海外供给方面，中金预计未来3-5年仅哈萨克斯坦、韩国或贡献主要增量。据佳鑫国际资源公告，公司 开发运营的哈萨克斯坦巴库塔钨矿已于2025年4月正式进入商业化生产，公司计划于2H25、2026、2027 年分别生产3638、10900、13665吨钨精矿（65%WO3口径），该行测算哈萨克斯坦巴库塔钨矿占到 2025-2027年全球原钨供给的比重有望达4%、7%、8%。 智通财经APP获悉，佳鑫国际资源(03858)涨超5%，截至发稿，涨5.25%，报37.68港元，成交额1279.65 万港元。 消息面上，中金指出，今年3月以来，中国钨精矿价格自14.2万元/吨上涨至9月10日28.8万元/吨高位， 随后回落至26.7万元附近企稳。10月中旬以来，钨价再度开启上涨行情，并连续创下历史新高。截至12 月5日，钨价达35.1万元/吨，年初至今涨幅高达147%。该行持续看好钨价牛市。未来3-5年全球钨供给 依然维持偏紧态势，但各国对钨资源的战略性动作值得关注。 ...

每日经济新闻 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 平安证券指出，2026年工业金属行业面临供应约束强化与需求弹性释放的双重驱动。上游资源端及中游 冶炼产能扰动持续，新能源需求韧性叠加AI等新兴产业打开远期增长极，宽松货币环境有望推动宏观 与基本面共振。有色金属方面，美元信用弱化及美联储降息预期支撑贵金属价格，黄金货币属性持续计 价；工业金属中铜、铝、锡等品种受资源约束、电力扰动及海外政策收紧影响，供需趋紧或推升价格中 枢。能源金属中锂、钴伴随主产国供给出清结束及储能需求增长，基本面改善显著。整体来看，弱美 元、供给收缩与新兴需求构成行业核心驱动。 矿业ETF（561330）跟踪的是有色矿业指数（931892），该指数从市场中选取涉及贵金属、工业金属等 矿产资源开发及相关产业的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映有色金属行业上市公司证券的整体 ...

Group 1 - Russia has implemented two significant policies: a complete ban on gold bar exports and a reduction of the personal gold carrying limit to 100 grams, while extending the ban on "unfriendly countries" from buying and selling shares in core Russian enterprises until the end of 2027 [1][3][5] - The restriction on gold exports is a strategic move to retain this critical asset amid increasing Western sanctions and financial instability, ensuring that Russia maintains a strong financial foundation for potential future crises [3][5] - The 100-gram limit for personal gold transport effectively prevents large-scale transfers while accommodating the needs of ordinary citizens, showcasing the precision of the policy design [5][7] Group 2 - The extension of the foreign investment ban is crucial for protecting Russia's economic lifeline, targeting strategic sectors such as energy, finance, and mining, which are vital to the country's economy [5][9] - The policy is not a blanket restriction; it includes provisions for presidential special permits and exceptions, allowing for flexibility while maintaining essential safeguards [7][9] - Russia's ability to implement these measures is supported by its status as a major gold producer, ensuring that domestic needs are met without disrupting internal economic cycles [7][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market demand for black building materials is weak, with steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, and thermal coal all showing downward or weakening trends [1][3][5][7] - For steel, the supply - demand fundamentals of building materials are improving, while those of plates need improvement through production cuts [1] - Iron ore is facing a situation where supply may increase and demand is weakening, and the accumulation of supply - demand contradictions may lead to price pressure [3] - The demand for coking coal and coke is soft, and the price of coking coal is falling, while the price of coke is under downward pressure [5][6] - The thermal coal market is also weak, with falling prices at the mine mouth and in ports, and a supply - demand pattern of loose supply [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are at 3079 yuan/ton and 3252 yuan/ton respectively. The spot market has weak trading, with poor speculative sentiment and mainly low - price terminal purchases [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply - demand fundamentals of building materials are improving, with declining consumption and production, and reduced inventory pressure. The supply - demand of plates needs improvement through production cuts to reduce seasonal inventory pressure. With the arrival of the off - season for building materials, attention should be paid to the impact on fundamentals and the changes in production cuts and profits [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be in a range - bound state, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore is weak. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties in Tangshan ports fluctuate slightly, and the trading volume in major ports is 113.7 million tons, a 1.25% increase from the previous period [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Supply has slightly increased this week. High prices may stimulate supply, but some inventories are locked. Demand is weakening, with a decline in daily average pig iron production and seasonal decline expectations. The supply - demand contradiction is accumulating, and price pressure may occur if external factors are removed [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be range - bound, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke are falling. The demand for coke in some regions is weak due to blast furnace maintenance, and the price of coking coal at the mine mouth is continuously falling. The price of imported Mongolian coal has also declined, with the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal dropping to about 970 yuan/ton [5] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The trading of coking coal is weak, and the supply - demand structure of coke is relatively loose. The price of coke is under downward pressure due to the weak cost side. Attention should be paid to the impact of autumn - winter environmental protection on enterprises and coal price trends [6] - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to trade in a range - bound state, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: The prices of thermal coal at the mine mouth in the main production areas are falling. The market demand is weak, with terminal demand - based procurement and traders having a bearish outlook. The port market is also weak, with rising inventories and difficult trading. The prices of both domestic and imported coal are falling, and imported coal has a cost - performance advantage [7] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price is in a range - bound state. In the long - term, the supply is loose, and attention should be paid to the consumption and inventory replenishment of non - power coal [7] - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the trends in China's iron ore imports for 2025, highlighting a "low first, high later" trajectory influenced by extreme weather and market dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Import Trends - In the first half of 2025, China's iron ore imports are expected to decline due to extreme weather, with major mining companies experiencing a significant drop in import volumes [1]. - Starting from the third quarter, the shipping volumes from the four major mining companies are gradually returning to normal, leading to a continuous increase in iron ore imports from June to October 2025 [1]. - In September 2025, iron ore imports increased by 11.7% year-on-year, reaching a historical monthly high, while in October, imports of iron ore and its concentrates totaled 11.131 million tons, up 7.2% year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Despite strong iron ore imports this year, stock levels at major Chinese ports are above seasonal averages but still below 2024 levels, indicating a complex market situation [1]. - Analysts from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia suggest that the declining profit margins of Chinese steel mills and low crude steel production are contributing to downward pressure on iron ore prices [1]. - A recent ban on certain supplies from BHP Group has temporarily supported prices, but its potential lifting could lead to an influx of products into the market, exacerbating downward pressure [3]. Group 3: Price Dynamics - The current rise in iron ore prices is attributed to speculative trading and capital market activities rather than genuine demand, according to the China Mineral Resources Research Institute [3]. - Accumulating port inventories and persistently weak actual demand are expected to exert substantial pressure on price increases, indicating that reliance on short-term speculation is insufficient to drive long-term price trends [3]. - Industry participants are advised to discern market signals rationally and remain cautious of prices deviating from actual supply and demand conditions to avoid following trends blindly [3].

