sugar mills in Uttar Pradesh, which accounts for 35 - 40% of India's total sugar production, by 2.5 to 3 rupees per kilogram. The impact will appear from the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026 as old inventories are consumed [9] Brazil - According to Unica data, in the first half of October 2025, there were 255 production units operating in the central - southern region of Brazil (3 fewer than the same period in the previous crushing season), including 234 engaged in sugarcane processing, 10 using corn to produce ethanol, and 11 flexible factories. During this period, 12 factories ended sugarcane processing - Sugarcane crushing volume was 34.037 million tons, a slight increase of 0.30% year - on - year, but with regional differences. The crushing volume in São Paulo state decreased by 5.04% year - on - year to 18.904 million tons, while that in other states increased by 7.88% to 15.133 million tons - Sugarcane's sugar yield (ATR) was 158.78 kg/ton, a decrease of 0.96% year - on - year - Sugar production was 2.484 million tons, an increase of 1.25% year - on - year. However, the proportion of sugarcane used for sugar production decreased by 3 percentage points to 48.2% (47.33% in the same period last year). The declines in São Paulo and Paraná states were more significant, reaching 3.4 and 9.1 percentage points respectively - Total ethanol production was 2.013 billion liters, a decrease of 1.17% year - on - year. Among them, anhydrous ethanol production increased by 6.93% to 772 million liters, hydrous ethanol production decreased by 5.61% to 1.241 billion liters, and corn - based ethanol production reached 370.56 million liters, an increase of 4.94% year - on - year [9][10] Data Overview Futures Trading Data - The table shows the trading volume, position changes of the top 20 members in the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures. The total trading volume was 206,336 lots, a decrease of 31,355 lots; the total long position was 247,781 lots, a decrease of 1,228 lots; the total short position was 291,926 lots, a decrease of 2,142 lots [22]

Core Insights - Brazil's sugar production for the 2025/26 season is projected to be 45.02 million tons, an increase from the previous estimate of 44.50 million tons in August [1] - The sugarcane production for the same season is expected to be 666.45 million tons, slightly down from the August estimate of 668.80 million tons [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In early October, the progress of sugarcane crushing and sugar production in Brazil slowed down significantly, indicating a weakening production rhythm in the later stage of crushing [2]. - In the domestic market, the forecasted arrival of out - of - quota raw sugar in October is 174,500 tons, and the import volume is expected to decrease month - on - month. Affected by news such as syrup and premixed powder, there is support at the lower level. However, the loose supply - demand situation still exerts pressure on the sugar market, and sugar prices will mainly operate at a low level in the short term [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5,481 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan; the main contract position is 368,822 lots, a decrease of 3,969 lots [2]. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 7,432, a decrease of 30; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 49,848 lots, an increase of 2,894 lots [2]. - The total forecast of valid warehouse receipts for sugar is 1,586, an increase of 1,000 [2]. Spot Market - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,057 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 4,122 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan [2]. - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,139 yuan/ton, an increase of 66 yuan; the estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,225 yuan/ton, an increase of 67 yuan [2]. - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan; in Nanning, it is 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou, it is 5,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the planting area of sugarcane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. - The cumulative national sugar production is 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 54,900 tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 9.9998 million tons, an increase of 449,800 tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of sugar is 550,000 tons, a decrease of 280,000 tons; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 3.2458 million tons, a decrease of 498,200 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,502 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,437 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan [2]. - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 334 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 539,100 tons, an increase of 85,000 tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1.5917 million tons, a decrease of 184,100 tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 7.52%, an increase of 0.28%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 7.32%, an increase of 0.08% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 7.46%, an increase of 0.05%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.83%, a decrease of 0.07% [2]. Industry News - In the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, a total of 26 sugar mills in Mongolia and Xinjiang have started crushing, with an expected total output of about 1.4 million tons [2]. - The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) rose 0.22 cents, or 1.50%, to settle at 14.65 cents per pound. The sugarcane harvest in northern Brazil is progressing slowly, while sugar mills in the central - southern region are still gradually shutting down [2]. - In the first half of October 2025, sugar mills in the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 34.037 million tons of sugarcane, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%; produced 2.484 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 1.25%; the sugar - making ratio was 48.24%, higher than 47.33% in the same period last year [2]. - As of October 16 in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season (April 2025 - March 2026), the cumulative sugarcane crushing in the central - southern region of Brazil was 524.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.78%, and the cumulative sugar production was 36.016 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.89% [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant growth in China's sugar imports, with a notable increase in both quantity and value in September 2025 compared to the previous year [1][2] - According to data from Chinese customs, the sugar import volume reached 550,000 tons in September 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 35.8% [1] - The import value for the same period was $23.5 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.1% [1] Group 2 - The report titled "2025-2031 China Sugar Industry Market Panorama Assessment and Investment Prospect Planning" by Zhiyan Consulting provides insights into the future of the sugar industry in China [1] - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research and providing comprehensive consulting services for investment decisions [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent trend of foreign sugar is weak, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar trend is relatively strong, and the near - month contracts are stronger than the far - month contracts. In the long - term, the divergence between domestic and foreign trends of Zhengzhou sugar's main contract 01 is unsustainable. There is increasing pressure above 5500, and the probability of short - sellers re - entering the market increases [6][9] - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the sugar market. Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors include the increase in global sugar production, the expected surplus in the new year, the foreign sugar price falling below 15 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window leading to increased import impact [7] Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Brazil's central - southern region produced 36.016 million tons of sugar in the current sugar - making season as of the first half of October, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. Czarnikow raised the expected global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season to 740,000 tons, 120,000 tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX predicted a global sugar market surplus of 277,000 tons in the 2025/26 season. ISO estimated a global sugar supply deficit of 231,000 tons in the 2025/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, China produced 11.1621 million tons of sugar in the 2024/25 season, sold 10 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons [4] - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5740, and the basis for the 01 contract is 241, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [6] - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, which is neutral [6] - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6] - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position is increasing, and the main trend is bearish [6] 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecasts by Institutions**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 global sugar supply and demand. ISO expects a supply deficit of 20,000 tons (basically balanced); StoneX expects a surplus of 277,000 tons; Czarnikow expects a surplus of 620,000 tons (another mention is 750,000 tons); Datagro expects a surplus of 153,000 tons; Covrig Analytics expects a surplus of 420,000 tons; Alvean/Louis Dreyfus expects a surplus of 40,000 tons; Green Pool expects a surplus of 115,000 tons [36] - **China's Sugar Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, the estimated sugar production is 1.12 million tons, imports are 500,000 tons, consumption is 1.59 million tons, and the balance change is 12,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be between 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [38] - **Import Cost**: As of the end of October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imports was about 5086 yuan per ton. The international sugar price has been falling, and the import profit is considerable [44] 5. Position Data - Not provided in the content