Group 1: Lithium Market Insights - The supply of lithium is experiencing short-term disruptions and long-term growth limitations, leading to a mid-term supply gap expected to persist until 2026-2027 [1][2] - Demand for lithium is being driven by the growth of energy storage and the commercialization potential of solid-state batteries, which may increase lithium consumption per unit [2] - From the second half of 2025, supply disruptions in Jiangxi, China, combined with strong downstream demand, are expected to lead to a rebound in lithium prices, maintaining a tight market through 2026-2027 [2] Group 2: Cobalt Market Dynamics - The supply of cobalt is significantly influenced by the export quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo, resulting in a clear supply gap and strong price support [3] - Demand for cobalt products is currently weak due to high prices, and the potential recovery in demand hinges on the adoption of solid-state batteries [3] - The Congolese government's strong price control and willingness to maintain prices, along with slower-than-expected export rhythms, suggest that cobalt prices are likely to remain strong in the mid-term [3] Group 3: Market Feedback Mechanisms - In an upward cycle, it is crucial to consider the self-reinforcing and cross-reinforcing attributes between stock prices and commodity prices, alongside fundamental factors [4] - The sequence of "stocks → futures → spot" illustrates how stock prices often react first to anticipated turning points, followed by futures and then spot prices, creating a positive feedback loop [4] - Investment recommendations include lithium-related companies such as Yongxing Materials, Ganfeng Lithium, and Tianqi Lithium, as well as cobalt-related companies like Huayou Cobalt and Luoyang Molybdenum [4]

Market Overview - The lithium mining sector experienced a collective adjustment on January 30, with the sector dropping over 6%, and companies like Jinyuan Co., Weiling Co., Western Mining, and Tibet Mining seeing declines exceeding 9% [1] - On the same day, lithium carbonate futures continued to decline, with the main contract LC2605 falling by 10.99% to close at 148,200 yuan/ton [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The lithium carbonate market has maintained a tight balance between supply and demand due to factors such as production halts, continued subsidies for electric vehicles, and strong energy storage orders [3] - As of January 30, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 21,569 tons, a decrease of 638 tons from the previous week, while demand remained robust, particularly in energy storage batteries [3] - The market is experiencing a de-stocking trend, with a weekly reduction of 1,414 tons in lithium carbonate inventory [3] Regulatory Environment - The Guangxi Futures Exchange has implemented strict market supervision measures in response to recent price volatility, emphasizing the importance of risk management and compliance among trading firms [5] - The exchange has taken action against clients who exceeded trading limits in lithium carbonate futures, signaling a strong stance against market manipulation [5] - Analysts believe that the recent regulatory measures aim to cool speculative trading without significantly impacting legitimate hedging needs of real enterprises [6] Market Sentiment - Current market sentiment has noticeably cooled, with lithium carbonate prices showing weakness and expected to fluctuate at high levels until new driving factors emerge [3] - The recent price decline is viewed as a correction of previously excessive optimism, with regulatory bodies preferring to respect market self-regulation mechanisms [7][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Shock" rating for lithium carbonate [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The high - level adjustment of the market and the implementation of the energy storage capacity price mechanism. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be more likely to rise than fall due to demand support and mining end disturbances. It is advisable to take a bullish approach and look for opportunities to go long at low levels after the trading volume and volatility stabilize [1][2] - The introduction of the national - level policy on the grid - side independent new - type energy storage capacity price mechanism is favorable for the energy storage yield and installed capacity, and may increase the tolerance of energy storage for lithium carbonate prices. However, the rise in lithium carbonate prices may put pressure on the power end [2][14] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1.