【聚酯板块】本周POY/FDY/DTY行业均价分别为6789/7100/7986元/吨，环比分别 +61/+57/+57元/吨，POY/FDY/DTY行业周均利润为35/-25/-34元/吨，环比分别+18/+16/+16 元/吨，POY/FDY/DTY行业库存为13.8/22.7/27.8天，环比分别-2.3/-0.6/-0.4天，长丝开工率为 90.7%，环比+0.1pct。下游方面，本周织机开工率为60.1%，环比+2.1pct，织造企业原料库 存为14.2天，环比+1.9天，织造企业成品库存为28.2天，环比-1.8天。 【炼油板块】国内成品油:本周汽油/柴油/航煤价格下跌。美国成品油:本周美国航煤价格 下跌。 东吴证券近日发布大炼化周报：国内成品油:本周汽油/柴油/航煤价格下跌。美国成品油: 本周美国航煤价格下跌。周POY/FDY/DTY行业均价分别为6789/7100/7986元/吨，环比分别 +61/+57/+57元/吨，POY/FDY/DTY行业周均利润为35/-25/-34元/吨，环比分别+18/+16/+16 元/吨，POY/FDY/DTY行业库存为13.8/22.7/27.8天，环比分别 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 石油加工行业 刘红光 石化行业联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525060002 邮箱：liuhongguang@cindasc.com 刘奕麟 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524040001 邮箱：liuyilin@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 本期内容提要： [Table_Title] 大炼化周报：长丝需求有所回暖，库存、产销 情况改善 [Table_ReportDate0] 2025 年 8 月 24 日 [Table_Author] [Table_Summary] ➢ 国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪：截至 8 月 22 日当周，国内重点大炼 化项目价差为 2431.20 元/吨，环比变化+29.59 元/吨（+1.23%）； 国外重点大炼化项目价差为 1080.63 元/吨，环比变化-29.81 元/吨（- 2.68%）。截至 8 月 22 日当周，布伦 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" as the industry index is expected to outperform the benchmark [137]. Core Insights - The report highlights that mainstream filament enterprises are reducing production, while downstream concentrated purchasing is driving inventory reduction [2]. - The Brent crude oil weekly average price as of August 15, 2025, was $66.33 per barrel, reflecting a decrease of 2.00% [2][3]. - The domestic key refining project price difference was 2400.36 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 27.32 CNY/ton (+1.15%) [2][3]. - The report indicates a mixed performance in the chemical sector, with some products experiencing price increases due to supply constraints [2]. Summary by Sections Refining Sector - Market sentiment is cautious due to geopolitical events and rising U.S. oil production, leading to a slight decline in international oil prices [2][13]. - Domestic refined oil prices are fluctuating, with diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene averaging 7015.71 CNY/ton, 8122.57 CNY/ton, and 5978.29 CNY/ton respectively [13]. Chemical Sector - The report notes that the cost support for chemicals is weak, leading to varied price movements, but overall price differences are expanding [2][40]. - Polyethylene prices have seen a slight increase, with LDPE, LLDPE, and HDPE averaging 9535.71 CNY/ton, 7314.00 CNY/ton, and 8000.00 CNY/ton respectively [48]. Polyester Sector - The polyester industry chain is experiencing stable prices, with significant inventory reduction in filament due to production cuts and concentrated purchasing [2][99]. - The average price for polyester filament is reported at 6717.86 CNY/ton for POY, 7060.71 CNY/ton for FDY, and 7928.57 CNY/ton for DTY [99]. Market Performance of Major Refining Companies - As of August 15, 2025, the stock price changes for six major refining companies were as follows: Rongsheng Petrochemical (+0.88%), Hengli Petrochemical (-0.59%), Dongfang Shenghong (+0.34%), Hengyi Petrochemical (+2.35%), Tongkun Co. (+6.16%), and Xin Fengming (+8.70%) [124]. - Over the past month, the stock price changes were: Rongsheng Petrochemical (+7.21%), Hengli Petrochemical (+8.36%), Dongfang Shenghong (+3.24%), Hengyi Petrochemical (+3.22%), Tongkun Co. (+17.49%), and Xin Fengming (+21.50%) [124].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" as the industry index is expected to outperform the benchmark [127]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant drop in oil prices, leading to an expansion in the price spread of refining products. As of August 8, 2025, the Brent crude oil average price was $67.67 per barrel, reflecting a decrease of 4.90% [2][12]. - Domestic key refining project price spread reached 2378.22 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 42.27 CNY/ton (+1.81%), while the international key refining project price spread was 1097.94 CNY/ton, up by 74.40 CNY/ton (+7.27%) [2][3]. - The report discusses various segments including refining, chemicals, and polyester, indicating a general trend of price declines in chemical products, although some products saw price increases due to supply constraints [2][35][72]. Summary by Sections Refining Sector - The report notes that the market is currently weighing the impacts of tariff agreements and economic data, which have led to concerns about demand. The U.S. crude oil production reached a record high in