Core Insights - Weak demand has raised alarms, leading to a significant reduction in India's sugar consumption forecast, indicating a shift in supply-demand dynamics [1] - The potential for a turnaround in white sugar price trends remains uncertain amidst these changes [1] Group 1: Demand and Consumption - India's sugar consumption forecast has been drastically lowered due to weak demand [1] - This decline in consumption is expected to impact the overall sugar market significantly [1] Group 2: Supply-Demand Dynamics - A new supply-demand landscape is emerging in the sugar industry, influenced by the changes in India's consumption patterns [1] - The industry is closely monitoring how these shifts will affect white sugar prices moving forward [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international sugar market is in a pattern of strong current situation and weak future expectations. The 24/25 sugar season has a relatively large short - term supply, making the current situation strong, while the 25/26 sugar season is expected to see increased production and inventory accumulation, resulting in weak expectations. The New York raw sugar price, although having dropped significantly from its peak, is still over - valued compared to other major agricultural products [1][28]. - The pricing anchor of the domestic sugar market has shifted to the cost of out - of - quota imports. Whether in the 24/25 or 25/26 sugar seasons, due to tightened policies on syrup and premixed powder imports, the market needs out - of - quota imports to fill the supply gap [1][26][28]. - The SR2509 contract first trades based on expectations and then on reality. As the contract approaches delivery, the pricing anchor will gradually shift from the expectation of a decline in out - of - quota import costs to the reality of a tight domestic spot market supply [2][29]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 SR2509 Contract Oscillates Downward, and the Basis Widens - Since April 2025, the price of the SR2509 contract has oscillated downward, and the basis has risen from a minimum of 173 yuan/ton in early April to a maximum of 327 yuan/ton, being at a relatively high level in the same historical period [5]. - The international and domestic market fundamentals are strong. The international market has a supply shortage in the 24/25 sugar season, and the Brazilian and Indian production situations are not optimistic. The domestic market has tightened import policies and faced drought in the Guangxi production area. The weak expectations come from the global economic recession expectation and the expected increase in production and inventory accumulation in the 25/26 sugar season. The SR2509 contract is priced based on expectations, and as the raw sugar price drops, the futures price moves down, causing the basis to widen [6]. 3.2 The Tug - of - War between Reality and Expectation 3.2.1 SR2505 Contract Pricing Benchmark Situation - The SR2505 contract price shows an "N" - shaped trend, and the basis shows a "W" - shaped trend. Since December 2024, the Nanning spot price has fluctuated, and the SR2505 contract generally follows the spot price. The basis fluctuates between 0 - 250 yuan/ton and shows a "W" - shaped trend. Since the end of April 2025, the basis of the SR2505 contract has strengthened significantly [10]. - The SR2505 contract is priced based on the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan. The Zhengzhou sugar registered warehouse receipts are increasing, and the delivery pressure will be concentrated on the SR2509 contract. The warehouse receipts are mainly from beet sugar and Yunnan sugar [12][14][15]. 3.2.2 SR2509 Contract Pricing Benchmark Situation - The SR2509 contract is priced based on expectations, and the basis fluctuates greatly. It generally follows the spot price, and the basis fluctuates between 100 - 350 yuan/ton. Since its listing, it has been mainly priced based on expectations, and its price is more closely linked to the out - of - quota import cost. The large fluctuation of the basis is mainly contributed by the fluctuation of the futures price [19]. - In the past three sugar seasons, the Zhengzhou sugar September contracts have maintained relatively high bases. The reasons for the high bases of SR2309, SR2409, and SR2509 contracts are different, including factors such as unexpected production reduction in the Northern Hemisphere, large imports of syrup and premixed powder, and the difference between international and domestic market situations [21]. 3.2.3 International and Domestic Market Fundamental Situations - In the 24/25 sugar season, the global sugar supply is short by 547,000 tons. The shortage is at a relatively high historical level, indicating a tight supply situation. The expected production in Brazil and India has decreased [23]. - In the 25/26 sugar season, major institutions generally expect an increase in production and inventory accumulation in the global sugar market, with expected supply surpluses of different magnitudes. The expected production in Brazil and India will increase [25]. - The core of the domestic sugar market trading is still the total import volume and structure. The CAOC data shows that the production and consumption in the 24/25 and 25/26 sugar seasons change slightly. Due to tightened policies on syrup and premixed powder imports, the market needs out - of - quota imports to fill the supply gap, and the pricing anchor has shifted to the out - of - quota import cost [26]. 3.3 Pricing Anchor: First Trade on Expectations, Then on Reality - The international market is in a pattern of strong current situation and weak future expectations. The domestic market's pricing anchor has shifted to the out - of - quota import cost [1][28]. - The SR2509 contract first trades based on expectations and then on reality. As it approaches delivery, the pricing anchor will shift from the expectation of a decline in out - of - quota import costs to the reality of a tight domestic spot market supply [2][29].

