行业报告 | 行业专题研究 石油石化 证券研究报告 2025 年 06 月 20 日 | 投资评级 | | | --- | --- | | 行业评级 | 强于大市(维持评级) | | 上次评级 | 强于大市 | 炼化&煤化工——关注整治"内卷" 5 月 20 日，在国家发展改革委召开的新闻发布会上，提到整治"内卷式" 竞争。优化产业布局，遏制落后产能无序扩张。加快淘汰炼油、钢铁等行业 低效落后产能；科学论证煤化工、氧化铝等行业新增产能项目，防止盲目新 建。 2025 石化产业发展大会，今年是"十五五"规划谋篇布局之年，针对如何 突破增长困境，破除"内卷式"竞争进行了讨论。" 煤炭——关注环保安监察，以及进口减量 6 月份第三轮第四批中央生态环境保护督察全面启动。安监形势严峻，国家 矿山安全检查总局山西省强烈要求辖区内煤矿深入排查。 进口方面，中煤协倡议严控低卡劣质煤进口和使用，维护煤炭进口秩序。进 口预计在 5-6 月份进一步减量。 总结： 石化化工着眼于新产能控制和落后产能淘汰；煤炭则可能着眼于调节开工率 手段，产能政策上是否会不明朗。总体来讲，有望给价格价差形成托底效应。 风险提示：1）政策监管不及预期、 ...

北方长龙是本周换手率最高的个股，一周换手率为335.03%，一周股价上涨38.70%，该股本周因日换手 率达30%、连续3个交易日内日收盘价格涨幅偏离值累计达30%等4次登陆龙虎榜，买卖居前营业部中， 机构专用席位净卖出563.46万元，营业部累计净卖出3703.17万元。资金流向上，该股本周主力资金净流 入0.12亿元。 其次是科力股份，一周换手率为333.26%，一周股价上涨25.26%，该股本周因日换手率达20%、日价格 振幅达30%等4次登陆龙虎榜，买卖居前营业部中，营业部累计净卖出1.80亿元。资金流向上，该股本 周主力资金净卖出1.80亿元。 沪指本周下跌0.51%，其中，95股成交活跃，周换手率超过100%。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，本周共有95只个股换手率超过100%；换手率在50%~100%的有283只；换手 率在10%~50%的有2114只。分行业看，本周换手率100%以上个股中，机械设备行业个股最多，有16只 个股上榜；计算机、基础化工等紧随其后，分别有12只、10只个股上榜。 通源石油本周换手率272.92%，位居榜单第三，一周股价上涨42.09%，该股本周因日换手率达30%、连 续 ...

本期导读： 2025年国资并购潮起：解码地方资本布局上市公司的战略逻辑与市场效应。 作者丨李蕾 姚亚楠 来源｜每日经济新闻 本期推荐阅读5分钟 2025年以来，资本市场频现国资收购上市公司案例，地方国资正以空前活跃的姿态参与资本市场 资源配置。 广慧并购研究院院长、广慧投资董事长俞铁成对《每日经济新闻》记者感叹道，今年是自己从业以 来最忙的年份之一，"我们接到了很多国资机构的邀请，几乎一两天都会有一个机构负责人，有的 是董事长亲自联系我，明确提出想收购上市公司的诉求"。 同样忙碌的还有国智产投创始合伙人孙万营，今年以来， 国资机构+产业资本联手收购上市公司的 案例愈发增多， 他和团队也在马不停蹄地沟通调研。"双方都非常积极，市场热情也很高。" 就在刚刚过去的5月底，上市公司罗平锌电发布公告称，该公司或迎来云南曲靖国资的入主；几乎 就在同期，十堰国资委拟以11.42亿元入主上市公司科德教育；另外，近期汇纳科技控股权被上海 宝山国资+产业方联手拿下、无锡国资豪掷6.8亿元买下宁波博汇股份等，都在资本市场引发关注与 热议。 地方国资"抢滩"上市公司， 这一现象既承载着产业升级的战略诉求，也暗含着复杂的市场博弈。 从 ...