May, contributing to oversupply expectations [2][12]. - Domestic refined oil prices are fluctuating, with diesel, gasoline, and aviation fuel averaging 7077.57 CNY/ton, 8173.43 CNY/ton, and 5972.93 CNY/ton respectively [12]. Chemical Sector - The chemical sector is experiencing widespread price declines, with some products seeing price increases due to reduced supply. For instance, the price of acrylonitrile increased slightly due to supply reductions [2][35]. - Polyethylene prices showed minor fluctuations, while the price spread significantly widened, indicating a favorable market condition for producers [41][57]. Polyester Sector - The polyester sector is facing weak cost support due to falling oil prices, leading to price declines in upstream materials like PX, PTA, and MEG. The average price of PTA is currently 4684.29 CNY/ton, with an industry average net profit of -264.65 CNY/ton [81][90]. - The report indicates that the demand for polyester products remains weak, particularly in the downstream market, which is still in a seasonal lull [90][99].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [1]. Core Insights - The cost side supports the price increase of long filament yarns, with domestic and foreign refining project price differentials showing positive trends [2]. - The polyester sector shows varied performance with POY, FDY, and DTY average prices increasing, while profits remain under pressure for FDY and DTY [2]. - The refining sector indicates a decline in domestic gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel prices, reflecting broader market trends [2]. - The chemical sector shows a decrease in PX average price, but the price differential with crude oil has improved [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Refining Projects Price Differential - Domestic refining project price differential is 2548 CNY/ton, up by 186 CNY/ton (8% increase) week-on-week [2]. - Foreign refining project price differential is 1103 CNY/ton, up by 79 CNY/ton (8% increase) week-on-week [2]. 2. Polyester Sector - Average prices for POY, FDY, and DTY are 6725 CNY/ton, 7011 CNY/ton, and 7932 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week increases of 4 CNY, 25 CNY, and 25 CNY [2]. - Weekly average profits for POY, FDY, and DTY are 18 CNY/ton, -58 CNY/ton, and -44 CNY/ton respectively, with significant week-on-week profit increases for POY and FDY [2]. - Inventory levels for POY, FDY, and DTY are 19.7 days, 25.7 days, and 30.0 days respectively, with slight increases week-on-week [2]. 3. Refining Sector - Domestic gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel prices have decreased, reflecting a broader trend in the market [2]. - The average price of gasoline in the US has also seen a decline, indicating a similar trend in the international market [2]. 4. Chemical Sector - PX average price is 838.7 USD/ton, down by 16.1 USD/ton week-on-week, but the price differential with crude oil has improved to 344.7 USD/ton, up by 9.3 USD/ton [2]. - PX operating rate remains stable at 82.4% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report is a weekly briefing on large - scale refining and chemical industries, presenting the latest data on key projects' spreads, various product prices, profits, inventories, and operating rates, as well as the performance of related listed companies [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Big Refining Weekly Data Briefing - **Stock Price and Market Value of Listed Companies**: On August 1, 2025, the stock prices of companies like Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and others were reported, along with their total market values, and the data on their changes in stock prices over different time periods such as the past week, month, three - month, and one - year were presented. The profit forecasts for these companies from 2024 to 2027 were also provided [8]. - **Oil Price and Refining Spread**: The average price of international crude oil (Brent and WTI) this week increased compared to last week, with Brent at $71.2 per barrel (up 3.3%) and WTI at $68.0 per barrel (up 2.7%). The spreads of domestic and foreign key refining projects decreased, with the domestic spread at 2403.5 yuan/ton (down 3.4%) and the foreign spread at 1025.4 yuan/ton (down 7.0%) [8]. - **Polyester Sector**: The average prices of POY, FDY, and DTY increased this week, with POY at 6721.4 yuan/ton (up 142.9 yuan/ton), FDY at 6985.7 yuan/ton (up 171.4 yuan/ton), and DTY at 7907.1 yuan/ton (up 103.6 yuan/ton). The