Core Viewpoint - Lithium mining stocks are rebounding, driven by rising prices of lithium carbonate, with significant gains observed in various companies and ETFs in the non-ferrous metals sector [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 28, lithium mining stocks led the rebound, with notable increases: Shengxin Lithium Energy rose over 7%, Yahua Group over 6%, and several others over 3% [1]. - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a broad increase, with the non-ferrous leader ETF (159876) rising by 1.72%, and over the past 10 days, funds have increased by more than 230 million yuan [1]. - After six consecutive months of gains, the non-ferrous leader ETF (159876) experienced a monthly decline, prompting significant recent fund inflows, possibly to capitalize on a correction opportunity [1]. Group 2: Lithium Market Dynamics - Lithium mining stocks are expected to continue benefiting from the rising prices of lithium carbonate, with battery-grade lithium carbonate priced at 90,600-96,000 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [3]. - Long-term forecasts suggest that 2026 may mark a turning point for lithium carbonate supply and demand, driven by steady domestic demand and increasing energy storage needs [3]. - The lithium industry's darkest period is over, with a clear trend of improving supply and demand fundamentals [3]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Influences - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials and delayed economic data support expectations for interest rate cuts, with the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut in December rising from about 40% to over 80% [3]. - A Fed rate cut is anticipated to elevate the price levels of the entire non-ferrous metals sector, as it encourages investors to hold more tangible assets and makes metals cheaper in dollar terms [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - CITIC Construction expresses optimism for the non-ferrous sector, predicting a continued bull market through 2026, driven by new productive forces and China's rapid rise [4]. - The current cycle is seen as a "new productive force bull market," with different metals experiencing varying degrees of demand and market dynamics [4]. - The non-ferrous leader ETF (159876) and its associated funds provide comprehensive coverage across various metals, allowing for better risk diversification compared to investing in single metal sectors [4].

本周，沪指累涨1.4%，深成指、创指更为强势，周涨3.56%、4.54%，三大指数集体终结周线两连阴。 从月度来看，11月沪指开启4000点拉锯战，单月下跌1.67%，科技股波动较大，深成指、创指各跌 2.95%、4.23%。 展望后市，财信证券认为，短期内，继续等待放量长阳或者其他明确的回暖信号出现。预计12月中旬左 右，随着机构资金重新布局明年方向、美联储降息靴子落地。届时A股市场将迎来新一轮做多窗口期。 【ETF全知道热点收评】下面重点聊聊有色、化工、国防军工等几个板块的交易和基本面情况。 11月最后一个交易日（11月28日），三大指数集体红盘收官，沪指涨0.34%报3888.6点，创指涨0.7%。 市场交投较为清淡，全天成交1.6万亿元，量能降至近4个月地量水平。 | 序号 代码 类型 名称 | 现价 涨跌幅 ▼ 溢折率 成交额 | | --- | --- | | 1 159876 主 有色龙头ETF | 0.885 c 1.72% 0.06% 2335.55万 | | 2 516020 | 0.793 c 1.41% 0.19% 9718.70万 主 化工ETF | | 3 512810 主 国防军 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the optimistic outlook for the lithium industry, particularly regarding supply-demand dynamics and price forecasts for 2026 [1][12][19] - The lithium mining sector has seen significant stock price increases, with companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium expressing bullish sentiments about future lithium prices [1][15] - Predictions indicate that global lithium supply may reach 203,000 tons LCE by 2026, while demand could rise to 214,000 tons LCE, resulting in an 11,000-ton supply gap [17][18] Group 2 - The carbon lithium market has experienced a recovery after a decline, with prices rebounding from a low of 60,000 yuan/ton in June to new highs in November [3][5] - Speculative trading in the futures market has been volatile, with trading volumes fluctuating significantly due to regulatory adjustments by exchanges [5][6][10] - The trading environment has seen a shift, with trend-following funds remaining at historically high levels despite some speculative funds withdrawing [10][12] Group 3 - The lithium industry is characterized by a slow capacity reduction, with companies maintaining production levels and avoiding permanent shutdowns [12][15] - The demand for lithium is expected to be driven by the growth in energy storage and electric vehicle markets, with significant increases in production of energy storage cells reported [23][28] - The potential resumption of production at the Jiangxiawo lithium mine could introduce supply pressures, depending on market conditions and price levels [27][28]

