格隆汇8月12日｜国信证券就中芯国际(0981.HK)发布研报称，公司二季度收入超指引上限，产能利用率 达92.5%，看好国内晶圆代工龙头中长期发展前景，预计公司2025-2027年归母净利润为5.76/7.92/9.26亿 美元，维持优于大市评级。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor sector is experiencing significant growth, driven by AI and optimistic forecasts for 2025, despite ongoing supply chain risks [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - Semiconductor stocks surged today, with Shanghai Hejing and Cambrian Technology hitting the daily limit, and Shengke Communication rising over 14% [1] - The storage sector is expected to see a continuous increase in contract prices in Q3 2025, with leading companies projected to report clear quarter-on-quarter growth [1] Group 2: Company Performance and Opportunities - Companies in the power analog sector are showing signs of market recovery, with impressive growth rates reported in Q2 [1] - Leading wafer foundries are initiating price increases, with optimistic performance outlooks for Q2 and Q3, and expected high utilization rates in Q3 [1] - AISoC chip companies are benefiting from the increasing penetration of AI hardware, with high growth reflected in Q1 and Q2 results, and a positive outlook due to upcoming AI glasses releases [1] - ASIC companies are gradually showing revenue growth, supported by Deepseek's entry into the market [1] - The CIS sector is experiencing increased demand driven by smart vehicle needs and new flagship smartphone releases [1] Group 3: Industry Trends - The equipment and materials sector is seeing strong performance from leading manufacturers in Q1 2025 and parts of Q2, with accelerated resource integration driven by a new wave of mergers and acquisitions [1] - The focus on localizing the semiconductor supply chain is prompting investors to consider opportunities in mature processes and specialty technologies at SMIC, as well as the development of domestic semiconductor equipment and materials companies [2]

Core Insights - Semiconductor foundries, including SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor, reported mixed financial results for Q2 2023, reflecting ongoing challenges in the industry due to weak demand for consumer electronics [1][2][3] Financial Performance - SMIC reported Q2 2023 revenue of $1.56 billion, a year-on-year decline of 18%, with a net profit of $403 million, down 21.7% [1] - Hua Hong Semiconductor achieved Q2 2023 revenue of $631.4 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, but net profit fell by 6.4% to $78.5 million [1][3] - SMIC's gross margin was 20.3%, down 19.1 percentage points year-on-year, while Hua Hong's gross margin was 27.7%, down 5.9 percentage points [1][3] Capacity and Utilization - SMIC's revenue from 8-inch and 12-inch wafers accounted for 25.3% and 74.7% of total revenue, respectively, with 8-inch wafer revenue declining by 2.8 percentage points [2] - SMIC's capacity utilization rate was 78.3%, significantly lower than 97.1% in the same period last year but higher than 68.1% in Q1 2023 [2] Market Trends - The semiconductor industry is facing challenges due to weak demand for consumer electronics, with global PC shipments down 15% year-on-year and smartphone sales down 8% [4] - However, there are signs of potential recovery in the second half of the year, driven by new smartphone releases and a gradual recovery in the PC market [4] Future Outlook - Hua Hong Semiconductor expects Q3 2023 revenue between $560 million and $600 million, with a gross margin of 16% to 18%, indicating a decline from Q2 [3] - SMIC anticipates a revenue increase of 3% to 5% in Q3 2023, with a gross margin forecast of 18% to 20% [3] - Both companies are investing in new capacity and technology development to prepare for future growth cycles, with SMIC's capital expenditure reaching $1.732 billion in Q2, up 37.6% [5]