weekly average profits of POY, FDY, and DTY improved, but the inventory days increased, and the operating rate of filament decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 91.9%. The operating rate of downstream looms decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 55.5%, and the raw material inventory of weaving enterprises increased by 1.2 days to 10.4 days, while the finished - product inventory increased by 0.3 days to 30.7 days [2][10]. - **Refining Sector**: The prices of diesel and aviation kerosene in China and the United States decreased this week [2][10]. - **Chemical Sector**: The average price of PX this week was $854.9 per ton (up $5.6 per ton), and the spread compared to crude oil was $335.4 per ton (down $10.8 per ton), with an operating rate of 82.4% (unchanged) [2][10]. 3.2 Big Refining Weekly Report - **2.1 Big Refining Index and Project Spread Trends**: It mainly shows the changes in the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index, the petroleum and petrochemical index, and oil prices, as well as the weekly spreads of domestic and foreign large - scale refining projects [14][19]. - **2.2 Polyester Sector**: It presents multiple data such as the prices, profits, inventories, and operating rates of PX, PTA, MEG, POY, FDY, DTY, polyester staple fiber, polyester bottle chips, and the operating rate of downstream weaving [24][33][38]. - **2.3 Refining Sector**: It includes the prices, spreads, and related data of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in China, the United States, Europe, and Singapore [83][98][111][121]. - **2.4 Chemical Sector**: It shows the prices, spreads, and related data of various chemical products such as polyethylene LLDPE, homopolymerized polypropylene, EVA foaming materials, EVA photovoltaic materials, styrene, PC, acrylonitrile, and MMA [131][132][139].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The prices of filaments and staple fibers weakened in the week. The domestic key large refining project spread increased slightly, while the foreign spread decreased slightly. The profits of the polyester filament industry declined, and the inventory decreased. The prices of domestic and US refined oil products showed a downward trend. The PX price increased, and the spread with crude oil widened, but the PX operating rate decreased [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Big Refining Weekly Data Briefing 3.1.1 Price and Spread of Key Refining Projects - The spread of domestic key large refining projects this week was 2,526 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 45 yuan/ton (1.8%). The spread of foreign key large refining projects was 1,098 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton (-1.1%) [2][8]. 3.1.2 Polyester Plate - **Product Prices and Profits**: The average weekly prices of POY/FDY/DTY were 6,579/6,814/7,804 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 25/18/75 yuan/ton. The weekly average profits were - 155/-264/-205 yuan/ton, with week - on - week decreases of 76/71/109 yuan/ton. The price of polyester staple fiber was 6,617.1 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 32.9 yuan/ton, and the profit was 36.6 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 81.1 yuan/ton [2][9]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The inventory of POY/FDY/DTY was 15.5/20.3/28.1 days respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 9.9/5.3/2.6 days. The operating rate of filaments was 92.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 percentage points. The operating rate of downstream looms was 55.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 percentage points. The raw material inventory of weaving enterprises was 10.4 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.2 days, and the finished product inventory was 30.7 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 days [2][9]. 3.1.3 Refining Plate - **Domestic Refined Oil**: The prices of diesel and jet fuel decreased this week. - **US Refined Oil**: The US gasoline price decreased this week [2]. 3.1.4 Chemical Plate - The average PX price this week was 849.3 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.7 US dollars/ton. The spread with crude oil was 346.3 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8.1 US dollars/ton. The PX operating rate was 82.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8 percentage points [2][9]. 