石油石化行业今日下跌1.71%，全天主力资金净流出11.78亿元，该行业所属的个股共48只，今日上涨的 有7只，涨停的有1只；下跌的有39只，跌停的有1只。以资金流向数据进行统计，该行业资金净流入的 个股有11只，净流入资金居首的是上海石化，今日净流入资金771.35万元，紧随其后的是海油发展、恒 力石化，净流入资金分别为621.48万元、481.99万元。石油石化行业资金净流出个股中，资金净流出超 5000万元的有8只，净流出资金居前的有准油股份、通源石油、中国石油，净流出资金分别为2.74亿 元、2.07亿元、9727.06万元。（数据宝） 沪指6月20日下跌0.07%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有9个，涨幅居前的行业为交通运输、食品饮 料，涨幅分别为0.88%、0.73%。跌幅居前的行业为传媒、计算机，跌幅分别为1.91%、1.79%。石油石 化行业位居今日跌幅榜第三。 资金面上看，两市主力资金全天净流出218.12亿元，今日有10个行业主力资金净流入，银行行业主力资 金净流入规模居首，该行业今日上涨0.69%，全天净流入资金19.40亿元，其次是食品饮料行业，日涨幅 为0.73%，净流入资金为13.5 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% over the next 6 months [3][38]. Core Insights - Domestic LNG ex-factory prices continue to decline, with a month-on-month decrease of 3.19% as of June 13, reaching 4406.00 CNY/ton. In contrast, US and Canadian natural gas futures prices have also decreased, while UK prices have increased by 5.50% [1][2][7]. - China's natural gas production in May fell by 2.99% month-on-month, totaling 613,420 tons. Meanwhile, US and European natural gas inventories have risen, with US inventories increasing by 9.73% and European inventories by 22.55% [1][15][18]. - European natural gas imports in May decreased by 2.20% month-on-month but increased by 8.66% year-on-year. Notably, imports from Russia rose month-on-month but fell significantly by 50.65% year-on-year [2][24][28]. Summary by Sections Natural Gas Prices - Domestic LNG ex-factory prices have decreased by 145.00 CNY/ton, a drop of 3.19% month-on-month and 0.50% year-on-year. The US NYMEX natural gas futures price fell by 0.44% month-on-month but increased by 23.67% year-on-year [7][10]. - Canadian natural gas futures prices saw a significant decline of 33.56% month-on-month, while UK prices increased by 5.50% [10][11]. Supply and Demand - China's natural gas production in May was 613,420 tons, down 2.99% from the previous month. The apparent consumption of natural gas in April decreased by 0.86% month-on-month but increased by 2.26% year-on-year [15][16]. Inventory - As of June 13, US LNG/LPG inventories rose to 169,056 thousand barrels, marking a 9.73% increase month-on-month. European natural gas inventories also increased by 22.55% month-on-month, totaling 601.10 billion kWh [18][22]. Imports and Exports - In May, Europe’s total natural gas imports decreased by 2.20% month-on-month to 172,918.64 million cubic meters, while imports from Russia increased by 10.11% month-on-month but decreased by 50.65% year-on-year [24][27][28].

【博时市场点评6月20日】两市继续调整，成交缩至万亿 每日观点 今日沪深两市继续震荡调整，成交缩量至1.09万亿。今日央行公布6月LPR报价，两个期限利率均保持 不变，符合市场预期。5月降息效果当前正向贷款利率传导，短期内将进入政策观察期，LPR报价短期 或将继续保持稳定。5月经济数据已发布，需求不足仍是核心问题，下半年在外部仍有很大不确定性， 大力提振内需、稳定资产价格预期，均需要适度宽松的货币环境。通过降低资金成本，激发融资需求， 是下半年拉动投资和消费、对冲外部冲击的一个重要发力点。国内权益市场短期或将维持震荡，主题轮 动较快，配置上可关注科技+红利的哑铃配置。 消息面 市场复盘 6月20日，A股三大指数下跌。截至收盘，上证指数报3359.90点，下跌0.07%；深证成指报10005.03点， 下跌0.47%；创业板指报2009.89点，下跌0.83%；科创100报1016.84点，下跌0.52%。申万一级行业中， 交通运输、食品饮料、银行涨幅靠前，分别上涨0.88%、0.73%、0.69%；传媒、计算机、石油石化跌幅 靠前，分别下跌1.91%、1.79%、1.71%。1500只个股上涨，3488只个股 ...

证券时报·数据宝统计，截至上午收盘，今日沪指涨0.08%，A股成交量550.44亿股，成交金额6863.36亿 元，比上一个交易日减少14.81%。个股方面，1943只个股上涨，其中涨停39只，3209只个股下跌，其 中跌停10只。从申万行业来看，食品饮料、交通运输、非银金融等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为1.20%、 0.85%、0.81%；传媒、石油石化、计算机等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为1.69%、1.35%、1.16%。（数据宝） 今日各行业表现（截至上午收盘） | 国防军工 | | | | 新光光电 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 计算机 | -1.16 | 668.11 | -15.63 | 致远互联 | -8.74 | | 石油石化 | -1.35 | 131.36 | 16.19 | 华锦股份 | -8.23 | | 传媒 | -1.69 | 268.71 | -1.71 | 元隆雅图 | -9.79 | 注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 （文章来源：证券时报网） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上 ...