Core Viewpoint - SMIC's Q2 financial report slightly exceeded expectations, showing a slowdown in revenue and gross profit decline compared to previous quarters, but still better than the company's guidance and market expectations [1][8]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, SMIC achieved revenue of $2.21 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 1.7% [3]. - The revenue breakdown shows that 12-inch wafer products contributed $1.59 billion (76.1% of total revenue), while 8-inch wafer products generated $499 million (23.9% of total revenue), with the latter showing a quarter-on-quarter growth of 6.6% [3]. - The Chinese market accounted for over 80% of revenue, with Q2 revenue from China at $1.86 billion, a 1.9% decline quarter-on-quarter [3]. Gross Profit and Margins - SMIC reported a gross profit of $450 million in Q2, a year-on-year increase of 69.7%, but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 11.1%, resulting in a gross margin of 20.4% [5][6]. - The decline in gross margin was attributed to production volatility and changes in product mix, leading to a decrease in average selling price (ASP) by 6.4% [5][6]. Operating Expenses - Operating expenses increased by 24.0% quarter-on-quarter and 9.3% year-on-year, primarily due to rising R&D and management costs [7]. - R&D expenses rose by 22.1% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting ongoing challenges in advanced process yields [7]. Market Reaction and Future Outlook - Despite the slightly better-than-expected results, SMIC's stock fell 8.2% in Hong Kong and 4.3% in A-shares on the day following the report, indicating market skepticism [2][9]. - For Q3, SMIC expects revenue growth of 5%-7% and a gross margin of 18%-20%, but expressed concerns about visibility for Q4 due to potential adjustments in smartphone market demand [9][10]. Strategic Considerations - The shift towards mature processes raises concerns about future earnings volatility, especially if demand driven by policy incentives diminishes [11]. - The company's ability to advance in technology and maintain competitive positioning is critical, given the capital-intensive nature of the semiconductor industry [13][14]. Valuation Insights - SMIC's current price-to-book (PB) ratio is 2.4x, compared to an average of 1.9x for peer companies, suggesting a relatively high valuation [15]. - The A-share PB is currently at 4.6x, reflecting market expectations, but there is potential for further valuation increases if domestic substitution trends strengthen or if advancements in technology occur [15].

交银国际发布研报称，看好中芯国际(00981)国产晶圆代工产的龙头地位，认为集团或持续受益于关键 半导体产品的国产代替趋势。上调H股目标价4%，由45港元升至47港元，对应2026年2.1倍的市净率， 维持"中性"评级。 该行测算出集团今年上半年新增12英寸月产能1.9万片，并于第三季继续新增1.1万片月产能。据该行推 测，第三季平均售价(ASP)虽高于第二季，但仍略低于首季，符合该行预期。 该行认为集团次季业绩优于指引，且总体需求因关税影响提前拉货的情况对集团影响不大，预计需求将 平稳过渡到下半年，预测集团第三季收入环比增6.3%至23.5亿美元，毛利率19.3%。同时 预测2025-2026 年收入92.9/110亿美元，毛利率20.5%/21%。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，交银国际发布研报称，看好中芯国际(00981)国产晶圆代工产的龙头地位，认为集团 或持续受益于关键半导体产品的国产代替趋势。上调H股目标价4%，由45港元升至47港元，对应2026 年2.1倍的市净率，维持"中性"评级。 该行认为集团次季业绩优于指引，且总体需求因关税影响提前拉货的情况对集团影响不大，预计需求将 平稳过渡到下半年，预测集团第三季收入环比增6.3%至23.5亿美元，毛利率19.3%。同时 预测2025-2026 年收入92.9/110亿美元，毛利率20.5%/21%。 该行测算出集团今年上半年新增12英寸月产能1.9万片，并于第三季继续新增1.1万片月产能。据该行推 测，第三季平均售价(ASP)虽高于第二季，但仍略低于首季，符合该行预期。 ...

