Report Title - Weekly Report on Polyolefins: Peak Seasons Are Gradually Starting, Try to Go Long on Dips [1] Report Date - August 24, 2025 [2] Report Core View - The fundamentals of polyolefins have improved recently, with demand for agricultural films entering the peak season and inventory pressure not significant. It is recommended to go long on dips [4][6][8][9] Key Points by Section 1. L2601 Contract Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: This week, the L2601 contract fluctuated widely between 7243 and 7413, with a 2 - week consecutive positive weekly line. It closed at 7380, up 29 points or 0.4% from last week [3] - **Position and Basis**: As of Friday, the position was 390,000 lots (weekly increase of 75,000), and the North China basis was - 140 yuan/ton (weekly decrease of 69) [15][18] - **Supply**: This week's PE production was 620,000 tons (weekly decrease of 43,000 tons), and next week's production is expected to increase by 23,000 tons [27] - **Import**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative PE import was 8.03 million tons (cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.5%) [30] - **Demand**: The downstream capacity utilization rate was 40%, with a continuous 4 - week improvement. The agricultural film operating rate was 14.5% (weekly increase of 0.7pct), with a continuous 5 - week improvement [33][36] - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory was 500,000 tons (weekly increase of 60,000), and the social inventory was 560,000 tons (weekly decrease of 12,000), with continuous 6 - week destocking [41] - **Strategy**: Unilateral: Go long on dips, focusing on the range of [7350 - 7550]; Arbitrage: Hold the long LP01 arbitrage; Hedging: Industrial customers can choose the opportunity to sell - hedge [6] 2. PP2601 Contract Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: This week, the PP2601 contract fluctuated widely between 6970 and 7081, with a 4 - week consecutive negative weekly line. It closed at 7038, down 46 points or 0.6% from last week [7] - **Position and Basis**: As of Friday, the position was 470,000 lots (weekly increase of 100,000), and the East China basis was - 33 yuan/ton (weekly decrease of 32) [53][56] - **Supply**: This week's PP production was 780,000 tons (weekly increase of 3,000 tons), and next week's production is expected to rise to 795,000 tons [61] - **Import**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative PP import was 1.92 million tons (year - on - year decrease of 8%), and the export was 1.83 million tons (year - on - year increase of 29%) [63] - **Demand**: The PP downstream operating rate was 50%, with a continuous 4 - week marginal improvement. From January to June 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption was 19.49 million tons (cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.6%) [69] - **Inventory**: This week's total commercial inventory was 800,000 tons (weekly decrease of 25,000), with continuous 2 - week destocking [72] - **Strategy**: Unilateral: Go long on dips, focusing on the range of [7000 - 7200]; Arbitrage: Wait and see mainly [9] 3. Propylene Market Review - **Market Performance**: This week, the PL2601 contract fluctuated widely between 6360 and 6529 and closed at 6470 [79] - **Price**: As of Friday, the Shandong propylene market price was 6300 yuan/ton (weekly increase of 95) [83] - **Supply**: This week's propylene production was 1.18 million tons (weekly increase of 14,000), and the in - plant inventory increased continuously [86] - **Demand**: The downstream comprehensive operating rate improved marginally [89]

Group 1 - The South Korean government is addressing the crisis in the petrochemical industry by urging major companies to reduce excess production capacity and improve competitiveness [1][2] - Ten major petrochemical companies in South Korea have signed a restructuring agreement to cut naphtha cracking capacity by 2.7 to 3.7 million tons, which is approximately 25% of the country's total capacity of 14.7 million tons [1] - The government has set three main directions for structural adjustment in the petrochemical industry: reducing excess capacity and shifting to higher value-added products, improving financial health of companies, and minimizing impacts on the economy and employment [1] Group 2 - The South Korean government has requested that the ten companies submit detailed plans by the end of the year, emphasizing a "self-rescue first, government support later" principle [2] - The petrochemical industry is facing its most severe survival crisis in recent years due to continuous new capacity additions leading to oversupply and significant declines in profit margins [2] - A report from Boston Consulting Group (BCG) warns that if the downturn in the petrochemical industry continues, half of the companies in the sector may not be able to sustain operations within three years, necessitating a 24% reduction in domestic capacity [2]

| | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[ 2012 ]31号 [TG 国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | ,烯数据 FR | | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询证:Z0017251 2025/08/25 | | | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格证:F3066728 | | | 指标 | or C | 2025/08/21 | 2025/08/22 | 变动值 | 一现货综述 | | | 原油& | WTI | 62. 35 | 63.52 | 1. 17 | | | | 石脑油 | Brent | 65. 79 | 67.67 | 1.88 | | | | | 石脑油 | 574.5 | 584.5 | 110 | | | | | 乙烯 CFR东北亚 | | | | 苯乙烯:江苏市场涨价。成本存支撑,原油、纯苯整 | | 游 | | | 825 | 830 | 5 | 理,苯乙烯市场有装置检修消息和补货成交提振,现 | | | 纯苯 | CFR中国 | 747 ...

自8月15日以来，PX期货主力合约开启了一轮上涨修复行情。聚酯行业"金九银十"需求旺季即将到来， PX期价能否保持强势？ 永安期货中级分析师顾涵阳表示，从基本面看，供应方面，海内外PX装置均处于检修回归阶段，国内 开工率逐步回升，但在全行业"反内卷"的背景下，也有老旧产能整改的声音出现，例如有龙头企业总裁 表示，将淘汰一批低效炼油装置，控制投资节奏和规模。PX作为头部企业产能占比相对较高的品种， 市场更关注其未来的供应情况。 "需求方面，尽管部分PTA装置近期意外检修，但聚酯装置开工负荷持续回升，在库存持续去化的情况 下，预计开工负荷仍有提升空间。总的来说，当下PX供需基本平衡，远月供应则存在不确定性，因此 价格在化工品中表现相对强势。"顾涵阳说。 上周三，有市场消息称因为连续亏损，韩国10家最大的石化企业已同意进行业务重组，其中包括削减高 达25%的石脑油裂解产能。韩国石化行业承诺减少370万吨石脑油裂解产能。 进出口方面，我国PX进口依存度持续下降。截至2024年，我国PX进口依存度已降至19.76%，去年同期 进口量约为938万吨。其中，自韩国进口的PX高达405万吨，约占我国PX总进口量的43%。 " ...

Core Viewpoint - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) announced the completion of the Dasha Petrochemical Refining and Chemical Integration Project in Ningbo, Zhejiang, marking the establishment of the largest world-class petrochemical industrial base in China, which is significant for enhancing the country's capability in high-end chemical materials and efficient conversion of heavy oil [2][3]. Group 1: Project Overview - The Dasha Petrochemical project has a total investment of 21 billion yuan and is the largest newly built petrochemical industrial base in China, featuring a core production facility that utilizes domestically developed technology for the direct cracking of heavy oil into chemical products, achieving a 100% domestic production rate [3]. - The project includes a 3.2 million tons per year catalytic cracking unit, which is the largest single unit for direct conversion of heavy oil to olefins in the country, producing 1.2 million tons of polymer-grade ethylene and propylene annually, essential for everyday products [5][7]. Group 2: Environmental Impact and Efficiency - The new production process reduces energy consumption per unit product by over 30% compared to traditional methods and is expected to decrease carbon dioxide emissions by 200,000 tons annually, significantly improving the efficiency of heavy oil resource utilization [7][10]. - The project aims to optimize China's petrochemical raw material structure and reduce carbon emissions from olefin products, contributing to the low-carbon transition of refining enterprises [7]. Group 3: Technological Innovations - The project team developed a novel "face-up lining construction technology" to address challenges in the installation of large equipment, which shortened the construction period by 90 days, setting a new record for the shortest installation time for such equipment in China [9][10]. - The use of new lining materials and segmented pouring techniques effectively resolved issues related to deformation and cracking during traditional construction methods [10]. Group 4: Industry Implications - The completion of the Dasha Petrochemical project enhances China's capability for independent construction of core chemical processes and equipment, accelerating the petrochemical industry's transition towards refinement and greening [10]. - This project supports the development of Ningbo as a world-class green petrochemical industrial base and contributes to the integrated development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt and the Yangtze River Delta [10].

