Core Viewpoint - Hengli Petrochemical reported a slight increase in total revenue and net profit for 2024, despite a challenging market environment characterized by declining oil prices and chemical product price indices [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved total revenue of 236.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.65% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.044 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.01% [1] - In Q4, the company recorded approximately 58.5 billion yuan in revenue, a decrease of 5.12% year-on-year and 10.29% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Q4 net profit was around 1.9 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 61.03% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 78.39% [1] - The company proposed a dividend of 0.45 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of approximately 45% [1] Industry Insights - The decline in crude oil prices has led to a decrease in the price index of chemical products, yet the company managed to maintain year-on-year growth due to cost advantages and tax refunds [1] - The refining sector experienced a notable decline in gross profit year-on-year, influenced by weak demand for refined oil and significant drops in the profitability of pure benzene and PX aromatics [1] Market Trends - Since 2025, the price spread between refined oil and crude oil has slightly improved, with the ethylene-naphtha spread increasing by over 6% and the PX-naphtha spread rising by more than 50% [2] - The cost of Brent crude oil has decreased by approximately 10%, along with declines in the prices of various coal types [2] - The ongoing restructuring of the refined oil market has led to a decrease in the operating rates of independent refineries, which may improve the outlook for long-process private refineries [2] Capital Expenditure and Future Prospects - The company has completed the commissioning of several high-performance resin and new materials projects, indicating a peak in capital expenditure [2] - Future dividend potential is expected to be strong as the company transitions from high capital spending to a focus on returns to shareholders [2][3] - Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 8.066 billion yuan, 9.699 billion yuan, and 12.413 billion yuan, respectively [3] Investment Recommendation - The company is currently under initial coverage with a "recommended" rating, reflecting positive expectations for its financial performance and dividend potential [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company demonstrated resilience in operations, with expectations for significant performance growth throughout the year [3] - The refining industry is entering a phase of stock competition, where advanced leading capacities are likely to benefit continuously [3] - Technological breakthroughs are enhancing product competitiveness, with promising growth potential in high-end chemical products [3] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 57.024 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.34% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.54% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.051 billion yuan, down 4.13% year-on-year but up 5.78% quarter-on-quarter - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 1.239 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.88% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 112.75% - Basic earnings per share were 0.29 yuan, down 3.33% year-on-year but up 3.57% quarter-on-quarter [1][3] Industry Insights - The international oil price showed a two-phase trend in Q1 2025, initially declining and then rebounding due to geopolitical factors - The average Brent oil price in Q1 2025 was $75 per barrel, down 8% year-on-year but up 1% quarter-on-quarter - The company’s refining products, PTA, and new materials experienced price declines of 2.5%, 16.6%, and 16.5% respectively, reflecting a seasonal demand slowdown [3] Production and Sales - The production and sales rates for refining products, PTA, and new materials were 91%, 98%, and 87% respectively, showing improvements compared to the previous year [3] Cash Flow - The company reported a net operating cash flow of 7.746 billion yuan in Q1 2025, indicating strong cash flow generation capabilities [3] Profit Forecast - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 8.112 billion yuan, 9.090 billion yuan, and 10.287 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.2%, 12.0%, and 13.2% [6]

证券研究报告 大炼化周报：国际油价先涨后跌， 长丝市场产销持续低位 能源化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 能源化工研究助理：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600123070007 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2025年4月20日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 2 目录 1. 大炼化周度数据简报 2. 大炼化周报 3. 风险提示 3 目录 ◼ 【国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪】国内重点大炼化项目本周价差为2601.59元/吨，环比-120.02元/吨（环比- 4.41%）；国外重点大炼化项目本周价差为914.45元/吨，环比-20.92元/吨（环比-2.24%）。 ◼ 【聚酯板块】本周POY/FDY/DTY行业均价分别为6393/6643/7739元/吨，环比分别-250/-271/-207元/吨， POY/FDY/DTY行业周均利润为62/-38/93元/吨，环比分别-111/-125/-82元/吨，POY/FDY/DTY行业库存为 29.4/31.9/34.4天，环比分别+2.6/+2. ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of 15.22 CNY based on its strong operational performance and growth potential [5]. Core Insights - The company has established a comprehensive integrated layout across the entire industrial chain, enhancing its operational performance and dividend potential. In 2023, the company's revenue reached 234.9 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 5.62% [1][2]. - The company’s refinery has a higher proportion of heavy oil feedstock (60%), yet it maintains a leading complexity and processing depth in the industry, thanks to advanced technologies such as ebullated bed hydrocracking [2][46]. - The profitability of the company's products is expected to improve continuously, particularly in the aromatics and polyester segments, driven by a decrease in supply growth and low inventory levels [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Integrated Refining and Chemical Platform - The company has developed a "one drop of oil to all things" business layout, expanding from its origins in textile manufacturing to a comprehensive petrochemical platform [10]. - The company’s revenue has shown steady growth, exceeding 234.9 billion CNY in 2023, with a significant contribution from refining products, which accounted for over 51% of total revenue [23][17]. - The company has a strong cash position, with 27.7 billion CNY in cash as of Q3 2024, and is expected to reduce capital expenditure intensity, enhancing its dividend potential [26][30]. 2. Refinery Efficiency and Cost Advantages - The company’s refinery demonstrates a higher conversion rate and cost advantages, with a significant portion of heavy oil feedstock processed efficiently [2][46]. - The application of ebullated bed hydrocracking technology has significantly enhanced the refinery's competitiveness, allowing for higher conversion rates of heavy oil into more valuable products [55][52]. - The integration of coal chemical projects provides additional cost advantages, supplying hydrogen and other chemicals to the refinery [58][65]. 3. Profitability Improvement and Domestic Substitution - The company is expanding into new materials, with a focus on high-performance resins and biodegradable materials, which are expected to enhance its product offerings and reduce reliance on bulk chemicals [67]. - The aromatics segment has a significant production capacity of 4.5 million tons per year, with potential for profitability recovery as downstream demand improves [68]. - The polyester segment is poised for profitability improvement due to a slowdown in supply growth and low inventory levels, which is expected to drive demand [81][76].