文字早评 2025/10/20 星期一 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、北京时间 10 月 18 日上午，国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝森特和贸易代表格 里尔举行视频通话，双方同意尽快举行新一轮中美经贸磋商; 2、中银理财董事长黄党贵："存款搬家"已开始出现 预计为理财行业提供新机会； 3、部分中小银行密集调降存款利率； 4、寒武纪第三季度营收为 17.27 亿元，同比增长 1332.52%；净利润为 5.67 亿元。紫金矿业：前三季度 归母净利润同比增长 55%。 【策略观点】 经过前期持续上涨后，AI 等高位热点板块近期出现分歧，资金高低切换，快速轮动，市场风险偏好有所 降低。本周中美关税的担忧再次扰动市场，短期指数面临一定的不确定性。但从大方向看，政策支持资 本市场的态度未变，中长期仍是逢低做多的思路为主。 国债 【行情资讯】 行情方面：周五，TL 主力合约收于 115.870 ，环比变化 0.79%；T 主力合约收于 108.295 ，环比变化 0.12%；TF 主力合约收于 105.780 ，环比变化 0.07%；TS 主力合约收于 102.378 ，环比变化 0.02%。 消息 ...

我们对铝的结构性看涨前景受到了一些阻力，但无人能挑战支撑我们的分析数据。趋势性的铝终端需求 增长要求在可预见的未来每年增加超过300万吨的供应……中国的原生铝加工政策表明，政府现在可以 接受境外铝与中国铝竞争……标志着他们愿意将电力优先分配给数据中心/AI和机器人等其他行业。 铜市共识看涨，锌市前景黯淡 铝市分歧加剧，多空激辩 花旗坚持其铝的"结构性看涨"立场，认为年超300万吨的需求增长与印尼无法成为"下一个中国"的供应 瓶颈将推高价格。然而，报告坦承在LME周上遭遇了"重大反驳"。尽管无人能推翻其需求数据，但市场 对结论的广泛分歧，暗示着铝价上行之路并非共识。 与铝不同，市场对铜的未来普遍看涨，但看涨逻辑各异。花旗报告指出，这些逻辑"涵盖了纸面上的 2026年赤字、宏观驱动的资金流入……以及为利用COMEX-LME更阔的价差而出现的库存消耗潜力"。 SHMET 网讯：花旗研究在10月16日发布的《Metal Matters》报告中，提炼了本年度LME周的市场核心 情绪：对铝的看法严重分歧，对铜的牛市几乎成为共识，而对锌的熊市预期则伴随着挥之不去的短期不 确定性。 相比之下，与会者普遍看跌2026年锌的供需 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company provided information regarding the associated rare metals found in the Li Jiakeng lithium mine, including niobium, tantalum, beryllium, and tin [1] Company Information - Chuaneng Power (000155.SZ) responded to an investor inquiry on October 20, detailing the presence of other rare metals alongside lithium in the Li Jiakeng mine [1]

国庆节过后，铁矿石期现货市场呈现出先涨后跌的走势。节后伊始，几内亚西芒杜矿区安全事故扰乱了 供应预期，叠加中方拟对美籍船舶征收特别港务费，引发了市场对运输成本上升的担忧，铁矿石价格一 度大幅拉涨。然而，随着中美贸易摩擦预期再度升温，加上国内钢铁终端需求持续疲软，在高估值的市 场环境下，铁矿石价格出现快速回调，进入补跌阶段。 关注宏观政策的变化 铁水产量出现小幅回落，进口矿日耗也同步下滑，45港疏港量近一个月持续走低，华北部分钢厂已择机 安排高炉检修。 7月下旬以来，铁矿石、焦炭等原料价格一直维持高位震荡态势，而成材价格的下跌速度却显著快于成 本端。以华东长流程钢厂为例，螺纹钢生产利润从年内高点时的近300元／吨，迅速回落至仅20元／ 吨，已处于盈亏边缘。 目前，市场的核心矛盾聚焦于钢厂极低的利润水平。尽管日均铁水产量仍维持在240万吨以上，但随着 亏损面的扩大，倒逼钢厂减产的逻辑持续发挥作用。倘若成材价格继续走弱，钢厂的检修范围有望进一 步扩大，铁水产量回落的预期也将得到进一步强化。 港口库存或逐步累积 近期，中美贸易摩擦预期再度升温，11月即将举行的APEC峰会能否促成中美元首会面，并达成"关税缓 释"，成 ...