专题报告 2025-05-19 白糖：5 月可能是糖价的转折点 农产品研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 13352843071 yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 报告要点： 原糖 5 月合约在交割前大幅下跌，叠加巴西中南部开始新榨季生产，外盘价差结构开始走弱， 或意味着国际市场供应最紧张的阶段已经过去。国内方面，虽然当前产销情况良好，整个 4 月 贸易商做多基差，大量采购现货并在盘面上卖出套保，使得 4 月产销率创新高。但随着盘面价 格下跌，价格更具竞争力的基差糖流入市场。另一方面，外盘价格下跌后进口利润窗口打开， 未来进口供应将陆续增加，5 月可能是糖价从强变弱的转折点。 农产品研究 | 白糖 国际市场供应最紧张的阶段已经过去 在北半球主产国中，泰国早在 4 月 8 日就已经全部收榨。据 Ocsb 数据显示，泰国 2024/25 榨 季累计食糖产量为 1005 万吨，同比上年度增产 128 万吨，但产量低于此前 1050 万吨的市场预 期。印度方面，虽然目前尚未完全收榨，但生产也接近尾声。据 ISMA 数据显示，4 月 15 日至 30 日印度产糖量仅 26.5 万吨 ...

行业 白糖日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 19 日 021-60635732 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：洪辰亮 请阅读正文后的声明 研究员：王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：期货行情 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 收盘价（元/吨 | | 美分 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoint - The domestic sugar price has limited upside and downside space, oscillating between 5,800 - 6,000 yuan/ton. The international sugar price also has limited fluctuation due to mixed fundamental factors, and macro factors like crude oil price fluctuations also impact it. Short - term trading is recommended [58][59] Summary by Directory 1. Sugar Market Analysis Futures Price - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) sugar futures prices fluctuated narrowly this week, with a weekly increase of 0.27%. ICE sugar futures oscillated at a low level, with a weekly decline of 0.9% [8] Spot Price and Basis - Not elaborated in the provided content National Production and Sales - In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the cumulative sugar sales rate in April was 65.22%, 7.49 percentage points faster than the same period last year [18] Sugar Imports - In March, imports were 80,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons year - on - year. Based on the ICE sugar July contract price of 18 cents/pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil is 4,937 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota import cost is 6,288 yuan/ton; from Thailand, the in - quota import cost is 4,897 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota import cost is 6,235 yuan/ton [23] Domestic Industrial Inventory - In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory in April was 3.8626 million tons, a decrease of 344,800 tons compared to the same period last year [26] ZCE Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total number of ZCE sugar warehouse receipts plus forecasts was 32,930, a decrease of 329 from the previous week. There were 31,553 warehouse receipts and 1,377 valid forecasts [34] Brazil's Production Progress - In the second half of April, the cumulative crushing volume was 34.257 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.98%, and the sugar production was 1.58 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 38.62% [38] Brazil's Bi - weekly Sugar - making Ratio - The bi - weekly cumulative sugar - making ratio from sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 45.27%, compared to 46.98% in the same period last year [40] Brazil's Monthly Sugar Exports - Brazil's sugar exports in April were 1.5526 million tons, a decrease of 335,000 tons compared to the same period last year [47] International Main Production Area Weather - Precipitation in India has increased. Rainfall in the main production areas of Brazil has decreased, which is beneficial for sugarcane crushing [54][55] 2. Market Outlook - Domestic market: The domestic sales progress is the fastest since 2025, with sugar mills completing nearly 70% of sales in an increased - production context, leading to strong industry reluctance to sell. However, due to the foreign market falling below 17 cents/pound, there is an import profit in the domestic market, and imports are expected to increase significantly. With the recent issuance of import quotas (about 2.6 million tons), sugar supply is relatively abundant. Although it is the off - season for consumption, market expectations for consumption are not overly pessimistic as the weather warms up. - International market: The production data in the second half of April in southern