Market Analysis - On November 27, 2025, the main contract 2605 of lithium carbonate opened at 96,600 yuan/ton and closed at 95,820 yuan/ton, with a -1.68% change from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 741,463 lots, and the open interest was 507,882 lots, compared to 478,054 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis is -3,980 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 26,781 lots, a change of -269 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 90,600 - 96,000 yuan/ton, a change of 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 89,200 - 92,500 yuan/ton, a change of 450 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 1,195 US dollars/ton, a change of 10 US dollars/ton from the previous day. Downstream material factories are taking a cautious and wait - and - see attitude, and purchases are mainly for rigid demand, with light market transactions [1]. - Upstream and downstream enterprises are negotiating long - term agreements for next year, and the current focus is on the coefficient. On the supply side, the overall operating rate of lithium salt plants remains high, with lithium spodumene and salt lake being the main supply sources. It is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production in November can maintain the production level of October, with a roughly flat month - on - month change [1]. - In terms of demand, in the power market, both commercial and passenger new energy vehicles are growing rapidly; in the energy storage market, supply and demand are both booming, and supply remains tight [1]. - The Natural Resources Ministry has issued a notice on the change registration (including renewal) and license application for the non - oil and gas mining rights of the Zhenkouli in Yifeng County, Jiangxi Province - Jianxiawo Lithium Mine in Fengxin County. It is expected that the subsequent resumption of production will accelerate, but the actual resumption progress still needs to be continuously monitored [2]. - According to the latest weekly statistics, the weekly production decreased by 265 tons to 21,865 tons. The production from lithium spodumene and mica increased slightly, while the production from salt lakes decreased slightly. The weekly inventory decreased by 2,452 tons to a total of 115,968 tons. The inventory of smelters and downstream decreased, while the inventory in other links increased. The consumer side has shown good performance recently [2]. Strategy - Inventory is continuously being depleted, and consumption has certain support. Currently, the resumption of production at the mine end is in progress, and it is expected to gradually resume production in the future. There are significant differences in the consumption forecast for the first quarter. It is expected that the demand from the power battery end will decrease, while the energy storage end will remain at a high level. Attention should be paid to the extent of the weakening in the power sector [3]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to mainly wait and see in the short - term for single - side trading. There are no specific strategies for inter - period, options, cross - variety, and spot - futures trading [3].

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a slight rise today, with the metal sector leading the gains [3][4] - The major indices showed varying degrees of increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 3883.46, up 0.21% [4] - The non-ferrous metal sector saw a peak increase of nearly 2%, with several lithium mining stocks performing well [4][5] Group 2 - Active stocks included Hai Xin Food, which exhibited significant volatility, hitting the daily limit down before quickly rebounding to the limit up, showcasing a "ground-to-sky" movement [10][11] - Hai Xin Food's stock price had previously experienced a cumulative increase of over 20% in the two trading days prior [13] Group 3 - The Hong Kong market continued to show volatility, with the Hang Seng Index fluctuating around the 26,000-point mark [15] - Notable movements included a significant drop of over 30% for China Shangcheng, which had previously seen a decline of over 70% in a single trading day [14][16]

Group 1 - The A-share market for lithium mining stocks is experiencing a strong upward trend, with several companies nearing their daily price limits [1] - Major gainers include Dazhong Mining approaching the limit, Shengxin Lithium Energy rising over 8%, and Guocheng Mining, Yahua Group, and others increasing by over 5% [1] - The overall market sentiment is positive, indicated by the MACD golden cross signal formation, suggesting a favorable outlook for these stocks [2] Group 2 - Dazhong Mining has a market capitalization of 47.4 billion and has increased by 270.25% year-to-date [2] - Shengxin Lithium Energy has a market capitalization of 32.6 billion with a year-to-date increase of 158.49% [2] - Other notable companies include Guocheng Mining with a market cap of 29.4 billion and a year-to-date increase of 114.30%, and Yahua Group with a market cap of 25.7 billion and a year-to-date increase of 91.27% [2]