17、公告精选︱紫金矿业：前三季度净利润378.64亿元，同比增长55.45%；广大特材：董事长兼总经理 徐卫明已解除留置； 18、A股投资避雷针︱华夏幸福：累计未能如期偿还债务金额合计240.07亿元。 1、本周大事提醒：中国三季度GDP、中国二十届四中全会将召开，美国CPI、制造业PMI等数据； 2、上周五美股三大指数集体收涨，超微电脑、ARM跌超3%，中概指数跌0.14%； 3、特朗普：对华加征100%关税不可持续； 4、特朗普签署行政令 对进口中型和重型卡车征收25%关税； 5、美国官员据报探讨特朗普与金正恩会面可能性； 6、"特朗普全程在骂人"，上周五与泽连斯基再现"白宫争执"； 7、美媒：英伟达与台积电推出首片在美国制造的Blackwell芯片晶圆； 8、黄仁勋将出席亚太经合组织CEO峰会，计划与全球领导人和韩企高管见面； 9、日本自民党与维新会就结盟基本达成一致，高市早苗或大概率被选举为新任首相； 10、本周美股数十家公司将发布财报； 11、加沙硝烟再起：以军誓将报复哈马斯的袭击 哈马斯回应则称不知情； 1、召开在即！一张图，带你了解二十届四中全会； 2、何立峰与贝森特视频通话，同意尽快举行新一 ...

我国白银储量位居全球前五之列，约占全球白银总储量11%，共有1500多个银矿，其中2018年探明的内蒙古赤峰市巴林左旗双尖子山矿区银铅矿，被世界白 银协会认定为亚洲第一、世界第五大银矿。不过，我国银矿的资源禀赋不佳，矿石中有用物质的含量较低。 央视网消息：白银是重要的工业金属和贵金属，我国的白银储量如何？基本的供需情况怎么样？ 在我国，白银消费中工业需求驱动更为明显，2024年，我国白银总消费9428吨，工业需求量就达到8567吨，其中电气与电子领域占比较大，需求量达6577 吨。 目前我国白银供给主要是来自矿端和回收。2024年，我国白银的矿端产量为3426吨，回收量为1233吨。随着银应用领域的不断增长，目前国内资源已不能满 足需求，需进口银矿产品和其他精矿来补充缺口。 今年以来，白银价格涨势明显。纽约商品交易所COMEX白银10月17日价格一度触及每盎司53.765美元，较今年1月2日价格29.985美元累计上涨超过70%。 ...

Group 1: China-US Economic Relations - Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng held a video call with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Trade Representative Katherine Tai to discuss important issues in bilateral economic relations and agreed to hold a new round of economic consultations soon [1] Group 2: Local Government Debt Management - The Ministry of Finance will continue to advance the new local government debt limit for 2026 ahead of schedule, focusing on major strategic projects and supporting local governments in resolving hidden debts and overdue payments to enterprises [2] Group 3: Financial Market Opening - The People's Bank of China aims to enhance the transparency and efficiency of financial markets, attract more foreign institutional investments, and support the construction of Shanghai as an international financial center [3] Group 4: Deposit Rate Adjustments - Several small and medium-sized banks have recently lowered deposit rates, with Shanghai Huari Bank reducing its three-year fixed deposit rate from 2.3% to 2.15%. Analysts expect further interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter [4] Group 5: Corporate Governance Regulations - The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced new corporate governance guidelines effective January 1, 2026, aimed at regulating the behavior of controlling shareholders and enhancing transparency in related party transactions [5] Group 6: Financial Performance of Companies - Cambrian's Q3 revenue reached 1.727 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1332.52%, with a net profit of 567 million yuan. The company’s total revenue for the first three quarters was 4.607 billion yuan, up 2386.38% [6] - Zijin Mining reported a 10.33% increase in revenue to 254.199 billion yuan for the first three quarters, with a net profit of 37.864 billion yuan, reflecting a 55.45% year-on-year growth [8] Group 7: Trade Tariffs - President Trump signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on imports of medium and heavy trucks and parts, effective November 1, along with a 10% tariff on imported buses [9] Group 8: Market Events - Upcoming significant events include the release of China's Q3 macroeconomic data and the latest LPR values, as well as meetings involving the Federal Reserve and APEC finance ministers [11] Group 9: Investment Strategies - CITIC Securities suggests that after the end of the dividend rotation, investors should closely monitor new strategic themes related to resource security and supply chain safety, which may persist into the next year [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that China's export growth is entering a new phase in 2024-2025, with an overall high growth rate expected, driven by various factors including fiscal expansion in developed economies and increased global demand for new industrial products [2][5][6]. Export Growth Analysis - In September, China's exports increased by 8.3% year-on-year, maintaining a high level, with a month-on-month growth of 2.1%, consistent with seasonal averages [3][5]. - The third quarter saw a year-on-year export growth of 6.6%, aligning with expectations, despite a seasonal low of 1.0% month-on-month [5]. - For the fourth quarter, a simple calculation suggests a year-on-year growth of 3.6% if the month-on-month growth aligns with the seasonal average [5]. Historical Context - From 2000 to 2011, China's export growth averaged 21.8%, significantly outpacing global export growth of 11.0% [6]. - The period from 2012 to 2019 saw a decline in China's export growth, averaging only 3.7%, while global export growth was around 0.7% [7]. - The years 2020 to 2023 experienced high volatility in exports, with China’s growth fluctuating in response to global supply chain disruptions [7]. Future Projections - In 2024, global exports are projected to grow by 2.3%, while China's exports are expected to grow by 5.8% [8]. - The article predicts that in 2024-2025, China's export growth will exceed global growth by more than double, driven by factors such as fiscal policies in developed countries and increased demand for high-tech products [6]. Regional Export Dynamics - Exports to ASEAN and Africa have shown significant growth, with cumulative year-on-year increases of 14.7% and 28.3% respectively in the first nine months of the year [10]. - Exports to Africa have been particularly strong, with a year-on-year growth of 56.4% in September [10]. Product Export Performance - High-end product exports are experiencing substantial growth, with exports of integrated circuits increasing by 32.7% and general machinery by 24.9% [11]. - In contrast, labor-intensive products like textiles and clothing have seen a decline in exports, with a combined year-on-year decrease of 5.8% [11]. Import Trends - In September, imports grew by 7.4% year-on-year, with significant increases in iron ore, copper, and integrated circuits [12]. - The acceleration in imports may be linked to policy-driven financial tools and project initiations, indicating potential improvements in investment for the fourth quarter [12].