作者丨董鹏 编辑丨朱益民 11月28日，A股锂矿板块涨幅居前。截至11月收官，电池板块已涌现出多只翻倍股，其中国晟 科技涨 155% ，华盛锂电涨 132% ，海科新源涨 122% 。 因交易所调控，阶段性降温的碳酸锂期货，新、老主力合约LC2605、LC2601亦回升至9.7万 元/吨和9.5万元/吨附近。 锂矿股的反复上涨、碳酸锂期货活跃度的提升，背后是行业供需关系的边际改善，以及业内对 2026年行业景气度提升的乐观预期。 继赣锋锂业董事长李良彬11月中旬明确"看涨"锂价后，天齐锂业董事长蒋安琪也认为2026年全 球锂行业有望达到供需平衡。 更有乐观的期货机构预测，2026年全球锂资源供应增长至203万吨LCE，同期需求则可能升至 214万吨LCE，从而产生11万吨的需求缺口。 当然，以上"锂业双雄"与期货机构的判断，只是站在当前节点、基于已知条件作出的预判，行 业供需如何演变依旧充满了太多的不确定因素。 比如，下半年由储能所引领的需求增长能否持续？后续锂价如何持续上涨、大幅领先宁德时代 枧下窝锂矿成本线后，会否刺激其加快复产？ 投机资金撤离，趋势资金仍在 "2025年碳酸锂的行情 并非简单的V型反转 ...

Group 1 - The core transaction of Tianqi Lithium Industries on November 28 involved a block trade of 132,500 shares, amounting to 6.8542 million yuan, with a transaction price of 51.73 yuan, representing a 6.00% discount compared to the closing price of the day [1][2] - The buyer of the block trade was CITIC Securities Co., Ltd. Beijing Headquarters, while the seller was CITIC Jinpu Securities Co., Ltd. Beijing Chaowai Street Securities [1] - Over the past three months, Tianqi Lithium has recorded three block trades with a total transaction value of 11.9953 million yuan [2] Group 2 - On the same day, Tianqi Lithium's closing price was 55.03 yuan, reflecting a 2.38% increase, with a daily turnover rate of 4.27% and a total transaction amount of 3.456 billion yuan [2] - The net inflow of main funds for the day was 265 million yuan, while the stock has seen a cumulative decline of 1.87% over the past five days, with a total net outflow of 112 million yuan [2] - The latest margin financing balance for Tianqi Lithium is 3.074 billion yuan, which has decreased by 64.852 million yuan over the past five days, representing a decline of 2.07% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium mining sector in A-shares is experiencing volatility, with recent price fluctuations in lithium carbonate futures and optimistic expectations for industry demand and supply balance by 2026 [1][2][19]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The lithium carbonate futures contracts LC2605 and LC2601 have rebounded to approximately 97,000 CNY/ton and 95,000 CNY/ton, respectively, following a period of price decline [1]. - The average spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has increased from a low of 60,000 CNY/ton in late June to a new high in mid-November, driven by factors such as production halts and surging demand from energy storage [2][4]. - The trading volume and speculative activity in the futures market have intensified, with the turnover ratio rising from 1.4 to over 2.2, indicating increased market engagement [6][11]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Forecasts - Predictions for 2026 suggest a global lithium supply increase to 2.03 million tons LCE, while demand may reach 2.14 million tons LCE, resulting in an 110,000-ton supply gap [2][16][19]. - Major industry players, including Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium, express optimism about achieving supply-demand balance by 2026, with potential price surges if demand growth exceeds expectations [14][19]. - The lithium supply chain is expected to remain resilient, with no significant closures or permanent shutdowns of mines anticipated, contributing to a stable supply outlook [13][14]. Group 3: Regulatory and Market Reactions - The futures market has seen regulatory adjustments, including increased transaction fees and margin requirements, aimed at cooling speculative trading [4][7][8]. - Following these regulatory changes, speculative funds have begun to withdraw, leading to a temporary cooling in the lithium carbonate futures market [8][10]. - Despite the withdrawal of speculative funds, trend-based investments remain high, indicating continued confidence in the long-term outlook for lithium prices [11][12]. Group 4: Short-term Variables - The ongoing production of energy storage batteries and the potential resumption of operations at the Jiangxiawo lithium mine are critical factors that could influence short-term supply and pricing dynamics [21][24][28]. - Current market sentiment is cautious, with downstream buyers primarily focusing on essential inventory replenishment rather than aggressive purchasing [26][29].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing fluctuations, with recent price increases in futures and stock prices, indicating a potential recovery phase after a period of volatility [2][6]. Group 1: Market Trends - On November 25 and 26, lithium carbonate futures saw a rebound, with the main contract rising by 4.47% and 1.37%, respectively, moving from approximately 90,000 yuan/ton to 94,500 yuan/ton [2]. - The Wan De lithium mining index increased by 2.99% on November 25 but fell by 0.38% on November 26, reflecting mixed market sentiment [2][7]. - The continuous destocking trend in lithium carbonate has shown signs of slowing down, with a total inventory of 118,400 tons as of November 21, only a slight decrease of 2,052 tons from the previous week [8]. Group 2: Demand Forecasts - Industry leaders predict significant growth in lithium demand, with Tianqi Lithium's chairman forecasting a global demand of 2 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent by 2026, driven by renewable energy and electric vehicle sectors [3][4]. - Ganfeng Lithium's chairman revised the 2025 global lithium demand forecast from 1.45 million tons to 1.55 million tons due to increased demand in the latter half of the year [3]. Group 3: Price Dynamics - As of November 25, the domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate price was 92,266 yuan/ton, reflecting a 21.56% year-on-year increase, while industrial-grade lithium carbonate was priced at 90,433 yuan/ton, up 21.99% year-on-year [8]. - The price fluctuations are attributed to the ongoing recovery in end-user demand, particularly in the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors, which are expected to drive prices higher in the medium to long term [8][10].