1. Market Performance Overnight Stock Indices - US major stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.38% at 47560.29 points, the S&P 500 down 0.09% at 6840.51 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.13% at 23576.49 points [5] - European major stock indices also closed mixed, with the German DAX up 0.45% at 24153.3 points, the French CAC40 down 0.69% at 8052.51 points, and the UK FTSE 100 down 0.03% at 9642.01 points [6] Bond Yields - US Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 2 - year yield up 4.80 basis points to 3.615%, the 3 - year up 4.84 basis points to 3.652%, the 5 - year up 4.73 basis points to 3.788%, the 10 - year up 2.35 basis points to 4.188%, and the 30 - year up 0.81 basis points to 4.809% [6] Commodities - International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures up 0.45% at $4236.6 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 4.72% at $61.16 per ounce. Brent crude oil futures fell 0.61% to $62.11 per barrel [6] - London base metals all declined, with LME aluminum down 1.47% at $2845.50 per ton, LME copper down 1.42% at $11470.00 per ton, etc. [8] 2. Important Macroeconomic News China - Premier Li Qiang emphasized China's commitment to open - cooperation, stating confidence in achieving annual economic goals, with the economy set to maintain a stable and positive trend [10] Australia - RBA Governor Bullock highlighted upside inflation risks, stating that inflation and employment data will be crucial for the February meeting. The possibility of tightening policy was discussed, and a data - driven approach will be taken for future rate decisions [10] US - ADP's weekly employment report showed that private - sector employers added an average of 4750 jobs per week in the four weeks ending November 22 [10] 3. Futures Market News Energy and Chemical Futures - As of December 5, 2025, polyethylene social sample warehouse inventory was 45.65 million tons, down 2.99 million tons from the previous period, a 6.14% decrease. Chinese polyethylene import warehouse inventory decreased by 6.59% month - on - month and 9.83% year - on - year [13] - Iraq set the official selling price of Basra Medium crude oil for North and South America in January at a $1.15 discount to the Argus sour crude price, and for Asia at a $1.05 discount to the Oman/Dubai average price [13] - EIA's short - term energy outlook report predicted US crude oil production to be 13.85 million barrels per day in December, 13.86 million in November, and 13.71 million in January [14] Metal Futures - Chongqing launched a yellow alert for heavy pollution on December 9, affecting some recycled aluminum enterprises, which have started to reduce production or shut down [17] - A polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform, Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd., was established on December 9, 2025, with a registered capital of 3 billion yuan [17] Black - Series Futures - The General Administration of Market Supervision issued production license implementation rules for 24 industrial products, effective April 1, 2026 [20] - HeSteel Group's first - round inquiry price for silicon - manganese in December was 5700 yuan per ton, lower than the November price. The purchase volume was 14700 tons, also lower than in November [20] - Coking enterprises agreed to implement production cuts of at least 30% to ease supply pressure and stabilize prices, and to reduce or stop purchasing high - priced coal [20] - The Henan Bureau of National Mine Safety Supervision ordered Anyang Dazhong Coal Industry Co., Ltd. to suspend production for 1 day due to major accident hazards [21] - The China Iron and Steel Association warned that the recent rise in iron ore prices is due to capital speculation, and the high inventory and weak demand will suppress price increases [21] Agricultural Futures - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' December report on China's agricultural product supply - demand situation showed that the outlook for soybeans remained unchanged from November. High - protein soybeans in Northeast China are in short supply, while low - protein soybeans have a surplus [23] - As of December 7, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 90.3%, and the first - crop corn sowing rate was 71.3% [24] - China's imported soybean arrivals in December are expected to decline slightly. As of December 6, the average oil - mill operating rate was 