Brazil was significantly lower than market expectations, providing short - term support for sugar prices. There are concerns about the total sugar production due to the low sugar - making ratio. India's sugar ending inventory is expected to be 4.8 - 5 million tons, sufficient to meet domestic demand before the new sugar is on the market [58]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The market focus has shifted to the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season. Currently, multiple institutions expect increased sugar production in Brazil and India, leading to a global sugar supply surplus. In the domestic market, imports decreased in Q1, domestic sugar sales were fast, and inventory pressure was relatively light. For Zhengzhou sugar futures, due to the weak international sugar prices and insufficient domestic positive support, a volatile approach should be adopted [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Sugar Market Information Summary - **Thailand**: As of March 23, 2024/25, Thailand's sugar production was 9.9758 million tons, a 14.58% increase (1.2698 million tons) compared to the same period last year [4]. - **Domestic**: The sales - to - production ratio is at a high level in the same period over the years, and sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season is expected to increase slightly [5]. - **Price Information**: For Zhengzhou sugar futures, due to weak international sugar prices and insufficient domestic positive support, a volatile approach should be taken [6]. Fundamentals - **CFTC Net Long Positions**: Net long positions have changed little recently and remain at a low level in the same period over the years [7]. - **Brazil**: - By the end of April 2025/26, Brazil's cumulative sugar production was 1.58 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 38.62%. In April, exports were 1.5558 million tons, and the number of ships waiting at ports increased. Multiple institutions expect an increase in Brazil's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season compared to the previous year. The ICE - ethanol - to - sugar price spread is 3.34, with minor fluctuations. Import profit is positive but has declined from recent highs [7][18]. - **India**: By the end of April, India's cumulative sugar production was 25.695 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.33%. Multiple institutions expect an increase in India's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season compared to the previous year [7]. - **China**: The sugar association raised China's sugar production in the 2024/25 season by 150,000 tons to 11.15 million tons. It is predicted that the sugar - crop planting area in 2025/26 will be 1,440 thousand hectares, a 3.2% increase from the previous year, and sugar production will reach 11.2 million tons. The cumulative sales - to - production ratio in April was 65.22%, the highest in the same period in the past 25 sugar - making seasons [7]. Global Sugar Supply and Demand and Related Institutions' Forecasts - **Green Pool**: Predicts a slight global sugar supply surplus of 1.15 million tons in the 2025/26 crushing season. Global sugar production is expected to increase by 5.3% to 199.1 million tons, and consumption is expected to increase by 0.95% to 197 million tons [11]. - **Datagro**: Predicts a global sugar supply surplus of 1.53 million tons in the 2025/26 crushing season. Brazil's central - southern region's sugar production is expected to reach 42.04 million tons, India's to increase from 26 million tons to 31.6 million tons, and Thailand's from 10.05 million tons to 11.18 million tons [12]. Brazil - **Production**: By the end of April, the bi - weekly sugar production in the central - southern region was 856,000 tons, and the cumulative production was 1.58 million tons [13]. - **Export**: In April, exports were 1.5558 million tons, and the number of waiting ships at ports increased [18]. - **Ethanol Situation**: The sugar - ethanol price spread is 3.34, with minor fluctuations [22]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Multiple institutions expect an increase in Brazil's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season compared to