盘面高位调整，储能容量电价机制落地 - This week (1/23 - 1/30), lithium salt prices dropped significantly. The closing price of LC2605 decreased by 18.4% to 148,200 yuan/ton. The spot average prices of SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 6.1% and 6.3% to 160,500 and 157,000 yuan/ton respectively. The price of lithium hydroxide also fluctuated accordingly [11] - On the supply side, Sigma Lithium's mining restart is on schedule, expected to be completed in January 2026. From late January to February, some lithium salt plants have annual maintenance plans. SMM predicts that the lithium carbonate output in February will be 81,930 tons, a 16% month - on - month decrease [1][12] - On the demand side, the downstream cell production schedule in February decreased month - on - month. In February, the lithium battery production schedule was 172GWh, a 12% month - on - month decrease. Among them, lithium iron phosphate was 139GWh, a 10% month - on - month decrease; ternary was 26.5GWh, a 15% month - on - month decrease; power was 105GWh, a 12% month - on - month decrease; energy storage was 57GWh, a 9% month - on - month decrease [1][12] - This week, the total inventory of the SMM lithium carbonate sample decreased by 1,414 tons month - on - month. It is expected that lithium carbonate will continue to reduce inventory in February. Currently, the upstream inventory is only 5 days, the mid - stream inventory has decreased to 12.7 days, and the downstream inventory has increased to 10.8 days [1][12] - After the sharp drop in the market on Friday, there were many limit - down orders. The pre - holiday stockpiling demand was largely released, and it is expected that the pre - holiday stockpiling demand will moderately weaken [1][12] - On January 30, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Bureau issued a notice to establish a grid - side independent new - type energy storage capacity price mechanism, which will be promoted nationwide. It is estimated that a capacity price of 165 yuan/kilowatt can increase the energy storage IRR by 4 - 5pct, and energy storage demand may be more optimistic [2][13][14] 3.2.周内行业要闻回顾 - The lithium carbonate futures and options of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange will introduce overseas traders, which helps the industry chain enterprises manage risks and promotes the pricing model to shift to the "Chinese price" [16] - India plans to introduce incentives to encourage enterprises to build lithium - nickel processing plants [17] - The rise in lithium prices has brought potential opportunities for Develop's Pioneer Dome project, and the company is evaluating various development plans [17] 3.3.产业链重点高频数据监测 3.3.1.资源端：锂精矿价格随盘面波动 - Lithium concentrate prices fluctuate with the market [19] 3.3.2.锂盐：盘面高位回落，基差波动较大 - The lithium salt market has fallen from a high level, and the basis has fluctuated greatly [22] 3.3.3.下游中间品：成本驱动下游价格上涨 - The prices of downstream intermediate products are rising driven by costs [47] 3.3.4.终端：关注产业链负反馈情况 - Attention should be paid to the negative feedback of the industrial chain at the terminal [58]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [1] Core Insights - The supply and demand expectations for lithium and cobalt are reversing, indicating the start of a new price cycle [2][3] - Lithium demand is expected to recover, leading to a replenishment cycle, while supply disruptions will create a medium-term gap [2] - Cobalt supply is dominated by export quotas from sovereign nations, leading to a raw material shortage that supports prices [3] Summary by Sections Lithium - Supply disruptions from African lithium projects and stable production from South American salt lakes are expected, while China's regulatory management will lead to a temporary supply contraction of lithium mica [2] - Demand for lithium is driven by the growth of energy storage as a second growth driver after electric vehicles, with solid-state batteries opening up potential for increased lithium consumption [2] - From the second half of 2025, supply disruptions in Jiangxi and strong downstream demand will lead to a price rebound for lithium, maintaining a tight supply situation through 2026-2027 [2] Cobalt - The supply side is significantly influenced by the export quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo, resulting in a definitive raw material shortage [3] - Demand for cobalt products is currently weak due to high prices, and the recovery of demand hinges on the adoption of solid-state batteries [3] - The Congolese government has a strong ability and willingness to support prices, with expectations for cobalt prices to remain strong in the medium term [3] Investment Strategy - In an upward cycle, it is essential to consider the self-reinforcing attributes of stock prices and commodity prices, alongside fundamental factors [4] - The interplay between stock prices, futures, and spot prices creates a positive feedback loop, where stock prices often react first to anticipated changes [4] Investment Recommendations - Recommended lithium-related stocks include Yongxing Materials, Ganfeng Lithium, and Tianqi Lithium, among others [5] - Recommended cobalt-related stocks include Huayou Cobalt and others [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the successful transformation of several small-scale active equity funds into larger funds within a single quarter, driven by strategic investments in high-demand sectors such as energy storage and resource commodities during the structural market conditions of Q4 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Performance and Growth - Several active equity funds, including GF Carbon Neutral Theme, China Europe Cycle Selection, and Taixin Development Theme, managed to escape the "small fund" predicament by capitalizing on market opportunities in Q4 2025 [2][4]. - As of the end of Q3 2025, these funds were all categorized as "small funds" with sizes