57.42%, down 4.79% from the previous week [24] - Argentina reduced export taxes on soybeans, soybean by - products, wheat, barley, corn, and sorghum [25] - Brazil's expected exports of soybeans, soybean meal, and corn in December are 3.33 million tons, 1.83 million tons, and 6.3 million tons respectively, higher than previous forecasts [25] - The USDA maintained its forecast for US 2025/2026 soybean production at 4.253 billion bushels, ending stocks at 290 million bushels, and yield at 53 bushels per acre. It also kept the forecasts for Argentina and Brazil's soybean production unchanged [26] 4. Financial Market News Stock Markets - A - shares: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.37% to 3909.52 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.39%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.61%. Resource and Hainan - related stocks declined, while CPO concepts and some other sectors strengthened [28] - Hong Kong stocks: The Hang Seng Index fell 1.29% to 25434.23 points, with losses in sectors such as non - ferrous metals and semiconductors [28] - As of now, 1465 A - share listed companies have conducted share repurchases this year, with a total repurchase amount of 140.538 billion yuan. About 80% of these stocks have risen this year, and about 81.91% were profitable in the first three quarters [28] - Many state - owned banks have announced and implemented mid - year dividend plans, with the total cash dividend of the six major state - owned banks expected to exceed 200 billion yuan [29] - 23 listed securities firms have implemented mid - year dividends this year, with a total of 10.683 billion yuan distributed. Another 14 have announced plans to distribute 11.133 billion yuan [29] - In 2025, institutional research on the Beijing Stock Exchange increased significantly, with over 95% of companies being surveyed. YiFangDa Fund is authorized to launch an ETF tracking the HKEX Technology 100 Index [30] Overseas News - The UNCTAD reported that global trade will grow by about 7% (an increase of $2.2 trillion) in 2025, reaching a record $35 trillion [35] - The Fed is expected to cut rates for the third time, with market expectations of a 25 - basis - point cut. Trump said he would support a large - scale rate cut and might adjust tariffs [35] - ADP data showed that US private employers added an average of 4750 jobs per week in the four weeks ending November 22, ending four weeks of job losses. US job openings in October were 7.67 million, exceeding expectations [36] - Ukrainian President Zelensky is ready for elections and requests assistance from the US and Europe. The elections can be prepared within 60 - 90 days [37] - The Swiss government withdrew an incorrect announcement about the US tariff cut on Swiss goods. The Bank of Japan will gradually adjust monetary policy, and the RBA maintained the interest rate at 3.60% [37] International Stock Markets - US major stock indices closed mixed, with some large - cap stocks leading the decline. Japan's IPO financing reached the highest level since 2018, and Medline plans to raise up to $5.37 billion through an IPO [40] - SpaceX plans an IPO in mid - to - late 2026, depending on market conditions [42] Commodities - Precious metals rose, while oil prices fell due to concerns about increased US production and expected supply surplus in 2026. Base metals declined, and iron ore prices are under pressure from high inventory and weak demand [43] - EIA's report adjusted the price forecasts for Brent and WTI crude oil in 2025 and 2026 [44] - Russia's November crude oil production was over 100,000 barrels per day below the target, the largest gap in over two years [46] Bonds - The domestic bond market recovered, with bond yields falling and futures prices rising. US Treasury yields rose due to factors such as Fed policy expectations and inflation [47] Forex - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 20 basis points to 7.0693 at 16:30, and the US dollar index rose 0.14%. Non - US currencies mostly declined, except for the Australian dollar and the offshore RMB [48] 5. Upcoming Economic Indicators and Events Economic Indicators - Key indicators to be released include Japan's December Reuters Tankan index, China's November CPI/PPI, etc. [51] Events - Key events include the expiration of 793 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in China, speeches by central bank governors, and rate decisions by the Bank of Canada, etc. [53]