晶圆代工龙头台积电(TSM.US)涨1.3%。消息上，7月台积电销售额3231.7亿元新台币(约合108.06亿美元)，同比增长 25.8%，环比增长22.5%；这符合分析师对该公司第三季度收入同比增长25%的预期。尽管受到新台币走强的影响， 公司今年仍保持着强劲的增长速度，并在努力缩小供应与需求之间的差距。1—7月公司累计销售额2.096万亿新台币 (约合700.84亿美元)，同比增长37.6%。 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market has seen a significant performance in technology stocks since 2025, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Board (STAR Market) becoming the core driver of this trend due to policy support and technological breakthroughs [1][2] - As of August 11, the STAR Market Composite Index has risen by 22% year-to-date, outperforming major indices like the CSI 300 and the Shanghai Composite Index [1] - The STAR Market has successfully crossed a total market capitalization of 7 trillion yuan, with over 589 listed companies, predominantly in emerging industries such as new-generation information technology and biomedicine [2] Group 2 - The STAR Market's focus on "hard technology" and high-growth potential has provided crucial support for the recent rise in technology stocks [2] - The AI sector has experienced significant capital expenditure growth, with the STAR AI and STAR Chip indices seeing cumulative gains of over 109% and 95% respectively since September 24 [2][5] - Companies like Cambricon and Haiguang Information have reported strong earnings, with Cambricon achieving profitability for two consecutive quarters and Haiguang's net profit exceeding 1 billion yuan for the first half of 2025 [3] Group 3 - The performance of innovative pharmaceutical companies on the STAR Market has also been a highlight, with significant milestones achieved in drug development and commercialization [4] - Notable achievements include a record $12.5 billion upfront payment for a PD-1/VEGF dual antibody candidate and multiple new drug approvals in May [4][5] - The STAR Innovative Drug Index has risen over 75% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Biomedicine Index [5] Group 4 - The STAR Market has implemented a series of reforms to enhance the adaptability of quality technology companies, including the establishment of a growth tier for unprofitable tech firms [7] - This initiative has improved liquidity for companies in the growth tier, with a 54% increase in average daily turnover compared to the previous year [7] Group 5 - The number and scale of STAR Market index products have seen significant growth, with over 32 indices established, attracting around 2 million investors [8][9] - The introduction of various indices, such as the STAR Private Enterprise Index, reflects the market's focus on the role of private and specialized enterprises in driving growth [9] - By mid-2025, the total allocation to STAR Market ETFs by long-term investors exceeded 40 billion yuan, indicating a strong interest in tracking the STAR 50 Index [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huahong Semiconductor, with target prices set at HKD 52.7 for the Hong Kong stock and RMB 77.9 for the A-share, indicating potential upside of 18% and 17% respectively [2][6]. Core Insights - Huahong Semiconductor has demonstrated a consistent revenue growth of approximately 18% year-on-year over the past three quarters, supported by a recovery in downstream semiconductor demand and stable capacity release from its second 12-inch production line in Wuxi [2][3]. - The gross margin for the second quarter was reported at 10.9%, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.4 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.7 percentage points, exceeding previous guidance and market expectations [3][10]. - The company has provided guidance for third-quarter revenue at a median of USD 630 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 20% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 11%, with a gross margin forecast of 11% [3][11]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q2 2025, Huahong Semiconductor reported revenue of USD 566 million, a year-on-year increase of 18% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5% [10]. - The net profit for Q2 2025 was USD 7.95 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 112% [10]. - The EBITDA forecast for 2025 is adjusted to USD 740 million, with a gross margin projected at 10.9% [12]. Valuation Metrics - The current EV/EBITDA and price-to-book ratios for Huahong Semiconductor are 13.0x and 1.5x respectively, indicating attractive valuation levels [2][18]. - The report adjusts the 2025 and 2026 net profit and EBITDA forecasts, with the 2025 target EV/EBITDA set at 16.5x, leading to the target price of HKD 52.7 [3][12].

Group 1 - The average capacity utilization rate of major global foundries is approximately 82% in Q2 2025, reflecting an increase of about 8 percentage points year-on-year, driven by tariff risk factors and strong downstream demand [1] - The demand for 8-inch wafers has significantly rebounded, with major foundries expected to see steady increases in shipment volumes and capacity utilization rates in the first half of 2025, and further acceleration in the second half due to recovery in industrial control and automotive applications [1] - According to TrendForce, wafer foundry prices are expected to stabilize starting from Q3 2025, with a slight potential price increase for certain 8-inch applications in 2026 [1] Group 2 - The capacity utilization rate for 28/40nm processes in mainland China is expected to remain high in 2025, with projections indicating it will exceed 90% due to international clients shifting orders to establish local supply chains [3] - The 55nm process is showing signs of stable recovery driven by demand in automotive and medium-sized displays, while the 90nm demand remains optimistic; however, price increases are expected to be challenging due to the entry of more second-tier foundries in mainland China [4] - The 8-inch process is experiencing a significant recovery in capacity utilization rates, with major manufacturers like World Advanced and Huahong expected to see a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3-5 percentage points from Q3 to Q4 2025 [5]