Report Information - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 28, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The carbonate lithium futures price rose and then fell, with the decline expanding at the end of the session, closing at 95,850. The spot price increased by 500 to 93,300. The prices of Australian ore, mica, 6F, ternary and lithium iron electrolytes, ternary materials, and lithium iron materials all increased. The short - term carbonate lithium futures price is expected to be supported by the spot price, with limited downward space, but it is difficult to break the previous high after the emotional release [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Carbonate lithium futures showed a trend of rising and then falling, with the closing price at 95,850. The spot price rose to 93,300. The prices of upstream and downstream products in the industrial chain continued to increase. The futures market has large fluctuations due to emotions, and the futures price is at a premium to the spot price. The short - term futures price is supported by the spot price, with limited downward space and difficult to break the previous high [11]. 2. Industry News - Critical Resources expanded the land holding area of its Mavis Lake project by 25% to over 400 square kilometers, strengthening its position in the emerging lithium corridor in north - western Ontario. It has identified 8 million tons of inferred mineral resources with a Li2O content of 1.07% and completed over 58,000 meters of drilling [12]. - At the 2025 Second China International Lithium Industry Conference, it was shown that the energy storage market has become the core growth pole of lithium demand. The global energy storage new - installed capacity in 2025 is expected to reach 268GWh, a year - on - year increase of 48%, with a compound growth rate of over 20% in the next decade. The carbonate lithium price has rebounded to over 90,000 yuan/ton, and the inventory days have dropped to a nearly three - year low of 32 days. The supply - demand pattern has turned to a tight balance. Some companies are accelerating the layout of solid - state batteries. The industry predicts that the global lithium demand will reach 2 million tons of carbonate lithium equivalent in 2026, and the price center may continue to rise [12][13]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley increased its stake in Ganfeng Lithium (01772) by 1,982,139 shares at a price of HKD 47.2105 per share, totaling approximately HKD 93.5778 million [1] - After the increase, Morgan Stanley's total holdings in Ganfeng Lithium amount to approximately 27,587,900 shares, representing a holding percentage of 6.18% [1]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Predictions - Morgan Stanley predicts the Federal Reserve will initiate rate cuts in December, reversing their previous forecast of a delay until January [1] - The research team led by Michael Feroli noted support for recent rate cuts from several Federal Reserve officials, particularly from New York Fed President Williams [1] - Morgan Stanley now expects two rate cuts of 25 basis points each in December and January [1] Group 2: UK Economic Outlook - Berenberg Bank indicates that the UK's fiscal space has increased, which supports the possibility of rate cuts by the Bank of England [2] - Deutsche Bank reports that the UK budget is better than expected, with fiscal buffers increasing from £10 billion to just below £22 billion, and public borrowing expected to decline [3] - BlackRock analysts believe the UK budget will boost market confidence and alleviate political concerns, with the government expanding fiscal space to £22 billion [2] Group 3: Currency and Market Reactions - Morgan Stanley has ended its bullish stance on the British pound, suggesting that the recent budget may have provided the last positive catalyst for the currency [3] - Analysts noted that the correlation between the pound and the stock market has dropped to zero, diminishing the currency's appeal [3] Group 4: Japan's Economic Policy - Fitch Ratings warns that Japan's new stimulus plan could pose risks to its credit rating if it leads to prolonged monetary easing and increased government debt [4] - The stimulus plan, amounting to approximately 3.4% of GDP, has uncertain fiscal impacts due to its reliance on non-fiscal measures and potential implementation risks [4] - Analysts from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia suggest that political factors may delay the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike until January [4] Group 5: Industry Insights - China Galaxy Securities forecasts a "bumpy" trend for the computer industry in 2025, with a focus on AI applications and the acceleration of model parity by 2026 [5] - CITIC Securities anticipates downward pressure on beef supply by 2026, with a cumulative reduction in stock exceeding 10% since 2024 [6] - CITIC Securities