3.1.5 Related Listed Companies - Private large refining and polyester filament companies include Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengyi Petrochemical, Tongkun Co., Ltd., and Xin Fengming [2]. 3.2 Big Refining Weekly Report 3.2.1 Big Refining Index and Project Spread Trends - The report shows the changes in the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, the petroleum and petrochemical index, and the oil price, as well as the market performance of six private large refining companies and the weekly spreads of domestic and foreign large refining projects [13][15][18]. 3.2.2 Polyester Plate - The report presents multiple data related to the polyester industry chain, including the prices and spreads of crude oil, PX, PTA, MEG, and various polyester products, the operating rates of related products, inventory days, and sales - to - production ratios [24][37][45]. 3.2.3 Refining Plate - The report analyzes the prices and spreads of refined oil products in different regions (domestic, US, Europe, and Singapore) and their relationships with crude oil prices [79][93][105]. 3.2.4 Chemical Plate - The report shows the prices and spreads of various chemical products such as polyethylene, polypropylene, EVA, and styrene and their relationships with crude oil prices [130][135][138].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Neutral" based on the performance of the industry index relative to the benchmark [135] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant reduction in inventory for polyester filament due to concentrated purchasing by downstream users, alongside a slight increase in upstream prices [1][96] - Brent crude oil prices experienced fluctuations, with a weekly average of $68.91 per barrel, reflecting a decrease of 0.27% [1][2] - The report indicates that the domestic price difference for key refining projects is 2387.33 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 2.44% [2][1] Summary by Sections Refining Sector - The report notes that international oil prices rose initially due to a drone attack in Iraq but later fell due to concerns over economic activity and tariff negotiations [1][14] - Domestic and international refined oil prices are experiencing fluctuations, with domestic diesel and gasoline prices at 7117.86 CNY/ton and 8179.14 CNY/ton respectively [14] Chemical Sector - Demand for chemical products remains weak, leading to a slight decrease in price differentials for various chemicals [1][55] - Polypropylene prices have slightly decreased, with the average price at 6311.86 CNY/ton [70] Polyester Sector - The PX market is seeing a slight increase in supply, with prices rising to 6036.48 CNY/ton, and the PTA market is also showing price increases [87][98] - The report indicates that the average price for polyester filament is stable, with significant inventory reduction due to increased purchasing [96] Market Performance of Major Refining Companies - The report tracks the stock performance of six major refining companies, with notable increases in stock prices over the past week and month [123][124] - The overall performance of the refining index has increased by 26.53% since September 2017, outperforming the broader market [124]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Cautious" based on the current market conditions and projections for the petrochemical sector [127]. Core Insights - The report highlights a weak demand for polyester end products, leading to a decline in prices and profitability [1]. - The Brent crude oil average price for the week ending July 18, 2025, was $69.09 per barrel, reflecting a decrease of 0.91% from the previous week [1][2]. - Domestic and international refining project price differentials are tracked, with domestic projects showing a price differential of 2462.77 CNY/ton, down 1.21% week-on-week, while international projects increased by 3.84% to 1100.64 CNY/ton [2]. Refining Sector Summary - The report discusses the impact of U.S. tariffs on Brazil and OPEC's downward revision of global oil demand growth forecasts, which raised concerns about future demand [1]. - International oil prices experienced fluctuations, with Brent and WTI prices at $69.28 and $67.34 per barrel, respectively, as of July 18, 2025 [1]. - Domestic refined oil prices have generally declined, while Southeast Asian refined oil prices remain relatively stable [1]. Chemical Sector Summary - The report notes a weak performance in chemical product prices due to anticipated supply increases, with polyolefins showing slight price declines [1]. - Specific chemical products such as EVA and styrene