马来西亚副总理扎希德当日表示，马来西亚气象局正对地震情况进行研究调查。他呼吁民众保持冷静。 据马新社报道，马来西亚科学院院士阿兹兰受访时表示，柔佛州此前被认为非地震活跃地区，此次地震 提醒马来西亚应加强抗震准备。(完) （文章来源：中国新闻网） 中新网吉隆坡8月24日电 (记者陈悦)马来西亚柔佛州24日上午连续发生两起地震，震级分别为里氏4.1级 和里氏2.8级，截至目前未有人员伤亡报告。 马来西亚气象局指出，上午6时13分发生在柔佛州昔加末的里氏4.1级地震震源深度约10公里，毗邻柔佛 州的马六甲州、森美兰州及彭亨州都有震感。另一起地震于上午9时许发生于柔佛州居銮附近。气象局 表示，两次地震震感较弱，民众无需过分忧虑。 柔佛州是马来西亚石化工业枢纽。马来西亚国家石油公司表示，地震未对该地区输气管及其他基础设施 造成影响。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hengli Petrochemical reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with a significant drop in profitability in the second quarter, indicating challenges in the refining and petrochemical industry due to falling oil prices and product prices [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of 103.9 billion yuan in 1H25, a year-on-year decrease of 8% - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.05 billion yuan, down 24% year-on-year, with basic earnings per share of 0.43 yuan, aligning with performance forecasts - In 2Q25, net profit attributable to shareholders was 1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 47% [1] - The company received government subsidies of 800 million yuan in 1H25, an increase of 230 million yuan year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit was 2.3 billion yuan, down 35% year-on-year [1] - Inventory impairment losses amounted to 790 million yuan, primarily due to falling oil and refining product prices [1] - Operating cash flow increased by 55% year-on-year to 19.5 billion yuan [1] Industry Trends - The refining sector experienced a decline in profitability in 2Q25, attributed to a 9 USD/barrel decrease in crude oil prices, impacting raw material inventory for refining companies [2] - Aromatics profitability decreased, with the PX price spread down 40% year-on-year to 192 USD/ton, and pure benzene price spread down 49% quarter-on-quarter to 201 USD/ton, driven by weak oil prices and increased production from refineries [2] - PTA margins remained low, with gross profit of 1.1 billion yuan in 1H25, maintaining a unit gross profit of 134 yuan/ton [2] - The company’s new materials project in Nantong has begun trial production, with full production expected by August, leading to a reduction in capital expenditure to 3.8 billion yuan in 1H25, down 30% year-on-year [2] Cost Management - Coal prices decreased by 20% year-on-year to 567 yuan/ton in 1H25, with the company consuming approximately 18 million tons of coal annually; a 100-150 yuan/ton drop in coal prices could save costs by 1.8-2.7 billion yuan [2] Market Outlook - The trend of reducing inefficient capacity is expected to enhance the value of existing assets, with China planning to eliminate smaller, outdated refining facilities and South Korea restructuring its petrochemical industry with a 25% reduction in production [3] - The slowdown in new refining capacity under the anti-involution trend may lead to a recovery in the share of quality capacity and an improvement in olefin profitability [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to the weakened profitability in aromatics, the company has lowered its 2025 net profit forecast by 8% to 6.76 billion yuan, while maintaining the 2026 profit forecast [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 18x for 2025 and 16x for 2026, with an 11% increase in the target price to 17.8 yuan, reflecting a potential upside of 4.1% from the current stock price [4]