has raised its lithium price forecast upper limit to 120,000 yuan per ton, driven by strong demand in the energy storage battery sector [6]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley increased its stake in Ganfeng Lithium (002460)(01772) by acquiring 1,982,139 shares at a price of HKD 47.2105 per share, totaling approximately HKD 93.5778 million [1] - After the acquisition, Morgan Stanley's total shareholding in Ganfeng Lithium reached approximately 27,587,900 shares, representing a holding percentage of 6.18% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley increased its stake in Ganfeng Lithium (01772) by purchasing 1,982,139 shares at a price of HKD 47.2105 per share, totaling approximately HKD 93.5778 million, resulting in a new holding of about 27,587,900 shares, representing 6.18% ownership [1] Company Summary - Morgan Stanley's recent acquisition of shares in Ganfeng Lithium indicates a strategic investment move, reflecting confidence in the company's future performance [1] - The total amount invested by Morgan Stanley in this transaction is approximately HKD 93.5778 million, showcasing significant financial commitment [1] - Following the purchase, Morgan Stanley's total shareholding in Ganfeng Lithium has increased to approximately 27,587,900 shares, which constitutes 6.18% of the company's total shares [1] Industry Summary - The increase in stake by a major financial institution like Morgan Stanley may signal positive market sentiment towards the lithium industry, particularly in the context of growing demand for lithium in electric vehicle batteries and renewable energy storage [1]

Core Viewpoint - Yahua Group is enhancing its lithium salt production capacity and focusing on solid-state battery technology development, positioning itself as a key supplier in the global lithium market [1][2][3] Group 1: Production Capacity and Technology - Yahua Group's lithium salt comprehensive production capacity is expected to reach nearly 130,000 tons by the end of 2025, with a new 30,000-ton high-grade lithium salt production line under construction [2] - The company has achieved full-process coverage in production automation, smart manufacturing, and management information, significantly improving production efficiency and product quality [1] - Yahua Group's lithium products, including battery-grade lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate, exceed national standards and are recognized globally, serving major clients like Tesla and CATL [1] Group 2: Customer Structure and Market Position - The company's lithium business relies on long-term agreements, with over 90% of revenue coming from leading enterprises in the lithium sector, ensuring stable cooperation and deep integration into the global supply chain [1][2] - Yahua Group has established a diversified resource assurance system, combining self-controlled and purchased lithium resources to secure raw material supply for current and future production needs [2] Group 3: Solid-State Battery Development - The company is focusing on the development of solid-state battery technology, particularly the synthesis process of lithium sulfide, and has successfully developed a new gas-solid synthesis process [3] - The new process demonstrates advantages in material cost, product purity, and process controllability, with key indicators of lithium sulfide products reaching industry-leading levels [3] - Yahua Group plans to deliver samples by the end of the year and is working on the construction of a pilot production line for lithium sulfide, aiming to enter the solid-state battery industry chain by 2026 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Ganfeng Lithium experienced a significant block trade on November 27, with a transaction volume of 70,000 shares and a transaction value of 4.2889 million yuan, indicating active trading interest in the stock [1] Group 1: Trading Activity - On November 27, Ganfeng Lithium had a block trade with a transaction price of 61.27 yuan, which was equal to the closing price for the day [1] - The buyer of the block trade was Huatai Securities Co., Ltd. Beijing Yonghe Palace Securities Business Department, while the seller was an institutional proprietary account [1] - Over the past three months, Ganfeng Lithium has recorded a total of four block trades, with a cumulative transaction value of 43.2791 million yuan [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - Ganfeng Lithium's closing price on the day of the block trade was 61.27 yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.23% [1] - The stock had a turnover rate of 4.44% and a total trading volume of 3.322 billion yuan for the day [1] - In the last five days, the stock has seen a cumulative decline of 14.03%, with a total net outflow of funds amounting to 1.801 billion yuan [1] Group 3: Margin Trading Data - The latest margin financing balance for Ganfeng Lithium is 3.911 billion yuan, which has decreased by 176 million yuan over the past five days, representing a decline of 4.31% [1]