日度报告——综合晨报 美国官员称联储有充足降息空间，中国 A 股 缩量调整 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-12-10 宏观策略（黄金） 哈塞特：美联储有充足空间大幅降息 金价震荡收涨，白银大涨突破 60 美元关口，主要是受到美联储 降息预期的提振，哈塞特表示美联储有很大的降息空间再度提 振市场情绪，但当前贵金属对降息已经有充分定价。 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 美国 10 月 JOLTS 职位空缺升至五个月高点 综 临近 12 月利率会议，市场情绪转向谨慎，美国三大股指高位震 荡。 合 宏观策略（股指期货） 晨 A 股缩量调整，逾 4000 股下跌 报 A 股市场遭遇回调，我们认为主要受到政策影响，政治局会议更 强调跨周期调节，政策的加码或更倾向于相机抉择。股市预期 因而有所下修。建议观望中央经济工作会议的部署。 农产品（生猪） 罗牛山：2025 年 11 月销售生猪 6.54 万头 生猪近月主力合约快速上涨，盘面呈现高位震荡。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 11 月中国出口家用电器 37125.7 万台 有色金属（铜） BMI：全球关键矿产争夺战将重塑 2026 年市场格局 宏观短期避险情绪上 ...

当地时间12月9日，美股在美联储年内最后一次议息会议前夕交投谨慎，三大股指收盘涨跌不一。道指 受摩根大通拖累下跌0.38%，标普500指数微跌0.09%，纳指则小幅上涨0.13%。 市场普遍预期美联储将降息25个基点，但焦点已转向对未来利率路径的指引以及主席鲍威尔的会后措 辞。芝商所FedWatch工具显示，降息概率高达89.4%，显著高于一个月前的不足67%。 银行股承压，科技股分化 摩根大通股价单日重挫4.66%，创4月以来最大跌幅，因其高管Marianne Lake在会议上预计2026年全年 支出将达1050亿美元，远超华尔街预期。银行板块整体受压，金融业ETF收跌0.37%。 白银市场成为当日最大亮点。现货白银收涨4.33%，报60.653美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货涨4.72%，双 双创下历史新高。瑞达期货研究院研究员廖宏斌指出，从基本面看，据白银协会预测，2025年全球白银 市场仍将出现约9500万盎司的结构性供应缺口，为白银连续第五年呈供不应求格局。 "在降息预期升温、白银库存持续处于低位以及工业需求保持韧性的多重因素共振下，预计白银价格将 延续震荡偏强走势。"廖宏斌补充道。值得注意的是，白银 ...

美联储周二启动为期两天的政策会议，尽管通胀率仍高于2%的目标，交易员普遍预计本周将降息25个 基点。 近期政策制定者释放出混合信号：一部分官员担忧通胀卷土重来，另一些人则更担忧劳动力市场的健康 状况。 而美国劳工部最新发布的报告并未帮助澄清前景——10月职位空缺小幅上升，但招聘仍然疲软；此外， 美国独立企业联合会(NFIB)的报告显示，企业计划在未来增加岗位的意愿有所提升。 美东时间周二，美股三大股指收盘涨跌不一，投资者预计即便美联储本周降息，其措辞仍可能偏鹰；同 时，美国最大银行摩根大通警告2026年支出将大幅增加，拖累银行股表现，限制大盘涨幅。 ClearBridge经济与市场策略主管Jeff Schulze表示："当前市场倾向认为，美联储会因职位空缺数据而略 显鹰派。" 根据芝商所的FedWatch观察工具，交易员对明日降息25个基点的押注仍高达87%。而Schulze认为，明 天降息之后暂停进一步行动的可能性更高。 Gabelli Funds组合经理Justin Bergner指出，美债收益率持续走高也令股市承压。"美联储决议前，美债收 益率反弹，股市涨势暂歇并不意外。"10年期美债收益率当日升至4. ...

What makes this price action different is how broad the demand is. Silver is no longer only seen as a store of value. It is also now a critical industrial metal at the core of the clean-energy transition, and demand from manufacturing is pushing supply to its limits. The world needs silver for solar panels, EV batteries, semiconductors, medical devices, robotics, satellites, and advanced electronics. Industrial consumption has now crossed levels that miners cannot match at the current pace. Output is not s ...