the previous year. Julio Maria Borges predicts that Brazil's sugar exports in 2025/26 will remain at 35.1 million tons, and production will increase by 5% to 46 million tons [24][26]. India - **Market**: As of the end of April 2024/25, India's sugar production was 25.695 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.33%. The number of operating sugar mills decreased by 4 to 19 compared to the same period last year, and the crushed sugar - cane volume decreased by 11.44% [27][32]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: StoneX predicts India's sugar production in 2025/26 to be 32.3 million tons, and the USDA predicts it to reach 35 million tons, a 26% increase from the revised estimate of this season [36]. Thailand - **Sugar Production**: As of March 23, 2024/25, Thailand's cumulative crushed sugar - cane volume increased by 12.2%, sugar - cane sugar content increased by 0.27%, sugar - production rate increased by 0.227%, and sugar production increased by 14.58% to 9.9758 million tons [39]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Virit Viseshsinth predicts Thailand's sugar production in 2024/25 to reach 10.39 million tons, an 18% increase year - on - year [42]. United States - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 crushing season, the United States' sugar production and ending inventory are expected to decrease. Production is expected to be 9.285 million tons, and ending inventory is expected to be 1.436 million tons [43][44]. Domestic Market - **Sales**: The cumulative sales - to - production ratio is the highest in the same period in the past 25 sugar - making seasons [46]. - **Import**: In March, imports were 61,300 tons, at a low level of cumulative imports for the year [48]. - **Trade**: Import profit has declined from its high level [52]. International Sugar Market - **Net Long Positions**: CFTC fund net long positions remain at a relatively low level [56]. Zhengzhou Sugar - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Basis and warehouse receipts have reached "phased" highs [59].

法律意见书 法律意见书 国浩律师（南宁）事务所 的 关于 法律意见书2024 年年度股东大会 广西农投糖业集团股份有限公司 的 的 法律意见书 法律意见书 致：广西农投糖业集团股份有限公司 国浩律师（南宁）事务所受广西农投糖业集团股份有限公司（以下简 称"公司"）的委托，指派刘卓昀律师、肖雅婷律师（以下简称"本律师"） 作为公司召开 2024 年年度股东大会（以下简称"本次股东大会"或"会 议"）的专项法律顾问，对本次股东大会的召开全过程进行见证并出具法 律意见。 现出具法律意见如下： 法律意见书 一、本次股东大会的召集、召开程序 国浩律师（南宁）意字(2025)第 5000-2 号 为出具法律意见，本律师出席了本次股东大会的会议，并审查了公司 提供的有关会议文件、资料。公司承诺：其已向本律师提供了出具法律意 见所必须的、真实的书面材料。本律师已证实书面材料的副本、复印件与 正本、原件一致。 基于对上述文件、资料的审查，本律师根据《中华人民共和国公司法》 《中华人民共和国证券法》《上市公司股东会规则》《广西农投糖业集团 股份有限公司章程》（以下简称《公司章程》）等有关规定，按照律师行 业公认的业务标准、道德规 ...

国际糖组织（ISO）预警全球糖市缺口将暴增至546万吨，为何糖价不涨反跌？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

2025 年 5 月 15 日 研究员：王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 行业 白糖日报 日期 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635732 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：洪辰亮 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：期货行情 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 收盘价（元/吨 | 美分/磅） | 涨跌 | ...

Group 1: Weather Impact and Crop Area - The drought in early 2025 has temporarily affected the company's ability to assess its impact on sugarcane growth, but recent rains have alleviated the situation [2] - The company's sugarcane planting area for 2024 is approximately 779,000 acres, representing a year-on-year increase of 15% [2] Group 2: Profitability and Sugar Production - The company's gross profit margin for 2024 remains stable despite falling sugar prices, attributed to higher sugar content in sugarcane and a consistent decrease in production costs [2] - The expected sugar production for the 2024/2025 season is based on the same planting area of 779,000 acres, with slight growth anticipated for the 2025/2026 season, contingent on future weather conditions [2][3] Group 3: Pricing and Financial Management - The sugarcane purchase price for the 2024/2025 season is set at 510 CNY/ton for ordinary varieties and 530-540 CNY/ton for superior varieties, with the 2025/2026 prices yet to be determined [3] - The company has reduced its financing scale as part of cost-cutting measures, leading to a decrease in financial expenses, although the rate of reduction is expected to slow down [3]