Core Insights - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) announced the successful commissioning of the Dasha Petrochemical Integration Project in Ningbo, Zhejiang, marking the completion of the largest world-class petrochemical industrial base in China, enhancing the country's capability for efficient heavy oil conversion and self-sufficiency in high-end chemical materials [1][2] Investment and Production Capacity - The total investment for the project is 21 billion yuan, making it the largest newly constructed petrochemical industrial base in China. The core production unit utilizes domestically developed technology for direct cracking of heavy oil into chemical products, achieving a 100% domestic production rate [2][3] - The project features a catalytic cracking unit with an annual capacity of 3.2 million tons, producing 1.2 million tons of polymer-grade ethylene and propylene, which are essential raw materials for everyday products such as mineral water bottles and food packaging [2][3] Environmental Impact and Efficiency - The new production process reduces energy consumption per unit product by over 30% compared to traditional methods, leading to a reduction of 200,000 tons of carbon dioxide emissions annually, significantly improving the efficiency of heavy oil resource utilization [2][3] - The project contributes to the low-carbon transition of refining enterprises and has profound implications for optimizing China's petrochemical raw material structure and reducing carbon emissions from single-unit olefin products [2][3] Technological Innovation - The construction faced challenges due to the unique design of the core equipment, which required innovative "upside-down lining construction technology" to install a giant steel bowl weighing 1,145 tons at a height of 25 meters, shortening the construction period by 90 days [4] - The project sets a new benchmark for the construction of large-scale petrochemical equipment in China, enhancing the country's capabilities in core chemical processes and equipment manufacturing [4]

中证报中证网讯(王珞)8月22日晚间，国内石油化工民营龙头企业之一——荣盛石化（002493）发布 2025年半年度报告。报告期内，公司资产总额达3840.11亿元；实现营业总收入1486.29亿元，同比下降 7.83%；实现扣非净利润7.55亿元，同比增长12.28%。公司重点推进以国际化拓展、绿色化升级、数智 化赋能为核心的"三化"转型战略，在高质量发展的道路上迈出了坚实而有力的步伐。 战略转型持续推进 报告期内，荣盛石化一方面精耕细作，全力稳固现有核心产业的"基本盘"，保障业绩稳健增长；另一方 面前瞻布局，积极开拓高端化工新材料等具有高附加值和发展潜力的"新赛道"。 国际合作方面，荣盛石化与全球能源巨头沙特阿美签署了具有战略意义的《谅解备忘录》及《合作框架 协议》，双方的战略合作逐步推进，为双方实现长期战略目标、提升全球竞争力奠定坚实基础。与此同 时，荣盛石化紧抓国内产业升级机遇，不断拓展业务领域，增强资源整合与市场影响力，为企业发展注 入新动力。 绿色升级方面，公司坚持创新驱动发展战略，在关键核心技术攻关上取得一系列突破性成果。例如，中 金石化自主研发的新型高性能歧化催化剂成功实现工业化应用，不仅大幅 ...

Core Insights - The Daxie Petrochemical Refining and Chemical Integration Project in Ningbo has been fully completed, marking the addition of a new project to China's largest petrochemical industrial base, with total olefin production capacity exceeding 10 million tons [1] - The project involves 18 large-scale refining and chemical units, primarily producing high-end chemical products such as polypropylene, which are widely used in the new energy vehicle and electronics industries, with a total investment of 21 billion yuan [1] - The project has overcome several key technical challenges in the refining sector, establishing the largest heavy oil-to-olefins facility in the country, thus providing core technological support for the self-sufficiency of high-end chemical material supply chains in China [1][2] Investment and Production Capacity - The project is designed to process 12 million tons of crude oil annually, producing over 1 million tons of olefins and aromatics, utilizing domestically sourced medium and light crude oil supplemented by imported crude [1] - The core unit, a 3.2 million tons/year catalytic cracking facility, is the largest heavy oil-to-polymer-grade olefins equipment in the country, producing high-purity ethylene and propylene for various applications including mineral water bottles and high-end cables [2] - The olefin production capacity of Daxie Petrochemical is expected to reach 1.8 million tons per year, positioning it as the largest heavy oil-to-olefins base in China [2] Technological Advancements - The project employs innovative construction techniques that reduced the construction period by 90 days, setting a new record for the shortest installation time for large equipment in the country [1] - Daxie Petrochemical focuses on developing high-end strategic new materials, including recyclable cable materials and ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene, creating a complete innovation ecosystem from R&D to industrial application [2]