have shown stable yet declining prices, while pure benzene prices have increased slightly [1]. Polyester Sector Summary - The polyester sector is experiencing a downward shift in price levels, with PX market supply remaining tight but raw material support weakening [1]. - The average price for PTA is reported at 4732.14 CNY/ton, with an average loss of 253.97 CNY/ton in profitability [1][91]. - The report indicates that the demand for polyester products remains weak, with textile market orders being low [1]. Performance of Major Refining Companies - The report tracks the stock performance of six major refining companies, with notable weekly changes including Rongsheng Petrochemical (+2.33%) and Xin Fengming (+2.11%) [1][114]. - Over the past month, Rongsheng Petrochemical has increased by 5.28%, while Hengli Petrochemical has decreased by 2.81% [1][114].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a weekly update on the large refining and chemical industry, covering various aspects such as price trends, profit margins, inventory levels, and开工 rates in different sectors including polyester, refining, and chemicals. It also provides data on the stock performance and earnings forecasts of major private refining and chemical companies [2][8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Big Refining Weekly Data Briefing - **Stock Performance and Earnings Forecast**: The report tracks the price changes of 6 major private refining companies over different time - frames (weekly, monthly, quarterly, yearly, and year - to - date in 2025). It also provides earnings forecasts for these companies from 2024 to 2027, including total market capitalization, net profit attributable to shareholders, PE, and PB [8]. - **Oil Prices and Refining Spreads**: International crude oil prices (Brent and WTI) decreased this week. The domestic refining project spread remained stable with a 0.0% week - on - week change, while the foreign refining project spread decreased by 9.4% week - on - week [8]. - **Polyester Sector**: - **Raw Materials and Intermediate Products**: PX average price decreased by $17.0/ton week - on - week, and its spread over crude oil decreased by $29.4/ton. MEG price increased by 14.3 yuan/ton, and PTA price decreased by 185.0 yuan/ton. - **Polyester Filament**: POY, FDY, and DTY prices decreased, and their profit margins also declined. Inventory levels of POY, FDY, and DTY increased, while the开工 rate of polyester filament increased to 91.9%. The downstream weaving开工 rate decreased to 56.2%, and the raw material inventory of weaving enterprises decreased, while the finished product inventory increased [2][9]. - **Other Polyester Products**: The price of polyester staple fiber decreased, but its profit margin increased. The price of polyester bottle - grade chips decreased, and its profit margin also decreased [9]. - **Refining Sector**: - **Domestic Refined Oil**: The prices of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in China decreased this week. - **US Refined Oil**: The prices of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in the US increased this week. - **European and Singaporean Refined Oil**: The prices of refined oil products in Europe and Singapore showed different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [9]. - **Chemical Sector**: The prices and spreads of various chemical products such as pure benzene, styrene, acrylonitrile, and polyethylene decreased to varying degrees [9]. 3.2 Big Refining Weekly Report - **2.1 Big Refining Index and Project Spread Trends**: The report may contain data on the performance of the big refining index and the spread trends of domestic and foreign refining projects, but specific data is not fully presented in the provided text [11][12]. - **2.2 Polyester Sector**: It includes multiple data series related to the polyester sector, such as the relationship between crude oil, PX, PTA, and polyester filament prices, profit margins,开工 rates, inventory levels, and production and sales rates [22][23][37]. - **2.3 Refining Sector**: It provides detailed data on the relationship between crude oil and refined oil prices (gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene) in different regions (China, the US, Europe, and Singapore), including price spreads and changes [79][89][94]. - **2.4 Chemical Sector**: It presents data on the relationship between crude oil and various chemical product prices (such as polyethylene, polypropylene, EVA, etc.), including price spreads and changes [129][130][134].