Core Insights - Cangge Mining reported a revenue of 2.401 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.35%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.75 billion yuan, up 47.26% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 723 million yuan, representing a 28.71% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 950 million yuan, which is a 66.49% increase year-on-year [1] - The significant contribution to investment income from the associated company, Julong Copper, which produced 142,500 tons of copper and generated a net profit of 6.421 billion yuan, leading to an investment income of 1.95 billion yuan for Cangge Mining, accounting for 70.89% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Cangge Mining's revenue for the first three quarters reached 2.401 billion yuan, with a 3.35% year-on-year growth [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 2.75 billion yuan, reflecting a 47.26% increase year-on-year [1] - In Q3 alone, the company reported a revenue of 723 million yuan, marking a 28.71% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 950 million yuan, which is a 66.49% increase year-on-year [1] Group 2: Investment Contributions - Julong Copper's performance significantly boosted Cangge Mining's profitability, with an investment income contribution of 1.95 billion yuan, which is 70.89% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [1] - Julong Copper's copper production for the year reached 142,500 tons, with a revenue of 11.821 billion yuan and a net profit of 6.421 billion yuan [1] - The investment income from Julong Copper increased by 587 million yuan, a growth of 43.09% year-on-year [1] Group 3: Project Developments - The second phase of the Julong Copper Mine expansion project has made significant progress, with successful trial operations of the second concentrator [2] - The completion of the Julong Copper Mine's second phase is expected to increase annual copper production to between 300,000 and 350,000 tons, laying a solid foundation for future performance growth [2] - Cangge Lithium, a subsidiary of Cangge Mining, resumed lithium resource development activities after receiving approval, with production officially restarting on October 11, 2025 [2] Group 4: New Projects and Licenses - The Marmicuo Salt Lake project aims to produce 50,000 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate annually, with an estimated total investment of 4.537 billion yuan [3] - Cangge Potash Fertilizer, a wholly-owned subsidiary, received mining rights and permits, allowing for the development of lithium and boron resources alongside potassium salt [3] - The new permits are expected to enhance the long-term development of potassium salt and support the stability of potassium chloride supply, contributing to national food security [3]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) disclosed that seven companies have recently received domestic listing counseling registration from October 13 to 19, indicating a growing interest in IPOs within the market [1] Group 1: Newly Registered Companies - The seven companies that received counseling registration include Jiangsu Tianbing Aerospace Technology Co., Ltd., Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Co., Ltd., Xuyu Optoelectronics (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd., Shanghai Shanyuan Electronic Technology Co., Ltd., Qingdao Wuxiao Group Co., Ltd., Zhongke Fuhai Technology Co., Ltd., and Wuhu Youpai Nursing Products Technology Co., Ltd. [1] - Tianbing Technology is noted as another commercial rocket "unicorn" that has initiated listing counseling this year, having recently completed nearly 2.5 billion yuan in financing, setting a record for the largest single financing amount for a private rocket company in China [1] - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining is already listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a current market capitalization of nearly 6 billion Hong Kong dollars [1] Group 2: Previous IPO Attempts - Xuyu Optoelectronics, Shanyuan Technology, Wuxiao Group, and Youpai Co. have previously initiated IPO counseling [1] - Wuxiao Group attempted to enter the A-share market as early as 2014, having submitted an application to the Shanghai Stock Exchange's main board, but later withdrew the application within the same year [1]