Group 1 - The industrial added value of Fushun City increased by 11.9% from January to May, with significant growth in industrial technological transformation investment by 56.5% and high-tech manufacturing investment by 85.4% [1] - A total of 132 new projects were initiated, representing a year-on-year increase of 25 projects or 23.3% [1][2] - Fushun City is focusing on project construction to support economic growth, with 510 key projects planned for the year, including 17 provincial-level key projects [2][3] Group 2 - The city has successfully transformed from a coal resource-depleted area to a greener and smarter urban environment, with significant improvements in land previously used for mining [2] - The city is implementing a "green channel" for project approvals and providing greater support for financing, energy use, and land allocation to facilitate project construction [3] - Fushun has been recognized as a national pilot city for the digital transformation of small and medium-sized enterprises, establishing 30 digital workshops and smart factories [4] Group 3 - Fixed asset investment in Fushun has shown continuous double-digit growth for five consecutive months, with a growth rate of 14.1% from January to May, placing it among the top in Liaoning Province [2][4] - The city has successfully secured 7.4 billion yuan in central funding to support 13 key projects, with significant investments in underground pipeline construction [3]

盘面回顾：市场选择避险，和能源涨价有关的板块上涨。周四 A 股受到中东局势紧张的影响出现 调整，市场风险偏好下降。前期热门板块如创新药、银行等调整，和能源涨价相关的石油石化等上涨， 显示避险情绪升温。大盘全天震荡走低，成交量小幅放大。板块表现跌多涨少，上涨板块仅石油石化一 个；领跌板块包括纺织服装、美容护理、轻工、有色金属、医药生物等。 风险提示：全球地缘格局出现超预期局面，关税预期的反复摇摆，关税冲击的后续影响，美联储降 息延后，海外经济衰退超预期，国内经济复苏不及预期，政策执行不及预期等。 后市展望：6 月上中旬关税事件的反复摇摆窗口即将过去，6 月中下旬的政策窗口期即将打开。6 月上中旬市场仍在围绕关税事件进行预期博弈，包括 1）美国国际贸易法院的裁定和特朗普当局的上 诉，以及上诉期间所谓的"对等关税"是否要暂停；2）中美元首通话，新一轮贸易谈判结果落地等。即 将进入6 月中下旬，市场将开始展望增量政策，主要因为国家发改委曾在 5 月下旬表示：加快推出稳就 业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干举措，目前各有关部门正在抓紧落实，大部分政策举措将按计划在 6 月 底前落地。若增量政策及时有效推出落地，则 6 月下旬 ...

Core Viewpoint - The integration of the petrochemical industry with new energy and artificial intelligence is essential for the transformation and upgrading of Henan's petrochemical sector, addressing its current structural issues and high energy dependence [2][3]. Industry Development - Henan Province has established a distinctive salt chemical industry cluster, transitioning from traditional products like soda ash and caustic soda to high-end new materials such as polycarbonate and epoxy resin [2]. - The province has formed 47 differentiated chemical industry clusters, showcasing regional characteristics [2]. Challenges - The petrochemical industry in Henan faces challenges such as a relatively short industrial chain, severe product homogeneity, and high external dependence on coal and oil resources, with coal dependence at approximately 50% and oil and gas resource dependence exceeding 90% [2][3]. Strategic Recommendations - To achieve a high-end green transformation, the industry should focus on four key areas: high-value conversion of carbon-based energy, green production process innovation, high-end transformation of new materials, and intelligent digital transformation [3]. - Suggested strategies include the integration of renewable energy with petrochemicals, low-carbon transformative processes, and the development of high-end new materials from coal-based oxygen-containing compounds [3]. Event Overview - The 2025 Central China (Zhengzhou) Chemical Technology Equipment and New Materials Exhibition aims to promote high-quality development in the chemical industry, featuring 16 sectors including new chemical materials, advanced nylon materials, electronic chemicals, and smart chemical equipment [3]. - The event is organized by the Henan Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association and the Henan Chemical Pharmaceutical Safety Production Association, emphasizing the chemical industry's role as a core engine for economic development in Central China and its importance in achieving carbon neutrality goals [3]. Collaborative Initiatives - The release of the "Mountain River Four Provinces Chemical Industry Chain Collaborative Development White Paper" outlines a strategic path to build a trillion-level chemical industry cluster [4].