below 100 million yuan, with Taixin Development Theme maintaining a size below 10 million yuan since its inception in 2015 [2]. - Taixin Development Theme significantly increased its allocation to energy metals and industrial metals, achieving a return of over 35% in Q4 2025, which led to a surge in its fund size from approximately 5.16 million yuan to 1.547 billion yuan [3]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The funds successfully adjusted their portfolios in Q4 2025, with GF Carbon Neutral Theme introducing nine new stocks, including major gainers like Tianhua New Energy and Dazhong Mining, while China Europe Cycle Selection updated seven stocks, focusing on resource sectors [3][4]. - The article emphasizes that successful fund managers utilized solid research capabilities to implement differentiated strategies, identifying market gaps and niche areas rather than merely following market trends [1][6]. Group 3: Market Trends and Investor Sentiment - The Q4 2025 market saw significant growth in high-demand sectors such as AI, lithium batteries, and non-ferrous metals, which contributed to the substantial increase in fund net values and investor recognition [5]. - The article notes that smaller fund companies often adopt differentiated competition strategies due to limited resources, focusing on specific niche markets to meet institutional investors' needs [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - DBS maintains a "Buy" rating on Ganfeng Lithium (01772), significantly raising the target price for H-shares from HKD 39 to HKD 83, and for A-shares from RMB 45 to RMB 92, based on a projected P/E ratio of 40 times and a 20% discount of H-shares compared to A-shares [1] Group 1 - Ganfeng Lithium is expected to achieve a net profit between RMB 1.1 billion and RMB 1.65 billion in 2025 [1] - The firm anticipates that lithium prices will remain high until mining permits are obtained for the Jiangxi lithium mine, with profitability in the lithium industry expected to rebound by 2026 [1] - The earnings per share estimate for Ganfeng Lithium has been raised to RMB 1.85 (HKD 2.07) due to increased lithium product prices and profit margins, expansion in battery and energy storage business contributions, and investment income support [1]

天齐锂业表示，得益于控股子公司锂矿定价周期缩短，旗下公司化学级锂精矿定价机制与公司锂化工产 品销售定价机制在以前年度存在的时间周期错配的影响已大幅减弱。 1月29日，天齐锂业（002466）发布2025年度业绩预告，预计将盈利3.69亿元—5.53亿元，上年同期为亏 损79.05亿元；扣除非经常性损益后净利润为2.4亿元—3.6亿元，上年同期亏损79.23亿元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with prices recovering significantly since mid-2025, leading to optimistic forecasts for the performance of lithium mining companies in 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Lithium carbonate prices have increased from 70,000 yuan/ton to around 170,000 yuan/ton since mid-2025, indicating a strong recovery [1]. - The market is characterized by tight supply and high demand expectations, with many lithium mining companies anticipating a significant improvement in their 2025 performance [1][2]. - Recent fluctuations in lithium prices are expected, with analysts predicting a wide range of price movements in the short term due to increased inventory levels among traders and strong demand from downstream markets [1][2]. Group 2: Demand Drivers - The demand for lithium carbonate is expected to remain robust, particularly driven by the strong growth in energy storage battery requirements [2]. - The adjustment of export tax rebates for battery products is anticipated to bring forward market demand to 2027, while national policies are promoting energy storage as a key focus area [2]. - By the end of 2025, new energy storage installations in China are projected to grow by 84% compared to the end of 2024, indicating a significant increase in demand [2]. Group 3: Company Performance - Several lithium companies, including Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium, expect to turn losses into profits in 2025, with projected net profits of 369 million to 553 million yuan and 1.1 billion to 1.65 billion yuan, respectively [3]. - Yahua Group anticipates a substantial increase in product sales in the latter half of 2025 due to improved market conditions and operational efficiencies [3]. - The overall order situation for many industry players, especially leading companies, remains strong, suggesting a positive outlook for the sector [3].

东吴证券研报指出，赣锋锂业25Q4业绩亮眼，扣非净利略好于预期。公司预计2025年归母净利为11.0至 16.5亿元，同比增153%~180%，其中，公司预计2025Q4归母净利润为10.7至16.2亿元，同比扭亏为盈， 环比增93%~192%。由于公司自供碳酸锂，预计26年单wh利润有望略微提升至0.02元/wh。固态方面， 公司布局固态电解质、金属锂负极、固态电池，多种技术路线布局，稳步推进。考虑到碳酸锂价格上涨 贡献弹性，展望26年，若按照碳酸锂价格15万元/吨，预计锂盐对应可贡献90亿元+利润，因此，上调公 司25-27年归母净利至14.8/94/109亿元（原预期4.3/20/32亿元），同比+172%/+532%/+16%，对应 PE103/16/14倍，考虑公司碳酸锂涨价弹性、公司固态全产业链布局，给与26年25x估值，对应目标价 112元，维持"买入"评级。 ...

1、中英双方在英国首相斯塔默访华期间达成一系列积极成果 中英双方在英国首相斯塔默访华期间达成一系列积极成果。1. 双方致力于发展中英长期稳定的全面 战略伙伴关系。2. 同意建立中英高级别气候与自然伙伴关系。3. 恢复举行中英高级别安全对话。4. 年内 举办新一轮战略对话和经济财金对话、经贸联委会会议等机制性对话。5. 原则同意恢复两国立法机构正 常交往。中方欢迎有意愿的英国议员多来中国参访，了解真实的中国。6. 举办中英企业家委员会会议， 同意进一步加强双向贸易投资合作。7. 双方欢迎成立中英金融工作组并召开首次会议。欢迎中国银行伦 敦分行成为第二家在英人民币清算行，将共同举办中英保险论坛。8. 中方积极考虑对英国公民实施单方 面免签政策。9. 中方将威士忌酒进口关税税率由10%降至5%。10. 两国领导人见证签署经贸、农食、文 化、市场监管、执法合作等领域12个政府间合作文件。11. 双方还达成了金融、卫生、传媒、教育等领 域多个合作文件。（新华社） 2、美参议院未通过政府拨款法案 当地时间1月29日，美国国会参议院就一份政府拨款法案进行表决。由于赞成票未达到足够票数， 该法案未获通过。美国联邦政府在本月底 ...