Core Insights - Tianqi Lithium conducted a block trade of 132,500 shares on November 28, with a transaction value of 6.8542 million yuan, representing 0.2% of the total trading volume for the day [1][2] - The transaction price was 51.73 yuan per share, which is a 6% discount compared to the market closing price of 55.03 yuan [1][2] Summary by Category - **Transaction Details** - Date of transaction: November 28, 2025 [2] - Security code: 002466 [2] - Security name: Tianqi Lithium [2] - Transaction price: 51.73 yuan [2] - Transaction volume: 132,500 shares [2] - Transaction amount: 6.8542 million yuan [2] - Buyer brokerage: CITIC Securities Co., Ltd. [2] - Seller brokerage: CITIC Jinshi Securities Co., Ltd. [2]

记者丨黎雨桐 编辑丨吴桂兴 11月28日，A股11月收官。沪指本月累计跌1.67%，月中续创十年新高后震荡回落，终结月线六连阳。 28日收盘，A股股指悉数飘红。 | 行情 | 资金净流入 | 涨跌分布 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 北证50 | | 3888.60 | 12984.08 | 1387.70 | | +13.34 +0.34% +108.89 +0.85% | | +5.38 +0.39% | | 科创50 | 创业板指 | 万得全A | | 1327.15 | 3052.59 | 6205.68 | | +16.45 +1.25% +21.29 +0.70% | | +47.36 +0.77% | | 沪深300 | 中证500 | 中证A500 | | 4526.66 | 7031.55 | 5440.94 | | +11.26 +0.25% | +80.27 +1.15% | +25.02 +0.46% | | 中证1000 | 深证100 | 中证红利 | | 7334.21 | 5694.00 | 5545.84 | | +76.76 +1 ...

配置上，建议采用"防御+景气"哑铃型策略：短期持有高股息、低估值的银行、电力等防御板块；同时 前瞻布局储能、军工、AI算力等景气领域，储能行业增速有望超40%，军工受益国防现代化需求，AI算 力在服务器出货翻倍驱动下需求刚性凸显。投资者需在震荡中保持耐心，灵活调整结构，为2026年机遇 蓄力。。 今天A股市场在窄幅震荡中收涨，但成交额降至1.6万亿元，接近四个月来的地量水平。这种量能萎缩， 往往意味着市场在寻找新方向前的蓄势。 具体看，上证指数微涨0.34%，收于3888.60点，深证成指和创业板指分别上涨0.85%和0.70%，科创50指 数以1.25%的涨幅领先，显示科技股仍是资金青睐的对象。月线层面，多数指数收跌，但今日超4000只 个股飘红，板块分化中透出结构性机会。 其他板块如锂矿和大消费，也受益于超跌反弹和事件驱动。锂矿股在盛新锂能等个股带动下反弹，大消 费则因海欣食品"地天板"而活跃。这些现象说明，资金正从高估值板块流向政策支持的硬科技和顺周期 领域。反观银行和医药的下跌，则反映了市场对基本面压力的担忧。 展望12月，A股市场预计延续震荡格局，多空因素博弈加剧。经济基本面企稳改善仍是核心关切，内 ...